A simple explanation of how money moves around the banking
A simple explanation of how money moves around the banking
fiatleak | btc
Bitcoincharts | Charts
Bitcoin transaction: The Flow : Bitcoin
What will undoubtedly happen from a macroeconomic (big picture) perspective... idiots
OKAY. So demand has been reduced dramatically around the world, our $21 trillion GDP has basically been paused for 2 months, so to keep it afloat (rough math), the government had to add $3.5 trillion to keep the economy running somewhat smoothly. That's a lot of printing, you idiots probably expect inflation. Wrong, step away from the US and look at what other countries are doing, the ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ (Bank of Japan) are having to print trillions of dollars worth of EURO and YEN to keep their economies going, along with every other country getting pounded. Not only that, but since the US dollar makes up 70% of global transactions, in liquidity terms, trillions worth of euro and yen is MUCH MUCH more than any amount Jpow feels like printing, there's no way our printing could offset what the rest of the world is doing, so inflation isn't coming. If you want proof, just look at the euro/usd (going lower) and literally ANY emerging market currency is getting absolutely clapped vs the dollar. Furthermore, not only is US corporate debt at an all time high, but emerging markets, the eurozone, and asia has borrowed more dollars than ever before at any point in history, basically everyone around the world's debt is denominated in US DOLLARS. So what's about to happen? It's already happening, demand for US dollars is going up because everyone around the world wants to borrow more to offset cash flow concerns and pay off existing debts, which will cause the dollar to increase in value. What happens when the whole world has debt in dollars and the dollar goes up in value? DEBT BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE. This is DEFLATION, and in particular and even more terrifying DEBT DEFLATION, a phrase that would make Jpow absolutely shit himself (and he knows its coming). This has already started before the whole beervirus nonsense, look at Venezuela and Zimbabwe, they had too much dollar debt, no one wanted to lend to them anymore and whoops, their currency is worthless now. It's going to be like a game of musical chairs for people trying to get access to dollars, starting with emerging markets and eventually moving into the more developed economies. The result: massive corporate bankruptcies, countries defaulting on debt (devaluing their currencies) and eventually a deleveraging of massive proportions. This WILL occur and no amount of printing can stop it, it's already too far gone. It doesn't matter what the stock market does, other markets around the world will be fucked, honestly it might cause the market to go up because of all the money fleeing other countries trying to find a safe place to live. Here are the plays assholes. TLT will go up because no matter what Jpow says, he doesn't control the fed funds rate, the market does, and US treasury bond yields have already priced in bonds going negative. CPI shows that we may see up to -3% inflation (3% deflation), meaning at .25% fed funds rate, the REAL rate is 3.25%, that is the worst thing possible during a deleveraging because it makes it harder to stimulate the economy, the fed has no choice, rates MUST go lower. Rates go lower, bond prices go up, TLT 12/18 $205c. Remember how I said scared foreign money will want to find a nice safe place to go when we go into the biggest debt crisis the world has seen in over 300 years? GLD 12/18 $240c. Finally, the dollar will rise in value as well so UUP 12/18 $28c. As far the actual market, we hit a high of SPY 339.08 in February, fell to a low of 218.26 by mid March, and have since then retraced EXACTLY to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 290, and started to bounce lower from there. I'm no technical analyst, but I do know history. During the greatest crashes in stock market history, 1929, 2001, 2008, the Nikkei in 1989 (Japan) this exact same thing happened, market got scared and fell to lows, then smoked that good hopium for a few weeks or month to retrace between 50% and 61.8% back to previews highs, then absolutely fell off a cliff. If you don't believe me, go look at the charts. Now, I'm personally not going to be betting on the US market falling because of the fact that its just straight up not reflecting reality and there are much better ways to trade on what's occurring (see trades above), but I PROMISE, that we will not be seeing new highs at any point any time soon. TLDR; The world is going to shit due to the dollars over-dominance of the world market, we will soon see the worst deleveraging in human history, and may very well have to come up with a new fiat money system (probably not bitcoin, but it wouldn't hurt to have some). TLT 12/18 $205c, GLD 12/18 $240c, and UUP 12/18 $28c. If you wanna be an autist and buy weeklys, I can't help you, but I basically just gave you the next big short, so you're welcome. DISCLAIMER: I didn't say what price to buy at for a reason, timing is extremely important for trades like this, so don't FOMO in and overpay, you will get clapped.
Huge update to Cryptophyl - the SLP token exchange
Hi there, We've just released a big update to cryptophyl.com. The complete overhaul includes the addition of new features, a mobile-friendly trading interface and many design improvements. On top of this, we've just seen our biggest month yet of SLP token trading: almost $1M USD over April. What's new? Dark theme – We’ve introduced a dark theme which recolours the exchange interface so you can trade indoors without worrying about your eyes. The most requested feature we’ve had, you asked, and we delivered. Charts – We've added OHLC candle charts to the exchange so you can view price and volume data of all token trading since Cryptophyl launched last August. You can toggle between different periods and set the candle interval. Mobile friendly trading – We’ve revamped the mobile and desktop trading experience to a modern and responsive web application so you can trade comfortably on the move. Design improvements – We've refreshed the Cryptophyl logo, colours and typography, as well as redesigning the interface to maximise screen size, to provide a fresh user experience. Data availability – We've collected the most important trading and price information and have made it readily available from the dashboard – the core of the product. You can start trading, depositing and withdrawing with just a single click from here. API Keys – You can now generate API keys for programmatic trading directly on the platform. With lucrative arbitrage and market making opportunities existing in this nascent market, there is no better time than now to get started (view API documentation or create API Keys). Record trading volume In April we saw $900,000 USD worth of tokens traded over the month. The biggest markets were:
HonestCoin (USDH) - regulatory compliant 1:1 Backed USD stablecoin built on Bitcoin Cash = fast, cheap and stable border-less payments. We offer both BCH and BTC pairs. (Great explainer video why it's a nice alternative to USDT https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEiO3mwDwPQ)
Drop Token (DROP) - Cryptophyl's native exchange token which you can earn just for trading and gives you perks and features on the exchange.
Spice Token (SPICE) - a fun appreciation token used for tipping on social media, one of the first and most adopted SLP tokens.
What are SLP tokens? SLP is an emerging standard for issuing tokens on Bitcoin Cash. This means any token transactions are as scalable, fast and cheap as Bitcoin Cash . You can learn more about SLP tokens and how to quickly create your own token here: http://simpleledger.cash/ What's next for us? We're working to release Detoken - a trustless token exchange which allows you to buy, sell and trade tokens whilst always being in control of your private key! This means there is no centralised point of failure and you never have to trust us with your coins and tokens. The exchange will be open source. We're making it easy for wallets such as bitcoin.com to integrate Detoken into their product flow and we think it's going to be huge for the SLP token ecosystem! Thanks, Semyon, Founder and CEO, Cryptophyl.com
Upex.io invitaion code for 10% Trading fee disount
Apply our Upex.io invitation code ZGAEHV to get the signup benefits. UPEX Cryptocurrency Trading Application is a simple, secure and free application that can easily buy/sell cryptocurrency using mobile phones. or register using https://upex.io/register?inviteCode=ZGAEHV UPEX Exchange Platform - Cryptocurrency Trading Application! Freely Buy/Sell Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies Use UPEX application to easily and smoothly trade bitcoins and various cryptocurrencies, you can check the market of cryptocurrencies’ prices quickly, professional index analysis. We support the world's advanced asynchronous matching mechanism with a throughput of 50,000 units per second, memory-level matching engine and lock-free ring queue to ensure smooth experience in multiple markets and multiple trading pairs. Safety first UPEX adopts strict risk control system, so, all assets support backtracking. Alarm for abnormal activities of assets, timely detection of risk activities, abnormal asset risk warning, withdrawal blocking. DDoS Defense, distributed computing, flow cleaning. Product Features:
Multi-currency transactions: LTC/BTC, ETH/BTC, ETC/BTC, BTC/USDT, LTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, ETC/USDT, etc.
Professional K-line chart and analysis
Flexible trading methods: current price trading, market price trading, etc.
