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Can I sell bitcoin gold at bitfinex? if not where can I? As what is it listed on exchanges (short form)?

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[uncensored-r/Bitcoin] Can I sell bitcoin gold at bitfinex? if not where can I? As what is it listed on exchanges (short...

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Forex Trading in Kenya.

Someone posted on here a few days ago asking about forex and forex trading in Kenya, I have gone through the responses and clearly, most people don’t have an idea. It is 3am in the morning and am in a good mood so let me make this post. This will be a comprehensive and lengthy post so grab a pen and paper and sit down. We’ll be here a while.
FIRST OF ALL, who am I..?
I am a forex trader, in Nairobi, Kenya..i have been actively involved in forex since I found out about it in Feb 2016 when I somehow ended up in a wealth creation seminar (lol) in pride inn Westlands, the one close to Mpaka Rd. Luckily for me, it was not one of those AIM global meetings or I’d be on Facebook selling God knows what those guys sell. I did not take it seriously till August of the same year and I have been active ever since.
I don’t teach, mentor or sell a course or signals, I trade my own money. I am also posting from a throwaway account because I don’t want KRA on my ass.
What the fuck is forex and forex trading.
In simple plain English, forex is like the stock market but for currencies. Stock Market = Shares, forex = currencies. If you want more in-depth explanation, google is your friend.
These currencies are pegged on specific countries, united states- dollar, UK- pound, euro zone- euro, Switzerland- Swiss franc, Kenya- Kenya shilling.. you get the point. Now, there are specific events and happenings between these economies that affect the movement and values of the currencies, driving their value (purchasing power up and down). Forex trading exploits these movements to make money. When the value is going up, we buy and vice versa (down –sell)
Is forex trading illegal in Kenya? Is it a scam?
Illegal, no. scam, no. All the banks in the world do it (KCB made about 4 billion from trading forex in 2019)
Have there been scams involving forex in Kenya?
Yes. Here is one that happened recently. This one is the most infamous one yet. Best believe that this is not the end of these type of scams because the stupidity, greed and gullibility of human beings is unfathomable.
However, by the end of this post, I hope you won’t fall for such silliness.
What next how do I make it work..?
Am glad you asked. Generally, there are two ways to go about it. One, you teach yourself. This is the equivalent of stealing our dad’s car and hoping that the pedal you hit is the brake and not the accelerator. It is the route I took, it is the most rewarding and a huge ego boost when you finally make it on your own. Typically, this involves scouring the internet for hours upon hours going down rabbit holes, thinking you have made it telling all your friends how you will be a millionaire then losing all your money. Some people do not have the stomach for that.
The second route is more practical, structured and smarter.
First Learn the basics. There is a free online forex course at www.babypips.com/learn/forex this is merely an introductory course. Basically it is learning the parts of a car before they let you inside the car.
Second, start building your strategy. By the time you are done with the babypips, you will have a feel of what the forex market is, what interests you, etc. Tip..Babypips has a lot of garbage. It is good for introductory purposes but not good for much else, pick whatever stick to you or jumps at you the first time. Nonsense like indicators should be ignored.
The next step is now the most important. Developing the skill and building your strategy. As a beginner, you want to exhaust your naivety before jumping into the more advanced stuff. Eg can you identify a trend, what is a pair, what is position sizing, what is metatrader 4 and how to operate it, what news is good for a currency, when can I trade, what are the different trading sessions, what is technical analysis, what is market sentiment, what are bullish conditions what is emotion management, how does my psychology affect my trading (more on this later) an I a swing, scalper or day trader etc
Mentors and forex courses.. you have probably seen people advertising how they can teach and mentor you on how to trade forex and charging so much money for it. Somehow it seems that these people are focused on the teaching than the trading. Weird, right..? Truth is trading is hard, teaching not quite. A common saying in the industry is “Those who can’t trade, teach” you want to avoid all these gurus on Facebook and Instagram, some are legit but most are not. Sifting the wheat from the chaff is hard but I did that for you. The info is available online on YouTube, telegram channels etc. am not saying not to spend money on a course, if you find a mentor whose style resonates with you and the course is reasonably priced, please, go ahead and buy..it will cut your learning curve in half. People are different. What worked for me might not work for you.
Here are some nice YouTube channels to watch. These guys are legit..
  1. Sam sieden
  2. Cuebanks
  3. TheCoinFx
  4. The trading channel
  5. Astro
  6. Forex family
  7. Wicksdontlie
Advanced stuff
  1. ICT
After a short period of time, you will be able to sniff out bs teachers with relative ease. You will also discover some of your own and expand the list. Two tips, start with the oldest videos first and whichever of these resonates with you, stick with till the wheels fall off.
How long will it take until things start making sense
Give yourself time to grow and learn. This is all new to you and you are allowed to make mistakes, to fail and discover yourself. Realistically, depending on the effort you put in, you will not start seeing results until after 6 months. Could take longeshorter so there is no guarantee.
Social media, Mentality, Psychology and Books
Online, forex trading might not have the best reputation online because it takes hard work and scammers and gurus give it a bad name. However, try to not get sucked into the Instagram trader lifestyle as it is nowhere close to what the reality is. You will not make millions tomorrow or the day after, you might never even make it in this market. But that is the reality of life. Nothing is promised, nothing is guaranteed.
Your mentality, beliefs and ego will be challenged in this market. You will learn things that will make you blood boil, you will ask yourself daily, how is this possible, why don’t they teach this in school..bla bla bla..it will be hard but growth is painful, if it wasn’t we’d all be billionaires. Take a break, take a walk, drink a glass of whatever you like or roll one..detox. Chill with your girl (or man) Gradually you will develop mental toughness that will set you up for life. Personally, I sorta ditched religion and picked up stoicism. Whatever works for you.
Psychology, this is unfortunately one of the most neglected aspects of your personal development in this journey. Do you believe in yourself? Can you stand by your convictions when everyone is against you? Can you get up every day uncertain of the future? There will be moments where you will question yourself, am I even doing the right thing? the right way? It is normal and essential for your growth. People who played competitive sports have a natural advantage here. Remember the game is first won in your head then on the pitch.
Books: ironically, books that helped me the most were the mindset books, Think and grow rich, trading for a living, 4 hour work week, the monk who sold his Ferrari..just google mindset and psychology books, most trading books are garbage. Watch and listen to people who have made it in the investing business. Ray Dalio, warren, Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn.
This is turning out to be lengthier than I anticipated so I’ll try to be brief for the remaining parts.
Brokers
You will need to open up an account with a broker. Get a broker who is regulated. Australian ones (IC Market and Pepperstone) are both legit, reliable and regulated. Do your research. I’d avoid local ones because I’ve heard stories of wide spreads and liquidity problems. International brokers have never failed me. There are plenty brokers, there is no one size fits all recommendation. If it ain’t broke..don’t fix it.
Money transfer.
All brokers accept wire transfers, you might need to call your bank to authorize that, avoid Equity bank. Stanchart and Stanbic are alright. Large withdrawals $10k+ you will have to call them prior. Get Skrill and Neteller if you don’t like banks like me, set up a Bitcoin wallet for faster withdrawals, (Payoneer and Paypal are accepted by some brokers, just check with them.)
How much money can I make..?
I hate this question because people have perceived ceilings of income in their minds, eg 1 million ksh is too much to make per month or 10,000ksh is too little. Instead, work backwards. What % return did I make this month/ on this trade. Safaricom made 19.5% last year, if you make 20% you have outperformed them. If you reach of consistency where you can make x% per month on whatever money you have, then there are no limits to how much you can make.
How much money do I need to start with..?
Zero. You have all the resources above, go forth. There are brokers who provide free bonuses and withdraw-able profits. However, to make a fulltime income you will need some serious cash. Generally, 50,000 kes. You can start lower or higher but if you need say 20k to live comfortably and that is a 10% return per month, then you can do the math on how big your account should be. Of course things like compound interest come into play but that is dependent on your skill level. I have seen people do spectacular things with very little funds.
Taxes..?
Talk to a lawyer or an accountant. I am neither.
Family? Friends?
Unfortunately, people will not understand why you spend hundreds of hours watching strangers on the internet so it is best to keep it from them. Eventually you will make it work and they will come to your corner talking about how they always knew you’d make it.
The journey will be lonely, make some trading buddies along the way. You’d be surprised at how easy it is when people are united by their circumstances (and stupidity) I have guys who are my bros from South Africa and Lebanon who I have never met but we came up together and are now homies. Join forums, ask questions and grow. That is the only way to learn. Ideally, a group of 5-10 friends committed to learning and growth is the best model. Pushing each other to grow and discovering together.
Forex is real and you can do amazing things with it. It is not a get rich quick scheme. If you want a quick guaranteed income, get a job.
And now it is 5am, fuck.
This is oversimplified and leaves out many many aspects.
Happy to answer any questions.
submitted by ChaliFlaniwaNairobi to Kenya [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

I've just confirmed. We can fight against cheat makers - go after their money.

