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Ranking every PM Chapter/World before TOK releases: #06

Ranking every PM ChapteWorld before TOK releases: #06
Welcome back to the Top 10s everyone. If you're just now joining us, this project has been ranking one or two chapters a day to count down to The Origami King's release, but also just to reflect and take a walk down memory lane. The rankings positions are purely the opinions of me and u/ulk96. More information can be found on the first post, Rank #36, and every previous entry is linked at the bottom of the page.
6 posts, 5 days people. The Origami King is coming faster than we ever could've expected, despite the fact we knew the release date when it was announced, and that the passage of time is logically the most predictable thing possible. I dunno man, it just snuck up on me somehow! I remember starting this series and being like "Man, there's so many Chapters to get through" and now here we are and "Hi". -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Don't make waves and stay in line. Follow the Count's design.
Chapter 8: Castle Bleck, Super Paper Mario
This chapter marks the end of a game, both by literally being it's last chapter, and also the last one put on this list. It's a bitter sweet feeling, saying good bye to Super Paper Mario in regards to the series, but at the end of the day, it's one that I think has to happen now as opposed to later. While I over all enjoy Super Paper Mario more than the positions of the chapters in this series would suggest, it's undeniable that Super Paper Mario is the game that benefits least from having the chapters examined individually. It's a game that takes a lot of risks, and not all of them pay off, and the ultimate strength it has is something that can't really be reflected by any one Chapter alone.
I think it's fairly cliche to say that Super Paper Mario's biggest strength was the story, because everyone and their grandmother has heard that a million times. I bet you there are people who don't even know what Paper Mario is that will say "Yeah, Super Paper Mario, right? I heard it has a good story". That's how well known and obvious the fact that the story here is good. Chapter 8 lands this position solely because of it's sheer importance in concluding that narrative, and how masterfully and climactically it manages to do so. While Chapter 6 also developed the narrative brilliantly, it was ultimately more of a glorified pre-Chapter 7 intro than a Chapter and had to be rated as such. No such restrictions apply to Castle Bleck which both pulls off a capable dungeon, with respectable scores in all other aspects, while also stealing what made the final dungeons of previous games special.
The biggest knock against Castle Bleck which I'd like to address now is the castle itself. As you can see in the image, the aesthetic of Castle Bleck is ultimately gorgeous, and an intimidating and suitable final dungeon, however. This aesthetic does not change or build on itself as you progress through. Thanks to the level divisions within Super Paper Mario, each chapter feels significantly longer than it otherwise would, and you can only have so many artful rooms made of black backgrounds and white lines before they start to blend together. It's hard for me to even visualize from memory a single specific room from this area, apart from Bleck's minions' meeting room, which was given to me in the cutscene before hand, and the staircase I explored in Peach and Luigi's brief interludes.
I would've preferred the shot of them holding the roof up together but alas, I find what I can find at decent sizes.
Castle Bleck's main gimmick to it is the bossrush of Count Bleck's minions, all of which are deep and beloved characters in their own right, and the way your party dwindles as each member if left to confront their foil. While the levels between each confrontation are well designed, their ultimately much less memorable thanks to the issues I mentioned. At the very least, they do provide a fair and respectable bit of challenge for the final dungeon, although the same can't be said about the boss rematches unfortunately.
O Chunks and Mimi are the two minions who serve Count Bleck loyally, and they're more than willing to show it. I like both of these characters, O Chunks because he manages to be comedic in a cast of villains that really aren't, yet doesn't come across as out of place or distracting from the seriousness of things. He's ready to lay down his life for the Count and he makes sure to let you know it, and clearly has his own code of honor, when he's the one who initiates saving the heroes from the falling wall. Mimi on the other hand is practically an eldritch horror in her own right who's given a number of players nightmares, but when she ultimately begins to play nice alongside O Chunks, it doesn't feel forced because she's never been outright malicious, only childish and loyal. Both of them are affable characters who serve a complex and tragic villain, and when the time comes to face the real threats, they don't feel out of place.
Unfortunately, O Chunks does not get a new bossfight, instead being refought four times just "stronger". It doesn't help by making his opponent Bowser, which makes sense as they're the dumb tough guys, the game is practically begging you to cheese him with fire breath. Peach is similarly a rather obvious counter to Mimi, who's attacks can easily be blocked with the parasol. Beyond that, she uses her Chapter 2 bossfight instead of her Chapter 6 bossfight, likely for creepy factor, but ultimately making her easier than not. And the two of them strongly add to the feeling of watching your party dwindle slowly, and are responsible for supporting the Count just before the Pure Hearts return.
This is the only valid Super Dimentio strat. Bowser OP, plz nerf.
In 8-3, Luigi is left behind fighting Dimentio the same way Peach and Bowser are left behind against Mimi and O Chunks. Dimentio's been forshadowed as being far more dangerous than the other two, and ultimately, while Peach and Bowser have fairly logical reasons for showing back up, Luigi got blasted and just was found by the other two, which should immediately raise red flags. At the same time, the fact that he's had a Floro Sprout planted on him still comes as a very well designed twist, because you're not expecting an element from a filler chapter like Chapter 5 to make a comeback, and you've been led to believe that the four heroes would be united in the end game, like they come together before Count Bleck himself.
Sure enough, Dimentio is indeed the usurper as he forms one of the most creative and twisted final bosses in the series, albeit not very powerful due to the multitude of gameplay problems in this game. The fight against Super Dimentio at the very least features fantastic music, as well as giving Tippi and Bleck the chance to reconcile without feeling forced by the plot, and letting them truly assist the players in removing the invincibility on Super Dimentio.
The finale of Super Paper Mario is problem one of the best things committed to video game narratives period. First, we have established and visualized stakes thanks to Chapter 6. Second, every single major character plays a specific role. Third, we have pay off to every arc in the game: Tippi's memories of her romance with Blumiere, the lingering Floro Sprout mystery from Chapter 5, Luigi's hiatus as Mr. L from Chapter 4. No other final chapter ever manages to come across as this climactic or threatening. It helps that the nature of the conclusion is still left vague when you enter Castle Bleck, unlike most final dungeons where the ending is long since determined.
And there's one last thing to talk about still.

Blumiere and Timpani, somewhere better.
I want to warn you all that this will probably be more ramble-y, personal, emotional, and unprofessional than most of my content but I've been staring at this picture trying to put my love of Super Paper Mario into a structured essay and yet I can't.
I've never been a fan of the romance genre, because for the most part, it can give very unhealthy expectations for what dating is actually like. A lot of people end up feeling entitled to the affections of those they love because the nature of how romance works in life is a lot more complicated than just the fact that every match was simply meant to be. Whenever a story I'm experiencing begins to hint at a potential relationship being developed, I'm immediately more wary with the story as I worry about whether or not said relationship would be a good example, would be healthy, or functional.
Reading this, a lot of people might speculate as to if I've been "burned" in the past or had some kind of traumatic event related to dating. I've had a handful but honestly, most people have been or will be. Your first relationship isn't likely to end up perfect or special. Love is a skill that takes practice to hone. And I'm honestly shocked how well the Paper Mario series does this.
Koopie Koo and Koops explore how confidence can't necessarily be foster from support alone and that sometimes, people do need the space to overcome their personal traumas. Giving someone space or needing space is important and isn't something to feel guilty about. Bobbery and Scarlette are a surprisingly dark and complex take on how one needs to balance their own needs and desires with duty to your partner: devoting yourself at the cost of the things you love to your lover isn't going to make either of you happy. You will be miserable and the love of your life can never be happy knowing you're miserable.
Blumiere and Timpani at the end of the day is a relationship that fell apart. Count Bleck hits every single button on what you shouldn't do in a relationship. He's pathetically insecure without Timpani, mired by trauma. He's closed his heart, is jaded, and trying to put the entire world out of his misery, in a manner that isn't going to make him any happier. Everything he does is counter intuitive to his desires, he's an absolute mess, and is honestly begging to be killed and stopped on the inside.
And yet, it's scary because... it's so human. His cardinal sin is that his relationship wasn't healthy, that he was dependant on his lover due to a loveless childhood and everyone is going to go through a difficult relationship at some point in their lives. This isn't a monster, or a greedy one dimensional human being. This is a man who just needs therapy, and to accept the friends and family he never realized he was lucky enough to have.
There is so, so much that can be learned from Count Bleck. This is a character that can be given literary analysis after literary analysis, and that's not even starting on Tippi, a tragic victim forced to fight against the love of her life in order to protect the very fabric of reality. I'm in awe at how Super Paper Mario handles the depth of this issue, at how they acknowledge the unhealthy nature of Bleck's relationship but also the human behind it, so that when the two try again, you can believe that it might be better this time. Wherever the two of them are.
Okay, recap time. Super Paper Mario's Chapter 8 is largely responsible for the deep narrative that defines the entire game for many of us, but it cannot take the credit for that alone. The Chapter itself does have flaws, in that the areas blend together, the boss refights are poorly designed even if the narrative needs them, and it suffers a lot from the overall gameplay flaws with Super Paper Mario as a whole. That said, the sheer depth provided in the narrative, combined with the beautiful location, incredible music score, and many many more aspects I gushed on balance out these flaws. In the end, while the Chapter itself settles into the 6th position, the overall story of the game is higher. We are saying good bye to Super Paper Mario in this series for now, but let it be known that the game as a whole is greater than the sum of it's parts. I'll talk about my overall thoughts on each game more at the end of the series. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Previous Entries: Rank #36 Rank #35 Rank #34 Rank #33 Rank #32 Rank #31 Rank #30 Rank #29 Rank #28 Rank #27 Rank #26 Rank #25 ( Bonus ) Rank #24 Rank #23 Rank #22 Rank #21 ( Bonus ) Rank #20 Rank #19 Rank #18 Rank #17 Rank #16 Rank #15 Rank #14 Rank #13 Rank #12 Rank #11 Rank #10 Rank #09 Rank #08 Rank #07
submitted by ToadBrigade5 to papermario [link] [comments]

35 Whimsical and Fantastical Taverns and Inns For Your Table

35 Whimsical and Fun Taverns, Bars and Inns For Your Table

EDIT: An excellent official-looking edit has been created by the talented u/natesroomrule. You can find their copy here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_xtqOtSbnULTjo81l0aYhQj7NdmWWi2p/view
A few years ago, I drafted a d100-based table for a variety of interesting and fantasy-themed taverns for my group. While that session ended up falling apart, I completely forgot about the table I created until recently.
Behold! Below, find a variety of silly, interesting high fantasy tavern ideas you can use to populate your worlds to make everything feel a little more fantastic and flavourful.
Note that some taverns assume a particular location or setting, but feel free to re-roll or adjust as need be.
Dropbox Link (.docx format): https://www.dropbox.com/s/ena4hwp0o82qzws/Fantasy%20Inns%20and%20Taverns%20Table%20by%20Tr1lobyte.docx?dl=0

