Premier League Results & Historical Odds, Soccer England

Rookie (SF) Rankings With Explanations

Tier 1
1 Joe Burrow, QB, 6'2/221, CIN (1.01)
Depending on roster need and team makeup, I would be fine taking one of the other tier 1 players above Burrow but Burrow is absolutely worth the #1 overall pick in any year. While he lacks elite arm talent, Burrow has incredible accuracy, poise, and mobility to manipulate the pocket. As a prospect, I prefer him to Kyler Murray from last year by a decent amount. CIN isn't the greatest situation from an organizational standpoint but they've assembled a decent amount of talent around him in AJG, Boyd, Higgins, Ross, and Mixon.
2 Clyde Edwards Helaire, RB, 5'7/207, KC (1.32)
Small, bowling-ball shaped runner with incredible contact balance, lateral agility, and pass catching ability. Has decent burst but lacks prototypical long speed and size. Pre-draft, CEH was my RB5 but he moves up here with the landing spot and draft capital. Even as my RB5, I was still a big fan of CEH and in KC he doesn't need to have bellcow type size in order to produce at a high level. His game vs Alabama my be the best game from any RB prospect this year.
3 Jonathan Taylor, RB, 5'10/226, IND (2.09)
My RB2 pre-draft, Taylor is right there with CEH in the top tier. Taylor is a huge RB that excels in a power rushing attack where he can use his combo of size and burst to explode into the second level. That's exactly what he gets in IND, the perfect landing spot for his skillset. Potential issues with pass catching usage may limit his ceiling a little but the floor is incredibly high.
Tier 2
4 D'Andre Swift, RB, 5'8/212, DET (2.03)
My pre-draft RB1 and the #2 RB drafted, Swift is a huge value right now in all the rookie drafts I've done. Even when on the field with Chubb and Michel as a freshman, Swift stood out as the best RB of the three. Ridiculous lateral agility to make defenders miss, great burst, fantastic receiver, and solid contact balance. The DET landing spot doesn't worry me as much as it seems to worry others. It's clearly below KC and IND (otherwise he'd be in tier 1) but he's tied to a very good, reasonably young QB and I like the offense as a whole with Golladay, Hockenson, MJ, and a solid OL. Kerryon does worry me, however, and there is some risk that Swift never take over as a bellcow.
5 Cam Akers, RB, 5'10/217, LAR (2.20)
My Predraft RB3 in the same tier as Swift and Taylor, Akers has all the tools you look for in a stud RB - size, violence, burst, contact balance, lateral agility, and pass catching. Moreover, he landed in a great landing spot in LA and received very good draft capital. This time last year people were describing the Rams as the best system for RBs in the NFL. Huge upside here for Akers' usage as a bellcow and he has the best opportunity of any of the RBs this year except for CEH.
https://gph.is/g/apb5eq6
https://gph.is/g/aKAbBy3
https://gph.is/g/4bB5Yen
6 JK Dobbins, RB, 5'9/209, BAL (2.23)
I really liked Dobbins coming out but had him a tier below Swift, Taylor, and Akers. Very solid runner in all areas but lacks an elite, defining trait. I really like the landing spot in BAL long term but there is concern about this year with Ingram plus I don't see the potential for much receiving usage with LJax. Really like the player and I'd be ecstatic to have him but I don't see him as the consensus RB3 as recent trends suggest.
7 Tua Tagliovola, QB, 6/217, MIA (1.05)
If you really need a QB I'm fine moving Tua to the top of this tier. Like Burrow, Tua lacks ideal arm talent but wins with his mobility and accuracy. While Tua has a longer track record than Burrow, he never put up a season like Burrow did last year. The injuries scare me and there are some question marks about how well Tua can go through his progressions - at Alabama there were a lot of first read throws. The situation in Miami is ok, I like the OL picks that MIA made but this is still a rebuilding team with a ton of holes.
Tier 3
8 Jerry Jeudy, WR, 6'1/193, DEN (1.15)
The best separator in the class, Jeudy reminds me of Stefon Diggs. Very pro ready WR with advanced releases off the line and route running. Phenomenal YAC ability with the ball in his hands. Knows how to manipulate his speed to set up defenders. Not a very physical WR and you won't see him making many contested catches. Situation isn't great with Sutton next to him but Lamb is in a similar touch squeeze so I'll take my preferred talent.
9 CeeDee Lamb, WR, 6'1/198, DAL (1.17)
The best playmaker in the class. Much better ball skills than Jeudy but lacks the quick twitch and ability to separate. Plus he faced easier competition and didn't have to deal with a lot of press coverage. While he's competing with a locked in WR1 in DAL, Lamb landed in an explosive offense with a young QB. Think he can be very productive as Dak's #2 target.
10 Jalen Reagor, WR, 5'11/206, PHI (1.21)
Loved Reagor pre-draft and he received premium draft capital in my favorite landing spot. Reagor immediately stands out when watching him. Extremely twitched up and explosive, Reagor separates as well as defenders struggle keeping up. Provides a deep threat but has also flashed the ability to make tough contested catches and good sideline footwork. PHI was my favorite WR landing spot in the class as I'm a big fan of that offense and Wentz and they have a huge hole at WR.
https://gph.is/g/4w8d3Lx
https://gph.is/g/4L5bpev
https://gph.is/g/ZPm5zPX
11 Justin Herbert, QB, 6'6/235, LAC (1.06)
I don't like Herbert as a player but this is the value play in superflex. Herbert has great arm talent and mobility but he had lots of easy reads at Oregon and consistently disappointed. Struggles out of rhythm and a little robotic as a player. Still, the Chargers situation is great and the top 10 draft capital should guarantee him a starting role for a while. Great value in drafts if you can get him at the end of the 1st.
Tier 4
12 Brandon Aiyuk, 5'11/205, WR, SF (1.25)
One of my favorite players pre-draft. Can win all over the field in a variety of ways - explosion out of breaks, YAC ability, deep speed, or physicality. Has the rare ability to come out of his breaks without losing any explosion. Love the draft capital and the landing spot is ok. I trust Shanahan and that should be a productive offense for a long time. Issues arise given the run first nature of the offense and competition with another great young WR in Deebo. Watch the Oregon game if you want to get excited.
https://gph.is/g/Zd75D5D
https://gph.is/g/4zqY3DK
https://gph.is/g/4AjblvO
https://gph.is/g/Z2mbxg7
13 Justin Jefferson, WR, 6'1/202 MIN (1.22)
The safest WR after Jeudy and Lamb, Jefferson should be able to step into the slot immediately and produce. If you want to lower your risk then pick Jefferson. He's very quick out of his breaks, creates consistent separation from the slot, very good YAC ability, and flashes contested catch ability. I don't see him playing outside and he's not as dynamic as other WRs in this class. Very good landing spot in MIN with Diggs' departure. Watch the Oklahoma game if you want to get excited.
14 Henry Ruggs, WR, 5'11/188, LVR (1.12)
The first WR drafted, Ruggs could be a great value where I have him ranked. Still, I love the WRs above him and I wasn't a big Ruggs fan coming out. Incredible speed and flashes some toughness and decent route running as well. Think he struggles with physicality and didn't separate as much as he should because he's a long strider rather than a compact, twitched up player. I think Gruden is going to feed him a ton of targets and thus could be very productive early on.
15 Laviska Shenault, WR, 6'1/227, JAX (2.10)
Absolutely love Shenault. Comp is Sammy Watkins. Great combo of size, physicality, explosivenes and YAC. Needs refinement but it'll be hard to keep his playmaking off the field. Biggest concern is injuries. His 2018 games vs Nebraska and game vs USC this year are great.
https://gph.is/g/apbqw33
https://gph.is/g/Z7ge57R
https://gph.is/g/46vO5Dd
https://gph.is/g/ZrdDloG
16 Tee Higgins, WR, 6'4/216, CIN (2.01)
Big WR with huge frame to extend himself for difficult balls. Timed speed was disappointing but had the ability to threaten deep at Clemson. Fantastic hands and advanced footwork. Risky as he struggles with physicality (he'll see a LOT more of that in the NFL) and not a great separator. Love the situation with Burrow and the draft capital.
17 Michael Pittman, WR, 6'4/223, IND (2.02)
Decent speed and explosion for his size, some YAC ability, fantastic jump ball catcher, huge frame which he uses to shield defenders. Landing spot in IND is good for the next few years with Rivers but some worries once Rivers leaves. Has a clearly defined role as the X WR and complements Hilton and Campbell very well.
18 Jordan Love, QB, 6'3/224, GB (1.26)
Probably the best value in SF leagues of all the rookies. I'm a big Jordan Love fan (especially at his price). Has jaw dropping arm talent and extremely mobile. Unlike Herbert, Love was asked to make extremely difficult plays and delivered. His issues aren't with accuracy but moreso decision making. He'll lock onto his first read at times and make incredibly stupid throws. I'm ok with the landing spot as I trust GB as an organization, however, he'll probably sit for a few years. Huge upside here.
https://gph.is/g/aKAgJje
https://gph.is/g/Z5YbQ36
https://gph.is/g/4L5bqK0
https://gph.is/g/aQO5gDA
19 AJ Dillon, RB, 6/247, GB (2.30)
Like Love, he's another amazing value in drafts this year given the depth and quality of the class. In any other year, a 2nd round RB with his size, athleticism, and production would be a top 5 pick but you can get him in the mid/late 2nd consistently. I didn't love the player coming out, but I recognized that he has the ability to be a big time producer if put in the right type of offense and that's exactly what happened in GB. I think his production this year has been undersold and with Aaron Jones' contract expiring next year, he'll likely take over as the RB1 in 2021.
Tier 5
20 Antonio Gibson, RB, 6/228, WSH (3.02)
Big upside low floor pick. Gibson is one of the most exciting players to watch in this class with his big play ability, size, and explosion. At Memphis he played mostly slot WR but he was a pretty shitty WR and his upside lies at RB. He has a lot of work to do as he doesn't know what he's doing yet as a RB but the traits are really exciting - contact balance + burst. Could be David Johnson if things hit right. Don't love the landing spot as I'm still very high on Guice plus there is still a question mark regarding how Washington plans to use him. If he's used as a Wgadget guy then I don't have much interest in him.
https://gph.is/g/ZOk5mNj
https://gph.is/g/EGgbr8M
https://gph.is/g/aeA5wDX
https://gph.is/g/aXJ53nR
https://gph.is/g/aKAb9z9
21 Denzel Mims, WR, 6'3/206, NYJ (2.27)
I was never as high as others on Mims and didn't get the round 1 hype. However, his combination of athleticism and ball skills are very exciting and worth betting on here. He's a very boom/bust type of prospect. Landed in a very good spot with a young, good QB in Darnold lacking a #1 WR.
22 Bryan Edwards, WR, 6'3/212, LVR (3.17)
Absolutely loved Edwards pre-draft and had him in my top 50 overall players. He's big, physical, explosive, versatile, and has fantastic ball skills. Landing spot is ok - the Raiders have a long term need at X WR but the team drafted Ruggs first so I think Gruden is going to prioritize Ruggs. Could be a few years before Edwards pays off.
https://gph.is/g/EJYbRne
https://gph.is/g/a99bdlP
https://gph.is/g/EGgb9Ml
https://gph.is/g/aRW5N7w
23 Zack Moss, RB, 5'9/223, BUF (3.22)
Very similar player as David Montgomery. Excellent contact balance, toughness, pass catching ability, plus some wiggle but lacks juice. If there is a crease it takes him too long to hit it. Still, pretty good value to get a David Montgomery level player at 2.12. Landing spot is ok and your feeling about it is dependent on how you feel about Singletary. I love Singletary so I'm not high on the landing spot but its very possible that BUF doesnt see Singletary as a lead back.
24 Ke'Shawn Vaughn, RB, 5'10/214, TB (3.12)
Didn't like Vaughn pre-draft and I was very surprised when he went this early. Vaughn is a solid all around RB that should be able to produce if given volume but I don't see any dynamic traits. Very much a replacement level RB. Still, TB has a potential opening at RB and the team spent good draft capital on him.
Tier 6
25 KJ Hamler, WR, 5'9/178, DEN (2.12)
Could easily have Hamler at the end of tier 5. Immediately stands out on film with his twitchiness and speed, defenders simply cannot hang with him. Don't see a huge difference between him and Hollywood Brown purely as prospects coming out. Effortless separation with his quickness and speed. Could be more valuable in real football than the NFL. Don't like the landing spot for fantasy as he's stuck behind two great, young WRs.
26 Chase Claypool, WR, 6'4/238, PIT (2.17)
Freaky player with his combo of size and athleticism. Great draft capital to a team that has consistently developed WRs. Massive player with explosiveness to put CBs on their heels quick. Biggest asset right now is his YAC - should immediately be a weapon on screens and crossers. Flashes ability to box out defenders but is not natural attacking the ball and lacks overall smoothness to his game. Landing spot is odd with JuJu and Diontae already in place, however, if JuJu leaves a lot of opportunity opens up. Watch the Iowa St game to get excited.
27 Van Jefferson, WR, 6'1/200, LAR (2.25)
I had a 3rd round grade on Jefferson pre-draft so I like the player. Projects as an NFL-ready slot WR with quickness and route running nuance. Got the best of LSU star freshman CB Stingley this past year. Odd landing spot as the Rams already have Kupp in the slot and I can't see either moving outside.
Tier 7
28 Darrynton Evans, RB, 5'10/203, TEN (3.29)
One of the most explosive players in this class, Evans is a threat to break off a big run at any time. With his lack of physicality and size, I don't see him projecting as a starting RB even if Henry leaves next year. Likely a career committee back.
29 Anthony McFarland, RB, 5'8/208, PIT (4.18)
Really fun, explosive player that should get on the field immediately. Like Darrynton Evans, I struggle seeing him taking over a feature back but should have a long term role given his explosivness.
30 Cole Kmet, TE, 6'6/262, CHI (2.11)
Not a very flashy or exciting player but projects as a solid starting NFL TE. The draft capital really helps and has a decent floor given his ability as a blocker. Think Kyle Rudolph type of career if he hits.
31 Adam Trautman, TE, 6'5/255, NO (3.41)
Big, physical TE that dominated small school competition and can win in traffic and over the middle of the field. Isn't especially fluid out of his breaks and doesn't project as a potential top tier TE. Really like that NO traded so much for him and I trust Sean Payton.
32 Devin Asiasi, TE, 6'3/257, NE (3.27)
If any TE in this class develops into a top tier fantasy TE, I wouldn't be surprised if it was Asiasi. Former high recruit that transferred to UCLA and didn't produce until his last season. He's smaller than Kmet and Trautman but he's just as good of a blocker and he's way more fluid than both. Really like the landing spot and draft capital as well.
33 Joshua Kelley, RB, 5'11/212, LAC (4.06)
This could be too low as the situation is phenomenal and draft capital is decent but I'm not high on the player. He's solid and can produce if given volume in a good situation (both very possible in LAC) but doesn't have any standout trait and looks like a replacement level player to me.
34 Lamical Perine, RB, 5'11/216, NYJ (4.14)
A better version of Joshua Kelley to me but in a worse situation. Very solid all round back that is a very good receiver. Lacks juice or standout qualities but solid overall. If Bell declines, leaves, or gets injured I think Perine could step in and surprise. Some worry about the Frank Gore signing.
35 Devin Duvernay, WR, 5/10/200, BAL (3.28)
Slot WR with strong hands and great ability with the ball in his hands but struggles to create separation out of his breaks. Should be great on screens and special teams.
36 Gabe Davis, WR, 6'2/216, BUF (4.22)
Big body WR with great physicality and decent speed/explosion for his size. Project player with some upside.
37 Joe Reed, WR, 6/224, LAC (5.05)
Really love the player, Reed is a twitched up YAC guy with RB type of size and ability with the ball in his hands.
38 JaMycal Hasty, RB, 5'8/208, SF (UDFA)
My favorite 3rd down/satellite back in this entire class, Hasty is lighting quick and explosive with great pass catching ability. If any team can turn a UDFA into a star it's Kyle Shannahan and there is a ton of opportunity in SF.
39 Darnell Mooney, WR, 5'10/176, CHI (5.28)
Deep ball threat with good production and CHI has a clear need for that type of deep threat.
40 Mike Warren, RB, PHI, 5'9/226, PHI (UDFA)
Not sure that I would actually draft him here but I wanted to get his name on the list. Really fun player to watch, he's like a 95% version of Zack Moss. Great size, awesome power, surprising wiggle and pass catching ability but lacks the requisite explosive qualities. I actually really like the landing spot in PHI as they do not have a bigger back to complement Sanders.
NOTICE THAT JALEN HURTS IS NOT ON THIS LIST. He'd probably be around #35 but I have him low enough to where I probably won't every draft him so I didn't include him on the list.
submitted by Chwf3rd to DynastyFF [link] [comments]