TL;DR - Paypal does not tolerate cheat sellers operating on Paypal and will quickly move to shut down their payment. In line with the thread I made (linked below), making it harder or more expensive for people to buy cheats will reduce the number of people willing to jump through hoops to cheat. This is the only way we can fight back. Instructions how to do this are below.
Last week I was looking at the inundated front-page of Warzone with nearly 100 posts per day about hackers. We as a community are fucked off with the amount of cheaters in Warzone. My post >>here<< ended up with multiple reddit awards and I had just come off chat with Paypal support after notifying them of the Paypal account for a popular cheating website.
As of today, you can no longer buy cheats on that website using Paypal, and the moderator is now taking one-on-one requests for payment.
I contacted Paypal with the following:
Paypal has responded every time by thanking me for the notification and agreeing to take action against the account.
And today after checking - they are putting their money where their mouth is. To buy cheats on this website you can only use Cryptocurrency - let me tell you, even in 2020 the act of buying Crypto is not easy.
A Warzone cheat on this site costs something like $120, let's say the cheater transfers $120 to Coinbase, oops, now that is actually $115 because of Coinbase's fee. So he puts another $5 on, well actually $6 because there will be a fee. Now he goes to buy $120 worth of Bitcoin, but the price has changed overnight so he needs to load more Bitcoin on - this is on top of registering an account and performing user verification and waiting for bank details to be confirmed.
This is a very real and effective way to fight cheaters. We can whinge to Activision all we want, but if they are taking steps they aren't going to announce it publicly, but we can fight back ourselves by preventing easy access to cheats.
Google Warzone cheats and find discords that send links around. Become a little detective. Pose as a piece of shit gentleman looking to get a competitive edge. Sign up with a fake name, fake account name, etc. Talk to moderators. Get Paypal payment links and then go straight to Paypal customer chat and just state "This [website] with this [paypal account name] is selling cheats which break the EULA and breach Copyright law, please can you take action against this account as it is in violation of Paypal's Terms of Service, thank you."
We can all post videos of hackers that take 10-20 minutes to edit, compress and upload, or we can find a cheat website, get the account information and report them.
I can guarantee that some little twat who buys cheats via Paypal is not going to go through the trouble of buying Cryptocurrency and all the legally-required KYC (Know Your Customer) that Coinbase is compelled to collect. This is the most valuable tool we have to fight cheaters. The power of snitching, lol.
EDIT: Just as a side note, I'm awaiting Coinbase's response as to whether this constitutes a break of Terms of Service on their website to sell copyrighted material. Their Terms of Services states they do, but they are famously bad at responding to customer service within 2 weeks so I need to wait. If we can cut off Paypal, Coinbase & Credit Card then short of sending cash through the post I have no idea how they would get payment. Maybe Venmo or something?
EDIT 2: This is a big one. Mastercard (one this website is trying to get back online) actively PROHIBIT and PURSUE the sale of copyrighted goods using their card services.
Whenever this dipshit cheat seller gets his Mastercard payment service running again then Mastercard will be notified and it says on their site that they can and will pass on details to law enforcement.
PAYPAL REPORTING LINK HERE
submitted by TNGSystems to CODWarzone [link] [comments]

Some useful tips you may need for the next bull run

During the previous bull run, I’ve made some wrong decisions that have cost me a lot of money. With the halving just behind us, we may enter a new bull run.
Here are some tips for the next bull run. Feel free to add yours:
• ⁠never sell your whole stack
• ⁠never trade with your whole stack. not your keys not your crypto
• ⁠if you have life changing amounts, you are a gambler if you hodl everything for bigger life changing amounts (lots of people have been thinking "i should have, would have, could have" everyday for the last year+)
• ⁠scale out when the log chart goes parabolic, and your grandma and uber driver and katy perry are talking about bitcoins. the difference between short term gains & long term gains is more than losing 90% of your principle. markets don't care about your timetable
• ⁠take chunks of your profits out of crypto entirely & diversify, you can lockup a small percentage into defi and earn interest as a hedge to offset fomo
• ⁠pay your taxes (optional?) and/or save money for a rainy day in fiat
• ⁠set some low limit orders you don't think will hit on the way up and be patient
• ⁠set some high limit orders on the way down to catch any fat finger trades
• ⁠keep a few low orders on exchanges that still allow flash crashes and think of those as your reserves
• ⁠don't ever talk to people about your gains
• specify a strategy prior to the new bull run, including exit points and several levels at which you plan to sell parts of your stack
• help newbies who will be attracted by the new bull run and don’t shill your own shitcoins
submitted by XRBeast to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

ETHE & GBTC (Grayscale) Frequently Asked Questions

It is no doubt Grayscale’s booming popularity as a mainstream investment has caused a lot of community hullabaloo lately. As such, I felt it was worth making a FAQ regarding the topic. I’m looking to update this as needed and of course am open to suggestions / adding any questions.
The goal is simply to have a thread we can link to anyone with questions on Grayscale and its products. Instead of explaining the same thing 3 times a day, shoot those posters over to this thread. My hope is that these questions are answered in a fairly simple and easy to understand manner. I think as the sub grows it will be a nice reference point for newcomers.
Disclaimer: I do NOT work for Grayscale and as such am basing all these answers on information that can be found on their website / reports. (Grayscale’s official FAQ can be found here). I also do NOT have a finance degree, I do NOT have a Series 6 / 7 / 140-whatever, and I do NOT work with investment products for my day job. I have an accounting background and work within the finance world so I have the general ‘business’ knowledge to put it all together, but this is all info determined in my best faith effort as a layman. The point being is this --- it is possible I may explain something wrong or missed the technical terms, and if that occurs I am more than happy to update anything that can be proven incorrect
Everything below will be in reference to ETHE but will apply to GBTC as well. If those two segregate in any way, I will note that accordingly.
What is Grayscale? 
Grayscale is the company that created the ETHE product. Their website is https://grayscale.co/
What is ETHE? 
ETHE is essentially a stock that intends to loosely track the price of ETH. It does so by having each ETHE be backed by a specific amount of ETH that is held on chain. Initially, the newly minted ETHE can only be purchased by institutions and accredited investors directly from Grayscale. Once a year has passed (6 months for GBTC) it can then be listed on the OTCQX Best Market exchange for secondary trading. Once listed on OTCQX, anyone investor can purchase at this point. Additional information on ETHE can be found here.
So ETHE is an ETF? 
No. For technical reasons beyond my personal understandings it is not labeled an ETF. I know it all flows back to the “Securities Act Rule 144”, but due to my limited knowledge on SEC regulations I don’t want to misspeak past that. If anyone is more knowledgeable on the subject I am happy to input their answer here.
How long has ETHE existed? 
ETHE was formed 12/14/2017. GBTC was formed 9/25/2013.
How is ETHE created? 
The trust will issue shares to “Authorized Participants” in groups of 100 shares (called baskets). Authorized Participants are the only persons that may place orders to create these baskets and they do it on behalf of the investor.
Source: Creation and Redemption of Shares section on page 39 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Note – The way their reports word this makes it sound like there is an army of authorizers doing the dirty work, but in reality there is only one Authorized Participant. At this moment the “Genesis” company is the sole Authorized Participant. Genesis is owned by the “Digital Currency Group, Inc.” which is the parent company of Grayscale as well. (And to really go down the rabbit hole it looks like DCG is the parent company of CoinDesk and is “backing 150+ companies across 30 countries, including Coinbase, Ripple, and Chainalysis.”)
Source: Digital Currency Group, Inc. informational section on page 77 of the “Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) Form 10-K (2019)” – Located Here
Source: Barry E. Silbert informational section on page 75 of the “Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) Form 10-K (2019)” – Located Here
How does Grayscale acquire the ETH to collateralize the ETHE product? 
An Investor may acquire ETHE by paying in cash or exchanging ETH already owned.
Source: Creation and Redemption of Shares section on page 40 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Where does Grayscale store their ETH? Does it have a specific wallet address we can follow? 
ETH is stored with Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC. I am unaware of any specific address or set of addresses that can be used to verify the ETH is actually there.
As an aside - I would actually love to see if anyone knows more about this as it’s something that’s sort of peaked my interest after being asked about it… I find it doubtful we can find that however.
Source: Part C. Business Information, Item 8, subsection A. on page 16 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Can ETHE be redeemed for ETH? 
No, currently there is no way to give your shares of ETHE back to Grayscale to receive ETH back. The only method of getting back into ETH would be to sell your ETHE to someone else and then use those proceeds to buy ETH yourself.
Source: Redemption Procedures on page 41 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Why are they not redeeming shares? 
I think the report summarizes it best:
Redemptions of Shares are currently not permitted and the Trust is unable to redeem Shares. Subject to receipt of regulatory approval from the SEC and approval by the Sponsor in its sole discretion, the Trust may in the future operate a redemption program. Because the Trust does not believe that the SEC would, at this time, entertain an application for the waiver of rules needed in order to operate an ongoing redemption program, the Trust currently has no intention of seeking regulatory approval from the SEC to operate an ongoing redemption program.
Source: Redemption Procedures on page 41 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
What is the fee structure? 
ETHE has an annual fee of 2.5%. GBTC has an annual fee of 2.0%. Fees are paid by selling the underlying ETH / BTC collateralizing the asset.
Source: ETHE’s informational page on Grayscale’s website - Located Here
Source: Description of Trust on page 31 & 32 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
What is the ratio of ETH to ETHE? 
At the time of posting (6/19/2020) each ETHE share is backed by .09391605 ETH. Each share of GBTC is backed by .00096038 BTC.
ETHE & GBTC’s specific information page on Grayscale’s website updates the ratio daily – Located Here
For a full historical look at this ratio, it can be found on the Grayscale home page on the upper right side if you go to Tax Documents > 2019 Tax Documents > Grayscale Ethereum Trust 2019 Tax Letter.
Why is the ratio not 1:1? Why is it always decreasing? 
While I cannot say for certain why the initial distribution was not a 1:1 backing, it is more than likely to keep the price down and allow more investors a chance to purchase ETHE / GBTC.
As noted above, fees are paid by selling off the ETH collateralizing ETHE. So this number will always be trending downward as time goes on.
Source: Description of Trust on page 32 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
I keep hearing about how this is locked supply… explain? 
As noted above, there is currently no redemption program for converting your ETHE back into ETH. This means that once an ETHE is issued, it will remain in circulation until a redemption program is formed --- something that doesn’t seem to be too urgent for the SEC or Grayscale at the moment. Tiny amounts will naturally be removed due to fees, but the bulk of the asset is in there for good.
Knowing that ETHE cannot be taken back and destroyed at this time, the ETH collateralizing it will not be removed from the wallet for the foreseeable future. While it is not fully locked in the sense of say a totally lost key, it is not coming out any time soon.
Per their annual statement:
The Trust’s ETH will be transferred out of the ETH Account only in the following circumstances: (i) transferred to pay the Sponsor’s Fee or any Additional Trust Expenses, (ii) distributed in connection with the redemption of Baskets (subject to the Trust’s obtaining regulatory approval from the SEC to operate an ongoing redemption program and the consent of the Sponsor), (iii) sold on an as-needed basis to pay Additional Trust Expenses or (iv) sold on behalf of the Trust in the event the Trust terminates and liquidates its assets or as otherwise required by law or regulation.
Source: Description of Trust on page 31 of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
Grayscale now owns a huge chunk of both ETH and BTC’s supply… should we be worried about manipulation, a sell off to crash the market crash, a staking cartel? 
First, it’s important to remember Grayscale is a lot more akin to an exchange then say an investment firm. Grayscale is working on behalf of its investors to create this product for investor control. Grayscale doesn’t ‘control’ the ETH it holds any more then Coinbase ‘controls’ the ETH in its hot wallet. (Note: There are likely some varying levels of control, but specific to this topic Grayscale cannot simply sell [legally, at least] the ETH by their own decision in the same manner Coinbase wouldn't be able to either.)
That said, there shouldn’t be any worry in the short to medium time-frame. As noted above, Grayscale can’t really remove ETH other than for fees or termination of the product. At 2.5% a year, fees are noise in terms of volume. Grayscale seems to be the fastest growing product in the crypto space at the moment and termination of the product seems unlikely.
IF redemptions were to happen tomorrow, it’s extremely unlikely we would see a mass exodus out of the product to redeem for ETH. And even if there was incentive to get back to ETH, the premium makes it so that it would be much more cost effective to just sell your ETHE on the secondary market and buy ETH yourself. Remember, any redemption is up to the investors and NOT something Grayscale has direct control over.
Yes, but what about [insert criminal act here]… 
Alright, yes. Technically nothing is stopping Grayscale from selling all the ETH / BTC and running off to the Bahamas (Hawaii?). BUT there is no real reason for them to do so. Barry is an extremely public figure and it won’t be easy for him to get away with that. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust creates SEC reports weekly / bi-weekly and I’m sure given the sentiment towards crypto is being watched carefully. Plus, Grayscale is making tons of consistent revenue and thus has little to no incentive to give that up for a quick buck.
That’s a lot of ‘happy little feels’ Bob, is there even an independent audit or is this Tether 2.0? 
Actually yes, an independent auditor report can be found in their annual reports. It is clearly aimed more towards the financial side and I doubt the auditors are crypto savants, but it is at least one extra set of eyes. Auditors are Friedman LLP – Auditor since 2015.
Source: Independent Auditor Report starting on page 116 (of the PDF itself) of the “Grayscale Ethereum Trust Annual Report (2019)” – Located Here
As mentioned by user TheCrpytosAndBloods (In Comments Below), a fun fact:
The company’s auditors Friedman LLP were also coincidentally TetheBitfinex’s auditors until They controversially parted ways in 2018 when the Tether controversy was at its height. I am not suggesting for one moment that there is anything shady about DCG - I just find it interesting it’s the same auditor.
“Grayscale sounds kind of lame” / “Not your keys not your crypto!” / “Why is anyone buying this, it sounds like a scam?” 
Welp, for starters this honestly is not really a product aimed at the people likely to be reading this post. To each their own, but do remember just because something provides no value to you doesn’t mean it can’t provide value to someone else. That said some of the advertised benefits are as follows:
So for example, I can set up an IRA at a brokerage account that has $0 trading fees. Then I can trade GBTC and ETHE all day without having to worry about tracking my taxes. All with the relative safety something like E-Trade provides over Binance.
As for how it benefits the everyday ETH holder? I think the supply lock is a positive. I also think this product exposes the Ethereum ecosystem to people who otherwise wouldn’t know about it.
Why is there a premium? Why is ETHE’s premium so insanely high compared to GBTC’s premium? 
There are a handful of theories of why a premium exists at all, some even mentioned in the annual report. The short list is as follows:
Why is ETHE’s so much higher the GBTC’s? Again, a few thoughts:

