2020 Presidential Election Betting Odds - Political

If you had to bet your entire savings on it, who will be the next US president?

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01-02 12:52 - 'I bet liberals will see it as a coincidence that the safest year in aviation history was under President Donald J Trump, who promised us the safest skies ever and DELIVERED ON THAT PROMISE. / NEXT STOP THE WALL!' by /u/Nonce-Victim removed from /r/worldnews within 51-61min

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I bet liberals will see it as a coincidence that the safest year in aviation history was under President Donald J Trump, who promised us the safest skies ever and DELIVERED ON THAT PROMISE.
NEXT STOP THE WALL!
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Author: Nonce-Victim
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Here’s your morning coffee!

Good morning, hope everyone trades responsibly, let’s make some money!

DOW JONES

Boeing Company (BA) - Air Lease (AL) updated on its order book deliveries, sales and new significant financing occurring in Q2; at the end of the quarter, its fleet was comprised of 301 owned aircraft and 81 managed aircraft, with 398 new aircraft on order from Boeing and Airbus (EADSY) set to deliver through 2026; it delivered one new Airbus A320neo aircraft from its order book, and sold four aircraft.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is facing calls from over 170 nonprofit groups to stop selling its talc-based Baby Powder worldwide, over concerns that it contains cancer-causing Asbestos, while some are also calling for the clearing of existing inventories.
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) Q3 20 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.83 (exp. 1.17), Revenue 34.6bln (exp. 34.36bln), FY20 Adj. EPS view 4.65-4.75 (exp. 5.42); Suspending share repurchase programme, raises quarterly dividend to USD 0.4675/shr, a 2.2% increase. US Retail Pharmacy SSS +3.0% (exp. +1.2%). Most significant COVID-19 impact was in the UK market which required a review resulting in a non-cash impairment charge of USD 2bln. Boots (UK) will be cutting around 4,000 jobs. Annual cost savings to be in excess of USD 2bln by FY2022.

NASDAQ 100

Alphabet Inc (GOOG/GOOGL) said it has shut down its cloud project named “Isolated Region” and added that it was not weighing options to offer its cloud platform in China; earlier reports had stated that GOOG had shelved the project in China and other politically sensitive countries in May, partly due to rising geopolitical tensions and the pandemic; GOOG, however, added that the project’s shutdown was not due to either of those two reasons and that it has not offered cloud platform services in China.
American Airlines Group (AAL) / United Airlines (UAL) have temporarily halted flights to Hong Kong after its government-imposed coronavirus testing requirements for airline crews, according to Politico.
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) June sales update saw comparable sales (ex-gasoline and FX) rose 13.6% in the June five-week period, accelerating from the +9.2% seen in May, beating forecasts for around 9% growth.
Facebook, Inc. (FB) announced it is starting a chat with a business using QR codes, where people can scan QR codes businesses show at stores, product packaging or receipts to start a chat. It notes there are over 50mln WhatsApp Business app users globally every month.
Gilead Sciences (GILD) plans to make more of its drug remdesivir available for Germany and Europe from the fall, and will decide how much each country gets based on the rate of infection; it added that it could increase its worldwide monthly production from currently 190,000 treatment cycles to two million treatment cycles in December. Remdesivir is currently the only drug granted a conditional marketing authorisation by the EU for its use in COVID-19 patients.Oracle Corp. (ORCL) (Information Technology/Application Software) has been awarded a cloud services agreement by the Canadian government.

S & P 500

Carnival Corp. (CCL) Aida cruises are to recommence sailing vacations in August.
Ford Motor (F) said its China vehicle sales increased 3% in April-June from a year earlier, its first quarterly sales rise in China in almost three years; China sales grew by 158,589 units in Q2, attributed to the rise to a stronger vehicle line up and “strong demand following the lifting of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions”.
Mylan NV (MYL) announced it received FDA approval for its Hulio, a biosimilar to AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) Humira, for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis.
Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) has been accused of being biased against conservatives and demanded information about its reactions to two tweets by President Donald Trump; two GOP lawmakers allege TWTR’s content moderation was not neutral. Meanwhile, analysts at Citi note its shares overreacted to the potential subscription service reports yesterday. Analyst Jason Bazinet says although it makes sense, there are many unknowns, such as the price and whether or not it will have advertisements. The analyst highlights that a consumer survey shows roughly 10% of its respondents were willing to pay for a USD 5/mth plan without ads and more analytic services. Citi estimates if such a service were to occur, it would be priced at USD 20/year internationally and USD 60/year in the US, assuming a 5% penetration for base case and 10% for its bull case with advertisements, the analyst believes the revenue contribution would be limited. Citi maintain a neutral rating.
United Continental Holdings (UAL) expects to recognise USD 300mln in employee separation charges in Q2, with USD 50mln to be in cash.
ViacomCBS (VIAC) reached a deal to stream all the UEFA Champions League and Europa League matches starting in August.

OTHER

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) Q1 20 (USD): Adj. EPS -1.96 (exp. -1.22), revenue 1.31bln (exp. 1.39bln). Announced it is to close 200 stores over two years as sales fell around 50% during pandemic; BBBY said it was not reporting comp sales due to temporary store closures.
DocuSign (DOCU) had its PT upgraded at Wedbush to USD 240 (prev. USD 165, prev. closing price 206.35). The analyst “continues to believe DOCU’s deal flow is holding up well/stronger than expected in this Covid-19 pandemic environment which bodes well for strong underlying metrics/headline numbers during FY2Q”.
DraftKings (DKNG) and Twin River Worldwide (TRWH) Mardi Gras Casino announced the opening of DKNG’s temporary sportsbook at the casino in Black Hawk, Colorado. Guests can place bets at the sportsbook from 10th July.
Energy Transfer (ET) provided further clarification around news reports regarding the operations of the Dakota Access Pipeline, stating that it has never suggested that it would defy a court order. Rather, Dakota Access Pipeline was seeking appropriate relief from that order through the established legal process.
Japan Display (6740 JT) : FY group net loss JPY 101.42bln (prev. net loss JPY 106.59bln), operating loss JPY 38.54bln (prev. loss JPY 27.23bln), recurring loss JPY 57.76bln (prev. JPY 40.37bln).
Moderna (MRNA) announced a collaboration for large-scale commercial fill-finish manufacturing of its vaccine candidate with Rovi.
PTC (PTC) expects to deliver fiscal third quarter 2020 ARR growth of 9% year over year, 10% in constant currency; and also expects to deliver double-digit revenue and free cash flow year-over-year growth for the fiscal third quarter 2020; it will report results on 29th July.
Restaurant Brands (QSR) Burger King in the UK is warning of 1,600 potential job losses as it could close up to 10% of its restaurants
SAP (SAP GY, SAP) – Q2 prelim: total revenue EUR 6.74bln, +2% (+1% non-IFRS), operating profit EUR 1.28bln, +55% YY (+8% non-IFRS), non-IFRS cloud revenue EUR 2.04bln +21% YY (19% non-IFRS). At present, cloud backlog seen at EUR 6.65bln, +20%, cloud backlog remains strong but cloud revenue in Q2 was impacted by lower pay-as-you-go transactional revenue given COVID-19. Reiterates FY20 outlook. For FY20: confirm non-IFRS revenue EUR 27.8-28.5bln vs. Prev. EUR 27.6bln, cloud revenue EUR 8.3-8.7bln vs. prev. EUR 7.0bln, operating profit EUR 8.1-8.7bln vs. Prev. EUR 8.2bln. Have seen a strong sequential improvement compared to Q1 regarding software license revenue. Q2 & H1 results will be released on 27th July.
Siemens (SIE GY, SIEGY) – Are to spin off 55% of Siemens Energy to shareholders will equate to 1 Siemens Energy share for 2 Siemens shares. Initial listing of new shares is scheduled for 28th September 2020, will commence with a BBB rating at S&P. Siemens will retain a 35.1% stake in the spin-off and the Siemens pension trust an additional 9.9% stake, as such Siemens no longer has a controlling share. Further stake reductions could take place at a significant scale in the next 12-18 months. Separately, Co. are not planning any job reductions from COVID-19. For reference, in FY19 Siemens Energy generated revenue of circa EUR 29bln according to Siemens AG combined statements.

Additional US Equity Stories

Of note for Social Media names (FB, TWTR, SNAP), ByteDance is reportedly considering a change in the corporate structure to distance the app from China, and is also considering a TikTok HQ outside of China, according to WSJ.
Peloton (PTON) new product will probably not be a rowing machine or exercise bike, its CFO announced, but it could potentially be a lower price treadmill. The CFO stated the co. believes “the running and boot camp category is two-to-three [times] the size of the bike category”, adding it is first and foremost on their minds, reports Barron’s.
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) CFO says towards the end of Q3 online volume sales reached Black Friday levels on a daily basis, and May sales increased almost 120%, with June sales growth even higher.
Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk announced the automaker was "very close" to developing fully autonomous vehicles and could work out the basics of that technology as soon as this year; he reiterated that the electric vehicle maker has solved most of the essential challenges toward achieving fully self-driven cars that needs no human behind the wheel. The Tesla and SpaceX chief was reaffirming a goal first expressed in 2019.
Delta AIrlines (DAL) CEO reiterates urge for workers to consider voluntary departure., and announced it flew 20% of customers over the July 4th weekend.
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HOT TAKE: People in townships aren't abiding the lockdown regulation because they have nothing else to do.

