NFL Betting: Analyzing the Steelers' 2020 season win total

(DFAroto) Week 12 Matchup Strategy Guide - Part 1

Part 1 of 3

Part 2 Right Here:

Part 3 Right Here:


DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-4)

Colts ATS: 5-4-1 Texans ATS: 5-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Colts 20.75 Texans 24.75


Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: #25
Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: #10
Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU): CB Lonnie Johnson (OUT) S Justin Reid (OUT) S Mike Adams (OUT) S Tashaun Gipson (Q) CB Bradly Roby (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (IND): RB Marlon Mack (OUT) WR Parris Campbell (OUT) WR T.Y. Hilton (Q) TE Mo Alie-Cox (Q) TE Eric Ebron (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): T.Y. Hilton (25%) Eric Ebron (14%) Zach Pascal (12%) Jack Doyle (12%) Nyheim Hines (12%) Chester Rodgers (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Jonathan Williams (47%, 14, 1) Nyheim Hines (36%, 6, 4) Marlon Mack (32%, 14, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Colt’s just keep on rolling, and those of you who listen to the Bill Simmons Podcast will recognize the Ewing Theory; it occurs whenever a team inexplicably gets better after the departure of their star player. Now, we can’t ever know if the Colts are actually better without Andrew Luck, but sitting tied atop the AFC South with the Houston Texans surely backs this theory up. Jacoby Brissett (upgrade) has been very good this year, throwing for 1,797-yards and 15 touchdowns, sporting a QBR of 51.7, which places him right behind Tom Brady - good for 16th best in the NFL. The Texans have been much better against the run than the pass this year, and were torn apart by Lamar Jackson last week (but who hasn’t been?), so look for IND to attack through the air. Brissett gets a slight upgrade in this good matchup, but he’s still better suited for 2 QB formats - although HOU does give up 21.6 FPPG to QBs, plus 26.1 to wideouts, making it an enticing matchup.
T.Y Hilton (upgrade) participated in today's walkthrough and is expected to make his return from a calf injury, his involvement further upgrades Brissett while downgrading the Colts auxiliary passing options. Zach Pascal, Chester Rodgers and Marcus Johnson are all shaky options with Hilton back, and none are recommended plays. Pascal is the best bet, but he has disappointed in recent weeks without Hilton, posting 2-26-0 and 2-17-0 receiving lines the last two weeks. Eric Ebron is also expected to suit up, relegating Jack Doyle to a low-floor TE2. Both tight ends have a habit of sapping each other’s value, but Ebron is the preferred play due to his nose for finding the endzone.
RB Breakdown
Stud running back Marlon Mack (OUT) broke his hand last week against the Jaguars and is expected to miss several weeks. That leaves Jordan Wilkins, Jonathan Williams and Nyheim Hines to shoulder the load. Many including us thought that Wilkins was the true handcuff to Mack, but as fate would have it, Wilkins was inactive due to injury when Mack went down, allowing Williams to break out. The backfield situation is now one to avoid, as it’s fully expected to be a three headed RBBC, with Wilkins and Williams splitting early down work, with Hines eating up the passing-catching work. The matchup isn’t a good one either, as HOU is ranked top-10 in Run DVOA and gives up 18.5 FPPG to RBs. It’s best to take a wait and see approach with these running backs to see if one breaks out above the rest.
The Colts are going with Jonathan Williams (stash) as the starter for tonight's game, giving him more appeal than the other two options. That being said, it's extremely difficult to know if that means he'll be given the bulk of the early down work or if he's a starter in name only. Proceed with caution but definitely stash him if you can.


Opp (IND) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (IND) Run DVOA:#23
Injuries to Watch DEF (IND): S Khari Willis (OUT) CB Shakial Taylor (OUT) CB Rock Ya-Sin (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU): WR Will Fuller (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): DeAndre Hopkins (31%) Will Fuller (21%) Kenny Stills (14%) Keke Coutee (12%) Duke Johnson (10%) Darren Fells (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Duke Johnson (59%, 8, 2) Carlos Hyde (34%, 9, 1) Buddy Howell (7%, 2, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
I’ll be the first to admit that we got our score prediction wrong regarding the Texans/Ravens last week, at the very least we expected a close game, not the absolute spanking the Ravens delivered. The matchup doesn’t get easier this week; last time these two teams played, Deshaun Watson (downgrade) threw for 308-yards and a touchdown, but also tossed a pair of interceptions and ran for just 32-yards. Fantasy owners can’t justify sitting a quarterback of Watson’s caliber, but it’s best to keep expectations in check - IND allows just 16.3 FPPG to QBs and 21.7 FPPG to WRs.
Despite having a down year, DeAndre Hopkins aka Nuk, is the WR9 in PPR formats. He just isn’t having the explosion games we’ve become so accustomed to. He’s killed the Colts in the past and is due a big game, continue to get him active in all lineups. Will Fuller is expected to play but make sure he’s active before the game starts, and if he returns, this will bump Keke Coutee to the bench. The last time all the wideouts were healthy it was Kenny Stills in the slot, with Fuller and Nuk on the outside (Rotoworld). Either way, if Fuller is active both he and Stills are boom-or-bust WR4 options. They likely need to hit on a deep ball to find any value. Coutee shouldn’t be in any lineups irregardless of Fuller playing. Both Darren Fells and Jordan Akins remain involved in the offense, draining both of their values. So far, Fells has been the better option due to finding the endzone, but he can’t be trusted as more than a touchdown-dependent TE2.
RB Breakdown
Last week gave us a good preview of which running back would be on the field in situations the Texans were trailing, and it was unsurprisingly Duke Johnson receiving the higher snap rate than Carlos Hyde (upgrade standard). It’s likely that HOU faces a positive or neutral game-script tonight as the home favorites, meaning that Hyde will likely be heavily featured in the run game. Interestingly, even though IND Run DVOA is much worse than their Pass DVOA, they only give up 96.8 rushing yards per game and just 14.2 FPPG to RBs. Treat Hyde as a back-end RB2, it seems likely he finds his way into the endzone. Duke J can’t be trusted as more than a desperation RB3.
Score Prediction: Texans 24, Colts 21

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-10.5)

Browns ATS: 3-6-1 Dolphins ATS: 5-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Dolphins 16.75 Browns 27.25


Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #13
Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #20
Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): DE Olivier Vernon (Q) S Eric Murray (D)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIA): WR Gary Jennings (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): DeVante Parker (20%) Mike Gesicki (13%) Jakeem Grant (11%) Albert Wilson (10%) Patrick Laird (10%) Allen Hurns (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Kalen Ballage (70%, 14, 6) Patrick Laird (21%, 7, 6) Myles Gaskin (9%, 1, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The tank is still on in Miami even after winning a couple games. Instead of a being a shoo-in for the first pick, it’s looking like they’ll be top-3. Ryan Fitzmagic (downgrade) continues to sling the rock, and impressively threw for 323-yards with no scores and no interceptions against a very good BUF secondary last week. Either way, he does not need to be considered as a fantasy option.
Devante Parker has continued his breakout, albeit about 3 years too late for most fantasy owners to get behind. Parker has a solid shot to make his preseason goal of 1000- receiving yards, and as mentioned last week, MIA has a very favorable schedule moving forward for wideouts (CLE, PHI, NYJ, NYG, CIN). He needs to be owned in all formats. Jakeem Grant showed out last week, rushing for a touchdown and returning a kickoff for another. That kind of production can’t be relied upon, but he does have a penchant for big plays and appears fully healthy - he’s looking like the preferred flier over the likes of Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson. At one point it looked like Mike Gesicki may carry value the rest of the season, but it’s hard to get behind any MIA player and he completely busted last week with a 4-18-0 receiving line. Still, he has at least six targets in three consecutive games so he warrants some consideration, but he’s best suited as a TE2.
RB Breakdown
The good news is that Kalen Ballage (downgrade) salvaged his fantasy day with a rushing touchdown. The bad news is that he ran for just 9-yards on 9 carries, adding another 8-yards on 5 receptions. He’s a desperation RB3 that can’t be recommended in any format. Fellow running backs Patrick Laird and Myles Gaskin aren’t seeing the volume right now to be considered in any format.


Opp (MIA) Pass DVOA: #32
Opp (MIA) Run DVOA: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIA): S Bobby McCain (Q) DE Taco Charlton (Q) LB Raekwon McMillan (Q) CB Ken Webster (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): OT Kendall Lamm (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Odell Beckham vs. Nik Needham (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Odell Beckham (26%) Jarvis Landry (24%) Kareem Hunt (24%) Nick Chubb (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Nick Chubb (56%, 27, 1) Kareem Hunt (42%, 12, 8) Dontrell Hilliard (1%, 0, 0) D’Ernest Johnson (1%, 0, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Last week's win against PIT got ugly, culminating in DE Myles Garrett ripping off Mason Rudolph's helmet and hitting him over the head with it. No matter which way it’s looked at, losing Garrett is a big loss for CLE. Luckily, they face a MIA squad that ranks in the bottom half for both Run and Pass DVOA. Baker Mayfield tossed two touchdowns last week, but still hasn’t performed at the level that was expected this season.
Odell Beckham Jr. (upgrade) has been a bust so far, but against MIA is a great matchup - they give up 22 FPPG to QBs and 25.4 FPPG to WRs. CB Nik Needham is expected to shadow OBJ, and it’s not an imposing matchup, Needham was destroyed last week by ‘Smokey’ John Brown to the tune of 9-137-1. It seems more likely that he booms than busts this weekend, and he’s a good bet to find the endzone for the first time since Week 2. Speaking of finding the endzone, Jarvis Landry (upgrade PPR) has found paydirt in three consecutive weeks. Consider Landry an upside WR2 for PPR formats in the great matchup. It appears that tight end David Njoku isn’t expected to return from IR this week, when he does return it’ll hurt Landry’s redzone usage. Demetrius Harris and Ricky Seals-Jones are desperation streaming options - MIA gives up 7.7 FPPG to tight ends.
RB Breakdown
MIA has been better against the run in recent weeks, a couple weeks ago they were ranked almost dead last in both Run and Pass DVOA, but they have moved up the ranks against the rush. It’s likely irrelevant, as Nick Chubb (upgrade) and Kareem Hunt (upgrade PPR) should run all over them in a positive game-script. Start Chubb with confidence as an RB1 and consider Hunt an upside RB2 in PPR formats - MIA gives up 22 FPPG to RBs.
Score Prediction: Browns 27, Dolphins 17

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-4)

Broncos ATS: 6-4-0 Bills ATS: 6-3-1
Projected Team Totals: Broncos 16.5 Bills 20.5


Opp (BUF) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (BUF) Run DVOA: #27
Injuries to Watch DEF (BUF): DE Jerry Hughes (Q) DB Siran Neal (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DEN): WR Tim Patrick (Q) OG Dalton Risner (Q) C Conner McGovern (Q) OT Ja’Wuan James (Q) RB Phillip Lindsay (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Courtland Sutton vs. Tre’Davious White (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Courtland Sutton (24%) Noah Fant (15%) Phillip Lindsay (11%) Royce Freeman (11%) Tim Patrick (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Phillip Lindsay (64%, 18, 2) Royce Freeman (30%, 9, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
After squandering a big early lead last week, the Broncos head to Buffalo hoping to right the ship. Brandon Allen (downgrade) got off to a hot start with a few big throws, but faded in the second half and was a big reason why the Vikings were able to make a comeback. The Bills have an above average pass defense - surrendering the 4th fewest FPPG to QBs - so any streamer appeal Allen might have had is nullified by the matchup.
His best weapon in the passing game, Courtland Sutton (downgrade), will face one of his toughest matchups of the season in a likely shadow matchup vs Tre’Davious White. Despite the tough individual matchup, and the fact the Bills have given up the 9th fewest FPPG to WRs, Sutton’s performance this season has earned him a long leash in season-long leagues. He’s worthy of a start as a somewhat lower ceiling WR2. The surprise for the Broncos last week was Tim Patrick (deep stash) receiving eight targets and going for 77-yards on four catches. While Patrick is worth consideration as a deep-league stash, this is not the week to take a shot on starting him. He’s no more than a dice-roll WR4/5. Rookie tight end Noah Fant (downgrade) had another solid outing with a 4-60 line on a team-leading 11 targets. The Bills are perhaps the toughest against TEs - fewest FPPG allowed to the position - so Fant deserves a matchup downgrade. However, his role as the second option in this passing game, combined with his elite after-the-catch abilities, make him a low-end TE1 at such a thin position.
RB Breakdown
Denver was unable to establish a consistent running game against the Vikings stout front seven last week, but the Bills have a weakness in this area so it may be a matchup to exploit. Phillip Lindsay (upgrade) soundly out-snapped Royce Freeman in this loss, and looks set to lead the timeshare again this week assuming he’s healthy. Although Lindsay hasn’t been as involved in the passing game of late, his total touches have consistently been higher than Freeman’s. The Bills have given up the 15th most FPPG to RBs, but have a bottom-tier rush defense by DVOA metrics. Consider Lindsay a lower-end RB2 this week due mostly to the low projected point totals, but the matchup makes him worthy of a start in most leagues. Freeman is only a handcuff for Lindsay owners at this point.