All the games that have been played only once on the NLSS

Since NL asked for it on the Wednesday show, I thought I would make a list. All info and links are from TwoAndAHalfScums so if there are mistakes I'm completely innocent. Also I've included links to the them being played. The list is in alphabetical order. The list also includes shows without NL/noNLSS and the solo shows. Naturally there are probably mistakes here so the final number is probably slightly off. For example clubhouse includes Checkers and President, but he also played them on Tabletop Sim on the NLSS so if you want to strike them out go ahead. I didn't count the minigames from Tower Unite as separate games. The latest NLSS (July 15th 2020) had two games played for the first time, Wanba Warriors and Party Arena: Board Game Battler. Since that show doesn't have a permanent link I haven't put any on them.
The conclusion according to my calculations is that 256 games have been played once on the NLSS.
submitted by Kamandi91 to northernlion [link] [comments]

Short the literal FUCK out of IQ

Disclaimer and Risks: This is not financial advice, and you must always be cautious when betting against Winnie the Pooh. One major risk factor is the fact that BIDU owns 50% of IQ, and even more worrisome is that 30% of BIDU’s revenue stems from IQ. Whether or not China will intervene to prevent the plunge in value of its own version of Google is unknown, but is certainly a risk that should be hedged against. I’m very confident on this trade and have verified some of the more important arguments lined in the paper, but as always do your own DD and hedge appropriately.
Hello you beautiful bastards, it’s been a while. I’m back with another DD, but this time it’ll be a little different than my usual options-exclusive DD. As we all know, volatility was crazy during most of last week, making the Unusual Options Strategy extremely difficult to use due to the amount of noise that was in the options market. In addition, me and the gang are hard at work perfecting our analysis and filtration strategies, so it was a good week to diverge from my usual spiel on Unusual Options.
Now I’ve already seen a couple posts on iQIYI, or $IQ and its potentially fraudulent financial statements. However, me and my team did a deep dive into IQ and the Wolfpack Research report on the subject, and I wanted to offer my own voice in this discussion.
What is IQ?
About a month ago, Wolfpack Research released this report on its findings of evidence of IQ inflating its numbers. While Wolfpack doesn’t exactly have the best track record, the report was corroborated by Muddy Waters, who have a much cleaner track record for spotting these potential frauds.
IQ is known as the "Netflix of China", and is valued at around 12 billion dollars currently. It allows users to stream videos. The company is based in Beijing and is partly owned by Baidu, the "Google of China". It had its IPO in 2018 and is currently sitting at $17.95 per share.
Some of you have pointed out that it’s not the same situation as LK, as LK was cut and dry fraud and the IQ is simply inflating the numbers. I am here to tell you not only is IQ inflating the numbers, it’s actively taking steps to disguise its completely fabricated revenue, user count, and investments. Here is a detailed outline of what exactly the Wolfpack Report has found and see for yourselves if you think IQ should be valued at 12 billion right now.
How is IQ inflating its share prices?
There's more and more evidence piling up against IQ. Here is Wolfpack's full report. There are numerous red flags on IQ's financial statements, and the fact that the stock is still trading at such a premium is absolute insanity. Any single one of the factors above could mean a HUGE drop in share price, and yet we have almost a dozen of these factors congruent to each other. It’s safe to assume investigations of IQ are already well underway, and any negative news will send this stock drilling to the fucking core.
Options Activity
In terms of Options Activity, IQ had a fairly large put buy ahead of their earnings. However, that is not the real focus. If you were to look at the option chain on the LEAPS for IQ, you'll notice huge open interest in the January 2021 put contracts. This indicates that either funds are hedging against a downturn in IQ or are betting for a downturn in IQ's price similar to LK's earlier this year. Either situation plays very much into the bear thesis. There is also significant put option open interest on BIDU.
What the move?
What to play? IQ is a fraudulent company, so their earnings report on Monday is not necessarily going to reflect reality, and therefore the stock price will most likely not drill. However, the prices on the May 22 expiry options imply that you would only need a 1-2 dollar movement in price to be profitable with a strangle, regardless of IV, thus allowing you to profit from both sides in the short term.
In terms of the long term play, IQ will go down just like LK did, it's just a matter of when. LK tanked around 3 months after the Wolfpack report was released. This current report was released April 7th, and already numerous agencies and organizations are investigating IQ and its business partners, as well as several independent law firms.
My Personal Position and TL,DR
I’m personally going with the IQ Sept 18th 15p in order to balance out my cost basis and risk. They’re fairly cheap and will give me plenty of time to roll out to December puts if price action hasn’t moved by July. I’m hedging with 5/22 18C to play earnings and make sure I don’t get burnt if there happens to be a run-up and short term volatility.

UPDATE: Huge put buying and call selling right now, looks like institutions are catching on.
UPDATE: Earnings Call is 9:00 EST, we will wait until then.
EOD May 19: Huge blocks of IQ were sold AH, and new legislation is expected to pass subjecting Chinese companies to regulation by US based auditors and the PCAOB, potentially causing a mass exodus from Chinese equities. BEAR GANG
May 20 UPDATE: As will meade says, wow
submitted by qwertyrayz to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Bullish Options Plays [2-4 Month Horizon]

Bullish Options Plays [2-4 Month Horizon]
This post covers 4 Bullish Option Plays across various industries.
Criteria for selecting Bullish Options Plays:
  • 500MM + Market Cap
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM +
  • Uptrend detected
Using these criteria, I have curated a basket of plays. The time frame of these options are 3-6 months out, to avoid Theta burn and maximize ITM potential. The beauty of these plays is that the stock only needs to move up a few % to be profitable, with a long time horizon as a hedge. Close the position within 2-4 months to minimize theta and maximize delta opportunity.
1) Wells Fargo $WFC [BANKING]
Wells just got hammered after an expected poor earnings. This makes it a prime candidate for upward movement.
Bullish Wells Fargo Case:
Wells has a history of prudent underwriting, and we are probably closer than not to a turn in the credit cycle.
Wells Fargo's retail branch structure, advisory network, product offerings, and share in small and medium-size enterprises is difficult to duplicate, ensuring that the company's competitive advantage is maintained.
Wells offers the scale advantages of a money center bank without the risks and volatility associated with extensive capital markets operations.
Wells Fargo Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?