If I'm missing something, please let me know, but...
It's easy for our president to go onto TV and implement a regulation and expect everyone to abide by this new regulation. Then hop into his bullet proof SUV and be chauffeured to his multi million rand home, pour a whiskey and watch some Netflix while the rest of the country's power goes out.
So obviously I'm exaggerating here a little, but most of us on here, we may not be rich, but we have internet, we can read and most likely have a solid roof over our heads. You can't say this much for the people living in shacks in townships.
STORY TIME:
Imagine you're living in a township, you can barely read (if you can), you might have a TV but you probably don't have internet. Sometimes your power is out and you can do literally nothing. All you know is loitering on the streets with your friends and work. For recreation you may play some sports, you might do some betting at the sports bar or you drink with your peers. Your idea of recreation isn't Netflix / Series and or gaming, it's socialising and being active somehow (maybe loitering on the streets whatever) and you probably don't know how to do any of the other things people are doing to keep themselves busy during lockdown. You also live in a 12x6 shack that's either freezing cold or scorching hot.
Pair this up with not having any money, the little you do have comes from the government and it's probably late all the time. Let's not even mention if you have a family to look after and kids that need to be educated to hopefully live better lives than you are one day. So you do whatever the fuck you want to do anyway. Nothing good is coming from the regulations for the lockdown so why abide by them. All it's done is cause you more pain and stress. Your friends open their shebeens, your other friends start selling smokes and you, you find something else to do to take care of yourself.
CONCLUSION:
The lockdown isn't being as effective as the government would like it to be because it doesn't understand its people. The middle to upper class South Africans can deal with a lockdown, most of us can work from home anyway and not being able to smoke or drink is merely a nuisance than it is anything else. For the majority of South Africans not being able to work, not being able to learn and not being able to provide for their families is devastating.Not to mention the years of economical damage we've done by taking out loans and giving money away so our people won't starve to death!
I understand that we have a health crisis, I understand the pandemic. But locking down the country isn't working and another solution should come to realisation, maybe stricter policies around sanitisation and protective health gear. I don't know I'm not being paid to solve that. But a few more months of lockdown and COVID deaths aren't going to be the biggest problem for the healthcare industry.
Masses of people too poor to afford food or housing will start stealing, violence in townships are already a problem, what happens when you confine these people to their homes with no money and food for long extended periods of time? Nothing good I can tell you that.
So either we as a country or community need to find a way to feed our less fortunate brothers and sisters (now more than ever, we should anyway be trying to help the less fortunate) and keep them busy (maybe find them some sort of way to earn money from home using skills they already have, knitting or shipping them things to assemble?) or we're in for a wild time in the next couple of months.
submitted by Spekk0 to southafrica [link] [comments]

r/NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season - #20-11

Welcome to the reveal for players ranked 20-11 for this year’s NFL Top 100 Players for the 2019 Season!

Players whose average rank had them land in places 20-11 are on this portion of the list revealed today. Players are associated with the team they finished 2019 with.
Below you will see write-ups from rankers summarizing the players' 2019 season and why they were among the best in 2019. Stats for each player are from this season and are included below. Additionally, their previous ranks in this long running series are also available for all of you.
Methodology
LINK TO THE HUB POST WITH A MORE DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY
  1. A CALL FOR RANKERS just after the Super Bowl.
  2. Rankers for each team nominated players to rank. 10 Games Played Minimum Threshold. Players are associated with the team they finished the 2019 Season with.
  3. The Grind. Utilize ranking threads for individual rankers broken up by positional group. Users were tasked with ranking players within the following tiers based on their evaluation: T-25, T-50, T-100, T-125 based on 2019 regular season only. There were no individual case threads. There were no arbitrary position limit caps. Just questions and rankings.
  4. Users submitted their individual Top 125 list. Ranking out to 125 is new for this year.
  5. User lists were reviewed for outliers by me with assistance from two former rankers. Users were permitted to correct any mistakes found. Once complete, lists were locked.
  6. Reveal the list… right now.
So now, without further ado, here are the players ranked 20-11 in the NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season!

#20 - Danielle Hunter - EDGE - Minnesota Vikings

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R N/R 32
Written By: uggsandstarbux
Khalil Mack. Von Miller. JJ Watt. Those are the names that come up when you mention edge players in the NFL over the last half a decade. Yet none have as many sacks as Danielle Hunter in the last two years. Hunter is continually passed over in the conversation of edge rushers. Even among young edge rushers like the Bosa brothers, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, and Bradley Chubb, Hunter is forgotten. He only received 4 All Pro votes from AP (of a possible 50). He failed to make PFF’s All Pro team. Is it because he wasn’t a 1st round pick? Is it because the Vikings defense was already dominant before his arrival?
Hunter has improved every year he’s gotten into the league (88 pressures this year vs 67 last year vs 55 in 2016). His first couple years in the league, he rotated in behind Everson Griffen and Brian Robinson. Yet he holds the record for most sacks before his 25th birthday and was one of only a handful of players in 2019 with double digit sacks and 15+ TFLs last season. He earned an 89.0 overall grade from PFF and forced 3 fumbles this year.
Beyond the numbers, Hunter is a unit. He came out of LSU as one of the more raw pass rushers in his draft. However, under the tutelage of the mighty Andre Patterson, Hunter has become one of the most athletic, versatile, technical, dominant edge defenders in the game. He can beat you with a pure bull rush, but he can also beat you with his speed and agility. He’s picked up Everson Griffen’s deadly spin move and has the motor to work through double teams. He can win with an inside move, or he can play pure 3T for an entire game (a la vs NO). He’s got a great understanding of the game and is a force to be reckoned with. If you’re placing bets for DPOY in 2020, don’t waste your money on the big name guys like Aaron Donald (+750) or Khalil Mack (+1100). Don’t spend it on young up and comers, lke Nick Bosa (+1300) or TJ Watt (+1500) either. Place it on Danielle Hunter (+2300). He’s going to continue dominating as he gains more recognition and climbs toward stardom.

#19 - Chris Godwin - Wide Receiver - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R
Written By: MysticTyph00n
At the beginning of the 2019 NFL season Bruce Arians said:
"I think Chris Godwin is going to be close to a 100-catch guy, especially because I think he can play in the slot,"...."He's never coming off the field."
Bucs fans thought this could be very well true in BA's system, especially with the departure of Desean Jackson which only really left Mike Evans as the only other real target on the team.
The 3rd round pick from Penn State showed up big time this year after having two relatively quiet seasons. Through 13.5 games (missing the final 2.5 due to a hamstring injury) he amassed 86 receptions for 1,333 yards, 9 TDs and only one drop(In fact he's only had 2 drops total in 2018 & 2019)He very well could have gone over 100 receptions , 1,500 yards as well as double digit TDs, but that's just projecting right?
According to PFF he was an absolute monster in the slot with an outstanding 96.5 grade, which shows he can line up anywhere on the field and still produce big time for the Buccaneers.
In 2020, I honestly expect Chris Godwin to have close to the same production, and possibly even better with how much he produces from the slot.
Please don't leave us…

#18 - Quenton Nelson - Offensive Guard - Indianapolis Colts

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 70
Written By: Zzyzx8
Selecting a guard 6th overall was a bold movie for second year GM Chris Ballard, even one as highly touted as Quenton Nelson. Casual fans hated it, while draft junkies loved it. Two years later, it’s become clear that the pick was a home run. Nelson’s selection single handedly turned around a unit that was largely responsible for a slew of injuries to Andrew Luck into one of the best units. Nelson’s second year was only better, cementing himself as one of the best guards in the league, a true road grader. He spent the past year terrorizing nfl defensive lineman en route to his second pro bowl and all pro selections. Plus, he pulled off what was by far the best touchdown celebration of the season

#17 - Jamal Adams - Strong Safety - New York Jets

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R 18
Written By: the_fuzzy_stoner robdog1330
I would just like to start with a moment of silence for the fans of the New York Jets after Jamal Adams recently demanded a trade from that inept organization with a dumpster fire of a coach in Adam Gase.
Anyways, after an incredible sophomore season, Adams has kept up with his awesome play in his third season as one of the NFL's best and most versatile defensive players as well as the clear-cut best player on a football team that somehow won seven games. Adams, also known as President 'Mal, recorded an interception (which was returned 61 yards to the house), 7 passes defended, 11 hurries, and 36 stops, but that's not all! Adams also garnered 6.5 sacks (which is amazing for a DB) and forced two fumbles (like this one he returned to the house on my guy Daniel Jones 😔). With his exceptional play, the star safety was named to the 1st Team All-Pro as well as his second Pro Bowl selection (an honor which none of his other Jets teammates got this year).
What makes Adams so special is that he is exceptional against both the running and passing game. Whether he's with Gang Green or another franchise next year, I'd expect another stellar season out of Jamal Adams in 2020 (assuming there is one) and even as a Giants fan who watched him dominate my team this past season, I really appreciate the guy's play.

#16 - Derrick Henry - Running Back - Tennessee Titans

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R N/R
Written By: broccolibush42
DERRRRIIIICK HENRY!!!
This part man part tractor was the plow that turned our barren field into a bountiful wheat field full of Nashville Hot Chicken. This beautiful muscly man with a poop rat tail decimated opponents and General Sherman'd the AFC South. Totaling at 1540 yards and 16 Touchdowns in 15 games, with 6 coming from a slow start in a Mariota lead offense, he caught fire and dragged his nuts all over teams like the Chargers, Chiefs, Jags, Colts, Texans, Raiders and was showing just absolute dominance on the field. (Sadly we arent able to take the playoffs into account otherwise i'd gush over how he embarrassed a couple of scrub one and done teams).
Henry has this certain tenacity and a godlike level of endurance that just makes him an absolute beast in the 2nd half. He is just able to keep going, and going, and going, until finally, players get tired of it and turn into lead blockers for him. He is extremely hard to tackle to. Take a look at this play against the Chiefs in week 10, guys just bounce off him like he's running through toddlers. Derrick Henry is so hard to tackle that, according to PFF, Henry had over 1200 of his 1540 total yards after contact. Like this dude was getting hit at the line of scrimmage and he is just like, fuck this shit, i aint no dion lewis, and keeps going. How is this guy even real???
Another thing about Henry is his speed! Henry is a 6'3" 240 pound dude running 20+ MPH down the field when he breaks the open one. Like look at this speed he gets vs the Browns in week 1. Or this one against the Jags where he outruns guys and stiff arms the ones who barely managed to keep pace. Speaking of stiff arms, Derrick Henry has one of, if not, the BEST Stiff Arm in the league. If I had to pick a way to die, I think I would like Henry to stiff arm me in the face running at me at 21 miles per hour with this face, because there would be no greater honor to a titans fan than death by Henry. That concludes my Henry jerk fest. Here are some more highlights. and here are the real link.

