The History of Gambling - Complete Gambling History Timeline


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Baccarat: Best Bet in the House

Discuss strategies for riding trends, which casinos offer the best games, card counting for side bets, and all things baccarat.

Have you heard of Quibi? I bet you didn't despite them spending $2 Billion launching their service. Worst gamble in the history of television?

Have you heard of Quibi? I bet you didn't despite them spending $2 Billion launching their service. Worst gamble in the history of television? submitted by acid_rogue to imdbvg [link] [comments]

Want a book on the history of sports betting/gambling

Hey all, with the Super Bowl coming up this weekend, was interested in any good books on the history of sports betting.
Haven't found any definitive recommendation through Google, wondering if you guys had any thoughts. Thanks!
submitted by TheLatestBurner to suggestmeabook [link] [comments]

Man with a history of filing baseless complaints has his "utterly frivolous" lawsuit claiming that USA Today ruined his illegal jailhouse gambling operation by deciding to stop publishing Las Vegas betting odds thrown out

Man with a history of filing baseless complaints has his submitted by farklinkbot to fark [link] [comments]

[WP]An engineer with a gambling addiction builds a time machine. He wants to go back in time and leverage his knowledge of the future to win bets. His sub-par knowledge of history prevents him from winning anything.

submitted by mrjlodge12 to WritingPrompts [link] [comments]

Gambling Cavemen. A Brief History of The Origins of Betting

submitted by RebelPunt to sports [link] [comments]

That time Pete Rozelle bet on football: a short history of the NFL's anti-gambling stance

submitted by fiendzone to nfl [link] [comments]

DKNG - Fundamental DD Inside - DKNG

This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here.
DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino
The Big Picture
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average.
Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this:
Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here.
Digging Deeper
DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack.
For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range.
This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later.
Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform.
So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino.
As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform.
Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino.
Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis
Things to look for when going Long
- Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized
- Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability
- Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
Share Price Target
Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73
Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10
Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47
These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base.
At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs.
Share Price drivers / considerations:
- Continued multiple expansion
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
Management Team
Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards.
His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around.
Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys.
Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward.
If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level.

[1] Susquehanna Research – U.S. Online Gambling 6/27/19
[4] Goldman Sachs Research – DKNG Initiation 5/19/20
submitted by IAMB4TMAN to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Don't be an idiot - A newbies guide for newbies

Whenever I'm about to buy retarded FDs, I think, would an idiot do that? And if they would, I do not do that thing - (Dwight Schrute) and Also Every WSB autist before reloading their broker account with funds for the 69th time after making a YOLO brokerino play thinking that they would not do it again.
I usually post stuff like this when I see retards talking about their plays in the daily threads, plays that no one should be making, EVER.
I posted a comment in the daily thread this morning that received little attention, lot of comments suggesting I reduce my adderral/meth/coke intake and a few DMs asking me to convert it to a post. So here we are.
TLDR; Don't listen to me, I'm an autist who's been trading options for 5 months; Up 177% in March, Down 22% in April - stubbornly bag holding SPY 5/15 220p for a month before finally letting go (I know) - currently down 7% All-time.
For what it's worth, I'm under the illusion that I have a few tips to share and hopefully help some people here because I'm fairly certain most of you dipshits are more retarded than me and don't yet realize that you're playing a losing battle. So let's begin.


1. Closing Positions (Consistent locked gains >>>> bag holding with hopes of a 10 bagger)
  • Every morning there are a huge number of retards asking Up Bigly on $TICKER pre-market *rocket emoji* *penis emoji* , should I sell at open or hold? If you're one of them, I want you to do two things -
  • First, take a look at your All-time performance. For most of you, this should be enough to snap you back to reality and answer the question whether you need to lock these fucking gains for the sake of your portfolio or bag hold in hopes of a 10 bagger with a risk of being wiped out.
  • Second, remind yourself that we are in the middle of a fucking pandemic, with multiple countries possibly heading into recession, and you're trading in this absolute shit show of a market that is waiting for a single bad news to drop dead, and yeah lets not forget about a possible trade war brewing on the side.
  • Personally, I lock in gains when I'm up over 40% on a play, which in this retarded market is not hard to find and look for a re-entry with increased capital.
  • Don't be stubborn like I was and hold bad positions for too long, if you made a 2k investment on a few SPY contracts and it dips beyond 30%, either open a small hedge position or close your positions and take a one day break to reset. 1.4k capital in hand is way better than a full 2k loss.
  • It's your money, you're free to YOLO and diamond hands with dreams of catching a 10 bagger, but for the sake of your peace of mind please don't. I'm fucking sick of looking at all the loss porn from blown up accounts in our subreddit. This is coming from someone who went from +177% to -22% in three weeks. It is absolutely fucking brutal.
2. Gambling YOLO FDs on current market trend (Dumb fucking bulls, this one is for you)
  • I consider buying current market trend FDs (SPY had a +2% day and you're buying more calls betting in the direction of the current market trend) as a YOLO.
  • Buying more calls is a YOLO because you’re purchasing inflated option contracts with a gamble that it climbs further. So be wary before placing a bet because it can be wiped off very quickly if shit hits the fan.
  • So many people don’t know this but VIX(VXX/UVXY) calls are an amazing hedge when you YOLO into SPY calls during rallies like a retard. Surprise intra-day dumps (like the one that happened today and one day past week) will fuck with your peace of mind and force you to panic sell if you don’t have insurance(VIX Calls) - having VIX calls will keep you in the game longer and they’re a fuckton cheaper than SPY contracts.
  • Even worse, if the dump rolls over to the next day and you couldn't close your calls waiting for a EOD pump - your hedge will keep you solvent and might even make bank depending on how it plays out.
3. Buying FDs against current market trend (Fellow bear brothers, this one is for you)
  • As opposed to current market trend FDs, options that reverse the current market trend should never be a YOLO. You should be fucking building a position slowly that is resilient to small market movements (Newbies, this means that if the current market trend is uppies - you should be buying shorts at least 2 weeks or a month out so that you don't get cucked by Greeks if the rally continues for a few days).
  • Let’s say SPY has been rallying for days in a row and weekly SPY puts have become dirt cheap. I know a lot of you autists will fucking YOLO into weekly puts and then bitch about how the market is fucking retarded when the rally continues and your puts end up toast.
  • It’s fair to be agitated but it’s better to be smart and build a monthly put position slowly averaging in depending on how the market is behaving.
  • You can be even smarter and get a few slightly OTM weekly calls (weekly calls that are +5/7$ above current stock price are dirt fucking cheap for SPY) to hedge against the loss that your PUT position will be bleeding in the long run if the rally continues and give you a decent chance to exit with a minimal loss if you feel the play is no longer aimed at a feasible strike price and allow you to roll-over to a better strike price.
4. Maintaining your sanity (saved the best one for last)
  • I was(??) a very emotional trader, the rush when you're trading naked Tesla FDs and making tendies is beyond fucking amazing. But I realized I'm becoming fucking desensitized to profits. When I went up from 150% to 177% just rinse repeating buying SPY puts I barely felt anything (market was in super fucking easy mode in March). My friends went fucking crazy and were really happy for me but I wasn't feeling anything inside, like yeah, whatever.
  • As I dropped down to -22%, I realized both profits and losses can make you desensitized. There were times where I would be thinking about the market all day, watching futures all night like a fucking degenerate and barely sleep 4hours a day except for weekends.
  • If there is one piece of advice that I really wish for you autistic fucks to pick up from this post is this: LEARN TO FUCKING ENJOY THE GAINS YOU MAKE BEFORE YOU FUCKING YOLO IT BACK INTO THE MARKET YOU GREEDY FUCKING BASTARDS.  
  • I was up 8K during yesterdays rally. After closing my calls yesterday, for the first time, I transferred some money back in to my bank account (holy fucking shit, can you imagine that this move also exists?) and it felt sooooooo fucking good. Never thought of doing this when I was up bigly in March.
  • Also purchased a bunch of stuff that I've been wanting to buy for a long time but kept delaying because it didn't make sense to buy expensive materialistic goods during a pandemic but my brain is OK with me gambling on expensive option contracts? Fucking unreal.
  • I'm not saying buying material possessions are a gateway to happiness but I know all you dopamine whores are exactly like me. You fucks would think twice or thrice before buying a new hoodie/sneakers/expensive earphones or whatever shit you're into but will willingly fucking YOLO your gains into a new play in a heartbeat like true autists, before doing something that you enjoy with that money and end up losing it all. It's beyond fucking crazy.
  • In closing, I want to remind you guys that there is no point in being hard on yourself when you're making bad plays and getting too cocky when you're making tendies. Try to learn from bad plays, read about different options strategies, relax and fucking enjoy the tendies once in a while, that's what makes us human after-all.
  • Tyler Durden said it best:
    Man, I see in WSB the autistic and gayest men who've ever lived. I see all this potential, and I see it squandered. God damn it, an entire generation buying YOLO FDs, bag holding dumb plays without locking profits – retards with -99% portfolios. Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don't need. We're the middle children of history, man. No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Our great war is a spiritual war. Our great depression is our lives. We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars, but we won't. We're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, very pissed off.
Alright folks, sensei out. Good luck to everyone, lets get them tendies without losing ourselves in the process.
If this post doesn't get removed, mods can I get a flair replacement? I'd like WSB Tyler Durden Wannabe or Dopamine Whore.
submitted by pervsensei11 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

TSLA 1500c 7/10s - The Epic Story of DIAMOND HANDS and CONVICTION!

TSLA 1500c 7/10s - The Epic Story of DIAMOND HANDS and CONVICTION!
Alright autists, sit down for some more TSLA story time. If you've been following my posts on BABA gains, TSLA gains, AMZN gains, sit down because you're about to get your fucking minds blown.
To date, my portfolio is up +4m.
Today's chart on RH
3 month chart on RH (same as all times).
TDA portfolio. Only have BABA 300c Jan 21s open
Total starting investment: RH: 885k TDA: 1.75m Total: 2.65m
Where do I get my starting capital? Haters will say mommy and daddy gave it to me to gamble, but I got it through years of blood, sweat, tears and constant ups and downs of failing and persisting. I own several businesses, e-commerce and cosmetics manufacturing with my family. I joined this casino after seeing someone posted their AMZN gains and I dove in head first with no retard helmet on 4/20. BIBLICAL date to start my autism journey with you retards.
Last week before 4th July week, my portfolio was down a total of -1.7m and TSLA gains brought me back to life. Read it here if you haven't -

Now... here's the story of the most epic come back of all FDs. I jumped into TSLA 1500c 7/10s WAYY too early this week. Eventually held 1530 contracts at average $10 cost, for total of 1.5m total. I was -99% on these and held them like a stubborn autist.
I fucking BELIEVED that TSLA will pull off some crazy shit again and blast thru 1500 by end of today. It coiled all day at $1412, surely the big boys and algo will come in after lunch. And what happened at 1pm? Pure fucking excitement and epic buying. Everybody and their fucking grandmas were buying TSLA OTM calls. Just like Daddy Elon blessed us with his tweet back in May, he's done it again and again. NEVER. BET. AGAINST. ELON.
In minutes, I went from -99% to positive net and in pure euphoric panic I sold all my positions at $7-12 to break even I think.
We thought TSLA was done at $1495... but no... she fucking rested and came back for MORE.
If I had held on to my position thru the end, it would've been 4.5x. From 1.5m to 6m~
While I am truly grateful I made an epic come back, I'm speechless and learned a valuable lesson here. To take back some cost but let the rest ride out on big rallies and momentum.
My sell history. It doesn't have all my buys from earlier this week. But eventually I averaged the fuck down like a retard to $10. Was very tempted to buy more when it was at $0.30. This is the most retarded thing to do and I will never do it again (until Monday) and don't suggest anyone try this at all.
All in all, a great week and I'm forever grateful for the momo trading crew (love you autists). If your portfolio is down, keep believing and never give up seriously. Yeah it sounds like some law of attraction bull shit. But if you constantly observe the patterns, in the market, in your trading style and constantly refine your process and find what works for you... You can do it.
Looking forward to all the comments that my portfolio will blow up next week. Bring it on retards.From -1.7m to +1.1m to +1.8m to +3m to +4m in a week. I am definitely not letting these big wins get to my head, and as of today I am mostly all cash and will be starting Monday fresh and a little less retarded on the FDs.
Stay safe everyone.
PS. Elon reads wsb and will give us gold. Believe it.
Positions: TSLA 1600c 7/17
PPS. Fuck you TSLA bears, get rekt lmfaooooooo
submitted by TU_NYCE to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

CMV: Gambling commercials should be treated the same way as tobacco or alcohol commercials