  • 500MM + Market Cap [99B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [46M]
  • Uptrend detected [Bounced off 52Wk Low as support]
  • **Within 10% of 52 Week Low [52 Week Low was $22, WFC is trading at $24.14]
$WFC Overlay with $JPM - The charts are nearly identical
As a big 4 bank, it is impossible for the Fed to allow WFC to go down. They have a good balance sheet, with a P/E ratio of 8.9, down from 11. The lower P/E ratio alone will bring in more long-term investors. If that isn't enough to make you comfortable, WFC offers a whopping 8% dividend yield, making it even more attractive.
This is an attractive investment for both options and stocks.
Let's take a look at options on $WFC, which I found using my unusual options scanner:
Big Bullish bets for October 16 2020, 2 days after their next earnings.
More Bullish Bets on WFC for October 16 2020
These huge bets range from $25 to $30, 3 months down the line. This averages to a $2.5, or 11% increase over the next 3 months. With this information, I propose:
WFC $27.50c Oct 16 2020, trading at $1.30 at time of writing. 24% Probability ITM.
WFC $30c Oct 16 2020, trading $0.79 at time of writing. 16% Probability ITM.
I am currently invested in $WFC stock, and hold the $30 Oct 16 Calls.
2) Twitter $TWTR [Technology]
Twitter is poised to dominate with its huge reach and rumored subscription platform for content creators. Source:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/8/21317266/twitter-subscription-platform-codename-gryphon-job-listing
This is a buy the rumor, sell the news play. I anticipate Twitter announcing this platform in the next 3 months.
Bullish Twitter Case:
Investments in product enhancements and video content could return the monthly active user growth rate to the double digits.
The deal with the NFL to live-stream Thursday night games and provide a platform for interaction and conversation about the games may attract more premium content providers to use the Twitter platform.
Growth in ad revenue per user remains strong at Twitter, more than offsetting the deceleration in user growth.
Twitter Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?
  • 500MM + Market Cap [27B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [30M]
  • Uptrend detected [Strong upward trend since March]
$TWTR Overlay with $FB - the charts are nearly identical
The value that $TWTR and $FB lost due to lack of advertiser revenue has been recouped. The arrival of a subscription service is very bullish, because more and more people are looking to make money online since being laid off by COVID - Twitter's reach makes it incredibly well positioned to solve this problem. Subscriptions made $MSFT and $AAPL cash cows, expect the same for $TWTR.
This is an attractive investment for both options and stocks.
Let's take a look at options on $TWTR, which I found using my unusual options scanner:
Huge Bullish $TWTR bets for Jan 15, 2021
Huge Bullish $TWTR bets for Jan 15, 2021
Huge Bullish $TWTR bets for Jan 15, 2021
These bets were placed BEFORE COVID, and $TWTR is trading at the same price as when these were placed. The strikes range from $40 to $60, 6 months down the line. Taking a Strike of $40, that is 15% OTM of the current price. If they announce the platform within the next 6 months (I predict they will), the stock will explode.
With this information, I propose:
TWTR $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.25 at time of writing. 28% Probability ITM.
TWTR $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.45 at time of writing. 29% Probability ITM.
Buying $40 Jan 15 2020 Calls are only $20 more for an extra month. Look to close these after their earnings next quarter, when they will likely announce the subscription platform.
I am currently invested in $TWTR stock, and hold the $40 Dec 18 Calls.
3) Southwest Airlines $LUV [AIRLINES]
Warren Buffet and COVID have caused investors to turn a nose up at airline stocks. I don't blame them - the uncertainty will affect airlines more than most other industries. That said, don't miss this opportunity to profit off Southwest Airlines, as they have the best balance sheet in the industry.
Bullish Southwest Airlines Case:
Southwest enjoys the strongest brand in the industry thanks to its simple fare prices, free checked bags, and solid customer service. This brand equity will enable it to continue growing faster than peers and support unit revenue.
Mergers among Southwest's competitors will engender pricing power for the airlines, and oil prices will remain low for longer, boosting Southwest's top and bottom lines.
Southwest's aggressive expansion will continue, driving growth at the carrier.
Southwest Airlines Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?
  • 500MM + Market Cap [20B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [15M]
  • Uptrend detected [Strong upward trend since June]
$LUV Overlay with $AAL and $DAL - Delta and American have been hit worse than Southwest for a reason.
$LUV is performing better than its competitors, with higher lows and higher highs when comparing the charts. With the best balance sheet, its exposure to oil has been proven to be overcome since the whole oil futures fiasco. They have been prepped for the second wave and are most likely to weather the storm out of all the airlines.
My options scanner did not find any significant options data for $LUV.
I propose:
LUV $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.05 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
LUV $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.40 at time of writing. 26% Probability ITM.
I am currently invested in $LUV stock.
4) Ericsson $ERIC [Telecommunications Equipment]
With growing tensions between the US and China, it is unlikely Huawei will be allowed to provide 5G infrastructure. The UK just announced that Huawei will NOT be providing 5G infrastructure, so Ericsson is poised to seize a huge market share.
Bullish Ericsson case:
Income sources could diversify as licensing revenue from 5G patents may grow through applications outside of Ericsson's handset manufacturer agreements.
5G may afford Ericsson a longer spending cycle and higher equipment demand than previous wireless generations. Additionally, 5G should create more use cases for Ericsson's software and services within Internet of Things device networks.
Ericsson's turnaround measures are happening at an opportune time. Management's focused strategy should expand operating margins while 5G infrastructure spending increases top-line results.
Ericsson Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?
  • 500MM + Market Cap [29B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [13M]
  • Uptrend detected [Strong upward trend since March, even stronger after UK Huawei announcement]
$ERIC Overlay with $NOK - Both stocks are strongly trending upward, with almost 100% gains since march.
$ERIC is poised to bank on 5G since Huawei is being punished in retaliation to Chinese handling of Hong Kong. Expect more growth as infrastructure expands and Apple announces their 5G line this fall. Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-iphone-12-rumors-5g-release-camera-specs-2019-6
My options scanner did not find any significant options data for $ERIC.
I propose:
ERIC $11 Nov 20 2020, trading at $0.50 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
I am no longer invested in $ERIC stock - truly kicking myself for selling, because I had a great cost basis a year ago. Regardless, I am picking up these calls.
Conclusion
Based on my research, $WFC, $TWTR, $LUV, and $ERIC are poised for big gains over the next 2 quarters. All the plays have a 25% chance of being ITM, but do not need to be ITM to be extremely profitable.
TL,DR:
WFC $27.50c Oct 16 2020, trading at $1.30 at time of writing. 24% Probability ITM.
WFC $30c Oct 16 2020, trading $0.79 at time of writing. 16% Probability ITM.
TWTR $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.25 at time of writing. 28% Probability ITM.
TWTR $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.45 at time of writing. 29% Probability ITM.
LUV $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.05 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
LUV $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.40 at time of writing. 26% Probability ITM.
ERIC $11 Nov 20 2020, trading at $0.50 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
submitted by iKalculated to options [link] [comments]

How to not get ruined with Options - Part 4a of 4 - Finally, the TRADES!

Post 1: Basics: CALL, PUT, exercise, ITM, ATM, OTM
Post 2: Basics: Buying and Selling, the greeks
Post 3a: Simple Strategies
Post 3b: Advanced Strategies
Post 4a: Example of trades (short puts, covered calls, and verticals)
Post 4b: Example of trades (calendars and hedges)
---
In parts 1 and 2, I explained the basics for options. In parts 3a and 3b I explained simple and more advanced options strategies, but all of this does not help much without concrete examples. These two last posts (4a and 4b) conclude my introduction related to options. I will show some of my key trades, explaining the why, the how, the entries and exits, and potential mitigations in case of losses. Most gave great returns, and I had a few small losses. Overall, in the past few months, I have been lucky to play along with the market, and the high volatility had a positive impact. Hopefully, nothing wsb worthy (although few of them might qualify :)). I wanted to explain the basics first, then show the trades last, as I did not want anyone to try to emulate these without understanding how/why they worked.
First, here are the high-level idioms that drive my investments:
These idioms are pretty straightforward, and should not be too controversial. Overall, I am pretty market neutral, with a bullish tint. And as I explained before, I prefer selling options than buying them. My trades reflect that, and I avoid making trades that could damage my portfolio significantly if the market went up or down significantly. People who get ruined with options do not take this into account and are just gambling.
Other key things about trading in general, and options in particular:
Now the moment we have been waiting for, some of my trades:
The short naked puts or covered calls:
I only do pure covered calls when the market has dropped significantly, and use the recent market conditions as a floor. March dropped quite hard, and I am not convinced that we would reach it again soon, but I still have to prepare for it. That being said, the months of March to June have been really good for covered calls as the market traded up first, then sideways, with high implied volatility. I usually target shares that are solid or did not go up too much, so the March floor is not too far lower than my strike. I usually sell naked puts after a few down days in a row and covered calls after a few up days in a row. And if the market is farther from the floor, I trade safer names when the market goes up, and target high beta when the market dropped significantly.
I am not giving you a full list, but let’s say that it was not hard, and still is, to find good names that return 1-2% per month AFTER accounting for a 15-25% share drop. Yup, you read that right, it does not work in normal markets, but it is the case right now. Even if $WM, $WMT, $INTC, $NNN, $EWW, $DLTR, $COF, $BAC, etc. dropped by around 20%, I would gladly pocket my 1-2% premium, and scoop these at a huge discount. Even if it dropped further, I can continue rolling the puts until the market bounces back. Some of the high beta names include $CCL, $REM, $DIG, $BUD, $JETS, $XOP, etc. For a high beta, I am targeting 3-5-10% or more of premium, but I usually try to offload them when they go up significantly.
But there are few other riskier trades that are worth calling out:
$DKNG - DraftKing: 11.8% in ~3 weeks.
I forgot about the IPO, and got in the game 5 days later. Although, I am not a gambler, and the stock went up already, but I had a feeling that RH fams would jump on it (gamblers beget gamblers), and that would give a floor to the stock. Volatility was high, so selling naked PUTs made sense.
May 7: SELL -1 DKNG 100 15 MAY 20 22.5 PUT @ 1.06
Per contract - Max risk: $2144 - Max profit: $106 (4.9% of max risk)
May 8: SELL -1 DKNG 100 19 JUN 20 22.5 PUT @ 2.15
Per contract - Max risk: $2035 - Max profit: $215 (10.5% of max risk)
As you know the max risk of going to $0 is possible but highly improbable, so RORAC (Return on Risk-Adjusted Capital) is much higher than these 4.9 to 10.5%.
The $1.06 premium was one week before expiration! I sold the MAY and JUNE PUTs at the same time. And the price was at $24 already. If the price dropped, I would continue rolling my PUTs until I am profitable. The price went up, I rolled my MAY PUTs just before earnings (and a day before expiration), to take advantage of the earning volatility, and avoiding expiration day.
May 14: SELL -1 DKNG 100 15 MAY 20/19 JUNE 20 22.5 PUT @ 2.15
Per contract - Max risk: $2035 - Max profit: $215 (10.5% of max risk)
So one week later, I bought back my MAY PUTs for $0.25 (pocketing already 3.7% of the profit) and sold the same JUNE contract as the week before with a better price and an overall premium of $2.15 (same as the week before, despite paying back the $0.25! And the stock was already up in a week. Can you believe that shit? Volatility increase definitely helped. Thanks RH gamblers!).
June 1: BUY +1 DKNG 100 19 JUNE 20 22.5 PUT @ 0.05
After a bit more than 3 weeks of holding, I decided to buy back all my contracts for $0.05 per share, for an overall 11.8% profit on risk. I pretty much reached max profit already, no need to take more risk, with 19 days to go to expiration. FWIW the stock was at $44 by expiration. It was way too much for my taste, with no premium worth the risk of any new trade.
Could I have made more profit buying shares, calls, or synthetic shares? Sure. But there was no guarantee on the direction, timing, or amplitude of the move. Here, I won almost 12% with a high probability of success, even if the stock barely budged or dropped a bit. And since 6/19 expiration, the stock dropped to $33 now. It’s hard to predict when to sell. I want many singles and doubles with few losses, instead of once in a while home runs with many losses in between.
As it dropped for 5 days to $33, I recently sold some PUTs for a $22.5 strike again:
June 29: SELL -1 DKNG 100 21 AUG 20 22.5 PUT @ 1.25
Per contract - Max risk: $2125, max profit: $125 (5.8% of max risk)
Because the PUT was deep OTM, the premium was low. The stock will have to drop by more than 35% for me to start losing money, and I can still roll my PUTs then. That seems a good trade. Wish me luck!
You can see here, that you have to look at your max risk, your max profit for every trade you are getting into, as well as the chance for them to be profitable.
$USO / $DBO / $USL: 12% in 2 months
Here is one that absolutely did not go to plan initially, but I was able to turn it around.
First, the trade that led to the disaster:
April 17: SELL -1 MAY 15 20 4 PUT @ 0.35
Per contract - Max risk: $365 - Max profit: $35 (9.5% of max risk)
Remember that USO split 1:8 on April 29, if you want to look at the numbers. On 4/17, USO was worth $4.20. Oil kept dropping and dropping for weeks and weeks, until that Friday where I decided that it was finally a good time to get into oil (like a bunch of other suckers). The lowest oil price in 40 years, etc. My trade could absorb a 14% loss in USO before I started losing money, so it did not feel too risky, and I could roll the PUTs if needed. USO rolled all their future contracts earlier that week, they were already into May Futures. Yeah, contango was a concern but seemed manageable (or so I thought).
Well, except that on Monday 4/20, oil blew up. What was bad, became an awful day. Oil tanked hard because April futures dropped, and some people paid to get rid of their contracts. Tankers started to get full, too much oil, and not enough space. USO dropped to 3.75, it was still above my break-even point of $3.65, but the volatility spiked, so the value of my short put increased a lot, that was some heavy losses. Why did I go into that trade on Friday, gosh?!?
The volatility was so high, every oil trader was running around like a headless chicken, RH gamblers were taking much heavier losses than mine (because they started buying USO long before me, oil was going to go back up, that was a sure deal! Right?). I decided to wait one more day, to see how the dust would settle. On Tuesday, USO dropped even more because now it started impacting next Month's Future (May). Tuesday was the April Future expiration, so trading was all over the place. USO dropped to $3, well below my break-even point, volatility was still high, my losses were twice as big. There was a strong possibility that May Future expiration would behave the same as April, and the rollover of May Futures to June Futures would end up in a real quagmire due to an even higher contango. USO was not the right tool, I messed up, no way moving forward, even rolling my PUTs are not going to do it, USO will drop faster than the premium I can collect. Get out, get out, get out...
April 21: BUY +1 MAY 15 20 4 PUT @ 1.42
I bought back my short PUT at more than 4 times the premium price. Gulp. That hurts.
Taking a step back, this was an extreme situation and not a normal loss with a stupid long term thesis. And I lost a bit of money jumping at the wrong time. A negative future price is not a common occurrence.
USO was the wrong instrument to profit from oil, it even dropped down to $2.11. And never recovered its value from 4/17 despite oil being higher than that day. I made a mistake, but there must be better instruments that can tackle contango. Enters DBO and USL. DBO has a 6-12 month away contract, so very little impact from contango. USL has the same number of contracts from all months (next month, month after next, etc..., until the 12th month). It is mostly impacted by the contango on the front months (so for 1/12 of the value, or a bit more), but it is not as volatile as USO (USO since changed their composition too, to buy multiple months futures).
Oil blew up, volatility is extremely high, many oil traders (and RH gamblers) got ruined, but oil is bound to go up eventually. The initial trade to sell volatility through selling naked puts, and rolling as needed until oil goes back up, without being killed by the contango still seemed sound with even less risk and better rewards this time around.
April 20: SELL -1 DBO MAY 15 20 6 PUT @ 0.63
Per contract - Max risk: $537 - Max profit: $63 (11.7% of max risk)
April 20: SELL -1 USL MAY 15 20 12 PUT @ 1.05
Per contract - Max risk: $1095 - Max profit: $105 (9.5% of max risk)
April 21: SELL -1 DBO MAY 15 20 5 PUT @ 0.90
Per contract - Max risk: $410 - Max profit: $90 (21.9% of max risk)
April 21: SELL -1 USL MAY 15 20 11 PUT @ 2.25
Per contract - Max risk: $875 - Max profit: $225 (25.7% of max risk)
Notice that I sold the first batch on April 20, as I was still losing money from USO. The volatility spiked, and it was too good to pass. This is a key reason why you should never put all your money on one trade, but only a few percents at most. That way if the things are not going as planned, you don’t lose a ton, and if you can find a more advantageous position, you can double down if you have some dry powder left (but DO NOT overdo it!). It’s all about the proper sizing of trades and overall risk. I sold the 2nd batch when I closed my losing USO trade when oil dropped further and volatility increased even more! 22% to 26% potential profit on ATM puts? Just wow!
The plan for the exit is to close for $0.05 or roll to the next month for further profit. I sized my DBO and USL trades a bit more than my USO trades, so I would make up for the heavy losses. And I did roll in May and closed the June contracts for $0.05 both DBO and USL. Their prices both creeped up slowly, and the volatility dropped to something normal. DBO and USL trades were extremely profitable, and despite the heavy USO losses, the overall profit was still quite good.
Today, the price of DBO and USL is a bit high for a good profit/risk profile with naked short PUTs, however, we have some other strategies.
The verticals:
Most of my bread and butter is on selling naked puts, and/or selling covered calls, but sometimes I dabble in verticals. Here are some examples:
$UBER: 13.2% in a month
This is an example of waiting for the right time before you trade. End of May, the market went up by 36% since the bottom, it started to be over-extended. Although SPY could continue higher, it was time to think about a reversion to the mean. I needed to find a share that would continue to struggle for a long time, even as Coronavirus was lingering. I hear the news that LYFT is taking over UBER’s market and that UBER is still struggling, with potential layoffs. That seems a good candidate, and UBER has a good day at $36, let’s see what we can make of the numbers.
May 29: SELL -1 UBER JUL 17 20 42/45 CALL @ 0.40
Per contract - Max risk: $260 - Max profit: $40 (15.3% of max risk)
So I keep my $40 profit per contract as long as UBER is under $42 at the July 17 expiration. I did not pick $42 randomly, this was actually above the top that UBER reached in February. So the struggling UBER would need to go over its pre-corona numbers for me to lose money. Unlike naked puts / covered calls, where you can just be patient and roll over and over, sizing for verticals is important, the potential for full losses is a real possibility, and will happen. Sure, you could try to roll your short call and hope that the stock price will drop, but you may just end up amplifying your losses. If you really want to do that and continue with the risk, it’s easier to roll your short puts in a bull spread as the market will eventually go up.
In any case, UBER continued to go up a bit, struggled at $38 (so not even close to my vertical), then reversed. I put an order to close my position at $0.05, as there was almost a month left until expiration, and I already almost reached my max profit.
June 22: BUY +1 UBER JUL 17 20 42/45 CALL @ 0.05
$SPY: Various
I also have been using SPY verticals directly as the market bounced back like crazy. I earned more than I lost, and because I am overall positive delta, even if I lose a bit of money on my edges, I am still very profitable.
For shit and giggles, one trade to show how you can take advantage of the high volatility:
June 5: SELL -1 SPY JUL 17 20 330/333 CALL @ 0.91
Per contract - Max risk: $209 - Max profit: $91 (43.5% of max risk)
June 26: BUY +1 SPY JUL 17 20 330/333 CALL @ 0.08
Profit of $83 per contract (39.7% of max risk)
June 5, SPY was $320, 45% higher than the bottom 2½ months ago, and I had hard time believing that after the market really thought that SPY would go back to pre-corona level with still phase 1 not over, no clear treatment, vaccine many months away, and potential for a 2nd wave (News flash: It’s happening before even the phase1 finished). Trees don’t grow to the sky. Again being, overall positive delta, even if this vertical had a loss, I would still profit from SPY going over my short calls. As I said earlier, I am a reversion to the mean guy, with a bullish tint. I can’t stand losing money when the market is going up (because the market could always continue going back up).
Here is another trade, not so good this time, so I don’t paint an overly rosy picture:
May 12: SELL -1 SPY JUN 19 20 305/308 CALL @ 0.79
Per contract - Max risk: $221 - Max profit: $79 (35.7% of max risk)
June 18: BUY +1 SPY JUN 19 20 305/308 CALL @ 2.48
Ouch - loss of $169 per contract (76.4% of max risk)
SPY blew way past my short and long calls. It dropped a bit before expiration, so I was able to avoid a full loss.
My verticals above are bearish spreads when I think the market will revert to the mean. But here is an example of a bullish spread:
April 6: SELL -1 SPY DEC 16 22 200/180 CALL @ 4.85
Per contract - Max risk: $1515 - Max profit: $485 (32% of max risk)
May 12: BUY +1 SPY DEC 16 22 200/180 CALL @ 3.95
Profit of $90 per contract (5.9% of max risk)
I sold the vertical a couple of weeks after the bottom, with blood in the street, even some of mine, volatility was still very high. With this trade, I would have lost money if SPY was less than $195 in more than 2 years. Heh, I could even roll the puts if the short put was still ITM in 2 years. The only reason I bought back and closed the trade was that it was using a non-negligible buying power for the next 2 years. That is a long time to earn the full $485 per contract. Have to watch out for opportunity costs too in some other trades.
The hedge:
Here is another construct that I found interesting. Again, taking advantage of the current high volatility. Back in early June, as the market bounced to $320, I wanted another bearish hedge, but this time more efficient than just selling a vertical. I wanted a good protection for my long delta, but that’s not free. And I don’t like to lose money if the hedge is not used, so what to do?
June 5: SELL -1 SPY NOV 20 20 370/380 CALL @ 0.57
Per contract - Max risk: $943 - Max profit: $57 (6% of max risk)
I picked November expiration because I expect that we will still be in the middle of the Coronavirus quagmire. $370 is almost 9% higher than the SPY top. I doubt that the economy will be back full speed by then. Again, I am positive delta, so if SPY somehow reaches $370, I may have to forgo all my overall gains between $370 and $380, but I won’t lose money overall. And then I bought this bearish vertical:
June 5: BUY +1 SPY NOV 20 20 245/250 PUT @ 0.57
Per contract - Max risk: $57 - Max profit: $443 (777% of max risk)
Here, I used the money from my short bearish CALL spread to buy a long bearish PUT spread. As long as SPY does not end above $370 by expiration, my hedge is free. If the market drops significantly my bearish PUT spread will be very profitable.