#15 - Travis Kelce - Tight End - Kansas City Chiefs

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/R 84 N/R 28 31 13
Written By: DTSportsNow
Travis Kelce was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2013 draft. He wound up missing his rookie season due needing to receive microfracture surgery on his knee over the offseason and dealing with a bone bruise during the season. Since then he's received 4 All-Pro designations and was named to the NFL 2010s All-Decade team. He's also become the 1st TE in NFL history to have 4 straight 1,000+ yard seasons. Not bad considering how his career got started.
In 2019 he finished his 2nd straight season of 1,200+ yards and 3rd straight season leading the league in deep receiving yards by a tight end (274). He finished top 4 in overall TE grade for the 4th straight year (85.1), and was named to his second 2nd-team All-Pro designation. In the Sunday Night Football contest against the Chicago Bears he caught his 500th career reception, becoming the fastest TE in NFL history to reach that mark.
There's no doubt that Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the game, and winding up in the top 20 proves many believe him to be one of the very best players in the league. Since Gronk's decline it's essentially been between him and George Kittle for the top player at the position. He's a key component of what Andy Reid and the Chiefs like to do on offense, even as stacked as the offence is. With a Super Bowl victory and a few records to his name already his legacy will be decided by how long he can keep up his premier play. His partnership with Patrick Mahomes should take him to a locked up Hall of Fame bust.

#14 - Ryan Ramczyk - Offensive Tackle - New Orleans Saints

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 100 74
Written By: Dahki
In 2017, sb nation wrote an article claiming that Ryan Ramczyk wasn't a first round talent at LT. The site went so far as to say he would benefit from a switch to RT. In short, they ended up nailing that on the head. The three-year vet has spent almost the entirety of his career anchoring the right side of the Saints O-line after being picked at 32 overall, and boy, has it worked out for both the team and the Wisconsin alum.
Ram makes the /nfl top 100 list for two reasons. First, he was really good. Second, we really wanted to hammer in the idea that the Saints O-line as a whole was really good. Most notably, Ram exits the 2019 season with his first first-team all pro, and he was more than deserving of it. Similar to teammate Terron Armstead, Ram refused to allow Brees or Teddy to be touched, giving up no sacks on the season. Even better, Ram kept his QBs almost squeaky clean in the pocket, allowing just one hit on the entire season, good for 2nd best in the league among nominated tackles. And Ram didn't just do well in pass pro; he was PFFs top graded OT when run-blocking, showcasing his power and quickness from his spot. In total, Ram spent the 2019 season as the biggest challenge for opposing D-lines to overcome when facing the Saints.

#13 - Julio Jones - Wide Receiver - Atlanta Falcons

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
32 93 23 8 2 21 17
Written By: CokeZ3ro
It's a bird, it’s a plane, no it's Jet Jones! In his 9th season Julio continues to be one of the most dominant receivers in the NFL, and the undisputed best player on the team. He’s a force that defenses must give their full attention, and even then he can explode. Even when he doesn’t get the ball, his influence and abilities still shape the play, and better everyone around him. This past offseason Julio agreed to a three-year contract extension worth $66 million, making him the NFL’s highest paid WR, and extending him to 2023. Even though 2019 was a down year statistically, Julio continued to show why the money is worth it. In a “down year” Julio was 2nd in reception yards, 3rd in Yards/Game, and 1st in Scrimmage Yards/Touch, and made his 6th consecutive Pro-Bowl.
But stats can hardly capture the elite combination of athleticism and skill that makes Julio so great. A combination perfectly captured here where Julio is able to jump over the coverage of CB Leodis McKelvin and then tiptoe to complete the coverage on the way down. Later that same game, with the Falcons against the wall, Julio showed that no man can catch him in a 53-yard burst (shoutout to Jake Matthews for the Pancake Block). Julio utilized his route skills to make CB Pierre Desir eat turf before making a 34-yard reception; which likely would have been much more if Ryan didn’t underthrow it. He’s pretty good at catching too, exhibited as reaches over CB Quincy Wilson and manages to hold onto the ball through tackles from Wilson and SS Clayton Geathers to score. Doesn’t matter who you are, Luke Keuchly, Marshon Lattimore, AJ Bouye; doesn’t matter. bUt hE dOEsn’T gET tOUchDoWnS I hear the Fantasy owners say. Watch this and notice how often in the redzone Julio is serving to support his team (blocks, inside presence, taking double defenders), or is just ignored. He’s open more often people realize.
Even in a disappointing season for the Falcons, Julio continues to shine through as one of the NFL’s premiere combos of athleticism and skill. Julio is and will continue to be an absolute force for the offense.

#12 - Chandler Jones - EDGE - Arizona Cardinals

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/R N/R N/R N/R 60 24 100
Written By: Beehay
In my write up of ChanJo last year, I mentioned that the return to the 3/4 (even if it's under Vance Joseph) will be huge for his stats. And boy howdy was it! At 30 years old and after double digit sack totals for 5 straight years, Jones set a career high of sacks at 19 this year. He had 8 Forced Fumbles, 53 Tackles, and 26 QB hits. Most of his stats improved from 2018, some more drastically than others. His pass coverage marginally improved but why the hell would you really want him to cover guys? (Don't say it Niners fans, DON'T SAY IT)
Chandler Jones is the prototype for edge defenders. He is what all other Defensive Coordinators wish they had. Strong, fast, smart, consistent. Here's a guys opinion and a breakdown. Here's some highlights because not everybody watched all 16 Cardinals games last year and I don't blame them. I think he will rank even higher next year if he stays healthy because he will finally get to settle into a defense again. Even if it's Vance Joseph's.

#11 - Ronnie Stanley - Offensive Tackle - Baltimore Ravens

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R 97
Written By: Letsgomountaineers5
Where to begin with Ronnie Stanley? Oh, how about a nearly minute long clip of him absolutely bullying First Team All Pro and NFC DPOY Chandler Jones. You like that? (Sorry Cards fans, but hey we all know Chandler Jones is a beast). Ronnie Stanley was the best LT in the league. No wait, actually he was the best overall tackle in the league. Actually, Stanley was the best lineman in the league, bar none. I truly believe Stanley was a top 5 player in the NFL last season and even tried (and failed/came to senses) to argue Stanley as a top 2 player. His dominance on the left side of that line was unprecedented.
I know stats don’t paint the entire picture, especially for OL, but I have to start there because his stats were unworldly as a blindside protector facing the best pass rushers the NFL has to offer. Going against the likes of TJ Watt twice a year, Carlos Dunlap twice a year, Myles Garrett, Chandler Jones, Nick Bosa, Shaq Barrett (need I go on), he allowed zero sacks and six pressures on 445 pass blocking snaps. Of tackles with at least 400 pass blocking snaps to allow 6 pressures or less, he was the only one. Wait, the only one? Let’s expand. 10 pressures on 400 snaps? Hmm. Only Ronnie Stanley. 15? Hmm only Ronnie Stanley. 20 and no sacks? Only Ronnie Stanley. Unreal.
So how does he do it? Well for starters, he has an elite pass rusher’s explosion as an offensive lineman. He can pack a pop that will knock the best rushers off line or on their ass without overextending. Just ask Nick Bosa. Refer back to the Chandler Jones lowlight reel for a second and check out how often he simply beats Jones (one of the most explosive and best bending edge rushers in the game) to his spot time and time again. Stanley is out of his stance so fast it looks like he’s false starting and, be it film review/sixth sense/sheer athleticism (my money is on all three), he hits the pass rushers’ marks before they do. Sometimes, he even chips defenders to the ground he doesn’t have a responsibility for. Because of these reasons, he’s basically the only lineman in the game not playing catchup and is tremendously equipped to react to counters. In the run game, he was a driving reason behind that team’s record setting running success. He can be a mauler, but with his speed also can pull like the best guards in the game and lead block for some of the fastest players in the game.
At the end of the day, his dominance in both pass blocking and run blocking makes him a worthy top 15 player, and if not for a tendency to underrate linemen, I believe he should’ve been a shoe-in for the top 10. If you read this far, thank you. Now I need to go puke after that glowing endorsement for a Raven.

LINK TO 2019 POSITIONAL GROUPING TRACKER

LINK TO 2019 RANKER SHEETS

LINK TO HUB

Schedule Change

Unveiling of ranks 10-6 will take place Monday, July 6 instead of Tuesday. Unveiling of ranks 5-1 will take place on Thursday, July 9. Thank you!
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Megathread: Bernie Sanders in narrow win over Buttigieg in the New Hampshire Democratic primary

Bernie Sanders narrowly won the New Hampshire Democratic primary by a margin of about 4,000 votes, or less than 2 percentage points, over Pete Buttigieg, according to an NBC News projection.
Sanders, who represents neighboring Vermont, had been leading in the polls, so his victory wasn’t a surprise. But he and Buttigieg were closely bunched with the third-place candidate, Amy Klobuchar, allowing all three to claim either victory or solid momentum going into the next round of voting.
At the same time, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., were headed toward poor showings and failed to get any delegates, NBC News projected.