Are there any other differences between ETHE and GBTC? 
I touched on a few of the smaller differences, but one of the more interesting changes is GBTC is now a “SEC reporting company” as of January 2020. Which again goes beyond my scope of knowledge so I won’t comment on it too much… but the net result is GBTC is now putting out weekly / bi-weekly 8-K’s and annual 10-K’s. This means you can track GBTC that much easier at the moment as well as there is an extra layer of validity to the product IMO.
I’m looking for some statistics on ETHE… such as who is buying, how much is bought, etc? 
There is a great Q1 2020 report I recommend you give a read that has a lot of cool graphs and data on the product. It’s a little GBTC centric, but there is some ETHE data as well. It can be found here hidden within the 8-K filings.Q1 2020 is the 4/16/2020 8-K filing.
For those more into a GAAP style report see the 2019 annual 10-K of the same location.
Is Grayscale only just for BTC and ETH? 
No, there are other products as well. In terms of a secondary market product, ETCG is the Ethereum Classic version of ETHE. Fun Fact – ETCG was actually put out to the secondary market first. It also has a 3% fee tied to it where 1% of it goes to some type of ETC development fund.
In terms of institutional and accredited investors, there are a few ‘fan favorites’ such as Bitcoin Cash, Litcoin, Stellar, XRP, and Zcash. Something called Horizion (Backed by ZEN I guess? Idk to be honest what that is…). And a diversified Mutual Fund type fund that has a little bit of all of those. None of these products are available on the secondary market.
Are there alternatives to Grayscale? 
I know they exist, but I don’t follow them. I’ll leave this as a “to be edited” section and will add as others comment on what they know.
Per user Over-analyser (in comments below):
Coinshares (Formerly XBT provider) are the only similar product I know of. BTC, ETH, XRP and LTC as Exchange Traded Notes (ETN).
It looks like they are fully backed with the underlying crypto (no premium).
https://coinshares.com/etps/xbt-provideinvestor-resources/daily-hedging-position
Denominated in SEK and EUR. Certainly available in some UK pensions (SIPP).
As asked by pegcity - Okay so I was under the impression you can just give them your own ETH and get ETHE, but do you get 11 ETHE per ETH or do you get the market value of ETH in USD worth of ETHE? 
I have always understood that the ETHE issued directly through Grayscale is issued without the premium. As in, if I were to trade 1 ETH for ETHE I would get 11, not say only 2 or 3 because the secondary market premium is so high. And if I were paying cash only I would be paying the price to buy 1 ETH to get my 11 ETHE. Per page 39 of their annual statement, it reads as follows:
The Trust will issue Shares to Authorized Participants from time to time, but only in one or more Baskets (with a Basket being a block of 100 Shares). The Trust will not issue fractions of a Basket. The creation (and, should the Trust commence a redemption program, redemption) of Baskets will be made only in exchange for the delivery to the Trust, or the distribution by the Trust, of the number of whole and fractional ETH represented by each Basket being created (or, should the Trust commence a redemption program, redeemed), which is determined by dividing (x) the number of ETH owned by the Trust at 4:00 p.m., New York time, on the trade date of a creation or redemption order, after deducting the number of ETH representing the U.S. dollar value of accrued but unpaid fees and expenses of the Trust (converted using the ETH Index Price at such time, and carried to the eighth decimal place), by (y) the number of Shares outstanding at such time (with the quotient so obtained calculated to one one-hundred-millionth of one ETH (i.e., carried to the eighth decimal place)), and multiplying such quotient by 100 (the “Basket ETH Amount”). All questions as to the calculation of the Basket ETH Amount will be conclusively determined by the Sponsor and will be final and binding on all persons interested in the Trust. The Basket ETH Amount multiplied by the number of Baskets being created or redeemed is the “Total Basket ETH Amount.” The number of ETH represented by a Share will gradually decrease over time as the Trust’s ETH are used to pay the Trust’s expenses. Each Share represented approximately 0.0950 ETH and 0.0974 ETH as of December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively.

submitted by Bob-Rossi to ethfinance [link] [comments]