Once again, it's a long post, so that's all for today.
In the second part of this post, I will show how I used calendars to make some very profitable trades.
I will also explain a more advanced trade that I used to hedge against big losses in a normal market (setup in low volatility), so you can handle more gracefully bear markets ahead of time, and not sell in panic. You can’t use it now, but it could be helpful next time everything is great, and the market is getting overheated a bit.

And finally, remember to always size your trades properly. Do not make one trade create a big loss in your portfolio. Do not overextend! It's way too easy to be over-leveraged with options, take the full risk into consideration.
---
Post 1: Basics: CALL, PUT, exercise, ITM, ATM, OTM
Post 2: Basics: Buying and Selling, the greeks
Post 3a: Simple Strategies
Post 3b: Advanced Strategies
Post 4a: Example of trades (short puts, covered calls, and verticals)
Post 4b: Example of trades (calendars and hedges)
submitted by _WhatchaDoin_ to investing [link] [comments]

Bullish Option Plays for you [Various Industries]

Bullish Option Plays for you [Various Industries]
This post covers 4 Bullish Option Plays across various industries.
Criteria for selecting Bullish Options Plays:
  • 500MM + Market Cap
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM +
  • Uptrend detected
Using these criteria, I have curated a basket of plays. The time frame of these options are 3-6 months out, to avoid Theta burn and maximize ITM potential. The beauty of these plays is that the stock only needs to move up a few % to be profitable, with a long time horizon as a hedge. Close the position within 2-4 months to minimize theta and maximize delta opportunity.
1) Wells Fargo $WFC [BANKING]
Wells just got hammered after an expected poor earnings. This makes it a prime candidate for upward movement.
Bullish Wells Fargo Case:
Wells has a history of prudent underwriting, and we are probably closer than not to a turn in the credit cycle.
Wells Fargo's retail branch structure, advisory network, product offerings, and share in small and medium-size enterprises is difficult to duplicate, ensuring that the company's competitive advantage is maintained.
Wells offers the scale advantages of a money center bank without the risks and volatility associated with extensive capital markets operations.
Wells Fargo Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?
  • 500MM + Market Cap [99B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [46M]
  • Uptrend detected [Bounced off 52Wk Low as support]
  • **Within 10% of 52 Week Low [52 Week Low was $22, WFC is trading at $24.14]
$WFC Overlay with $JPM - The charts are nearly identical
As a big 4 bank, it is impossible for the Fed to allow WFC to go down. They have a good balance sheet, with a P/E ratio of 8.9, down from 11. The lower P/E ratio alone will bring in more long-term investors. If that isn't enough to make you comfortable, WFC offers a whopping 8% dividend yield, making it even more attractive.
This is an attractive investment for both options and stocks.
Let's take a look at options on $WFC, which I found using my unusual options scanner:
Big Bullish bets for October 16 2020, 2 days after their next earnings.
More Bullish Bets on WFC for October 16 2020
These huge bets range from $25 to $30, 3 months down the line. This averages to a $2.5, or 11% increase over the next 3 months. With this information, I propose:
WFC $27.50c Oct 16 2020, trading at $1.30 at time of writing. 24% Probability ITM.
WFC $30c Oct 16 2020, trading $0.79 at time of writing. 16% Probability ITM.
I am currently invested in $WFC stock, and hold the $30 Oct 16 Calls.
2) Twitter $TWTR [Technology]
Twitter is poised to dominate with its huge reach and rumored subscription platform for content creators. Source:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/8/21317266/twitter-subscription-platform-codename-gryphon-job-listing
This is a buy the rumor, sell the news play. I anticipate Twitter announcing this platform in the next 3 months.
Bullish Twitter Case:
Investments in product enhancements and video content could return the monthly active user growth rate to the double digits.
The deal with the NFL to live-stream Thursday night games and provide a platform for interaction and conversation about the games may attract more premium content providers to use the Twitter platform.
Growth in ad revenue per user remains strong at Twitter, more than offsetting the deceleration in user growth.
Twitter Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?
  • 500MM + Market Cap [27B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [30M]
  • Uptrend detected [Strong upward trend since March]
$TWTR Overlay with $FB - the charts are nearly identical
The value that $TWTR and $FB lost due to lack of advertiser revenue has been recouped. The arrival of a subscription service is very bullish, because more and more people are looking to make money online since being laid off by COVID - Twitter's reach makes it incredibly well positioned to solve this problem. Subscriptions made $MSFT and $AAPL cash cows, expect the same for $TWTR.
This is an attractive investment for both options and stocks.
Let's take a look at options on $TWTR, which I found using my unusual options scanner:
Huge Bullish $TWTR bets for Jan 15, 2021
Huge Bullish $TWTR bets for Jan 15, 2021
Huge Bullish $TWTR bets for Jan 15, 2021
These bets were placed BEFORE COVID, and $TWTR is trading at the same price as when these were placed. The strikes range from $40 to $60, 6 months down the line. Taking a Strike of $40, that is 15% OTM of the current price. If they announce the platform within the next 6 months (I predict they will), the stock will explode.
With this information, I propose:
TWTR $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.25 at time of writing. 28% Probability ITM.
TWTR $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.45 at time of writing. 29% Probability ITM.
Buying $40 Jan 15 2020 Calls are only $20 more for an extra month. Look to close these after their earnings next quarter, when they will likely announce the subscription platform.
I am currently invested in $TWTR stock, and hold the $40 Dec 18 Calls.
3) Southwest Airlines $LUV [AIRLINES]
Warren Buffet and COVID have caused investors to turn a nose up at airline stocks. I don't blame them - the uncertainty will affect airlines more than most other industries. That said, don't miss this opportunity to profit off Southwest Airlines, as they have the best balance sheet in the industry.
Bullish Southwest Airlines Case:
Southwest enjoys the strongest brand in the industry thanks to its simple fare prices, free checked bags, and solid customer service. This brand equity will enable it to continue growing faster than peers and support unit revenue.
Mergers among Southwest's competitors will engender pricing power for the airlines, and oil prices will remain low for longer, boosting Southwest's top and bottom lines.
Southwest's aggressive expansion will continue, driving growth at the carrier.
Southwest Airlines Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?
  • 500MM + Market Cap [20B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [15M]
  • Uptrend detected [Strong upward trend since June]
$LUV Overlay with $AAL and $DAL - Delta and American have been hit worse than Southwest for a reason.
$LUV is performing better than its competitors, with higher lows and higher highs when comparing the charts. With the best balance sheet, its exposure to oil has been proven to be overcome since the whole oil futures fiasco. They have been prepped for the second wave and are most likely to weather the storm out of all the airlines.
My options scanner did not find any significant options data for $LUV.
I propose:
LUV $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.05 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
LUV $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.40 at time of writing. 26% Probability ITM.
I am currently invested in $LUV stock.
4) Ericsson $ERIC [Telecommunications Equipment]
With growing tensions between the US and China, it is unlikely Huawei will be allowed to provide 5G infrastructure. The UK just announced that Huawei will NOT be providing 5G infrastructure, so Ericsson is poised to seize a huge market share.
Bullish Ericsson case:
Income sources could diversify as licensing revenue from 5G patents may grow through applications outside of Ericsson's handset manufacturer agreements.
5G may afford Ericsson a longer spending cycle and higher equipment demand than previous wireless generations. Additionally, 5G should create more use cases for Ericsson's software and services within Internet of Things device networks.
Ericsson's turnaround measures are happening at an opportune time. Management's focused strategy should expand operating margins while 5G infrastructure spending increases top-line results.
Ericsson Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?
  • 500MM + Market Cap [29B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [13M]
  • Uptrend detected [Strong upward trend since March, even stronger after UK Huawei announcement]
$ERIC Overlay with $NOK - Both stocks are strongly trending upward, with almost 100% gains since march.
$ERIC is poised to bank on 5G since Huawei is being punished in retaliation to Chinese handling of Hong Kong. Expect more growth as infrastructure expands and Apple announces their 5G line this fall. Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-iphone-12-rumors-5g-release-camera-specs-2019-6
My options scanner did not find any significant options data for $ERIC.
I propose:
ERIC $11 Nov 20 2020, trading at $0.50 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
I am no longer invested in $ERIC stock - truly kicking myself for selling, because I had a great cost basis a year ago. Regardless, I am picking up these calls.
Conclusion
Based on my research, $WFC, $TWTR, $LUV, and $ERIC are poised for big gains over the next 2 quarters. All the plays have a 25% chance of being ITM, but do not need to be ITM to be extremely profitable.
TL,DR:
WFC $27.50c Oct 16 2020, trading at $1.30 at time of writing. 24% Probability ITM.
WFC $30c Oct 16 2020, trading $0.79 at time of writing. 16% Probability ITM.
TWTR $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.25 at time of writing. 28% Probability ITM.
TWTR $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.45 at time of writing. 29% Probability ITM.
LUV $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.05 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
LUV $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.40 at time of writing. 26% Probability ITM.
ERIC $11 Nov 20 2020, trading at $0.50 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
submitted by iKalculated to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