Submissions that may interest you

SUBMISSION DOMAIN
Sanders edges Buttigieg in New Hampshire, Dem front-runners apnews.com
Bernie Sanders Wins The New Hampshire Democratic Primary huffpost.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire primary thehill.com
Hey Everyone, Bernie Is 2-0': Sanders Wins First-in-the-Nation Primary. After nabbing popular vote victory in Iowa, Sanders takes the Granite State. "What we have done together here is nothing short of the beginning of a political revolution," Sanders declared. commondreams.org
Bernie Sanders Has Won The New Hampshire Primary. What’s Next? rollingstone.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire Primary nytimes.com
Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire nytimes.com
Sanders wins New Hampshire Primary nbcnews.com
Socialist Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire dailywire.com
New Hampshire primary: Bernie Sanders wins, CBS News projects cbsnews.com
Sanders projected to win the New Hampshire Democratic primary jpost.com
New Hampshire Feels the Bern: Sanders Wins First-in-the-Nation Primary commondreams.org
Bernie Sanders projected to win New Hampshire primary: NBC News cnbc.com
New Hampshire primary: Bernie Sanders projected to win as Democrats look to clarify muddled race abc7ny.com
Bernie Sanders wins the New Hampshire Democratic primary nbcnews.com
Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg locked in another tight race in New Hampshire cnn.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire primary, making him the new national frontrunner businessinsider.com
Bernie Sanders just won the all-important New Hampshire primary vox.com
NBC News Exit Poll: Income divides Sanders and Buttigieg supporters in New Hampshire primary nbcnews.com
New Hampshire: Bernie Sanders leads in early results from key primary theguardian.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire Democratic primary sbs.com.au
Bernie Sanders sweeps New Hampshire, eyes oligarch njtoday.net
Sanders wins New Hampshire primary in narrow victory over Buttigieg marketwatch.com
'Hey Everyone, Bernie Is 2-0': Sanders Wins New Hampshire Primary commondreams.org
With New Hampshire Behind Him, Sanders Looks to Nevada Workers as Vegas Union Bosses Rally Against Him theintercept.com
Sanders on NH victory: Win is 'beginning of the end for Donald Trump' thehill.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire Democratic primary; Buttigieg, Klobuchar are top moderate candidates washingtonpost.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire primary - 'We are putting together an unprecedented, multi-generational, multi-racial movement, and this is a movement from coast to coast' independent.co.uk
Sanders wins three-way contest in New Hampshire primary wsws.org
Another split decision: Sanders narrowly beats Buttigieg in New Hampshire - Amy Klobuchar captures headlines with strong third-place finish; Warren and Biden far back in fourth and fifth salon.com
Democratic field narrows after New Hampshire but race is far from settled - The Democratic presidential primary now appears to be a battle between Bernie Sanders and any candidate who can stop him theguardian.com
Sanders edges Buttigieg in New Hampshire, cementing Democratic front-runners denverpost.com
Bernie Sanders' uneasy New Hampshire win axios.com
Sanders Wins In New Hampshire, Narrowly Beating Buttigieg aljazeera.com
Bernie takes New Hampshire as Buttigieg, Klobuchar fight to be his main opponent - Sanders emerges as frontrunner, but dropoff from 2016 suggests his campaign falls far short of a "revolution" salon.com
Sanders wins vote; Buttigieg leads in total delegates cnn.com
Bernie Sanders has crushed his Left-wing rivals while moderates fight each other - The battle among centrists to find an alternative is further boosting Bernie Sanders telegraph.co.uk
How Sanders Held Off Buttigieg And Klobuchar In New Hampshire fivethirtyeight.com
Sanders Is The Front-Runner After New Hampshire, And A Contested Convention Has Become More Likely fivethirtyeight.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire primary, narrowly beating Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar latimes.com
Bernie Sanders a limp leader after barely squeaking by in New Hampshire nypost.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire, DOJ turmoil and Westminster names new top dog: The Morning Rundown nbcnews.com
Sanders Is Winning Because He's Popular - Voters like the senator from Vermont—it’s socialism that makes them nervous. theatlantic.com
Bernie Sanders Got More Young Voters in New Hampshire Than Everyone Else Combined vox.com
Fueled by Diverse Working Class Voters, Sanders' New Hampshire Win Celebrated as 'Major Victory for Progressive Movement' commondreams.org
Did Bernie Sanders underperform in New Hampshire? vox.com
Watching Bernie Sanders Claim Victory In New Hampshire newyorker.com
New Hampshire resident tells MSNBC that its anti-Bernie Sanders coverage made her 'angry,' inspired her to vote for him in primary theblaze.com
With Back-to-Back Wins for Sanders, Pundits Proven Wrong in Iowa and New Hampshire commondreams.org
What New Hampshire's exit polls tell us about the primary - Bernie Sanders cleaned up among younger voters but was spurned by older ones. For Amy Klobuchar, it was the opposite. politico.com
Sanders rolls forward amid moderate divide - His triumph in New Hampshire also illuminated his vulnerabilities. politico.com
In New Hampshire and Beyond, Medicare for All Is Fueling Sanders’s Rise truthout.org
Ex-Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein laid into Bernie Sanders after his New Hampshire win, saying he'll wreck the economy and let Russia 'screw up the US' businessinsider.com
'Do They Never Learn?': Progressives Rip Media Attempts to Downplay Bernie Sanders Win in NH Primary commondreams.org
Why Bernie Sanders's New Hampshire primary win should terrify you washingtonexaminer.com
Former Goldman Sachs CEO rips Sanders after NH win: 'He'll ruin our economy' thehill.com
Democrats eye Nevada, South Carolina after Sanders wins in New Hampshire reuters.com
Bernie Sanders’ New Hampshire Victory Is a Big Deal for Socialism in America. Here's What To Know About the History of the Idea time.com
Analysis: Bernie Sanders' New Hampshire win ups pressure on moderates to coalesce pressdemocrat.com
Bernie Sanders lost among New Hampshire voters focused most on beating Trump New Hampshire shows Bernie Sanders still has an “electability” problem. vox.com
What changed for Sanders in New Hampshire since 2016? The electorate, for one. washingtonpost.com
Health Insurance Giant Reacts to Bernie Sanders' Slim Win finance.yahoo.com
Bernie Sanders claimed victory in the New Hampshire primary. Here's what that win means abc.net.au
Progressives to Voters Skeptical of Bernie Sanders: This 'Big Tent' Movement Is a Winning and Practical Choice — "Sanders is much more pragmatic and less ideological than his opponents would like to admit." commondreams.org
Bernie Sanders’ New Hampshire Win Was Fueled By the Sunrise Movement . Organizers with the Sunrise Movement and New Hampshire Youth Movement mobilized the youth vote in New Hampshire, helping Bernie Sanders win the primary. teenvogue.com
New Hampshire 2020: In Supreme Irony, the Horse Race Favors Bernie Sanders rollingstone.com
What revolution? New Hampshire results show Bernie Sanders base of support shrinking washingtonexaminer.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire primary; Buttigieg leads in delegate count fox8.com
The Night Socialism Went Mainstream - Bernie Sanders’s victory in the New Hampshire primary marks a turning point for Democratic politics. theatlantic.com
Elon Musk tweeted a bizarre 'Sonic'-themed meme of Bernie Sanders after he won the New Hampshire primary businessinsider.com
SC’s Joe Cunningham slams Bernie Sanders’ ‘socialism’ ahead of 2020 Democratic primary postandcourier.com
Investors bet on Sanders after New Hampshire win as Biden plummets: Smarkets finance.yahoo.com
Bernie Sanders and No One are tied for winning the Democratic Primary according to 538 projects.fivethirtyeight.com
'South Carolinians don’t want socialism': Democrat slams Bernie Sanders ahead of state primary washingtonexaminer.com
Sanders Would Bring the Center-Left’s Collapse to U.S.: Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic nomination wouldn’t be a freakish occurrence outside the experience of other advanced democracies. politico.com
‘Terrified of Bernie’: Sanders’ socialism spooks swing-district Democrats washingtontimes.com
AOC’s Speech Snub, ICE Remarks Rankle Bernie Sanders Campaign- AOC’s people were said to be unhappy at being called on the carpet and expressed concern over Sanders’s Joe Rogan embrace—but now AOC is back on the stump in New Hampshire. vanityfair.com
Bernie Sanders's New Hampshire Win Confirms He is the Front-runner, Like It or Not teenvogue.com
Why Does Mainstream Media Keep Attacking Bernie Sanders as He Wins? gq.com
Bernie Sanders on His Big Win in New Hampshire msnbc.com
submitted by PoliticsModeratorBot to politics [link] [comments]

I Watched Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (Season 3)

Welcome to my review/reactions for my first viewing of the third season of Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.!
Click these links if you'd like to read my thoughts on Season 1 and Season 2.
I've decided to try something new where I wrote down some thoughts during each episode. I included said thoughts on bullet points plus any others that I have during the writing of this post.
In addition to episode-by-episode thoughts, I will once again quote some things I said in my Season 2 post and update my feelings on them.
Finally, I'll do some quick thoughts on the characters as well as predictions for the next season!
Before we begin: I never saw the original Terminator.

"Laws of Nature" - Episode 1

Bullet points are real-time thoughts I had that were written as I was watching.
Looking back, this is a really good episode. Rosalind's introduction is good and we indeed got Civil War, just a bit differently than what I was expecting.

"Purpose in the Machine" - Episode 2

I'm so glad that Simmons returned this early. I was a little fearful that it'd be dragged out to about the 10th episode.

"A Wanted (Inhu)man" - Episode 3

Wow. Now I get it! Jemma was crying in the restaurant because of Will! AHHH!!!
Even after watching the rest of the season, the Daisy/Lincoln relationship is still weird. Well, was weird. I didn't feel that kind of chemistry between them. If I'm being honest, I see more of a spark between her and Fitz than I did with Lincoln.

"Devils You Know" - Episode 4

"4,722 Hours" - Episode 5

"Among Us Hide..." - Episode 6

"Chaos Theory" - Episode 7

"Many Heads, One Tale" - Episode 8

"Closure" - Episode 9

This was one of my favorite episodes thus far. Watching an angry and desperate Coulson is something to be seen.

"Maveth" - Episode 10

"Bouncing Back" - Episode 11

"The Inside Man" - Episode 12

"Parting Shot" - Episode 13

The bar scene at the end made me cry. That hit extremely hard. They get their happy ending. I hope they come back at some point, even if it's for a couple episodes in the final season. There's this paranoia in the back of my mind that they'll return as part of Hydra.

"Watchdogs" - Episode 14

"Spacetime" - Episode 15

The only time I've found Lincoln interesting is when he was at Afterlife. Everything since then hasn't had me interested in him.