What the whales are doing with STA, spoiler alert, it's pretty damn bullish

So I've seen the rise, fall, and now stabilization of STA and decided to do some research. But why do I want to do research on a shitcoin? Because my hope is, it's not a shitcoin.
What you are doing with statera is buying a "stake" in SNX, Link, BTC, ETH, and STA through an index fund (balancer pool), if BTC moons then the index fund buys more SNX, Link, ETH, BTC, and STA, if STA moons the pool buys more SNX, Link, BTC, and ETH. If Link, ETH, SNX, and BTC all go up then the pool buys more STA forcing STA's price to go up. It's basically a way to gain exposure to all 5 assets simultaneously while balancing your risk. The interesting part is that STA is deflationary, it destroys itself with each transaction (we've already seen supply dwindle by 7 million STA), this reduces supply, increasing demand, increasing price. It's basically a leveraged index fund on BTC, ETH, Link, and SNX all projects I invest directly in and support. If we have a bull cycle STA will moon. (Disclaimer, there is no free lunch, if there is an error in the code or a back door, or if something goes awry with the balancer, this could go down in flames, they are currently auditing the code with a third party which will give us more assurance. It is also decentralized so there is less counter-party risk, as long as that decentralization holds, which the audit will help us understand. Other than a black swan catastrophic failure, this is an incredible investment on paper, if you think the other 4 assets will go up, because them going up forces the buying of STA by the balancer pool, which is basically an altruistic whale that wants STA to be less volatile while trending up in price).
There is a term in investing called accumulation phase, for us in crypto when someone like Grayscale buys 150% of all bitcoins being mined, or buys tens of millions in crypto every week, do you think they just put a market order into Coinbase Pro? No. They could do an Over The Counter (OTC) trade with an individual, they agree on a price, and a large purchase is made individual to individual (but I doubt they continue to find a bunch of bitcoin whales to give them the thousands of bitcoins they want). So what do you do? If you buy thousands of bitcoin the price will unnaturally go up as people spot your demand and inflate the order books to take your money then the price crashes once you, the biggest buyer, is out of the market, leaving you with a heavy bag. So you enter an accumulation phase, a simplified example:
Your target to buy a stock is $5-$10, you are happy buying at any price in that range. The price is at $8, so you put in a few orders and a few more 10 shares at a time so no one sees you as a whale, the prices starts going up, you have now purchased 1,000 shares and the price is $9.99, so you sell 800 shares all in one big order, everyone freaks out seeing this "huge" (huge in our example) order from presumably a whale who is spooked by market sentiment, price crashes to $6. You start buying again $20 at a time, and build your stack back up to 1,500 shares, the price has hit $8.99 and just to throw the market off (doing it again at $9.99 would be too obvious) you sell 1,000 shares. Rinse repeat. You have now bought 500 shares at the price you want where as, if you had bought 500 shares all at once, the price would have sky rocketed to $20 and then fell back to earth (say back down to $10) and you'd be holding shares at a 100% premium. This is highly simplified but hopefully gives you an idea of how accumulation works and maybe even makes you wonder if bitcoin is not going through this exact thing as we speak.
But on to Statera, so I decided to look at the whales in this space, you can check my work,go to the contract addressthen click on "holders" the list is constantly changing, addresses 10 and 11 leapfrogged address 9 and are now 9 and 10 respectively. I put the first four digits of the address so you can specifically check my work. I would say what I found is highly bullish (but make your own conjectures). First off the spread of addresses is HEALTHY, the biggest whales (top 50 address) all hold .5-2% of the supply each. The biggest holder (the developer) holds 4.6% of supply (the best I can tell you can mask your holdings and shuffle them all over so it's nearly impossible to really tell). Also there are only 1,700 people in the coin, we are still VERY early, this is more than a 50% increase in a week. Lastly the balancer pool (which balances the index) has over $350,000 in it up over 50% in the last week, this is arguably the most important metric, the liquidity here is what allows the balancing to happen and the STA price to be forced to go up, this is a huge amount of liquidity for something only held by 1,700 people, it's actually quadruple the liquidity of the trading pairs on Uniswap! Long story short the balancer pool is armed and ready to balance and support STA.
So there is no one holding 90% of supply (that we can tell) who is waiting to dump on you, we're in the early stages and seeing a lot of health in the token, and there is a lot of liquidity here. Now, the top 13 addresses:
1 (0x43) Dev Account started with all 101,000,000 then started pushing out to exchanges and balancer pool, sent 50 million right off the bat to 0x0e (balancer pool or uniswap) fun account to look at you kind of get to see the genesis of the coin.
2 (0x28) "Bought" a ton to start, hodler (weirdly sold a VERY small amount, around 10,000 of his over two million). I put bought in quotes because this account got it's STA from 0x6a, which is also where account 11 got it's from, 0x6a seems like an exchange account that people are buying from, but I would love for someone to confirm what 06xa is, balancer pool related, exchange related, developer related?)
3 (0x92) Hodler straight up, not a move, though the dump on this account came from another account that is now zero, could be a similar situation to address 6 where it is a "cold storage" for someone trading with other accounts
4 (0x13) PLAYING the exact game I showed above sell buy sell buy repeat (buys are bigger than sells)
5 (0xC2) Bought big, trickle sold, bought big, currently trickle selling (possibly PLAYING the game)
6 (0xD7) interesting one, bought 1.9 million STA for 1,354 digital Rand (What a deal!) then transferred all their STA from one account (0x67 currently no STA) to this account, now semi holding, small sells, sold 40,000 in all of 1.7 million. Not sure why he transferred could be intentional to mask moves, could be moving to hardware wallet, could be moving to exchange, unknown. Seems like a HODLER.
7 (0x7c) PLAYING THE EXACT GAME...
8 (0x0e) Contract (looks like balancer pool related)
9 (0x59) Contract (looks like balancer pool related)
10 (0xd8) PLAYING THE GAME
11 (0xb0) got a large dump from 0xc69 and is now holding (which now has 0) and if you keep tracing it back and back you get to the first account in the chain (0x6a, which also funded 0x28, which now has 615,000, and is either interacting with the balancer or trading, again please someone explain I can't), this could be a whale splitting his buckets or two large individuals who did an OTC trade, but more likely it's one person who is doing a lot of trading and accumulating. I would put PLAYING THE GAME, as the other accounts it came from are accumulating, but not completely clear. It seems like she may be using this as a "cold address" to hodl and then trading with her other account
12 (0x18db) Hodl. Accumulated hard from Uniswap buy buy buy 15, 12, and 6 days ago, hasn't moved since.
13 (0x6c) PLAYING THE GAME
So are we in a whale accumulation phase? Hard to tell, the top 10 addresses (minus 3 for the two contracts and dev) are definitely acting bullish even if they are not accumulating, it seems like 6 of the 10 are in some form of an accumulation phase and the other 4 are hodling. I do see STA as a long term hold, again it's an index fund on four of the biggest names in crypto. This will be a popular investment (if it remains legit, so far it has been highly legit). That being said, this is just 10 addresses, I don't want to spend my whole Saturday on this, if anyone wants to look at the top 50 addresses, please do! I will read and upvote your post. It was reassuring to me at least to see the top addresses are acting like bullish investors. Is the whole STA trader base in accumulation or is this an anomaly? I don't know, you can be the judge or dig deeper yourself.
The best part of this sideways action and the buying and selling of STA in the 4-6 cent range is that every trade burns coin, deflating supply, and making any later bull run even bigger. That's the genius of the coin, with every trade, with everyday, it inherently becomes more valuable (unless Link, ETH, SNX, and BTC all shit the bed, then game over, but that would be game over no matter what game you're playing).
DYOR, don't put in more than you are willing to lose, but as for me, I'm going to be following what the whales are doing and slowly accumulating in this band (4-6 cents seems like a strong buy point, 2-3 cents is an amazing buy point but it rarely dips down that low).
submitted by derelick to CryptoMoonShots [link] [comments]

I've just confirmed. We can fight against cheat makers - go after their money.

PLEASE NOTE, THIS IS MY POST FROM THE WARZONE SUBREDDIT, WARZONE IS GETTING INUNDATED WITH CHEATERS SIMILAR TO PUBG. I WILL TRY TO CHANGE INFO TO SUIT PUBG BUT DON'T GET BENT OUT OF SHAPE IF YOU SEE WARZONE MENTIONED :) THANKS
TL;DR - Paypal does not tolerate cheat sellers operating on Paypal and will quickly move to shut down their payment. In line with the thread I made (linked below), making it harder or more expensive for people to buy cheats will reduce the number of people willing to jump through hoops to cheat. This is the only way we can fight back. Instructions how to do this are below.
Last week I was looking at the inundated front-page of Warzone with nearly 100 posts per day about hackers. We as a community are fucked off with the amount of cheaters in Warzone. My post >>here<< ended up with multiple reddit awards and I had just come off chat with Paypal support after notifying them of the Paypal account for a popular cheating website.
As of today, you can no longer buy cheats on that website using Paypal, and the moderator is now taking one-on-one requests for payment.
I contacted Paypal with the following:
Paypal has responded every time by thanking me for the notification and agreeing to take action against the account.
And today after checking - they are putting their money where their mouth is. To buy cheats on this website you can only use Cryptocurrency - let me tell you, even in 2020 the act of buying Crypto is not easy.
A Warzone cheat on this site costs something like $120, let's say the cheater transfers $120 to Coinbase, oops, now that is actually $115 because of Coinbase's fee. So he puts another $5 on, well actually $6 because there will be a fee. Now he goes to buy $120 worth of Bitcoin, but the price has changed overnight so he needs to load more Bitcoin on - this is on top of registering an account and performing user verification and waiting for bank details to be confirmed.
This is a very real and effective way to fight cheaters. We can whinge to Activision all we want, but if they are taking steps they aren't going to announce it publicly, but we can fight back ourselves by preventing easy access to cheats.
Google Warzone cheats and find discords that send links around. Become a little detective. Pose as a piece of shit gentleman looking to get a competitive edge. Sign up with a fake name, fake account name, etc. Talk to moderators. Get Paypal payment links and then go straight to Paypal customer chat and just state "This [website] with this [paypal account name] is selling cheats which break the EULA and breach Copyright law, please can you take action against this account as it is in violation of Paypal's Terms of Service, thank you."
We can all post videos of hackers that take 10-20 minutes to edit, compress and upload, or we can find a cheat website, get the account information and report them.
I can guarantee that some little twat who buys cheats via Paypal is not going to go through the trouble of buying Cryptocurrency and all the legally-required KYC (Know Your Customer) that Coinbase is compelled to collect. This is the most valuable tool we have to fight cheaters. The power of snitching, lol.
EDIT: Just as a side note, I'm awaiting Coinbase's response as to whether this constitutes a break of Terms of Service on their website to sell copyrighted material. Their Terms of Services states they do, but they are famously bad at responding to customer service within 2 weeks so I need to wait. If we can cut off Paypal, Coinbase & Credit Card then short of sending cash through the post I have no idea how they would get payment. Maybe Venmo or something?
EDIT 2: This is a big one. Mastercard (one this website is trying to get back online) actively PROHIBIT and PURSUE the sale of copyrighted goods using their card services.
Whenever this dipshit cheat seller gets his Mastercard payment service running again then Mastercard will be notified and it says on their site that they can and will pass on details to law enforcement.
PAYPAL REPORTING LINK HERE
submitted by TNGSystems to PUBATTLEGROUNDS [link] [comments]

Twitter Hack

The news is reporting it as a Bitcoin scam. It's not. It's a direct attack by a sophisticated group.
I know this for a few reasons.
1) All Bitcoin that was "stolen" is publicly registered, so none of the Bitcoin can even be used.
2) There are much better ways to scam money than hacking large accounts for a phishing scam. Namely one could post that Elon Musk has passed away (one of the accounts that was hacked), and short Tesla stock. Untrackable, unlike Bitcoin.
3) This is one is separate from the other two, but why were only leftist accounts hacked? All had two party authorization, meaning all nine or ten people's phones are hacked. Coincidence that they all so happen to be hardcore leftists... Hmmmmm
4) Also, now that those accounts were hacked, all Direct Messages from those individuals are exposed. Imagine the type of danger a country could face if all of it's leaders communications are exposed.
5) One day before the largest cyber attack in history, President Trump's passes a sweeping bill targeting China.
At this point we all have to see what is really happening. Everything that is happening this year is because Trump is attacking China. I believe even this pandemic has root in Chinese Government. What so happens to be funny is all of these people that were "hacked" have financial ties to China
Go look at the disgusting things China is doing; taking land from other countries that "belongs" to them, taking and demolishing homes from their own people, putting their own people in internment camps, and harvesting their organs to sell. That's not even to mention the flooding the government is responsible for, affecting 300,000+ people. What we are dealing with is our generations Nazi Germany.
Edit:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wionews.com/world/chinas-hunger-for-others-land-knows-no-limits-its-latest-target-is-russia-310561/amp
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/china-harvesting-organs-of-uighur-muslims-china-tribunal-tells-un-2019-9%3famp
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/voices/china-religious-ethnic-minorities-organ-harvesting-uighur-muslims-falun-gong-brexit-a9120146.html%3famp
https://www.google.com/search?q=xinjiang+internment+camps&oq=xinjiang+internment+camps&aqs=chrome..69i57.8636j0j4&client=ms-android-tmus-us-revc&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
I mean, have you even heard of the Yulin festival, which other countries allow humans to do that without repercussion?
This is someone telling the United States that we own your booty nothing less.
submitted by SlyGuySlim to conspiracytheories [link] [comments]

Some friendly tips for those players who are feeling "done" with the game...