The Decred blockchain has a consistent baseload of demand for block-space, a result of the PoS ticket system and, more recently, on-chain CoinJoin privacy transactions. As such, the Realised Price metric differs in interpretation to Bitcoin. A strong conviction Decred holder actually has a regular and frequent on-chain signature moving DCR as opposed to the equivalent of long periods of dormancy for Bitcoin. The Realised Price tends to follow the spot price more closely, however lags behind the day-to-day fluctuations in off-chain price sentiment. The chart below presents an experimental metric that takes the 28-day gradient of the Market Cap and Realised Cap, and produces an oscillator from their difference (purple). This tool distills times where off-chain price momentum bias flips before the on-chain response as DCR is bound in tickets and takes time to transact. Where the oscillator crosses the zero level, it often precedes a shift in price momentum in the direction of the flip.\ https://preview.redd.it/6bu8nqznt3y41.png?width=1296&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd1226fab2e792ab72f95cc6ab8047c4c60f9b56
Insight 2 - NVT and RVT Ratio
As noted, Decred has a consistent transaction demand which also shows up as reliable NVT and RVT signals. These metrics take the ratio between network valuation (market cap or realised cap) and the adjusted daily transaction value flowing through the chain, all denominated in USD. The chart below presents the NVT and RVT both in 28-day and 90-day moving average format with sound agreement in trend and magnitude between all. During periods of bullish sentiment, we can observe low NVT|RVT ratios indicating that the chain is settling a substantial value relative to its network valuation, and vice-versa indicates bearish sentiment. Of particular interest is the period of strong demand for on-chain settlement since Aug 2019 at which point the CoinJoin privacy mix server came live. This provides valuable feedback for the community and developers regarding actual demand for the mixing service, and also gives miners a basis for future fee market expectations. https://preview.redd.it/w954rgnqt3y41.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&s=f86b365055caa125beaa5dfec7067a2ee5bb0e09
Insight 3 - Cumulative Transaction Volumes
Digging into transaction demand further, the area chart below shows the cumulative DCR settled on-chain through protocol history, divided into regular transactions (orange), ticket purchases (green) and CoinJoin mixes (red). The line charts to the right axis presents the daily transaction volume in DCR for ticket purchases and CoinJoins. It can be seen that the gradient of the area plot has steepened since the privacy mix service went live, confirming increased demand for block-space. There has been a steady uptick in DCR flowing through the anonymity set with around 110k DCR mined in CoinJoin transactions per day. This represents around 0.96% of the total circulating DCR supply in CoinJoins, and is substantial when compared to the 192k DCR that are mined into tickets daily (1.67% of circ. supply). https://preview.redd.it/y57bo6xrt3y41.png?width=1329&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bb4815052cd074ef06b33cc88c6d3f068c383b0
Insight 4 - Decred Treasury Flows
The Decred Treasury underpins the self-sovereign development of the protocol, and its accumulated value is subject to the market's pricing of DCR. To date, the treasury has spent a total of $7.625M bootstraping the network from genesis to now when pricing each outgoing transaction on the day of the spend. This represents around one third of the incoming DCR so far and 16% of the total DCR inflows that will occur via the block subsidy ending in year 2140. Based on a current DCR coin price of $14/DCR, the Treasury is capitalized with enough USD value to build another Decred (assuming $7.625M build cost) and can repeat that metric for each $12 uplift in DCR price given the current Treasury balance of 636.3k DCR. https://preview.redd.it/v914ebdst3y41.png?width=1339&format=png&auto=webp&s=6b6ee00a258f2a62be102b60ff3873c0417b99d1
Insight 5 - Treasury Vote Power
Finally, an interesting metric to gauge stakeholder governance power is to look at how much Treasury value is governed by each ticket in the PoS pool. The chart below presents the Treasury balance divided by the count of tickets in the pool (red), showing that each ticket commands decision making power of around 15.5 DCR. If we divided this by the purchase price of a ticket denominated in DCR (blue), governance power typically represents around 11% of the ticket value. Given tickets vote on average every 28 days, this means governance power on an annualised basis is equivalent to 143% of a typical ticket in value. https://preview.redd.it/lq1s5azst3y41.png?width=1334&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ffb7fd567b77eabe44d5ca3e26f0e271f87baa6
Decred Foundations - an hour of updates at Consensus Distributed - Tuesday May 12 - 1330 EST
Decred has an hour-long slot (along with many other projects) at Consensus Distributed, 1330-1430 NYC time on Tuesday May 12th. Event link: https://next.brella.io/events/consensusdistributed/schedule/118434 To attend the event and watch live it seems (unfortunately) necessary to register on brella.io, even to read the event description. I am pasting it below. Videos will be available on the coindesk website afterwards, and an extended edition of Checkmate's segment will be made available on Youtube. Construct - Building the Decred Ecosystem In this segment, Richard Red checks in with the developers who are leading on some of Decred's most exciting sub-projects. Luke Powell will give an update on Politeia, which is the basis for the Decred proposals site and contractor management system. Matheus Degiovanni will give us the latest on the Decred Lightning Network, catching up with Bitcoin’s lnd development and scoping out the areas where Decred’s LN can go that Bitcoin’s cannot. We'll be catching up with Jon Chappelow (chappjc) and Brian Stafford (buck) who lead development on dcrdex and dcrdata. dcrdex is software for an atomic swap based decentralized exchange with no trading fees and no token that anyone can set up and run a server for, and in this session, the lead developers explain what that’s all about, and give an update on progress ahead of the imminent pre-alpha test. dcrdata is a block explorer that provides incredible depth of information about the Decred chain, including a variety of specialized overviews and charts related to Decred’s voting systems. Dcrdata has been expanding to cover additional data sources, integrating market data, and adding features like an attack cost estimator which allows configuration of PoW and PoS parameters to model the likelihood of success in real-time. Buck will also give an update on TinyDecred, the python toolset that was his personal project until it was adopted by the Decred stakeholders last year. Trade Secrets - Decred On-chain Analytics with Checkmate Checkmate gives a whistle-stop tour of 5 key indicators for monitoring the health of the Decred ecosystem and conviction of stakeholders. The presentation covers the history of the Decred chain through the lens of:
realized value and its relation to market valuation
rolling USD sum of ticket value
block subsidy valuation models (miners put the bottom in)
demand for transaction capacity and block space
treasury flows and voting power per ticket
Changelog - 365 Decred Days Decred co-founder and lead project organizer Jake Yocom-Piatt will deliver a presentation covering the highlights of the last year. Jake will review the consensus rules changes that have been approved and activated by Decred stakeholders over the last year, which have served to better support the Lightning Network and Simplified Payment Verification. The presentation will also cover the adoption of these improvements in the Decrediton GUI wallet and mobile wallets, bringing new levels of security and privacy to the latter. The initial privacy tooling release and its uptake will also be considered. There will also be a review of the year's Treasury spending, efforts to develop the consensus changes to decentralize Treasury spending, and the integration of the Contractor Management System (CMS) with the Politeia proposals platform. The presentation will also look ahead to the future, with the DCR DEX coming online soon and some more consensus rule change proposals in the pipeline. Following the 15 minute presentation, there will be a live 10 minute Q&A session with Lucas Nuzzi of Coinmetrics
It was in the year 2017, cryptocurrencies skyrocketed to the next level. But, the future of Cryptocurrency is still getting plenty of predictions every moment. People from different domains have started looking for these predictions. In December 2017, Bitcoin broke the trading charts by surging up to $20k, and became the most worthy cryptocurrency to the world. Even though Cryptocurrencies will impact the future — the regulations will keep getting tighter. Countries like United States, United Kingdom, Australia have accepted Cryptocurrencies. In future, there are chances that other countries will come forward and accept Cryptocurrencies. We are all hoping that countries like – Mexico, Thailand, and South Africa will take the necessary steps to make crypto legal and adopt the Blockchain. But, what do cryptocurrencies hold for us in the next decade? Here are the 10 fabulous predictions for the future of crypto’s. Everyone will start to use Cryptocurrencies — and they may not even be aware of it. Though it has been a decade since the arrival of Cryptocurrencies, there are people who aren’t aware of it. They make use of the traditional method of transactions to manage the money flow. In the future, businesses will start using Cryptocurrencies to pay for their services. With this, businesses will remove the middleman from various processes. And it will reduces costs and makes their services cheaper for the end user. All this will happen even when people aren’t aware of the cryptocurrencies. Bitcoins will hit $1 million. John McAfee has predicted a very bold thought about Bitcoin hitting $1 million by the end of 2020. He believes that, crypto currencies are the most trusted ones. Once the Bitcoin takes over the global economy, the demand will increase and the traditional dollars will no longer be needed. The owner of Snapchat, Jeremy Liew and Blockchain co-founder Peter Smith predicts that by 2030, the price will have reached $500.000. In the future, Bitcoin will act as Remittances for many people. Lack of knowledge can make the people buy Bitcoins as a safer mode of investment similar to Gold. With smartphone transactions, half of the world will march towards non-cash transactions by the year 2030. Cryptocurrencies will replace Fiat currencies. According to Draper, one of the Crypto Enthusiast has recorded his view on the same. He says Fiat currencies will disappear as people will start marching towards cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc. The major reason for this adoption is people believe cryptocurrencies as the reliable storages of value across country borders and political aspects. If you consider the most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, it has reached the top 30 currencies list by passing the $10.000 hallmark. Thus, most of the experts predict Cryptocurrencies are here to stay by being an alternative for Fiat Currencies. Moreover, it is said that the total lifespan of fiat currencies will be at a maximum of five years. Government Agencies will soon adopt Blockchain Technology. Countries with SEC Guidelines will start adopting Cryptocurrencies for their Governments. Currently, Government agencies are maintaining a separate database. Each agency is dependent on the other for its processes. This has been a tedious process nowadays. When Blockchain comes into the picture, the distributed ledger can provide effective data management to enhance the process and make it simplified. In the next ten years, we can expect powerful cryptocurrencies to rule the Governments and manage the cash flow in the country. Crypto enthusiasts predict Government agencies will soon start adopting this Decentralized systems for their processes. For example, the Estonian Government has already adopted Blockchain Technology called X-Road, which stores the complete credentials of all citizens. Future of Cryptocurrencies will integrate with Internet of Things. IoT is already here. When both these giants get combined, we can expect a fantastic future of technologies without any doubts. According to the recent report by IDC, it is expected that Blockchain Technology will join their hands with the Internet of Things soon. The primary motto of the integration is to render a highly scalable and secure framework for communication between IoT devices. Yet another thing is Cryptocurrencies have the stability to make micro-investments for smart devices in an efficient way. Cryptocurrency Exchanges Trading. The Trading enthusiasts in the crypto world are marching towards cryptocurrency exchanges for trading. In the near future, more cryptocurrencies will come into existence. With the growth in the price of cryptocurrencies, users will start trading with different currencies. As Bitcoin is the popular cryptocurrency till the date, Ripple will also emerge to be the next Bitcoin in the future years. Along with this, Ethereum, Litecoin, Stellar will start to uprise their prices. As the price starts rising, it will have a great impact on crypto exchanges and the crypto world. Banking and Financial industries will undergo disruption. Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies have a lot to do with Banking and Financial sectors. Banks will eventually accept cryptocurrencies to reduce their complexities. Here are a few things cryptocurrency will do: People will start opening Cryptocurrency Bank Accounts. Cryptocurrency Debit cards will become a normal thing. Instead of withdrawing money, one can buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies directly from ATM’s. Banks will be ready to offer cryptocurrency loans to suitable candidates. Cryptocurrencies will make an instant process. Do you want to send money back to your parents living on the other side of the world? It will just require 5 seconds to send your $5000 to them with fewer transaction fees. You don’t need to wait for 3 days to fill their pockets. In addition to the fast transactions, Blockchain Technology will bring in the feature of downloading or file transfer within seconds. Blockchain copies of games, music, videos, books will be sent to your cryptocurrency wallets at a higher speed which would eliminate today’s file transfer services. New Cryptocurrencies will start emerging. Though Bitcoins, Ethereum, Litecoins are ruling the world for now as they are the first Blockchain products invented. Innovations don’t stop here! Most of the new cryptocurrencies will start emerging and the future lies with them. These cryptocurrencies will be far different from the present ones. Just imagine a cryptocurrency which can identify the individual’s reputation and lets you in investing in them! Great right? No wonder that we aren’t far away from it! Cryptocurrencies will still be volatile. Despite the measures to stop volatility, Cryptocurrencies will still implement the factors to eliminate it. The major factors for low volatility are regulation of the country and the markets. But when cryptocurrency trading emerges at its peak, cryptocurrencies would experience a deep feeling of relief.