"Paradise Lost" - Episode 16

"The Team" - Episode 17

"The Singularity" - Episode 18

"Failed Experiments" - Episode 19

"Emancipation" - Episode 20

"Absolution" - Episode 21

"Ascension" - Episode 22

That's my episode-by-episode thoughts on the season!
Now it's time to look at the ones from Season 2 and update them:
I repeat: THIS SHOW HAS GUTS. The way they've handled Ward is masterful, I must admit. During S1, I thought he was just on this arc of the isolated dude that learns to be one of the team and help other people. So, when the Hydra stuff went down, I would've picked anyone else to turn. I didn't expect the guy who's making progress on an arc like that to just shut that down and go the way he did.
I really liked when they brought Christian Ward in. The show did an excellent job at making me not know who to trust. Do I trust the guy that just betrayed his team and is known to be manipulative that insists that he's been telling the truth since being captured, or do I trust the older brother that I was just introduced to that happens to be a politician? I didn't know whether they were going to basically triple down on Ward being the bad guy or not. Then, it turns out that it was Christian that was responsible for the well....BUT THEN GRANT MURDERS HIM AND HIS PARENTS AFTERWARDS???
I can't remember the last time I saw a piece of media start a character arc, halt it, then not just double, but triple down on them being the bad guy. It's insane and so fascinating.
A moment I loved was when he's working with the team again and they're all on the bus. He's being all nostalgic, but everyone is smart enough to see right through it.
I repeat: The way they've handled Ward is masterful. It was a very smart decision to turn him into Hive halfway through. There's only so much you could do with a sociopathic, murderous lunatic character like Ward before he starts to no longer be surprising. Turning him into an ancient demon is a genius play.
Happy to report that Season 2 is indeed Skye's season and I now like her a lot.
I like how Season 3 didn't revolve around Daisy. She has an integral part, for sure, but it wasn't all about her. She's established, so not everything needs to be about her, and that's smart. It's about the team as a whole. I liked the character when she was on the field with Mack and also when she was swayed by Hive.
Another great showing from the Cavalry. Well, I shouldn't call her that.
I wish she would've supported Coulson a little bit more. I completely understand why she took the position she did, but she kind of left him out to dry while she knows that whatever he does, he does it with the best intentions.
The 'Melinda' episode was a highlight and they really had her shoot the girl. Man. This show has guts. AND SHE WAS TRYING TO HAVE KIDS. FUCK!!!!!
I still want her and Coulson to get together. The showrunners know it. They had them together in that dream Skye was having, but it looks like she's going back to Andrew? He's cool. I just thought that they were headed in another direction. They still could though...
...and that moment when May tricked Agent 33 to use her face so that Ward would shoot her? MAAAANNNN! That was some good stuff!
She was good in this season, but not featured as much as I would've liked. The Andrew stuff gave the character something to do, but other than that, she didn't do a ton. Her dynamic with Hunter was great though! I wanted her to have some involvement in Hive's end since she still hated Ward.
...and that moment when May kicks all of those guys' asses when they didn't take no for an answer? MAAAANNNN! That was some good stuff!
I wanted [Fitz and Simmons] to be together so much, but I totally get why they did what they did. It can't be that easy. The reveal in the early episodes that Simmons was just in Fitz's head got me. That was great.
However, what wasn't great was Simmons saying that she went undercover at Hydra and left Fitz not because he had changed, but because she didn't feel the same way for him as he did for her. That hurt hard coming off of that great scene in S1 when he finally tells her how he feels. The thing that I didn't like was that she said she didn't want to be with him, but by the end of this season, she wants to. I don't remember a definitive moment in this season that would've changed her mind. If there was, I didn't catch it or I interpreted it incorrectly.
No matter now because she died! Well, I doubt she did, but right now, she did. She disappeared. Poof. Sorry Fitz, I guess you should've taken her out of the alien room before asking her out.
I like how Simmons mirrored Fitz in the first half of the season. They both changed and now they get to be together. Good stuff!
Mike Peterson returns! Not a ton to do in this season, but a welcomed inclusion. I'm still waiting for him to become a real agent and part of the team.
Mike Peterson doesn't return! He'll be back in Season 4...hopefully!
[Maria Hill] didn't get a lot to do in this season either. It was nice to see her, but you know, she didn't do anything.
I have a feeling that she won't be returning...
[Lady Sif] was a lot of fun this time around, too! I hope she has an episode each season.
I have a feeling that she won't be returning...
[Simmons] REALLY TRIED TO MURDER WARD!
Good for her! I'm guessing we're building up to a tense scene with her and Fitz where they have to kill someone. Fitz isn't able to do it, but Jemma is. Typically, they'd already be in a relationship at that point and her killing someone would make him question the person she'd become. However, I've learned just by these two seasons that this show is anything but typical.
SIMMONS REALLY SHOT WARD! Well, Hive!
My prediction didn't come true at all and I'm happy about that. She shot Hive, but Fitz wasn't anywhere near them.
So, Ward's being pushed to run Hydra, huh? Should've seen it coming, that sick son of a bitch. He keeps living! It doesn't matter what happens! He gets shot several times, but then this SIMP Agent 33 saves him. How is she repaid? He shot and killed her. Damn, sucks to be a simp. The actress did a great job though!
He kept living! Even being killed on a distant planet, he finds his way back! Although, I think he's actually done though. Props to the actor that plays him. What a great gig to have and a performance to, well, perform! A notable performance was when Mack and company blast him with those lights and he's saying all those lines from past characters.
Let's do some quick hits on the characters:
Finally, let's go over my predictions for this season and also what I think will happen in Season 4:
1) May will start to love life out of the organization and choose not to come back...that is until someone is about to get killed in a big mission about halfway through the season when she shows up for the save.
2) Fitz will figure out how to save Simmons from the Monolith. However, when she returns, she is changed, further delaying she and Fitz starting a relationship.
3) After the team learns of Ward's new position at Hydra, Coulson's sights are set on another objective. However, Skye splits from them to go find Ward and the two have a showdown. It likely ends with Ward escaping BECAUSE HE ALWAYS FINDS A WAY OUT.
1) I did not foresee Hunter coming to recruit her to kill Ward, and yet, it made so much sense.
2) Damn, it hurt that I was so right on the Fitz one. I didn't think she'd be changed that way though.
3) It's hilarious how wrong I was on that last one. Every part of it was wrong. Coulson's sights aren't set on something else, his only goal becomes to kill Ward. Skye does split from the team, but not to have a showdown with Ward, but to join Hive! What?!
Here are my predictions for Season 4:
  1. During the six months, Daisy has been building up her own team of Inhumans.
  2. Melinda is the new Director. However, as a crazy one, I'd also say that it could be Maria Hill, too.
  3. The first half of the season will be S.H.I.E.L.D. vs. Daisy's team. However, Hydra begins to creep back up, possibly with a way to "cure" the Inhumans. That's when Daisy comes back to the team for help.
If you have any questions about specific moments or characters, I'd be happy to comply!
Time to hope into Season 4! I hope my compliance will be rewarded...
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Expect Wall Street stock market fireworks in the next few months.

Here's how to survive:
Be prepared when it happens. Enjoy reading the article.

Paul La Monica CNN News 6/26/2020
New York (CNN Business)The late spring and summer is supposed to be a sleepy time for the stock market. But this is shaping up to be an atypical summer in a year that has been anything but normal.
Sell in May? That didn't work as the S&P 500 rose about 4.5% following a nearly 13% surge in April. June swoon? Not so much either. The Dow and S&P 500 are flat this month -- despite the market plunge on June 11 and a lot more volatility.Stocks fell sharply Friday following weak results from Dow component Nike (NKE), concerns about the latest bank stress tests and growing fears of a second wave of Covid-19 cases.But the tech-heavy Nasdaq has still gained more than 3% in June. And for the full second quarter, the S&P 500 has surged 17%, making this the best three-month performance for the stock market since the fourth quarter of 1998.
"There are some potential things that are worrisome. In many ways we are going to be living from earnings season to earnings season," said David Russell, vice president of market intelligence with TradeStation.

Earnings stink and risky stocks pop, but don't fight the Fed

"There will be a lot lot of difficulty predicting what earnings are going to be like with a disruption of this magnitude," Russell said.There are also signs of speculative froth in the market. Bankrupt stocks have inexplicably soared as of late. So have IPOs and blank check special purpose acquisition companies like Virgin Galactic (SPCE), DraftKings and electric truck maker Nikola.But stimulus from the Federal Reserve isn't going away anytime soon. The central bank will almost certainly keep rates at zero for years and it is pumping out trillions of dollars into the economy through various lending programs."Don't fight the Fed" is a popular saying on Wall Street. Is it really that simple? It just might be."Markets are clearly responding to the significant stimulus in the US and throughout the world," said Kent Insley, chief investment officer with Tiedemann Advisors. Insley told CNN Business that the massive stimulus from the Fed as well as various programs from Congress should help the market for the foreseeable future. Cheap money will push investors into riskier stocks over Treasuries, which now yield next to nothing.📷Biotech IPOs are booming -- but it's not all about Covid-19"lt may be a low growth environment but rates are going to remain low. Stocks still look more attractive over the long term compared to bonds," Insley said.He added that investors should focus on companies with solid balance sheets that can continue to post decent growth rates. And he said that investors don't have to limit themselves to big tech stocks -- the so-called FAANGs and Microsoft (MSFT).

Betting on an eventual rebound

Others are also dismissing concerns about weak profits."In the grand scheme of things, one year of earnings are not that meaningful for the valuation of a company unless there is a major liquidity issue," said Sam Hendel, president of Levin Easterly Partners.Hendel said he is worried about heavily indebted energy firms and struggling travel and leisure companies. But he added that firms in other parts of the market, most notably tech, consumer staples and health care, have the "ballast to withstand an economic contraction."He favors companies like broadband and media giant Comcast (CMCSA), packaged food and beverage firms Treehouse (THS), Post Holdings (POST) and Primo Water (PRMW) and health care companies Pfizer (PFE) and Quest Diagnostics (DGX).Hendel also thinks it's reasonable to think that a major biotech or pharma company will come up with a viable coronavirus treatment sooner rather than later. That could further boost health care stocks."We're not trying to call the bottom on Covid-19, but we hope and pray for a vaccine coming as well," he said. "What 9/11 was for the defense sector, Covid-19 is for health care."More broadly, there are still hopes that stocks won't fall back into a bear market.Merger activity is slowly starting to pick up as companies grow a little more confident that the Fed and Congress will continue to be there as a backstop to keep the economy from sliding further.Ted Swimmer, head of capital markets with Citizens Bank, said that over the past two months, his firm has been positively surprised by the number of companies issuing new capital and talking about plans to grow again."The government is providing so much support, so I'd be surprised if the market touches the March lows again," he said.
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DD: Playing this weeks congressional hearings with J. Powell (SPY, VXX)