The game is fun but challenging; it's not supposed to be easy money! However, after reading quite a few posts from players who felt defeated and "done" with the game because they couldn't keep up with the cost of playing, I thought it might be good to highlight some tips/tricks that everyone might find helpful.
  1. First, and probably most important of these suggestions--do NOT depend solely on the Flea Market for making money. Not everything is going to get you top-dollar returns if you post on the FM, in fact many items sell for as much (if not more!) to the Traders. This has two benefits: one, you can keep these items in your Secure Container to sell regardless of whether you survive the raid; and two, you can level up the traders. Before you post anything, check to see what the Traders would give you for that item, and maybe you can save the posting fee!
  2. Don't neglect your Scav runs, and when you do them, it doesn't always have to be on Interchange or Reserve. You can make 200-300k Rubles for a modest run on pretty much any map. You don't HAVE to find a GPU or rare key for the run to be lucrative. Some maps will have more competition from fellow Scav players (like Customs, Interchange and Reserve), so try running Shoreline or Woods instead. The loot is spread out enough so you can gather items in relative peace, and there are plenty of NPC Scavs (dead and alive) for you to farm gear. Another tip: you can extract on Scav right away and still get Survived status. I have done this when I spawn in with a rare key or item I need for a quest. Don't be ashamed of leaving early if it means making some well-needed cash.
  3. Play smart. I don't mean this in a condescending way, I just mean that making a logical, safe choice is almost always better than making a ballsy play to save time, especially if you already have loot you don't want to lose. Some examples:   ** Suppress your weapon whenever possible. If you fire a loud gun, you are giving free information to everyone within earshot about your location and gun type. If veteran players hear the same gun again in the same area 15 minutes later (if you're playing really slowly), they might assume with reasonable accuracy that you haven't moved through the map, and will expect you to do so soon. If you can't afford suppression (and I get it--at the beginning, it's expensive to do this for every run) then play a bit faster, move away from your kill sites before other players have the chance to corner you. Practice looting faster on your Scav runs, and learn the hotkeys for quick collection and equip (CTRL and ALT respectively).   ** Use the above information to your advantage. Scavs are rarely suppressed, so if they aren't shooting at you, they are shooting at someone else. Treat this as an alarm system and it will help you make more informed decisions about your movement patterns. It might also let you get the jump on other players who just finished an engagement with Scavs and might be hurt or low on ammo. Comtacs will help immensely in this regard.   ** Don't always rush for a high-value loot location. If you spawn as far away as possible from the Health Resort on Shoreline, don't try to rush in and hope that no one opened E222/226. The odds are against you, so instead try to make some cash by hunting players, or looting less-lucrative spots and running it back again afterwards.   ** Don't make ballsy plays just because you think that if you don't, you're a coward. If you aren't comfortable playing aggressive, then doing so might be more risk than it's worth. Your nerves could impact your performance in a high-stress gun fight, so there's no shame in making the choice to walk away. That being said, try to encourage yourself to take more risks over time, work your way up to being able to hold your own in a fight. There's this toxic mentality that if you don't play like John Wick all the time, balls-to-the-wall 24/7, then you're a pussy. Watch any streamer and viewers will complain in chat if they walk away from a risky situation to prevent losing the loot they have already collected. Don't think like that, trust in your own judgement.
  4. Upgrade your hideout and use the crafting systems to make money. Lots of items in the Lavatory, Workbench, Medstation and Nutrition Unit are worth good money--both on the FM and with the Traders. Do some research and you will see that an item that sells for 300k+ might only require materials valued at 150k. Crafting items like that on cooldown is a good way to make virtually free money. You don't need the Bitcoin Farm, Scav Case and Intelligence Center to make good, consistent Rubles. Also, for quests that require items with Found in Raid status--many can be crafted in the Hideout using materials you can buy on the Flea Market, and they will be FiR when complete. If you're having trouble finding GPUs, for example, then hold on to that quest until you have Intelligence Center LV2, and buy the materials to craft them! This way, you can play the game normally, and if you come across one or more in that time, that's just gravy on top!
  5. Sell everything you don't need and keep track of your barter items so you don't keep anything beyond what is necessary for quests and Hideout construction down the line. Invest in a Scav Junkbox early if you are short on space. Keep a few pieces of armouhelmets/comtacs in your stash so you don't need to spend money on them as often. Save and dismantle guns you might want to use later so they take up less space, especially if you're on a Standard Account. In almost 1000 hours this wipe, I have only bought MP-153 shotguns (damn you, Setup quest!)--everything else was found on Scavs or other players, and then I just modified the guns to my need. This ties in directly with #6...
  6. Don't buy what you can find easily. Some of the Gunsmith quests require guns/modifications that you can barter for using common items that you can find in Toolboxes, Duffel Bags and Filing Cabinets. That brings me to another example: the SVD Marksman Rifle. You will need them for the last Punisher quest in the mid- to late-game, but they are easy to find and can save you thousands.   ** SVDs can be found consistently on Woods--Shturman and his guards will almost always have two or more between them loaded with 7N1 or SNB ammunition. To get an idea of their attack patterns and spawn locations, try Scav'ing to see if they are up; you might get lucky and can pick up scrap loot that other players have left behind. Also on Woods: the Sniper Scav near "Pride Rock" usually has an SVD, Mosin or modified SKS, and he's up every round. I was able to collect 9 SVDs from my time doing the beginner Woods quests long before the Punisher series, so take advantage of your time on the map when doing other tasks! Even if you can't find SVDs, if you find items worth 80k rubles, then BOOM! you have essentially found an SVD.
  7. If you're a Standard Account player, DO NOT waste time/money/items on the Beta Secure Container barter with Peacekeeper LL2. Try to hold out for the Epsilon Container, which is a reward for The Punisher - Part 6 (requires the SVD, see #6 above).
  8. Finally, don't be afraid to fail. Dying is part of the game, so take each death as a learning experience. Granted, some deaths are annoying and unavoidable, especially in a Beta. Take a break and Scav for a while, come back to PMC when you have given yourself time to breathe. Each player has different strengths and weaknesses, don't try to fit a mold set by other players in the community. Just enjoy your time in Tarkov and you might find that you're progressing far more than you expected!
I hope those who have read this far will find value in these "tips". For a quick TL;DR summary:
submitted by jrblackyear to EscapefromTarkov [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Hacks & basic ways to protect your Crypto

Interest in Bitcoin is increasing globally. More and more people are willing to participate in Bitcoin trading and mining. However, Bitcoin history shows that it is not always as safe as we would like it to be. Let’s take a look at some major Bitcoin hacks.

Allinvain

Allinvain is a nickname of a user on BitcoinTalk forums. Basically, he was the first one to experience a major Bitcoin loss. He lost 25,000 bitcoins, all together it was worth around $500,000. The user believed that someone hacked into his computer to steal BTC.

Mt Gox

Shortly after Allinvain’s case, the next hack attempt happened. Mt Gox was one of the biggest exchanges that provided a trade between Bitcoin and fiat money. Hackers compromised its website and started to sell Bitcoins. Their actions made the price go down dramatically. However, attackers did not pay attention to the $1000 limit Mt Gox had. Nonetheless, that hack attack had an important influence on BTC.

Other exchanges

Exchanges are being attacked by hackers quite often.
In 2012 Bitfloor suffered a terrible attack and lost 24,000 BTC (around $250,000). Unfortunately, this exchange was not able to survive the attack and was closed in 2013.
In 2015 Bitstamp exchange was hacked. It lost approximately 19,000 BTC (around $5 million).
In 2016 Bitfinex also lost 120,000 BTC (around $77 million) to hackers.

Twitter hack

The last attack happened in one of the biggest social nets. Twitter became a part of the latest attackers’ actions. The most significant and world-famous accounts promoted Bitcoin scam for several hours.

Anti-hack protection

The most important question is how to protect your Bitcoin savings from upcoming attacks. Here are some basic things that may help you to be safe:
Even though there is no way to be a hundred percent safe, there are a lot of steps we can take to avoid unfortunate losses. Cryptocurrency services are improving their protection systems all the time, and we all should do what we can to make this network more secure.
submitted by SimpleSwapExchange to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

XRP is only going to make ripple execs rich

XRP is only going to make ripple execs rich. Not retail folks like us. Ripple Labs and the three Co-Founders of Ripple (XRP) have been selling their premined Ripple (XRP), as revealed by CoinMarketCap historical snapshots. When CoinMarketCap first listed Ripple (XRP) on Aug. 4, 2013, there were 7.8 billion Ripple (XRP) in circulation. By August 2014, there were 29 billion Ripple (XRP) in circulation. At the beginning of 2015, there were 31 billion Ripple (XRP) in circulation, at the beginning of 2016 there were 33.5 billion Ripple (XRP) in circulation, at the beginning of 2017 there were 36.3 billion Ripple (XRP) in circulation, at the beginning of 2018 there were 38.7 billion Ripple (XRP) in circulation, and at the beginning of 2019 there were 40.8 billion Ripple (XRP) in circulation. So far in 2019 Ripple Labs has dumped another 1.77 billion Ripple (XRP) onto the market, bringing the circulating supply up to 42.57 billion Ripple (XRP). XRP is controlled by centralized powers which can shut it down or seize user funds. You cannot fine a true decentralized blockchain, such as Bitcoin. The goal of crypto is monetary sovereignty and to help people escape the abuse of fiat that existing centralized systems impose. Ripple isn’t a utility for any of these things.
These execs were simply granted XRP out of thin air. BTC is not premined and cannot be just given to any company or organization without a huge investment.
A lot of newbies also have no understanding of market cap. There are the dreams of it hitting $589 dollars. Multiply that against the existing supply of 44 billion.
To be very blunt: I don't consider XRP a cryptocurrency. My reasoning: it is regulated. It is controlled by centralized powers which can shut it down or seize user funds. Case in point: Ripple was fined $700,000 in 2015. You cannot fine a true decentralized blockchain, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, as they have no central point of control. To me Ripple is no better than any other banking-centralized platform.
The goal of crypto is monetary sovereignty and to help people escape the abuse of fiat that existing centralized systems impose. Ripple doesn't help any of these things. Maybe Ripple will help there be faster, cheaper payment rails, but it does not forward mankind's freedom much (if at all), and it is not a cryptocurrency.
Ripple as an investment: On a personal level, I don't invest in projects that I don't believe in fundamentally. There is a rule of thumb I go by, which is: for something to be truly innovative, it must be at least an order of magnitude better than the incumbent system it is replacing.
It is entirely possible Ripple will continue to see growth as it did in 2017. It saw some huge gains, partly due to the speculation of being listed on Coinbase. I think again this is due to the fact that it does improve upon the legacy systems in terms of speed and cost. It may become an effective SWIFT replacement. It just doesn't go beyond that, and doesn't touch upon the things that brought me into the cryptocurrency space, which is monetary sovereignty for ordinary people, and freedom from economic suppression. Ripple doesn't solve those kind of problems.
Time will tell which cryptocurrencies will be the biggest gainers. If Ripple gains, it will be because it is useful as a legacy system replacement for banks, not because it betters the world.
A short term investment, perhaps. But I don't think it's wise to invest short term, and I can think of better investment choices.
submitted by garycruzsf to RippleScam [link] [comments]

I am the creator of BitcoinDuLiban.org. I am on a mission to educate Lebanese about the importance and usefulness of Bitcoins in their lives. AMA

What is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin (₿) (ticker BTC)is an open source cryptocurrency. It is a decentralized cryptographic currency without a central bank or single administrator in control that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for 3rd person in between like bank, or payment processor or institution all transaction processing and verification is carried out collectively by the network.
Find out more at http://www.bitcoinduliban.org/

Why Bitcoin is the future?