The past month of price action in the cryptocurrency markets has been extreme, with Decred price action being no exception. This week we look at a number of key metrics which have reached extreme values, often associated with the formation of price bottoms, reflexivity, and mean reversion. The first metric is the Stock-to-Flow model which was developed by the author. This model considers a log-log regression fit between Market Cap and the Stock-to-flow ratio of the Decred coin supply. The S2F Multiple is also shown which functions as an oscillator, indicating when network valuation has become oveundervalued relative to the S2F 'fair value' model. Following the price drop on 12/Mar, the DCR S2F multiple has entered the historical low zone last seen in Jan 2017. https://preview.redd.it/7o6dzb47r5r41.png?width=1528&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8b2f077ffe090dfa3746b2b514c0db63dcd91ee
Insight 2 - Stock-to-Flow Residuals
The next chart shows the statistical distance between the Decred Market Cap and the predicted S2F model valuation, measured in standard deviations. For reference, an equivalent S2F model for Bitcoin is shown, with some interesting similarities in the fractals playing out in Decred's price discovery. It can be seen for both networks, that as network value approaches ~2x standard deviations from the prediction, price tends to snap back towards the mean. For Bitcoin, this generally coincides with halving events, a shock to S2F value and scarcity. For Decred, this is more closely associated with oversold conditions since the smooth issuance curve is less variable than Bitcoin's. https://preview.redd.it/1httuil6r5r41.png?width=1520&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f0da25cc47b7969f6fbfed9f9376a13d0c43002
Insight 3 - 142-day Ticket Sum
An on-chain metric developed by u/permabullnino is the 142-day sum of all USD value bound in Decred tickets. DCR coins bound in tickets are indicative of strong demand for holding DCR long term. This metric (red line) has shown to act similar to an upper bound Bollinger Band as resistance during price discovery. By taking Fibonacci multiples (23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8%) of the 142-day ticket sum, additional trading ranges and boundaries have been identified. In particular, the 23.6% Fibonacci multiple (green line) has provided lower bound support throughout bull and bear cycles. In the 12/Mar market sell-off, price pierced below this level before rapidly bouncing back into the range. https://preview.redd.it/oigufn86r5r41.png?width=1388&format=png&auto=webp&s=5988ef2953cf40d3c39d8d441af9a1eb4355bd0b
Insight 4 - Puell Multiple
Decred ASIC miners have endured very challenging market conditions after ASIC hardware was first released in Jan 2018, at the peak of the alt-coin market cycle. Given miners are long term thinkers and investors, the Puell Multiple provides insight into whether income streams are profitable or not and the level of stress in the hash-power network. The Puell Multiple takes the ratio of daily PoW USD income to its 365day average. This provides a view of today's income relative to the past year. Similar to the metrics shown above, the Puell Multiple is approaching an extreme value commonly associated with the proverbial event where 'miners put the bottom in'. https://preview.redd.it/m1l3lct5r5r41.png?width=1303&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1143baa59722d8e8e9805d17bb6ebf06f8a63ee
The hailstorm, the low tide, and the sinking ship (a darknet parable)
Arrrr me mateys! Splice the main-brace! It's saturday night and I've had a tot of rum or two in the local taverns. This old sea dog be a land lubber now, I'm going to tell you a sea shanty from the pirate days of old. "There once sailed a big ship called HMS Empress. She was a sturdy liner with rich passengers and many fine shops on board. Then one day a violent hailstorm blew in, but the captain thought she had enough coal to weather the storm. But the storm blew on, and on, and the waves were high. Her passengers gradually took to the nearest life raft (a ramshackle Greek-flagged tug called the Apollo, formerly the Olympian) and the shops began to close and the coal grew low. The crew were too busy manning the buckets to serve the passengers." "Every low tide the Empress struggled to avoid the rocks. The hailstorm blew on. The captain knew the next low tide would sink her, so the great ship was scuttled" Don't ask me what it means, I don't know. I'm just a barnacle-hulled old sea-salt. Pay no mind to my crazed ramblings. Anyway, on a completely unrelated note I'd like to tell you about some things I've learned on reddit today and a phenomenon called THE "SILK ROAD TIDE" Lets take a look at a graph showing the number of confirmed bitcoin transactions on the blockchain per day, over the last year. https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/n-transactions?timespan=1year Spikey! But the spikes have a certain regularity to them, don't they? That's the tide going in and out, exactly once a week. But what causes it? It's caused by drug consumption on Friday night and the lack of postal service on Sunday. People think that bitcoin has gone mainstream, that it's all corporate investors now. But that transaction dip in March coinciding with Dream and Hansa marketplaces closing would suggest otherwise. Bitcoin is still very much drug-driven, causing those 52 weekly "double-sawtooth" spikes. "The Silkroad tide" is a phenomenon first seen in 2011. It's bitcoin flowing into markets on Monday and out again on Saturday Drug buyers purchase bitcoin from an exchange on Monday/Tuesday, order their drugs to arrive by Friday, and vendors launder it back to the same exchanges at the weekend ready for it's next exchange/DNM cycle. The bitcoin goes round and round. What does this mean for a darknet marketplace owner? Markets fill with bitcoin at the start of the week, but are virtually empty at the weekend. If, say, your marketplace is enduring a hailstorm of DDOS and you have to invest in a new load balancer and mirrors whilst your business is shrinking by the day, those vendor withdrawals at the weekend would bring you close to financial collapse. You try to keep going but those pesky vendors want their earnings. The less they trust you the more they want to get their bitcoin the hell away from your pretend wallets, on Saturday. You try to put them off until Monday by having "downtime" at the weekend, or (like today) you just ignore withdrawal requests altogether. If YOU were the captain of a marketplace that was getting DDOS'ed back to the stone age, you would give everybody their bitcoin back and close (like Agora and Dream did) so you can make the necessary design changes, wouldn't you? But Dream was only able to give everybody their bitcoin back because it wasn't technically bancrupt. Do you see what I'm getting at? There have been a few posts today complaining about vendors on Empire cancelling orders. That's because vendors sometimes want to give the appearance of still being open, but they only accept orders if they think a marketplace will survive long enough for them to get paid. They've seen it all before, again and again. We always blame law enforcement, but sometimes darknet marketplaces get put to the sword by their own vendors hint hint As Cypress Hill said, when the ship goes down you'd better be ready. To keep this Saturday night party atmosphere going, I'm only answering questions using oblique alagory and the medium of song. Lets have a tune to get us started! Closing-down sale wooooooooo! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKrxnvRp2as
Decred has three issuance paths for new coins, 60% are mined via PoW, 30% are staked by PoS and 10% allocated to the Decred Treasury. The chart below shows these issuance curves alongside the total DCR bound in tickets (Y-axis is proportion of circulating supply). It shows a very distinct relationship between DCR in tickets (blue) and PoW issuance (red). This suggests that a majority of coins distributed by miners have been purchased by market participants and make their way off exchanges and into staking. This trend has persisted both before and after ASIC miners launched on the network and is one indicator that DCR has a reasonable and fair vote decentralisation. Decred PoW (red), PoS (purple) and Treasury (yellow) issuance compared to DCR in ticket
Insight 2 - Privacy Update
The Decred privacy implementation has been live since late August 2019 and has been met with strong reception and usage. The system facilitates coin-join mixing using the CoinShuffle++ protocol, combined with the constant flow of DCR in the PoS ticket pool. The supply of mixed DCR has resumed its uptrend after rolling out further stability upgrades for the mixing server allowing wider participation. The anonymity set is now over 19% of all circulating Decred UTXOs (2,113,530 DCR). Note, this counts all mixed UTXOs (incl. tickets) which have not been spent since the mix. Total supply of DCR and current anonymity set
Insight 3 - Privacy Mixer Volume
Current volumes passing through Decred coin-joins are consistently between 50,000 and 100,000 DCR per day. At recent prices of $20, the protocol is mixing between $1 to $2 Million in value per day. On the 22-Feb, a new all time high was hit with 154,223 DCR in mixed volume, equivalent to over $3 Million. The fee for mixing is just a standard blockchain transaction fee for users, meaning each mix can completed for a few cents. Decred daily privacy mix volumes.