S&P 1700 within 6 Months


This is a new post after some interest in a comment why I believed the S&P is going to 1700.
Update 3: I am going to limit my answers in the comments guys; as the post becomes more popular it is becoming more diluted with snark etc. I don't expect anyone to follow my opinions; I just want to share one aspect of why I am making the trades I am. I maybe wrong. Random walk and all that..
Original Disclaimer: This is based on historical precedence and we are in unprecedented times but, with history as our guide a strong argument can be made for the S&P to decline to a level that is currently inconceivable. I have disclosed all my positions near the bottom.
Update 1: Slightly long; happy to be challenged in the comments, it is late in the UK (2am) so may tidy it up and add more references and charts tomorrow. Update 2: Have expanded the post to answer as many comments and requests for references wherever possible and tagged in the requestors.

Intro: Are we in a recession?

If you believe so, or that we are heading into a recession then there are four things needed to support a genuine rally out of a recession

We are missing 2 out of those 4 criteria; the overwhelming monetary and fiscal policy (world-records) are compensating for lack of positive indicators and volatile and bullish pricing.

What do you mean by pricing?

It can be argued that the current price of stocks is not discounting for the acute and likely chronic harm to consumer sentiment and spending power. For example; the UK clothing retailer Next Group closed their bricks and mortar stores (share price increased 4%) then they cancelled all online shopping (share price increased 3%) and finally they cancelled all orders with their supply chain (shares leapt 12.8% during the rally.) There is the massive amount of second, third and fourth order effects that this one company does to the UK economy (and Turkish factories). Suppliers, shipping, design, marketing etc all cancelled and the staff furloughed.
This is one example but the indexes are currently full of similar examples and some analysts are ringing the alarm bells.

Lazard Asset Management are concerned that the pandemic “will persist longer than many investors suspect and that the economic damage will be deeper and potentially longer-lasting”.
Reddit is quick to mention that stonks only go up but there is some truth to that sentiment at present since any negative factors are dismissed as being priced in and all positive factors are heralded as a cause for stocks to rally. If priced in was accurate then we would not see record-beating market rallies back to back. 10% volatility swings over 48 hours is the very definition of not priced in.
There is evidence to suggest that, well, the bullish sentiment is wrong and mainly because it is retail investors being taken for a ride whilst funds re-balance and offload.
Retail traders "buying the dips" is normally a contrarian signal, meaning that it's time to sell. This section is for u/lntoIerant in response to a comment.

Edit to answer some comments about this portion thus far.

Do retail investors move the market?
Are retail investors buying in greater volumes?
Are retail investors dumb money?

What does this have to do with the S&P dividend and the EPS?


Major indexes are comprised of stocks that pay handsome dividends; normally 2% yield a year. The companies have reached their limit of growth (HSBC haven't discovered 5 million new customers and Shell are not finding new fossil fuels) so investors hold the stock for income-seeking reasons.
The FTSE 100 was priced in to generate £89 billion in dividends for 2019 and £90 billion+ in 2020. That has largely collapsed.
The only companies that pay dividends are those taking on debt to do so like Shell. And they have; a 10Bn credit line to maintain dividends. The Bank of Englandhad to slap 5 UK banks from issuing dividends at this time. That means that their primary valuations as income-generating stocks are questionable...
...especially since the dividends are not expected to return to the 2020 levels for another 10 years now. Edit to add: This portion is taken from the market report by BNY Mellon. You can see the chart here. The analyst is John Velis of BNY. Thanks to u/flash_aaaah_ahhhhh for prompting me.

“By 2021, the market expects dividends per share for the S&P 500 to be down to under $38 per share (a staggering 41 per cent drop from recent highs of approximately $63 per share) and then to start slowly rising again. Going out 10 years to 2030, the expectation is that dividends will just about recover to pre-Covid-19 levels.”

Main body: Onto the S&P

In 2021 the market expects the dividends per share for the S&P to be reduced to $38 per share. That is priced in and common knowledge.
That is a 41% drop from the recent highs of $63 a share and seems alarming for income seeking investors since we are not expected to recover to those prices for 8-10 years. Source.
But DataTrek have noted that we are still currently trading at 21X the trailing 10 year earnings of $122 a share.
Dividends per share normally don't fall as far as earnings per share. But they are inverted at present.
For the S&P to be trading at 2,650 level (or even higher) it means the market does not believe the pandemic or recession will have any long-term damage. That puts us squarely at odds with items 3 and 4 in our list of factors needed to exit a bear market.

Talk to me about 2008!

Thanks to u/mister_woody for asking for more data.

In other recessions, including 2008, the dividend price per share drops approximately 12-15% but the earnings per share drop by considerably more; as much as 85%.
That means that in 2008 financial crisis and subsequent bear market; the dividends per share dropped by a lower percentage amount than the total index value drop.
You can see that in this chart here.

Right now, we have the reverse. Dividend share drop in this market is 41% (which is chilling) and market drop was approximately only 30% and rallying heavily back to the mid-20's only. That makes no financial sense unless the assets were being propped up by buyers...

If the S&P follows the same playbook at 2008-9, then we would expect to see levels of around 1400 at the bottom but that seems extremely bearish expecting that this crisis is worse than 2008.
If previous indications hold true, then we would expect the S&P to drop by approximately 50-60%ish at the true bottom to reflect the 41% decrease in expected shares plus additional discounts and negative market sentiment.
In reality, we are probably likely to pull back to between 13X and 15X trailing average which puts the S&P between 1600 (low side) and 1800 (high side).

You are putting a lot of faith in a re-run of the 2008 crisis

I am. No doubt about it. After October 2008, stocks fell for another four months, piling up 40% of losses before the recently ended bull market began in March 2009.

New market indicators

Since I wrote this post, the DJIA was up over 4% and closed down on the day.
Thank you to theTwitter feed of Jim Bianco for this: Since 1925 (95 yrs!), up more than 4% and closing down on the day has happened only one other time ... Oct 14, 2008 (Tsy Sec Hank Paulson forced the banks to take TARP money). The S&P 500 was up 3.5% at the high and closed down on the day. Since April 1982 (daily H,L,C began) has happened three other times...Oct 3, 08, Oct 14, 08, and Oct 17, 08.
This mkt continues to trade like Oct 08. It was six months and another 25% down before the low.
Bezinga are also playing up the 2008 similarities.

Why is bullish sentiment so wrong?

The negative reports are so wildly negative that the almost defy belief. We are dealing with insane numbers way beyond our traditional frame of reasoning. This is topped only by the insanity of the scale of quantitative easing. Less than a year ago, a small movement in the non-farm payrolls would lead to a 2-3% move in the markets; now we are hitting 700K jobs lost, a truly ugly number and the market rallies hugely. Future economic students will study this to try and understand what was happening.
In the space of weeks the majority of the Western economies have swung to being effectively state-sponsored, centralised economies and no one really knows how to unwind these positions.
It is impossible to reconcile being a bull with a centralised state economy and blue-chip stocks that refuse to pay dividends but the share price remains at the same levels as when they paid a 2% yield.
The UK forecast is for the deepest contraction since 1900. Business surveys have shown activity crashing faster in March than during the financial crisis. The Office for National Statistics has published experimental research on the impact of Covid-19 on the economy.

With entire swaths of the economy having shut down “traditional forecasting methods become irrelevant”, warned Chiara Zangarelli, economist at investment bank Nomura.
Michelle Girard, economist at NatWest, said that while there was huge uncertainty about the precise magnitude of the contraction in gross domestic product in the second quarter, “there is little doubt that it will be off the scale”
That is not a bullish sentiment. It means markets are acting irrationally since fundamentals are being dismissed as priced-in. In reality; nothing is priced in.

Disclosure


Spreads
Equities
Currency

Edit to add: So, your entire thesis is totally destroyed if companies keep paying dividends?

Yes.
In a nutshell.
But something else will be destroyed; the western taxpayer and future growth.

CEO said 'every pound we receive [in rates relief] will be invested in ensuring Tesco is able to support British shoppers...' That is tax payers paying a subsidy to a free-market company for the ability to shop...and also...
Mr Lewis said that the needs of savers and pension funds also needed to be considered in the debate around dividends. “We’ve thought long and hard about our responsibilities here . . . we are in a strong position to pay out for the benefit of those people

Edit to add: What about the FED and stimulus


u/tauriel81 and u/aliveintucson325 and u/100PERCENTYOLO_VEQT
OK - to truly test my own assumptions; here is my argument AGAINST my position.
The Fed have not quite printed money as Reddit loves to meme. They have issued liquidity and central banks worldwide have allowed banks to relax their requirement to hold reserves of cash. That injects money into the business world by allowing lending and borrowing to continue. It also reduces theoretical risk since the models are back within tolerance.
When the time comes they will remove the credits gradually without causing hyperinflation. They do this by paying banks not to lend back into the system by holding a % of their assets at the Federal Reserve. So they pay the banks but the banks keep the deposit at the Fed and don't pass on the liquidity to potential borrowers..gradually and sustainably.
https://www.aier.org/article/powells-new-monetary-regime/
That means the borrower of the future (home purchasers, entreprenuers etc) will have very few credit facilities available so RIP to the long-term economic growth.
We also have unprecedented government support for citizens. The largest social security welfare plan since WW2, especially in Europe.
If you believe that the Western economies can weather this storm using the bridging devices by central banks then it pays to dollar cost average into the market and keep buying the dips as a retail investor.
Lots of buoyant news from European nations and China about the slowing pandemic is overwhelming the negative leading and lagging economic indicators about economic data.
If you believe the economy can return to normal within 36 months, then it pay to be bullish and invest.
If you are day-trading, swing-trading or short-term options trading then the overwhelming market moves are likely to crush people as the system flexes under lots of volatility. You are also likely prioritising the negative news and technical analysis in your filter bubble and de-prioritising the positive news particularly when that news is fiscal or monetary policy since those things are dry, boring and incomprehensible half the time.
So you miss Fed backstops critical bankingi and instead hear UK Prime Minister in intensive care.
If you want to know what is going on...

Decide where you making a prediction. Plan your trade, trade your plan.
How do the FED take money back out of the economy?
They FED purchase the security initially to then sell it back to the asset-holder later. So the balance of credit-deficit merely swaps but by paying a small premium on the excesses that they hold, they can cushion the inflation or deflation of the currency.
So, they effectively give the bank liquidity and then remove that liquidity later by passing the asset back...but also provide a small premium to cushion the blow; 50% of the premium is then held on Federal Reserve books so that the market is not flooded with new money.
The FED previously reduced their balance sheet from $4.4 trillion to $3.7 trillion but it remains to be seen if they can unwind a position of this size.