Opp (DEN) Pass DVOA: #15
Opp (DEN) Run DVOA: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (DEN): LB Joe Jones (Q) LB Justin Hollins (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BUF): OT Ty Nsekhe (Q)
Key WCB matchups: John Brown vs. Chris Harris Jr.
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): John Brown (26%) Cole Beasley (20%) Dawson Knox (11%) Devin Singletary (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Devin Singletary (74%, 16, 1) Frank Gore (26%, 12, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Bills finally won a game that came primarily due to passing game heroics, albeit against the league-worst Dolphins defense, but now return home to face an underrated Broncos defense. Josh Allen finished with a career-best passer rating last week, and finished with an excellent final fantasy line. His rushing ability was on full display, but his impressive passes to John Brown were what really had his owners gushing. This week the matchup is a bit tougher - the Broncos give up the third fewest FPPG to QBs despite only the 15th ranked pass DVOA. Allen may regress a bit in the passing department, and this game’s low projected final score suggest fewer TDs, but his rushing upside keeps him in the back-end QB1 mix.
As for the previously mentioned John Brown (downgrade), he goes from one of the cushier matchups in the league to one of the toughest. He’s likely to face Chris Harris Jr. in shadow coverage most of the day, and although Harris got dusted a bit by Stefon Diggs last week, he remains one of the premier coverage corners in the NFL. The downgrade is negated somewhat by Brown’s ability to break a big play at any time, so owners can continue to plug him in as a WR2, but keep expectations in check. Cole Beasley (drop) is the only other WR worth consideration for the Bills, but his inability to rack up high catch totals has sapped any potential PPR value. Although he’ll likely get an easier matchup than Brown, his value is limited only to very deep leagues as a WR4/5 with little upside. Dawson Knox (drop) has shown some flashes as a rookie TE in the league, but he too hasn’t been able to consistently produce for fantasy. He’s an extremely TD-dependent TE2 whose matchup - Broncos give up the 13th most FPPG to TEs - isn’t enough of an upgrade to warrant a stream.
RB Breakdown
With the Bills having so much success through the air last week, there were fewer opportunities for Devin Singletary and Frank Gore (drop) on the ground last week than would be expected in such a positive game flow. However, Singletary was far more efficient with his opportunities, and looks like he’s on the precipice of a breakout. The Bills offense has struggled to put up points against good defenses, but Singletary has been a consistently impressive force when given opportunities. The Broncos have a solid rush defense and give up the 12th fewest FPPG to RBs, but the potential for an increased role in positive game-script put the rookie in RB2 territory. Gore’s only value is as a hindrance to Singletary’s breakout, and he shouldn’t be owned in any league except as an extremely low-upside handcuff.
Score Prediction: Bills 20, Broncos 16

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Steelers ATS: 6-4-0 Bengals ATS: 4-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Steelers 22.75 Bengals 16.25


Opp (CIN) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (CIN) Run DVOA: #24
Injuries to Watch DEF (CIN): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (PIT): WR Juju Smith-Schuster (D) RB James Conner (D) WR Diontae Johnson (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Juju Smith-Schuster (17%) Jaylen Samuels (16%) Diontae Johnson (15%) Vance McDonald (13%) James Washington (13%) James Conner (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Jaylen Samuels (34%, 10, 6) Trey Edmunds (47%, 6, 3) James Conner (18%, 6, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Putting aside the fact that he was involved in an ugly brawl at the end of last week’s game, Mason Rudolph (downgrade) was simply horrendous under center last week. He threw four interceptions, and couldn’t seem to hit receivers that were further than five yards away from him (even that was a struggle). The matchup couldn’t be better - the Bengals’ pass defense is ranked 31st by DVOA and gives up the 3rd most FPPG to QBs - but that doesn’t move the needle enough to consider him in standard leagues. Perhaps in a 2 QB league there’s an owner brave enough to stream Rudolph in this matchup, but we’d recommend against it.
Another reason to avoid Rudolph in any format is that he will likely be missing top target Juju Smith-Schuster, although it’s not like he used him much in the first place. With Juju doubtful to suit up, and Diontae Johnson questionable to play as well, James Washington is the only name to keep an eye on. If both of those players sit, Washington could be a volume-based WR3 based on opportunity and matchup. However, owners should likely avoid the situation altogether, despite the favorable matchup. Vance McDonald may have a better shot of capitalizing on the opportunity, but he too has been victim to Rudolph’s struggles (and his own). McDonald would be a low-end TE1 if both players sit, if only due to the matchup and the bump in usage. Still, avoid this passing game if possible.
RB Breakdown
Fantasy owners were dealt another tough injury-related lineup decision last week when the Steelers took James Conner off the injury report prior to kickoff, only to see him leave the game with a re-aggravation of a shoulder injury he had apparently been dealing with all week. Conner is looking doubtful to suit up against the Bengals on Sunday, so the backfield will again feature Jaylen Samuels (upgrade PPR) and Trey Edmunds this week. Although Edmunds actually led the team in snaps, it was Samuels who got the majority of the touches, and managed to score a TD despite the ugly offensive performance. The Bengals are a favorable matchup - giving up the fourth most FPPG to RBs - but the state of this offense overall limits Samuels’ fantasy appeal somewhat. Still, if Conner is out, Samuels should see the requisite volume to belong in the RB2 ranks, especially in PPR leagues due to his passing acumen. Edmunds is not a fantasy option at this point.


Opp (PIT) Pass DVOA: #5
Opp (PIT) Run DVOA: #8
Injuries to Watch DEF (PIT): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (CIN): AJ Green (D) WR Audent Tate (Q) WR Stanley Morgan (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Tyler Boyd (24%) Auden Tate (19%) Alex Erickson (11%) Tyler Eifert (10%) Joe Mixon (8%) Gio Bernard (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Joe Mixon (59%, 16, 3) Gio Bernard (52%, 4, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
If you decided to stream Ryan Finley (16 team 2 QB league only) last week because the Raiders have a porous pass-defense, you likely ended the day with a loss. The rookie was again unimpressive, despite a favorable matchup, and now faces the 5th best pass defense by DVOA metrics. He is an easy avoid in all formats and all league sizes this week. Finley will be without AJ Green (ankle) again this week, and likely without Auden Tate (concussion, neck) as well. That leaves Tyler Boyd (downgrade) as the lone survivor of what was once a somewhat fearsome WR corps, at least on paper. The Steelers are middle of the pack in FPPG allowed to WRs, but they’ll be able to focus most of their attention on Boyd knowing he’s the only threat out wide.
After watching the Steelers shut down Cooper Kupp two weeks ago because they saw him as the most important target for Jared Goff, there’s reason to believe that’s how the Steelers will approach Boyd. He’s in the WR4 range simply due to his likely volume, but his QB situation and tough matchup keep him out of the top-36 and give owners a strong incentive to consider benching him. Alex Erickson and Tyler Eifert are not fantasy options at this point outside of extremely deep leagues. There simply isn’t enough juice in this passing game with the rookie under center. If the Bengals are to pull the upset, it will be through a game manager type performance from Finley, a strong running game, and an even more inept Steelers offense.
RB Breakdown
Despite their offense becoming even more inept after benching Andy Dalton, the Bengals have found some success in the running game with Joe Mixon (upgrade standard) the past two weeks. Against two straight solid rushing defenses over the past two weeks (BAL and OAK), Mixon has racked up 200 rushing yards and over 50 receiving yards. This is due in part to a renewed commitment to him and the volume he has received, but also seemingly a slight improvement from the offensive line and perhaps from Mixon himself to run with more vigor. The Steelers are another tough matchup - giving up the 6th fewest FPPG to RBs - but with his current volume and obvious talent, Mixon should be viewed as an RB2 regardless. If Finley can improve even slightly from last week, it would give Mixon a chance to repeat his performance and snag another rushing TD along the way. Gio Bernard is simply a handcuff to Mixon at this point, but he should be owned by all Mixon owners, especially those with postseason aspirations.
Score Prediction: Steelers 17, Bengals 14
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Week 13 D/ST Scoring, 2017