Insight 4 - The MVRV Ratio
The Decred MVRV Ratio shows the relationship between the Market Cap and the Realised Cap. Since DCR is always moving on-chain in tickets, the Realised Cap tends to act as support in Bullish markets and resistance in Bear markets. The DCR Market Cap has recently broken above the Realised Cap and the MVRV Ratio is retesting support on the trend-line which has contained it since mid 2017. The author expects the MVRV to act as an oscillator in response to Bull/Bear cycles. The Decred MVRV Ratio
Insight 5 - Throughput Thermometer
The Throughput Thermometer compares on-chain throughput between two assets and adjusts for outstanding supply in order to ensure an apples-to-apples comparison is made. This tool is best used to gauge macro bullishness or bearishness. When the thermometer is trending upwards, Decred on-chain flows are increasing versus Bitcoin flows pound-for-pound, which generally is paired with an uptrend DCBTC price (and vice-versa). The chart below shows that over the past 142 days, Decred has settled 20% more native units on-chain relative to Bitcoin when adjusted for supply - an all time high for the Decred network. Note this is influenced by both increased DCR flows and reduced BTC flows. The Throughput Thermometer, showing relative on-chain flow between BTC and DCR over 142 days
Insight 6 - v7 Consensus Vote
Decred has just completed the v7 consensus change vote which has passed with 99.94% approval. This consensus change upgrades the Decred block headers to enhance SPV wallet security, and optimise the process for PoW miners to include PoS votes. This will lead to fewer missed tickets due to network latency and provide both stakers and miners with more reliable block reward income. An interesting trend has developed around all consensus change votes so far whereby stake participation rate increases during the vote, and cools-off following it. After the v7 consensus vote completed, the stake participation rate dipped from 52% to 48% of circulating DCR, before bouncing back to XX%. EDIT ON THURS DCR stake participation rate around consensus votes(note, vertical lines are time when code was added for upgrade, not start of vote itself.)
Decred is insanely undervalued - A Confluence of Blockchain mechanics and Raw Scarcity
Decred has caught a burst of long overdue wind today. Below is my thesis on recent price action drivers and why I think Decred is insanely undervalued right now from an on-chain/blockchain mechanics perspective. This is an expansion on a tweet I put out here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1190349477120552961 Fundamentally, the project is one of the most undervalued assets in the market and I believe the largest information asymmetry next to Bitcoin. The smart money know this. They have been accumulating. Looking at the volume of DCR moving on-chain, we can see a significant amount of DCR moving in 2019 at the current support range. We know that DCR is always on the move due to tickets so when we see high volume nodes like this, it supports the notion of actual accumulation in addition to the usual transaction flow. We have seen similar growth in the median and mean transaction sizes throughout 2019. Larger wallets, larger DCR purchases. Update: Note how the 2019 volume node, if just looking at USD chart could be attributed to Dec-Apr period or the recent drawdown. However looking against the BTC chart confirms that the dominant accumulation has occurred during the recent period as the BTC price probes the lows. This is what I consider a high volume zone of support characterised by a large transfer of coins (miners selling, accumulating buyers). On-chain DCR volume profile plotted against price for BTC (black) and USD (blue) The recent price action drawdown in my opinion is a result of Miners going too hard to fast. ASICs were introduced in early 2018 and we see an explosion in PoW Difficulty. Mining is a leveraged play for DCR and in this case is unlike what occurred for BTC in that it was almost four years until ASICs were on the scene for Bitcoin. This means that Bitcoins naturally high early inflation had time to disperse before ASICs and serious hardware investment came online. ASICs are capital intensive, not hobbyist grade meaning coins mined must necessarily become coins sold. We can compare the insane growth in Decred mining since Jan 2018 against the market to see this on a relative scale. Mind you, this is a bullish signal. Miners are committing heavy capital to the Decred chain security. They have done their due diligence and have high conviction. That is not something to ignore. Full tweet on this here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1177650799050133504 Normalised difficulty growth (left) since Jan 2018 and (right) 2019 Year to Date As miners over-extend without support of price appreciation, they must sell more coins to pay bills. Eventually the weak miners have to capitulate and difficulty ribbon squeezes as mining equipment is switched off. We have seen this play out for Bitcoin where squeezing of the difficulty ribbon indicates a valuable period for accumulation. Willy Woo talks about this here https://woobull.com/introducing-the-difficulty-ribbon-the-best-times-to-buy-bitcoin/. What happens next is that the strong miners gain an increasing share of the hashrate. Their energy is thus rewarded with more DCR and so they can sell less of their income and Hodl more. This effectively begins to constrain supply rather than the oversaturation during capitulation. Over time this leads to a reversal in price action which further perpetuates the effect. Price of a scarce asset must appreciate with reduced circulating supply assuming demand relatively remains stable or increases. Decred total cumulative block subsidy paid (price x block reward DCR) and Difficulty ribbon This is actually very healthy forDecred. Coins are being distributed by miners en-mass right now, nullifying the risk of miners holding too high of a supply within the staking system leading to centralisation. I would argue that this distribution of coins is one of the most important and bullish signals long term. We know that miners stake as well and thus they are able to generate income on Hodled coins. I expect this to actually soften the degree of miner capitulation as they can turn off power whilst still generating income. For this reason, I do not suspect we will see photos of mountains of Decred ASICs being thrown out as we saw for Bitcoin in 2018. The machines are simply put on hold until price reverses to justify power consumption. This is a valuable business feasibility case for miners and a feature of long term sustainability in the chain security. Decred Resilience This is where the elegance of Decred resilience steps in. As miners slow, supply saturates, price drops. DCR Tickets become cheaper. Stakeholders step in and accumulation begins. The Ticket Price hit an ATH of 140+ DCR as Stakeholders begin accumulating and commit capital to secure the chain. The Hybrid PoW/PoS system works as a counter balance. When price is in a strong uptrend, stakeholders are provided an exit to capitalise on gains as miners have a strong case for expanding their operations (PoW dominant security). During price drawdowns, miners drop out and the cheap DCR stimulates Hodlers buying and locking capital which locks down available supply from attackers. An attack would thus drive price higher and the cycle repeats. As above, showing the total DCR locked in tickets hits an ATH as price drops due to miner capitulation PermabullNino made the observation that Decred functions as an elegant yet robust accounting system. His discussion on block subsidies are shown in the charts above and linked here https://medium.com/@permabullnino/decred-on-chain-a-look-at-block-subsidies-6f5180932c9b.Decred has a has past, present and future cash flows distributed to those who support it most. This puts Decred security in good hands- Miners 60%- Stakeholders 30%- Builders 10% Price is currently hovering around the PoW total subsidy paid (red line) and means miners are indeed feeling the squeeze as this is the cost basis of all DCR paid to date. Once you factor in overheads and capital costs, it makes sense we are seeing DCR supply distribution. The last time we saw price dip to this line was early in Decreds history and was followed by a rapid repricing. We now have three mechanisms at play which will act to constrain supply
Miners are distributing heavily but eventually will switch to hodling as the strong miners hash share grows.
Stakeholder are absorbing supply en mass and locking in tickets due to relatively cheap prices
Inflation rate is in a state of constant reduction
Scarcity My recent work looking at the Decred stock-to-flow model (which does exist and is convincing, contrary to what the Bitcoin maxi community may want to believe), suggests that DCR is in the oversold range. It has deviated by 1.5 standard deviations from the S2F model mean which is near identical to Bitcoin at 50% supply mined. Historically for Bitcoin and Decred, this has been an opportune period for accumulation. More on this discussion in my tweet here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1184159137564889089 Note that Decred, likely due to the smooth issuance and difference in market awareness, is less volatile than Bitcoin. The significant undervaluation of Bitcoin at 50% mined was due to the first 2012 halving where it was a very different and far smaller market. I would expect DCR to be repriced sooner rather than later as the smart money steps in having now developed Bitcoin hindsight. Standard deviations of DCR and BTC price from the respective stock-to-flow linear regression models As a final note, if we look at Decred and Bitcoin market valuations plotted against ratio of 21M coins issued, which normalises for coin age, we see a fascinating similarity in these coins trajectory. Bitcoin was worth $127M at 50% coins mined and Decred was worth $180M. Considering we are in a log scale market, this is practically the same. Decred has achieved this value both benefiting from market awareness and size, but also in the face of heavy (albeit generally ill-equipped) alt-coin competition, quite remarkable. Decred and Bitcoin Market and Realised Caps and S2F models plotted against ratio of 21M coins mined Given that Decred has such insanely strong fundamentals, has developed a convincing monetary premium in it's short life and traverses the same stock-to-flow path as Bitcoin, I believe there is immense value flying under the markets radar. The recent price action drawdown can reasonably be attributed to miners over-extending. However based on both prior Decred behaviour and drawing comparisons to Bitcoin history, there is a strong argument to be made that supply will soon be constrained on multiple fronts and the current value is both highly undervalued and being absorbed by the smart money. Feedback, counter-points and discussions welcome. Cheers, CM.