Mr. Printer goes to Washington (how to play the 6/16 and 6/17 congressional finance hearings)
edit: typos and clarifications at the bottom.
UPDATE: VXX is BOOMING in futures trading, and if it hold the prediction of a down day tomorrow will produce a disgusting amount of tendies. But I think the hearings are a part of a larger indicator around Fed Repo scheduling rates and activity. I'm almost done researching and will post DD in an hour if it checks out like it looks it will
UPDATE: VXX is coming back back to life. WSJ Headline after the hearing Powell Says Economic Gains Are at Risk if Stimulus Measures End Prematurely https://www.wsj.com/articles/lawmakers-to-press-powell-on-additional-relief-measures-11592386200 -what does the Republican senate and the President want to do? End relief measures for the unemployed. What does this cause? Market uncertainty.Who told you not to fret during the hearing? Ya boy.
UPDATE: The Dems are seriously asking softball questions and sucking him off, its embarassing. BUT VXX is making a comeback as it has been a choppy session during Look for a comeback here at the end of the hearing leading into power hour , either way hold overnight as the market gets scared from an inexplicable and uneven session for SPY
UPDATE: closing out my day with UAL 39 6/19p, rebuying into VXX tomorrow morning just before the hearing after morning pump drops it from an overnight increase.
UPDATE: 2-330 predicted spy pump in progress. Excellent 😈 the plan is running smoothly
UPDATE: people are asking alot of questions about my UALp so I'll probably throw a quick DD up during the coming afternoon rally
UPDATE: SPY afternoon rally will be pretty mega I think with a VXX rise overnight, correction up in the morning, and big boy dip during tomorrow's hearing.
UPDATE: 6/16 post hearing: My VXX prediction, and hopefully your tends roasted during that. There will now be SPY dip, rally, dip, rally. UALp 619p and 6/26p are an excellent tendie play for TODAY especially if they manage to hit 6 or 7% up in the next two hours. Buy nputs ow and be patient if a small UAL rally comes in the afternoon, or wait to see if they have a bump up in the next hour or two for maximum tendage through Friday.
UPDATE 6/16 open: markets up BIGLY. Give the speech about ten minutes and then keep any eye on VXX for its climb
UPDATE 6/16 Hearing: VXX is starting it's climb as I predicted.
Hearing: https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/06/08/2020/the-semiannual-monetary-policy-report-to-the-congress
The Backstory and some FAX:
So on June 10th, Jerome spoke for about an hour. Nothing to write home about as he was just largely keeping commitments to a liberal fiscal policy, keeping interest rates slashed through 2022—typical “I’ll do whatever it takes” type shit. Should’ve been a giant bull flag, right?
Wrong. Wrong as a bear celebrating last night before going to bed.
The news largely ran headlines about his “dire warnings” and such—I’ve read the transcript, this did not happen. (If you nerds want to read it: https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacentefiles/FOMCpresconf20200610.pdf ) News cycle runs through the afternoon into the evening, coupled with some lukewarm posts about a coming second wave. Everyone took one quote where he said long road ahead and ran it.
Why? I am an independent, and I am black, so I don’t love DT. That said, I’m a realist and like to play it fair. I think anybody on either side can acknowledge news media has a bias, and they are working overtime to ensure that Trump looks bad—even at the expense of the economy, because it’s his ace in the hole. They largely generate headlines to scare boomers out their positions and it works.
Fearmongering in media takes over Wednesday night, and Thursday 6/11 happens. SPY drops 5.7%, VIXX goes up 17%. Chicken littles, sad bulls, aroused bears--the speculative market is a zoo of emotion.
Then Friday 6/12 comes, we open way the fuck down before the Fed repo schedule liquidations kick in and MM go full throttle. (Fed schedule posts here, that’s right junior, the PAUMP is a timed mechanism: https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details )
What’s the big deal about Friday? Trump speaks on race, and it is an absolute shitshow during. SPY drops 3 and a half percent to the perceived bottom, 298. Shortly after, 2 pm pump takes over and news cycle for the weekend is about the dramatic turnaround, sprinkled in with some liberal media coronavirus part 2 pump. What’s crucial here is that shit was up and down right before Trump spoke—PEOPLE WERE WAITING TO HEAR WHAT AUTHORITY WOULD SAY because the market was confusing and the news was negative. Then when Trump got on the tv it was all systems go on a red hour.
So fucking what?
Why does this matter? There are not that many things happening at once that should directly affect our market aside from riots, corona, earnings, and bubble fears. That shit was all priced in during the Floyd riots. The only outlier is news that runs when JPow or Donnie Pump speak. It has a direct impact on the market, particularly in the moment and about a day out in a trailer affect.
We’ve been gifted with concurrent Jerome speaking engagements and a confused market this week, simultaneously. Jerome speaks at 10 am tomorrow to the Senate Finance Committee—this is a GREAT litmus—the Republican led senate committee will give him softball questions because they want continued brrrr. If SPY dips during this, load on the PUTS for 6/19—6/17 if you’re feeling freak nasty. Why?
The hearing on Wednesday at NOON is with the Democratic House Financial Services Committee. It is chaired by Maxine fucking Waters—these people hate Trump with all their soul, and more importantly they are going to attack attack attack fed policy that has stocks at an all time high while us minorities are getting double cocked by Covid that kills us more easily because of preexisting conditions AND I can’t breath shit.
Tomorrow morning, at 11 am, we will know everything we need to know about what the rest of the week will be like in the markets.
IF SPY dips during, and immediately after, Jerome Speaks tomorrow
Tuesday 6/16 buy
SPY 6/17p
VXX 6/19c
Conversely, IF the market doesn’t respond much at all, on TUESDAY buy:
VXX 6/19c EOD Tuesday and dump on Wednesday 6/17 before EOD ** CLARIFICATION: either way it’s going red when he speaks. But if it’s mild and limited to ONLY during the hearing on Tuesday, the downside on Wednesday will be sizeable but recover— if Tuesday’s hearing dip isn’t too bad it’ll be more like Friday’s bounce back, if it is a slaughter it’ll be more like Thursday’s full blown crash. im saying it’ll tell you whether to play Wednesday as a quick but deep dip, or a full blown correction day** **
If SOMEHOW the pump conspiracy makes shit GREEN when he speaks Tuesday load up on UAL 6/19 puts (they went too far too fast the past week and do their routine weekly correction Thursday-Friday)**
TLDR: People give a lot of a shit what the media tells them to do when the market is at a tipping point like the past week, and the media gets the fodder from Jerome. If Tuesday’s lightweight hearing with the fed friendly Republican senate causes a sizable downswing, even temporarily, bet the farm on VXX and SPYp because the democratic house hearing Wednesday will be a bloodbath. If Tuesday goes smooth, take advantage with a short window of VXX for Wednesday temporary drop from hearing.
submitted by MiltDavis to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

[DD] All aboard AXDX!