Gambling (be it sports betting, casinos, trading with high leverage) is addictive. It does not represent a direct danger to someones health but it can ruin it's life as fast as (or even faster then) cigarettes or alcohol.
Now you might say: Sugar is addictive and can destroy your life too. What should we do? Ban sweets commercials? I think you can control way easier how much sugar you eat then how much you gamble.
When you start gambling what you do is lie to yourself that you found a way to trick the system, you found a pattern, and you develop a strategy that OF COURSE can NOT predict the future. And you lose money and then you lie again to yourself thinking that you discovered what you did wrong, and then you proceed to try to win the money you lost. Most of the times you lose again and you continue in this vicious circle.
The thing is that I'm not an expert in psychology, I'm just one of the people that are addicted to gambling and it pisses me off when I see commercials at TV or Facebook and so on. In fact, Facebook ads pisses me off more then anything, because they are based on my browsing history and it does not matter that I try to quit and I closed all of my accounts, they keep show me those damn ads.
submitted by done8989 to changemyview [link] [comments]

Unleashed pt. 21

Another chapter from u/eruwenn and myself.
First / Prev / Next
Aaron couldn’t help but be a little underwhelmed by the star port. When he had been told about a large space station that served as a central hub for the entire system he was expecting some bizarre bazaar of goods from every corner of the galaxy. What he found was a joyless jumble of bulk traders, hauliers offices and bars. This wasn’t the Azrimad with its prestigious shops and expensive cafes; this was a place for work. As they walked further along, the occasional gambling house or unique vendor would crop up, and Aaron spotted a couple of places that might be worth a second look. An Arkellian souvenir shop looked the most interesting thus far. They had various ceremonial outfits and cultural items from throughout their history, and he thought he could find a fun gift for Alexa there.
A few people paid attention to the pair in the Gal. Fed. uniforms, but not many noticed Aaron. Without Sassie he was just another biped, a less common colour but hardly remarkable. On board the Azrimad he'd become accustomed to the constant glances. It was nice to blend in, and he was enjoying the anonymity.
The high-pitched scream caused the whole thoroughfare to fall silent. Aaron spun around and saw a young Arkellian girl in oversized overalls pointing at him. “It’s really you!” she exclaimed; people were staring and Aaron was definitely being noticed now. The young girl grabbed the front of her overalls and tore them open to reveal a pale blue Cupcake Coalition t-shirt. “The first human. You’re him right?” She walked forward excitedly while clutching her hands to her chest, eyes wide.
The crowd, realising this wasn’t going to turn into street theatre, quickly lost interest and the background chatter returned. Aaron let out a short laugh of relief and waved. “Hi there. Nice shirt.”
Clak’Soon took his hand from his sidearm and Ha’Mon stepped out from behind the J’Rami. He was about to speak when the young Arkellian began gushing. “I couldn’t go to the march but I watched from my dad’s hauler. Where’s Sassie? I buy cupcakes every cycle and I have three t-shirts and a hat. My dad says I can get a Sassie onesie if I do well at school! Where is Alexa? Did you invent cupcakes? I watch all your videos, I subscribed when you only had four videos, and only three thousand followers. I decided to make my own channel too, and so far I've made six videos and gained twelve followers. Oh, oh, oh!” She was dancing from foot to foot. “Will you be on my channel? Please!”
She’d spoken quickly and even though she’d stopped it still took a moment for them to process everything she’d said. Clak’Soon and Ha’mon both looked to Aaron – his fan, his problem. Aaron took a knee, bringing himself down to the girl’s eyeline. “First, please don’t eat a cupcake everyday. They’re treats, so space them out. Sassie and Alexa are packing up our belongings because we’re going on an adventure.” He paused as he tried to remember everything she’d said. “Oh, I didn’t invent cupcakes, just adapted a recipe from home. But,” -he leaned forward a little and whispered- “we managed to make safe chocolate chips, mostly.” As he said this next word he spread his hands like he was creating a rainbow in front of his face. “Cookies.”
“OOooooooooh!” Her little dance became even more energetic, then she stopped as a puzzled look appeared on her face. “What’s a cookie?”
Aaron’s laughter rang out and he stood up. “Don’t worry, they’re being approved in the next day or so. Do you have your camera?”
“No.” She looked at her feet, and with sadness in her voice and the beginnings of tears in her eyes as if remembering some great trauma, she replied, “I’m not allowed to take it off the shuttle, after I lost my first one.”
Aaron saw that she was getting upset and tried to make her feel more at ease. “Don’t worry about it, I lose stuff all the time. I lost my whole planet!”
Her head lifted with a bright smile and she laughed. “I can run and ask my big sister to borrow hers.”
Aaron was pleased he had cheered her up, but the constant shuffling of his companions reminded him they had somewhere to be. “We have an important meeting to get to. If you see us later we can do it then, ok?” She nodded. “What’s your name?”
She paused and in a conflicted tone replied, “Dad says, I’m not supposed to tell strangers.” Realisation struck her and, once again, her smile vanished. ”Dad says, I’m not supposed to talk to strangers.”
Attempting to head off another emotional roller coaster, Ha’Mon was quick on the rescue. “How about you bring your big sister? Then we can introduce ourselves and not be strangers.”
It took a moment for her to think it through, then her face once more erupted in a smile and her excited dance started again. “I’ll go ask her.” She didn’t even wait for a reply before she dashed off into the crowd.
A large hairy J’Rami hand pulled Aaron upwards. “We’re late.”
The shops they passed were now a blur. They had to increase their pace to a brisk walk, and as a result had to focus on not bumping into people as they hurried along. The Engineer’s Pit was hard to miss. Who needs a sign with a smell so pervasively unique? It was a scent with layers. Beyond the sweat, vomit and stale drink he caught the faint aroma of wet fur, grease and smoke. Aaron caught a brief glimpse of the frontage before they turned off down the Junak Arm, and the descriptor 'dunghole' seemed to be generous. He had no doubt that the floor within would be sticky with substances he didn't want to imagine.
The arm that extended away from the Pit was clearly a recent addition, cleaner and brighter although still not a patch on the Azrimad. There were less stores, and no cafes or bars, simply a multitude of offices and what looked like warehouses attached to docking ports. Xii’Nok Wholesalers was just along from Xii’Nok Industries, and a little farther they passed Xii’Nok Construction. Finally they reached Xii’Nok’s Used Ships.
An Arkellian in a smart, white suit was standing out front. He looked agitated, but as they drew closer his smile brightened and he rushed forward. “Ambassador Cooper!” He regarded the others, noting that neither was an officer. “And his loyal Galactic Federation assistants. Welcome, welcome, welcome. I am Lek Xii’Nok, please call me Lek, I’m sure we’re going to be great friends.” His handshake became a guiding arm on Aaron’s shoulder as he led him swiftly inside, leaving the others to trail behind.
Aaron looked helplessly back over his shoulder as he was corralled into a seat. “Nice to meet you, Lek. Please call me Aaron.”
Lek bowed deeply. “Thank you, Ambassador Aaron.” He stood and quickly clapped twice; the lights dimmed and a soft spotlight fell on Lek, while relaxing music began playing from hidden speakers. “I understand you are here for an extra-system ship. A first contact in my home system that wants to venture forth. It's a beautiful moment for our two species.” He seemed to choke up momentarily. “That you would choose my shipyard to find your vessel, your new home amongst the stars. I am honoured.” Another bow, and this time he raised his head to give Ha’Mon and Clak’Soon an irritated glance as they found their seats either side of the human.
This was not exactly what Aaron had expected. It seemed more than a little theatrical for a simple sales pitch. “So...” He cleared his throat. “As we mentioned in our call, we don’t have much time. I’d like to see the ships as quickly as possible.”
“Absolutely,” He quickly pulled a controller from his pocket and began clicking buttons. A large holo-display appeared in front of them with Lek’s face appearing as a logo, glowing brightly and smiling at them. “I always admire those with a decisive disposition. I have seen the footage and know that you are a man of action as well. Here I have selected an exceptional ship.” He clicked a button, with a flourish, and the hologram head became a large sleek ship. “This is a vessel befitting an Ambassador-”
“Bollocks!” Clak’Soon yelled out, “The Keflox series are all looks and no oomph!”
Ha’Mon was mortified by Clak’Soon’s rudeness but he had to agree. “It is true Aaron, and the repair costs are excessive due to their abundance of non-standard parts.”
Lek’s mouth opened and shut as he tried to recover his composure. Before he could, the human spoke. “Next.”
“Yes. Of course.” Lek fumbled, recovered, and performed another overly flamboyant click. The ship dissolved to be replaced by a smaller, more rounded ship. “This is-”
“Bah!” Clak’Soon called out immediately. “Kasurian? No offence Ha’Mon, old pal. You guys make some fast racers, but the human can’t go around in a Kasurian ship. Do you know how often people try to kill him?”
Lek blinked, looking from Clak'Soon to Aaron to Ha'Mon. Before he could say a word, the Kasurian spoke up instead. “It’s true. Half the people he meets try to kill him.”
Aaron, slightly offended, quickly turned defensive. “I wouldn’t say half.”
The large J’Rami stood and took the controller from Lek’s hand. “Let’s see if you have anything good.” He began clicking and ships, shuttles and tankers started whizzing past, the security officer oblivious to the outrage on Lek’s face.
Ha’Mon jumped up and joined his friend. “I have it narrowed down already. He has all the ships listed on his portal. Stop clicking so fast!”
Clak'Soon and Ha'Mon spoke in rapidfire shorthand, something they had clearly developed over a long friendship. Aaron couldn't follow a word of it, and instead watched the small Kasurian engineer. He darted this way and that, repeatedly trying – and failing – to obtain the controller.
Lekfinally stood still, admitting defeat. He was clearly not happy that his slick presentation was ruined, and after a moment's contemplation more he rushed out of the room. “Somebody help! Security!”
Aaron watched him leave, and a moment of worry passed over him as quickly as the ships flashed past his eyes. If they could find a ship he was fairly certain the salesman would forget about any inconvenience they had caused. The barrage of images slowed to a halt, revealing only three ships on display. Aaron stood and walked towards them, pointing out. "You know, you could have just asked him." Clak'Soon shrugged, but at least Ha'Mon had the decency to look ashamed. "So... what are my options?"
The J’Rami and Kasurian looked at each other, then came to an unspoken agreement. Ha’Mon began. “Not good. If you were looking to haul cargo, then you’d have a better selection.”
The human shook his head. “I don’t need something that big.”
“Well not much else makes it this far out,” Ha’Mon continued. “We do have three that might work.” He pointed to the first ship and Aaron could tell it was Fae’Dan. Such a predictable style. “This is a Calarel series, functional and reliable. Your crystal life will be good, but in system you’re going to be pretty defenseless if you get into a fight-”
“If? Hah!” Clak’Soon interrupted. “The only thing it’s good for in a fight is a swift surrender. No good for a human.”
Aaron wanted to argue, but his track record was decisively against him. “Ok, that’s fair. But, fighting isn’t really the plan, remember?”
Ha’Mon looked at Aaron seriously. “My people call you Lefu’Yendra. You know what that means?”
Aaron was well aware, as he'd asked Agent Fenink about it. “Walking Death. Or, so I’ve been told.”
Ha’Mon nodded, fixing the human with a fierce stare. When he spoke, it was cautious, hushed, as if he were reciting from a holy text. “It is more than just a name. Where you walk, Death is summoned. Like the Leokas, the great servant of Death, it is drawn to you. Others will cross your path, some as friend and some as foe. You will never know peace.”
Aaron wasn’t superstitious, but the Kasurian’s intense glare was a little disconcerting. The dim lighting and strange background music wasn’t helping, and for a moment he was caught in the spell. Luckily, Clak’Soon was there to shatter it. “Stop being weird Hammy. Next ship.”
Ha’Mon snapped out of it and immediately returned to his presentation. “So our next option is Clak’Soon’s choice. Honestly, I have no idea how Lek got his hands on this. It’s a Rinoxian hazardous materials transport.”
Eyebrows raised, Aaron looked at the space Volvo. “Alright, you got my attention.”
Hooting excitedly, Clak'Soon took over. “Blast proof -”
“From the inside.” Ha’Mon said quietly.
“- Industrial, max grade, atmospheric scrubbers -” Clak’Soon wasn’t deterred.
“That sometimes removes the oxygen as well.”
“- Emergency cargo hold separation -”
“Which has a zero point five percent chance of auto-activating due to faulty sensors, jettisoning your cargo into space. Rinoxians aren’t known for reliability.”
“Hey!” Clak’Soon, growing louder, had had enough. “You don’t like it? The human can fly this thing straight through another ship and he’ll probably be fine!”
Ha’Mon yelled back, “You could never get close enough to ram another ship, those things are slower than… than… Slo!”
“STOP!” The human silenced them both instantly. “I get it. Tough, but slow, and it might break or kill us. Let’s see what’s behind door number three.”
They gave him a puzzled look before dismissing it as a human thing. Ha’Mon moved to stand beside the third option. “This is a Niham design, a basic hauler, but it does have a good size hold and space for four shuttles on board. It’s an Argo class, ten crew cabins and the captain’s quarters, a bit smaller than the others.” Ha’Mon stopped talking, the human was standing transfixed, looking at the Niham ship with a smile.
Aaron rubbed his hands together. “You had me at Argo.”
Clak’Soon gave him a puzzled look. “You’re a fan of farm animals?”
The J’Rami explained, “Argo is an animal on Niham, the meat is very versatile. Like the ship.”
Understanding dawning, of course it wasn’t an epic greek reference, the ship was basically a space pig. “Ahh. On my world Argo means something else.” He stood and waited, but they didn’t say anything more. “I’m waiting for the downside. What’s wrong with it?”
Clak’Soon shrugged, and with his large shoulders it was an impressive feat. “They’re boring.”
Ha’Mon’s head bobbed from side to side as he sort of agreed and disagreed. “They aren’t boring, they’re average. This one isn’t currently working; a few parts need replacing and there’s some damage to repair. It’s salvage. Raiders killed the crew and someone brought it in and sold it to Lek. Money gets split between the families of the survivors and the salvage crew. It’s already been cleaned, so no blood at least.” He gave a little shudder. “A couple of cycles and a good team, it’ll be fine.”
A little annoyance tinged the human’s reply. “I don’t have a bicycle.”
The J’Rami let Aaron’s strange phrasing slide over him and applied his superior logic. “Use a bigger crew.”
The Kasurian engineer looked furious, opened his mouth to argue, and then stopped. “That might work, actually. There are always engineers and ship hands hanging around these places, waiting for someone to take them on. But we still need parts, and somewhere to work.”
Aaron clapped his hands together, startling the others. “It’s a plan. Let’s find Lek; he should be back soon with security. He has to know someone who sells parts.”
They walked outside to find Lek leaning against the wall. “Made your decision then?”
Aaron looked around. “No security?”
Lek laughed. “Tulseria’s balls, no. I’ve dealt with their kind before.” He gestured to the Gal. Fed. duo. “Know every ship inside and out, and have strong opinions on all of them. Bah, I have no chance. All they’ll do is criticise my choices to prove they know more than me.”
Aaron gave a single nod of agreement. “We’ve chosen a ship.”
“Of course you have! I said you were decisive, didn’t I?” Lek stood up straight and with a cheerful voice asked, “Which one? I’ll bet it’s the Rinoxian ship, hard to find one like that. You can keep those Inorganics in the secure hold. If they try anything funny” -he made a gesture with his hands indicating separation- “just shoot them into space and protect the real people.”
Aaron's smile stayed in place but his eyes grew cold as he replied, “It’s the Argo.”
Lek was a savvy businessman and could read people well. Something had changed in the human, and it was not a pleasant change. “Fine ship, good choice. You are aware it needs some repair work? I have it docked on a lower arm awaiting repairs. If you give me three cycles I’ll have it in a condition worthy of an Ambassador, four if you want any big alterations. Once we have the details finalised I can work on a price. Of course, as the ship was salvaged, you will need to register it again.”
Aaron shook his head. “I don’t have that kind of time. Give me a price now, as it sits. I’ll hire my own repair team and buy the parts myself to speed things up.”
Momentarily flummoxed, Lek was quick to rebound. “I have already hired a crew, they won’t be happy to lose out on three cycles of work.”
A large J’Rami shadow fell across Lek. “Humans can be very persuasive.”
Lek swallowed hard, recalling the video feed of the incident on Arkellis. “Fine. I was planning on selling that ship, once repaired, for over a million credits.”
Clak’Soon scoffed. “You can buy a new one for that much!”
With a smile Lek countered, “Maybe on Niham, but this is the fringe, my friend.”
Aaron let out a long sigh. “Look. I don’t have time for this. How about we do the short version? I counter with half that, as the thing’s busted and I’m paying to fix it. You say nine hundred thousand because you’re an asshole, and I say six because I’m a bigger asshole. I say, I won’t pay over seven hundred. You’re trying to squeeze me so you’re going to say eight hundred, probably adding ‘it’s only this cheap because you like me’ or some other utter shite.”
Lek was growing to like the human, he was exciting. “So we will both settle at seven hundred and fifty thousand credits. Yes?”
“No.” Aaron leaned in close. “Remember, I’m the bigger asshole. Seven hundred, because I’m going to register this ship as an Earth vessel. Same as the K7. No sales tax or fees. Special Ambassador discount.”
The Arkellian’s mind buzzed with possibilities. Was this legal? Probably not. Would anyone ask? Probably not. He always looked into new clients, especially those planning to spend a great deal. From what he’d seen and heard regarding the human, he was a walking loophole. Registration fees and sales tax could be anywhere from ten to thirty percent, depending on the world, and that’s if they even accepted your application. “Done.”
Ha’Mon elbowed Aaron in the hip. “We also need the use of his repair station.”
Aaron cracked his knuckles. “I’ll pay you twenty thousand credits for one cycle at the repair station. I’ll cover parts you supply, at cost plus five percent, and I’ll add five percent to the price if you help us get it done by morning.”
Negotiations were a reflex for Lek, and he barely skipped a beat. “Ten percent on both.”
The Arkellian salesman began walking them back down the arm. “Your ship is at the repair station on the Himbak Arm. Drones, lifters, everything is there along with the team I hired. Dismiss them or hire them, it’s your problem now. You need more, try the Engineer’s Pit. I’d tell most people to avoid it but...” He looked at Aaron and then Clak’Soon, and an unpleasant grin spread across his face. “Some of them deserve your kind’s attention.”
Clak’Soon laughed, still proud that Aaron was descended from an ape-like species in a similar way to himself. “No one will mess with the primates!”
The human slapped the large J’Rami on the back. It was nice that he thought of him as one of his own. “Apes together strong.” He was going along with things right now, but he wasn’t a tool to be pointed at people Lek didn’t like. He was still harboring a grudge that the Arkellian had said Alexa wasn’t a real person. “Alright, that’s workers. What about parts?”
The Arkellian looked genuinely angry, furious even. “Go see that miserly Doytaran, Essad Hoy, two decks down from the repair station and a quarter turn spinward. The crew I hired are preparing a list of what they will need.”
The thinly-veiled hostility intrigued Aaron. “Something I should know?”
Lek looked uncomfortable and avoided Aaron’s gaze. “Business disputes, and some personal grievances, ha. I’m a businessman and I look out for my interests. He doesn’t like that. Let’s get the paperwork out of the way; tiks are credits, as they say.”
With a hefty bonus on the line the paperwork was processed remarkably quickly, helped along by the lack of requirements from the planet of registration. There was a lot more documentation for the extra-system ship, more regulations and protocols to be observed. Aaron hadn’t realised that he would get to rename the ship. Shuttles weren’t named but the larger ships were. He realised it made sense, as you had to distinguish between ships of the same class. The planet you registered with usually had naming rules, or a process to automatically assign a designation.
Aaron marched from Lek’s office, a man on a mission, head held high and mind racing with the task ahead. Ha’Mon had to scamper to keep up and even Clak’Soon with his long legs was breathing heavily from the pace. The human came to a sudden halt before the Engineer’s Pit and turned to the others. He tapped his ear piece, wanting Slo to hear this as well. Once he had confirmed the Jaimsmae was listening he began. “First, I want to thank you guys for coming to help me choose a ship. It was a huge help. As far as I’m concerned, you’ve done me a big favour already. You never agreed to this next part. So, right here, I’m giving you the chance to walk away, no hard feelings. ”
A large hand covered in orange fur rested on Aaron’s shoulder, and a large face with a toothy grin looked down at him. “You know nothing about ships. You need us. Anyway, this is the most fun I’ve had since I joined the security team. Shuttle bay guard is not as exciting as it sounds, you know? I’m with you.”
Ha’Mon looked less enthusiastic but just as determined. “We’ll get your ship ready if I have to do the repairs myself.” Aaron delivered a gentle punch to the Kasurian’s shoulder.
They all waited for Slo’s answer. “So you found a ship?”
“He’s in.” Clak’soon slapped his hands together as he had seen the human do. It was surprisingly satisfying, he decided as he turned to Aaron. “Time to do things your way.”
With a look of mild confusion Ha’Mon asked, “What is the human way?”
Aaron gave a broad grin. “It’s like the wrong way, but faster.” With that he leaned back, raised his right leg and kicked open the double doors to the Engineer’s Pit.
submitted by Sooperdude24 to HFY [link] [comments]