A week of shock, on-chain transaction volume soared, Binance Bitcoin inflows surged 164%
From the data of the past week (03.09-03.15), with the sudden and sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin on March 12, compared with the previous week (03.02-03.08), the data on the chain has risen sharply. The main transaction volume is concentrated on Thursday On Friday, as the price of Bitcoin fluctuated gradually from $ 5,000 to $ 5,500, the activity of data on the chain also dropped significantly. Transaction amount: 03.02-03.08: 5587116.39 BTC 03.09-03.15: 10626347.83 BTC Increase from the previous week: 90.19% The detailed data chart is as follows: Actual transaction amount: 03.02-03.08: 3835451.42 BTC 03.09-03.15: 6772827.74 BTC Increase from the previous week: 76.58% Number of transactions: 03.02-03.08: 2350652 03.09-03.15: 2121416 Decrease from the previous week: 9.75% The decline from this data also reflects the relatively large amount of transactions that drove the transaction amount during the slump in the currency price, which may be direct large transfers between addresses, or it may be that more transactions were collected under the active state of the exchange Large transfers. Number of active addresses: (The address that initiated the transaction is considered the active address) 03.02-03.08: 3686153 03.09-03.15: 3583417 Decrease from the previous week: 2.79% From this data's turn to decline, it can also be seen that when the currency price is volatile, active addresses such as exchanges are the focus of the market and the core of the on-chain transaction pooling. Large transfers: (Single transaction initiated amount greater than 100BTC is considered a large amount transfer) 03.02-03.08: 6501 03.09-03.15: 14827 Increase from the previous week: 128.07% This data validates the above judgment. The number of large transfers rose rapidly after the currency price dived, setting the largest single-day large-value transaction record since November 22 last year. Binance exchange BTC flow data Inflow: 03.02-03.08: 49947.69 03.09-03.15: 132045 Increase from the previous week: 164.37% Outflow: 03.02-03.08: 48823.84 03.09-03.15: 135022.51 Increase from the previous week: 176.55% The detailed data chart is as follows: Net inflow: 03.02-03.08: 1623.85 03.09-03.15: -2977.51 Decrease from the previous week: 283.36% Binance's data once again reflects the core position of the exchange address on the chain. With the sharp fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, more bitcoin moves in and out of the exchange, which also causes a large amount of bitcoin inflow and outflow rise.
• Fiat Currency is backed by Governments/Countries itself. What determines the value of a currency is the economic health, demand, growth, political stability to name a few, of the respective country. Before 1930, most fiat currencies were backed by gold and silver. • Since 1971, U.S. citizens have been able to utilize Federal Reserve Notes as the only form of money that for the first time had no currency with any gold or silver backing. This is where you get the saying that U.S. dollars are backed by the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. Government - quoted in google.com. • What backs crypto value is purely supply and demand. The demand creation of a crypto is its sole objective. To create demand, the crypto has to have a purpose. And most purpose commonly promoted is utility. The number of ways you can utilize the said crypto. The more utilization factors the more demand there is for it. • There are other ways to substantiate value of a crypto and that is to back the crypto with a 1 to 1 ratio in assets or in USD. Then the question is, how 3,000 crypto currencies in circulation be monetary eco sustainable? Can anyone imagine walking into McDonald and view a chart of 3,000 different pricing? Which also means the crypto is a payment gateway pegging against USD instead of bearing any true characteristic of a currency. • A country’s currency is in its own legit form of legal tender, the only currency acceptable under financial sovereigns of a country. People in the world must be made to understand that. Retailers in Thailand cannot put up products price tags in EUROS/USD, it is illegal. It has to be in Thai Baht. • It is hardly imaginable for everyone in the world to retail with a Crypto-Currencies at a rate of 7 transactions per second. When mining nodes are reduced due to non-performing mining ratio, mining blocks in the Blockchain will significantly be limited too, rendering delays in transactions while usage increases. • In time to come, as trends of crypto picks up, Thailand can issue BAHT COIN or UK the STERLING COIN, exactly what China wishes to do. Digital RMB, but would such crypto currencies be fully decentralized? We all have our answers. Absurd to even think of producing Thai Baht, Pound Sterling or Chinese Yuan at the cost of electricity. It is currencies in digital forms. KRATSCOIN is not meant for that purpose. In some opinion, apart from utilization, a crypto can be for safekeeping, an entity for keeping money while allowing easy liquidation, at a click of a mobile button, not to mention sending or transferring without the trouble of going to banks, which was the original purpose of Bitcoin to begin with. Therefore, KRATSCOIN would be better termed as Crypto Commodity, sharing similarities as Metal Commodities. An individual cannot use gold to make a purchase, neither can one eat gold. It can only be kept or invest in for appreciative value over time. Gold is being exampled for its scarcity which reasons for its higher value over its cousin, silver or bronze. Who or what determines the value of gold? Just like any other crypto, demand by humanity. As in all other commodities, it must also be placed in checks by governments. To put in checks, serial numbers are introduced to protect a country’s commodities outflows or illegal exports. Humanity made Bitcoin a reality. Acceptance by the majority members of the public made Bitcoin to what is it today with the trust they entrusted it with, or is the majority public hopping on the band wagon to make a few quick extra bucks? Whatever the reasons are, the characteristics of Crypto Currencies are only matched by the behavior of Commodities. SERIALIZED COINS - WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE PUBLIC: Every currency has its own remarkable name, design and colors. Dollars, Euros, Pound, Tugrik, Peso, Rupee, Rupiah, Dina, Ringgit, Baht and the list carries on. One thing every currency have in common - Serial Numbers. In any crime, investigators will firstly establish motives and mode of operation, both of which are very likely related to money. So following the money trial is a natural thing to do for investigators/authorities and it has become a common practice. Crimes require funding ie robbers need money to buy guns to carry out its robbing activities. Cutting off financing will reduce criminal activities. That’s the approach governments of the WORLD have adopted for crime fighting. Perhaps people do not realize this while most do not feel the pinch. Humanity tends to take life for granted until apocalypse happens. Take a minute to visualize the tallest tower in your homeland collapse into a pile of dust with thousands of casualties effecting everything else that comes to mind. Imagine a family member, just 1 is enough, is among those casualties. • Imagine if monetary system is not in place and drug dealers, among many, roam the earth freely distributing what can be death threatening substance to your kids. What if you are mugged of your inheritance [items left to you by your father] that is beyond retrieval? As for crypto enthusiast, what if your wallet gets hacked as even the mighty Pentagon gets hacked. All the above can go away if the crypto system leaves a trail for hound dogs to sniff out. Money Trail or Serial Codes Trail to be exact. • Citizens rely on governments and their countries to do what is best for them to lead their daily lives, flourish, advance, improve and strive but at the same time, citizens want to take away the single most important thing deemed crucial in the hierarchy of humanity from governments with additional boastful remarks such as “I transferred $400 million from one corner of the earth to another corner in a single transaction and no governments can do anything about it”. • In-short, to boast unregulated financial movement is to arrogantly promote crime without realizing it while challenging the world’s monetary authority. Oldest advice in the book teaches us never to pick a fight we can’t win. • Serial Coded Coins does not take away the financial movement freedom nor does it take away your privacy. It merely provides Authorities the necessary means needed for crime prevention and fighting. It only re-inforce security and safety. SERIALIZED COINS - WHAT IT MEANS FOR GOVERNMENTS: • Governments are relentlessly trying to find new ways to keep track of crypto transactions. Crypto Currency Exchanges, just like all other Financial Institutions and Banks, are required to practice the most stringent Know Your Customer (widely known as KYC) process. The KYC is designed to provide governing agencies and authorities with information pertaining to crypto ownerships. • But no governments can have information on Peer-to-Peer (also known as P2P) transactions unless the government in question launch a full scale Federal Investigation on certain suspected individuals seeking Wallet Developers to unveil the ownership of certain wallet addresses. Do not forget, National and Global Security trumps Privacy Act. Refusal to co-operate under the pretext of Global or National Security will only result in an out-right ban, which is exactly what happened to Blackberry. • Questions to Governments – What if Wallet Developers or Crypto Exchanges shuts down which can happen for various reasons be it foul-play, sinister or forcefully under threat? What if servers are damaged and ruined? An EMP strike or a simple magnet can make it happen. Information/identities of suspected customers of such addresses shall be lost forever and along with it the Money Trial. • The most probable way of evading Authorities with crypto assets are developing an e-wallet for own illicit purpose. Since the cost of developing an e-wallet is relatively low in considerable cost to hiding, what can governments do to flush out these ants from the vast networks of tunnels? • With Serialized Coded Crypto Assets, it doesn’t matter if servers of Exchanges or Wallets are destroyed. The Serial Codes of each token/coin enables governments of every participating country to track both origin and