[DD] All aboard AXDX!
This is my first DD. I feel really good about it. I’m just your average investotradegambler, but do like to dig deep, and think I found something here. Let's go.
TL;DR
Buy AXDX calls. July/Aug/Nov exp. 15-20 strikes. Shoot for 25 for max tendies.
Go long AXDX shares on margin, too.
Why?
  • Experienced investor with an awesome track record of winning as a shareholder (and fighting for shareholder value) recently showed showing extreme confidence in the company ($25MM buy)
  • They are gonna get $ from COVID testing revenues incoming which were not expected in their business plans at all (and this is a relatively low rev company, so the boost will look great)
  • EUA for the tests < 2 weeks away from being announced - we have evidence from other applications that it should be any time now
  • Besides all that, everything on track with their normal core business and it shouldn't be much affected by COVD
Now, for the real story...
It started with a LARGE buy that caught my eye
Actually, a series of buys from Jack Schuler. Schuler has spent over 30 years in the pharmaceutical industry, including having served as President and Chief Operating Officer of Abbott Laboratories. Today, Mr. Schuler serves on the board of directors for several companies, including Accelerate Diagnostics, Quidel Corporation and Biodesix, Inc.
I'll do the math for you: that's $26.7MM of stock purchased during this dip.
OK, so insider sales don't mean everything? We don't panic when we see selling because sometimes people just need to cash out. So we cannot just assume this means anything. Can we?
Looking back at Jack's buying history - this was a v big buy for Jack
Looking back, Schuler is quite active in investing in his companies. But it's not always buys, he does sell. And if you look further back, you actually see some interesting things.
Starting with AXDX: Before the buys shown above, the last time Jack made a slew of purchases was between Aug 11 2017 and May 15 2018 when he purchased $29MM total. Note that this was over the course of a year for an average price of about $20 a share. Prior to those buys, you have to go back to Jan 2017 before he made any other bets.
In other words, Jack just bought as much stock in the last few months than he'd bought in the previous few years.
So it seems like Jack feels really good about buying this dip. Is that enough? Probably... but let's keep going.
Jack has been around the block - and Jack likes winning (Jack gets top $ for Ventana)
He's been quite successful in being an activist that fights for his shareholders. That is a great thing if you are in investor. I managed to stumble across this gem: Jack Schuler historical record of 'dirty tricks' in business. It's truly amazing. It's some dude's salty manifesto about how Jack S is a actually just a bad ass investor.
Back in 2007, Roche wanted to buy Ventana who Jack was an investor in. He has big problems with the initial price that was offered and slowed down the deal. Here's what he said:
"This is about stockholder value," said Ventana chairman Jack Schuler. "Simply put, we believe that Roche is trying to capture value for its stockholders that rightly belongs to Ventana's stockholders." Ironically, as Roche was hailing its offer as a 44% premium on Ventana's stock value of $51.95 on June 22, 2007 (the last trading day before Roche submitted its bid to Ventana), the stock has steadily risen to a recent close of more than $83.
Preach! He's not playing dirty tricks. He wants shareholder value. What's wrong with that? Long story short, the deal was hung up because Jack needed all of his tendies. It eventually went through at a 19.3% premium to Roche's initial offer on June 27, 2007. Well done, Jack! I'd certainly want him to negotiate 20% more for my shares.
Turns out Jack has a history of winning - Jack wins with Stericycle, Medtronic, and more
Digging deeper, Jack (and John Patience, the same one from the screenshot below) did the same trick with Stericycle. The buys referenced in this article were unloaded 4-5 years later for 80-100% profits.
He also did it with Medtronic in 2010. He picked up 30,000 shares at an average price of $36.93 each on June 25. Medtronic is at $93 today ($115 pre-covid) and pays a dividend. That ones seems to have worked out too.
He has other winners too. Jack. Is. A. Winner.
Is that enough?
Honestly, for you degens, yeah it should be. Jack has a strong track record. He thinks $10 is way too cheap, so he just bought an assload. Also, we know he doesn't hate money. A man like that never starts to hate money.
Did I say a COVID tailwind? Yup.
Did I mention that they have a COVID tailwind? I shit you not. It keeps getting better. You know the serology tests that determine if you've had CV? That test for antibodies? Well, turns out AXDX was perfectly set up to capitalize because they can make these. And they are planning to do so!
On top of a slow and steady growth of sales of medical devices, which is AXDX's core business, AXDX can monetize on these tests which will be really important in the coming year as the world learns how to live with COVID (knowing who has had the disease is very important). From the CEO on the earnings call in May:
Lastly, through a recently signed collaboration agreement with BioCheck Ltd, we have begun commercializing the MS-FAST fully automated chemiluminescence immunoassay analyzer and SARS-COV-2 test for the detection of IgG and IgM. This partnership has the potential to provide both an avenue to reengage prospective customers on Pheno as well as a near-term revenue uplift. The performance data for these assays are best-in-class with sensitivity and specificity estimated as exceeding 95% for both assays based on over 100 samples collected at the source of the pandemic, Wuhan, China. Since announcing the partnership on April 15, we have received several indications of interest across the global business.
We are continuing to work with the FDA on our emergency use authorization for commercialization in the U.S., and we have taken initial orders in EMEA. While we are tremendously excited about this collaboration agreement and are eager to play a role in fighting this pandemic, it remains too early to estimate the revenue potential of this opportunity. In my 30 years in diagnostics, I have never experienced a period of such profound disruption. However, with this disruption comes the creation of new opportunities, the near-term impact from this pandemic to accelerate and most other healthcare companies is significant while at the same time shining a brighter light on the value of rapid diagnostics for infectious disease.
Awesome! So, we are stumbling into quite a bit revenue we were not expecting. That's dope. More good news? Yup. The CEO references that their core product (Pheno) now has advantages due to COVID that will help future sales:
And a big part of this will be, in my opinion, will be around how do you better manage infectious disease crises, how do you better manage secondary infections, how do you better manage bed utilization and staff utilization? And those are all things that Pheno directly addresses. I mean Pheno gets patients on optimal therapy much, much quicker, two, three days quicker, and get patients out of the hospital two to five days quicker in some cases. And so with that, I mean, as healthcare providers look at these things, I mean, we fully expect them to be really having a heightened sense of interest in what we're doing in this space.
Is now the time?
I think so. First, let's check AXDX over the past 5 years:
https://preview.redd.it/0o2vw40m3j851.png?width=2734&format=png&auto=webp&s=6bd6870849fbd180cae421c934b8c6f509301dfb
In summary:
  • Lots of ups and down, but pretty consistently shoots above $20 (which will make us tendies)
  • In 2019 (pre-covid), it easily sat in the $18-$22 range.
  • We closed at $15.86 today after touching $17s yesterday and this morning. Profit raking before the weekend in the Hamptons. I'm not worried.
  • Looking back in the news on AXDX, I see no cause for concern. This is just a medical device company that's finally starting to see revenue.
You may notice the spike at the end of the chart...
Let's zoom in to the last three months - a recent run up and dip offer a chance to buy
https://preview.redd.it/fiy5eew34j851.png?width=3356&format=png&auto=webp&s=a868130d3e1a2449542e6822029ece6603088f4e
In the past month:
  • I suspect that others noticed what I have noticed, so it's been up up an away.
  • This week was especially bonkers. Up 5-10% most days. Never seen action like it.
  • But notice that today was a BIG DOWN day after 6 in a row up. It had to cool off. Maybe it cools off more Monday...? It will have reasons to go up soon that have not yet materialized (more below)
  • I see no reason why we wouldn't be headed back to ranges that it was safely in last year... especially with the tailwinds due to testing revenue, Jack S's confidence, and the recovery of markets (though AXDX is hardly affected by the shutdown).
Buy the dip, before the EUA approval!
Remember those serology tests? AXDX is within weeks, by my estimate, of getting those approved for use. What pharma company doesn't love a nice FDA approval pop?
So when will it happen? Some digging: if you check here, you can see that the FDA is pumping out these approvals.
Beckman Coulter was a recent company to get the approval, this Monday on June 29, to deliver 30MM tests a month. If you check back on their press releases, they were chirping about this in late April. So this process for them took ~2 months.
Going back to AXDX's last conference call (May 8), we can read between the lines:
We recently filed for FDA emergency use authorization for our Pheno respiratory test kit, positioning its benefits for ventilated COVID-19 patients. If approved, this authorization will provide accelerate an avenue to reengage prospective and current customers, obtain useful analytical and clinical data on this new test and help some affected patients.
And in the Q+A:
We have an EUA submitted, as I mentioned, for IgG and IgM combo test. We're also going to be submitting an EUA for individual tests for both IgG and IgM over the next couple of days. The FDA has already come back to us with a few pieces of data that we need to follow up on which is pretty standard.
And we're working on that now. And in addition to that, I would say that we are submitting for a 510(k) for the MS-FAST instrument, and we're working on that currently as well with the consultant. Accelerate is the authorized legal agent for BioCheck. And so we're basically spearheading all of the dialogue between the FDA and this opportunity which is a good thing because of the vast experience we have with the FDA already.
And so our expectation is, again I guess to be clear, there's been no setback at all relative to our submission. And the new guidance that has come out. And then the last thing I would say is the performance data that we have already submitted with the FDA is excellent data. And it already meets the requirements that they have called out.
Our sensitivity and specificity for both the IgG and IgM test or are both very solid. And again, we're continuing to work with the FDA and hope to hear some positive outcomes here over the next couple of weeks.
By the looks of it, from the statements and how press released line up, AXDX was also writing press releases in April about this, they applied to the FDA in late April or early May. Given that Beckman Coulter's process took about 2 months... I think we could be very very close to an announcement, and I'd certainly expect it before 7/17 (cough - calls - cough). [I checked a few other EUA timelines, and ~2 months is about right]
That's it. What else do you need? Go buy some AXDX because:
  • Experienced investor with an awesome track record of winning as a shareholder (and fighting for shareholder value) recently showed showing extreme confidence in the company ($25MM buy)
  • They are gonna get $ from COVID testing revenues incoming which were not expected in their business plans at all (and this is a relatively low rev company, so the boost will look great)
  • EUA for the tests < 2 weeks away from being announced - we have evidence from other applications that it should be any time now
  • Besides all that, everything on track with their normal core business and it shouldn't be much affected by COVD
What's not to like?
My positions
Jacked to the tits on 10, 12.5, 15, 17.5, and 20 calls expiring in July, Aug, and Nov. Probably $25k across those. Then another $25k or so of shares. I think I'm just over $50k invested.
submitted by hammerfrog to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy
Alright CYKAS, Drill Sgt. Retarded TQQQ Burry is in the house. Listen up, I'm gonna train yo monkey asses to make some motherfucking money.

“Reeee can’t read, strike?” - random_wsb_autist
Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this:
gainz, bitch


Why am I telling you this?
Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-are-crushing-hedge-funds-again

That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen.
So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you).
If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep.
This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first.

THE RULES:
  1. Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
  2. Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
  3. Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
  4. This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.

This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
  • Are you new to trading?
  • Are you unable to manage your own positions?
  • Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
  • Do you think Delta is just an airline?
  • Do you buy high & sell low?
  • Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
  • Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
  • Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
  • Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
  • If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
  • Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
  • Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?
Well I have just the thing for you!


Table of Contents:
I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
IV. Busting your retarded myths
V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo
VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers


Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
"hurr durr OP retarded, OP sell puts" - random_wsb_autist
Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect?
Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
  1. 28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
  2. 3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
  3. 3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
  4. 3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”
And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play.
Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it.
I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is?
Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5:
How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?"
"By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes!
"According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."

On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences.
This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin."
I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."
Ahahaha, fuckstick bought TQQQ at $70, cuz that's what you do after a random 5-sigma move, right? How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Don't lie, I see you buying 3/5 on this TQQQ chart:
https://preview.redd.it/9ks35zdla5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c90d08494c52a1b874575ee233624e61ac27620
Meanwhile, on 3/3, I answered the question "Where do you see this ending up at in the next couple weeks? I have 3/20s" with "under 30 imo".

Well good fucking job, because a week later on 3/11, TQQQ closed at $61, and it kept going.
Nomura: Market staring into the abyss
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).
Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:

"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? "
"While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it."
"So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."
Good job, fuckfaces. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. I see you buying on this chart:
https://preview.redd.it/s9344geza5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebaef4b1414d901e6dafe354206ba39eb03cb199
Well guess what, by 3/18, a week later, we did get another 5 standard deviation move. TQQQ bottomed on 3/18 at $32.73. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. 12 standard deviations. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is.
https://preview.redd.it/luz0s3kbb5151.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=7542973d56c42e13efd3502331ac6cc5aea42630
"Hurr durr you said it's going to 0, so you're retarded because it didn't go to 0" - random_wsb_autist
Yeah, fuckface, because the Fed bailed ‘em out. Remember the $150b “overnight repo” bazooka on 3/17? That’s what that was, a bailout. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel. Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books.

https://preview.redd.it/8fqvt37ama151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b06ee5101685c5274c6641a62ee9eb1a2a3f3ee


Read:
https://dealbreaker.com/2020/01/griffin-no-show-at-white-house
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/bank-ceos-convene-in-washington-with-president-trump-on-coronavirus.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914736/market-makers--didn-t-show-up-for-work--macro-risk-ceo-says-914736.html
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/finance-banking/chicago-trading-firms-seek-more-capital
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/did-non-qm-just-disappear-from-the-market/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/bruised-hedge-funds-ask-clients-for-fresh-cash-to-buy-the-dip
https://fin24.com/Markets/Bonds/rand-bonds-rally-after-reserve-bank-intervention-20200320

Yup, everyone got clapped on their stupidly leveraged derivatives books. It seems Citadel is “too big to fail”. On 3/18, the payout on 3/20 TQQQ puts alone if it went to 0 was $468m. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. I’d bet my ass Citadel was on the hook for a big chunk of those. And that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other blown derivative trades out there.

https://preview.redd.it/9ww27p2qb5151.png?width=2485&format=png&auto=webp&s=78f24265f3ea08fdbb37a4325f15ad9b61b0c694
Y’all still did good, 3/20 closed at $35. That’s $161m/$468m payoff just there. I even called you the bottom on 3/17, when I saw that bailout:

"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago
Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts"
"dlkdev
Scratch that, helicopter money is here."
"AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago
What does that mean?"
"It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."