The Table

# Name Description
1-3 The Dancing Imp Once a bar of ill repute, where shady deals and even devil worship took place. The legend goes that once a cunning bard called a devil, tricking him by destroying his sigil and cursing the imp to dance until it perished from exhaustion. Nowadays, it goes that demons have never since been found into the bar due to this old superstition. While the truth of this tale is often in dispute, the bar runs a marathon dancing contest on the first Saturday of every month with the winner taking a "devil's share" of alcohol in winnings.
4-6 The Drunken Unicorn Legends tell that, a long time ago, a unicorn made itself an unwitting patron of this bar. Drinking from a leaky cask of wine set out at the establishment's back door, it had that night crashed through a wall, caused an atrocious ruckus, and ran off after scaring all the patrons. Families whose ancestors were in the bar at the time of the event consider it a badge of fortune, and continue to drink there loyally to this day.
7-9 The Giant’s Foot A dirty bar full of lowlifes and criminals, commonly used for dealings between races such as orcs, goblins and yes, giants. While it's a hive of scum and villainy, where crimes between patrons are met with an uninterested shrug, those who mess with anything within the bar such as stealing glasses are swiftly met with a guard who nails them by the feet upside-down to the wall to rot, until their ankles break off and only their crucified feet remain.
10-12 The Dragon’s Head The giant skeletal head of a dragon hangs over the bar, a trophy of its retired dwarf owner from his years as an accomplished adventurer. The head is enchanted to breathe mists of pipe smoke when given an offering of alcohol.
13-15 The Living Ivy The building, it high roof taller than it is wide a relic of the building's former status as a church, casts a beautiful spotlight across the empty floor. Long thick vines, once a Shambling Mound, crawl up the walls, growing back so fast they're almost impossible to remove. During spring, pilgrims come from far away to witness the vines release magical glowing spores, which it is believed (falsely) are able to cure all manner of ills and ailments.
16-18 The Hungry Beaver Located at the bottom of a valley in a flood-prone region, the bar is set up on long, thick stilts to keep it from getting wet during heavy rains. A set of stairs, often responsible for the broken bones and chipped teeth of drunks leaving in the early dark hours of the morning, lead up to its doors. The tavern has a special local brew, called "Beaver Honey", which is made using this water and the sap from a nearby species of tree to give it a sweet flavour.
19-21 the Backwards Inn A tavern inherited by no-nonsense elvish managers who doggedly insist that the inn is sensibly called "Traveller's Rest". Locals have a tradition of reversing the lettering on all the signs advertising its presence overnight, always insistently crediting it to an ancient curse bestowed on the inn by an angry wizard long ago, or to an ancient tribe of mischievous pixies who consider it one of their greatest cultural customs.
22-24 The Twin Golems At the entrance to the tavern two huge clay golems stand, lifeless, their longswords crossed above the door frame. When commanded, such as during a raid or crime, the bartender can tell them a secret command word which activates their defensive procedure, blocking anyone from entering or leaving the building with force if necessary. The golems have been repurposed here, having been once automated labourers in a mine, but have no personality and are comatose until commanded.
25-27 The Laughing Gnome A small tavern with ceilings and objects designed for those of halfling or gnomish size, but they take all visitors. Their prized gnomish ale is famous, and the manager and owner, a portly gnome named Ferrowin Gladis, never tires of large human men attempting to squeeze their way through its tiny doors for a drink. There's also a variety of budget rooms for the shorter adventurer underneath the building, which for their price offer an unparalleled quality.
28-30 The Filthy Priest Once located near a church, this dive is notorious for its association with illegal trades being right next to the city’s skid rows. However, any Detect Good and Evil inside the bar only detects good. Its previous location next to a church and the scandals that it had involved with its residents resulted in the name change and move to the new building in the slums about a decade ago, a small statuette of a god providing the blessing on the building that had been stolen from that very religious establishment.
31-33 The Portly Frog A large, open room with a circular fountain and one particular statue of a giant, fat frog at the centre. Rumours say that the frog was a magically cursed prince petrified by a Medusa, though it is impossible to determine its validity. A small quartet of bards can usually be found in the corner, singing beautiful songs and busking for money. Those who cause trouble in the bar quickly find that this band of high-level Bards are also the security of the establishment.
34-36 The Rotten Pumpkin Located in the city where the annual "World's Largest Pumpkin" takes place, the winning pumpkin every year is traditionally placed at the front of the building until it rots, after which children often rip chunks off and have food fights outside. While this festival only occurs once per year, the pumpkin-based beverages and meals are available all year round.
37-39 The Paladin’s Oath A classy establishment for paladins of all sorts, all Evil cowers when entering its premises. Those of any Good or Lawful faith are often given free rooms provided they are questing for the betterment of the world, and small shrines can be found to most major gods surrounding the building in small stone huts. The owner, a human man and woman who were once paladins themselves, are willing to offer any assistance they can in the battle against the forces of evil. No cheap alcohol can be found here, and drunkenness is greatly discouraged.
40-42 The Rabbit’s Foot Once the host of an underground gaming den, the tavern now repurposes the betting rooms for lodging. On the ground floor, several dice, board and card games are always to be found, and locals (who are veterans to gambling and are often charlatans) love to play their games with travellers. The local favourite, Gladiator Dice, is even played by local nobles who frequent the rooms and are usually surrounded by guests hoping to cash in on their reckless spending.
43-45 The Shaking Shack Also known as "The Drunk Tavern", every few minutes the building shakes very briefly as if in a small-magnitude earthquake. Most locals and the bartenders are used to it, barely noticing the shakes, but new travellers frequently find it frustrating and distracting. Legends go it was once cursed by a warlock who, after being insulted by a legion of drunks, cursed the building itself to 'hiccup' as if drunk itself. For this reason, once per night, it is customary to pour a beer out onto the floorboards to sate "the hair-of-the-dog in the building itself".
46-48 The Garden of Maidens Named after the legendary children's tale of the 12 Missing Maidens (which is said to have happened nearby), the tavern is less jovial than one usually comes to expect. Drinking any alcohol in the bar invokes a somber depression in the drinker, which the owner credits to the haunting spirits of the dead maidens spoiling the drink. While it famously triggers sadness in almost all who drink there, it has a strangely addicting quality. Even stranger still, the only people this curse does not seem to affect is young human women.
49-51 The Mourning Widow This seaside tavern is populated by sailors, who sing loud out-of-tune sea shanties into the early hours of the morning. Its exclusive brew, the Widow's Tears, are said to be made from the tears of ladies whose husbands have died at sea. For these reasons, anyone who dealing with the death of a loved one can expect free drinks on the house.
52-54 The Enchanted Mug Contrary to its title, the mugs at The Enchanted Mug are not enchanted. In fact, gnomish engineers have developed a complex hand-cranked machine where a patron can observe the automatic creation of "The Perfect Brew". It tastes foul, but most people pay just to watch the Rube Goldberg-like giant wall-mounted device create their drink behind a pane of reinforced glass. Nowadays, it frequently experiences malfunctions, and often expels ale even worse than normal.
55-57 The Whispering Web A bar infamous for hosting criminals and fugitives from authorities, often home to Drow and other evil creatures. Theories go that secrets travel faster than feet there, which may or may not be true: Mirrors hanging on the walls around the bar are used to anonymously conduct business with one another, with each dealer the only person able to see the other. For this reason the tavern in prized for its discretion and has been rumoured as the host to a number of highly influential underground business deals.
58-60 The Shivering Pelican A classier establishment, the bar serves infamously cold ales. Among them is their prized "Frozen Swill", cooled with magical jets to far below zero, which is nearly impossible to drink. Themed as a Winter Wonderland all throughout the year, a series of hot springs located out in the back are very popular among the richer folk who can afford to use them. The bartender rumours that nobles use the springs as meeting places for concubines and illicit lovers, which is supported by several other gossiping members of staff.
61-63 The Golden Harp This tavern contains a magical harp, brought in at no small expense, which plays beautiful music as patrons drink and dine. Believed to be imbued with the magical talents of an angel themselves, its melodies have an almost hypnotic quality to them, which has been known to invoke intense emotion among a minority of the weak-willed. Frequent attempts to steal the priceless artefact mean that the harp is placed behind several magical wards that prohibit anyone from approaching. Each flagon and mug has an ornate harp carved into its side, and these are commonly stolen as ‘souvenirs’ for patron’s homes as a testament to its owner's musical tastes.
64-66 The Broken Cavalry Popular among war veterans, it borders a huge stable and a large field where horse races are frequently run for sport and recreation. The first stop in a long pub crawl, tradition dictates that a budding drinker not leave the back of their horse throughout the entire ordeal, which becomes increasingly more difficult as the rider becomes more drunk.
67-69 The Starving Yeti Set inside a cave in the side of a tall mountain peak, it is often used as a safehouse during the occasional avalanche or orc raid due to its naturally fortified structure. Only the opening of the mouth is used for the business, but the rest of the uncharted cave behind it travels deep into the mountain: However, only the bravest dare to scout out the area due to its huge labyrinthian size and dangerous monsters. Rumours of ancient dwarven treasures from a time long-forgotten are familiar to all locals, including the recipe for a highly-prized ancient Dwarf wine.
70-72 The Dragon’s Roost Pigeons have long taken their place in the rafters of the tall building in which The Dragon's Roost is located, often pooping into the drinks of those below (which is considered a very lucky omen). Many sustained attempts to remove the infestation in the past has proved fruitless, and has slowly developed into a superstition that the pigeons are the reincarnated souls of regular bargoers.
73-75 The Prickly Crocodile Located on the middle of a dry and unforgiving desert, most drinks are synthesized from a common cactus to create a series of bitter yet strong alcoholic beverages known as The Prickles. As the plant is highly toxic, only the bar's owners, and old and influential Dragonborn family, are familiar with the secrets to extracting the appropriate liquid without retaining its deadly poisons.
76-78 The Gaudy Cannon Located on the roof of the squat, well-constructed stone tavern, a faux-golden cannon fires a blank shot of gunpowder every time somebody completes the venue's infamous Drowned Liver Challenge, which involves copious quantities of local wine. The proprietor and barkeep, an eyepatch-wearing halfling pirate by the name of Two-Bones (since retired), takes great joy in this ceremony (the cannon her proudest trophy from her travels) and often participates in the challenge herself.
79-81 The Wild Sorcerer Though not gifted with Sorcerous magic herself, bar owner Meredith Garalin inherited the venue from her mother after it spontaneously appeared from nowhere during one of her episodes of wild magic. Business is slow due to its out-of-the-way location, though local rumours that suggest the tavern is cursed to one day magically return to whatever plane it was summoned from (and with all its patrons inside).
82-84 The Ghost Hog Impossible to trace, the faint squealing of some faraway pig can sometimes be heard from inside of the tavern during the day. Notoriously grimy and filthy the east side of the tavern, dubbed 'The Swill', is an open, muddy space which is commonly the ground for drunken barehanded wrestling matches both for sporting and settling disputes. Solid lumps can frequently be found in their unappetizing pints of ale.
85-87 The Glowing Scales The only remaining building in a village now entirely in ruins, it acts as an important resting place for those travelling between two major cities which keeps business booming. Due to its highly vulnerable nature, the barkeep offers free room and board, as well as a night of free drinks, to anyone who assists in fighting away the goblin hordes that attack at sunset several times a week.
88-90 The Masquerade Floor A classy establishment built in a refurbished noble's manor after it was invaded and taken over by a neighbouring kingdom, its blindingly white tiled floors give it a strikingly futuristic aesthetic. The drinks are distinctly expensive, but come in an eclectic rainbow of colours. All its staff, mostly elves, wear white face masks that conceal their identities.
91-93 The Empty Pail A large, popular tavern in which large drink orders are made in 'pails', metal buckets filled with ale that can be shared between patrons or quaffed by larger, more ambitious humanoids. A lot of food, like small sections of dried apple or strips of preserved bacon, are served floating or submerged in the alcohol which gives them a bitter flavour.
94-96 The Clever Merchant A bustling hub of trade and mirth, the business offers not only rooms and drink but also a variety of trade stock such as grains, ore, and lumber. The owner, a bald Dragonborn merchant, makes a decent profit over the impulse purchases of drunks with coin to spare, as well as off a variety of house-run gambling games such as the popular card game Merchant.
97-99 The Thunderous Wagon Located on the outskirts of a city next to a large stable for late-night travellers, they offer cheap rooms for those willing to put up with loud distractions to their slumber during the night. Popular wisdom dictates that banging your mugs of ales against the table before drinking will bless those staying overnight with good rest.
100 The Bloodthirsty Fish A popular location among hobbyist fishermen, the walls are lined with the trophies of various huge catches. A patron can be offered a free drink if they can prove themselves a record holder of the largest for a particular type. Their brew is atypically salty-tasting and popular among sailors.
submitted by tr1lobyte to DnDBehindTheScreen [link] [comments]

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy
Alright CYKAS, Drill Sgt. Retarded TQQQ Burry is in the house. Listen up, I'm gonna train yo monkey asses to make some motherfucking money.