15 NBA players have been murdered.

Not all at once, I mean in the history of the NBA total. Here's the full list with bios and details. Let me know if I missed anyone! Sorry if this is too dark:
  1. Lorenzen Wright (1975-2010): Wright played in the NBA from 1996 to 2009, best known as a member of the Grizzlies, Clippers, and Hawks. He went missing in July 2010; his body was found over a week later in the nearby woods of Tennessee. A 911 call had been made from his cell phone, connecting with a dispatcher before 11 gunshots were heard. However, the dispatcher failed to report the call to his supervisor. In 2017, the gun believe to have killed Wright was discovered in a lake in Mississippi. Billy Turner was arrested in connection with the murder along his fellow church member Sherra Wright-Robinson---Lorenzen's widow. Likely motivated by her husband's $1M life insurance policy, Sherra was ultimately sentenced to 30 years in prison. Turner still awaits trial. Eerily, Wright's father (a former Memphis policeman) was also the victim of gun violence, having been paralyzed by a shot to the back when Lorenzen was 7 years old.
  2. Joe Fulks (1921-1976): HOFer Joe Fulks played his entire career with the Philadelphia Warriors between 1946 and 1954. He earned 2 All-Star selections, 4 All-NBA/BAA honors, won a ring in 1947, and led the league in scoring (23.2 PPG) the same year. Fulks set and broke the BAA/NBA single-game scoring record 4 times, culminating with a career high 63 points in 1949--a record that stood for over a decade before being lost to Elgin Baylor. Fulks also served with the Marines in World War II and later became the recreational director of the Kentucky State Penitentiary following retirement. In 1976, he was shot and killed by his girlfriend's son, Gregg Banister, during an argument over a handgun.
  3. Howard Porter (1948-2007): Porter played for the Pistons, among other NBA teams, from 1971 to 1978. As a collegiate player, he led Villanova to the NCAA Championship Game vs. UCLA, where he was named Most Outstanding Player; however, this title was stripped as he had already signed a professional contract with the ABA's Pittsburgh Condors. Following an NBA career plagued by addiction, Porter worked as a probation officer in Minneapolis for over a decade. In 2007, his badly beaten body was discovered in an alley. Police arrested a 33-year-old woman in connection with the crime, though she was released due to insufficient evidence. Rashad Arthur Raleigh was later arrested for Porter's murder and is currently serving a life sentence.
  4. Bison Dele (1969-2002): A career journeyman, Dele (born Brian Carson Williams) played his best seasons between 1995 and 1998 as a member of the Pistons, Clippers, and Bulls. He eventually won a ring alongside Michael Jordan in 1997 and allegedly dated Madonna before abruptly retiring in in 1999. An avid traveler and sailor, Dele set out from Tahiti on his boat, the Hakuna Matata, on July 6, 2002, along with his girlfriend Serena Karlan, his brother Miles Dabord, and skipper Bertrand Saldo. Two weeks later, Dabord returned from sea alone. Following a sting operation, Dabord was detained by police; it was soon discovered that he had forged his brother's signature to buy $152,000 of gold, while the Hakuna Matata had been re-registered in Tahiti with patched bullet holes. Dabord claimed that a fight between he and his brother resulted in Karlan hitting her head on the boat; when the skipper insisted on reporting her death, Bison killed the man, followed by Dabord shooting his brother in self defense. Fearing prison, Dabord intentionally overdosed on insulin, slipping into a fatal coma. Dele's body is assumed to have been thrown overboard in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
  5. George Trapp (1948-2002): Trapp played for the Pistons and Hawks from 1971 to 1977; his brother John earned a ring with the Lakers in 1972. Following an argument with his roommate, Jerome Miller, Trapp allegedly struck Miller with an ashtray, leading Miller to fatally stab Trapp in the abdomen. While Trapp underwent successful surgery, the wound became infected, resulting in pneumonia and death.
  6. Reggie Harding (1942-1972): Another Detroit Piston, Harding played in the NBA from 1963 to 1968 after becoming the first NBA draft selection without prior college experience. By all accounts, Harding was not a great guy: He allegedly carried a gun in his gym bag, playfully shot at teammates, robbed gas stations, became involved with drugs, and was eventually suspended by the NBA for the entire 1965-66 season. Worse, future Supremes singer Florence Ballard claimed Harding raped her at knifepoint in 1960. In 1972, Harding was gunned down at a Detroit intersection; while the case was never solved, it's safe to say Harding had no shortage of enemies.
  7. Anthony Roberts (1955-1997): Roberts played 5 seasons in the NBA between 1977 and 1984, best known as a member of the Denver Nuggets. Roberts was shot and killed by two men in the parking lot of his apartment complex following an alleged argument.
  8. Bubbles Hawkins (1954-1993): Best known as a member of the Nets from 1976 to 1978, Robert "Bubbles" Hawkins averaged 19.3 points per game in during the '76-'77 NBA season following the departure of Julius Erving. However, his career was ultimately short-lived. His body was discovered shot to death in a suspected Detroit crack house in in 1993.
  9. Jim Bradley (1952-1982): While not technically an NBA player, Bradley was an ABA champion in 1975 during a 2-year stint with the Kentucky Colonels. An alum of Northern Illinois University, he and former Illinois State player Bubbles Hawkins often faced each other on the court--however, their lives would follow a similar pattern right until their tragic ends. After a drug deal gone bad in 1982, Bradley was shot in the back in Portland OR, where his body was found in an alley.
  10. Ozell Jones (1960-2006): Jones played just one full season with the Spurs in 1984-85 before embarking on an overseas/minor league career. Following retirement, he opened up a men's big and tall clothing store in California. In 2006, he was found dead in his apartment with a gunshot wound to the abdomen; the case remains open today.
  11. Sid Tanenbaum (1925-1986): Tanenbaum played two seasons for BAA's Knicks and Bullets from 1947 to 1949. Following his basketball career, he opened up a metalworks shop. A pillar of his community, he would often loan money to his neighbors; however, when Tanenbaum refused to continue lending to a local 37-year-old woman, she stabbed him to death in his shop.
  12. Jack Molinas (1931-1975): Molinas played for the Fort Wayne Pistons during the 1953-54 season, earning All-Star honors in what would become his lone NBA campaign after being banned for betting. He was later implicated in the infamous 1961 point-shaving scandal (alongside Connie Hawkins and Roger Brown), serving 5 years in prison for his role, where he supposedly gained ties with the New York mob. In 1973, while awaiting trial for interstate pornography distribution, Molinas was fatally shot in his backyard just 9 months after the murder of his former business partner, Bernard Gusoff. Police could not rule out a mob-related motive.
  13. Gary Suiter (1944-1982): Suiter played 30 games for the Cavaliers during the 1970-71 NBA season. Following an argument regarding a gambling debt, he was murdered by Gary Randall Hoxsie, who was later sentenced to life in prison.
  14. Bob Hogsett (1941-1984): Hogsett only played 20 professional games for the Pistons in 1967 and the ABA's Pittsburgh Pipers the following year. He later served as an administrator for the Virginia Tech veterinary hospital. While motives remain unclear, Hogsett was confronted by carpenter Louis Dowdy on December 5, 1984, outside their place of work. Dowdy fired a single shot into Hogsett's chest before turning the gun on himself.
  15. Bryce Dejean-Jones (1992-2016): After going undrafted 2016, Dejean-Jones worked his way up from the D-League before starting 11 of 14 games with the New Orleans Pelicans. Just three months after signing a 3-year contract with the team, he became the first active NBA player to die following Eddie Griffin's fatal car crash in 2007. On May 28, Dejean-Jones kicked in the front door of what he believed to be his girlfriend's apartment following an argument. In actuality, his girlfriend lived one floor above. Dejean-Jones moved into the bedroom, where a sleeping resident awoke and fired through the door in self-defense. Dejean-Jones was struck in the abdomen and pronounced dead at just 23 years old.
submitted by WatchMe_Nene to nba [link] [comments]