Hello and welcome back!
I hope everybody’s Week 12 went well. This is the home stretch for those of us in a playoff hunt; I’m still in three leagues with a playoff spot up for grabs, and I’m sure most of us still reading here today are either still in the hunt, or looking for an edge to gain in Weeks 14/15/16. That will follow after the rankings.
Week 12 itself was fairly kind, and it marks the sixth week in a row where I would consider the results to be very much in line with the projections. Rank correlation for our model was 0.396, compared to FantasyPros ECR’s result of 0.412. It was the first week since Week 4 where our model was outperformed by ECR, and it was by a fairly slim margin at that.
The biggest culprit was the Cleveland Browns, which was by far the biggest miss of Week 12 (though perhaps not the most impactful miss). The most impactful miss was probably the San Diego Chargers, who kept up their recent run and the Cowboys’ recent struggle with a dominating performance on Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, the model (barely) correctly selected Baltimore over Pittsburgh – small consolation to those who didn’t have the option and went with the Steelers anyway – and also more accurately identified Washington as a streaming option.
Like nearly every week, there were some big hits, some big misses, and a lot of garbage in between. The machine grinds on another week.
Week 13 D/ST Scoring
1 12.4 Jacksonville Jaguars
2 11.8 Los Angeles Chargers
3 10.8 Baltimore Ravens
4 10.4 Los Angeles Rams
5 10.2 Tennessee Titans
6 10.1 Pittsburgh Steelers
7 9.4 Chicago Bears
8 9.1 Philadelphia Eagles
9 9.1 Kansas City
10 8.8 New Orleans Saints
11 8.8 Dallas Cowboys
12 8.4 San Francisco 49ers
13 8.4 New England Patriots
14 8.3 Miami Dolphins
15 8.3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
16 8.1 Oakland Raiders
17 8.0 Green Bay Packers
18 7.9 Denver Broncos
19 7.9 Detroit Lions
So many options this week!
  1. Jacksonville and Baltimore remain the cream of the crop for another week. Baltimore has gotten extraordinarily lucky with their schedule, facing a not-so-murderer’s row of backup QBs and garbage offenses. This week might be a little bit tougher, but they get the Lions at home, and Stafford has some injury worries of his own in Week 12. However, I am assuming that he will be fully good to go, and that the Ravens will be a start-worthy option regardless in Week 13. The Jaguars are also at home, and they get the Colts. Both starts are exceedingly obvious for anybody with access to one or the other, with the Jaguars getting the edge if you somehow have both available.
  2. San Diego gets a crack at the Browns at home, so of course they are obvious as well. I would start them in the same order presented above with regard to Jacksonville and Baltimore.
  3. The Steelers disappointed in Week 12, and although they get the Bengals on the road this week, it’s still a slam dunk tier 1 start. I would not overthink this one too much if I had access to the Steelers. The Bengals are still a bad offense, and they should come back down to earth a bit after a romp against Cleveland.
  4. The Rams, also on the road, are probably my least favorite of the ones discussed so far, but the Cardinals are an exploitable offense. This is the kind of game where you’d really wish your D/ST were playing at home, but so it goes. The Cardinals have been the 6th best matchup for opposing D/STs on the season, have conceded eight scores of 9+, and have never conceded fewer than 6 all season long.
  5. Among the top tier, that just leaves the Tennessee Titans. The same lowly titans that are in the bottom 3rd of fantasy D/STs, and the same Titans that gave up roughly 4 million points against the Texans in Week 4. This time, the Texans are running out the inimitable Tom Savage, who has quite possibly the worst resume among current NFL starting QBs. The Titans' defense is pretty bad, the Texans' offense might be worse, and the Titans come in as 1 TD favorites at home. Streamers probably cannot do better, but let’s see what other choices they may have just in case.
  6. The Chicago Bears are probably the best pivot if you don’t trust the Titans. The 49ers have not been as kind to opposing D/STs as you might think, entering the week as just the 13th best matchup for opposing D/STs before adjusting for strength of schedule. They have not officially named a starting QB as far as I am aware, but should finalize something within the next 24 hours or so. Either way, the Bears are probably a great streamer. They are the 10th highest scoring D/ST on the season so far, with six scores of 9+ and a nice stretch of 69 points in four consecutive weeks from 5-8. The game is at home, Vegas has the scoring total low and the Bears slightly favored. Not great, but certainly good enough. We do not have enough of a sample size of Beathard and Garoppolo to accurate parse the difference between them, so I would not recommend spending too much effort in trying.
  7. Philadelphia has been lights out on both sides of the ball lately, and they should probably be considered up near Jacksonville as being too good to let go. Get away from them this week if you can due to playing on the road (as road favorites in Seattle!), but not for anything extreme. They are an every week starter for most teams that have access to them, as needed.
  8. New Orleans was the other midseason darling, but they have not really kept up their pace. Losing their top two CBs for last week made things more difficult than they probably should have been otherwise, and if that changes in Week 13, they can be started with a little more excitement. Otherwise, the matchup is OK, they are playing in the Superdome, and they should probably be started in most 12-team leagues. I would not rush to the waiver wire to grab them though. So while "Who Dat" has turned more into "Whoa, Don't" as far as their D/ST has been concerned, but they still probably have enough talent to justify a look.
  9. Washington does not make the cut for the column, but they deserve a mention here. The Cowboys have been really bad, but this is yet another case where we must separate expectation from results. Were they expected to score 8 points per game over their last three? Should they have been? My own answers are no and no, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. Again, we can ground ourselves with Vegas, which sets their team total at approximately 21 points for Week 13. If you think that Vegas is wrong by multiple TDs, well, I don’t know what to tell you. They haven’t built grand palaces in the desert by being habitually wrong by those kinds of margins. I do not see the Washington football team as being matched up well enough to exploit the Cowboys' recent deficiencies, and this is a great chance to bet on Dallas to show some amount of regression toward a healthier scoring output.
  10. Interesting that Dallas themselves rank high enough to consider for streamers. I don't have the fortitude to do so with my own money, but if your waiver wire is dire enough, it might be necessary. Certainly playing at home is a nice plus, and they could be a backup plan for anyone who swings and misses on claims for Tennessee or Chicago.
  11. Kansas City might be on the wire in many leagues and should be looked at on the same level as Chicago, at the very least. Their recent offensive disasters have really done a number on their floor and expectations both, and they're playing on the road against a (gasp) capable NYJ offense. Plenty of red flags, but the model likes them even still.
That’s enough for Week 13. Let’s look at future weeks. The strategy is very simple:
• If you have an every-week starter, which at this point is probably just Jacksonville, stop reading and don’t worry about pairing them with anything. The Jaguars get three consecutive home games and then an away tilt against the 49ers.
• The Eagles have good enough matchups in Weeks 13, 15, and 16 and only require a pair for Week 14. The Ravens have good enough matchups in Weeks 13, 15, and 16 and only require a pair for Week 14. This means you should not pair them with each other, but both can be a strong main D/ST.
• So can the Chargers, who have strong matchups in Weeks 13, maybe 14, and 16.
• Add to that the Steelers, who have strong matchups in Weeks 13, 14, and 16 and only require a pair for Week 15.
Week 14
Packers (@ CLE)
Kansas City (v OAK)
Texans (v SF)
Bills (v IND)
Bears (@ CIN)
Cardinals (v TEN)
Patriots (@ MIA)
Week 15
Vikings (v CIN)
Lions (v CHI)
Panthers (v GB)
Saints (v NYJ)
Falcons (@ TB)
Week 16
Vikings (@ GB)
Patriots (v BUF)
Bears (v CLE)
Lions (@ CIN)
Panthers (v TB)
Washington (v DEN)
Cardinals (v NYG)
Basic strategery:
  1. Start with Week 14 and make sure you have that covered. As you can see, none of the options listed above double up in Weeks 14 and 15, so you’ll have to pair unless you have a strong multi-week option available also.
  2. Once you have Week 14 covered, cover Week 15. Forget Week 16 if you have to, or grab a 14/15 option that is usable in Week 16 in a pinch. Chicago is great for that. Minnesota is too. Panthers as well. Same with the Lions. There are a lot more 15/16 teams than there are 14/16 teams, so keep that in mind when choosing.
  3. And that’s literally it. The list above is not comprehensive, and I might have missed something obvious or sneaky. If you see an option that plays at home against a decent matchup, don’t worry if I didn’t list them. Feel confident that they’re probably a reasonable choice.
And with that, I think we can conclude Week 13’s preview. Yet again, it will be a busy week for me, and hopefully the last one for a long time. After 12 years off and on at two universities, two community colleges, and across three different states, I’m finally finishing up my last week of coursework. I'm excited to level up from math student to underemployed mathematician, but I have to get through these last few exams first.
As always, if you see users in the comments with questions you feel confident answering, please pay it forward and help out. Someone will hopefully have your own back covered when you need help as well.
Best of luck in Week 13!
submitted by quickonthedrawl to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

NFL DFS - PreSnap Podcast Wagering Show - Joe & Mike break down the betting lines for Week 1

September 6, 2019
QuickLink | iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube
Join Joe Pisapia and Mike Randle as they break down all the NFL Week 1 action from a betting perspective!
Show Rundown:
The PreSnap Podcast is brought to you by LineStar - the top rated Sports Analytics app on the market.
submitted by lategames to dfsports [link] [comments]

Wild Card Round - Panthers at Saints - Pregame Report


TEAM Record
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Spread Consensus: NEW ORLEANS BY 7
OveUnder: 47.5
Mercedes-Benz Pooperdome - 4:40 PM January 7, 2018
WEATHER FORECAST: Forecast: The New Orleans Saints call themselves a football team, yet they play inside like children so the weather doesn't affect them.
Stadium Type: Dome
NFL Broadcast Map
Broadcast Station FOX
Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy "I bet he'd like that one back" Aikman
Where to Watch
NFL Red Zone - Provider Participation Required
NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams
Radio Broadcast Information
Need A Ticket?
Head Official Tony Corrente


Panthers Injuries
Player Position Injury Wed Thurs Fri Gameday Status
Mike Adams S Rest DNP FP FP -
Mario Addison DE Hip DNP FP FP -
Vernon Butler DT Shoulder LP FP FP -
Kurt Coleman S Ankle FP FP FP -
Devin Funchess WR Shoulder DNP DNP FP Questionable
Wes Horton DE Rib DNP FP FP -
Matt Kalil T Illness LP DNP LP Questionable
Ryan Kalil C Shoulder LP FP FP -
Cam Newton QB Shoulder LP LP FP -
Greg Olsen TE Foot FP FP FP -
Julius Peppers DE Rest DNP DNP FP -
Jonathan Stewart RB Back LP FP FP -
Shaq Thompson LB Foot LP FP FP -
Trai Turner G Concussion FP FP FP Questionable
Saints Injuries
Player Position Injury Wed Thurs Fri Gameday Status
Trey Hendrickson DE Ankle - LP - Questionable
Terron Armstead T Thigh - LP - Questionable
Michael Thomas WR Hamstring - FP - -
Josh Hill TE Shoulder - FP - -
Justin Hardee CB Foot - FP - -
Michael Hoomanawanui TE Concussion - FP - -


All 2017 expert NFL Picks compared for accuracy. A free, advert-click funded service tracking every analyst at ESPN, Bleacher Report, CBS, FOX, Yahoo!, ProFootballFocus, USA Today, Accuscore, NFL Network,, and more – sorted by season win percentage.
Click HERE for breakdown of all expert picks


Rank Expert Network Season Record % Pick
1 Jeff Ratcliffe 180-76 70% ?
2 Jamey Eisenberg 178-77 69%
3 KC Joyner 178-78 69% ?
4 Kevin Sherrington 177-79 69%
5 PFF Analytics 176-80 68%
6 Mike Clay 174-82 67%
7 Patrick Schmidt 174-82 67% ?
8 Sam Farmer 173-81 68% ?
9 Chris Burke 173-83 67% ?
10 Nate Davis 173-83 67%


Click HERE for complete breakdown of Project FiveThirtyEight predictions for the 2017 season)

Season Prediction

ELO Rating One Week Change Make Divisional Round Make Conf Championship Make Super Bowl Win Super Bowl
1585 - 19 35% 12% 5% 2%
1625 - 33 65% 25% 11% 5%


Trai Turner
Turner practiced in full after being in the concussion protocol following the Week 14 game against the Vikings. While backup Silatolu performed decently in run blocking, his pass protection was downright terrible, especially during Newton's career worst outing against the Falcons in Week 17. Turner will need to bring back some stability to an O Line that visibly missed him in his absence.
Cam Newton
All eyes are on the 2015 NFL MVP to see just how well he can bounce back from his career worst performance in the NFL. Newton finished Week 17 with an atrocious 31.5 passer rating. If fans have any glimmer of hope to look forward to its that Newton has bounced back this season after bad performances. His passer rating in the 7 weeks leading up to the Falcons game see-sawed up and down with 71.0 / 120.4 / 59.8 / 107.5 / 64.9 / 128.0 / 65.4 respectively. The stats would indicate Newton is due for a big game, on the road, against the Saints, who have already beaten him twice.
Run Defense
The second level tacklers have to continue to improve against Kamara and Ingram. Luke, TD and Shaq are all great at reading plays and flying to the ball but the must maintain their lanes to negate cutbacks and as Shaq showed last time these two teams played, they must wrap up to bring down Kamara. If the linebackers do their job it will take some pressure off the youngeolder secondary to hold the back line against explosive chunk plays. Outside of run plays, Luke and Co. must also maintain their discipline against quick screens. This will be Brees’ best weapon against the Carolina pass rush.
Pass Defense
If Carolina can manage to stop the run and Brees is forced to work his magic through the air, a defense that has surrendered nearly 700 yards through the air is going to need to find their magic quickly. While Carolina's secondary has been less than stellar, the return of a struggling Kurt Coleman who still remains the heart and soul of the defensive backfield immediately improves the Panthers ability to stop Brees and company through the air.If you give Brees time he will shred you. In the past two games Brees has used screen plays to avoid our pass rush so they need to do something different to disrupt him. One of Drew’s main faults is his height. If the D line can get a push then get their hands up they have a good chance of batting some quick throws down at the line. Anything they can do to cause Brees to hesitate or mess with his confidence and rhythm will help.
Last but not least we need to see the fun team we’ve seen flashes of this year. We all know by now our team plays much better when they’re free and loose. The Saints cracked down on fun this week taking away the N64 and ping pong tables in the locker room. I don’t know why you’d mess with a formula that got you to 11-6 and a division title but Sean Peyton did. Let’s come out and be the relaxed fun team and let the Saints heavy emphasis on focus be the death of their playoff dreams.