“Reeee can’t read, strike?” - random_wsb_autist
Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this:
gainz, bitch

Why am I telling you this?
Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches.

That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen.
So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you).
If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep.
This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first.

  1. Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
  2. Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
  3. Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
  4. This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.

This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
  • Are you new to trading?
  • Are you unable to manage your own positions?
  • Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
  • Do you think Delta is just an airline?
  • Do you buy high & sell low?
  • Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
  • Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
  • Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
  • Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
  • If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
  • Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
  • Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?
Well I have just the thing for you!

Table of Contents:
I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
IV. Busting your retarded myths
VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo
VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers

Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
"hurr durr OP retarded, OP sell puts" - random_wsb_autist
Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect?
Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
  1. 28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
  2. 3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
  3. 3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
  4. 3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”
And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play.
Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it.
I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is?
Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5:
How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?"
"By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes!
"According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."

On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences.
This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin."
I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."
Ahahaha, fuckstick bought TQQQ at $70, cuz that's what you do after a random 5-sigma move, right? How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Don't lie, I see you buying 3/5 on this TQQQ chart:
Meanwhile, on 3/3, I answered the question "Where do you see this ending up at in the next couple weeks? I have 3/20s" with "under 30 imo".

Well good fucking job, because a week later on 3/11, TQQQ closed at $61, and it kept going.
Nomura: Market staring into the abyss
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).
Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:

"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? "
"While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it."
"So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."
Good job, fuckfaces. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. I see you buying on this chart:
Well guess what, by 3/18, a week later, we did get another 5 standard deviation move. TQQQ bottomed on 3/18 at $32.73. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. 12 standard deviations. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is.
"Hurr durr you said it's going to 0, so you're retarded because it didn't go to 0" - random_wsb_autist
Yeah, fuckface, because the Fed bailed ‘em out. Remember the $150b “overnight repo” bazooka on 3/17? That’s what that was, a bailout. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel. Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books.



Yup, everyone got clapped on their stupidly leveraged derivatives books. It seems Citadel is “too big to fail”. On 3/18, the payout on 3/20 TQQQ puts alone if it went to 0 was $468m. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. I’d bet my ass Citadel was on the hook for a big chunk of those. And that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other blown derivative trades out there.

Y’all still did good, 3/20 closed at $35. That’s $161m/$468m payoff just there. I even called you the bottom on 3/17, when I saw that bailout:

"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago
Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts"
Scratch that, helicopter money is here."
"AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago
What does that mean?"
"It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."

"hurr durr, it went lower on 3/18 so 3/17 wasn't the bottom" - random_wsb_autist
Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it.
Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags.
Video of Billy & the Fed train

Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”
Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp.

Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS

RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play.
I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply:

Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2.
If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats.

You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later.

RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays.

RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to
RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains.
So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that.
Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this:

Example 1:
Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it.

Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads)
Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4
Wrong fuckface. You see the max pain at SPX 2975 & OPEX pin coming? Sell them some calls or puts (or spreads).

Sold 9x5/20 SPX [email protected], bam +$6,390. Still wanna pin? Well have some 80x5/22 TQQQ $80cs, bam anotha +$14,700.

+$21,090 - $10,824 = +$10,266 => Turned that shit into a +94.85% gain.

.cscqb4 rn

You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit.

Example 2:

5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play.

Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750.
Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How?
I have:
47x 2960 calls
-47x 2955 calls

Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have?

46x 2955/2960 bear calls
1x 2960 long call

So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there.
Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad.
And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position.

RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again.



Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you!
Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.

What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables.

Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005.

Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you.

Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR:
2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case)

So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009
After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070
End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392

Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk

2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069
2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194
2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897

Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC.

That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively.

Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage.

There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b).

Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway.

$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000.

What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000

And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ.

Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425

$100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b
$100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b
$100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b
$100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b

That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable.

In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK

My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular.
And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.

If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox.

If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets.
And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN".


On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200."
Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too?
Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:

  • ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
  • Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
  • Index rebalancing flows
  • Buyback flows
  • 401k passive flows
  • Carry trade flows
  • Tax day flows
  • Flows of people front-running the flows

And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to


Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit:

On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.

"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist

Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31.

So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you:
Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines.

Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here:

In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again.

Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means.
The reversal:
But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well.
Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you.
And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities.

You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG.
Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid.
Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke.
Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week).
And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage.
Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT!
And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do.
Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now.
Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M
And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.”

Don’t baghold!
Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit.
And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc.
And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now.
The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake.
And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing.
Got it? Good.
You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB.

Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO
Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO:

STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka.
STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT.
STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10.
STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5.
STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay.

Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?

  1. Proshares is dogshit. If you don't understand the point in my last post, do this: download https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-historical_nav.csv and https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-psdlyhld.csv. Easier to see than with TQQQ. AUM: 1,174,940,072. Add up the value of all the t-bills = 1,686,478,417.49 and "Net other assets / cash". It should equal the AUM, but you get 2,861,340,576. Why? Because that line should read: NET CASH = -$511,538,344.85
  2. Major index rebalancing June 22.
  3. Watch the violent forex moves.
  4. 6/25 will be red. Don't ask, play a spread, bag a 2x-er.
  5. 6/19 will be red.
  6. Not settled yet, but a good chance 5/28 is red.
  7. Front run the rebalance. Front-run the front-runners of the rebalance too. TQQQ puts.
  8. Major retard flow in financials yesterday. Downward pressure now. GS 180 next weeks looks good.
  9. Buy leaps puts on dogshit bond ETFs (check holdings for dogshit)
  10. Buy TLT 1/15/2021 $85ps for cheap, sell over $1 when the Fed stops the ass rape, rinse and repeat
  11. TQQQ flow looks good:

Good luck. Dr. Retard TQQQ Burry out.
submitted by dlkdev to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Will the Seattle Seahawks win OVER/UNDER 9.5 games? By University Stats Prof!

1. Introduction

Upon hiring Pete Carroll as their new head coach back in 2010, the Seahawks had consecutive 7-9 seasons. Since then, the franchise has enjoyed eight winning seasons in a row, compiling an impressive 86-41-1 record (a 67.6% winning percentage).

Last year, Seattle stayed toe to toe with the 49ers atop the NFC West division by winning 10 of the first 12 games. However, the Seahawks lost three of their final four contests, including the season finale against the Niners that was lost by a matter of inches on fourth and goal.

The Seahawks opened the playoffs by traveling to Philadelphia. They took advantage of an early injury to QB Carson Wentz to take the game by a 17-to-9 score.

Seattle’s next stop was at Lambeau Field to face Aaron Rodgers’ squad. The Hawks almost rallied from a 21-to-3 deficit at halftime, but were defeated 28-23.

2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)

Russell Wilson is just a phenomenal quarterback. There are so many good things that could be said about him.

Before diving into the numbers, here’s a stunning fact: he hasn’t missed a single game over his entire 8-year career. That’s incredible considering the number of hits he’s taken and given that he rushes about 90 times per season.

If not for Lamar Jackson’s heroics, Wilson might have won the MVP honor. He had his second-highest completion percentage (66.1%) and passing yards (4,110) of his career. His 31:5 TD:INT mark was exceptional.

All of the numbers above are great, but what makes them even more impressive is Wilson didn’t have a top-10 supporting cast. Keep in mind that he had just lost perhaps his top target, Doug Baldwin, who had decided to hang up his cleats at 31 years old. Wilson can clearly embrace the role of carrying a team on his shoulders.

The backup QB job is still up in the air. Geno Smith has yet to be re-signed, but it’s not impossible that he comes back.

2.2 Running Backs (RBs)

Chris Carson has now rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of the past two seasons, while reaching the end zone nine times in each of those years. His career yards-per-rush average of 4.5 is very respectable as well.

Carson suffered a pretty significant hip injury in the season finale. He avoided surgery during the offseason, but is questionable for training camp.

The second leading rusher in 2019, Rashaad Penny, also had a severe late-season injury. He went down with a brutal torn ACL and he seems unlikely to be ready in time for Week #1. The number 28 overall pick from the 2018 draft rushed for just 370 yards behind Carson last year, but he improved his yards-per-rush average from 4.9 in 2018 up to 5.7 last year.

Considering both Carson and Penny are nicked up, can Travis Homer take advantage? Last year’s sixth-round rookie didn’t do much in 2019. He had touched the ball just three times through the first 15 weeks of the season. He had to step in when the injury bug hit Seattle’s backfield. It’s hard to draw any conclusions from his 18-114-0 rushing stat line.

2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)

Tyler Lockett is a very reliable guy. His worst career season has been 41 receptions for 597 yards. Last season he set career-best in receptions (82) and receiving yards (1,057), while also hauling in 8 TD passes.

Much like his signal caller, Lockett is very durable. He has missed just one game in five years.

Rookie D.K. Metcalf stepped up in a nice way to grab the number two role. His 58-900-7 receiving line was a resounding success. He has a great mix of size and speed. He set a new league record with 160 receiving yards as a rookie in a playoff game.

The Patriots finally pulled the plug on the Phillip Dorsett experiment. He packed his bags for Seattle where he’ll be looking to fill a role as a deep threat. He couldn’t get going in New England despite a very thin receiving corps and having Tom Brady throwing the ball his way. It does not bode well for him.

David Moore had the third-most catches among Seattle WRs last year, but 17 receptions isn’t something to get overly excited about. He can be an occasional deep threat, but he makes bad mistakes at times. As a former seventh-rounder, there is not much upside with him.

2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)

Greg Olsen decided to hold off his project to call games on television for at least another year. He signed a $7 million one-year deal to join the Seahawks. He’s clearly not the once-dominant tight end he used to be, but the 35-year-old still caught 52 passes 597 yards despite catching passes from Kyle Allen and Will Grier.

Jacob Hollister led the position in receptions last year with 41, but that’s unlikely to happen again in 2020. He did his best, but keep in mind he was an undrafted guy who had caught just eight passes in two years. He benefited from Will Dissly’s injury and with the lucrative contract awarded to Olsen, it seems obvious that Hollister will get his playing time cut out.

Will Dissly got drafted in the 4th round in 2018. He missed most of his rookie season due to a torn right patellar tendon. This time, he tore his left Achilles’ during the sixth game of the 2019 regular season after a promising start. His athletic abilities could be more limited after sustaining a major injury to both legs.

As for Luke Willson, he will be primarily used as a blocking tight end.

2.5 Offensive Line (OL)

Right tackle Germain Ifedi left for Chicago during the offseason, but that’s fine from Seattle’s perspective. The 2016 first-round pick has been a bust and clearly struggled throughout his career. The team will replace him with Brandon Shell, formerly of the Jets. He is a small upgrade, but far from a big-time acquisition.

Left tackle Duane Brown continues to provide quality play on Russell Wilson’s blindside, but you have to wonder how much longer he can do the job. Brown will be entering his age-35 campaign. He finished as the 23rd-best tackle out of 81 qualifiers last year, which is a nice accomplishment for a player in his mid-thirties.

The team lost some depth following the departure of their #3 tackle, George Fant, to the Jets. He wasn’t great, but he still represented a good insurance policy.