TL:DR



submitted by DongusMcLongus to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Top options trading mistakes that you should not make

This is my post on wsbelite. Repost here for all.
IMO, trading options have similarities to playing poker and in order to be successful in the long run you need to be disciplined and refrain from making common mistakes. I’m going to list common mistakes and some tips here. Please suggest more. Hope we all lose less tendies!
  1. Refrain to trade low volume options . These contracts will have really wild bid/ask spread, or really low volume, which reduces your chance to make profit significantly. For example how can you win if you trade $ROPE 100c when the bid ask spread is $69/$96 per contract?
  2. Refrain to trade very low price options (e.g 1-10 cents) because your broker commissions will eat up a significant amount of the transactions. Think how much commissions you have to pay to buy 10000 contracts of 0.01 $ROPE 1000c which costs $10000 of premium.
  3. Refrain to buy near-dated far OTM options, because this is almost a sure way to burn your money. Even worse, even if you guess the direction right, you may still have a substantial loss. Think $PEI 500% OTM 2DTE. Btw $PEI is a great stock to own. Example: on 04/13 you bought SPY 496c 04/17 when SPY=280. On 04/14 SPY rises to 285. Guess how much you made on your call options?
  4. Know when to select OTM vs ITM options: in general: OTM is higher risk/higher return. Have some sense of OTM price movement - even when you guess the direction right, far OTM options won’t make you money because of low delta. ITM is more expensive. ATM is typically a safe choice if you just want to make a directional bet.
  5. Know theta-crush. Your options will lose time-value every day, so refrain from buying short-dated options unless you know what you're doing.
  6. Know the effects of IV (VIX for SPY) on options price. Sometimes even when you guess the direction rights, you may lose money because of VIX movements. Know how to hedge for VIX movement.
  7. Refrain from using market orders when possible: limit orders will give you the price you want.
  8. Understand the margin impact of different options strategies.
  9. Understand the impact of your broker commissions.
  10. Bank management: never YOLO your entire portfolio into one position, because if you lose, there’s 0% chance to make it back. Learn http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/basic/bankroll-management/. If you want to get in a large (50K+) position, average in/out may be a good idea.
  11. Don't open too many positions unless you're a bot. It's hard to manage manually and easy to make mistakes.
  12. (Mostly) don't follow autist DDs that you can't explain.
  13. Learn the market hours!
  14. Options strategies can be complex to visualized. Use your broker's performance profile tool to understand the performance implications before making a trade.
Some risky options strategies that you should only do when you know what you’re doing
Less risky options strategies:
  1. Covered calls: very low risk. You hold shares, and sell OTM calls to cover them and collect the premium.
  2. Cash secured puts: sell puts but you have cash to cover it. This is good when you’re willing to buy the shares if it drops, otherwise you collect the premium.
  3. Diagonal: Simultaneously entering into a long and short position in two options of the same type (two call options or two put options) but with different strike prices and different expiration dates. Typically these structures are on a 1 x 1 ratio. This is less risky and can hedge you against IV as well. For example if you bearish on USO, buy a 4p 05/15 and sell a 3.5p 04/24, that way if USO moves upward on the week ending 04/24 you’ll collect the near-dated premium.
  4. Learn how to sell options. Every mistake you made as an option buyer is probably a chance for you to profit as an option-seller.
Practical tips
  1. Use tools to scan top volume options. https://www.barchart.com/options/volume-leaders . This can give you some confirmation.
  2. Use tools to scan unusual activity options. https://www.barchart.com/options/unusual-activity Try to think why people are making that trade. Your broker also has tools to scan these.
  3. Take advantage of L2 flow data if your broker provides.
  4. Sometime when you can't make a long-term directional bet, it may be profitable to day-trade or swing-trade (hold your positions for 1-3 days).
  5. Know common ETFs:
Tips to improve
Learn more about economics and business to improve your common sense.
Advanced topics: understand how MM works, gamma hedging, dark pool indicators, probably understand some TAs such as RSI.
Day trade dynamics: power hours.
Things to debate
  1. Should you use stop-loss orders or not?
  2. When to buy FDs and how much should you spend on FDs?
  3. What is the impact of the underlying delisted on put options? As example OILU closed on 03/29 https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved/MC3724/20200316/SUP_421079.PDF
submitted by tinkerprophet to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Exos Heroes: My take as a day one player.

Did a detailed post on King's Raid the other day and thought I'd do the same for Exos since I've been playing since day one. I'll break down the game into parts and mechanics and then give a summary at the end.
Combat: I had not tried to get into a turn-based game since I stopped playing FF games a while back, so color me surprised when I actually enjoyed the combat this game offers. There's actually a lot of strategy that goes into how you clear story zones and later on the daily areas unless you're just crazy geared with OP units. You need to focus enemies to break their elemental Guardian Stones, which will disable them for anywhere from 5 to 10 rounds of combat and make them take double damage. Sometimes it's worthwhile to take weaker units with AoE or DoT abilities to help break enemies faster even if they don't deal a lot of damage.
There's also interesting synergy with certain units. For instance, one of the strongest damage dealers in the game gives a passive called Tranquil that will allow all units in your part to survive one otherwise-fatal attack. It also allows one other specific main unit and some weaker sub units to break Guardian Stones of enemies regardless of the element type. Certain passives like this are quite a bonus, but they're pretty limited and sadly mostly attached to a very narrow selection of meta units. It would be great if they expand this system better in the future.
Another aspect of combat that causes you to plan what you're doing is mana gain. For instance, if you attack a healer, tank, or magic user you will feed them mana, meaning they can carry off stronger attacks or heals sooner. This means you don't want to level attacks on them unless you can kill them sooner rather than later. There's also the ability to play enemies against themselves by utilizing passives. For instance, some enemies and hero units have a retaliate ability that will hit back anytime they're hit. You need to be careful of this when you attack certain enemies, but you can also use it to make them attack you back and trigger your hero's retaliation, many of which have effects like stunning the enemy for the next few turns.
All and all the combat is relatively deep for being turn-based, and this doesn't even take into account things like how all units also passively gain mana based on their main element.
Story: Overall, it's pretty fun. There are a lot of interwoven elements that lead to it winding all across the map. Add to that there being voice acting available in multiple languages and it's pretty easy to get into it. There are some standard tropes, but mostly they don't go over the top. There are parts of the plot that will have you guessing. There are parts that you'll see coming but will remain enjoyable. My only negative would be that late in the game there are too many zones where the story is literally "we're being surrounded, we have to break through" for multiple fights in a row. I think they could have handled that a bit more cleanly. I'd give it an 8/10.
The Heroes: What would a hero collector be without its heroes? Not much. Exos delivers a lot of unique characters. A calligrapher who summons dragons with his writing; a bunch of treasure hunting rats and mice; diplomatic hamsters; a draconic assassin; run-of-the-mill soldiers and casters; arrogant aristocrats and powerful generals; wizards and sorceresses; Steampunk shooters; reluctant royalty who'd rather be out fighting; a dog in a Fisher-Price flying car. I think most people would be hard-pressed to not find at least a few characters to enjoy. Add to that all of them having voiced attacks and one-liners along with unique skills and the combat won't bore you. It continues to be enjoyable watching it even after a few weeks of playing.
Character Collection: This may be the first stay or go moment for a lot of players. To start, I will say this game has the best looking summon out there. It feels like you're really getting a hold of someone awesome when you see the animation play through and robes change color to indicate you've pulled a more powerful unit.
The good news is that from the start of the game you have a list of relatively powerful characters to choose from, and you can pull as many times as you like until you get the one you want. The bad news is you must pull until you get the one you want, meaning there's even RNG in trying to get to your first selected unit before you get into the game.
The next issue with this is that not only do certain characters offer more fun dynamics in terms of playing, but they also offer a lot more power than others both in PvE and PvP. If you don't pull meta units you can be weeks behind players who did. They'll sail through the story more easily, they'll do better in PvP, and they'll more easily be able to farm the end game "raids" and daily areas, in turn earning more currency faster and being able to get more return for their time while spending much less of it. I'm not even discussing spending vs not.
Two F2P players who have different results with the initial pulls on a banner will be miles apart in terms of how well they progress. In all seriousness some players who pick up the game a few weeks from now when another good banner comes up and have better lucky may shoot ahead of someone who's been playing and just had atrocious luck.
The best part is that for some reason they've decided to release a new hero every week for one week, meaning that you can't even earn enough currency from the monthly card to save for a decent number of pulls before each new character arrives. I'll talk more about how much each hero costs below, but if you want to go after every one of them on release you're looking at thousands of dollars.
The Farming/End Game: This is where the game can move from fun into a bit of a chore. If you want to continue gearing you'll need to do daily areas called Sanctums. At the highest level they offer currency that allows you to pull for the best gear in the game as well as RNG chances for a very, very low drop rate mat to finish maxing out characters. This is another place where pulls come into play. On top of meta characters helping to clear these zones faster, you also need a number of lower 3 and 4* units to enter the zones. If you haven't pulled them, you simply can't enter these zones, meaning you'll miss certain days of farming every week until you get them.
Now, they do offer a token system where you can buy them, and you get the currency for them daily. So what's the catch? You can only pull 5 shards of each of those heroes at a time and it takes 50 of them to forge the hero. 5 at a time isn't so bad, right? Time gating is just standard gaming practice these days. Ah, but I forgot to mention that which shards are in the shop rotates ever HOUR, so maybe the character you needed was up an hour ago and you missed it. Maybe it's up right now but you're not in game to buy it. Sucks to be you. This is one item they really, really did a poor job of designing.
Raids are silliness. There are two different bosses you farm daily if you want to get everything you can. Both of them you leave on auto and let your phone run anywhere from 5 minutes to an hour depending on how strong your characters are. For the main daily dragon raid you cannot leave until it completes. There's no pausing, there's no exiting to restart if your team was a bad composition or if you have the right passives to survive but not enough DPS or the right elements to break and clear quickly. From something I read originally they were at least team efforts, but now you just throw your characters at it and let your phone run.
And no, you can't do anything else on your phone or emulator while it's running. It has to be open to the game for it to progress. Luckily some phones have power saving an will power the screen down and with emulators you can always do something in another instance or mess around online or whatever else, but this is just bad, bad design.
Not going to get into the problems of moving gear around as another post covered that the other day, but costing premium currency to remove it is just stupid. I will discuss that as you get further into things the rates to enhance become bad and eventually drop to 1% with no failstack system. It's one of those throwbacks to something like Lineage II where you have to hate yourself a little to keep messing with it.
Labyrinth: floor after floor of two enemy zones and a boss at the end. You will need units of all kinds to clear all the way, and on some bosses even with all the meta characters you're looking at 10 minutes of leaving your phone on auto battle to clear. This zone is the equivalent to Abyss/Tower Climbs in many other games, but it is the worst of anything I've played. Whoever designed it is literally a sadist. You'd better clear it, though, because it's the source of about 1/3rd of the monthly in game currency you can earn.
The Interfaces: Ridiculously clean designs to the enhancing, leveling, awakening, and other systems. It looks like something out of a very posh witch/wizards scrying room. The animations are actually enjoyable to watch. They put in some time and effort to make this look great. Probably the best I've seen anywhere, mobile or otherwise.
The Monetization: This one earns an F from me. I play HI3, so I'm used to poor value per dollar spent if you don't catch the offers that come with new character releases or farm regularly while getting daily card currency, but this tops HI3 by miles. $90 gets you 11k crystals; 10k crystals get you 4000 Xes on your first purchase then only 2000 crystals after that initial bonus. The only decent value like in HI3 is to buy the monthly pack and log on every day, but that does nothing to help a new players.
If you log on tomorrow and decide you want the current up rate character it will cost you as much as 19,600 Xes, which is 28 11 pulls in the gacha. This does not account for potential achievements you might get or login rewards over a few days, but even those won't be enough to help if RNG doesn't go your way. If you have a lot of time to play and earn Xes but still have poor pulls, you're still looking at having to drop around $400 if it goes badly.
Some say the game is generous, but it really isn't unless you live in the game. If you're a casual player who spends a little to support the game by buying monthly cards you really won't be earning anywhere near the full 11k or so Xes that can be earned monthly by playing. Players who grind hard will be earning enough to pull on the up rate or more long-term String of Creation banners to guarantee the characters they want, but that's 3 months of farming per character. If you have bad RNG and don't get whom you want from the start you will either have to be very patient or pull out your wallet, and that's annoying when you're talking about a game where hero collection is the purpose of playing.
The dollar-to-in-game-currency rate is one of the worst I've seen, and again, having come from HI3 I'm sad to know I've now experienced something even more cash grabby than it has been. I just jumped into King's Raid the other day because of it's new event and the overall system is so good that I've had no problem spending. I became an unintentional whale in HI3 because I enjoyed it so much and at least the deals were often real deals. The "Hot Deals" in this game are hot garbage whale bait and it's sad that a game offers so little value at launch.
The best rates for the focused units in the top banners are 0.500%; to give perspective, the aforementioned HI3 with it's too high monetization offers rates of 1.5% and the guarantee comes at 10 multis rather than 28, and you can pull 1 at a time and get the same value with a guarantee A-rank and possibility of the S-rank on every 10th single pull, where as Exos only offers a guaranteed 4* minimum unit if you do 11 character multis. With that, you can't conserve your currency by pulling one at a time and get the bonus.
Graphics/Performance: This is where the game stands out. They've gone all in on presenting something polished here. There's little that competes with it and I think a lot of games in the future will work to offer this level of graphical fidelity on mobile. The make the most out of what can be done, and aside from needing some better anti-aliasing and post processing to take it to really clean things up there's not much room for improvement. I've yet to see anyone complain about the graphic quality. On top of that, my phone almost never gets hot while playing. There are times I could almost cook an egg on it when I'm playing some other titles.
TLDR, The Verdict: for the first major multi-region launch from OOZOO/LINE GAMES, Exos Heroes offers a lot of promise. I'm looking forward to new chapters and more depth in terms of content outside of story as well as what I'm sure will be super interesting heroes and villains to collect. The daily grind, however, has burned me out. Not only is auto battling super slow because of how maps and bosses are designed, but you'll have to leave your phone running while it's going on. You also can't auto clear the top zones unless you have both meta and low-tier but zone-required units leveled and geared. Add that to absolutely shitty monetization and I can't recommend the game for more than casual play at the moment. Your best bet is to roll and reroll while one of the best banners is up and then play casually from there after you get the characters you're after.
I feel badly that a game with such potential has launched with so much focus on raking in dollars rather than celebrating the release and making players feel valued. YMMV, but this isn't a game to lose too much time in unless you're really into grinding or like ranking in PvP and are willing to spend the money to get there.
I'll close with this link from probably the biggest whale in NA explaining the best dollar values in the game and how he spent to get to the #1 spot in PvP. His channel is surprisingly chill, and it's interesting hearing thoughts from someone who is willing to drop the dollars to see what they get you no matter what. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZDm5TkHiQU
Edit: video of him whaling out with $200 in pulls and getting... nothing.
submitted by True_Naeblis to gachagaming [link] [comments]