Weekend Discussion Thread - February 28 - March 1, 2020

Welcome back to another edition of the Weekend Discussion Thread. Ninth trading week of the year has finished.
As a tradition that started forty-eight Fridays ago, the first three commenters in each Weekend Discussion Thread will get a flair if they don't already have one, a flair change, or to designate a flair for someone else (edit your comment).
Notable earnings for the upcoming week.
Verify dates on your brokerage platform in case of errors/changes.
WallStreetBets book now available in paperback as well as kindle
New WallStreetBets Discord:
After one of the worst weeks in history, these helplines might be helpful for some of you:
National Suicide Prevention Lifeline: 1-800-273-8255
National Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-522-4700
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration's National Helpline: 1-800-662-4357
Suicide Prevention Lifeline Live Chat available here.
Crisis text hotline available by texting HOME to 741741 (686868 for Canada, 85258 for UK) for crises such as anxiety, suicide, depression, emotional abuse, bullying, self-harm, loneliness, etc.
submitted by stormwillpass to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

PTON - Potential to Be the Next Big Company

PTON - Potential to Be the Next Big Company
Peloton is going to the moon and here's why:
  1. Peloton, for the first time in it's history of being a public company, is expected to post a profit of $55M to $65M. For a company that is growing 70% YoY, expected to hit 1M subscribers with ~60% gross margins on their subscription product, this is incredible. We all know how much Wall Street loves profitability.
  2. June traffic YoY has essentially DOUBLED. Monthly uniques will prob land somewhere b/w 2M-3M monthly unique visitors. June 2019 they were b/w 500K-1M monthly unique visitors (see below).
When looking at last year's numbers during the same time period, they posted $223M in revenue. This quarter they are expected to post $520M, which I believe is a very conservative estimate. For reference, they posted ~$525M LAST quarter, so they are expecting numbers to essentially be flat this quarter, which I find strange and clear sand-bagging (subscribers have grown exponentially and demand is still through the roof). Their YoY growth for this quarter will be minimum 100% growth, and likely be closer to 200% YoY revenue growth (!).

  1. Please take into consideration, how many subscribers 1M subscribers actually is. Right now, they have 850K "Connected Fitness Subscribers" and 150K "Digital Subscribers." Let's just say all are paying customers (no free trials, little churn etc) that's around $34M (850K x $40) in Connected Fitness Subscriber Revenue and $2.1M (150K x $14) in revenue for digital subscribers per month. That's almost $500M in annual subscription revenue at 60%+ gross margins alone assuming absolutely no growth in their subscription numbers. Not only is $500M in annual subscription revenue impressive, they have over a 97% retention rate (which is unheard of).
  2. International Expansion. Peloton, rightfully so, is reinvesting much of their cash and profits into expensive ventures getting into costly legal battles (i.e. Flywheel) with competitors that are infringing on their copyright/technology. However, a lot of their spend is going and will be going towards international expansion. Think Netflix pre-international spike and what that did to their numbers. In the UK and Germany (the next two biggest markets), they barely have a presence. The at-home fitness will only grow, and this is going to be huge for the future growth.
  3. I view the at-home fitness movement as one of the key trends that has the potential to be game-changing. If you think about the trends in the market that have the potential to return your money 10x, I would bet on gaming, computer chips, gambling (maybe), AI, self-driving, and at-home fitness. Even if you believe there is no trend and people will go to the gym, it's undeniable the impact of COVID and how much liberal tech elites love this product. The wealthy will be the least affected by the pandemic, and guess what, their target market is the liberal elite/wealthy (most scared of COVID, and will always spend $ no matter what on expensive luxury items like a TESLA or PELOTON).
At absolute worst case scenario, I see this company at a ~$50 stock price (which is essentially 2x from where they were pre-covid). Their business has easily doubled since then, and if you are a forever pessimist and expect zero or negative growth (unlikely), then the stock drops maybe ~20%. The risk-reward here for me is undeniable. This has the potential to be a $100+ stock by the end of the year and definitely by 2021 with the potential to even have $SHOP or $TSLA like gains if the at-home fitness trend is here to stay. If it's not, then at worst you own a stock in a company that has over 1M subscribers, a rabid community/fan base, and a product that people love (like TESLA) with high NPS scores (70+) with a price around ~$50.
In the end, I never try and short or doubt a company where customers are absolutely in love with the product. This is the case with Peloton, with incredible tailwinds because of COVID and economies of scale with their growing subscriber base, ability to gain manufacturing scale, and also best in class talent (fitness instructors).
TLDR: At home fitness is early days of the trend, subscriber numbers doubling YoY with 95%+ retention, NPS scores on par with Apple and Disney, and potential for international expansion with an already profitable business growing 60% YoY. $100 by EOY.
submitted by sharkbat3 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Salty, Salty Bet, Terrible Damage Control

So this isn't entirely related to the FGC, but I thought you guys should know about this.

If you've heard of SaltyBet before and have played it in the past, then this should be easy to understand.

For those who haven't, SaltyBet is an online gambling platform which lets you bet fake money on MUGEN fights. Most of the bets are blind aside from the names of the characters and what tier they're in, of course this is circumvented if you pay real money to get a premium account called Salty Illuminati which gives you a whole lot more advantages compared to non-premiums when it comes to betting.

With that out of the way, let me explain what's going on.

Following EVO Online's cancellation, Salty, the owner of SaltyBet started deleting characters from SaltyBet's MUGEN. It's not uncommon for characters to be removed from SaltyBet's MUGEN every now and then, as some characters can be inappropriate (like +18 edits that sneaked in, even though a simple sprite edit can fix that real quick.) or just downright crash MUGEN. However the deletion of characters this time were done without reason nor explanation, so a few members in the community stepped up to ask what was going on and what happened to the characters.

Those members were immediately slapped with permabans, basically telling us "You don't need to know why I did it, just live with it."

Following these members, questions about the permabans came up from other members in the community. Why were they banned? What happened? What's going on?

Anyone who asked these kind of questions were also promptly permabanned, a majority of them at least.

Anyone who even questioned the situation were likely permabanned as well. These bans also included members who bought the premium membership on the site.

People who were in the SaltyBet Discord (which needs you to be premium, btw) and wanted to know about what was going on also had their Discord chat history hidden, effectively silencing the conversation and making sure no one else knew about how badly Salty was treating his community.

In addition, once details about this ban spree leaked to the common community, newbies were trying to understand what had happened to. Because there were too many people to ban at once, Salty instead opted to silence the embed Twitch chat through a 1-week follower requirement. Everything he's done up to this point has just been to cut off any communication about the issue at hand.

Now, what does this matter to you guys? Bottom line, please consider carefully if you want to support SaltyBet. If you've ever heard about that site and was interested before, things have changed. Some aspects have gone completely downhill and a large number of Salty Bet's regulars have decided they've had enough and left the place altogether, which also led to their accounts being banned.

Salty has clearly lost any and all control over the situation and is using any means necessary to protect the reputation of the site so that more people can continue spending money on the premium membership while he does nothing to fix the issues he's caused.

Permaban Examples

If you're looking for an alternative to SaltyBet, try out SpriteClub. It's functionally the same with better management.
submitted by NekoSchrodinger to salty [link] [comments]