destination by identifying records of each token/coin in wallet address. It can disappear into a cold wallet but emerging some place later yet Authorities can still detail which particular token/coin has at one moment of time been into which wallet, on what day and date. • If the battle of financial crimes can be resolved with a simple Serialize Coded Crypto Asset, the eradication of corruptions, money laundering, unlawful proceeds and terrorism financing will be made possible. Criminals can no longer exploit the genius creation of Sathoshi – Blockchain and Crypto-Currencies. • Global Security, Anti-Terrorism Financing and Money Laundering could just be excuses granting government agencies the need to have access to financial information in the Monetary System. Nonetheless, it is in the interest of every nation that capital outflow is controlled. Capital Outflow is most frequent when the economy of a country is deteriorating. In the face of an economy meltdown, monetary flow is most needed and yet citizens tend to transfer monies further away illegally from their own country in an act of selfishness. This would not be tolerated by any country. Serial Coded Coin shall prove this attempt futile. • In most part of Asian Countries, many crypto-currency mining operations are carried out illegally. The legality sits on thin fine line where Authorities can pin only stealing of electricity as a major concern to the respective country. Since most Power Companies belongs to the Country in one way or another, it is financially damaging to Power Producers and Utility Suppliers. Serial Codes can determine if the KRATSCOIN is mined legally or illegally making it difficult for miners or mining farms to mine crypto while avoiding making electricity payments. Will this deterrent disrupt the chain of KRATSCOIN supply? That’s not how Blockchain Tech works. TAXATIONS - WHAT IT MEANS FOR PUBLIC AND GOVERNMENTS: • Taxation cannot be imposed on “Illegal & Unlawful Proceeds” instead confiscation is enforced in many countries. Origins or proceeds of Serialized Coded Crypto Assets can be easily identified by the Serial Codes in-conjunction with the Blockchain. This exercise can evidently proof the legitimacy of the aforesaid token/coin. By “Illegal & Unlawful Proceeds” also refers to crypto coins obtained via illegal mining operations. • Taxation on Crypto Assets are calculated on profits deriving from the sale/disposal of the crypto Assets. If we are small crypto believers, the amount of taxation rendered by Inland Revenue will be insignificant. Why risk Freedom of Life over Freedom of Small Monies. If we are big crypto believers, taxation on Serialized Coded Coins can be considered added security to your assets protection. • By adopting Serialized Crypto Assets, declaration is made easily possible via proof of token/coin origin via the Blockchain. If the Authorities can know where our crypto assets come from, the Authorities will know where it will disappear to. It is taxation cum insurance in one tiny sum. This added security with freedom feature will encourage self-declarations of crypto assets to Authorities and Agencies. PRIVACY & ANONIMITY: • Many may be skeptical of their wealth being tracked and monitored. But in this era of technological advance society, everything we touches has our signature. Banks, iPhones, Samsung Mobiles, Google, Facebook, Whatsapp, WeChat, LINE, Viber, Facebook, Properties, Utilities. Almost everything. It is to this fact that there is a need for Privacy Protection Act. • As explained before, Crypto Currency Exchange KYC procedures is designed to expose the identity of Crypto Assets ownership. The Blockchain is supposed to serve as a transparent information platform. The question of privacy over Serialized Coded Coins does not exist, it does not make Serialized Coded Coins ownership any less private. • Ownership of wallet addresses shall always remain anonymous while the only way Authorities can get to it is through Wallet Developers by virtue of Global/National Security Threats or by a Court Order as per the Privacy Protection Act. SAFETY & SECURITY (CODED CRYPTO VS FIAT + COMMODITIES): • No human mind can memorize the millions of serial numbers printed on fiat currencies. The records of Serialized Coded Coins will forever be in the Blockchain embedded within each transaction from wallet to wallet. • Serialized Commodities such as gold can be melted down. Diamonds recrafted. Fiat double printed. But not Serialized Coded Crypto Assets. • Should an accessory system be added into the KRATSCOIN Blockchain, allowing reports on criminal activity be made within the Blockchain, notifying all ledgers of certain stolen Serial Coded Coins, enabling WARNINGS and forbidding next transaction of that particular Serial Coded Coin, wouldn’t this function enhance protection. A theft deterrent function which can never be achieved with physical gold, diamonds or fiat. KRATSCOIN SUMMARY: • Most crypto currencies have not reach a level of security alert for governments. This could be the only reason why a possible ban has not been discussed. China and India has begun efforts to control or ban crypto currencies in their quest to combat capital outflow, writer’s personal opinion. The EU has stopped Libra from implementation. “A company cannot be allowed Authoring Power for issuance of currencies” quoted the governments. KRATSCOIN is fully decentralized with no ownership nor control by any country, company or individual. Once again, the beauty of Bitcoin decentralization concept prevails. • “There is no such thing as a world currency. However, since World War II, the dominant or reserve currency of the world has been the U.S. dollar” quoted in google.com. • Most countries have “Foreign Reserves” as backing to a country’s fiat currency. It is a mean of “back up” attempt should all factors above mentioned leading to the value of their currencies collapse. Then what will happen if the Country of the Foreign Reserves collapse? • Serial Coded KRATSCOIN belongs to no one, no country, no company and therefore theoretically shall not be effected by politics, war or global economy meltdown yet everyone, every country and every government is able to benefit from KRATSCOIN. "Quoted by" https://lintangnews.com/ada-kratscoin-ini-bedanya-dengan-bitcoin/https://0xzx.com/201910111244312902.htmlhttps://news.tokocrypto.com/tag/kratscoin-ktc/http://bbs.tianya.cn/post-lookout-836105-1.shtmlhttps://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/84844615
Mirror trading international | Why you need to own 0,02 Bitcoin
Mirror trading international Mirror trading international - Contrary to popular belief you can buy small amounts of Bitcoin which are called Bits or Satoshis. A satoshi is the smallest unit of a bitcoin, equivalent to 100 millionth of a bitcoin. Bitcoins can be split into smaller units to ease and facilitate smaller transactions. The satoshi was named after the founder, or founders, of bitcoin, known as Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitcoin itself is 10 years old, and that is almost half the lifespan of the average currency which lasts approximately 27 years, according to a recent article The rise and fall of fiat currencies. The article references a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, there is no historical precedence for a fiat currency that has succeeded in holding its value. Twenty percent failed through hyperinflation, 21% were destroyed by war, 12% destroyed by independence, 24% were monetarily reformed, and 23% are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes. Mirror trading international Mirror trading international - The average life expectancy for a fiat currency is 27 years, with the shortest life span being one month. Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency in existence. At a ripe old age of 317 years it must be considered a highly successful fiat currency. However, success is relative. The British pound was defined as 12 ounces of silver, so it’s worth less than 1/200 or 0.5% of its original value. In other words, the most successful long standing currency in existence has lost 99.5% of its value. Looking at the main title you are probably asking why you need to own 0,02 and how much is that worth? – Currently the price of Bitcoin is just shy of $8000, so the price would be about $160 or R 2500 (South African ZAR), which may or may not be a lot of money. Of course if you have the resources you may even want to get some more, or if you are like me ‘as much as you can’. I am not an investment advisor and this should not be taken as investment advice, but if you are thinking of going to an investment advisor who knows nothing about cryptocurrency or Bitcoin, well that is like asking a horse breeder to to tell you about horsepower in a car. So be wise in whatever you do. Mirror trading international - Let’s look at what your 0.02 BTC could be worth using the Stock-to-Flow chart on https://digitalik.net/btc/sf\_model/# a page inspired by Medium article Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity written by Twitter user PlanB. Mirror trading international - For my South African & Nigerian readers I have done a chart in ZAR and Naira which can be found at the bottom of this article. As previously mentioned I am not an investment advisor, but putting some of your hard earned money into Bitcoin may just be more than worthwhile in a couple of years time. Is it risky you may ask? Firstly without risk, there can be no reward. The biggest risk in my opinion is not to have considered the possibility today. Spending $164 in May 2025 will only get you 0,000123951 Bitcoin. The other factor you may have to deal with is when your children and grandchildren ask you about the time you could have bought $26000 worth of Bitcoin for $164. What will your excuse be then? Mirror trading international - There will only ever be 21 Million Bitcoin, and currently there are 18 Million, however due to carelessness many people have misplaced or lost their Bitcoin wallet passwords and keys. This has made Bitcoin even more scarce with an estimated 3-4 Million that have been lost through carelessness. So please be careful and keep your Bitcoin safe. Mirror trading international - This could be the biggest generational wealth creating opportunity in history and you have an opportunity that may never happen again. My advice would be to get some Bitcoin even if that is just 1% of your investment portfolio. In my opinion it is worth the risk. Mirror trading international Mirror trading international
VET Will Take the #2 Position From Ethereum, and this is not a stretch of imagination, the pieces are already in place.