Don't buy a gun before reading this OR autosear's advice and thread is excellent and here's why it's a lot of it is not relevant in 2020

For the uninitiated. This week, autosear did a really good job with this thread.
I read through it and I didn't see anything patently wrong or objectionable so for once - I decided to shut my big yap.
And then I realized that although the advice is good - it is a bit one dimensional. It lacks context to what's happening in the business today.
I'll fill in some blanks for those who have not been here for a while. I am a retailer of firearms that sells everything that autosear has discussed and then some. I've got over a decade of watching people make all the mistakes so I didn't have to. On top of being in the retail side, I've sold stuff at gun shows, I regularly teach classes, I've lectured on gun laws and done expert witness work, and I've even written a ton on firearm legal issues and I've been published.
The reason I'm saying this is so that I can set this up.
I can see the future of the firearm industry because I can see it's past.
Using very broad math, the global contagion strangling and paralyzing the united states started in the first quarter of this year. During tax refund season, lots of people were getting (their) money back from the IRS and spending it on guns they wanted.
That was depleting inventory very rapidly in February. Most of the really choice stuff was gone. Now, I'm not a superstitious guy but I had an interesting first quarter.
As some of y'all know, I have a nephew in boston. I've been suffering from deprivation of peekaboo with my nephew (yes, this is a real thing) and I went to see him just as the shit hit the fan in Italy. When I boarded the plan to LaGuardia, the flight was full. Three days later when I flew home, there were 15 people on the plane and 5 of them were crew. Things got weird in a hurry.
The next gun show I did was on the weekend before the wheels came off the wagon.
Anyone remember Shakespeare?
"Beware the Ides of March!" So sayeth the Soothsayer.
Yeah.
I did seventeen guns that weekend at the show, an all time record. Everyone wearing masks and still touching stuff and germing stuff up. I saw the dealer across the aisle from me sell fifty guns in one day. At at $20 markup, he made bank. In theory. I asked one guy walking out with 1000 rds of XM193 ammo what the price was.
He told me it was the last case in the show - he paid $400 for it and was happy to get it!
I got on my tablet and checked. Every wholesaler was sold out of ammo.
We've seen this happen before. Everyone runs out, prices go up, and socialists that claim they are capitalists go on the internet and complain about cheaper than dirt price gouging. We call this "the time after that butthead shot up (blank)" and "election years".
The cyclical nature and the regularity of this is astonishing.
Anyways, taking into account NICS volumes and factoring in NICS-exempt transactions and the dozen-ish POC contact states, my math puts us at approximately 3 million guns sold in the month of March, cf. about 300 million americans and we can pretty easily say that one or two percent of the country decided to buy guns.
And they cleared out every retailer, every wholesaler, of every firearm on autosear's list and then some. Now, the thing to keep in mind here is this is one or two percent OF THE NATION taking 80-90% of the available to sell product home. That's one or two percent, and I told all my customers that asked about the state of the industry the same thing.
"What happens when that number becomes four or five percent? Or ten percent?"
Everyone just shook their head and said "this too shall pass" as they waited patiently for ammo and their Sig 365 magazine coupon to be redeemed.
For those who don't buy guns, there's something you should know. We have a long tail supply chain. Product does not get built, restocked and distributed that quickly. Not guns, not ammo, not magazines, not anything of high demand and low supply. Like Bounty paper towels and Charmin Ultra Strong.
So you have all of March, with 1-2% of the country buying anything they can get their hands on.
Same for April.
Same for May.
And then some dumbass cops do something stupid in Minneapolis and the entire country becomes outraged at the end of May.
Lacking a common enemy for the past 4 months, we can't fight a virus but we can fight the police - the entire country starts marching in protest. Some of them peaceful, others looking to embrace the true roots of this country and terrorize the ruling class and damage property until they are properly represented.
Hey, if it worked with those cases of tea in boston harbor - it'll work now, right?
That one or two percent of the country buying guns because they're afraid of the economy and crime going up? Their purchase has just been validated with massive civil unrest!
Fear begets fear.
Now, we've got even more people buying guns and ammo in a market where most stock is depleted. How do you think that's going to go?
Allow me to elaborate on the problem. I'm going to let Brad Pitt (he's SO dreamy) fill in for me.
Right now, it's taking 6-18 hours on that "instant" background check due to volume.
We're seeing massive delays in everyone trying to buy firearms. You're dealing with long lines, impatient people and this is on top of the fear of germs.
Everything autosear said about firearm selections and reccomendations are good advice.
Except everything on that list is probably going to be out of stock.
To get what you want, you're going to have to A: Wait or B: Get creative
Lots of people are buying stuff online - from vendors that are backed up and 3 weeks behind on shipping. And they're not answering their phone.
Would you order pizza from a place that didn't answer their phone? Or when they did answer said "We have no idea when your pizza will be delivered, but we'll get to it eventually?"
Probably not.
But that's the state the industry is operating in right now.
Ammo is impossible to get for smaller retailers, if you have the ability to buy some online - thats' your best bet. You want to be the guy buying 9mm by the box of 50 for $25 at the pawnshop that's always had it for $25 a box for the past ten years - be my guest. It's not the most intelligent way to do things.
We're seeing lots of people who aren't doing any research, comparison shopping or putting any effort into things whatsoever buying guns. Ruger LCP for $500? SOLD! Taurus TCP for $399? SPECIAL OF THE DAY! 50 rd box of 380 for $45? Can I take two at that price?
Impatience has a cost. That cost manifests in the fear premium that's being built into every firearm and box of ammo being sold.
"But FC, what can I do to fight the scourge of gun dealers selling 5.56 ammo for $17/20rd box and price gouging everyone?"
FC: How much 5.56 ammo do you have?
"About 5,000 rds"
FC: Go sell half of it at $325/thousand
"Why would I do that? I can get more than that!"
FC: More than $325? Isn't that price gouging?
(shockedpikachu)
The biggest driver of firearm sales is "it's in stock and you can take it home today" - and lots of people are falling into that trap. No, sorry. All our Glock 19's are out of stock.
Salesman: "But this Taurus G2C is the same as a glock and made in the same factory in austria! It's just as good and cheaper! and you can take it home today."
Unwitting customer: Sold
Repeat as necessary.
This is the operating environment we are in. It's going to be months if not YEARS for wholesalers and retailers to bulk back up on product.
Don't get pushed around by flashy or ignorant salespeople.
Do your homework and some research before you go into buy.
Be aware that it is entirely possible for you to go in, pay money and not get a gun for days/weeks/months due to state/federal background check database contention.
Know that even if your retailer does NOT have what you want in stock, even if it's at a vendor's warehouse in stock - it can be 3-4 days to 3-4 weeks BEFORE THAT ORDER PICKS AND SHIPS. So, if you're not in a hurry - you can get better selection.
Now that autosear covered the "how" now you know the background and the context.
I may be around if you have any questions. This week has been abysmally stupid.
submitted by FCattheKFC to guns [link] [comments]

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the War Thunder Economy

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the War Thunder Economy
(not really) (rant incoming)
Hello there, let me introduce myself first. You can skip that part, whatever. Basically, I'm good at Air SB.
I'm a fan of aviasim games for more than 10 years, I play War Thunder from the very beginning (from Wings of Prey lol), participated in LAN and on-line tournaments and won some prizes, like the GTX970 I still use today. I consider myself above average, and some years ago (like, in 2015) I was one of the best russian sim players. I was a flight model tester (like alpha tester, but to test FM). Even now its a rare event to meet a player who clearly outclasses me, though there are many good players, of course. To make myself clear, this little bit of bragging was not entirely to stroke my ego, but to show you that my opinion about current state of thing is weighed and worth reading.
So the first point a wanted to make:
Economy in AirSim horribly, unfairly broken.
Bear with me for a moment. I know what grind is real, I almost have M1A2 now and that was not a good gaming experience by all means, but I'm not a good tanker, I often die like an idiot. M1A1 with stock HEAT almost broken me. Now, I have to grind SL on tanks just to afford to buy new plane. I have to remind you, that I can do like 20 kills to 0 deaths in EC without much pain (excluding some accidents and lucky shots). I'll list all of my results from yesterday. Yep, I have premium:
  1. 67k SL, 45k RP
  2. 75k SL, 39k RP
  3. 48k SL, 48k RP
  4. 12k SL, 12k RP
I was flying casually, not tearing my ass apart, slowly unlocking Mig-21MF on tier 5 germans. But you can see the problem, right? I need 390k to unlock Mig-21, and I will do it with relative ease, but to earn 1.3mil SL to unlock it and put it in slot I will have to grind really hard.
Now, if it is hard for me, how hard it is for average player? I bet it is FUCKING HORRIBLE. I dont even want to begin to imagine how it must feel, to understand that even with premium account, flying premium vehicles, you can't even hope to unlock anything above tier 5 without mindboggling amount of grind. And dont even get me started on spading top tier planes to get A2A rockets, thats a joke.
Another problem is that the rate at which I earn SL and RP feels to be even lower in SB than in AB. That was not always the case; I remember well when I was able to make like 500k SL in one session (before EC), and even in EC, but now it is almost impossible, even when flying whole EC session with premium and premium vehicles you hardly will gain more than 300-400k SL. I am talking about fighters, not bombers, mind you. I can earn like 100k SL in Tank AB for like 5-10 minutes, but I earn even less for full hour or more in SB.
My friends often complain that even with premium they can't even break even on tier 5-6, and they are not bad players by all means. That seems completely unfair, especially when I, a bad tanker, can earn kinda okay at tier 6 tanks in AB.
That was one of the good EC's I did a week ago, 0 deaths, 18 kills. 200k SL? Really?
Why am I writing this? Well, I actually quite like the game in itself. It was good enough, its getting gradually better, and I still hope for the best. And I want people to play my favourite game mode, to enjoy it, to playerbase (I just mistyped it as a "payerbase" and lol'd) to grow. It pains me to see that my favourite playmode is slowly dying (for a long time now). Whats the point of learning hardcore gamemode if you'll just suck horrible and never will be able to unlock anything? I hope we can get some attention of the dev team, maybe we'll see some changes in the future.
I wanted to continue, but I'll leave balance and gameplay for another time.
submitted by Fedduk to Warthunder [link] [comments]