All Time Record: 24-22 (Panthers lead)
Largest Victory: 45-13 (01/02/2000)
Current Streak: 2L
  • Since Cam came to Carolina, the Panthers are 7-7 against the Saints
  • This will be the first time (since the 2002 realignment) that two NFC South teams face each other in the playoffs. Only the AFC East has not had this happen.
  • Despite the series equally split between home and away (12-11 Panthers lead each), both teams tend to score more points in the Saints home.
*Unfortunately, some dire news, when headed in to the postseason to face the team that swept them in the regular season, the swept teams are 2-4 historically.


Points/Game 22.7 (#12) 20.4 (#10) Opp Points/Game
Yards/Game 323.7 (#19) 336.5 (#17) Opp Yards/Game
Points/Play 0.354 (#13) = 0.325 (#13) Opp Points/Play
Yards/Play 5.0 (#19) 5.4 (#22) Opp Yards/Play
3D Conversion % 41.89% (#7) 41.04% (#27) Opp 3D Conv %
4D Conversion % 45.45% (#16) 33.33% (#8) Opp 4D Conv %
RZ Scoring % (TD) 53.85% (#17) 52.08% (#14) Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)
TDs/Game 2.5 (#14) 2.2 (#12) Opp TDs/Game
Points/Game 28.0 (#4) 20.4 (#11) Opp Points/Game
Yards/Game 391.2 (#2) 317.1 (#7) Opp Yards/Game
Points/Play 0.448 (#2) 0.343 (#18) Opp Points/Play
Yards/Play 6.3 (#1) 5.3 (#17) Opp Yards/Play
3D Conversion % 37.63% (#19) 37.86% (#13) Opp 3D Conv %
4D Conversion % 80.00% (#1) 35.00% (#10) Opp 4D Conv %
RZ Scoring % (TD) 58.18% (#8) = 47.73% (#8) Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)
TDs/Game 3.2 (#2) 2.1 (#8) Opp TDs/Game


The Panthers and Saints are meeting for round three, and neither of the first two rounds went well for the Panthers. This statistic doesn't bode well, either: divisional rivals that sweep a season series against their opponent are 13-7 all-time against that same opponent in the playoffs. So no, it's not necessarily harder to beat a team three times in one season. But it's not impossible for the other team to get the upper hand. The most recent time this happened was when the Giants avenged two earlier losses to the Cowboys on their way to the Super Bowl in 2007.
Fittingly, if you flip that record around, it becomes another statistic. Since divisional realignment in 2002, teams from a division that sends three teams to the playoffs are 7-13 in the playoffs, once you throw out games they play against each other. The AFC North sent three reps in 2014 and 2011, the AFC West sent three reps in 2013, the AFC South did it in 2007, and the NFC East did it back to back years in 2007 and 2006. The '07 Giants show up yet again as the only one of these teams to have won the Super Bowl.
A 27-16 win against the Arizona Cardinals in January of 2015. A 23-0 shutout of the New York Giants in January of 2006. And a 29-10 dismantling of the Dallas Cowboys in January of 2004. Yes, it's true. The Panthers are undefeated in the Wild Card Round. The Panthers are the only NFL team to have played at least one game in the Wild Card round and never lost. So, statistically speaking, they will never lose in the Wild Card round. Simple math.
The X-Factor for the Panthers against the Saints will be tight end Greg Olsen. Olsen missed both of the previous games in this series this year and has been healthy for some time now. In 12 career games against the Saints, Olsen averages 53.7 receiving yards per game. He also has 4 touchdowns. Since joining the Panthers, he's second only to Julio Jones in receiving yards against the Saints with 644, and is tied for second with Steve Smith and Terrance Williams in touchdowns. Does he own the Saints? Not really. But he makes a tangible difference when he's on the field.
The Saints will also be fielding a key player for the first time in this season series. Rookie cornerback Marson Lattimore will play the Panthers for the first time, as if our receivers' job wasn't already difficult enough. Lattimore has played 451 snaps in coverage this season and has yet to allow a touchdown. That's right: he has yet to be scored on in his NFL career. He's a candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Devin Funchess is going to have his hands full..well, hopefully he has his hands full with some touchdown catches.


Outlet Rank Last Week Weekly Change Notes
7 7 - It’s not the worst thing to lose on the road to a Falcons team fighting for its playoff life. But it was a lost opportunity, considering the Saints lost. The Panthers would have been NFC South champs with a Week 17 win. It’ll be tough to win this week at the Superdome, a place the Panthers lost 31-21 a month ago.
7 7 - Opponent winning percentage: .539; tied for the fifth-hardest. The 2017 Panthers proved that you don't need to be pass heavy to win. They went 11-5 while averaging 192 passing yards per game. That's the fewest passing yards by an 11-win team since the 2015 Vikings.
7 7 - Recap: The Panthers actually entered Sunday with a chance to capture the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. But that opportunity disappeared when the Vikings won earlier on Sunday. No matter, because Cam Newton and the Carolina offense stalled at Atlanta. The seven-year pro completed less than half of his throws (14-of-34) for only 180 yards. He found wide receiver Devin Funchess for one touchdown but also served up three interception. Carolina’s defensive unit only surrendered one touchdown in the game but the Falcons did roll up 371 total yards against the league’s seventh-ranked defensive unit. Postseason Preview: The Panthers are in the playoffs for the fourth time in five years. But for the first time, they will begin their playoff run on the road. On Sunday at 4:40 pm ET, Rivera’s club returns to the Superdome for the second time in six weeks looking to avenge a pair of losses to the Saints this season. Offseason Priorities: Ageless defensive end Julius Peppers signed a one-year contract to rejoin the team this offseason. Could he return for a 17th NFL campaign? The bigger priority is defensive tackles Star Lotulelei, who could be a candidate for the franchise tag.
9 3 ↓ 6 The offense was unproductive Sunday in Atlanta, as QB Cam Newton was off target in a 14-for-34, three-interception performance. That won’t be nearly good enough against the Saints, who will demand the Panthers put forth a decent scoring performance to keep pace. TE Greg Olsen and RB Christian McCaffrey must be major factors. The defense is good enough. It’s all about whether Newton and the offense will come around.
7 6 ↓ 1 They've only managed as many as 200 passing yards twice in the past 10 games. Might not be explosive enough to make a deep playoff run.
6 6 - The Carolina Panthers are big, they're physical and their defense is going to be a handful for anyone it comes across in the postseason. The problem is there isn't anyone on offense to be scared of other than Cam Newton. Having to go to New Orleans is a postseason problem because the Saints handled the Panthers both times they've faced them this season. Can Carolina find ways to consistently move the ball and make explosive plays against the Saints defense? If not, the Panthers better dial up some creative runs for Newton, because their fate will rest on him.
8 7 ↓ 1 This team is almost as inconsistent as the team below it. Cam Newton's play is confounding. Every time the media says, Look out, the Panthers are letting Cam be Cam and they're going to make a run! ... Carolina lays an egg. Newton was erratic on Sunday, continuing a chain of on-again, off-again performances. Look no further than his in-game passer ratings over the seven games prior to the matchup with the Falcons: 71.0, 120.4, 59.8, 107.5, 64.9, 128.0 and 65.4. I mean, if you're in Charlotte, his play is like Fury 325 at Carowinds. So I guess that means Newton dominates this week, right?
7 5 ↓ 2 They didn't play well on defense the past two weeks -- giving up nearly 700 yards passing -- and that has to be concerning heading to New Orleans.


Team Overall Record Division Division Record Conf Record PF PA Streak
(wxyz) Patriots 13-3 AFC East 5-1 10-2 458 296 W3
(wxyz) Eagles 13-3 NFC East 5-1 10-2 457 295 L1
(xyz) Steelers 13-3 AFC North 6-0 10-2 406 308 W2
(xyz) Vikings 13-3 NFC North 5-1 10-2 382 252 W3
(xy) Rams 11-5 NFC West 4-2 7-5 478 329 L1
(xy) Saints 11-5 NFC South 4-2 8-4 448 326 L1
(y) Panthers 11-5 NFC South 3-3 7-5 363 327 L1
(xy) Jaguars 10-6 AFC South 4-2 9-3 417 268 L2
(xy) Chiefs 10-6 AFC North 5-1 8-4 415 339 W4
(y) Falcons 10-6 NFC South 4-2 9-3 353 315 W1
(y) Titans 9-7 AFC South 5-1 8-4 334 356 W1
(y) Bills 9-7 AFC East 3-3 7-5 302 359 W1
Lions 9-7 NFC North 5-1 8-4 410 376 W1
Ravens 9-7 NFC East 3-3 7-5 395 303 L1
Chargers 9-7 AFC West 3-3 6-6 355 272 W2
Seahawks 9-7 NFC West 4-2 7-5 366 332 L1
Cowboys 9-7 NFC East 5-1 7-5 354 332 W1
Cardinals 8-8 NFC West 3-3 5-7 295 361 W2
Bengals 7-9 AFC North 3-3 6-6 290 349 W2
Packers 7-9 NFC North 2-4 5-7 320 384 L3
Redskins 7-9 NFC East 1-5 5-7 342 388 L1
Raiders 6-10 AFC West 2-4 5-7 301 373 L4
Dolphins 6-10 AFC East 2-4 5-7 281 393 L3
49ers 6-10 NFC West 1-5 3-9 331 383 W5
Broncos 5-11 AFC West 2-4 4-8 289 382 L2
Jets 5-11 AFC East 2-4 5-7 298 382 L4
Buccs 5-11 NFC South 1-5 3-9 335 382 W1
Bears 5-11 NFC North 0-6 1-11 264 320 L1
Colts 4-12 AFC South 2-4 3-9 263 404 W1
Texans 4-12 AFC South 1-5 3-9 338 436 L6
Giants 3-13 NFC East 1-5 1-11 246 388 W1
Browns 0-16 AFC North 0-6 0-12 234 410 L16
  • (w) Clinched Homefield
  • (x) Clinched Division
  • (y) Clinched Playoffs
  • (z) Clinched Bye


Andrew Norwell is the only offensive lineman in the NFL who did not let his quarterback get touched all year. Zero sacks allowed. Zero hits allowed.
Ron Rivera deserves credit for coaching the least penalized team in the league
Norwell and Kuechly selected for 1st team AP All-Pro team
Our mantra for the playoffs. SEEK. STRIKE. DESTROY.
Cam T-shirt Design from Runaway (Durham Clothing Brand)
No one is giving us a chance. The way I like it.
Cam Newton: No need to panic
submitted by JCoxRocks to panthers [link] [comments]