Reverse Engineering - Part 2

[<] [INDEX]
Author's Note: Big thanks for the feedback on the first part and special thanks to coldfireknight for the mountain of help and slain commas. Please see the top-level comment below if you’d like to help with corrections, typos, awkward phrasing, etc.
I hope you enjoy the conclusion to my first series!
Admiral Muhr Lohset sat down gently upon the quadruped-modified seat in the Human embassy aboard Chyron Station. He had been making the trip more often, not just for their morning briefings but to see their progress in expanding the embassy to their liking. Lohset was impressed that they possessed the foresight to confer with engineers of many species to best accommodate their guests.
Not that the Human embassy received many guests yet, with the Galactic Union’s probation period still being in effect. In fact, Lohset’s own species, the Praetori, were the only Union species free to enter the embassy without express permission from the Union’s Council. Still, Lohset couldn’t help but feel pride for his colleague, Ambassador Ellen Sharp, as she finished delegating tasks to the various human workers that had relocated to the Station.
“Admiral, is it time for the briefing already?” Ellen intoned questioningly.
“Indeed, but I do so enjoy seeing a team in motion,” the Admiral reassured her.
The pair moved to the boardroom, an attendant trailing behind with the large seat designed specifically for Admiral Lohset. Once settled, the briefing began.
“What’s on the docket for today, Admiral?”
“Ellen, the day has come. The Council has determined the length of Humanity’s probation period. I received the notification last night but…well, I had a late meeting with the Habitation Administrator and once I’d returned to my quarters-,” he paused, “I wasn’t in a presentable state. You know I enjoy my off-hours,” the Admiral rambled around the subject.
“Please Lohset, I don’t care what you do on your off-hours, let’s get to the point,” she snapped.
Ellen was uncharacteristically impatient this morning. She had wasted most of the previous night listening in on a certain Praetori imbibing chemicals in his personal quarters and babbling to himself. She had very little patience for decorum today.
“I’ve never seen anything like it - just three of your years. They must have great faith in your peoples’ willingness to adapt,” Lohset stated as he stared into his refreshment pensively.
Ellen was taken aback, silently pinging her assistant to relay a memo to Earth immediately.
Admiral Lohset retrieved a Pad from his haunch pocket, extending the screen so both he and Ellen could see the timeline depicted.
“As you see, this moves us further ahead than anticipated, let’s review the steps your species still has to take. Perhaps there is something I can assist with?”
Ellen shifted uneasily. She wasn’t ready to advance to the next stage in preparations but now it was do or die. “I believe there is, Admiral. Various human factions have been prototyping a number of different shuttle and rocket designs over the past eighteen months or so that I’ve been stationed here. There has been a great deal of trial and error…a great deal of error mostly. The space debris field over Earth has expanded considerably in recent months,” she admitted.
“However, we have made significant progress on our orbital trading platform initiative, moving to the step of developing the tandem mining and manufacturing station. The atomic mining probes are assessing our system’s asteroid belt as we speak.” The hook was baited.
Admiral Lohset hesitated before asking, “Atomic mining probes?”
Got ‘em.
“Yes, Admiral. Surely there wasn’t a translation error over that term?” Ellen moved to adjust the spatial translator device in the centre of the table - a gift each new embassy received from the Council.
“I believe I understand the meaning, but atomic power is quite dangerous for the inexperienced. Council doctrine mandates waiting until after probation is lifted to invest in restricted technologies, particularly those with such destructive potential,” the Admiral admonished.
Ellen kept her face blank as she made a mental note to recommend repurposing the warheads within the disposable mining probes sooner rather than later. She looked to Lohset curiously.
The Admiral stood to pace the boardroom. “Ellen, I think it is time I told you the story of my ancestors’ hubris. We were not always the Praetori, you know. Our ancestral species, the Primus, were one of the founding members of the Galactic Union, along with a long-extinct species known as the Cornicen. Much has been lost to time, but the Galactic Union has persevered as an institution for contacting new species - fostering goodwill, fair trading, and equitable qualities of life for all. A noble endeavor, don’t you think?” Though Admiral Lohset did not wait for a response before continuing.
“The Primus and the Cornicen were brought to the brink of extinction by their ancient enemies, the Epyrians. It is believed that the Primus were reduced to little more than a few thousand individuals, subjected to a population bottleneck even their technology could not prevent. They entered a Dark Age and millenia later, Praetori history began, sung by millions of brothers-in-arms.
“One of the great artifacts of the Primus was kept as a holy relic through the ages. That relic may be the only reason we remember the full extent of Epyrian treachery today, for it became the first Galactic Standard Schematic, a simple but very effective electrical capacitor. Indeed, our ancestral species were the original designers of this device while the Epyrians profited off of their achievements. An entire civilization leeching off the work of my ancestors.
“The hubris of the Primus was thinking their property was their own, inviolate. The Praetori remember, though. This is why Galactic Standard Schematics must meet many requirements besides their function. They must be unreproducible, unmistakable, undeniably linked to the species of origin.
“The Galactic Union has no records of these ancient events. Even the Epyrians forget the humble past of their ‘utopian’ homeworld. No, the Praetori alone remember and sadly only seem to be acknowledged for our ‘elder’ status among the species. One by one, the fruits of our inherited gifts were stolen away, along with the respect we were once afforded, long before my time.” Lohset seemed to deflate and leaned to put his graspers on the back of a seat.
“But you already knew all of this, didn’t you Human Ambassador Sharp?” a new voice said with a slight sneer. A figure wrapped in shadow emerged from the edges of the boardroom, much to Ellen’s surprise. A sheepish embassy receptionist gestured in the doorway apologetically, as if to say he was unsure how the tall, shadowy Praetori managed to get by him. Ellen glared accusingly at her assistant before fixing a decidedly more diplomatic look upon her face.
The new Praetori took a seat in Admiral Lohset’s vacant chair. The Admiral addressed Ellen curtly. “Ambassador Sharp, please make your acquaintances with the Praetori Empire’s foremost spymaster, Ahaim Senfet.”
Ellen gave a slow nod to the spymaster, waiting for the other shoe to drop.
“I have an idea of what you’re up to, Human, but we must be careful now. The Council is waiting for your species to break the terms of probation and here I have a mountain of evidence showing just how many times that has occurred!” Spymaster Senfet pulled open his cloak, revealing several Pads fastened to the inner lining. “Give me something I can work with because this,” he gestured to his cloak once more, “I can’t work with this. I’ve done what I can to cover your tracks but you’re getting reckless. What would you have me do, Ambassador?”
Boys and their toys.
Ellen sighed and looked up at the Praetori men with a smirk.
Our mystery friend made an appearance today, see attached profile. Turns out the Praetori are a little more experienced in our craft than our reports suggest.
Lohset finally recounted his peoples’ grudge with the Epyrians with me, I think we can trust him for the next phase. He reacted…poorly to the mention of atomic devices, but this worked in our favor for the probation extension. I guess nobody has ever asked for an extension to their probation period before, but the Council was all too eager to rubber stamp it with our simple explanation of needing the extra time for ‘Atomic Disarmament’.
I’ve secured another 7 years for Projects DISARMAMENT and TRADE SECRET. I am recommending we advance the timeline to begin both projects immediately.
My pension with the Agency maxes out in 6, by the way.
Things moved quickly over the next few years, the constant flurry of activity became the new normal in the Human Quarter on Chyron Station. To all appearances, Humanity rallied behind the Council’s mercy and wise judgment, their gratitude shown in larger and larger investments in Chyron Station, even outside their allotted space.
Despite being contained within the barricaded Human Quarter, the embassy began its work proper, expanding influence and reciprocating gestures from other species. As a result, the symbol for Humanity aboard Chyron Station became one of isolation and mystery, a simple humanoid within a white, puffy, full-body suit with a gold visor. When the other species discovered this was a miniaturized replica of the primitive spacesuits Humanity first visited their moon in, demand for their culture and trinkets skyrocketed. Spacemen figurines soon went everywhere that humans couldn’t. Cultural exchange went both ways, after all.
Ellen liked to sit by the Barricade and hear the Station’s bustle and muffled alien tongues from just a short distance beyond. She found herself here again, eyes closed, eating a spartan lunch of nutrients from a disassembled food dispenser in the staff room of the embassy.
Progress on the outside is proceeding nicely, now to bring it home.
As she walked through the Human Quarter back to the embassy, she couldn’t help but marvel at how far they had come in such a short time. Project DISARMAMENT was largely out of her hands, but it was on track, according to the memos. Project TRADE SECRET was about to begin in earnest, as soon as the rest of her support team arrived. The residences and community buildings were nearly finished and her team would soon grow to a respectable one hundred and six humans, with a few Praetori attachés on Spymaster Senfet’s recommendation. Those were the one hundred and six humans that the Council had approved and knew of, anyways.
The team had settled in quickly and the embassy finally felt lived-in, after years of construction and mostly empty rooms. Still, the progress the fully-assembled team had made in just two months was staggering. All over the Human Quarter, innocuous mishaps added up.
A Council attendant-bot returned three minutes late with one of its wheels six degrees out of alignment. A holographic display in the embassy suddenly had a loose knob. A heating/cooling unit in the new residences was reset to factory default settings, seemingly without cause. Each event was barely worth a service request of its own, but a trained eye could see the pattern.
The Praetori were invaluable in their part, running interference and public relations outside the Barricade. In public, the Praetori would advocate for human cultural diversity and untold creativity, despite their relative technological ineptitude. In private, Humanity was the subject of many excited discussions between the Station residents.
The spymasters of Chyron Station were no exception. They were friendly with each other and held a monthly gambling tournament that rotated hosts and games by species favourites. None of them had gotten their positions without seeing the value in an interspecies network of spies and all of them were eager to discuss what new developments they’d learned regarding the elusive Humans. All but the Praetori spymaster, Ahaim Senfet, who bided his time and said little more than was required by tonight’s games.
The Epyrian spymaster rejoiced as he collected his shells from around the table. Senfet tried not to stare, his blood boiling as each croak of the frog-like Epyrian’s noxious laugh polluted the room with an acrid smell. Senfet was not the only one to notice either, as seats were shuffled away from the other end of the table.
“They are undisciplined, that’s what they are! Creativity is the absence of discipline, as the ‘elder’ can attest to,” the Epyrian loudly declared, gesturing towards Senfet. The acrid smell was too much, the pride too much, all of it too much. Senfet had been taking this all night and was about to lose sight of his own discipline before he caught himself.
“They ASKED for three times as long of a probation as the Council gave them,” the room erupted in laughter at Humanity’s expense. “At least they only have one quarter of their probation left, nearly the same as when they got here!” another round of laughter went around the room.
“That’s enough,” the Praetori stood, towering over the table in his cloak. He took a slow look around the room as they quieted down. He noticed the shifting eyes as he placed a grasper within his cloak, revealing one of the Spacemen figurines and tossing it on the table. “This is their chosen image to us, an opaque and unknowable facade. Don’t think you understand them when you’ve never met one. I have and they’re just like any one of us. Most of us, anyway,” he cast a momentary glance at the Epyrian.
“Oh, of course you would come to their defense, ‘elder’ lapdog,” the Epyrian mocked, “Why should we even give them the time of day? They have absolutely nothing to offer us besides that trinket, no natural weapons, they follow Council rules to the letter,”-Senfet had to stifle a laugh at that-”and they’ll be absorbed by some race with actual ambition!”
Senfet turned away from the table neutrally. “You should hold a healthy skepticism about anything you hear when it comes to Humans. You know they asked for that extra time in probation to voluntarily dismantle their tens of thousands of atomic weapons stashed from before we found them?” the Praetorian mused.
Senfet had the room’s full attention. Even the eavesdropping son of the establishment’s owner made an audible gasp. “Yes, atomic weapons. They have atomic power too, but far more weapons than even the most barbaric of us”-another side glance at the Epyrian-“would know better than to spend resources developing. They used them on themselves,” he let the words hang and then picked up his things. “I believe I’ve had enough gambling for the evening.”
Transfer of Command - ROOST relinquishes TABASCO AKA AMARYLLIS to UN GOV
Transfer of Jurisdiction - ROOST relinquishes CHYRON STATION Theatre to UN GOV
Transfer of Operations - ROOST relinquishes OPERATION PROMETHEUS to UN GOV
Project DISARMAMENT resounding success, see attached video detailing final munitions depletion
Per the Official Statement to CHYRON STATION, asset TABASCO, see attached profiles, is reprimanded for repeatedly breaking UN GOV / ROOST policies regarding the CHYRON STATION Theatre. Effective immediately, TABASCO is relieved of CHYRON STATION Command, and placed on disciplinary leave, pending replacement.
TABASCO is commended for her mission’s success, along with ingenuity and initiative demonstrated throughout her career and within CHYRON STATION Theatre. Full benefits of UN GOV Ambassadorial service to be extended to her spouse and dependents in perpetuity. ROOST pension to be transferred to UN GOV and set to highest pay scale immediately.
Retired Ambassador Ellen Sharp gave a long look at her desk, still the Council-issued one she sat down at ten years ago. The embassy assistants had done the heavy lifting, ensuring the Council’s bugs were still being fed the same disinformation feed, uninterrupted while Ellen packed her things. She smiled as she unplugged the power cord on the dummy computer connected to the outlet in the desk.
I wonder if anyone even reads the memos this thing generates anymore.
The last thing she took from her office was her own Spaceman figurine, its sensor suite disabled and its memory wiped for today’s ceremonies. Once she finished her third sweep of the office and her usual haunts, she was accompanied by her assistants and her old friend, Admiral Muhr Lohset, as they loaded her things into the shuttle back to Earth. Ellen couldn’t help but laugh when Lohset was required to override the shuttle’s coordinate restrictions on Earth’s system one last time. The Praetori Admiral gave her a final long hug, wishing her luck planetside.
The Barricade came down with a cheer that reverberated all throughout Chyron Station. The Human Quarter was open for business and the probation was soon to be lifted. Ambassadors of all species lined up to meet their elusive counterpart known chillingly only by the name “Sharp” all this time. Trade deals, alliances, tourism exchanges were the topics of the day as the Human Quarter became decidedly less Human every second.
Each Ambassador left empty-handed, dismayed that they had missed their Human colleague by mere minutes. Ellen’s sudden retirement further fuelled the gossip about her enigmatic species while she kicked off the final stages of OPERATION PROMETHEUS from her shuttle. Speculation ran rampant while aliens of all shapes and sizes browsed the pop-up shops for Spaceman figurine accessories. The dull roar of theories could be heard at any of the fully-automated Human food carts located around the Station.
As soon as the coordinate restrictions on Earth’s system were lifted, the interspecies trade fleet sped off at full spiral warp to be the first to properly meet the newest members of the Galactic Union. Unfathomable amounts of trade goods and technologies were packed away for the long journey. Some months later, the first ships of the trade fleet arrived in Earth’s solar system and were each greeted by an autonomous drone.
“Welcome, visitors to the Sol System! As you arrive, please form an orderly queue orbiting the factory satellite of our system’s third planet, Earth. Would you like to listen to our free audio tour while you wait?”
One by one, the trade ships arrived and were greeted by the unusual drones. Several ships had already incurred debt by accepting the extra services and bundled deals their assigned drone offered. When the fleet arrived in full, the drones addressed them as one.
Attention Galactic Union Trade Fleet, this is Orbital Trade Platform Prometheus speaking. Please transmit your trade offers and cargo manifests to your assigned drone now.
The Praetori ships had been some of the last to arrive, Admiral Lohset eager to see the Human homeworld again. Now that the space debris field was cleared up, Lohset took the opportunity to watch the greens, blues, and wisps of white of Earth flow by. The Humans needed their moment though, the Praetori would wait. The crew went into standby and began placing bets on what would happen next.
Some of the trade ships sat in stunned silence, others such as the Epyrians were subjected to the rage of their leadership. Was this a joke? The drones had rejected every technology offered, one by one, until finally all that remained in the cargo holds were the trade goods and advanced materials, which the drones happily offered exorbitant sums for. Many ships only docked with the Trade Platform to receive an explanation for the offence of rejecting their technologies, including their vaunted Galactic Standard Schematics.
Orbital Trade Platform Prometheus had been built specifically for this occasion. Each docking bay was designed for a different species, including embassy space, residences, and public green space, all artfully woven together but otherwise devoid of life. However, the species-designated docking bays each featured a carefully chosen array of technologies laid out for the respective species to inspect.
A feeling of suspicion spread throughout the Platform as the visitors came to understand that each docking bay presented adapted versions of their own species’ Galactic Standard Schematics, refined by Human design. Worse yet, there were no adaptors to be found anywhere and the various devices seemed to all be made of single blocks of material, obscuring the inner workings to the casual observer.
As Admiral Lohset exited his ship into the spacious Praetori docking bay, a familiar voice rang out across the platform, “Welcome to Trade Platform Prometheus, honored guests. I regret being unavailable to meet with each of your species aboard Chyron Station. Each of you here today has offered us kindness, generosity, and gifts beyond our imagination. We thank you all for the lessons you’ve taught us.
“You will find in your respective docking bays our tailored gifts for each of your species in return. Each piece of technology in front of you is theoretically capable of outperforming your species’ Galactic Standard Schematics.
“Please reserve your judgment until I am finished.”
“Before you think about attempting to reproduce these, we have a total of one thousand, six hundred, thirty-one Galactic Standard Schematic applications pending, as of just moments ago. You will find these devices to be quite unreproducible. Mass spectrometry will reveal a strong presence of Caesium-137 and Strontium-90 throughout, unable to be economically generated without the use of atomic weapons. As you may know, Humanity has disposed of our atomic weapons of the past and each of you are forbidden by Galactic Union laws from developing such technologies.
“However, each of your species that can verifiably claim to be the origin of a Galactic Standard Schematic will be given free planetary licenses in perpetuity to use, produce, or sell these adapted devices, under certain conditions. The only restriction is that you may not produce the devices off-world and if you wish to export them, Humanity’s UN-Government Coalition will receive a portion of the revenue under the license agreement.”
There were murmurs of discontentment and confusion in many of the docking bays as species began loading the solid blocks of material into the ships’ cramped cargo bays. In the Praetori docking bay, however, there was only a single piece of technology laid out for them, the original Praetori Schematic for a capacitor.
The familiar voice echoed from the docking bay’s entryway. “Hey Muhr, welcome to Earth,” Ellen teased playfully. She had regained some youth in her time away from Chyron Station.
Admiral Lohset looked down to the small capacitor with some amusement. “This? I don’t think we can verifiably claim much about its origin…” Lohset trailed off.
“I doubt anyone else will be able to either, so I’m free to waive the terms of the license agreement in this case. Enjoy the gift, Muhr, and don’t find another reason to complain or I’ll formally request you as my attaché here on Earth.”
“I think I’d like that.”
submitted by Mackelsaur to HFY [link] [comments]