I responded to a user yesterday with doubts about VET's valuation, and I thought it merited a post and a bit of an expansion on the point. VET will overtake Ethereum, and here is a very small example of why. Ethereum this year is averaging about 750k transactions a day. The vast majority of these transactions are for trading and ICOs, DAPP usage is very low. To give you a perspective on this, the top 100 Dapps running on ETH have less than 200k monthly active users, Snapchat alone has 200 million. Nothing but respect for Ethereum, but it has fundamental design problems that make adoption difficult if not impossible for a business. And this is the point, VeChain has analyzed, dissected, and solved these problems by doing what successful tech companies do, leading with the use case, not the tech. Now, why will VET overtake ETH, and why is this effectively a certainty in my book? Let's look at one small example. I could model this properly, but I am going to keep this very simple because I want everyone to truly see the sheer scale of what we are talking about with what is coming with VeChain, we are going to be very conservative and look at just one partner China Tobacco. China Tobacco had 172 Billion in sales last year. Let's say their average sale price was $4 per unit. This comes out to 43 billion units. Let's go cheap, let's say it cost 1 cent to track each product. 43 billion units times $.01 times 25% adoption rate, that comes out to $107MM. Let's keep it simple and ignore cyclic elements, cash flow discounts, etc. and say this is normalized on a daily basis. That is $294k a day in usage on about 120MM products a day x # of touchpoints. Possible Touchpoints: 1) Rolling Paper Origination 2) Filter Origination 3) Tobacco Origination 4) Day of Product Creation 5) Day of Product Shipment 6) Transportation Data (counting as 1 data point, likely many) 7) Delivery Confirmation 8) Box Confirmation, Carton Confirmation, Pack Confirmation at arrival. 9) Point of sale confirmation. That is ~1.1mm transactions per day, 9 x 120mm. At a conservative estimate of China Tobacco's product line. This means, China Tobacco alone could easily account for a million transactions a day, at these highly conservative estimations, compared to 750k total transactions a day on Ethereum . China Tobacco alone could overtake Ethereum's usage. When I tell people about VeChain, I don't do so because I want to hype or shill a coin. I tell people about VeChain, because I have modeled them (BI EngineeData Scientist) 20 different ways, and there is absolutely no way I see them failing. I see VET as a transformational technological force about to be unleashed on the world, and I truly want people to be able to take advantage of what I believe is about to unfold. When you hear FUD, consider asking OP to show you their math. VeChain has the most legitimate chance of taking blockchain mainstream in this entire space, in terms of usage, and I include bitcoin in this. VET is going to overtake ETH, it is not a matter of if, but a matter of when. We examined one use case, from one partner, at highly conservative levels. Ask yourself, do you really think this represents their potential? My 2 VET. edit: Typo of $170 to $107
Weekly Update: Mycro on ParJar, PAR on MetaMorphPro, new customer for Resolvr, 1UP on IDEX... – 19 Jul - 25 Jul'19
Heya everyone, looks like we are in for another round of rapid catch ups on the weekly updates. Haha. Here's another exciting week at Parachute + partners (19 Jul - 25 Jul'19): In honour of our latest partnership with Silent Notary, this week we had an SNTR Parena. Richi won the finale to take home a cool share from the 1.5M SNTR pot. The weekly Parena had a 100k PAR pot. McPrine took home the lion’s share by beating Ken in a closely fought finale. In 8 months since ParJar started, we are now at 12k users, 190k transactions and 200+ communities. Cap says: “…to put it into perspective - June 18th we were around 100k transactions and 9 k users. A month later we’ve added 3k new users (33% growth) and 80,000 new transactions”. Freaking amazing! And thank you for the shoutout aXpire! MYO (Mycro) was added to ParJar this week. And their community started experiencing the joys of tipping. Lolarious work by @k16v5q5! Last week MetaMorphPro did a Twitter vote to list new projects. Turns out Parachuters did PAR a solid. Woot woot! The first ever official TTR shirt is already live in the Parachute shop. Alexis announced the start of a shirt design contest to add to the TTR shirt inventory. Ian’s art quiz in TTR this week saw 25k PAR being given away to winners. Victor’s quiz had another 25k PAR pot for the winners. And Unique’s Math quiz in TTR was a 50k PAR extravaganza. All in all, 100k PAR won in quizzes in TTR this week. Sweet! Cryptonoob (Tom) set up a survey this week for “..for people who are interested in Crypto but don't know where to start..” for his work on the Parachute app UX. We all know how much Gian loves the reality show Big Brother. So we saw a new take on his Tuesday fun events. Mention your favourite reality show and what it’s all about to get some cool PAR. Yay! A PAR coaster makes its way from design to final product in @k16v5q5’s workshop Chris’ Golf tourney contest resulted in no winners since there were no correct guesses. So he decided to give out fun prizes instead: like Jason for coming last, Win for a “hilariously bad guess” of 100 strokes for the champions total score etc. Haha. However, there were a few top prize winners as well. LordHades, with a tournament score of 1968, took home 50k PAR as grand prize. Neat! Ali, Hang, Clinton and Tony came in close at 2nd to 5th positions. Congrats! And with that, Chris announced the start of another contest: Premier League Challenge for Parachuters (Entry code: x0zj2d) with an entry fee of 5000 PAR each. Prize pool yet to be announced. Jason is still in the lead this week in the Big Chili Race at 47 cm. Not much change either in the other plants. Slow week at Chili land. Ric getting in on that sweet Parachute merch Last week we shared that AXPR got listed on Binance Dex. The ERC20-BEP2 conversion bridge went live this week. Learn how to convert your ERC20 tokens to the BEP2 variant from the available how-to guides (article/video/gif). To mark the occasion, aXpire gave away a ton of BNB in an easter egg contest plus a 1% AXPR deposit bonus to folks who started using the bridge. Remember, we had mentioned that the reason for the weekly double burn of AXPR will be revealed this week? Well here it is. Resolvr onboarded a new client: HealthGates. More fees, more burn. Read more about it here. Woot! Victor hosted a trivia like every week on Friday at aXpire for 1000 AXPR. 10 questions. 100 AXPR each. Nice! Catch up on the week that was at aXpire from their latest video update. 2gether was selected as one of the top 100 most innovative projects by South Summit this week. Cryzen now built a Discord-Telegram chat bridge so that anything posted in either platform gets cross posted on the other. The latest WandX update covers the dev work that’s been going on for the past few weeks – support for Tezos wallet, staking live for Tezos, Livepeer and Loom etc. 2gether on South Summit’s honour roll BOMB community member rouse wrote a quick script on how to identify and avoid common crypto scams. Have a read. As BOMB says, “Stay vigilant and always verify”. Last week's giveaway for the top lessons shared by entrepreneurs had so many good entries that the final list was expanded to 19 winners. Awesome stuff! Zach’s latest article on the difference between BOMB and BOMBX explores both the basic and the more complex distinctions. Switcheo’s introductory piece on hyperdeflationary tokens also talks at length about the BOMB project. Zach also announced the start of the Telegram Takeover Challenge this week – get new communities to experience ParJar and BOMB and earn some cool BOMB tokens in return. Win win! In preparation for the integration of the SMS feature in the Birdchain app, the team released an article on some key statistics. Here’s a video from Birdchain CEO Joao Martins discussing the feature. The latest Bounty0x distribution report can be found here. Also, check out a shoutout to the platform in this NodesOfValue article on bounty hunting opportunities. Start of beta testing for SMS feature in Birdchain The ETHOS Universal Wallet now supports Bitcoin Cash and Typerium. Following ETHOS’ listing on Voyager, it will also become the native token on Voyager. Switch continued its PR campaign with cover pieces on Yahoo, CCN and DDFX this week. Altcoin Buzz has a section on its site named “Community Speaks” where members of a crypto community share updates on a project they support. This week, Fantom was featured in this section. V-ID is the latest project using Fantom’s ERC20-BEP2 bridge for listing on Binance Dex. Big props to FTM for opening it up to other projects. FTM got listed on Probit and Airswap. FTM can also now be used as collateral for borrowing on the Constant platform. The Fantom Foundation joined the Australian Digital Commerce Association which works on regulatory advocacy in blockchain. This was also a perfect setting for the Fantom Innovation Labs team to attend the APAC Blockchain Conference in Sydney. Here’s a report. In this week’s techno-literature, have a read of the various Fantom mainnets and the TxFlow protocol by clicking here and here respectively. Another proposed token utility of ETHOS Uptrennd’s 1UP token was listed on IDEX this week. To put it simply, the growth at Uptrennd Twitter has been explosive. Check out these numbers. Awesome stats! This free speech vs fair pay chart shared by Jeff explains why the community backs the platform. About 96% of 1UP issued this week has been used to level up on Uptrennd. Want a recap of the latest at Uptrennd? Click here. Crypto influencer Didi Taihuttu and his family (The Bitcoin Family) joined the platform this week. Congrats once again to Horizon State for making it to the finals of The Wellington Gold Awards. Some great networking opportunities and exposure right there. If you have been lagging behind on HST news, the latest community update covers the past month. We had also mentioned last week that Horizon State is conducting a vote for The Opportunities Party in New Zealand. Here’s a media report on it. Catch up on the latest at District0xverse from their Weekly and Dev updates. The Meme Factory bot was introduced this week to track new memes and marketplace trends on Meme Factory. The HYDRO article contest started last week was extended to the 27th. 50k HYDRO in prizes to be won. Noice! Hydrogen got nominated as a Finalist to the 2019 FinXTech Awards. HYDRO was also listed on the HubrisOne wallet this week. And finally, here’s a closer look at the Hydro Labs team. The folks who make the magic happen. Sup guys! The Parachute Big Chili Race Update – Jason at 1st, Sebastian at 3rd And with that, we close for this week at Parachute and partners. See you again with another weekly update soon.
Your Guide to Monero, and Why It Has Great Potential
/////Your Guide to Monero, and Why It Has Great Potential/////
Marketing. It's a dirty word for most members of the Monero community. It is also one of the most divisive words in the Monero community. Yet, the lack of marketing is one of the most frustrating things for many newcomers. This is what makes this an unusual post from a member of the Monero community. This post is an unabashed and unsolicited analyzation of why I believe Monero to have great potential. Below I have attempted to outline different reasons why Monero has great potential, beginning with upcoming developments and use cases, to broader economic motives, speculation, and key issues for it to overcome. I encourage you to discuss and criticise my musings, commenting below if you feel necessary to do so.