Bitcoin emerged in 2009 as more economies across the world started losing trust in the current banking model. Institutions that have been around longer than ourselves have changed very little throughout our lifetime. Not only does the lack of trust, and stagnant change of banks allow Bitcoin to thrive, but also the possibility of eliminating inflation. Bitcoin saw the opportunity to take the power out of the institutions and provide a better service, and the people responded. Bitcoin operates universally, meaning for the first time, there is a possibility of a global currency. With truly international currency possibilities for global economic growth, social equality, self-sovereignty is endless.

Why Bitcoin and not others?

It is a very good question, there at the moment of writing over 2000 projects and “coins” that emerged after Bitcoin. Many of them claim to be faster, better and more flexible than Bitcoin however very few have withstood the test of time or delivered their proposed product. The basic fundamentals of Bitcoin’s principle monetary policy are unprecedented, and by now, it is impossible to replicate its level of decentralization or network security, which is powered by a computer network as powerful as almost 12 trillion Intel Core i7 processors. Bitcoin also has the largest social / community strength. I would HIGHLY advise against investing or getting dragged into any project that claims superiority, I have single rule : if it says it's better than Bitcoin then its what we call “scam-coin” you will only get pulled in and lose your bitcoin/usd value causing a lot of pain and sadness . Sit down, read, learn and be patient, you will not miss out on anything over night and if something is rising in price quickly most likely it will crash as fast.

Does bitcoin have an applicable use in daily life or is it only for holding for future gains?

Bitcoin has taken over the cryptocurrency market. It’s the largest and most well-known digital currency today. Many large companies are accepting Bitcoin as a legitimate source of funds, you can use your Bitcoin at but not limited to : KFC, Burger King, Microsoft, AT&T , Expedia, Subway, Twitch, Virgin Galactic and many more just look it up. You can look up merc and services at https://spendabit.co/ So if you are living abroad, you can use your bitcoin just like any other known currency in addition there are Debit cards in collaboration with VISA network offers that are backed by Bitcoin making you able to pay with it anywhere in the world just with a swipe or tap.

As Lebanese in Lebanon, how can I buy or sell bitcoin ?

In Lebanon unfortunately we can not use our banking system to purchase bitcoin, there was a time where rain.bh an UAE based exchange was accepting Lebanese Cards, till it was stopped but give it a try we weren’t able to confirm all cards.
Therefore most common way to buy bitcoin in lebanon is using P2P which is person to person exchange, this can be through an international website such as localbitcoins.com or hodlhodl.com , all you gotta do is find a sell offer initiate transaction with seller , send him his payment using WesterUnion or Moneygram and once the seller receives payment your bitcoins will be released but make sure you use escrow service which ensures safety of your transaction therefore bitcoins you are buying are frozen for the seller and he can not retrieve them unless you fail to pay or run out of time window to pay. Another p2p way is through local bitcoin communities , there are plenty of traders willing to exchange with you however always ask for the reputation of the seller inside a group and never respond to private messages unless it is a confirmed reliable trader just to avoid losing and being scammed. Feel free to find out more about how to buy in Lebanon at http://www.bitcoinduliban.org/

If I have a bank account outside Lebanon, can I use bitcoin to transfer money from Lebanon to my bank account outside?

It is possible to transfer Bitcoin to an international account in the USA or EU for example, you would need to use recognized exchanges such as coinbase.com kraken.com and many others. It would be as simple as sending BTC to your coinbase account, converting to USD and withdrawing it to your account. However you must take few precautions, if you are sending a significant amount of BTC and converting it to USD you will need some kind of proof that these funds are yours otherwise you might get investigated for money laundering. So is it convenient to send ? I do not think so, if you managed to get what we call now in Lebanon “ Fresh USD” it would be much less of a hassle to simply initiate an international transaction.

Why would I want to send Bitcoin to my family or friends in Lebanon ?

This is where I believe BTC can shine for us, you can use exchanges as coinbase,kraken or any prefered place to purchase some bitcoin that can be transferred to your family wallet within minutes. Your family or friends can exchange bitcoin or part that is needed with local traders to LBP at desired exchange rate therefore you are not forced to exchange at rates given by WesterUnion, after which they will be able to do their daily purchases and mitigate inflation rates to some extent. You can send as little as $1 and the transaction costs less than $1 for any amount.

Why is the Bitcoin price so volatile ?

Indeed it can be, sudden swings of 20% both ways are considered normal if you look at daily data, however bitcoin since 2009 had only one trend which is upward, 80% chance is if you bought BTC at any moment in past 2 years is that you are on break even or positive not loss. Feel free to try this exercise by going to https://dcabtc.com/

Should I invest?

NO. Now since we got the short version of this, let me elaborate. By the end of the day it is a new class of an asset, the price is still in the discovery phase and it could cause a lot of pain and sleepless nights if you invest more than you can chew to possibly lose. No one can advice you what to do with your money and how to position them, however i highly encourage to read, educate yourself on money before investing in BTC a good start would be https://bitcoinduliban.org. Please ask more knowledgeable bitcoin users and double check sources , once you feel confident enough that you understand this monetary system you can try dipping your toes with small amounts and build your position from there. Just stay away from quick gains schemes such as “online mining” “cloud mining” and anything that offers 100% returns in a very short time, if it's too good to be true then it's a scam.

Scams, BE AWARE.

Due to our difficult situation we are being targeted by constant advertisement of potential new solutions using “newly developed cryptocurrencies“ , unfortunately such new technology does not exist and they are trying to take advantage of us by promising fake solutions.
Even Bitcoin can not provide you with a solution to your hard worked money being inaccessible in any Lebanese bank.
Here are few typical scam msgs:
submitted by marceldy to lebanon [link] [comments]

35 years old. 3.5MM net-worth (mostly from crypto). Feel like I don't deserve to FIRE.

TL;DR: Guy has a great job for many years. Gets big crypto windfall at the height of his career. Now feels like his job is pointless and trying to figure out life. Boo hoo feel bad for him. I'm such an idiot.
I'll keep this quick(ish) for all of us short attention span havers. I'm 35 years old, I have a career in a field where I get to be a creator (sort of a YouTuber, sort of an artist, sort of a "travel guide", sort of a filmmaker, sort of an on-camera personality, BUT I have bosses telling me the kind of stuff to make). I was obsessed with this job/industry for the better part of a decade. For many years I got lots of travel, nice hotels shooting in foreign locations, eating nice dinners and lots of admiration and respect from peers and colleagues. I watched my income grow from mid $30k to literally 10x that over the span of 7 years. And, fortunately, I never acquired a taste for expensive things (save for some industry gear). So that meant I was saving a LOT of my income yearly. Well on my way to FI/FatFI before I even knew about this philosophy of investing.
In 2014, I discovered bitcoin. Please, please. I know that many here think bitcoin in a huge speculative gamble and after riding through a major UP and DOWN, you are preaching to the choir. Regardless, I love the idea of it and fell deep down the rabbit hole– reading and watching every bit of content I could find. Over the span of a year and a half I put ALMOST everything I saved into it– figuring my earnings would set me back ahead even if it tanks. (Again, I crazy/foolish I know). Long story short, the bull run hits in 2017, and I can't fucking believe it. Over the course of 6 months, hands shaking, I cashed out (after tax) about 2.8 million. I didn't even sell at the top.
Around this time, I was trying to learn how to "live off the interest", get off that crazy rollercoaster, invest RESPONSIBLY– I discovered FIRE, and was like "holy shit" this is it! I jammed everything into a simple three fund index-based portfolio of US Equity/Foreign Equity/Bonds.
I kept working (way less) for almost 2 years after that, but everything mentally changed. Suddenly, once the monetary excitement was stripped from doing work, all the other pluses felt...dull. Like, I can get "nice hotels", "lots of travel", "good dinners" etc... without a job now.
I hit 3.5 million this year and have been taking a break completely from work for 9 months now. Traveling, contemplating, philosophizing, visiting friends, leaning into hobbies/pastimes and honestly trying to figure out what my life means to myself and others now that at a 3.8% SWR, after tax, I can SPEND/DONATE $10,000/month forever. That's my needs, wants and then some. Why would I do anything that a boss/client/manager wants me to do when...I don't have to?
I'm at the same mental place a LOT of people get to when they hit their number. The problem is two-fold, One, I used to looove my job and it was a source of lots of excitement in my life. Hard to recreate that with just money, but I also don't feel like doing the work it takes just to get the high status stuff. Two, I don't feel like I deserve this at all because I got here earlier with a lucky bet on crypto. I would have definitely gotten here, but maybe in my 40s and I would have felt I actually earned it.
Basically, it feels like I used a cheat code on my life and now I'm not sure how to make it fun again. And don't feel like I "deserve" to FIRE. This is such an unrelatable problem, but I thought this nonjudgemental community might have some insights or nuggets of wisdom.
submitted by btcchangedmylife to financialindependence [link] [comments]