To all EFL members, from Seattle to South Beach, I have one thing to say: Welcome to the fucking show.
It's my pleasure to have EFL around for its 4th year, and it is our #1 goal to improve in every way so that this league becomes the best experience out there for Madden aficionados. With so many new members this year--members that we hope help establish the core of this league for its future--I figured that it would be nice to break the ice with each owner in the best way I know how: by attempting to roast you all and/or your teams. Given, this will be easier as more time passes since I'll get to know people better, but with the opening week roast I aim to establish an EFL tradition that emphasizes our efforts to build a strong Madden community. They may all suck, but some might not; either way, let's have a laugh at someone as we usher in the new league year.
First and foremost, I will touch again on our opening night primetime Games of the Week. Check out the primetime preview for a more in-depth look at these matchups, and expect some fireworks either way. In Game 1, starting at 6pm EST on 8/8, we have cuppa tea Rhys bringing his Chiefs down to exotic Jacksonville to take on Florida Man Plex. After 1.5 hours of bitching about Tyree Jackson, we will move our attention to N'awlins, LA, where bad gal Ry Ry meets Mo, although some people call him Moreece. You don't want to miss these milestone games, folks. We've got the first EFL 20 games, first primetime opener in league history, and Plex's 1000th game of Madden 20 all in the same night. What more can you ask for?
If you're actually asking that question, then look no further for your answer. On Friday, 8/9, EFL opens across the league with a 14-game slate over 3 days to kick things off. Here's a look at these matchups and what to look for (or shield your precious eyes from):
San Francisco 49ers (Theeeverbro) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Asshat)
Our first non-GOTW matchup of the week takes us to boring ass Tampa Bay to see Theeeverbro--new to the NFC as well as the all-22 view--attempt to throw just 4 INTs with Jimmy the Gent against a truly terrifying Tampa Bay defense led by the rotting corpse of Chris Conte. Asshat will look to shut down Jimmy G by getting some pressure from Jason Pierre-Paul, the number one PFF (Person with Four Fingers) defender in all of football.
On the other side of things, we will see Reuben Foster and Solomon Thomas, the defensive weapons Jon Lynch obtained by fleecing Ryan Pace and embarrassing him on draft day, tee off against a weak Tampa Bay offensive line and run game. JK. LOL (go Bears). Theeeverbro will instead look to rookie MAGA bitch Nick Bosa to pick up the slack and fulfill his superstar potential as soon as possible. No matter what happens, the league will be excited to see Theeeverbro coaching this roster on the field in a meaningful game. After all, he had strong conviction on this team and only deliberated a mere 53 days before selecting them.
Cincinnati Bengals (Illmatic) @ Seattle Seahawks (Blaza)
We have our first taste of the unknown in Seattle, as two-time EFL 19 Super Bowl Champion Illmatic takes on newcomer Blaza in a high stakes, winner-take-Ciara showdown. What makes it an unknown, you may ask? Well, not only do we have no tape on Blaza, but we also are playing a Madden title that does NOT feature whip route hot routes for the tight end. Is Illmatic in trouble?
He will probably answer that one with a resounding no, but the hamster living in his bedroom and powering his internet may have some different thoughts on the matter. Nevertheless, he will put his championship pedigree to the test against a rebuilding Seattle squad that is looking to ride the Russell Wilson wave to continued success despite a multitude of losses on defense. Is Blaza up to the challenge? We’ll see soon, but don’t be too quick to count him out. He sounds like a Dodgeball character and is confident in his ability to put the Globo Gym Purple Cobras on his back to get a victory.
Buffalo Bills (Klassick) @ New York Jets (TomDaddy)
EFL history may suggest an emphatic Klassick victory is in store to get the Buffalo era off to the right start. However, let’s take a closer look at the important details in this matchup to see where the advantages stand out the most. This Buffalo squad is take-no-prisoners but take-all-alleged-rapists. After trading prized shorts-wearer Josh Allen, the Bills will hit the gridiron with Shady McCoy, a truly wonderful teammate who does not hold out and also isn’t afraid to speak up [to vulnerable women]. This unique tandem of assault and disrespect will have its opposition fearing for their livelihoods each day, but as long as Ben and Shady win their football games before going home, that opposition should be temporarily be safe.
On the other hand, TomDaddy brings his Jets into Week 1 with a great football mindset. LeVeon Bell will look to keep his performance at an elite level after a historic run with Pittsburgh and a 2018 in which he set a personal career high in blunts smoked on the couch. Bell, who is striving for a second straight championship after leading his fantasy team to its league’s highest honor just a year ago, claims to be in the best shape of his life and ready to do what he does best. Joining Bell in New York is stud linebacker CJ Mosely and standout first round draft pick Quinnen Williams. Unlike the Abuse Amigos in Buffalo, these players are always working to become better teammates, and instead of playing with the safety of their loved ones, they just play with themselves.
Denver Broncos (@damnitBob) @ Oakland Raiders (Guy)
Guy just can’t catch a break these days. First, he lands in a division with English chaps Craig and Rhys, both known to take full advantage of QB mobility when they possess it. But then, Bob goes and trades for the Dak Attack while cutting statue-esque Joe Flacco just moments later. Damnit Bob! Regardless, we’re all praying for your blood pressure, Guy.
With regards to the matchup itself, this one should have plenty of intrigue. If a divisional rivalry isn’t enough to peak your interest, also note that Bob has that VIP Madden access and will probably have some cheat codes to sneak into the game if he starts to fall behind. Yeah, we’re onto you Bob. Guy, on the other hand, will need to take all of that money that Mark Davis spent this past offseason on guys not named Khalil Mack, and translate it into some on-the-field success. The gameplan will surely be to get new all-pro acquisition Antonio Brown off to a hot start. Guy will want to break the ice quickly with Brown and make him feel at home, as you don’t want him getting cold feet about signing with Oakland. If Carr develops some chemistry with Brown then watch out, as Guy could be headed to Flavortown in no time.
Indianapolis Colts (HotRod) @ Los Angeles Chargers (Craig)
Live from a modestly priced Oklahoma City Air BnB townhouse comes a HUGE opening week matchup between two exciting rosters in the middle of Super Bowl contention. Resident tech/graphic design genius Rod will travel from Indy to the outskirts of LA, where he will sit in traffic for about 5 hours before finally reaching the stadium where the Colts will prepare for their first home game of the year against the Chargers.
General Luck will square off against Commander Phillip Rivers and his battalion made up of his own children (Kony 2012). Luck enters this battle with a few more small arms at his disposal in the form of new arrivals Devin Funchess (free agency) and Parris Campbell (draft). The big question here will be whether or not new pass rusher Justin Houston can make his presence felt against a weak LA offensive line. If so, look for the Luck stampede to overwhelm the Rivers family.
Atlanta Falcons (Dusty) @ Minnesota Vikings (Slusha)
Our next EFL showdown takes us to the luscious, pure waters of Lake Minnetonka, where self-proclaimed Green Bay Packer fan Slusha aims to defend his turf against Dusty’s Dirty Birds. Led by non-Hall of Fame quarterback Matt Ryan, this Falcon offense will not be one to take lightly. They feature one of the top WR duos in the league in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley (Roll Tide, Dust) and on the other side of the ball, they weaponize more speed than any defense out there.
To combat this talented Falcons squad, Slusha will turn to his own elite WR combo of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, a tandem that will force the absolute best of the Falcons secondary if they want to keep that Minnesota offense from exploding. Thielen, a scrappy player and real “lunch pail” kind of guy, has gone from unwanted and unknown to a bonafide all-pro talent that is fully deserving of his Top-10 WR status. Minnesota also trots out one of the leagues most talented defenses, which is the real reason why Mitch struggled against them last year. Seriously, give the guy a break, he looked bad on primetime but that asshole Harrison Smith hit him late and the Vikings are super good on defense so it doesn’t mean it’s the end of the world.
…Wait, where was I? Ah yes, the Vikings will look to slow one of the league’s most powerful offenses with elite all-around play from Harrison “Hitman” Smith and a vicious pass rush from Danielle Hunter and Eversen Griffen. Simply put, this game is popcorn time.
New York FOOTBALL Giants (JBell) @ Dallas Cowgirls (Rascrush)
In our first of two NFC East rivalry matchups to begin the season, we will see JBell and the fighting Saquons travel to Jerryworld to take on the new look Dallas Cowboys, fresh off of Rascrush’s patented 19 trades before ever playing a game. While Dallas has a far superior roster on paper, don’t be too quick to count out a fresh JBell ready to make a name for himself. The biggest thing to watch for this game is how rookie Drew Lock fares in his first taste of big boy action. Will Ras regret moving Top-40 quarterback Dak Prescott, or will Lock make Cowboys fans forget all about those lame ass draft picks they received along with him?
Detroit Lions (Pitt4Life) @ Arizona Cardinals (Braves)
In this under-the-radar NFC matchup, the improved defense of the Detroit Lions will look to instill doubt in the minds of Cardinals fans regarding their new star center-fielder Kyler Murray. Head Coach Pitt will look to lean on talented sophomore RB Kerryon Johnson and standout WR Kenny Golladay to dissect an Arizona defense with a lot of youth and potential but a lack of proven playmakers.
Arizona head coach and Colin Kaepernick superfan Braves will try to ease Murray into the action by focusing on a faster start for star running back David Johnson, who will undoubtedly be hungry to rebound from a lackluster 2018 season. Braves was recently asked about the pressure he faces after relieving former head coach Kliff Kingsbury of his duties, and he had the following to say: “I have nothing but great things to say about Kliff’s tenure here in Arizona, and only hope I can live up to his legacy and continue to instill the culture he brought with him here. During his 18 days as coach here, he brought the best out of these players, and it shows both on and off the field. I loved his policy of having the whole team kneel every day out of respect to NFL legend and personal friend of mine, Colin Kaepernick, and I plan on continuing this tradition. I wish him nothing but the best as he pursuits his dream of dancing with the Chippendales all over the world.” Safe to say, the Cardinals will be must-see television as they begin yet another new era.
Green Bay Packers (SpecialK) @ Chicago Bears (Tiller)
Rivalry week continues in full swing as we head to the Windy City to watch Maserati Mitch attempt to avenge last season’s opening night loss at the hands of Aaron Rodgers and his merry band of offensive linemen who have to hold every play to accomplish anything. Many are predicting this division to run through Chicago with Tiller commandeering an incredible defense led by Khalil Mack and Eddie Jackson. Special K will have to put real life friendship to the side for this one if he wants to prove those doubters wrong. Kev, be sure to use Tiller’s wife’s fandom against him and win that mental battle. Either that, or inject your quarterback with some hard drugs before the game.
Los Angeles Rams (MAGA fuckhead) @ Carolina Panthers (Cook)
This Week 1 matchup is of personal interest to me, as we have one of EFL’s most active sim owners in Cook facing off against a member of the Armpit Stain of America Club. I don’t think I’ve ever roasted Cook before and I don’t plan to now, yet I also don’t really need to roast Jtkeer either, as he roasts himself daily with that stupid red hat he wears. He will most likely throw to Todd Gurley in the flat about 18 times per half despite Gurley’s concerning battle with arthritis in his knee. Emotions will battle amongst each other as Jtkeer roots for a Cam Newton injury while simultaneously wishing he could trade his African-American players for Christian McCaffrey. All jokes aside, though, we should expect a fun matchup between two talented rosters as well as no less than 12 racial slurs shouted in Cam’s direction (only 8 of which will be from the opposing head coach).
Baltimore Ravens (Cimmy) @ Miami Dolphins
Watch out folks, this’ll be the most exciting straight sim you’ve ever seen! In reality, I shouldn’t joke about this because we get to avoid watching the Dolphins roster take the field for at least one more week. But I have a feeling we’ll miss out on a solid matchup between two EFL rookie coaches. Everyone will wait another week before seeing Cimmy’s gameplan for Lamar Jackson and whether he will finally pull off that trade for Saquon. I sense a bribe suspension incoming.
Meanwhile, MG is our newest member and the book is still out on him. He’s attempting to break the biggest curse in Madden history: the late 2010s Miami Dolphins roster. After some early moves to begin the ultimate rebuild mission, all eyes are on South Beach to see if they eventually become an NFL team.
Washington Redskins (Ditka) @ Philadelphia Eagles (Dolla)
Here’s what we all came for, folks: the self-roast. Ditka joins the NFC East this year to help with the recovery of one of the NFL’s most historic[ally racist] franchises, and first in his path is the mega-loaded Philadelphia Eagles roster. Ditka seems like an underdog on paper, but Dolla could make things interesting if he gets off his game by nutting at the sight of his first RPO completion. The R-Words, on the other hand, will turn to rookie QB Dwayne Haskins and powerful young RB Derrius Guice to keep this game at the tempo they like if they hope to keep things competitive. If the game becomes uncompetitive, definitely expect Ditka to bitch about it in chat. He thinks he’s turned a new leaf, but he can’t escape who he is. Boom! Got ‘em. If Ditka is smart and can keep his emotions in check, he’ll blame the loss on something natural like internet connection or fatigue since he’s moving into a new house Saturday. Or maybe he’ll just call it a tank job until Week 2. He’s got plenty of options, whereas Dolla only prefers two: Run or Pass. That’s a full-circle roast right there since Dolla loves RPOs. Get it?
Pittsburgh Steelers (Adrian) @ New England Patriots (Elmayimbe)
In this alternate history timeline, Rocky Balboa’s wife has joined the sports world herself as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers and will look to return the team back to their hard-nosed, run-first ways of past years. After the departure of Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger, the offense now belongs to Juju Smith-Schuster, as long his bicycle doesn’t pop a tire on his way to the stadium. Feeding him targets will be the Cannon in Shorts, Josh Allen, who will need to improve as a passer in his second year to give fans hope that he can be a franchise QB.
Speaking of franchise QBs, the Patriots will look to develop Jarett Stidham right away after the retirement of kiddy-kisser Tom Brady, a system QB. Wait, Brady is back? Oh. Well then, Tom Brady returns for his age-74 season to throw some dimes against tight zone coverages that feature defenders less than 20 yards away from receivers. You hear it every year, but don’t bet against this man.
Tennessee Titans (Smalls) @ Cleveland Browns (Bluto)
Last but certainly not least on the schedule for Week 1, we get to see the all-of-a-sudden must watch Cleveland Browns in their first game since landing star WR Odell Beckham Jr. in the offseason. In a game surely to make Colin Cowherd squirm, Baker Mayfield will be expected to build upon a solid rookie campaign in which he nearly led the Browns out of the gutter and into the playoffs.
The Titans, on the other hand, remain one of the NFL’s most perplexing teams. Are they contenders or overrated? Many continue to expect improvement from the team as well as QB Marcus Mariota, and with a defense as talented as Tennessee’s, a playoff run shouldn’t be out of the question. Maybe a coaching change is what will spark the run in Nashville. Get well soon, Smalls, your team needs you.
Good luck, EFL. I hope to improve my roasts as I get to know everyone a little better.
submitted by jamaicanitrain to maddenEFL [link] [comments]