Center Justin Britt had started either 15 or 16 games in each of his first five seasons in the NFL. His lucky streak ended on a running play in Week #8 where he tore his ACL and missed the remainder of the year. His play has been uneven, and he graded out as a below-average center. The team decided to release him during the offseason.

Backup center Joey Hunt did even worse than Britt when called upon to fill in as the starter. He’s not a long-term solution for sure, but he will compete for the starting gig with B.J. Finney, who was complete dust when he stepped on the field for the Steelers last year.

Guards Mike Iupati and D.J. Fluker received almost identical marks from PFF last year: 60.3 and 59.1 (46th and 48th out of 81 guards).

Iupati is a 10-year veteran whose play has deteriorated since 2017 when injuries started to plague him. As for Fluker, he’s also a player in decline. His first 3-4 years were good, but the last three not so much. Seattle released him and he found a new home two days later in Baltimore.

One potential candidate to replace Fluker is third-round rookie Damien Lewis. He is a great fit for Seattle’s run-oriented offense since he’s great in run blocking; he was seen throwing defenders on the ground many times. However, he’s not nearly as good in pass protection.

Perhaps Ethan Pocic can take advantage of his last shot to play in the NFL. After being picked in the second round of the 2017 draft, he has been bad in all three of his pro years.

2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE

Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Jacob Hollister are all back for the Seahawks this year.

Add the return of TE Will Dissly from an injury, along with the acquisitions of Greg Olsen and Phillip Dorsett and you have a recipe for another successful season on offense, right?

A major potential problem stems from the offensive line. Replacing Ifedi for Shell is fine. However, Duane Brown and Mike Iupati are getting older (35 and 32 years old, respectively) and the team lost some depth following Fant’s departure to New York. There are big question marks at center and right guard following the release of Britt and Fluker without having clear-cut solutions to replace them.

Russell Wilson has always been great at dealing with suspect offensive lines, but there’s a limit to what he can do. Also, the team’s success relies on the running game quite a bit, so you need guys that will open up holes.

Don’t forget about Carson and Penny both coming back from significant injuries. Also, Russell Wilson is coming off an amazing season in which PFF rated him as the best QB in the league. As much as I love Wilson, it will be difficult to replicate that kind of success.

Seattle’s offense posted the 9th-most points in 2019. For the reasons stated above, I envision a slight downgrade in 2020.

Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade

3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)

The interior of the defensive line featured a mix of Quinton Jefferson, Poona Ford, Jarran Reed and Al Woods.

Let’s kick off the analysis with the two guys that left via free agency. Jefferson got drafted in the 5th round and had a slow start to his career. However, he showed nice improvement in each of the past two seasons, even reaching the #27 spot out of 114 DLs based on PFF grades. Seeing him leave for Buffalo wasn’t good news.

Al Woods also jumped off the ship to sign with the Jaguars. He won’t be missed as much as Jefferson, although he had a respectable 2019 season. He was more of a run-stuffer who turned 33 years old.

Poona Ford showed promise in limited time as an undrafted rookie in 2018, especially defending the run. He was an “okay” player last year and might see the field more often in the upcoming season.

Jarran Reed seemed like an up-and-coming star after generating 10.5 sacks in 2018. However, the 2016 second-round pick had a season to forget both on and off the field last year. He was slapped with a six-game suspension for domestic violence before having an ordinary season that included just two sacks.

He just signed a very lucrative contract, so the team is banking on him to rebound to his 2018 form. The talent is there for sure. Let’s see if he can put it together this year.

3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)

The Seahawks were pretty bad last year rushing the passer. They had the second-fewest sacks in the league.

The team’s leader in sacks was Rasheem Green with only 4! The third-round pick from the 2018 draft wasn’t super effective, as shown by his 92nd rank out of 107 edge defenders in the NFL. There’s not much hope he will become a game-changer.

The only guy receiving good grades was Jadeveon Clowney. He’s known for his pass rushing abilities, but he’s an underrated run stuffer. He had his lowest sack output in five years, but he is bound to get rack up more in 2020. The bad news is he left via free agency.

Ezekiel Ansah was a major bust in his first year as a Seahawk. After averaging 8 sacks per year over his first six seasons, he recorded just 2.5 last year. He was also a liability defending the run. An awful year across the board. Now 31 years old, he has yet to sign with any team.

As for Branden Jackson, he is a replacement-level player. He has 3.5 sacks in four years.

The team is attempting to boost the position via a couple of free agent acquisitions: Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa.

Irvin is a nice addition. He is reuniting with the team that selected him in the first round of the 2012 draft. He has 52 career sacks in eight seasons, which amounts to 6.5 on average per year. Not bad!

It’s harder to figure out what to anticipate from Mayowa. He’s playing for a new team for the 5th time in 7 years. After posting just two sacks in his first three seasons, he now has 18 over the last four years. He is coming off a career year in Oakland with seven sacks and three forced fumbles. He is likely to be used as a rotational pass rusher.

Why not attempt to boost a position that underwhelmed last year by adding one more piece through the draft? That’s what the Seahawks did when taking Darrell Taylor in the second round. Based on expert evaluations, he has the toolbox necessary to succeed, but he needs quite a bit of development.

3.3 Linebackers (LBs)

Bobby Wagner led the NFL with 159 tackles last year. He’s never had less than 104 tackles in a season (and that was over 11 games). I think it’s fair to call him a tackling machine.

During his eight-year stint in the NFL, Wagner also has 19.5 sacks, 10 interceptions and five forced fumbles. He can do it all! He will be playing his age-30 campaign.

K.J. Wright had a subpar year. He received his lowest PFF grades of his nine-year career, but still finished in the middle of the pack (46th out of 89 LBs). He missed 11 games in 2018 with lingering knee issues, so you have to wonder if that still affects him.

Mychal Kendricks is gone after spending two uneven seasons in Seattle. He tore is ACL in the season finale and he pleaded guilty to securities fraud accusations.

The Seahawks picked a guy that is likely to play a rotational role in 2020: Jordyn Brooks. Some experts thought he was a reach at the 27th overall selection. He is good chasing running backs and scrambling QBs (he can literally fly and won’t miss many tackles), but he is far from a finished product in coverage.

3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)

After two run-of-the-mill seasons, Shaquill Griffin flipped the switch and performed admirably well last year. His coverage skills improved dramatically and he finished at the #10 spot out of 112 corners in the NFL based on PFF rankings. Can the 2017 third-round pick keep it up?

Tre Flowers received awful marks from PFF after getting burned repeatedly last year. He finished among the worst CBs in the league.

The team felt a need to upgrade the position, and they did so in a big way. Seattle signed Quinton Dunbar, formerly of the Redskins. He is coming off a career year where he picked off four passes and graded as the second-best corner in the NFL.

Still, let’s not get exhilarated too much. Dunbar is an undrafted guy that had four decent, yet unspectacular, seasons. He hasn’t proved he can be a top starter yet, but having him over Flowers is definitely an upgrade!

3.5 Safeties (S)

Quandre Diggs was acquired from the Lions last year to bolster Seattle’s secondary. He did a great job with three picks in just five games! He was a nice get and an upgrade over Tedric Thompson (who is now off the team).

The other starting safety is Bradley McDougald. He’s been fairly solid in each of his six seasons in the NFL. He is not a game changer, however.

2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE

Let’s evaluate how the 2020 Seattle defense should fare compared to the 2019 unit.

On the interior of the line, we detect a downgrade following the departure of Quinton Jefferson, and to a lesser degree Al Woods. Granted, there is hope that Jarran Reed might bounce back from his super disappointing 2019 season.

At edge, Clowney and Ansah are out, while Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa are in. What is the net outcome from those moves? I’ll go with a slight loss, in part because Clowney is likely to improve upon his 2019 sack total and he was great against the run.

At linebacker, Wagner and Wright aren’t young fellows anymore, but they’re not old either. Wright had a subpar year and he certainly has a shot to do better in 2020. However, losing Mychal Kendricks isn’t good news (albeit not a devastating blow either!). We’ll see if rookie Jordyn Brooks can fill his shoes.

Plugging Quinton Dunbar opposite Shaquill Griffin is an upgrade for sure since Tre Flowers struggled mightily last year.

At safety, we know what to expect from McDougald: respectable play. Now, having Diggs for a full season instead of Tedric Thompson is a vast improvement.

For all of those reasons, I am pegging Seattle’s defense to stay around the same level as 2019. They finished 22nd in points allowed last year and I expect them to secure a similar spot in 2020.

Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable

4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Seahawks are expected to win 9.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?

Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

Here are the results:

Estimated Probability Sportsbook Odds ROI
OVER 9.5 WINS 49.4% William Hill +130 +13.6%
UNDER 9.5 WINS 50.6% Pinnacle -118 -6.5%
Tip: Bet OVER 9.5 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +13.6%
Rank: 21st-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): +102

Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Seahawks’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -7.5 vs ARI, -2.5 vs DAL, -3.5 vs LAR, -3 vs MIN, -4.5 vs NE, -9 vs NYG, -8.5 vs NYJ, 0 vs SF.
ROAD: -2.5 @ ARI, -1.5 @ ATL, +2.5 @ BUF, +1.5 @ LAR, -4 @ MIA, +2 @ PHI, +6.5 @ SF, -6 @ WAS.

Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.

Tomorrow, we're previewing the Indianapolis Colts 2020 season! Will they win oveunder 8.5 games?


Professor MJ
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[Tamer of the Beasts] Part 28