A Market Liquidity Theory of the Current Financial Crisis

Huge update from the Fed this morning: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200323b.htm
I'm not going to have a chance to look through this in detail this morning, but it looks like the Fed might be engaging in a massive loan program and taking just about anything as collateral.
This is going to be a long post and analysis that I have written as much to get my thoughts in order as much to post on here for any feedback or criticism.
Essentially, like many on here, I do not believe that the current situation is a temporary down-turn, but a full blown financial crisis. We have already been hit with the initial shock of this crisis, so the question becomes: what comes next? Helping us understand what is fundamentally happening in the market will aid in making intelligent future predictions and investments. That leads to the question: what exactly is happening in the market right now? What caused us to suddenly drive off a cliff? And is there any way we can save it? Unlikely many here, I do not believe that COVID-19 is the actual underlying crisis. In my opinion, our economy was basically the end stages of a Jenga game, and COVID-19 is just the swift breeze knocking the whole thing over.
As I started looking for the next big market move, I started to wonder who was going to feel the most pain in these markets. Some reading led me to the thought that what we were seeing in the markets was a liquidity issue, and that companies with poor credit ratings will be most affected. I posted about this a couple of days ago, and several others came to the same conclusion as me. 1 2 3. There are other obliviously other problems in the market at the moment, but this analysis will focus on this problem in particular.
I now strongly believe that this hypothesis was correct, even if my initial reasoning and analysis was flawed. I outline a theory, followed by some supporting evidence, and finally some speculation. Finally, I don't think the Fed understands the actual problem the market is facing right now, nor does it have the tools to deal with it.
There are three prerequisites here: repos, collateral transformation, and rehypothecated collateral
Variation-Separate has already written an excellent technical analysis, and explains repos in part I. I will assume you have already read that section. 2
The basic idea behind collateral transforms is this: Your company needs some short-term liquid cash. In order for someone to give you this cash, you need collateral. You only have risky assets (such as junk bonds), but no one will accept them as collateral precisely because they are risky. Everyone in the market wants a secure asset (such as a Treasury). Instead of giving up, you go out and find someone who will loan you their Treasury and accept your junk bonds as collateral. You then use that Treasury to obtain the cash you need. This process can be repeated among many parties in order to create a "collateral chain".
Finally, we have rehypothecated collateral: Someone comes to you and wants to borrow an assets for a short period of time (such as a stock). They give you another asset (such as cash) as collateral in exchange for the stock. You know the borrower won't be back to collect this collateral for a while, so you invest that collateral to make money off of it in the meantime.
As Variation-Separate explains, there have been problems in the repo market recently, and the Fed has acted as the believe appropriate. However, this is not the first time the Fed has run into this problem . In fact, we had a problem a problem in the repo market just in Sept 2019 and "Not only did the spike in the repo rate come as a surprise to the New York Fed, but they also haven't been able to normalize it as quickly as they thought they could". Finally, let's consider that even though the fed has offered to pump massive amounts of liquidity into the market, banks aren't taking it and are quickly repaying that which they do take.
What exactly is going on then? The Fed tries to pump liquidity into the economy, and nothing happens. The reason for this is that the Fed knows that it doesn't understand the underlying problem in the market, and knows that is powerless to stop it. The Fed is trying to unleash every tool in its toolbox on the hope that if it just throws enough money into the market, eventually the problem will go away.
So what is the root problem? Essentially, liquidity. More specifically, collateral transformations and rehypothecated collateral. In fact, this has been written about extensively: 4 5, with Snider in particular making a strong case that today's crisis fits the analysis of the collateral markets that he provided in 2018: 6
How are collateral transformations and rehypothecated collateral affecting liquidity in the markets? There are numerous ways, but let's start with 2:
Let's say someone gives you cash as collateral, and you rehypothecate it as described in the example. However, instead of putting the cash in a safe asset, knowing you have to repay it, you put it in a very risky, high-yield asset such as a junk bond or MBS. Things go wrong, you lose your money and can't pay back your end of the repo. This is exactly what AIG did during the 2008 crisis. 7
Now let's say you engage in a long chain of collateral transformations. You start with a really risk assets, trade that for a sligtly less risky asset, trade that for a moderately risky asset, etc, until you eventually get a pristine asset. Now anyone along that chain can rehypothecate their collateral into some risky investment, causing a huge number of problems. Not to mention that if you, for some reason, can't fulfill your end of the repo, you screw a whole chain of people who have traded with you.
Now, if we are in a strong market, these problems won't arise too often. But what happens if, say, a virus comes out of now where causing wide-spread economic disruptions? Now, maybe those risky investments that would have paid out more often than not aren't pay out at all, causing systemic problems.
Now let's add a couple of things that exacerbate this problem even further:
These chains get so complicated that no one even knows who owns which assets anymore 4
When these chains collateral transformations start to fail, people may become less willing to take the risk of engaging in them 5
All of this caused heavy regulation on the exchange of collateral by primary lenders after the 2008 crisis. This has pushed these transactions into dark markets where we don't really understand what is going on. Here is my hypothesis, heavily taken from Snider's analysis:
Corporations have become heavily reliant on short-term lending for liquidity. However, most of them don't have pristine assets to exchange for cash, or DisneyBucks to float them through hard times. So what to do? You engage in collateral transformations: keep exchanging your junk assets until you get the pristine assets you need to get liquid cash. A bunch of corporations do this over and over again, and eventually they really don't have a clear of idea of what assets they really own.
Further, in these collateral chains they are rehypothecating collateral to make a quick buck. All is well, until this virus comes along. Suddenly, corporations are losing their collateral in these risky investments. Further, they need cash. The first thing they do is try to transform their collateral for short term liquidity. However, a bunch of people have just lost their money playing this game and don't want to play anymore, so it becomes more difficult and expensive for the companies to engage in these collateral transformations. The assets they have are worth less, so they have to sell other assets to compensate. However, everyone is doing this at the same time, devaluing the assets. Devaluation of assets makes it even more expensive to engage in collateral exchanges, and the cycle continues. Finally, when these companies take account of their actual assets, after all of these complicated exchanges, they realize they don't actually own what they think they own, creating additional panic when they are already in crisis mode. This causes huge turmoil, and the markets fall off a cliff.
If this theory is correct, what will we see next? Whether the markets will go up or down is dependent on too many factors to predict. However, I do have some speculation. First let's categorize corporations as follows:
Type I: Safe
Large banking institutions
Large P-1/A-1/F1+ Companies
Companies with huge cash reserves
Type II: Possibly Safe
Small businesses
"Essential" business (i.e., Boeing)
Type III: Doomed
Business with >500 employees, no large cash reserves, not P-1/A-1/F1+
The self-employed
Type I businesses will certainly weather the storm. If they don't have the direct support of the Fed, they have large cash reserves on hand. If they don't have large cash reserves on hand, they have the credit rating to make use of corporate paper. They can find the short term funding needed to make it through this.
Type II businesses may be safe depending on the government response. I am currently underwhelmed by the "support" for small business in the stimulus bill, but there seems to at least be talk about this so maybe things will change. "Essential" businesses may receive a bailout to get them through tough times.
Type III businesses are completely screwed, no one seems to know they are even there. They won't qualify for support as "small businesses", and they have no way of obtaining liquid assets in this market. In particular, the larger businesses don't have the pristine assets to obtain liquidity in these markets, they are dependent on collateral transforms.
I won't predict whether the markets will go up or down this week, next, etc. But I will speculate this: I think the calm we saw in the markets was an actual calm. I think there was panic as businesses tried to obtain liquidity. They now believe they have the liquidity to make it through the near future, and are satisfied. There could be fire-sales in the near term for other reasons, but I don't think short-term liquidity will be the cause. However, most corporations don't speculate very hard when it comes to the future: they listen to the "experts". And these "experts" in government and the financials have been predicting doom and gloom for the next couple weeks, but that things will "bounce back" afterward. This is flatly false. As this becomes more apparent to these companies, I think we'll see another run on the market.
Particularly, it will be the large Type III business that will be the most vulnerable. They won't have any government stimulus support, and they won't have access to their normal modes of obtain cash. The last panic in the markets pushed bond yields so high that issuing new bonds will be completely out of the question. For them, it will be like a game of chess where your 4 moves away from being mated no matter what you do. Many of them will decide that bankruptcy is the best option in front of them.
Can the Fed prevent this? I don't think so. The Fed has the ability to soak up P-1/A-1/F1+, but they can only do this through the banks. But the banks aren't the ones in trouble this time, its the market itself. I have not read anything that leads me to believe that the Fed would be able to purchase junk assets from non- P-1/A-1/F1+ corporations without an act of Congress, and Congress is too slow and incompetent to see this problem coming or fix it in time. The Colosseum will be protected as Rome burns around it.
Sorry for any typos, poor wording. This was a long post.
submitted by the_asker_man to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Warning: Blockchain difficulty adjustment affecting price movements

Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
  1. 26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
  2. 8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
  3. The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.

Current situation:
We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment).
For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined).
There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip.
I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June.
Please visit the original post here https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/gm23pe/warning_blockchain_difficulty_adjustment/
There are pictures in the original post as well as 2nd halving evidence with pics. I could not post pics here. If possible please upvote the original post, a lot of people downvote it. Not sure why people downvote it, maybe veterans attempting to hide information from newcomers to fleece them of their shirt.

Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!<
Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA.
On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%.
On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%.
On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min.
My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much.
Update 3: Current BTC price at $9100 ( ~39 hours after DA). Then again BTC could have dropped from all sorts of reason. However the coincidence with the DA and with all the past DA is just too high to simply shrug off as irrelevant. Anyways past result cannot predict future ones, stay safe with the trading. Will no longer check on this post.
References:
Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff
Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap.
Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time

Credits to people who assisted the analysis:
kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th.
babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget
moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/
Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
submitted by theforwardbrain to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Balancing off capital gains tax

It's been shit year for a lot of people.
I might need to sell some traditional assets at a loss. I have small Bitcoin that I acquired years back that would have to be considered for capital gains.
Could I balance the two off to avoid paying tax? How soon after I have done this can I rebuy the Bitcoin in the eyes of USA tax authorities?
I would essentially be wanting to use the loss on the sake of the traditional capital gains to reset my investment in Bitcoin starting at modern prices if that makes sense.
Edit: I actually want to hold Bitcoin so I want to be out of the Bitcoin market for as short a period as possible whilst being tax compliant for the purposes possible.
submitted by Jyontaitaa to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Long term moonshot

I have shilled here for a while BSOV, but my last call was from 0.02$ to a max 0.17$ on uniswap and 0.11$ on Mercatox
Before any comment read what I have to say, BSOV have ultra small marketcap, (~50k), that mean that smallest buy leads to a huge pump, also it doesn't fall behind of 0.02$ because is a minable hodling token, so there are many people with small bags and huge bags locked on BSOVCube for years. This people doesn't have weak hands, they have hodled for 1 year now, so is more safe than your average scammy centralized tokens
Its currently possible to buy really cheap if you have patience, and sell high because is highly volatile due the low liquidity, if you can find the sweetspots for buying and selling you can profit. There are also arbitrage oportunities, I just bough on uniswap for 0.0008eth and sold on idex for 0.00124eth.
Also there isn't dump danger, the biggest hodler is the [timelocked contract for 10 years](https://etherscan.io/token/0x26946ada5ecb57f3a1f91605050ce45c482c9eb1#balances), the second biggest hodler is a guy with 1.2%, the third one is the Mercatox wallet and the fourth one the burning address, and the next is a guy with 0.5% (90k tokens)
If you know how this works, you'll know that this is a low risk coin for the high profit that can provide
Also, if you don't want to trade at short term you can hold a small bag or lock it on the smart contract, this project was tought for long term, but each one have their own strategy
ATTENTION, if you want to sell it on UNISWAP you need to set a slippage of 1% (bc the 1% deflation model)
Telegram channel: https://t.me/BitcoinSoVCommunity
Website: http://bsov.io
submitted by Kike328 to CryptoMoonShots [link] [comments]

GoatFish a bot framework for leveraged crypto trading

So I wanted to get into algo-trading last year, more specifically in crypto, but I didn't want to simply spot buy and sell crypto assets, imo those markets lack liquidity, and liquidity is king
So I decided to build a bot for leveraged trading of Bitcoin. Long story short, I saw a gap in the market: no one had built a bot framework for leveraged trading in crypto.
So thats just what Ive been doing in my free time over the past year, and since it's almost done. I think now is the time for fellow enthusiast to take a look and rip it apart.
A bit of context, on what the tool does and is:
Background GoatFish is meant to be an infrastructure that allows you to dynamically run custom code in a vacuum (a docker container). while taking care of all the other elements of algotrading for you. All the streaming information from the exchange, all the order setting, backtesting, paperTrading.... is carried out an an application layer and the user doesn't have to worry about it.
Exchanges Currently it only supports Bitmex, but it is structured to be able to add any an all exchanges a user may want to add with very little effort(as long as its leveraged trading).
Strategies All you need to deploy a strategy is:
This information will then be used to keep track of all your positions all of your orders and automatically connect the strategy to the chosen exchange, and submit/cancel/ammend orders when necessary.
Additionally the bot functionality allows you to dynamically switch between actions. A bot can just as easily:
  1. livetrade
  2. papertrade
  3. backtest
  4. stop
Analytics The application provides real time analytics and scoring your strategies against each other.
Progress As it stand the application is a series of dockerised endpoints that communicate through kafka. They each all work together and individually to deploy and run strategies. How ever usage at the moment is limited o how knowledgable you are of the endpoints and their use, so I will be starting the development of a CLI with accompanying documentation to make it more accessible.
Im also very much aware the code is not perfect, but it does fairly well, a test strategy has been running a trade/min for the last 22 days with out any downtime. That being said I know it can be very much improved and welcome any and all suggestions.
Oh and ofc it's open sourced! Here you have the link: GoatFish
submitted by Lucasxhy to algotradingcrypto [link] [comments]

27 years old, retired for 5 years. Trying to retire again in a timely matter. Please advise.

I moved out of my parents house and started going to college full time immediately upon graduating highschool. I graduated with a BBA in Finance in 2015. I will admit that during my college years I was not very committed to school or my career path. As such I didnt get the best gpa or land a quality internship in finance, although I did manage to get a pretty useless accounting internship where I basically did data entry. Once I graduated and my "internship" ended I applied for a couple analyst jobs and was unsuccessful in landing anything.
Even though I wasnt feeling motivated about my career was pretty unsuccessful thus far, I did have a stash of bitcoins. I began selling them off over the next few years and it was enough to sustain my life. I didnt work at all, just moved from place to place and traveled the country. Honestly it's been the time of my life, a mini retirement after college you could say. Luckily I didnt pull my whole investment at once because I was able to sell a handful of my coins in December of 2017 which was a good come up for me, as you can imagine. I was able to easily pay off my stundent loans with the money I made which only helped me further to not work or generate any income.
Shortly after this my partner purchased a "fixer upper" home on a 30 year morgage for 70,000 (midwest). I've since dumped about 60,000 of my own cash into it as well as months of sweat equity. The home is now livable, worth 200-225k, and we have 2 roommates that easily cover the morgage payment with their rent money. I drive a Prius which I own outright, doesnt coast anything to put gas in, cheap insurance, etc. I go without health insurance partly because I am extremely healthy, partly to save money, and partly because I am an idiot. My only true monthly cost is my phone bill and food.
I feel like I'm on track with my expenses but my income is essentially nothing and I have no work experience in the last 5 years. My assets are as follows; a couple stocks that I speculated on and invested in worth about 30k, a single bitcoin worth around 9k, 40k in unclaimed cash, and the equity in my house. I need some guidance on what to do next.
-how do I get back into a career after taking 5 years off of life? Should I try getting a very basic entry level job? Or should I pursue new knowledge in my field or a new field before starting into a career? Do I pursue a finance career or should I try to move into something more tech or data related?
-given that the value of my house is significantly higher than it was at the time of purchase is there anything I should do to capitalize on that?
-should I dump my stocks and invest that money into a fund?
-any ideas on what to do with the cash I have accumulated that cant go into a bank account?
Im currently feeling very motivated about earning an income and saving for another retirement but I also feel very lost about how to begin doing that. Any help or advice is greatly appreciated. If there is another sub I should post this in, please let me know.
submitted by trenusingtreebeard to personalfinance [link] [comments]

Don't Fight the Trend (Sidenote - Fuck r/investing)

TF, like these corn balls out here removing posts that have any bit of a bear thesis? lmao
Getting to the point of my post, The Trend is Down....
Compiling data of closing points every two weeks from the start of 2020, each of the indexes are down-trending for the year & Bitcoin as well. Now the graphs which I've attached here hold little/next to no weight when looking for an indication on what position to take/when, but it's a piece of the puzzle when talking about the outlook for 2020.
Another piece to the puzzle, since that 'judgement day' post (referencing something I posted 3 weeks ago on investing, would link but that got removed along with my post on april 19th warning the clowns in there that they shouldn't be buying into USO/investing in oil lmfao); we have seen 6 green trading days & 9 red trading days on the S&P, signaling to me that investors are favoring selling in the 280-295 range much more so than buying. While the S&P has rallied above 290 on the back of NASDAQ/MAGA movement, it hasn't broken into/through this range with any conviction at all, it's actually forming a head and shoulder top in the trading range - seen here.
Further Dissecting the SPY - Price action is currently bouncing between the 50 & 200 EMA (EMA is quite significant as it weighs the price around volume traded, while SMA's simply calculate based on closing price day-to-day.) Friday's close placed us right under the 200 EMA (I view it as the ceiling currently.) and would point to downside come open market on monday (tomorrow.) *At the time of this post, futures opened with a gap down to 291 and has bounced back up to test this 2940 resistance. Will they push it above for a proper bull break before US markets open? Perhaps, maybe the bulls get their 300 touch; However, I see the indicators hinting to downside more convincing atm.*
Further DD of 'leading indicators' when looking at ST trends (DXY, BTC, XLF) -
XLF - (4Hr chart, rather than daily.) The Financial sector has been getting absolutely SLAMMED, like seriously, its almost worse than the beatdowns the small-caps have been receiving. Imo, this questionable performance from the financial sector says A LOT when considering investor uncertainty at the moment. On the four hour, this sector is currently bouncing between the 50 & 200 EMA's as they pinch closer together; which you could say is bullish, however, any and all uptrends on the chart have been broken & it leaves the financials out in no mans land (bearish.) It's currently pressed against it's 'LT' downtrend line (Established in early January after COVID was 'open public info'.) and made a double top rejection off of 23.70.
BTC- Touched 10k & crashed over 10% this weekend. As seen in the first screenshot I attached, BTC has been trading almost side by side with the general markets (Most reflective when looking at the S&P or NASDAQ.) I believe this to be a leading indicator of downside ahead similarly to how it was a leading indicator in mid-march when gauging 'how much downside was left in the markets.'
DXY - Key when considering short term deflation/inflation of assets. Has broken out above an immense resistance & has been confirming this as new support (people are hoarding cash, much more than they're spending, contrary to popular belief; I wont comment much tho, because tracking the DXY can get complex quick. We're taking it at face value here.) Watch for another major breakout (Would signify people hoarding cash, most likely stocks are getting liquidated at that same time. Comparing the timeline of the last breakout, March 9th- March 20th, this was the same timeline which the S&P took its major leg down from 300-220.)
TLDR - Stonks do go down, they've been maxing out for the last three weeks & deflation is around the corner. Positions - Heavy SPXU & SQQQ positions, AMD $46p May 22nd/ $40p June 5th, XLF $20.5p May 22th, MGM $10p June 5th
submitted by EXLR8_Reddit to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

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For those looking to sell short Bitcoin, to earn a profit when its price falls, there are a few options available to you. Derivatives such as options or futures can give you short exposure, as Bitcoin Short Trading. One of the easiest ways to short BTC is by using an open digital assets market. Traders can directly short digital currency. A trader can sell tokens at an accessible price, wait until the price drops, and then buy the tokens again. If the price does not change as much as the trader wanted, he may also lose money. In order to short a futures contract, you can sell a call option or buy a put option through a brokerage account. Brokers like TDAmeritade and E*Trade support the buying and selling of Bitcoin futures through the CME and other futures exchanges. The tax treatment of short selling is similar to traditional buying and selling with a few In this case of a short, the seller could borrow additional bitcoin to sell, using their own funds as collateral, and then buy back the bitcoin from the market in the future to repay the loan To short Bitcoins, you need to contact a trading agency or platform and place a short sell order. The agency will then sell the Bitcoins from their own supply, based on the assumption that in the future you will repay them with an equal number of Bitcoins.

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