Defending the Draft: Green Bay Packers


The Green Bay Packers surprised just about everyone (except James Jones) with their successful campaign under first year HC Matt LaFleur. Before the season, he hired former Jaguars OC Nathaniel Hackett to fill the same role in his offense, and he elected to keep DC Mike Pettine who served in that capacity the year before under former HC Mike McCarthy.

The team ended the year 13-3 on the regular season, including a complete sweep of the division, plus a win against the Seahawks in the division round of the playoffs. Despite their success, there were many critics who considered them to be the worst 13-3 team in NFL history. The Packers were accused of "winning ugly" and not resembling a true contender. Those chickens would come home to roost in San Francisco as they were no match for the 49ers in the NFC championship game. The team gave a horribly flat performance on defense, plus an offense that had no answer to San Francisco's elite defensive front 7.

Even though they didn't achieve their Cinderella story, the Packers would go into the offseason with much of the starting roster returning intact for a chance at a second run in 2020. The roster is mostly comprised of players 27 or younger, and only three starters needed to be replaced from the prior season. The team is banking on the growth and development of their young players to help propel the team to that next level. Their upcoming schedule will be much more challenging than 2019's on paper, but working on building more consistency on both sides of the ball will hopefully produce a better overall "team" than the one which overachieved a year ago.



This offseason saw the end of the road for two longtime Packers in Green Bay with RT Bryan Bulaga (EYE-WAH) and ILB Blake Martinez (aka pussyfucker69). They signed deals elsewhere after giving the team many years of consistent on field play. Replacing them will not come easy. Jimmy Graham, on the other hand, will not be greatly missed. His best games of the season came in the playoffs after two seasons of dropped passes, lazy routes, and non-existent blocking. (But at least he was better than Martellus Bennett.) The only other significant loss was Tramon Williams who played lights out as the nickel corner last year. At 36 years old, it is more likely the team will go with younger and cheaper alternatives to fill his role next season, but a return to the team isn't out of the question.

The contracts signed by Martinez and Bulaga, along with OLB Kyler Fackrell, should mean the Packers are in line to be rewarded three compensatory choices in 2021 in the 4th, 5th, and 7th rounds respectively. Bulaga's compensation is capped at a 5th rounder due to being a 10 year veteran.

* = former starter

Player Position New Team Contract
Bryan Bulaga * RT Chargers 3 yr / $30 mil
Blake Martinez * ILB Giants 3 yr / $30 mil
Jimmy Graham * TE Bears 2 yr / $16 mil
Kyler Fackrell OLB Giants 1 yr / $4.6 mil
B.J. Goodson ILB Browns 1 yr / $2.4 mil
Dan Vitale FB Patriots 1 yr / $1.3 mil
Jason Spriggs LT Bears 1 y $825 K
Geronimo Allison WR Lions 1 yr / $800 K
Ibraheim Campbell S Titans 1 yr / $750 K
Tramon Williams CB UFA NA
Jared Veldheer RT UFA NA

The Packers used the $8 mil in cap savings they got back from releasing Jimmy Graham to add Christian Kirksey (ILB - Browns), Ricky Wagner (OT - Lions), and Devin Funchess (WR - Colts) once they were released from their former teams. Kirksey is an athletic ILB with 4.55 speed and playmaking ability, but he has missed substantial time due to injuries recently and only played in 9 games the last two years. Wagner has had one brilliant season with the Ravens in 2017 followed by two average ones with the Lions, but a starter is a starter. Funchess is a former 2nd round pick and still only 25, so hopefully he can finally reach the potential he has flashed now that he has Rodgers at the helm.

They did not sign a TE to replace Graham because the team will be using returning players instead. The favored starter is 2019 3rd round pick Jace Sternberger, after he missed most of his rookie season due to injuries. He is accompanied along with the returning ageless veteran Marcedes "Big Dog" Lewis (who is now famously known as the only 1st round player Rodgers has thrown a TD pass to).

By making these moves and essentially locking up their starters pre-draft, they allowed themselves some flexibility with their approach to how they would spend their picks.
*= projected starter

Player Position 2019 Team Contract
Christian Kirksey * ILB Browns 2 yr / $13 mil
Ricky Wagner * RT Lions 2 yr / $11 mil
Devin Funchess WR Colts 1 yr / $2.5 mil
Reggie Begelton WR CFL 3 yr / $2.3 mil
Treyvon Hester DT Redskins 1 yr / $850 K
Gerald Willis III DT Dolphins 1 yr / $675 K
Jamal Davis II OLB Dolphins 1 yr / $675K
Mason Crosby K Packers 3 yr / $13 mil
Marcedes Lewis TE Packers 1 yr / $2.3 mil
Tyler Ervin RB/RS Packers 1 yr / $1 mil
Will Redmond S Packers 1 yr / $750 K


\pick acquired from Houston thru Miami for #30 and #133 overall*

The Packers shocked everyone by passing on a player who may have helped the team right away when they instead traded up for Utah St. QB Jordan Love. This has been an endless point of criticism and even ridicule since the draft ended. But this pick made a lot of sense at its core. I go into much greater detail in regards to this pick elsewhere, but here are the main points that led to this selection:

"I think it's always kind of been in my DNA that anywhere in the draft, if you have an opportunity to take a quarterback you really think can play, you need to consider it."
-Brian Gutekunst, GM of the Packers

Jordan Love is a 6'4 and 224 lb QB with large 10.5" hands and a rocket for an arm. He is a self-described playmaker, which is evident when you watch him on tape. At Utah St in 2018, Love put on a clinic, throwing for 3500 yards, 32 TD's, and only 6 INT's. This put him on the radar as a potential top 10 or even top 5 prospect heading into the 2019 season. Unfortunately, after a coaching change and losing 9 offensive starters, Love saw a major drop in his numbers (3200 yards, 20 TD's, and 17 INT's). Love started to develop some bad habits such as staring receivers down and forcing risky throws, which is what led to the spike in turnovers.

However, it needs to be mentioned that Jordan Love put the team on his shoulders all season. He frequently had limited choices available but to either try and make a play or take the sack. Had he not been dealing with this adversity, he probably would have heard his name called much sooner and the Packers would not have had a shot at him in the late 1st round.

"He’s not a bad decision-maker. That was one of my biggest pet peeves in the draft process was people calling that kid a bad decision-maker. He’s not. He’s a kid that’s played with nobody around him and he was competitive and he was trying to win football games. Did he force throws? Absolutely. Did he have to force throws? Absolutely. You didn’t see bad decision-making on ’18 tape, when he threw 32 touchdowns and six picks. You never heard those numbers brought up the whole process. All you heard was 20 touchdowns, 17 picks. Like, nobody ever went back and talked about ’18….. He is the only QB I’ve ever scouted who will be throwing into bigger windows in the NFL than he threw into in college.”
-Jim Nagy, Senior Bowl director and former NFL scout

Numbers aside, there are glimpses and flashes of his game that make you swear you are watching Aaron Rodgers himself. He flourishes when the play breaks down displaying the ability to throw off various platforms to keep the play alive. Love has that same gunslinger mentality that Patrick Mahomes had at TX Tech – no throw is impossible in their minds. And when I say that Jordan Love didn’t have any help, it isn’t just making an excuse. He was essentially the only threat Utah St. had on offense in 2019, so Love took it on his shoulders to will the team forward, similar to other top picks like Daniel Jones at Duke and Josh Allen at Wyoming.