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Karla’s adversary lunged in as Caleb approached, bringing his two blades in like scissors. Karla’s hands splayed out and caught the guard’s wrists, holding his arms apart. The muscles in her arms were tight with the effort, and her grip was shaking. Both her and her adversary had low noumena levels. Karla snarled up at the larger man. “Dox, now!” she shouted as lightning sprung around her forehead.
The Brumble came zooming in from behind, a similar crown of lightning encircling his head. As he dashed in, Karla stepped forward into the guard’s grip. He wasn’t braced for the sudden lack of resistance, and his blades closed in behind her, causing him to wrap Karla in an accidental bear hug.
Karla had, apparently, expected exactly that. She jerked her head forward at the same moment Dox closed the distance, and the two of them sandwiched the guard’s skull with a pair of shocking headbutts.
The guard’s eyes crossed, looking up at the Sabric eye in the center of his helmet, and he slumped to the ground. His Sabric separated from him and collapsed onto the grassy field.
“Took you long enough,” Karla said, shaking her head. “Had to deal with that one on my own.”
“Well, I was unclear on a few details. Like if we were still being quiet, for example. Which is what I thought we were doing, right up until you decided to go with the explosive opener, which isn’t really stealthy. It’s kind of the opposite of stealthy, in fact. I’m pretty sure everyone for miles heard the explosion. What the hell, Karla?”
“Realized at the last second we’d overlooked something,” Karla said, pulling out a vitagem and crushing it in her fist. Caleb could see the way her noumena aura shot back up to full brightness. “No need to double back and take out the Panopticon guards. Instead we can draw them out to us. Then they can run out to us as opposed to us having to lay siege to a tower of theirs where they hold all the cards and have all their own artifice, we are doing it out where neither side has an option.” Karla ran her hand through her hair, then pulled it back and tied it in a ponytail behind her head. “Need another haircut, stupid stuff keeps getting in my face.”
“That makes sense. I mean, it’s crazy as balls, but it makes sense. Except for one detail that I’m really hoping you thought of - aren’t there other guards? Ones that are asleep right now and might be summoned by a giant frigging explosion
“I’m happy to say I did think of that,” Karla said, cracking her neck to work out some kink. “The guards rotate out every week. They use specially made vitagems to eliminate their need for sleep for that week. It’s not good to use them much longer than that, but it lets them use less guards for more towns. They rotate on Solsday, so we’re not mid rotation.”
Caleb rubbed his nose. “Okay. How...how crazy is this fight going to be? When the Overseers forces arrive, I mean?”
Karla’s face darkened, and she looked around. “You did good work there, Dox. Return now. I’ll bring you back out later.” Dox began to glow, and in a flash of light he was gone. “To answer your question...Ruzo is going to grab a least one other person. Someone whose skills exceed his, so we won’t be able to just overwhelm them. Maybe more, but I doubt it - not yet. The more that know, the bigger the risk that the Overseer will find out he failed to catch me or beat you yet again..”
“There’s got to be like a hundred people in the town, right? At least? So we can take them easily, one hundred to two. Except you’re shaking your head right now, so I’m guessing I’m missing something.”
“Most of those people, even if we get the armbands off, don’t have Kritt. Those that do have Kritt have never really trained with them before, not for hard fighting. And even if we move fast, that fruit probably won’t wear off so they’ll be...docile, like you said. We can’t count on them. Jeral and Mikal… I don’t want to count on them being able to help us yet, either. It took me days to get over the Gold Fever, and I’m betting the fruit was part of that. We have to be able to take Ruzo and whoever he brings on our own.”
“And if we can’t?”
“Then this entire town is doomed.” Karla stretched her back. “Don’t feel too bad, Caleb. It was only a matter of time before I slipped up and led them here myself. At least this way there’s two of us fighting during the initial stage, so we have a single sliver of hope. I mean, still feel a bit like it's your fault because it is, but don’t beat yourself up over it.”
“Jeeze, you ever considered being a motivational speaker? I can see it now. ‘Here’s Karla with her best selling self-help book, Sometimes You’re The Asshole.’ Actually, I could see that doing well.”
“I’m going to pretend that made sense and move on,” Karla said.
“That’s probably for the best. At least the guards went down easy. If the others are that weak…” Caleb saw her movement and sighed. “There you go with the shaking your head thing again. What am I missing?”
“You only had an easy time of it because we sucker punched Cam a couple times before the fight was really going. I didn’t just call Dox back because I want to try a different Kritt, I called him back because he needs to recover, and Kritt heal faster when they’re not out. Saves me a vitagem. It wasn’t a super close call, but it was closer than I would have liked...and they always give the rookie guards gate duty. We’re going to have two more seasoned ones showing up soon, and they probably won’t just have Sabrics. Which is why…” Karla held out her hand. “Zoomie, come forth!”
Caleb was blinded by the light as Karla summoned her Kritt. He had to blink to clear his vision.
Standing there was a Kritt that looked like a fennec fox with dark grey fur that bordered on black and golden tiger stripes. It had a thick mane of fur around its throat, and its tail fanned out to look more like it belonged on a bird. It barked excitedly at Karla and shook itself.
“Hey Zoomie. This is Caleb. I told you about him already. That’s Antoinette on his shoulders. Caleb, Antoinette, meet Zoomie.”
Zoomie leapt around for a moment, each jump taking it far higher in the air than Caleb had expected, then began to chase his tail. He paused to bark at Antoinette and then Caleb in turn. The sound wasn’t quite the high-pitched yip of a tiny dog, but definitely not the deep bark of a larger breed. Something in between the two.
“What is he?” Caleb asked. Zoomie looked over at him with a wide grin, his tongue hanging half out of his mouth.
“He’s a Vulany.” Karla bent down and scratched his head. As soon as his type was said, Caleb’s goggles added it to his sheet - Type: Mammin, Subtype: Vulany. It was taking some getting used to, but Caleb was starting to feel comfortable looking at the read-out while not being too distracted from what was going on around him.
Starting. It was a process.
“Nice to meet you, Zoomie.” Antoinette trilled to agree with Caleb.
Zoomie barked in excitement at hearing his name from these strange people and then took off at a dead sprint, running a circle around the entire group. “I...think I see how he got the name,” Caleb said.
Karla’s cheeks reddened. “He’s been hyperactive since before I Tamed him. Only was able to because the fuzzy moron zoomed himself straight into the tunnel and couldn’t climb out. He’s lucky I was leaving that day. Don’t know how he got in there in the first place, though.” Zoomie leapt and came to a screeching halt, looking up adoringly at Karla. She laughed and scratched his head. “Can you pretend to be calm for a few minutes, buddy?” she asked him. Zoomie took a step, and stumbled. He clearly wanted to start sprinting to show how excited he was to be calm, but understood the contradiction in that. It led to an awkward collapse as his hindlegs didn’t quite catch up to his forelimbs that he wasn’t walking at the moment.
“Did he just manage to crash into himself?”
“Yes,” Karla said, pinching the bridge of her nose. “Yes he did. I swear he’s damn good in a fight. Just….well, when it comes to anything that isn’t a fight, he’s very…”
“He’s a derp, got it,” Caleb said. Zoomie looked up at the word, tongue hanging half out of his mouth.
“I don’t know what that word means, but it sounds perfect. Yes. He’s a derp, if derp means once spent an hour licking a window because he wanted to play in the snow but was too excited to tear himself away long enough to go to the door.”
“That,” Caleb said, stretching his neck, “is the textbook definition of a derp.”
Karla smiled and motioned. “Now come on, let's get back into the fruit. Maybe we’ll get lucky and catch another guard by surprise when they show up.”
“I’d like that,” Caleb said. “I’m very good at sucker punching people. Quietly. I’m quiet when I sucker punch people.”
Karla rolled her eyes. “Come on, then. Let’s get out of sight.”
“To quietly sucker punch people?” Caleb said, taking a step back towards the field.
The world went white. A beam of something lanced through the space Caleb’s head had just vacated. Reflexes he didn’t know he had drove Caleb to leap forward. He would have slammed into Karla if she hadn’t dropped into a crouch at the same moment. Caleb’s eyes took a moment to readjust from the light’s absence.
When they cleared, he could see two figures standing near the gate. The woman had long hair the color of an open flame, and the man was completely bald. With them were two Kritts - a dog sized lizard that moved like a cat and had fins in place of ears, and a floating brain with big googly eyes, stubby tentacles, and a mouth shaped like a perfect “O” of surprise. Caleb’s goggles informed him the first was a Draco, the second was a Ceph, but subtypes for both were unknown.
It didn’t matter. Hiding wasn’t an option anymore.
The woman with the Ceph raised her hand and pointed again, directly at Caleb “Cera, Psy Break.”
Caleb leapt as another beam of light streaked towards him.
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Every Major Issue With GTA 5 Online

Okay let's just get this straight, GTA 5 and Rockstar sucks doodoo. They are milking the living hell out of this game, there are way too many issues that could easily be handled, and the community is the worse than every other game combined. With that being said, I have constructed a small list of every major issue (that I could come up with) in GTA 5 Online.

  1. Sharkcards
The sharkcards are shit to put it mildly, they are expensive, they are pointless and anybody who buys them should be forced to drink dog piss.

  1. Oppressor Mk II
Ah yes, the vehicle of the giefers. The Oppressor Mk II is so OP where it ranks #1 in all tier lists. I'll bet you $200 that you can ask any developer, staff member or anybody who has ever worked at Rockstar during the development of GTA 5 and they will say that they have not ever created a more powerful monstrosity than this. It’s a flying bike with missiles, it can’t get any better.
  1. Connection issues
I pay for the best internet distributor in my country, yet every 45 minutes my game freezes and I get kicked to story mode. How in the flying fuck does a game that costs 265 million to make, and earned over 6 BILLION dollars since its release not have the ability to get their fucking servers to properly work or get some that actually work.
  1. Modders
There are 4 types of modders.
  1. The one who uses mods for personal gain.
  2. The one who uses mods to ruin other peoples experiences.
  3. The one who uses mods to help other players.
  4. The one who doesn’t even fucking use them.
Which one do you think is the most common one? Of course it’s the 2nd one. Which takes me to the next point.

5. Anti-Cheat System
I would like for you to tell me how many times you have heard of seen a modder get banned? If you’re like most people, you would say 0, if you have seen 1 or more, count yourself lucky because the anti-cheat system is as productive as my 2 inch penis in the bed. It doesn’t work properly and I’m not the only person to say that.

6. Chat Censorship
The game is rated M for mature, it’s intended for adult audiences, there is absolutely no reason for censorship to exist in this game. If you are able to put a strip club, murder, gore, torture, robberies, extreme violence and “ghosts” in a game, you should be able to put in 2 swear words into your fucking message when typing a goddamn sentence in a public or private session.

7. Vehicle Prices
This point is kind of connected to point 1 regarding sharkcards. There are a variety of vehicles for purchase in GTA Online, boats, cars, motorcycles, planes, helicopters, anything you can get your hands on. There are up to 464 vehicles in GTA 5 online, and around 15% of them costs over 2 million dollars, that is 32 dollars, 31% of the vehicles costs over 1 million dollars, which is $20 in sharkcards and 48% of all vehicles costs over 500k, which is about $10. This means that almost half of all vehicles in GTA online costs you a total of 10 DOLLARS TO BUY. The afterhours DLC costs about 6.2 times as much as the original game does.
8. Arena Wars
That one bitch, Bryony or whatever, keeps calling basically everybody who hasn’t bought a workshop for the stupid ass Arena Wars. The award is pathetic, being a level 20-50 and playing Arena Wars is like a kid being bullied at their first day of school, but the kid being 6 and the bullies being 24. It’s rocket league in GTA 5, it’s just another cash grab. It’s just like freeroam but with a smaller map and with worse rewards. It’s just amazing how the DLC could fail so quickly.

9. Guns
Widowmaker is the main issue with this. It's cheap for its power, it's a laser gun with a rate of fire faster than me losing my will to live after playing this god forsaken game.
10. Community Behavior
You cannot go 20 minutes without getting shot by another griefer, modder or general assholes who you haven’t done any harm to. The community is filled with people insulting each other, griefing, being assholes and not knowing how to show respect to each other. It has come to the point where the Discord is 80% made only for community assistance. Just got killed by a guy 37 fucking times because I quit his heist when he started trolling. It was like 20-37 because I didn't want to fucking fight him, and for some goddamn reason he got 2 of his fucking friends to help me. Ain't nobody want 2 oppressors and a Hydra on their asses.

11. Heists
It has gone 7 years as of the creation of this document, yet we only have like 8 heists in GTA online, the Casino Heist, the Doomsday Heist, Series A Funding, Humane Labs, Prison Break, Fleeca, Pacific Standard and whatever. 80% of the time you get teamed with people who cannot communicate, are toxic and disrespectful or leave early or late-heist.

12. Load Times
The load times in GTA Online is worse than Loading Screen Simulator. For the people with extremely good internet like me, it takes about 7-9 minutes to load. A friend of mine who had a mid-tier connection had to wait for 24 minutes to get into the actual game. If you tab out it will “load” perpetually, meaning that it shows it as loading but it doesn’t do jackshit.
Loading online from Story Mode is cloud simulator. -Combat Wombat
what the fuck

13. Phone Calls
I have bought a high-end apartment, nightclub, facility, vehicle warehouse, office, money factory, MC club, basically a majority of the things purchasable, yet I constantly get phone calls to buy more. This is not only about purchasing properties either, it’s Lester, Bryony, Tony, everybody who spam calls you to do shit. When you’re in a call you can’t jump, aim, equip guns, shoot. Fucking Maude and the treasure hunts as well, the rewards are insulting. I do not want to randomly kill people, I do not want to spend 15 minutes trying to find a treasure that 25% of the time doesn’t even exist.