Week 10 - Panthers vs Dolphins - Pregame Report


TEAM Record Against the Spread
MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-4) 3-3-2
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Spread Consensus: Carolina -10
OveUnder: 38.5 Take the under!
Bank of America Stadium - 8:30 PM - November 13, 2017
WEATHER FORECAST: Forecast: Monday Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 63F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Monday Night Partly cloudy. Low around 40F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph..
Stadium Type: Open Air
NFL Broadcast Map
Broadcast Station ESPN
Announcers: Sean McDonough and Jon Gruden
Where to Watch
NFL Red Zone - Provider Participation Required
NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams
Radio Broadcast Information
Need A Ticket?
Head Official Gene Steratore


Panthers Injuries
Player Position Injury Thu Fri Sat Gameday Status
Mike Adams S Concussion FP FP - -
Kaelin Clay WR Ribs - FP - -
Mike Adams S Concussion FP FP - -
Graham Gano K Right Knee FP FP - -
Ryan Kalil C Neck DNP DNP - -
Chris Manhertz TE Concussion LP FP - -
Cam Newton QB Right Shoulder LP FP - -
Curtis Samuel WR Ankle LP FP - -
Graham Gano K Right Knee FP FP - -
Jonathan Stewart RB Toe FP FP - -
John Theus T Concussion LP FP - -
Trai Turner G Knee FP FP - -
Dolphins Injuries
Player Position Injury Thu Fri Sat Gameday Status
Ndamukong Suh DT - DNP LP - -
Mike Pouncey C Hip LP LP - -
Jakeem Grant WR Illness DNP LP - -
Bobby McCain CB Hamstring LP FP -
Mike Hull LB ShouldeAnkle LP FP - -
Ja’Wuan James OT Knee DNP DNP - -
Michael Thomas S Knee DNP DNP - -
Jay Cutler QB Ribs FP FP - -
William Hayes DE Hamstring FP FP - -
Ted Larsen G Biceps FP FP - -


All 2017 expert NFL Picks compared for accuracy. A free, advert-click funded service tracking every analyst at ESPN, Bleacher Report, CBS, FOX, Yahoo!, ProFootballFocus, USA Today, Accuscore, NFL Network,, and more – sorted by season win percentage.
Click HERE for breakdown of all expert picks


Rank Expert Network Season Record % Pick
1 Jamey Eisenberg 89-44 66%
2 Jeff Ratcliffe 89-44 66%
3 Patrick Schmidt 89-44 66%
4 Neil Greenberg 76-39 66%
5 Jared Dubin 87-46 65%
6 PFF Analytics 87-46 65%
7 Pickwatch Fan Picks 87-46 65%
8 Accuscore 86-46 65%
9 Numberfire 85-46 64%
10 Brandon George 86-47 64%


Click HERE for complete breakdown of Project FiveThirtyEight predictions for the 2017 season)

Season Prediction

ELO Rating One Week Change Pred Wins Pred Losses Playoffs? Win Division Win Super Bowl
1544 + 14 9.8 6.2 51% 23% 2%
1457 - 17 6.9 9.1 15% 3% <1%


Christian McCaffery
CMC has been productive in the passing game all season long, but has struggled against stacked boxes in the run game. In the first game of the post KB era he faced much more favorable conditions against Atlanta, racking up 66yd and his first rushing TD. However he faces a tough team in Miami (7th in Rush Def) Sunday. If the passing game and read option can cause the defense to hesitate look to CMC to make some extra effort big plays.
Mike Palardy
Special teams players don't often get the credit they deserve, but this sub has done a good job showering M(v)P with the love. Solidly in the top 10 in net and gross punting yards in the league he's become a real weapon for the Panthers to flip the field. Jakeem Grant hasn't been as explosive in the return game this year, but still has the speed and shiftiness to break a big one. Look to Palardy to keep that from happening this week.
Captain Munnerlyn
Miami's most dangerous offensive weapon remaining is Jarvis Landry. The Phins love to throw to Landry- he just passed Anquan Boldin for the most receptions through the first four seasons of a career. For most of Sunday, a man equal in stature will be covering Landry. Captain will need to be on point to not let the shifty slot WR get away from him on short yardage plays.


All Time Record: 4-1 (Dolphins lead)
Largest Victory: 20-16 (11/24/2013)
Current Streak: 1W
  • Since Cam came to Carolina, the Panthers are 1-0 against the Dolphins.
  • The Panthers, up till 2013, had generally been put down by the Dolphins. Even with their one win, the Panthers have their 3rd worst head-to-head record against the Dolphins, only behind the Broncos and Steelers.
  • Some interesting facts
    • The Panthers never beat the Dolphins until John Kasay was replaced by former Dolphins kicker, Olindo Mare, then subsequently Graham Gano.
    • In all 4 losses, neither team scored in the 3rd quarter. In the 1 win, only the Panthers scored in the 3rd quarter.
    • Panthers had twice as many sacks in their 1 win than in their 4 losses.
    • Ted Ginn Jr. has beat the Panthers as a Dolphin, and the Dolphins as a Panther.
    • Funny enough, the Dolphin's QB that had their highest rated performance against the Panthers, Ryan Tannehill in their only loss.


Points/Game 18.7 (#24) 22.4 (#16) Opp Points/Game
Yards/Game 313.1 (#21) 315.4 (#10) Opp Yards/Game
Points/Play 0.287 (#24) 0.382 (#25) Opp Points/Play
Yards/Play 4.8 (#26) 5.4 (#21) Opp Yards/Play
3D Conversion % 43.41% (#5) 36.08% (#11) Opp 3D Conv %
4D Conversion % 33.33% (#21) 33.33% (#12) Opp 4D Conv %
RZ Scoring % (TD) 46.43% (#25) 72.22% (#31) Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)
TDs/Game 1.8 (#28) 2.6 (#17) Opp TDs/Game
Points/Game 14.5 (#32) 17.7 (#4) Opp Points/Game
Yards/Game 270.2 (#31) 274.1 (#1) Opp Yards/Game
Points/Play 0.235 (#31) 0.316 (#10) Opp Points/Play
Yards/Play 4.4 (#32) 4.9 (#7) Opp Yards/Play
3D Conversion % 31.00% (#31) 33.04% (#5) Opp 3D Conv %
4D Conversion % 18.18% (#26) 28.57% (#9) Opp 4D Conv %
RZ Scoring % (TD) 66.67% (#3) 64.71% (#29) Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)
TDs/Game 1.6 (#31) 1.9 (#7) Opp TDs/Game


We'll be talking about Julio Jones's drop for years. But it was emblematic of Carolina's biggest defensive struggle this season. On what was probably the biggest defensive play of Carolina's season to that point, there wasn't a defender in sight. And it wasn't a fluke, it was a trend. Carolina has intercepted or defensed only 5.2 percent of passes thrown against them, which is the lowest mark in the NFL per Pro Football Focus. Thieves Ave. is full of potholes these days.
That doesn't necessarily mean that the defense is incapable of making plays when it matters. On both 3rd & 1 and 4th & 1 plays this season, Carolina has only allowed 12 conversions out of 25 attempts. That's a 48% success rate for Carolina's opponents, which ranks 4th in the league. And that's a large part of why Carolina has already matched its wins total from last season.
I (dialaview) have to eat some crow here. I was way down on Michael Palardy during the offseason and training camp, and I was utterly, utterly convinced that MVLee would beat him at the punter position battle. I was dumbstruck when the Panthers cut Lee and went with Palardy. And he's been amazing all year. His 46.9 net punting average across the past three weeks ranks first in the league, as well as his number of punts downed inside the 20 (8). The field position game is important, and Palardy is helping us win it.
The Panthers, as a relatively young franchise, have played a mere 15 games on Monday Night Football. Meanwhile, their opponents, the Dolphins, have played on Monday night a whopping 82 times, more than any other team. That said, the Panthers have done well in their limited MNF action, with 9 wins to 6 losses forming a record of .600 on Monday night, which is fourth in NFL history (Seattle is first with a 24-8 record for .750). The Dolphins are an even .500.
This number should excite everyone. Thanks to some next-gen stats, we know just how good of a game CMC had on Sunday. He averaged not just 1.02 yards before contact, but 1.02 yards before defenders were within a yard of him. That's oddly specific, sure, but when you consider that his average for the first eight weeks was negative, and that the NFL average is a fifth of a yard, you have to start getting excited for his no-doubt growing role in the offense.