"hurr durr, it went lower on 3/18 so 3/17 wasn't the bottom" - random_wsb_autist
Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it.
Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags.
Video of Billy & the Fed train

Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”
https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5
Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp.

Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS

RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play.
I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply:

Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2.
If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats.

You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later.

RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays.

RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to
RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains.
RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS:
So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that.
RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS:
Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this:

Example 1:
Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it.

https://preview.redd.it/gq938ty8e5151.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=734ab7ed517f0e6822bfaaed5765d1272de398d1
Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads)
Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4
Wrong fuckface. You see the max pain at SPX 2975 & OPEX pin coming? Sell them some calls or puts (or spreads).

https://preview.redd.it/7nv23fr41a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14a8879c975646ffbfe2942ca1982bfabfcf90df
Sold 9x5/20 SPX [email protected], bam +$6,390. Still wanna pin? Well have some 80x5/22 TQQQ $80cs, bam anotha +$14,700.

https://preview.redd.it/1iqtpmc71a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df9b954131b0877f4acc43038b4a5a4acf544237
+$21,090 - $10,824 = +$10,266 => Turned that shit into a +94.85% gain.

.cscqb4 rn

You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit.

Example 2:

5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play.

Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750.
Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How?
I have:
47x 2960 calls
-47x 2955 calls

Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have?

46x 2955/2960 bear calls
1x 2960 long call

So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there.
Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad.
And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position.

RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again.


Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS

MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP

Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you!
Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.

What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables.

Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005.

Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you.


Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR:
2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case)

So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009
After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070
End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392

Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk

2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069
2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194
2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897


Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1263066368414568448

That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively.

Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage.

There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b).

Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway.

$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000.

What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000

And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ.

Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425

$100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b
$100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b
$100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b
$100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b

That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable.

In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK

My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular.
And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.

If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox.

If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets.
And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN".

MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET

On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200."
Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too?
Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:

  • ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
  • Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
  • Index rebalancing flows
  • Buyback flows
  • 401k passive flows
  • Carry trade flows
  • Tax day flows
  • Flows of people front-running the flows

And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to

MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER

Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit:

On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.

"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist

Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31.

So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you:
Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines.

https://preview.redd.it/7agm171eh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94b90dcd634c8dc688925585bf0a02c3299f71b
Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here:

https://preview.redd.it/i1kdp3cgh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1e086e9217846547efd3b6c5249f4a7ebe6d9e
In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again.

https://preview.redd.it/fsyhenckh5151.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=03200e10b008257ae15d40b474c4cf4d8c23670f
Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means.
The reversal:
https://preview.redd.it/4xe97l0oh5151.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=07aaa93f6b1d8f542101e40e431edccbc109918f
https://preview.redd.it/v6i0pdmoh5151.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d5589961db2f978d4d582e6d7c58a85f6305f9
But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well.
https://preview.redd.it/40j53u8th5151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe39ab51321d0f98149d33e33253e69f96c48e23
Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you.
https://preview.redd.it/43lvafhvh5151.png?width=3705&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef53283cbc0fb97f71c1ba935c0bd747809636e
And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities.

Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG.
Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid.
Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke.
Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week).
And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage.
Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT!
And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do.
Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now.
Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M
And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.”

Don’t baghold!
Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit.
And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc.
And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now.
The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake.
And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing.
Got it? Good.
You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB.

Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO
Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO:

STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka.
STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT.
STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10.
STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5.
STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay.


Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?

  1. Proshares is dogshit. If you don't understand the point in my last post, do this: download https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-historical_nav.csv and https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-psdlyhld.csv. Easier to see than with TQQQ. AUM: 1,174,940,072. Add up the value of all the t-bills = 1,686,478,417.49 and "Net other assets / cash". It should equal the AUM, but you get 2,861,340,576. Why? Because that line should read: NET CASH = -$511,538,344.85
  2. Major index rebalancing June 22.
  3. Watch the violent forex moves.
  4. 6/25 will be red. Don't ask, play a spread, bag a 2x-er.
  5. 6/19 will be red.
  6. Not settled yet, but a good chance 5/28 is red.
  7. Front run the rebalance. Front-run the front-runners of the rebalance too. TQQQ puts.
  8. Major retard flow in financials yesterday. Downward pressure now. GS 180 next weeks looks good.
  9. Buy leaps puts on dogshit bond ETFs (check holdings for dogshit)
  10. Buy TLT 1/15/2021 $85ps for cheap, sell over $1 when the Fed stops the ass rape, rinse and repeat
  11. TQQQ flow looks good:
https://preview.redd.it/untvykuxea151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0a38c0acb088ebff689d043e48466eb76d38e2f

Good luck. Dr. Retard TQQQ Burry out.
submitted by dlkdev to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Clubhouse Games: 34 Frustrations

The more I play Clubhouse Games the more annoyed I get over how phoned-in it is. It looks great but I’d rather have worse graphics if it meant better gameplay.
I have about 80 hours in the game so far. I’ve played everything at least a few times: online and not, with friends or strangers. At a certain point, the novelty of the game wears off and your left with something incredibly subpar. Nothing about this game really feels broken but nothing feels incredibly polished either (except for the graphics but they’ve even managed to mess those up). I know I’m about to list off a bunch of minor annoyances but I don’t think expecting a first party Nintendo game to feel like it’s worth $40 is too much to ask.
I am interested in people’s opinions so I’ll try to keep things organized.
Clubhouse Games
  1. There are no global options whatsoever, and individual game options need to be set and reset often. You can’t change the volume for sound effects or music, you can’t turn the announcer off. It’d be nice to be able to disable intros, set all games to the hardest difficulty, or set favorites. Things like that wouldn’t be all that difficult to put in and would only make the experience better for everybody.
Single System
  1. Why does the game start with the worst possible UI option? Unless you love mancala, having games set up in a line isn’t useful (and even then you may want to play something else from time to time). You have to press X to change the menu every single time. The line is a cool presentation but it shouldn’t be the default.
  2. There is no way to sort games. They are not arranged in any particular order. It’d be cool if they were organized alphabetically or by age or region or players or game type but instead we get them loosely thrown together.
  3. Just to get this out the way now, there are not enough games for 3 or 4 people, despite a lot of these being games that support that many players.
Dots and Boxes
  1. Full analogue control is unnecessary. There should be the option to use the D pad to navigate the grid. Also this is an incredibly bare game for what is essentially color and paper. Being able to change the size and shape of the play space would be nice, as would different visual options.
Yacht Dice
  1. Mostly fine, the fact that it doesn’t snap to the category with the most points is weird.
Hex
  1. Same aesthetic complaint as D&B. Otherwise it’s fine and the grid based movement feels way better.
Hare and Hounds
  1. Why is there no option to randomize which player is which? That’s literally what happens online.
Chinese Checkers / Ludo
  1. Why can’t you pick your own color?
Shogi / Mini Shogi / Hanafuda
  1. Why aren’t Global and Classic purely cosmetic? Like, why do both players have to use the same setting? Just make it so each player can use the version they’re most comfortable with in the same game. This is a bigger problem online where they’re considered two different games.
Last Card
  1. The option to draw 1, or draw until you have a matching card should be in here, which is a pretty common house rule.
  2. Where you sit at the table doesn’t change nor can you can’t change the total number of players (uno itself can support up to 10 people). This makes friend matches somewhat boring because you’re always seated next to them.
  3. Declaring last card and playing the selected card should be the same action. It’s not like people still wouldn’t mess it up.
Blackjack
  1. This game is broken. You can go negative, which means there’s no incentive to place a reasonable bet. Why not just start the player with 500 if they can rack up debt? This is especially strange because in Texas you lose if you run out of money.
Texas Hold ‘em
  1. The betting system is better but it’s not great. Why can’t we choose how much we want to bet?
President
  1. Are five rounds necessary? The only thing that matters is who wins the last game so why not have a one round option?
Speed
  1. The selection mechanic doesn’t make sense and doesn’t always cooperate, which is problematic for such a high intensity game. Why not map the four cards to buttons and put the deck selection on the triggers?
Matching
  1. Same as #5. There’s no advantage to full analogue controls here.
Takoyaki
  1. Combos should snap to the appropriate card automatically. You get nothing from having to cycle through to each card.
Pig’s Tail
  1. Analogue makes a little more sense here but digital should still be an option (or at least give us cursor sensitivity options).
Golf
  1. A practice mode would be nice, or the option to undo your last stroke at least.
  2. Unlike other golf games, your ball wont bounce across the hole if you putt too hard. This makes the final putt unexiting and almost useless.
  3. It’s not clear how high your shot arcs in relation to the rest of the field.
Billiards
  1. Why does aiming and shooting suck so hard? Why not map aim to the shoulder buttons and give us a power meter like Carrom?
Bowling / Darts
  1. Why aren’t more than 2 players supported? These are the party games.
Toy Curling
  1. Worse than pool in that aiming and power are the same action. Makes the game imprecise.
  2. We don’t need to be reminded how many shots are left every turn. “Last three” is sufficient.
Toy Baseball
  1. I have never had a successful match with this game against another person. Maybe it’s just me but the controls don’t work when playing against a human who will use every trick under the sun to strike you out. They should’ve just put NES or Wii baseball here.
Slot Cars
  1. Analogue sticks are not precise. I get why they’re here but buttons or even RC cars like in Mario Odyssey would feel better.
Fishing
  1. Have we learned nothing from Mario Party or Smash 3DS? Turning the stick in a circle like that isn’t fun or comfortable and I don’t want to give my joy con a reason to start drifting again.
Shooting
  1. Also broken. The fact that there’s nothing stopping you from just spamming shot takes any fun or challenge out of the game once you play against other people. Even limited ammo would work here.
Piano
  1. A wasted opportunity. Why aren’t any keys mapped to buttons?
Online
  1. This game, like the NSO libraries, runs poorly for no reason. I have a friend in Australia (which has a poor internet infrastructure). We can play more demanding games like Splatoon and Minecraft just fine but this online is almost unplayable.
  2. Players with poor connection should be locked out of the action games.
  3. There should be a way to quit out of a game without quitting the whole app. There’s no consequence for it—on anyone’s end because they just replace you with a CPU anyway—so why not.
I know I didn’t get everything but I’d like to hear your thoughts. How are you getting along with the game? Are these problems starting to bother you? Do you have different problems that I didn’t name? Let me know in the comments.
submitted by mierecat to NintendoSwitch [link] [comments]

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