Tell me if there are any other issues, which wouldn't surprise anybody because this game has gone to absolute shit, and I will edit the post.
submitted by Nathantis to gtaonline [link] [comments]

We are the paper-clip maximizer: observations on idealism

Wherein I attempt to convince you that the better angels of our nature are iterations of Patrick Bateman.
I grew up in Eastern Europe. My family was pretty well off: after the Iron Curtain fell in 1989, my father got a Fulbright scholarship at Stanford. He returned with dollars and, more importantly, American connections.
My people, perpetually more interested in acerbic word play than doing anything constructive, are fond of the following bon mot: are idei putine, dar fixe. It translates to something like, "he's a man of ideas that are few, but fixated."
This template of inverted expectation (instead of insult-but-compliment, insult-but-insult) captures the soul of Balkan cynicism beautifully, and the phrase describes my father to a tee. He had the bedrock conviction of a religious man, expanded by the confidence of two doctorates. A sampling of his beliefs, routinely proselytized among his single-digit aged kids:
The Internet will define the future. Jews are the smartest people, ever. Anything comfortable aligning itself with the label socialism kills the soul. Reagan is a mix of Superman and the Pope. Assorted musings on said themes.
If ever there's a market for an Eastern-Euro flavored All In the Family, I've got things to pitch to the writers.
As befitting a pre-schooler, I was pretty whatever about les idees fixes de mon pere at the time and instead played Spectre and messed around with ClarisWorks on the PowerBook 100 he brought back from the land of plenty.
Exposure plus inertia equals three quarters of belief, so about a decade & a half later, after benefiting from a lottery both literal as well as figurative, I found myself circa early aughts, enthusiastically--albeit unconsciously--ticking off my father's boxes:
  • The Internet will define the future: holler atcho boy with the second set of Warglaives on the server, what's up
  • Jews are the smartest: Einstein & Rothbard, hell yeah
  • Anything comfortable aligning itself with the label socialism kills the soul: the Shahaadah of Eastern Euros, double hell yeah
  • Reagan is a mix of Superman and the Pope: A contrarian attending the People's Republic of U.C. Berkeley, what do you think?
And so I internalized the litanies littered across the only lot I could reasonably inhabit on the political compass: that remote, much-memed-on mountain top called libertarianism.
Thankfully enough, I avoided the ditch of Ayn Rand worship. I'm stupid but not stupid enough to fall for anybody who's that bad of a writer[1]. I painted well within the Hayek lines of respectability instead, eschewing gold-buggism, doom-prepping or the crass embarrassment of formal Libertarian politicking while nursing a chip of feral anti-collectivism on my shoulder.
It worked. Ish.
Then, at first slowly--then, rapidly--it didn't.
Axiomatic assumptions about America's place in and influence around the world (remember: I grew up with people who thought Radio Free Europe was basically the burning bush) were the first to go. I went into the Iraqi war with full "save them from Saddam!" gusto, and one of my snarky descriptions of Berkeley campus anti-war fervor got linked to by Andrew Sullivan, then one of the patron saints of the pro-incursion nomenklatura. The ensuing decade-long debacle disabused me of several elaborate fictions.
2008 torpedoed several comfort blankets[2] about markets always being right and deregulation always being good. Most of the damage got patched up with elaborate circumlocutions: manipulated markets aren't real markets, ratings agencies are an elaborate shell game, nominal outcomes are impossible when Clintonite-birthed obscenities distort risk.
But Agent K's admonition, Carlin's line for the ages and a slow drip of behavioral economics all began registering. Maximizing everybody's freedom started sounding less and less like a good idea, much less ethical imperative.
I was lucky enough to meander through Denmark, Belgium, Sweden. No democratic-socialist commissars demanded my papers.
I got mind-fucked several times by Crichton[3]. The Lizardman Constant upset me. Moldbug's Nosferatu-like meditations rattled my cage. Even more dangerously, instead of stopping at 1984 and Animal Farm, I expanded my exposure to Orwell: Road to Wigam Pier, Homage to Catalonia. Goddamn socialist, that one.
Through the last few years, my time online revealed an Internet unlike playful territory of experimentation that I experienced as a teenager. Monetization and mass psychosis rue the day.
TFW I realize that various idealistic impulses (America land of the free! Liberty for all! Communism bad!) lined me up behind objectively, measurably, conclusively Wrong Things.
At times, Bad Things.
Contrary to what you might imagine right about now o'clock, I don't consider myself an interesting topic. The expansive autobiographical detour had to preface what's next, or else it would've read (too) accusatory and obnoxious.
I had to show work: me first.
I fucked up.
If a socialist professor from Toronto U & full-on Objectivist both deploy the same unlikely phrase, one might wonder what, exactly, predatory altruism means.
I yield the floor to Thiel Capital's managing director:
When powerful people use their advantage to engage in new involuntary transfers of wealth, safety or freedom from those too weak to defend themselves, the winners are almost always forced to create a type of idealism as a cover for their syphoning.
In simpler terms: these idealisms are cover stories or bespoke fig leaves which almost exactly fit the extraction or taking that they're tailored to mask. Once this is understood, we realize that to test this theory, each wave of idealism would have to be matched to a highly specific effective confession for an injustice that pervaded the era in which it was found. (...)
(The idealism of U.S. competitiveness in the 80s and early to mid 90s) wasn't really about the need of managers, owners and workers to pull together through shared austerity to re-invigorate American industry. It was a false idealism that instructed American labor to give up hard-won gains that were not matched by comparable sacrifices from the other groups.
Once U.S. labor had been sufficiently humbled and attenuated (...) the drumbeat of patriotic competitiveness gave way to the post-national Davos idealism of a world without borders signing the praises of financial inclusion, trade, immigration and philantropy. The purpose of the post-national movement wasn't to include those overseas but instead to allow the wealthy of the industrialized world to break bonds with their fellow citizens of the working class and access cheaper labor abroad using far-flung supply chains.
In Extremely Online parlance, this is called, I believe, a black pill.
You might be compelled to observe that for a self-professed snake-bitten Eastern Euro harboring Iron Curtain obsessions, I'm parroting awfully Marxist-sound lines. Ok, let me dig myself into a deeper hole:
Second and third wave feminism were championed in popular culture because they radically expanded labor markets, leading to decades of wage stagnation and massively increased the purchasing power of those who control most economic consumption.
Intersectional orthodoxies have reached the power and reach they have now largely because they've been systematically championed as a cheap alternative to labor-based politics.
Environmentalism has been deployed as sword and shield for entrenched rent seeking, literal and figurative, excusing rapacious NIMBYism and boxing entire generations into a corner where starting a family or building generational wealth have a risk profile similar to betting everything on red.
And so on.
You get the gist of it[4].
This is neither a chronicle of nor a plea for Going Full Kropotnik: the last thing I'm after is convincing somebody to change their leopard spots.
I'm pointing out that we have a nearly universal diagnostic: "social unrest about legitimate issues has been co-opted, hollowed and weaponized out by opportunistic bad actors." It applies to Build the Wall, #believewomen, the role of national and local government when responding to health crises, BLM, e-v-e-r-y-t-h-i-n-g.
An optimizing, pro-social function of being human seems to have gone haywire.
THESIS: The scale of contemporary societies and tech accelerationism have created a situation where the sheer rate of New, compounded by how powerful the New is, have permanently tilted the scales in the favor of societal defectors.
Those who have the means and inclination to co-opt, hollow-out and weaponize cooperation.
You're welcome to expurgate your dissatisfaction with the above by calling it Kaczsynski With More Steps. One must take refuge & shelter in the small pleasures of life, such as summary dismissal of apocalyptic online ramblings.
ANTI-THESIS: We're living through the Reformation Wars, and it's up to each and every one of us to carve out, in whatever small way we can, a path to the Peace of Westphalia.
We're fucked, now and forever, at an increasing rate, OR:
We're fucked and the only way out is to dig through corpses and broken shards of idealism while nursing paranoid suspicions, especially about those who shout loudest about their willingness to help digging.
I don't know what the latter looks like. Something along the lines of "have exit plans ready" for communities that matter (theMotte) and Actually Matter (your family.) Something like, delete your Twitter accounts. Invest in functional, proven crypto. Get a haircut and a meal to a homeless person who needs them.
[1] You're welcome to disagree and be wrong about this.
[2] Mixed metaphors, best metaphors.
[3] With something between terror and smug self-satisfaction, I note that finding these essays via one of my Official Outgroups, large search engines, takes a substantial amount of effort.
[4] I realize that these are Large Claims with zero evidence to support them. Perhaps each paragraph merits 5,000 word treatments, but there are limits to my throughput and, more to the point, reader attention span.
submitted by sl1200mk5 to TheMotte [link] [comments]

Every Matchup, Every Winner, All Of It.

First off, here's the foundation for these predictions:


(G = Gods win a round. H = Humanity wins a round. T = Both combatants die, ending in a tie.)

This is how I believe every round of this tournament will play out, and I'm pretty damn well sure it's how it will.
I believe that the Win/Loss order should be as gripping yet erratic as possible, but also balanced. What I mean by that is that it should be gripping in the sense that each side gets a bit of momentum so it's not just back and forth every round, but it also needs to be a bit erratic and break that momentum so it retains interest and doesn't become too predictable either. At the end of the day though, it also needs to be balanced throughout the whole of the tournament so we do get to see every fight. After all, if the Gods win every match from this point on, then the tournament would end quite early. So to recap: We need to establish an order that allows for suspense by striking a balance of ever-changing wins that doesn't sway too much in either team's direction so that every fighter gets the opportunity to participate.
Now that we've gone over that, we're going to look at each remaining fight in-depth:

5. Shiva vs. Raiden
- Since we're already knee-deep in this one, I'm just going to skip themes and volund and all that and just jump into how I think it'll go and why. First of all, at this point in time, Raiden is taking this fight extremely seriously. That's honestly a smart move as a combatant obviously, but really damn bad from a storytelling perspective. It means that though we've yet to see Raiden go all out and show every illegal move he's got tucked away, we haven't even seen Shiva reach that first step of taking this fight seriously.
So, following that train of thought, here's a simplified version of how I see this playing out: Raiden is going to beat the everliving shit out of Shiva using basic moves and a few illegal ones, Shiva's family is going to react to this, Shiva's going to snap out of his joking mood and start to take this shit seriously too once he realizes that this isn't just for fun - this is for his life. Now that they've both stopped fucking around, Raiden (who's already having issues with endurance if you noticed him having difficulty breathing) will pull out all his stops. Every ultimate move, every worst cheap banned and brutal martial art that he knows of, everything just to end this as quickly as possible. Then, once he's got Shiva on the ropes, that'll be it. That's when Raiden will die.
Two things will kill him essentially: Shiva's family, which may as well be plot armor (he has more to lose in this fight, giving him an edge in a plot mindset and greater motivation) and Raiden's low endurance, which is the price of his power.
TLDR: Raiden will lose once Shiva takes it seriously, which will only be after he's nearly killed in front of his family, and the final blow will be when Raiden's stamina runs out.

6. Susano'o vs. Okita
Volund: Hjörþrimul is likely to be his volund, considering she's referred to as "The Sword Warrioress" and Kojiro didn't use her. Alternatively though, he could also be paired with Kára since her name means "the wild, stormy one" hinting at his own personality as well as his opponent's overall aesthetic and how similar they are to one another.
- Now this one's pretty straightforward but it'll be badass nonetheless. Thematically this matchup seemed pretty obvious to me primarily because A. We only have one Japanese human swordsman left, and B. We only have one Japanese god swordsman left. It's certainly not the only reason and it's not as if there aren't other gods that use swords, but it's really the most prominent reason. It's incredibly likely that Okita is the last swordsman left on humanity's side and you're telling me that this manga series isn't going to take its last shot at a swordfight between gods and humanity? Sorry, but no.
Personality-wise, I'd imagine the author will make this a reflection rather than opposites like Kojiro and Poseidon. Many of us know what Okita will be like, he's essentially a young, rash, seemingly unstable prodigy with the blade. Then we have Susano'o... the God of Storms and the Sea, likely unstable in some ways as well considering many myths portray him as a wild, impetuous god. He's the younger brother of Amaterasu as well, so perhaps they'll age him down to mirror Okita even more. My reasoning for this being the next fight is obviously that Okita's been waiting in anticipation and he won't get cockblocked for both Raiden's fight AND the hypothetical different sixth fight, because that would be ridiculous and result in well over a year of waiting to see someone that really didn't need to be shown already impatiently waiting.
So yes, that being said, the winner will be Okita because he didn't exactly get to flourish during his life as he died at a young age (presumably before he ever hit his prime) due to TB. I imagine he's due for a W for all of the lost potential during his life, same as Kojiro, and it'd make for a nice little redemption after Raiden dies, since humanity will desperately need a pick-me-up for the next few fights.