As far as his fit with the Packers, clearly they have to like his arm talent and his hand size, along with his experience playing in frigid environments - those are three important boxes that need to be checked if a QB wants to succeed at Lambeau Field. One could argue that of all the QB's in this draft, Love may have the most upside just due to his physical traits but is also the least ready to play. I don't think he could have landed in a better position than on a team built to win championships with a future Hall of Famer to learn from.
2 (62) - AJ DILLON (RB - BCU)
According to Peter King, the Packers were trying to trade up in round 2 for one of two specific WR's. Once Chase Claypool was selected at #49, they stopped calling teams. We can take this to mean that at that point, the Packers felt all the impact players at WR in the draft were gone. The Packers were content to look for other ways they could improve the offense. The team did not want to simply draft a receiver just to say they took one. And that's where AJ Dillon comes in.
Even with the breakout season of Aaron Jones in 2019, there is reason to suspect the Packers view AJ Dillon as the long term primary RB in this offense. Unlike Jones who is a quick and elusive 5’9 and 200 lb RB, Dillon is a north/south runner with surprisingly light feet for his 6'0 and 247 lb frame. He has proven he can withstand the workload of a RB1 posting three 1,000+ yard seasons in college. Similar to Jordan Love, he did it without much of a supporting cast. He led the FBS in the amount of stacked boxes he was facing by a wide margin (46% of the time). He also led the FBS in yards after contact (over 800) because teams knew he was getting the ball but it just didn't matter - he ran it hard just the same. Dillon is best known for his balance and being able to keep himself moving through first contact. He is knocked by evaluators by his lack of presence in the passing game, catching only 21 career passes, but not being asked to do it isn’t the same as not being able to do it. Dillon also has a tendency of not exhibiting the patience to let the play develop, which leads to him missing opportunities for cut back lanes on occasion. These two things are hardly fatal flaws, and he can improve with proper coaching.
But why Dillon, and why Round 2? That seems to be what gets people scratching their heads the most. Well, the Packers love to draft athletes, and as far as RB prospects go Dillon is a rare player. He is bigger than Eddie Lacy and faster than Aaron Jones. Dillon posted the best SPARQ score (97%) among all RB's at the combine, and his speed score (117) was in the 97th percentile. Running 4.53 and jumping 41" should simply not be allowed from a RB who is also 247 lbs. I also believe the front office had Dillon rated extremely high on their board compared to other options at RB. Dillon and Jonathan Taylor (96% SPARQ) had to be the 1a and 1b of this class for the Packers. Gutekunst just can't help himself, he loves size and speed.
The Packers will also be facing a lot of difficult decisions with their group of free agents in 2021, which includes #1 RB Aaron Jones and #2 RB Jamaal Williams. Drafting Dillon makes it so the team can choose to keep one of those two next year, while potentially grooming their long-term starter. Now LaFleur has his own Derrick Henry that will help him run the kind of offense he wants to execute. Short yardage and goalline situations will be a different story in 2020 compared to the struggles a year ago. Frankly, fewer positions are as NFL ready as RB's are, and few of them are as rare of an athletic prospect as Dillon. He is likely going to be a big part of the offense moving forward. Especially in December and January when it is freezing cold and actual football begins.
The Packers missed on all the WR's that might have made a difference for them, but they were ready to find a pass catcher in an unconventional way. So at pick #94, with only two TE's selected at that point (Cole Kmet and Devin Asiasi), the Packers had their choice of player at the position. It is safe to say the Packers got their preferred one with Josiah Deguara.
This pick was considered a reach by most analysts when it was made, but context is important. Matt LaFleur was the QB coach in Washington in 2010 under Mike Shanahan. That year Chris Cooley, a 6'2 and 250 lb TE/HB, had 77 catches on 126 targets for 849 yards. That position was currently vacant on the Packers depth chart, so it can't be underestimated how integral this role could be going forward as LaFleur continues to shape the team to fit his philosophy.
Josiah Deguara is the perfect player to fill that Chris Cooley (or Kyle Juszczyk) role in this Shanahan-style offense. At only 6'2, Deguara played in-line TE 60% of the time in college because they tried to move him around to take advantage of his versatility. He played TE, HB, FB, and WR at Cincinnati, where he ended his career as the school record holder for catches at the position with 92 catches in 2 years. The former record holder was Travis Kelce, so he is in good company. It also just so happens that Mike Denbrock, the OC for Cincinnati, coached alongside Matt LaFleur at Notre Dame previously - I bet the two discussed together all the ways Deguara could be a factor within the Packers offense.
The main thing that I keep reading about Deguara is how great his character is both on and off the field. The Packers believe strongly in finding players who "carry the G", and Deguara is just a high effort, hard-working, bring-your-lunch-pail-to-work kind of guy that everyone wants to root for. He will play on all the special teams units, learn to play in whatever role the offense asks him to, and he will always give 100% effort. It would be premature to say Josiah Deguara is an impact player as a late 3rd round pick, but he is a wild card who could potentially open this offense up and take it in several new and creative directions.
P.S. LaFleur showed this play during one of his team meetings in 2019 as the prime example of what it means to never give up on a play (he starts at the top of the screen as a blocker, then chases the defender down to make the TD-saving tackle).
Six months later, the Packers selected him with the #94 pick. It is clear looking back that Deguara was meant to wear green and gold. LaFleur was more excited about this pick in his post-draft interviews than any other player chosen that weekend.
4 (133) - to Miami
*traded along with #30 overall to move up to #26 for Jordan Love
Kamal Martin is one of those LB's that would have been talked about more had he not been battling injuries and been able to compete in the pre-draft functions. Injuries cut his season short to just 8 games, but he still finished with 66 total tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack, 2 FF, and 2 INT's - his knack of finding ways to always be around the ball had to stand out to Gutekunst. Jim Nagy, the director of the Senior Bowl, called Martin a top 3 senior LB and a steal for the Packers as a 5th round pick. He has prototypical size for a 3 down LB at 6'3 and 240 lbs along with 34" arms and an 81" wingspan. The Packers scouts estimated that he runs between 4.55 - 4.65 in the 40, but he wasn't able to participate in the drill while recovering from his knee injury.
Martin is a former high school QB, and he uses that experience on the defensive side to help give him a unique perspective of the action in front of him. He lined up at both OLB and ILB at Minnesota and was a playmaker at both positions. And that position versatility is what attracted the Packers to him. He will need to get stronger and play with better pad level, but there is a lot going for Martin as a prospect.
As the first defensive selection in the draft for the Packers, Martin will be given a chance to compete with other young players, such as Oren Burks, Ty Summers, and Curtis Bolton, for a chance to be the #2 ILB next to Christian Kirksey. Burks and Summers are two very athletic guys who have played mostly on special teams, and Bolton was a UDFA last year who made waves in preseason before getting hurt. This group is young, athletic, and horribly inexperienced, making it the most open of all the roster competitions on the team.
Kamal Martin is the definition of a sleeper who could have landed in a fortuitous situation based on the uncertainty surrounding the LB group in Green Bay. He is a proven playmaker who finds ways to get to the ball, and those instincts could serve him well as he fights for a spot. Martin is hoping to follow in the footsteps of Blake Martinez to become an every down starter as a day 3 selection.
*pick acquired from Raiders for WR Trevor Davis
The Packers have had a very positive track record selecting OL on day 3 of the draft. They had three picks to spend in the 6th round, and considering they have veterans with expiring contracts coming up and nothing but UDFA's as depth, they felt it was an area of the team that could use an infusion of new competition. They have a good shot of one of the next three players becoming a starter down the road.
With their first of three IOL choices in round 6, they selected Jon Runyan Jr who comes to the Packers with a great NFL pedigree (his father had a very long and successful career for the Oilers/Titans and Eagles). After being a backup OG for his first few seasons, Jr. made the switch to RT and then LT under the coaching of Ed Warriner who coached Packers center Corey Linsley at Ohio St. Jon Runyan would go on to start 25 games at LT for Michigan over the next 2 years, earning 1st team all-Big 10.
While Runyan is a bit smaller than you would like out of an NFL tackle (6'4 and 306 lbs with 33" arms and a 79" wingspan), his agility and athletic ability were near the top of the draft class. He had the 3rd best 3-cone time at 7.57, and his 40 time of 5.08 was 9th best in the class. His 10 yard split of 1.79 met the threshold that you want for OL by 0.01 (good enough by NFL standards and that's all that matters). Due to his size, Runyan is more of a pass blocker than run blocker at this point in his career. He excels by using his quickness and athleticism to keep up with dangerous pass rushers but sometimes struggles with moving bigger guys back in the ground game.
Runyan will compete at guard, which is what he was announced as during the draft, but his versatility makes him a potential swing tackle and utility guy in the early part of his career. Fortunately he comes from a zone blocking scheme at Michigan, which will help him adjust to the Packers version. A lot will depend on how well he transitions inside and how he makes the jump to the speed and complexity of the NFL. If he can make a similar leap like he made entering his junior season, the future looks very bright for him in the NFL.
6b (208) - JAKE HANSON (C - OREGON)
*pick acquired from Titans for OLB Reggie Gilbert
There is always something to be said when the Packers select a true center in the draft because they rarely do. Elgton Jenkins played 4 different positions at Miss St and JC Tretter played OT before the Packers moved him inside. The only true center Ted Thompson ever drafted was Corey Linsley - an athletically limited and undersized player but a consistent technician who played in a big time program at Ohio St.
Now, Linsley at 28 years old is heading into 2020 as the 6th highest paid member of the team and 3rd highest paid center in the NFL. He is also entering the final year of his contract. Next year is going to be judgment day for many starters on the team, and decisions will need to be made to see who will be offered an extension including David Bakhtiari (LT), Kevin King (CB), Aaron Jones (RB), and Kenny Clark (DT). The Packers may not have the cap space to keep Linsley around beyond this season. The Packers also dislike handing out third contracts to their players who may be starting to head towards the back end of their careers. That means the search to find a successor is part of the plans, and that leads us to this next pick.
Jake Hanson may not have had the flashiest combine (5.5 in the 40 at 6'4 and 303 lbs), but when it comes to centers, it is more about their technique and ability to make the right calls at the line. That being said, he did have 33 reps in the bench press which was #4 among all OL. Hanson comes to Green Bay as a 4 year starter who boasted 49 career starts. He was the anchor of one of the best lines in the country since he first won the job as a true freshman, and Oregon may not have been as successful without him in the middle making sure the assignments were correct.
Hanson plays with an incredible motor, even if he lacks the desired size to compete against linemen one on one, but the Packers' zone system should be able to hide some of those deficiencies. He has strong hands and a sticky grip (which I'm sure will make our division rivals happy), and he works well with guards in double teams. He still needs some fine tuning with his snap placement as he can occasionally misfire out of the shotgun. But as a developmental 6th rounder, Hanson can continue working on those techniques while learning behind one of the best technicians in the game. Not to mention he can use this valuable time on the scout team practicing with Jordan Love. Should the time come when both players are ready to start, they would have already developed a rapport thanks to their time on the practice field together.
With the selection of Simon Stepaniak, the Packers believe they got a player who could have been selected as early as the 4th round had he not tragically torn his ACL last December. Stepaniak is the opposite of Runyan and Hanson - he is a tough-nosed mauler in the run game who likes to pick fights and look for people to punish. He played RG at Indiana, and it is likely with his 32" arms that he may be limited to play interior OL as a pro. His 37 reps (!!!) on the bench press in Indianapolis frequently showed up on tape where he routinely manhandled defenders in one-on-ones and would flatten other guys out on double teams. (The fact he could even do 37 reps while recovering from his surgery is astounding.)
His main issues will be dealing with poor agility when matched up against quicker speed rushers, where relying on his upper body strength alone won't be enough. Despite his athletic shortcomings, Stepaniak allowed a pressure on only 3.3% of passing plays per PFF. With some fine tuning of his game, there is potential that Stepaniak could become the top OL of the three the Packers selected in round 6.
Stepaniak resembles a guard in a power running scheme from 1993, who would rather be out hunting for defenders than settling back and waiting for them to come to him. In a way, this could be a pick for the future direction of the offense, especially after the Packers selected AJ Dillon and Josiah Deguara earlier. This shows a subtle shift in the offense away from 5 WR shotgun formations and hinting more towards pounding the rock to punish the new mold of smallefaster defenses. It makes sense that they would take a gamble on Stepaniak late this year. Even though he may wind up on the PUP/IR list, the Packers liked his talent this late in day 3.
7a (236) - VERNON SCOTT (S - TCU)
*pick acquired from Browns for OG Justin McCray and #244
Who the hell is Vernon Scott?
He was only Dane Brugler's 61st ranked safety out of 62 in the 2020 draft, of course! But really, this is a name that most people just shrugged their shoulders to and probably overlooked. Let me now be the one to introduce you to him. Vernon Scott is a player that is all about two things: versatility and upside.
At 6'2 and 206 lbs, he has the prototype size you are looking for in a modern defensive back. He wasn't invited to the combine, and his pro day was canceled hence why he was invisible to the draft community. His athletic testing will unfortunately remain a mystery, but the Packers estimated he ran a 4.40, which would be outstanding for a player at his size.
Scott was a one year starter at TCU who lined up all over the secondary. He was primarily a key contributor on special teams for all 4 years before taking over as a starter this past season. While Texas WR Devin Duvernay made him look silly in 2019 (seriously, don't watch the tape), Vernon Scott really started to come on towards the end of the year. In the last three games of the season he had 4 total takeaways, a sack, and a TD. He had a particularly strong game against Oklahoma where he made 7 tackles, a fumble recovery, and a 98 yard INT for a TD. He would finish the year with 44 tackles (4th on the team) and 7 PBU's (ranked 3rd).
Where did this sudden playmaking skill come from? Scott moved to the nickel corner role, and he was told to let loose. The Packers are clearly banking that his ability as a slot CB, while also having experience playing the other 4 positions in the secondary, will translate to the NFL and give him an edge to win a roster spot. Not often is a player drafted because of a 3 game stretch, but hey, it is the 7th round so why not? He joins a secondary that is led with Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos but was often exposed when other players such as Will Redmond had to see meaningful snaps. The team also allowed Ibraheim Campbell to walk this offseason who had been with the team for two years. Needless to say, the Packers liked the direction where Vernon Scott’s arrow was pointing, and the more competition in the secondary the better.
*pick acquired from Ravens for RB Ty Montgomery
Jonathan "Spider" Garvin comes to Green Bay with a nice resume from his last two years at Miami. He is an impressive physical specimen at 6'4 and 263 lbs with 34" arms and an 80" wingspan. While his 4.82 probably didn't help him, when you watch the tape his explosiveness jumps off the screen - literally. His 36" vertical was #1 among edge rushers and DL at the combine.
Garvin put up 60 tackles, 17 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, and 5 pass breakups his sophomore season (not to mention a fumble returned for a TD) while playing across from Joe Jackson. That sort of production tends to get a player noticed, and so his junior season in 2019 was all about fighting for whatever he could get while dealing with the extra attention. Garvin would enjoy much of his time fighting off double- and triple-teams in 2019, which caused a dip in his overall numbers from the year prior. Garvin ended the season with just 37 tackles, 9 TFL, 5 sacks, 4 hurries, and 2 FF. However, his pressure rate of 14.8% was still 5th best in the ACC according to PFF.
The drop in production along with the 4.82 in the 40 is likely why he didn't hear his name called in the early part of day 3. Even so, at his size, length, and explosiveness, he could find a home as part of the rotation at OLB in Green Bay. Kyler Fackrell played over 400 snaps on defense as the #3 OLB last year while 1st round pick Rashan Gary played 245. Now that Fackrell left to join the Giants in free agency, Gary will presumably be in line to pick up the snaps left behind which still allows enough opportunities for Garvin to find a role as a situational pass rusher on defense if he can win the #4 spot.
Garvin comes to Green Bay with very similar measurables as Za'darius Smith. He has the strength to hold up on the edge but also the explosiveness off the line to get up field to rush the passer. Garvin has a lot of tools to work with, and having both the Smith's as mentors could go a long way as far as how he learns to master them. The OLB depth has a lot of juice on the team for once, and Garvin makes this group even more exciting.
7 (244) - to Cleveland
*traded along with OG Justin McCray for #236