How To Leverage Long Blog Posts To Build Your Brand

You guys were not joking with the amount of shit posts that are ending up on this sub lately.
So, in order to change that, I thought I would throw out something that I have done in the past and am still seeing success with today.
Leveraging your blog posts/articles to build a BRAND.
I did it, you did it, almost everyone does it. They get started, they crank out some content, and they expect money to come in. You can make a great living doing this, but you will find it almost impossible to hit the "next level" unless you focus on building a brand. You see the rare comment here of people hitting 20, 30, 50k+ per month....I would bet almost anything their site is a brand that people actually CARE about.
In order to actually get there, you have to create value, have a strategy and create trust with your audience. But how the hell do you create value and trust with an audience that does not yet exist?
One of those ways is utilizing a platform that people already trust: Amazon.
The basic idea before we get into the actual guide is twofold.
1: You are going to take your longest article or articles, and turn them into an ebook. You will create a coveinterior and publish this on Amazon via the KDP platform. Chances are, no one will actually want to buy your 99 cent ebook, so you are going to make it FREE (with a work around) and use this as a lead gen for your website/email list.
2: You are then going to take your longest article/articles, and turn these into an AUDIO book, which again acts as a springboard from Amazon to your content to build trust, educate and let them know about your website.
Step 1 brings you no money up front, but if you do this right can net you a LOT of affiliate income and build your list at the same time. Step 2 actually surprised me when doing my taxes. I currently have a single audio book live and it brought me in a few thousand dollars in royalties the past year and I havn't looked at it or touched it since.
Here is a bit of proof that this works and has led to hundreds of thousands of downloads:
So, let's first go over the free book, and then the more exiting method the audio book.
Creating A Free Book On Amazon With Your Blog Posts
I am not going to go into detail on how exactly to create a book (this is fairly straight forward), but you will need two things.
1: Get a KDP Account (free): https://kdp.amazon.com/
2: Get a Smashwords account (free): https://www.smashwords.com/
Create your book, format it, and get it uploaded to KDP. This is so straight forward (Google it)
In order to get your book perma free on Kindle, you need to get your book free on other major retailers that Amazon actually has some respect for. The one that I used was Barnes & Noble and this took about a week. Here is how to do it!
Smashwords
Smashwords is another retailer of ebooks. What makes this service so powerful is that its free, and they also distribute to major retailers such as Barnes & Noble, OverDrive, iBooks, and Kobo.
Upload your Book and set a price of free
It will almost immediately go online at Smashwords as a free book. On your dashboard, you will see that it has been submitted for premium status. This is where the magic happens. A real person will take a look over your work, and if it has followed all of proper formatting, then it will soon show up in the big retailers mentioned above.
It is VERY important that you follow their style guide. It can take a few days at a time for Smashwords to review your book. If it is not up to par, they will deny you, give you a list of things you need to fix, and then you can resubmit it. One of the things that I did wrong was do my table of contents a different way than they wanted.
Another reason I was denied was that my book had links back to Amazon, so remove those as well if you want perma free status.
Premium Status Achieved
Once your book has been looked over and has achieved premium status on Smashwords, it is just a waiting game from here.
Eventually, your book will show up on Barnes & Noble. This is one of the only online retailers that Amazon seems to care about. I tried to ask Amazon to price match me as soon as it was free on Smashwords, but it seems they have no respect for this service and I had to wait.
Emailing Amazon
Now, you could wait and wait and eventually Amazon should pick up on the fact that your book is free somewhere else. If you are not in the business of waiting for months on end, it is time to do something about it!
What I did was take the URL from Barnes & Noble, and email Amazon from inside my KDP dashboard. At the very bottom of your dashboard, in super small text, you should see Contact Us.
Click on Contact Us –> Pricing & Royalties –> Price Matching, and send them an email asking them to help you out. I told them I had a reader on my blog disappointed that he could get my book for free on my website as well as Barnes & Noble but had to pay for it on Amazon. A few hours later I got an email back stating that while they can decide to price match or not, they had forwarded it to the correct department and a few hours after THAT it was priced to free!
Do keep in mind that this is going to be geo dependent. If you want your eBook free on All Amazon TLDs you need to give them links from all GEO URLs from the major retailers
Note: There are a million and a half Facebook groups for free books. Go post in a few of them to get the ball rolling. Once you have those initial downloads, everything should take off and remain a stable stream of downloads and traffic back to your site if you put links in your book. ALSO, make sure to put some sort of ask at the end of your book for a review, a subscribe to the email list, or give the reader something if they visit your site.
Now, let's get into how even more money is made, by taking that same book/books and turning them into audio books spreading your brand around the internet.
Making Money Selling Audiobooks (ACX) Through Amazon
Note: I am going to be copy and pasting images from my own site because there is no way I am downloading a rehosting these. Feel free to complain about self promotion in the comments XD.
In order to be a successful internet marketer, you always have to be testing new ideas and markets. Time and time again I see people who want to make their first dollars online actually succeed in doing so but after many months or many years, it all dries up.
Why?
Because these people were not willing to adapt and keep learning. This is the number 1 reason that people fail. They do not want to test the market but keep doing the same thing over and over again, getting stuck in a vicious cycle.
During some downtime a while back, I stumbled across a video of a guy doing thousands of dollars through audiobooks. What really perked my interest is that these books are being sold through Amazon, or more importantly, Amazon’s audio book platform audible.com.
This is one of the biggest audiobook portals in the entire world and I myself have purchased a few during some long road trips.
When I first started selling t-shirts online, the driving factor and where most of my success came from is that they are being sold on Amazon where the customers already are. I did not have to drive traffic at all, only give an existing audience what they wanted. This opportunity looks EXACTLY the same and the competition is so low, its crazy! Chances are, your blog posts will fit right in.
Why Audible.com (Amazon’s Audiobook Platform)?
The very first thing I did was take a quick look at how much traffic the platform was getting. I was seeing people put up some pretty impressive numbers (into the 10 figures a month range) so before I dove in, I wanted to make sure the market was actually there.
What I did was take the domain (audible.com) and run it through similar web. This website is incredibly helpful in estimating the amount of traffic that a platform receives each and every month. It is WILDLY inaccurate, but gives a brief overview.
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/audible.png
As you can see at the time of writing this (I wrote this ages ago), there is almost 22 million visitors per month with an average duration of close to 5 minutes.
This is exactly what I want to see!
Lots of traffic, and relatively little competition because there are not that many books out there.
I was down to give this method a try and to my surprise over a year later, it actually worked.
Getting Your First Audiobook Published on ACX
Before you attempt to put up an audio book at all, you need to make sure you RESEARCH the niche. Just as with everything else when it comes to internet marketing, you need to make sure that there is customer demand, but that you can break into the market in the first place.
The way we do this is pretty simple.
Audiobook (ACX) Niche Research
First, you want to look at Amazon.com for books (NOT audiobooks). For the sake of this example, lets use the first niche that came to my head “merch by amazon”.
Head on over to Amazon.com and just type in the niche you are interested in. If you are pulling back results that are not books, just follow it up with “book”.
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/amazon-page.png
At the very top of the image, you can see that there are over “10,000” results for this niche. This is a good sign, that means there is customer demand there! Customers want to read and learn more about this niche.
I also happen to hold the first and third position for this keyword (those are my books) so it makes this experiment a little easier to start!
Even if there are a lot of results, you want to make sure to click on the first page of products, and look at the BSR or best sellers rank of an item. The lower the rank, the better it is selling.
You can see this in the product details section of the product page:
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/product-details.png
The best sellers rank is dependent on the category you are selling in. In this particular instance, this book gets about this many downloads per day:
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/merch-by-amazon-book.png
NOTE: Old screenshot but this book still averages almost the exact same downloads per day even over a year later.
Now that we have determined that there is customer demand here, we need to check the competition on Audible.com
In the upper right hand corner you will see the search box. This is where you want to put the same search term that you checked over on Amazon.com.
Click on search and see what comes up!
In this particular case there are ZERO results (note: there are now more than a few results). That means that there is definitely customer demand over at Amazon.com and there are literally zero books on this subject on the audible platform that Amazon owns (and gets 20+ million visitors each month). There is clearly an opportunity here.
After you get good at searching, you will realize that almost every niche under the sun has very very little competition.
What you want to look for is where there are lots of results with a good BSR (under 100k on Amazon.com) and you want to see that there is less than 100 results on Audible.
The opportunities here are almost endless. Remember, it is all about niching down!
Vegetable Gardening:
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/veggy-gardening.png
Sleeping better:
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/sleep-better.png
Make Money Online:
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/make-money-online.png
If one of the most competitive niches on the internet (making money online) has such small search results, then you KNOW this is an untapped gold mine.
NOTE: Screens are from when I published the book. Numbers are changed, but go check. Still stupid low competition in most niches that your blog posts are in.
Getting Your Audiobook Created
Now that we have a niche, we need an actual book! Any one of you reading this has the ability to write their own books. It does not matter if you are a great writer. However, if you are NOT a writer, no interest in being a writer, and simply want to get a book up to test this method, there is an easy way to do that.
Outsource!
I will be going over how to outsource the actual book creation as well as the audio voice over for that book once it is complete.
Your book can be as long as you like or as short as you like. However, how long it ends up being is going to determine what kind of royalty you get once the entire process is complete. Because of this, I would recommend about 20-25k words per book. This should put your final audiobook at just over 3 hours in length and this is where you make the best money. To hit this, you may want to take a few of your articles and combine them.
We have a niche, we have a target length for the book, now we just need to find someone to actually write the thing!
Go hire someone or do it yourself. This is pretty self explanatory.
I find that having a general outline for your book is the easiest way to get a good quality product. You can do this by looking at the chapter headings of some of the best sellers. Compile a list of all the headings, and then formulate your own online so that your book will be the most comprehensive book on the market for that niche.
Upload Your eBook to Kindle (if you didn't previously)
Before you can actually create your ACX book, you will need to upload your book to Kindle. This is a platform for ebooks that sell on Amazon and ANOTHER avenue for you to make money with your book (outside of audible sales).
Head on over to kindle here: https://kdp.amazon.com/.
Sign up for an account and enter in all your information so that you can get paid.
Now that you have an account, you need a few other bits before you can actually upload your book.
First, make sure you familiarize yourself with the cover requirements here: https://kdp.amazon.com/en_US/help/topic/G201113520
You now need to get a cover for your book created. The idea image requirements for kindle for your book cover are 2560 pixels by 1600 pixels.
Your book cover is important!!
I know everyone always says not to judge a book by its cover but we all do it. You do it, I do it, and your potential customers are going to do it too!
Because of this, head over to upwork and post a job for an ebook cover designer. There are a lot of very very talented artists out there and you should get an amazing cover for your book for $20-$30 dollars.
You can see here the cover that I went with that sticks out on the page:
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/blueprint-cover.png
Now that you have your book and your cover, let’s upload to Kindle!
Log in to Kindle and click on the Kindle new title button:
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/create-a-new-title.png
After you are done adding the Kindle eBook, I would highly suggest adding a paperback as well. We will not be focusing on the paperback, but this is just another avenue that you can make money from your book.
Give your book a title (what is on the book cover), an author, and a description.
Make sure your description is long and detailed. I like to tell a little bit about what is in the book as well as outline the chapters and what the customer will be learning when they read the book.
After you have filled those out, it is time to enter in some backend keywords. These are keywords that you want the book to rank for. Think like a customer here. Whatever they might search for, enter these as your back end keywords.
You have 7 boxes of keywords to fill up here. No need for any punctuation. As long as the keywords are relevant, enter them in.
Once you have your keywords selected, choose a category for your book, and then click on continue.
Now all that is really left is to upload your book, the cover, and pick out pricing:
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/manuscript-.png
You do not need to enter an ISBN so go ahead and click save and continue at the bottom of the page.
Set your book at $2.99 or above, and select the 70% royalty share. If you price below $2.99, you will get a much smaller cut. Since we will not be focusing on the actual ebook, every time it sells, we want to maximize our profit. (This is if you are just doing audiobooks and not the free book method mentioned above)
Now all you have to do is scroll to the bottom and click on publish your book!
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/publish-your-kindle-book.png
It can take a while to publish, but I typically see all my books going live within 24 hours. You need to wait for your book to go live, so in the meanwhile, I would suggest publishing the paperback version as well!
Publishing Your Book to ACX (Audible)
If you have made it this far and are still with me, impressive.
So far you should have a book with a cover, and it is published on Kindle meaning it is for sale on Amazon.com.
This means we can FINALLY start creation of our audiobook!
To begin, head over to ACX.com and sign up for an account. This is the dashboard for audible.com which is where we want to publish our book.
Again, fill out all your information and take the tax interview. Once you have done that, click on “Add Your Title” from the upper right hand corner.
Search by keyword and find your book on Amazon.com. Once you have found it, click on “This is my eBook”.
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/my-ebook.png
Once you select your book, you will see a popup that asks what you want to do with your ebook:
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/produce-ebook.png
Now the fun part starts!
You can either upload audio for the book you already have (which I assume you don’t), of you can find someone to narrate the book for you. This is not going to be free, but you can find some real talent out there that will read your book and allow you to publish audiobooks without ever using your own voice.
Select the first option and click on continue.
Accept the terms and conditions, and click on continue.
The next page is where you want to fill out your book information. Since your book is already on Kindle, most of this is going to be selected for you.
The interesting parts are these:
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/book-deetz.png
This lets you say that you want to receive auditions from narrators but also lets you describe the voice you are looking for. I like to select this based on the topic of the book and what would fit best.
After you upload a test piece of your book for your narrator auditions, click on next.
The next page is the MOST IMPORTANT part of the entire process. You can pick how you pay the person that is narrating your book.
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/pay-narrator.png
By default, the first option is going to be selected (Royalty Share) but you do NOT want to do this! If you have a successful book, that means you will giving half your royalty away for many years to come.
Instead, select pay for production and pay your narrators up front. I have found that the lowest level of $0-$50 per finished hour (PFH) works well and you get some quality people applying to narrate your book.
For a book of 20,000 words, you can expect to pay a little over $100, but you do not have to do any of the work yourself!
You will start getting auditions almost immediately over the next few days and you will be able to see this in your top menu.
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/auditions.png
Make sure to go through all the auditions and listen to each one of them as everyone has their unique style and some attach specific notes about the project to their audition:
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/auditions2.png
Once you have someone selected, all you have to do is then make an offer, and they will do the rest!
The narrator you chose may send you a few questions over messages, so make sure you are watching your email whenever those come in.
Once your narrator has finished the book, you have to approve it. After you approve it, you MUST pay your narrator before the book will go live on audible. This is not very clear for a first time user.
I was expecting the system to use my card on file, but had to follow up and actually send the narrator the money over paypal. After that occurs, they will also approve the book, and it will get final approval from the ACX team!
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/approval.png
Once you receive that email, it is just a waiting game as the book is pushed out to retail!
https://neillassen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/book-to-audible.png
TIP: If you email the ACX team and ask nicely, they will give you 25 codes for free books so that you can give them out to people for review. This is a good way to bump your book inside of audible and start getting downloads.
Wrapping It Up
When building your business, use every tool at your disposal to drive traffic and build up your audience.
Focus on building a brand and not just a website.
submitted by W1ZZ4RD to juststart [link] [comments]

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How I got banned from sports betting... - Arbitrage Betting Explained

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