7. Buddha vs. Kintoki
Volund: Skeggöld is the axe Valkyrie. It just works™.
- Now, this one's a bit of a journey so follow closely: A lot of people envision Kintaro when they think of this character since his Wikipedia page is covered in art and folk stories of the legendary pampers-wearing badass that beat the shit out of demons when he was learning his ABC's and even sumo-wrestled a bear. Yeah, I can see why you'd want to see that kid fighting hipster-Buddha, but no. Perhaps they'll take elements from the folk version, that could be cool honestly, but we're not focusing on the legendary kid. We're focusing on the actual person, Kinoki, and for good reason. Let me explain why real quick and then I'll move onto the actual fight.
There's not a lot of information on Kintoki, the actual man, but what we do know about him is that he was a great warrior and that he served as a retainer for the samurai Minamoto no Yorimitsu. What's far more fascinating about the actual man that connects him to Buddha though, is that Kintoki studied martial arts and became renowned for his strength and martial prowess, eventually earning the title of chief of Yorimitsu's Shitennō. The Shitennō were an elite group consisting of four retainers that chose the moniker as a reference to the legendary Four Heavenly Kings from Buddhism. In essence, Kintoki was so badass at martial arts that he was eventually viewed in the same light as a Buddhist legend and now he's fighting Buddha himself. How perfect is that?
That being said, I'm sorry Kintoki, but you're totally going to die. First of all, you're really just screwed by the plot since Buddha was shown recently and we're definitely not going to get cockblocked that long for his fight either as I explained with Okita earlier. They're showing us these characters, so they have to fight relatively soon, and if I'm right about the Win/Loss order, then this is going to be an L for Humanity and sadly that means that Kintoki will have to die. I can easily see the author deciding that this will be a loss before really fleshing out the character and then leaning more toward the folk hero route to make us root for him. I also believe that as a writer that would really twist the knife in the audience's gut, since as a reader I'd totally want to root for a Japanese folk legend over hipster Buddha any day. I'd imagine that anyone going against Buddha would have a hard time, but I also think that being a legend in Buddhism is still pretty unfair when you're going against Buddha himself, so GG Kintoki.

8. Anubis vs. Qin
Volund: Hildr has the power to revive the dead in battlefields and use it to maintain the everlasting battle between Hedin and Högni. Terracotta bois, wya?
- Let's be honest, this one didn't surprise anyone. God of Death (As well as mummification, the afterlife, cemeteries, tombs, and the Underworld, etc) vs. Emperor that was obsessed with immortality and only feared death. In the twilight of his life, Qin Shi Huang had been absolutely obsessed with defying death as it was the only thing he hadn't conquered after being the first to unify China and invent the moniker of Emperor. Quite the badass, but pretty dumb as well considering he died after ingesting mercury in an attempt to create an immortality elixir. This isn't a history lesson though, I just wanted to show you how obsessed this man was with the exact thing that this god embodies.
Truth be told, I don't know a whole lot about Anubis but considering he's the god of tombs and Qin Shi quite literally constructed a mausoleum the size of a city and filled it with Terracotta soldiers, I don't consider it much of a reach that they'll come into play considering their sole purpose is to protect their Emperor in the afterlife.
Now that we've established that they're perfect for one another, let me tell you all of the ways that Anubis will wipe the floor with Qin Shi. Historically, Qin Shi got everything he wanted in life and we all know what happens to those that win while they're alive. They don't win in death, not often. That's why Lu Bu got destroyed by Thor and why I imagine at this point in time that Raiden will lose to Shiva. Winners in life become losers in Ragnarok and vice versa as proven by Kojiro. Sure, Qin Shi did lose to death in the end, but there's a reason why.
If it were anyone else, I'd give it to them, but Qin Shi is a bit too obsessed with conquering this one, leaving the storyteller in me to believe that it's a goal far too aligned with his personal motivation and the reader in me far too hopeful to see this one futile man trying to defy the scariest force of nature. I root for the mere concept of this man far too much, so he's undoubtedly going to fail in his ambitious endeavor, leaving us all feeling quite a bit less hopeful at the end of it all.

9. Bishamonten vs. Nostradamus
Volund: Skuld is the most fitting Valkyrie for Nostradamus considering her name essentially means "Debt" and is related to the English word "Should". Along with Urðr (Old Norse "Fate") and Verðandi (possibly "Happening" or "Present"), Skuld makes up a trio of Norns that are described as deciding the fates of people. Nostradamus' whole shtick was prophecy, therefore his best bet this fight is the power of prediction, and who better to help him than essentially one of the three Fates of Norse mythology? Alternatively, Svipul could be his volund as her name presumably refers to the changeable nature of fate.
- Considering Nostradamus' main deal was fate-related and that he'll surely be weaponizing his predictions, it seems fitting that his opponent will be one of the Seven Lucky Gods that'll definitely be utilizing his prowess in battle against Nostradamus as well. As an armor-clad god of war in Japan, Bishamonten will likely be a physically intimidating warrior, wielding a great spear that'll give him reach that Nostradamus won't have. Considering I couldn't find any formal training of martial arts or weapon expertise in his history and he wasn't exactly benching books in his free time, he'll likely have to primarily dodge for the vast majority of the fight and exploit the smallest of openings similar to what Jack did if he wants to deal any damage.
I'm not entirely sure what he'll use as a weapon during his fight, but I do think that his past as a physician will come into play somehow. Perhaps he'll be surgical in his methods, carefully setting the stage and leading Bishamonten into traps similar to what Jack did. Honestly, the more I think about this fight, the more I see it as a plaything for Nostradamus since I can't imagine him even stepping into the ring if he's destined to die. Aside from fitting into my W/L order, Nostradamus seems fated to win this because thematically it just makes sense that no amount of luck can outperform fate.

10. Beelzebub vs. Rasputin
Volund: Although Hildr was my first instinct for Rasputin since the guy was comically hard to fucking kill, Göndul seems like the most fitting for him since Qin Shi has already taken Hildr since she's most fitting for him as well and after reading up on Göndul, trust me... you'll be convinced too by the time I'm done. Her name means "wand-wielder", which could easily tie into Rasputin's mysticism. Alright then, that was easy. Oh yeah, she also hangs out with two Kings in one story, Hedinn of Serkland and Hogni of Denmark, seducing them both via a memory-altering drought. Alright, that's pretty Rasputin of her to bang royalty and manipulate them, ngl. Oh, and then she proceeds to watch over both of their kingdoms as they wage war until they're on civil terms and then proceeds to fuck them over one last time, resulting in their doom and making them regret they ever met her. That is literally Rasputin's life right there, folks.
- Now that we know how Rasputin will fight and how shitty of a person he is, I'd like to introduce you to Beelzebub. Beelzebub has a surprisingly amount of meanings attached to his character though not very many stories, so you could spend a long time finding different interpretations of this character but you'll never really know which one the author will choose... unless you look at every other god in this series and notice what's not there. Christianity doesn't play a part in this series at all and it doesn't take a genius to see why, it's controversial and this series just wants to have fun and be goddamn amazing, and I don't blame the author for it at all. That being said, if there's one character that I'm absolutely positive the author is itching to use, it's Satan. There's no real devil in this series, even Loki doesn't really embody that symbol of pure evil, he's just Loki and that's fine. But I find it incredibly likely that the author essentially wanted to have a devil without calling him Satan, Lucifer, or any other even minorly controversial moniker. I think that Beelzebub is the safest alias to use for this devil archetype and for that purpose, the author was smart to use it.
That being said, we've established who Beelzebub will embody: The Devil. He'll be evil, ugly, 1000% utilize his wings since Beelzebub can essentially be interpreted as "Lord of Flies", "Lord of Fliers", or even "Lord of High Place" so the sky's the limit. Since he'll be a typical aerial devil, I'd imagine that Rasputin will need something long-range like a wand to utilize his mysticism. As for the winner... well, I suppose I should mention the overall theme since I forgot to do that, but I'd imagine it's pretty obvious at this point. They're the shittiest people in existence and that's really it. Rasputin was allegedly an evil person, manipulating royals and wielding their hope against them and apparently capitalizing on recoveries done in pure luck, fueling his reputation and enjoying all of the benefits of that by seducing believers and royals alike, whether they were married or he was. He wasn't a great person at all and that much is clear, which is why we need someone either equally horrible or worse and that's why Beelzebub needs to be Satan in this series. So we feel conflicted whether the demon wins or well... if the other demon wins. If you're wondering why Rasputin will win though, you need not go any further than recalling Brun's quote during Jack's fight:
The only way in which men are superior to the gods is malice.

11. Apollo vs. Simo
Volund: A lot of people throw out Hlaðguðr Svanhvít's name due to the parallelism between Simo's nickname "The White Death" and her name's meaning of "Swan-white", but that's literally all there is to it. It's not bad, but it's not enough and it's not the best either. For a bit I moved on to other volunds, like Mist who could control, well, mist. Clouds make for great cover for a sniper, so it's possible that this could help camouflage Simo as well as suppress Apollo's light/heat/sun and all that, but even so, that's not the best volund for Simo in my eyes. What I settled on was Ölrún, or if you're going by Old High German, Ailrun. This is important, so keep it in mind. In Germanic mythology, Ailrun is the wife of Agilaz, the legendary archer, though he also goes by Egil. I know, but that's the end of the name-tracking, don't worry. Egil was a renowned archer who defended a keep together with his wife, Aliruna, against numerous attackers. If holing up with your husband and defending a keep with just a bow doesn't scream "I'm the sniper's volund" to you, then I don't really know what to say at this point. Considering Simo's got a kill count of over 500, it sounds like Ölrún's in good hands though.
- One of my favorite matchups in theory, this one was probably the easiest to see and the earliest that I knew I wanted to see. Apollo has a sword, but he's credited with the invention of archery as well as the god of archery. He's also the god of the sun, light, poetry, music and various other things, but I want to focus on what I've mentioned and how much Sim contrasts him in nearly every way possible except for one. Apollo embodies two things: Heat and Communication. He is essentially the sun, riding a chariot across the sky every day and bringing warmth to others through music and poetry and interacting with all of life. He's a bright guy and then... there's Simo. Simo is from Finland, where the cold can kill a man. He spent a great deal of time in the military as a sniper, which isn't a very social job, so to speak. A sniper is often isolated, alone, waiting patiently in the elements for the right time to strike. Simo was pretty creative when he sniped as well, choosing iron-sights over newer, easier scopes for practical reasons such as wishing not to reflect light and also putting dense amounts of snow in his mouth so his breath wouldn't alert enemy snipers of his position. He killed over 500 people in service to the Finnish military and yet hardly spoke a word of it for the rest of his life. Simo's entire character can be summarized as quiet, isolated and even cold in contrast to Apollo's vibrant, social, and warm demeanor. It's odd to see a human occupying this space in this particular series, but Simo really is the winter to Apollo's summer and it's a perfect contrast.
Except when we talk about weapons. Since Apollo is the god of archery, it seems pretty clear that he's going to have a bow. Simo is, of course, going to use his main weapon, a Mosin–Nagant Model 28-30 sniper rifle that he clocked in over 259 kills alone with, before doubling the count with his Suomi KP/-31 submachine gun. It seems likely that the sniper rifle will be his volund initially, but there's also the real possibility that ammunition will be the real volund since the vast amount of enemies that both Simo and Ölrún dealt with were their biggest issue and it's possible that he'll run out eventually unless he has an infinite supply. It would make for a nice surprise as well, seeing Simo pull out his submachine gun at closer ranges and being able to utilize it without it being useless. Also, there's something that I haven't mentioned because most already know about it, but Simo was discharged from the military due to an injury that blew off basically half his face, due to an explosive round from an enemy sniper. Imagine the sneakiest, big-brain, high-IQ move of Simo shooting Apollo square in the face with nowhere to run, only to have him catch the seemingly harmless bullet before Simo shoots it with a normal one and blows it up, disfiguring Apollo as well. Personally, I'd love the shit out of that. Anyways, Simo's going to get this one both on account of A. The whole W/L order, B. Simo's sudden retirement and loss of a real drive in life, and C. His quiet demeanor and Apollo's sheer likability. I get the feeling that Simo's win will be incredibly big-brain since the real person always found a way to make it work in his favor through practicality and sheer patience. You got this Simo, we believe in you.