The Packers were in an interesting position heading into the draft, coming in as a 13-3 team without any major holes on the roster. All the starting spots were filled ahead of time, which already put this draft class at a disadvantage compared to other teams in the league. The rookies may not be relied upon to start or play much in 2020, barring an injury to someone ahead on the depth chart. It isn't too farfetched to think that the Packers could have selected 9 completely different players and would have received the same level of impact from this class year 1.
That isn't to say some of the members of this class can't find a role as part of a rotation - I expect Dillon, Deguara, and Martin to all get involved - but there isn't a need to have any of these guys start right out of the gate. Which can be a good thing. It reminds me of the old school days where rookies yielded to veterans and had to bust their asses to earn playing time, rather than being handed a job as soon as they walked through the door.
At the end of the day, regardless of what happens with any other player, this draft will ultimately be judged based on the success or failure of one single player: Jordan Love. The legacy (and possibly the future employment) of GM Brian Gutekunst is also now firmly tied to this selection. The coaching chops of Matt LaFleur will also be thoroughly put to the test to see how he develops. A lot is riding on getting this one right.
But in the end, because Jordan Love plays the most important position in the game, if he becomes a successful starter, this whole draft is a win. For now all he needs to do is focus on being the best scout team QB the Packers have had the luxury to have on the team since Aaron Rodgers himself. Nothing will be easily given to Love. Proving to the organization that he is worthy of being the heir apparent to Aaron will greatly depend on how he prepares himself for what comes next.
We drafted him in the first round, we certainly think he has that kind of talent. But that’s not enough in the National Football League. You’ve got to work, you’ve got to earn it, you’ve got to become a good enough player. Again, we have one of the best to ever lace them up, and we’re shooting for championships as long as he’s here, and we expect him to be here for quite a while. -Brian Gutekunst
submitted by nootfloosh to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]

DD: Aritzia ($ATZ) - The Great Canadian $LULU

DD: Aritzia ($ATZ) - The Great Canadian $LULU
As I eagerly refreshed my stocks app today counting my tendies from my LOW calls, I couldn't help but wonder how my ATZ position was going. Unfortunately, the northern-brethren of the US of A had markets closed today in recognition of Victoria day (some monarch idk tbh).
Nevertheless, I bring to you the finest DD on what is undoubtedly going to be the next Lulu, it's about time we migrated some of our degenerate gambling to the TSX.

TLDR; purchase ATZ stock as it is a long-term buy, but also play their Q4 earnings (5/28) with ATZ 18c 6/19.

Aritzia - What is it?
A Canadian semi-luxury fashion house and clothing company based out of BC that operates 94 stores in North America (predominantly in Canada, but with about 20 stores in the USA).
The company predominantly sells in-house brands (Babaton, Wilfred, etc.) but also stocks clothing/accessories from the likes of Levi's and Herschel among others. Aritzia has had an amazing success over the last few years, growing organic same store sales in the past 19 consecutive quarters, and posting a double-digit EBITDA and top-line sales CAGR since 2016 when the company went public.
The stock (ATZ.TO on the TSX) traded for an ATH of $26.12 shortly before the Feb crash and is currently sitting at $14.60 as of Friday's close.

Why is ATZ the next Lulu?
Aritzia first caught my attention from the countless packages that were being delivered to my upstairs neighbors (3 late-20s females), as well as from the various Tiktoks and Instagram haul stories that I had seen over the past few weeks. I was curious, could a clothing company that operates brick and mortar locations be doing well during quarantine? The answer is yes, and not only are they surviving the quarantine, but they are THRIVING.
Aritzia has one of the best-in-class E-commerce platforms of any retail clothing manufacturer in North America, let alone Canada. Their 2020 target was for 25% of all sales to be digital, I am sure that they have far exceeded that threshold so far this year. The company views their brick-and-mortar stores as showrooms for their product, but ultimately is focused on an omni-channel sales strategy. Customers are used to shopping both on-line and in-store and their tech-savvy target clientele of women aged 19-35 are the prime audience to be spending their CERB and Trump Bux on the latest line of summer lounge and athletic wear for at-home delivery.
Aritzia's most popular market is BC, where recently CoVID restrictions have been lessened, and Aritzia stores have started reopening. The company has a well-thought-out approach on how to maintain customer safety for the remainder of the crisis which can be found here:
Given their track-record of growth, the re-opening of their key markets, and their best in class E-commerce and social media marketing, I think that ATZ is a slam-dunk to become the Lulu in the coming weeks/months.

Grass roots due-diligence
Customer Surveys:
I asked over 20 females of varying ages, cultural backgrounds, locations in Canada, and levels of economic status a few key questions about Aritizia.
  • What is your opinion of Aritzia as a brand?
    • Unanimously, the feedback was positive. Respondents noted that they predominantly switched from fast-fashion brands such as Zara to shopping at Aritzia because their styles are more timeless and were of high-quality materials. They also cared a lot about the company's sustainable fashion mindset, and the various community donation and social cause campaigns that are frequently at the forefront of Artizia's media presence
    • To gauge the response from non-Canadian residents on how Aritizia is performing in the US I reached out to a number of Americans (predominantly in California and Texas), the response there was mixed, most had heard of the brand (impressive given its retail footprint of 20 stores) but most had not shopped there recently. Nevertheless, it gives long-term support on the brands growing awareness in the US, which is one of the company's next big bets.
    • Below is a response from a BC resident (early 20s, white) on why she shops online at Aritzia:

  • Have you or your friends shopped more online at Aritzia than you did prior to the CoVID crisis? If so, why did you do so?
    • Almost unanimously, respondents claimed to have shopped online at Aritzia more during the quarantine than prior, mostly because of the style of clothing that Aritzia specializes in (lounge and athletic wear... do we want to guess why Lulu is doing so well?) but also because of an overall desire to engage in retail therapy. Many noted that although online spending increased at Aritzia, it did not for other products (with the notable exception of Sephora).
    • The below response from one of my co-workers (mid-20s affluent white Canadian) is not unique in its description of the level of online shopping going on right now at Aritzia:
  • Have you experienced any stock-outs on products online? And if so, are they back in stock quickly?
    • This question was asked to assess if there are any supply chain constraints in Aritzia's ability to service the high level of demand
    • Respondents claimed that while some products were unavailable, it was only due to them being on pre-order (ie. not released yet). This leads me to believe that if Aritzia does have inventory issues, they are not widespread and they are able to disguise them well as pre-orders potentially further increasing hype
Other Grass Roots DD:
As stated earlier, the majority of Aritizia's sales occur in the province of Brittish Columbia, where most of their retail stores are located (approx 20% of the system). BC was one of the early provinces hit by CoVID and only saw 2400 cases in relation to Canada's 78,000 (3.1% of cases for 14.3% of the population).
I wanted to ensure that what I was hearing from my social circle, was accurately being represented by actual deliveries in the market they are most highly penetrated in. I was able to get in contact with a Fedex driver that works in Surrey BC, he was able to back up the previous survey statements by saying that almost 1 in every 2 packages of clothing he delivered over the last 2 weeks was Aritizia, and that was not the case prior to CoVID. Unfortunately this is a sample size of 1, and represents a very small area of their operations, but nevertheless, it does help to strengthen my thesis.
To further support my research, the following was posted on their Twitter account on Friday, during an event they were hosting to sell Front-line worker themed merchandise:
In summary, from the testimonials of Aritizia customers, the real world experience of a delivery driver in BC, and the company's own reports on their website traffic, the company is without a doubt seeing unprecedented online demand for their products.

Here is where the DD gets juicy as Aritzia has one of the cleanest and healthiest balance sheets I have ever seen.
The first thing to point out is the companies healthy cash position, the entirety of Artizia's long-term debt is entirely covered by their current cash on-hand.
The other thing to note is the large change in lease liabilities and right-of-use assets from the same period last year. This is driven by an accounting treatment change whereby the entirety of the companies lease obligations over the committed term of their head-lease must be included as a liability on their balance sheet, with the offsetting right-of-use asset representing their remaining tenancy on their retail locations.
2 points here:
  1. the current portion of lease liabilities (C$58m) does not present as a cash-flow issue as almost all of the major commercial real-estate companies (Choice Properties, CT REIT, Rio Can, etc.) are all offering rent-deferral for commercial tenants over a 3-yr period. This coupled with their healthy cash position, the availability of a C$100m revolver, and their growing online sales, materially remove all liquidity risk in the near term
  2. Backing out leasehold obligations as they are not true-debt in the conventional sense, the company has a debt-to-EBITDA of >1.3x, which is below the retail industry average of 2.5x and a healthy debt-to-assets of ~0.3x
I wont go over any analysis of their earnings history and revenue growth as it is pretty self-explanatory, but here are the charts from their latest 10-k here:
Aritizia is a healthy company with growing revenues and EBITDA that has managed to capitalize greatly on its E-commerce platform over the last few months. Currently the share price is trading at a point that hasn't been seen since June 2018. The outlook for the company is arguably stronger now than it was pre-crisis, as in addition to the points I covered above, many women's clothing retailers have declared bankruptcy leaving a bigger piece of the pie for the remaining incumbents.
The Aritzia earnings call is 5/28 but will only cover their Q4 which ended March 1st 2020, there will be no CoVID impact on these results; however, I still strongly believe that with strong FY20 guidance, the stock could recover back to its early-2020 levels. I recommend either longer term OTM calls with expiry in October in order to guarantee the impact from my grass-roots DD is priced in, or betting on the June expiry options in anticipation for strong guidance.

ATZ 14c 6/19
ATZ 18c 6/19
ATZ 18c 10/16
submitted by Neptonrs to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Chapter 10, Gambling History in America - Slots Poker Roulette 6/11 Growing Old Gambling History of Sports Betting in Vegas High Rollers: A History of Gambling (Documentary)

Gambling - Gambling - History: Gambling is one of mankind’s oldest activities, as evidenced by writings and equipment found in tombs and other places. It was regulated, which as a rule meant severely curtailed, in the laws of ancient China and Rome as well as in the Jewish Talmud and by Islam and Buddhism, and in ancient Egypt inveterate gamblers could be sentenced to forced labour in the A Brief History of Gambling. There‘s a lot of evidence that gambling games existed in ancient times. From tiles found in China dating from 2300 BC and ivory dice found in Egypt from 1500 BC to gambling paraphernalia belonging to Bronze Age Greek soldiers, it’s clear that gambling is as old as civilization itself. The Earliest Evidence of Gambling. While it is almost certain that some forms of betting have been taking place since the dawn of human history, the earliest concrete evidence comes from Ancient China where tiles were unearthed which appeared to have been used for a rudimentary game of chance. The biggest change in the history of Gambling in the United Kingdom came in 1961 when Harold McMillian's government legalised betting shops under the 1960 Betting and Gaming Act. This was an unusual move for a conservative politician but it ultimately reflected the times. Gambling has taken place, in some form or other, for hundreds if not thousands of years, and is inextricably linked to the history of humanity. From ancient China where indications of rudimentary…

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Chapter 10, "A Place in the Sun," Roll the Bones: The History of Gambling

An informative dive into Las Vegas' sports betting history, and a look into the future, with commentary from Circa Sports Owner, Derek Stevens. Brief History of American Gambling - Duration: 8:41. desoriente0 6,048 views. ... Top 10 Underdog Payouts in Sports Betting History - Duration: 5:13. Big On Sports 8,813 views. With sports gambling legalized across the country, it's important to look back at some of the biggest gambling scandals in sports history. Why? Well, you know what they say about people who fail ... Part 6 of 11. American Casinos and Gambling History in America. History of casino games as roulette, slots machines, blackjack 21, poker, dice. If you love to gamble you would love this great video! NET’s original documentary focuses on the growth of problem gambling in the Baby Boomer generation. With more time and financial resources, experts say Baby Boomers are more at-risk to become ...