Outlet Rank Last Week Weekly Change Notes
10 10 - It’s rare to see an NFL game anymore in which a team only has three players catch a pass. Yet, that’s what happened with the Panthers, as Devin Funchess, Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel accounted for all 13 receptions from Cam Newton. The first game without Kelvin Benjamin produced only 137 passing yards and I’m still not entirely sure that trade made sense, but they got a big win over the Falcons without him.
11 12 ↑ 1 It might not be the prettiest of climbs, but the Panthers have risen in the rankings despite the drama surrounding Cam Newton. His passing hasn't been on point, with 10 touchdowns to 11 interceptions so far this season, but he has picked up the running, accumulating 251 rush yards the past four games, 11th in the NFL in that span.
8 8 - Recap: After looking pretty inept for the vast majority of the first two quarters against the visiting Atlanta Falcons (including 2 lost fumbles by running back Jonathan Stewart), there was a dramatic reversal of fortunes in regards to Ron Rivera’s club. Two touchdowns in the final 1:55 of the first half gave the Panthers a 14-10 advantage. Carolina would eventually stretch that to a 10-point lead and then had to hold off a late Atlanta rally. Cam Newton didn’t throw a touchdown pass or turn over the ball. But he had 86 of the team’s impressive 201 yards on the ground, including a sensational nine-yard TD leap. Next Week: The Panthers get an extra day to prepare for the inconsistent Miami Dolphins. Adam Gase’s team has managed to remain in the playoff race despite the fact that the team has been dreadful on offense and been shut out twice this season. The Dolphins’ revived defensive front could give Newton and company all they can handle. Playoff Hopes: Back-to-back divisional wins have the Panthers right in the thick of this NFC South race. The club has already equaled last season’s victory total and could be on the verge of getting on a roll. Carolina’s defense has begun to reassert itself and the team in general has remained within shouting distance of the first-place Saints.
9 12 ↑ 3 Not much has come easily this season for the Panthers, and last week’s curious trade-deadline deal of WR Kelvin Benjamin was the latest issue to make things seem less than ideal. But the Panthers continue to play well through it all, and the win over the Falcons means that they are the primary challenger to the Saints in the NFC South.
6 12 ↑ 6 If Carolina thought Cam Newton might spread ball more without WR Kelvin Benjamin, well, he completed passes to just three receivers Sunday.
8 9 ↑ 1 The Carolina Panthers are figuring out who they are this season, and positive results are following. This is a team that can win with sound defense, power rushing and a few big plays from Cam Newton each game. Newton isn't going to slice up defenses with any kind of consistency, but he doesn't have to. As long as he takes care of the ball, keeps defenses off-balance with his running ability and hits a few deep shots each week, the Panthers are going to win more often than not. I'd still like to see Carolina get more from its running backs, but sticking with the run is what's important. It helps eliminate turnovers and allows the Panthers to play through their defense, which is special in the front seven. Unlike the Denver Broncos, the Panthers know how to get out of their own way. They're going to stay in the playoff race all season and are going to be dangerous if they get in.
11 13 ↑ 2 Very quietly, Carolina has put together two straight wins on the strength of its defense and jussst enough offense to get by, with 20 points against the Falcons on Sunday, 17 the week before. Cam Newton reprised the role of his 2012 self (or resurrected Bobby Douglass from 1972), piling up 86 yards and a touchdown on nine carries. He threw for only 137 yards, which wasn't even good enough for 1972. That's OK, because the defense stone-walled the Falcons' run game -- and Matty looks like he's running on Ice when he takes off. Next up: Dolphins.
9 13 ↑ 4 They are tied for the division lead after beating the Falcons with the re-emergence of Cam Newton as a playmaker. They next face Miami Monday at home.


Team Overall Record Division Division Record Conf Record PF PA Streak
Eagles 8-1 NFC East 3-0 6-0 283 179 W7
Steelers 6-2 AFC North 3-0 4-1 167 131 W3
Patriots 6-2 AFC East 1-0 3-1 216 179 W4
Saints 6-2 NFC South 2-0 5-1 221 155 W6
Vikings 6-2 NFC North 2-1 4-1 179 135 W4
Rams 6-2 NFC West 2-1 4-2 263 155 W3
Chiefs 6-3 AFC North 2-1 4-2 253 208 L1
Seahawks 5-2 NFC West 3-0 4-2 211 165 W1
Panthers 6-3 NFC South 2-1 4-3 168 159 W2
Titans 5-3 AFC South 2-1 4-3 181 193 W3
Jaguars 5-3 AFC South 2-1 5-2 206 117 W2
Bills 5-3 AFC East 1-1 3-2 174 149 L1
Cowboys 5-3 NFC East 2-0 4-2 226 178 W3
Dolphins 4-4 AFC East 1-1 3-3 116 179 L2
Falcons 4-4 NFC South 0-1 3-1 170 172 L1
Lions 4-4 NFC North 2-0 4-3 206 186 W1
Redskins 4-4 NFC East 0-3 3-3 177 194 W1
Packers 4-4 NFC North 1-2 3-4 181 191 L3
Ravens 4-5 NFC East 2-1 4-3 190 171 L1
Raiders 4-5 AFC West 1-2 4-4 196 214 W1
Jets 4-5 AFC East 2-3 4-4 191 207 W1
Cardinals 4-5 NFC West 2-2 3-5 155 223 L2
Texans 3-5 AFC South 1-2 3-4 229 208 L2
Bengals 3-5 AFC North 1-2 3-4 129 158 L1
Bears 3-5 NFC North 0-2 1-5 134 171 L1
Chargers 3-5 AFC West 2-2 2-4 150 152 L1
Broncos 3-5 AFC West 2-2 2-3 150 198 L4
Colts 3-6 AFC South 1-2 2-3 162 260 W1
Bucs 2-6 NFC South 0-2 2-4 158 198 L5
Giants 1-7 NFC East 0-2 0-6 129 207 L2
Browns 0-8 AFC North 0-3 0-7 119 202 L8
49ers 0-9 NFC West 0-4 0-8 143 239 L9
  • (x) Clinched Division
  • (z) Clinched Bye
  • (y) Clinched Playoff Berth


Panthers Defense is #1
J-Stew, CMC, of Fozzy put on a special performance
Carolina rookies rank 2nd in all purpose yards
Olsen added to broadcast team for Rams V Vikings during Carolina bye week.
The Drop heard round the world
#FireShula Banner Update
Cam's newest controversial statement
Kawann Short 4th in Pressure Rate by interior DL
BannanaGooP Breaks down Monday's Game
submitted by PanthersExtraPoints to panthers [link] [comments]

Week 6 - Panthers vs Eagles Pregame Report


TEAM Record Against the Spread
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Spread Consensus: Carolina -3
OveUnder: 45
Bank of America Stadium - 8:25 PM ET PM ET - October 12, 2017
WEATHER FORECAST: Forecast: Cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High around 80F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Rain showers in the evening becoming a steady light rain overnight. Low 64F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70%
Stadium Type: Open Air
NFL Broadcast Map
Broadcast Station CBS
Announcers: Jim Nance and Tony Romo
Where to Watch
Need A Ticket?
Head Official [DON'T KNOW YET]()


Panthers Injuries
Player Position Injury Mon Tue Wed Gameday Status
Mario Addison DE Knee DNP DNP FP -
Kurt Coleman S Knee DNP DNP DNP Out
Demetrious Cox S Ankle DNP DNP DNP Out
Devin Funchess WR Knee DNP DNP FP -
Matt Kalil LT Groin DNP LP FP -
Ryan Kalil C Neck DNP DNP DNP Out
Tyler Larsen C Shoulder DNP DNP FP -
Cam Newton QB Mouth/Shoulder LP LP LP -
Julius Peppers DE Shoulder DNP LP FP -
Jontathan Stewart RB Ankle DNP LP FP -
Daryl Worley CB Ankle DNP DNP FP -
Eagles Injuries
Player Position Injury Mon Tue Wed Gameday Status
Beau Allen DT Foot LP LP LP Questionable
Fletcher Cox DT Calf LP FP FP Questionable
Ronald Darby CB Ankle DNP DNP DNP Out
Corey Graham S Hamstring FP FP FP -
Jordan Hicks LB Ankle FP FP FP -
Lane Johnson T Concussion DNP DNP DNP Out
Chris Long DE Foot LP LP LP Questionable
Rodney McLeod S Hamstring FP FP FP -
Wendell Smallwood RB Knee DNP DNP DNP Questionable
Destiny Vaeao DT Wrist LP LP LP Questionable
Haylen Watkins S Hamstring FP FP FP Questionable


All 2017 expert NFL Picks compared for accuracy. A free, advert-click funded service tracking every analyst at ESPN, Bleacher Report, CBS, FOX, Yahoo!, ProFootballFocus, USA Today, Accuscore, NFL Network,, and more – sorted by season win percentage.
Click HERE for breakdown of all expert picks


Rank Expert Network Season Record % Pick
1 Patrick Scmidt 52-25 67%
5 Accuscore 50-26 65%
2 Brandon George 50-27 64%
3 Harry Lyles Jr 50-27 64%
4 Jeff Ratcliffe 50-27 64%
6 FiveThirtyEight 49-28 63%
7 Jamey Eisenberg 49-28 63%
8 Kayla Knierim 49-28 63%
9 PFF Analytics 49-28 63%
10 Michael Irvin 47-27 63% ?


Click HERE for complete breakdown of Project FiveThirtyEight predictions for the 2017 season)

Season Prediction

ELO Rating One Week Change Pred Wins Pred Losses Playoffs? Win Division Win Super Bowl
1554 + 18 10 6 60% 31% 4%
1572 + 22 10.8 5.2 78% 67% 6%



Curtis Samuel

Now that CMC has opened his scoring account in the NFL, will his fellow rookie follow suit? Samuel missed a lot of training camp and the preseason and he's been playing catch-up ever since. Even when you count his touches on kick returns, the Panthers have only been able to get the ball in Samuel's hands nine times this season. He's shown flashes of brilliance, but he has yet to get a clearly defined role in the offense.

Jonathan Stewart

Philly has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the league, but that's largely because most of their opponents have been playing from behind all season. If you look at it by rushing yards per attempt, Philly becomes a middle-of-the-pack team, and that means J-Stew has a favorable matchup. Stewart has not shown his age at all this season with punishing run after punishing run, and if he can set a strong tone for the Panthers run game on Thursday, look out.

Ed Dickson

Will lightning strike twice? Dickson had the game of his life against the Lions and with Olsen still several weeks away from returning to the field, Dickson has the TE1 spot on lock. How does he match up against Philly? In their five games thus far, Philly has allowed 25 receptions for 234 yards and 2 TDs to tight ends. It's not their glaring weakness, but it's not their greatest strength, either.


James Bradberry

The Eagles rank in the top ten in most passing categories, including fifth in total yards and ninth in yards per game. Carson Wentz is coming off of a career day against the Cardinals, and Bradberry will likely match up against Alshon Jeffrey, who leads Eagles WRs in targets and receptions, although Nelson Agholor has more touchdowns and receiving yards. But neither of those players are the most dangerous pass-catchers on the Eagles roster...

Luke Kuechly

That honor belongs to Eagles tight end Zach Ertz, and Luke will likely be responsible for his coverage. Ertz has 48 targets, 32 receptions, and 387 yards, all of which lead all Eagles players. He also has two touchdowns to his credit, and if the Panthers wish to truly shut down the Eagles' passing attack, they will have to start by shutting down the connection between Wentz and Ertz.

Kawann Short

The other means of shutting down that connection is attacking Wentz himself, something KK Short probably can't wait to do. As discussed in the below By The Numbers section, Short leads all interior linemen with five sacks (tied with Michael Bennett) and will hope to add to that number against an Eagles offensive line that has already given up 13 sacks on the season.


Panthers O Line vs Eagles D Line

The Panthers run blocking has been pretty weak this season. Last week in Detroit was a low mark for the season with the Panthers only gaining 28 rushing yards and 1.5ypc. If it weren't for JStew's amazing yards after contact stats it would be worse. According to NextGenStats, the Lions averaged having a defender within a yard of our backs 2 yards into the backfield. Philadelphia has the 2nd best rush defense in the league; giving up just 62yd/gm. Ryan Kalil won't be back by Thursday so it'll be interesting to see if the coaching staff can find ways to get the offensive line back into the running game.

Panthers Secondary vs Wentz

The secondary has been full of new faces this season, but despite that Carolina ranks 5th in passing defense at less than 200yd/gm. Meanwhile Carson Wentz and the Eagles come in 8th in passing offense with 259yd/gm. Something has to give. Wentz has looked really good so far this season- 1,362, 10TD, 3INT, 69.6QBR- but he also looked fantastic through week 5 last season before falling off into mediocrity. Colin Jones and Jairus Byrd played well in Coleman's absence last week and aside from a pair of costly penalties Worley did too. With Worley and Bradberry on the Injury Report there's a lot of questions going into this matchup.

Panthers Kick Return vs Jake Elliott

Carolina hasn't done great on kick returns this year averaging just 18.9 between Curtis Samuel and Christian McCaffery. Add to that a successfully executed strategy by the Eagles last week of kicking the ball just shy of a touchback and you have the potential for tough starts for the offense. Elliott pinned the Cardinals deep on 3 straight kickoffs Sunday and based on the successful results you can count on him doing it against Carolina. The KR team needs to really work on setting some seams Thursday and Samuel will need avoid any more early kneeling. Otherwise the offense could find itself in some deep starts.