12. Loki vs. Tesla
Volund: Brun, Brun, Brun... oh boy. Let me start by saying that this entire fight as well as the final fight up next are both going to go exactly like this exclusively because of the valkyries involved. That being said, let's dive into some etymology. In its various forms, Brunhild is derived from the equivalents of Old High German brunia (armor) and hiltia (conflict), thereby making a good ol' combo of war armor. Who needs war armor more than arguably anyone else on this list? The scrawny inventor is probably a good bet. Who's the smartest, most devious person on humanity's side? If you answered either Brun or Tesla, you're right, which is why they're the perfect duo. That being said, they're such a badass, big-brain duo that it seems fitting that they'd have to face off against the only opponent capable of outwitting them. Now, I have a strange theory about how she'll be Tesla's battle armor but I don't want to spoil the surprise, so read down below if you want to know one way that I think she'll help him.
- Here we are... the much-awaited fight between the two three biggest brains in this entire tournament. Following the previous fight, this one will definitely raise the stakes quite a bit by Brun being part of it. It won't feel like your average bout between a god and human that we've never seen before, it'll feel like the endgame since we've already become well-acquainted with the god and valkyrie by this point and only one of them is going to make it out alive. The themes are pretty damn easy to spot and numerous if you care to find them: Truth vs. Deception, Intellect vs. Deviousness, Science vs. Magic, there's a lot and more that I just haven't thought of in these last 10 seconds, but they're there. Now, this is definitely going to take place in Tesla's lab or some location of Tesla's choice because why wouldn't it? Now then, since it'll take place in a lab or technologically advanced setting, Tesla will definitely have a lot of tools at his disposal during this fight. Imagine Jack, except with a brilliant scientist/inventor.
Now, I have a theory of how this'll play out but it's more wishful thinking than anything. I imagine Loki in a lab, stumbling upon a contraption. Robot, mech, whatever you want to call it, it's basically iron man with Brun infused in it and Tesla piloting it. Loki will fight it, wrestle and tumble and struggle and be very deceptive as they hunt one another down in a lab setting with various chemicals, tools and technological wonders at Tesla's disposal. It'll be just as amazing as the sentence "Loki will fight a mech'd out Tesla in a laboratory" full of moments where Tesla nearly kills Loki with sheer technological firepower and ingenuity until... Loki finally destroys it. He kills Brun in the process, breaking the volund mech. Tesla too it seems, until it's revealed that Tesla was actually never in it. That Tesla was actually crafting a far more dangerous weapon from a safe distance, one that can kill Loki. Call it a death ray, if you will. He uses it as it's his last hope now that Brun is gone, but... before he can, Loki actually does kill him. This is obviously just how I envision it, but considering what the author's done so far, this wouldn't be too far out there and would feel in line with the way that they write and manage to do every character justice. So yeah, sadly deception would triumph, leaving Brun dead and Göll broken, yet also incredibly motivated right on time for the final match.

13. Odin vs. Leonidas(?)
Volund: Geir, Göll, whatever the shit you want to call her. It's actually Göll, but translation errors caused many to call her Geir funnily enough, which I think was a stroke of luck since Geir is a root for multiple other valkyries' names and it means "Spear", which is the weapon that I actually believe Göll will be as a volund, but that's for later. Her name has up to three different meanings: "Noisy", "Loud cry", or "Battle cry". We've seen her be noisy quite a bit, as she's often whining and really not on top of any situation. But I think after the previous match and losing Brun, she'll finally have a reason to weep or "Loud cry" and during the intermission she'll find the courage to be the person that Brun wished her to be - the savior of Humanity. At this point, for this final battle, she'll probably still have a bit of nerves, but she'll be determined enough to go through with it and step into that "Battle cry" phase of her name. Maybe I'm looking into it too much and I could easily be wrong about the etymology's impact on her character development, but I really do think that thematically it would be nice to end her story with a massive growth like this and, sadly, Brun will need to die in order to achieve that growth in Göll. Anyways, yeah. She's going to be a spear, because Leonidas is all that's left and she's going to need some way to inflict damage. Leo primarily uses a sword, but considering he'll be going up against Odin who also wields a spear that never misses, I'd imagine Leonidas will have a spear volund too. Also, the Geir thing really does seem prophetic in a really weird meta way.
- Oh boy, we're at the end of it all... first up are themes and reasons. Themes are clearly Last Stands first and foremost. Who embodies humanity's last stand more from humanity's list than King Leonidas that died during a last stand against the Persians at Thermopylae? The guy's entire legendary life ended with a last stand, and that's enough for me but I'll keep going. Odin is clearly final boss level, and it seems fitting considering this is the Record of Ragnarok. The title itself is a clear reference to Norse mythology, and the whole point of it all is to rise against the gods, so it seems to fit pretty snuggly that the final boss is the patriarch of the Norse pantheon. He also has perfectly low-key final boss vibes from a storytelling perspective in the sense that he's been shown many, many, maaaany times though never given a spotlight, never spoken (himself, at least), and he's on the roster. It's perfect, establishing a villain early on but waiting till it's his turn to let him shine. He's the wisest of the gods, it makes sense as to why he'd go last since he'd probably want to predict who he'll go against and use that knowledge to increase his odds of winning. Oh yeah, they're also both wise Kings that led great warriors into battle. It's not very specific, but you wouldn't find that sort of mirror image between any other god and human aside from perhaps Qin Shi Huang and Bishamonten. Now that we're past all the ways that they're perfect for one another, let's move onto the final battle.
Let's get two things straight: I don't have a damn clue how the actual fight will go down, but I'm damn sure that Odin isn't winning*. That would just be wayyy too depressing of an ending to let humanity get this far and then have them lose. It doesn't matter how nice of a light you view that in, whether the gods are kind and merciful and go "Gee whiz, champ, you humans sure put up a good fight! Guess you can live," Nah. That takes away the entire point of this series and Shiva's entire rant about breaking free from the gods' shackles. We NEED to win. So I'm going to operate based upon the presumption that we WILL win. I'm going to assume that this will be a hopeful ending for humanity and that every fight, but more importantly every death, will not be in vain. That we can achieve this impossible goal if we work together, with humanity, with volunds, against fate itself and all that gooey shit. So that being said, it's likely that Leonidas with the help of Göll will defeat Odin and redeem himself for dying at Thermopylae, likely in a fashion that would do his character justice, such as dodging Gungnir (Odin's spear that never misses) and managing to hit Odin with Göll, as he couldn't do to Xerxes at Thermopylae. Humanity will win, the Valkyries will have accomplished their goal. All will be right again and it'll be deemed that humanity has earned their right to survive. Roll curtain, folks.

Author's Notes
At the end of the day, I tried to approach every fight from at least four different standpoints: A writer's standpoint, a reader's standpoint, a historian's standpoint, and at the end of it all, I asked myself if it just seemed right. If every little bit clicked together neatly and if that clicked with the author's style. If what I envision when I add it all together really is what I expect from this manga series, and after taking it all into consideration, I have to say... it makes perfect sense, honestly, every single bit of it.
I 1000% believe this will happen, but I also recognize that there's clearly a real possibility that the author may very well just go with even one different matchup*, leaving a vast majority of this to crumble really badly. That's alright, honestly, I do this for fun because I love the series so it's perfectly fine if I'm wrong because I know that no matter what the author will blow our goddamn minds and it'll be beautiful regardless.

* If I could add two notes at the end of this all, I'd allow myself the wiggle room of poooooossibly switching Kintoki and Nostradamus because Buddha, Bishamonten and Kintoki are all very closely tied to Buddhism, leaving open the very real possibility that Nostradamus could fight Buddha instead and Kintoki could fight Bishamonten. It wouldn't change a whole lot for Kintoki honestly, considering that Bishamonten seems quite similar to Buddha in nature anyways, being one of the Four Heavenly Kings within Buddhism. If anything, it would allow both fighters to have means of defending themselves and allow for a more action-oriented fight between a spear-wielding god and a martial arts legend of humanity, which arguably sounds pretty damn cool. It would also make for a pretty fitting matchup since Bishamonten is closely linked to monetary wealth and Kintoki is the Golden Boy and all that. That would also lead to Nostradamus vs. Buddha, which in itself could work quite well thematically since the basic tenets of Buddhism are that nothing is fixed or permanent, actions have consequences, and that change is possible. That would certainly make for quite the philosophical debate, if not physical spectacle against someone so fate-oriented and driven by prophecy and pre-ordained events. So yeah, now you know the one single little matchup that I'll allow wiggle room. Everything else is non-negotiable though, so don't worry, I'm not backtracking on anything.
My second note would be the possibility of a tie that I mentioned at the very start with my W/L order and the fact that I never addressed that. If I'm being honest, it's almost guaranteed that humanity WILL win, but on the off-chance that Odin and Leonidas kill each other at the very end, it would also make sense for many reasons. 1. Leonidas is very under-equipped for that matchup, so unless he has multiple volunds (which would be pretty goddamn amazing and I'd love to see that, ngl) then he'll probably struggle a LOT. 2. Odin's spear, Gungnir, literally never misses. Imagine trying to live against that, even with a shield. 3. Leonidas DID die at Themopylae, so although thematically it'd make more sense to let him redeem himself and live this time, perhaps it wouldn't be too sad if he died again as long as humanity got to survive. A double K.O. wouldn't be too bad in that event. And last but not least, 4. If there's one good lesson that I considered everyone taking away from this story in the event of a tie, it's partially that the gods aren't better than humanity, which, yeah, no shit. We all knew that the second that Kojiro murdered Poseidon and everyone lost their shit. But, the rest of the lesson is that humanity aren't better than the gods either. If I'm right about Rasputin vs. Beelzebub, or about Rasputin winning at all against anyone, then that proves that. Some of us are really shitty people, with great potential to be even shittier. So if there's one thing that a tie would tell us that a win wouldn't, it's that neither gods nor humans are better than one another. We're equal and maybe that's not entirely a bad thing. Maybe one side doesn't have to be better or stronger or faster or smarter than the other. Maybe we should be happy with just being. Maybe the real friends we made along the way were the Frog-sama memes.

In any case, thank you all for making it to the end and I hope you enjoy the ride as much as I do.
submitted by SixthCourier to ShuumatsuNoValkyrie [link] [comments]

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