All Time Record: 6-4 (Eagles lead)
Largest Victory: 33-7 (11/07/1999)
Current Streak: 1W
  • Since Cam came to Carolina, the Panthers are 2-1 against the Eagles.
  • The one loss we had was a primetime game in 2014, which has since become known as the "Smoothie Game". For those who don't know about this, before the first half had ended, the Eagles had pretty much taken a commanding lead, 31-7, over the Panthers. The game had become so noncompetitive in favor of the Eagles, that the commentators actually took the time to stop talking about the game and "literally start making smoothies". By this point in the season, Carolina had lost in several blowouts as well, so this was a dark spot in Panthers history that may conjure up PTSD among fans.
  • Luckily, we don't have to end this on a down note. The Panthers have faced the Eagles in the the 2003 NFC champioship game. Most notably, this took place a week after the famous "X-Clown" OT win over the St. Louis Los Angeles Rams. After a low scoring game in which Carolina demolished the Eagles' QBs, to the tune of 4 interceptions, and also a punt return fumble recovery, the Panthers would come out with the win that would send them to Houston to face the Patriots in Super Bowl 38.


Points/Game 21.0 (#18) 19.8 (#13) Opp Points/Game
Yards/Game 327.2 (#18) 346.0 (#22) Opp Yards/Game
Points/Play 0.337 (#17) 0.343 (#16) Opp Points/Play
Yards/Play 5.2 (#14) 6.0 (#29) Opp Yards/Play
3D Conversion % 50.00% (#2) 35.09% (#5) Opp 3D Conv %
4D Conversion % 0.0%(#) 33.33% (#9) Opp 4D Conv %
RZ Scoring % (TD) 43.75% (#26) 46.15% (#10) Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)
TDs/Game 2.0 (#20) 2.4 (#18) Opp TDs/Game
Points/Game 27.4 (#6) 18.8 (#8) Opp Points/Game
Yards/Game 397.8 (#3) = 274.0 (#3) Opp Yards/Game
Points/Play 0.397 (#8) 0.330 (#14) Opp Points/Play
Yards/Play 5.8 (#9) 4.8 (#4) Opp Yards/Play
3D Conversion % 53.42% (#1) 38.10% (#10) Opp 3D Conv %
4D Conversion % 75.00% (#4) 33.33% (#9) Opp 4D Conv %
RZ Scoring % (TD) 58.82% (#9) 63.64% (#28) Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)
TDs/Game 2.8 (#8) 2.0 (#7) Opp TDs/Game


Five receptions. One hundred and seventy-five yards. And 35 sets a new NFL record for average yards per catch by a tight end (with a minimum of five receptions). It's safe to say that no one could have predicted Ed Dickson's offensive explosion, where he also became the only player in Panthers history with two catches of 50+ yards in the same game. Ed Dickson may not have a third leg, but he could have fooled me.
That's the Panthers' all-time record on Thursdays: 3 wins, 5 losses. All of those games have come since 2009, and all of them were on Thursday Night Football save for the Panthers' win over the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving 2015. The average score of those games is 23-18, and the Panthers' all-time point differential in those games is -39. For the record, the Eagles are 8-5 on Thursdays since the merger, and their win percentage of .615 ranks 3rd overall. The team with the best Thursday record is the Colts (13-2) and the worst is the Bucs (2-7). The Panthers rank 26th overall, and have actually played the least Thursday games of any team in the NFL.
Kawann Short rushed the passer 30 times against the Lions, and on four of those instances he recorded a pressure on Matthew Stafford, good for 12.5%. Three of them were sacks! On the season, his percentage is 9.9% which is good for 9th in the league among interior defenders, and in fact his five sacks tie him for first at that position with Michael Bennett.
Devin Funchess has emerged as a bona fide WR2 this season. He's already surpassed his 23 receptions last season with 24 this season, and we're only five weeks into the season! Even better, he's recorded those 24 receptions without dropping the ball once. That ties him for fourth in the NFL with Minnesota's Adam Thielen, behind Doug Baldwin (27), Pierre Garcon (28), and Antonio Brown (40).
For the first time in his career, Shaq Thompson played every single defensive snap in a game, including a couple of snaps at safety! In what may or may not be related, Thomas Davis played about half the snaps Shaq did. I don't think the changing of the guard is necessarily here quite yet, but it's clear that Shaq's role is increasing.


Outlet Rank Last Week Weekly Change Notes
5 8 ↑ 3 That’s two straight great games from Cam Newton. If that’s what we can expect from Newton going forward – and the last two weeks were reminiscent of his MVP season – then the Panthers can be Super Bowl contenders.
6 13 ↑ 7 Cam Newton is completing 68 percent of his passes this season, and he has thrown for 300 yards and three touchdowns in consecutive games for the first time in his career. His performance has the Panthers with the fourth-best chances of making the playoffs in the NFC.
6 8 ↑ 2 Recap: With free safety Kurt Coleman sidelined, the Panthers added three-time Pro Bowler Jairus Byrd to the defense this week. And he would seem some action in this contest. More importantly, the Detroit Lions got a heavy dose of Cam Newton. He would hit on 26 of his 33 passes for 355 yards and three touchdowns while the team played turnover-free football. Newton did overcome threw sacks and and a ground game that produced only 28 yards on as many attempts. Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford wasn’t as luck, dropped six times by Carolina’s aggressive pass rush.Next Week: It’s a short week for Rivera and company as well as their opposition. The 4-1 Philadelphia Eagles come to Charlotte on Thursday night riding a three-game winning streak. Second-year quarterback Carson Wentz and the Birds made quick work of the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday in Philadelphia. Sparks will be flying in prime time.Playoff Hopes: Due to the fact that the Atlanta Falcons were off this past week, the Panthers are now alone atop the NFC South with a 4-1 record. Of course, that one loss was a home setback to the New Orleans Saints. Rivera’s club has yet to face the other teams within the division. But you have to like the look of these Panthers.
5 8 ↑ 3 QB Cam Newton has completed 48 of 62 passes for 671 yards with six TDs and one interception in his past two games. His return from shoulder surgery was gradual but now he has emerged as an accurate pocket passer who clearly has changed his game, with a relatively modest 90 rushing yards this season. Newton was criticized last week, and rightfully so, after his sexist remark for which he later apologized. But things are going extremely well on the field, and if this continues he will be an MVP candidate again and the Panthers will be Super Bowl contenders once more.
2 11 ↑ 9 Cam Newton's mouth is still in preseason form, but his surgically repaired shoulder now appears to be back to his 2015 MVP form.
4 11 ↑ 7 The Panthers are for real, and Cam Newton is officially back. He had an awesome game, and the Panthers needed it against the Lions. Running the ball against Detroit's massive front didn't go so well.If Newton can keep playing like he did Sunday, the Panthers are going to be a tough out come December. They've been finding different ways to win games. This is a team built to lean on the run, but it can win with the pass and with efficient defense.Is the defense perfect? No. There are still some questions in the secondary. However, it looks a lot more like the 2015 version than last year's. Everyone knows about Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, but it's the front four who really make me say "wow" when I turn on the game film.Carolina is one of the best teams in the NFC.
5 11 ↑ 6 After creating a ruckus with some crude social commentary off the field, Cam Newton delivered some inspired play on it. The QB simply overwhelmed the Lions in the Motor City, passing for 355 yads and three touchdowns in Carolina's 27-24 win. The key throw? Third-and-8 with the two-minute warning approaching and the Lions out of timeouts. Newton fired the ball into Kelvin Benjamin on a slant, in front of the corner and before the safety could close. Accurate, with zip and, most importantly, clutch. I thought his apology was on point, too.
6 7 ↑ 1 Cam Newton is back playing like he did in 2015 when he was the MVP. He faces a good Eagles front this week.


Team Overall Record Division Division Record Conf Record PF PA Streak
Chiefs 5-0 AFC North 1-0 3-0 164 111 W5
Eagles 4-1 NFC East 2-0 3-0 137 99 W3
Packers 4-1 NFC North 1-0 3-1 137 112 W3
Panthers 4-1 NFC South 0-1 2-1 105 94 W2
Broncos 3-1 AFC West 2-0 2-1 98 74 W1
Falcons 3-1 NFC South 0-0 3-0 104 89 L1
Bills 3-2 AFC East 1-0 2-1 89 74 L1
Jaguars 3-2 AFC South 1-1 3-2 139 83 W1
Steelers 3-2 AFC North 2-0 2-1 99 89 L1
Seahawks 3-2 NFC West 2-0 2-1 110 87 W2
Jets 3-2 AFC East 1-1 3-2 92 106 W3
Lions 3-2 NFC North 1-0 3-2 123 97 L1
Vikings 3-2 NFC North 1-1 3-1 99 93 W1
Ravens 3-2 NFC East 2-1 3-2 90 97 W1
Patriots 3-2 AFC East 0-0 1-1 148 142 W1
Rams 3-2 NFC West 1-1 2-2 152 121 L1
Dolphins 2-2 AFC East 0-1 2-1 41 67 L2
Saints 2-2 NFC South 1-0 1-1 93 78 W2
Bucs 2-2 NFC South 0-0 2-1 85 83 L1
Redskins 2-2 NFC East 0-1 1-1 91 89 L1
Raiders 2-3 AFC West 0-1 2-2 108 109 L3
Texans 2-3 AFC South 1-1 2-3 144 130 L1
Cowboys 2-3 NFC East 1-0 2-2 125 132 L2
Bengals 2-3 AFC North 1-1 2-2 84 83 W2
Titans 2-3 AFC South 1-1 1-3 110 142 L2
Cardinals 2-3 NFC West 1-0 1-3 81 125 L1
Colts 2-3 AFC South 0-0 1-0 97 159 W1
Bears 1-4 NFC North 0-2 0-4 78 124 L2
Chargers 1-4 AFC West 0-2 0-3 99 115 W1
49ers 0-5 NFC West 0-3 0-4 89 120 L5
Browns 0-5 AFC North 0-3 0-5 77 124 L5
Giants 0-5 NFC East 0-2 0-4 82 122 L5
  • (x) Clinched Division
  • (z) Clinched Bye
  • (y) Clinched Playoff Berth


4th Grader Sends Letter to Devin Funchess
Panthers will Honor Sam Mills with #51 Patch On Helmets Thursday Night
Daryl Williams Graded #1 Tackle by PFF in Week 5 Top 5 Eagles-Panthers Games
Grill Bill: Prevent defenses, early timeouts and tacos
CBS Sports: How Cam Newton and the Panthers Offense Got their Groove Back
Thomas Davis: "Eagles Game is Fight for #1 Seed
Cam Newton Highest Graded QB for the week by PFF
Stitched Thomas Davis Jerseys now Available for Purchase
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NFL Betting: Analyzing the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2020 season win total. Pittsburgh Steelers 2020 season win total preview: However, both of those spots come against the Joe Burrow-led Cincinnati Bengals, who many expect to have another tough year in 2020. While that could make two potentially simple games tougher, it also lessens the NFL Week 12 Betting Preview: Steelers currently a 7-point favorite at the Bengals New, 4 comments Even after the disastrous offensive performance against the Browns, the Steelers are a touchdown Betting market: The Steelers are unsurprisingly a trendy road dog in Cincinnati vs. the AFC North-leading Bengals. At the time of writing, this line dropped to 2. The total, which opened at 54.5, has gradually been on the decline. Over/under bets are nearly split, but the under was getting around 80% of the dollars at the time of writing (see live betting data here). The Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on the road. The Steelers are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Bengals’ last 7 games vs the Steelers (avg. total: 40.29). Steelers vs Bengals 2019 NFL Week 12 Odds, Preview & Pick. Written by Eric Williams on November 19, 2019. NFL Betting News. NFL Week 12 Betting Trends for Steelers vs Bengals. Steelers are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games against Cincinnati; Steelers are 4-1 SU in the last 5 games;

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