Bulletproofs - A Reduction in Transaction Sizes and Fees Since the introduction of Ring Confidential Transactions (Ring CT), transaction amounts have been hidden in Monero, albeit at the cost of increased transaction fees and sizes. In order to mitigate this issue, Bulletproofs will soon be added to reduce both fees and transaction size by 80% to 90%. This is great news for those transacting smaller USD amounts as people commonly complained Monero's fees were too high! Not any longer though! More information can be found here. Bulletproofs are already working on the Monero testnet, and developers were aiming to introduce them in March 2018, however it could be delayed in order to ensure everything is tried and tested. Multisig Multisig has recently been merged! Mulitsig, also called multisignature, is the requirement for a transaction to have two or more signatures before it can be executed. Multisig transactions and addresses are indistinguishable from normal transactions and addresses in Monero, and provide more security than single-signature transactions. It is believed this will lead to additional marketplaces and exchanges to supporting Monero. Kovri Kovri is an implementation of the Invisible Internet Project (I2P) network. Kovri uses both garlic encryption and garlic routing to create a private, protected overlay-network across the internet. This overlay-network provides users with the ability to effectively hide their geographical location and internet IP address. The good news is Kovri is under heavy development and will be available soon. Unlike other coins' false privacy claims, Kovri is a game changer as it will further elevate Monero as the king of privacy. Mobile Wallets There is already a working Android Wallet called Monerujo available in the Google Play Store. X Wallet is an IOS mobile wallet. One of the X Wallet developers recently announced they are very, very close to being listed in the Apple App Store, however are having some issues with getting it approved. The official Monero IOS and Android wallets, along with the MyMonero IOS and Android wallets, are also almost ready to be released, and can be expected very soon. Hardware Wallets Hardware wallets are currently being developed and nearing completion. Because Monero is based on the CryptoNote protocol, it means it requires unique development in order to allow hardware wallet integration. The Ledger Nano S will be adding Monero support by the end of Q1 2018. There is a recent update here too. Even better, for the first time ever in cryptocurrency history, the Monero community banded together to fund the development of an exclusive Monero Hardware Wallet, and will be available in Q2 2018, costing only about $20! In addition, the CEO of Trezor has offered a 10BTC bounty to whoever can provide the software to allow Monero integration. Someone can be seen to already be working on that here. TAILS Operating System Integration Monero is in the progress of being packaged in order for it to be integrated into TAILS and ready to use upon install. TAILS is the operating system popularised by Edward Snowden and is commonly used by those requiring privacy such as journalists wanting to protect themselves and sources, human-right defenders organizing in repressive contexts, citizens facing national emergencies, domestic violence survivors escaping from their abusers, and consequently, darknet market users. In the meantime, for those users who wish to use TAILS with Monero, u/Electric_sheep01 has provided Sheep's Noob guide to Monero GUI in Tails 3.2, which is a step-by-step guide with screenshots explaining how to setup Monero in TAILS, and is very easy to follow. Mandatory Hardforks Unlike other coins, Monero receives a protocol upgrade every 6 months in March and September. Think of it as a Consensus Protocol Update. Monero's hard forks ensure quality development takes place, while preventing political or ideological issues from hindering progress. When a hardfork occurs, you simply download and use the new daemon version, and your existing wallet files and copy of the blockchain remain compatible. This reddit post provides more information. Dynamic fees Many cryptocurrencies have an arbitrary block size limit. Although Monero has a limit, it is adaptive based on the past 100 blocks. Similarly, fees change based on transaction volume. As more transactions are processed on the Monero network, the block size limit slowly increases and the fees slowly decrease. The opposite effect also holds true. This means that the more transactions that take place, the cheaper the fees! Tail Emission and Inflation There will be around 18.4 million Monero mined at the end of May 2022. However, tail emission will kick in after that which is 0.6 XMR, so it has no fixed limit. Gundamlancer explains that Monero's "main emission curve will issue about 18.4 million coins to be mined in approximately 8 years. (more precisely 18.132 Million coins by ca. end of May 2022) After that, a constant "tail emission" of 0.6 XMR per 2-minutes block (modified from initially equivalent 0.3 XMR per 1-minute block) will create a sub-1% perpetual inflatio starting with 0.87% yearly inflation around May 2022) to prevent the lack of incentives for miners once a currency is not mineable anymore. Monero Research Lab Monero has a group of anonymous/pseudo-anonymous university academics actively researching, developing, and publishing academic papers in order to improve Monero. See here and here. The Monero Research Lab are acquainted with other members of cryptocurrency academic community to ensure when new research or technology is uncovered, it can be reviewed and decided upon whether it would be beneficial to Monero. This ensures Monero will always remain a leading cryptocurrency. A recent end of 2017 update from a MRL researcher can be found here.
///Monero's Technology - Rising Above The Rest///
Monero Has Already Proven Itself To Be Private, Secure, Untraceable, and Trustless Monero is the only private, untraceable, trustless, secure and fungible cryptocurrency. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are TRACEABLE through the use of blockchain analytics, and has lead to the prosecution of numerous individuals, such as the alleged Alphabay administrator Alexandre Cazes. In the Forfeiture Complaint which detailed the asset seizure of Alexandre Cazes, the anonymity capabilities of Monero were self-demonstrated by the following statement of the officials after the AlphaBay shutdown: "In total, from CAZES' wallets and computer agents took control of approximately $8,800,000 in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero and Zcash, broken down as follows: 1,605.0503851 Bitcoin, 8,309.271639 Ethereum, 3,691.98 Zcash, and an unknown amount of Monero". Privacy CANNOT BE OPTIONAL and must be at a PROTOCOL LEVEL. With Monero, privacy is mandatory, so that everyone gets the benefits of privacy without any transactions standing out as suspicious. This is the reason Darknet Market places are moving to Monero, and will never use Verge, Zcash, Dash, Pivx, Sumo, Spectre, Hush or any other coins that lack good privacy. Peter Todd (who was involved in the Zcash trusted setup ceremony) recently reiterated his concerns of optional privacy after Jeffrey Quesnelle published his recent paper stating 31.5% of Zcash transactions may be traceable, and that only ~1% of the transactions are pure privacy transactions (i.e., z -> z transactions). When the attempted private transactions stand out like a sore thumb there is no privacy, hence why privacy cannot be optional. In addition, in order for a cryptocurrency to truly be private, it must not be controlled by a centralised body, such as a company or organisation, because it opens it up to government control and restrictions. This is no joke, but Zcash is supported by DARPA and the Israeli government!. Monero provides a stark contrast compared to other supposed privacy coins, in that Monero does not have a rich list! With all other coins, you can view wallet balances on the blockexplorers. You can view Monero's non-existent rich list here to see for yourself. I will reiterate here that Monero is TRUSTLESS. You don't need to rely on anyone else to protect your privacy, or worry about others colluding to learn more about you. No one can censor your transaction or decide to intervene. Monero is immutable, unlike Zcash, in which the lead developer Zooko publicly tweeted the possibility of providing a backdoor for authorities to trace transactions. To Zcash's demise, Zooko famously tweeted:
" And by the way, I think we can successfully make Zcash too traceable for criminals like WannaCry, but still completely private & fungible. …"
Ethereum's track record of immutability is also poor. Ethereum was supposed to be an immutable blockchain ledger, however after the DAO hack this proved to not be the case. A 2016 article on Saintly Law summarised the problematic nature of Ethereum's leadership and blockchain intervention:
" Many ethereum and blockchain advocates believe that the intervention was the wrong move to make in this situation. Smart contracts are meant to be self-executing, immutable and free from disturbance by organisations and intermediaries. Yet the building block of all smart contracts, the code, is inherently imperfect. This means that the technology is vulnerable to the same malicious hackers that are targeting businesses and governments. It is also clear that the large scale intervention after the DAO hack could not and would not likely be taken in smaller transactions, as they greatly undermine the viability of the cryptocurrency and the technology."
Monero provides Fungibility and Privacy in a Cashless World As outlined on GetMonero.org, fungibility is the property of a currency whereby two units can be substituted in place of one another. Fungibility means that two units of a currency can be mutually substituted and the substituted currency is equal to another unit of the same size. For example, two $10 bills can be exchanged and they are functionally identical to any other $10 bill in circulation (although $10 bills have unique ID numbers and are therefore not completely fungible). Gold is probably a closer example of true fungibility, where any 1 oz. of gold of the same grade is worth the same as another 1 oz. of gold. Monero is fungible due to the nature of the currency which provides no way to link transactions together nor trace the history of any particular XMR. 1 XMR is functionally identical to any other 1 XMR. Fungibility is an advantage Monero has over Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency, due to the privacy inherent in the Monero blockchain and the permanently traceable nature of the Bitcoin blockchain. With Bitcoin, any BTC can be tracked by anyone back to its creation coinbase transaction. Therefore, if a coin has been used for an illegal purpose in the past, this history will be contained in the blockchain in perpetuity. A great example of Bitcoin's lack of fungibility was reposted by u/ViolentlyPeaceful:
"Imagine you sell cupcakes and receive Bitcoin as payment. It turns out that someone who owned that Bitcoin before you was involved in criminal activity. Now you are worried that you have become a suspect in a criminal case, because the movement of funds to you is a matter of public record. You are also worried that certain Bitcoins that you thought you owned will be considered ‘tainted’ and that others will refuse to accept them as payment."
This lack of fungibility means that certain businesses will be obligated to avoid accepting BTC that have been previously used for purposes which are illegal, or simply run afoul of their Terms of Service. Currently some large Bitcoin companies are blocking, suspending, or closing accounts that have received Bitcoin used in online gambling or other purposes deemed unsavory by said companies. Monero has been built specifically to address the problem of traceability and non-fungibility inherent in other cryptocurrencies. By having completely private transactions Monero is truly fungible and there can be no blacklisting of certain XMR, while at the same time providing all the benefits of a secure, decentralized, permanent blockchain. The world is moving cashless. Fact. The ramifications of this are enormous as we move into a cashless world in which transactions will be tracked and there is a potential for data to be used by third parties for adverse purposes. While most new cryptocurrency investors speculate upon vaporware ICO tokens in the hope of generating wealth, Monero provides salvation for those in which financial privacy is paramount. Too often people equate Monero's features with criminal endeavors. Privacy is not a crime, and is necessary for good money. Transparency in Monero is possible OFF-CHAIN, which offers greater transparency and flexibility. For example, a Monero user may share their Private View Key with their accountant for tax purposes. Monero aims to be adopted by more than just those with nefarious use cases. For example, if you lived in an oppressive religious regime and wanted to buy a certain item, using Monero would allow you to exchange value privately and across borders if needed. Another example is that if everybody can see how much cryptocurrency you have in your wallet, then a certain service might decide to charge you more, and bad actors could even use knowledge of your wallet balance to target you for extortion purposes. For example, a Russian cryptocurrency blogger was recently beaten and robbed of $425k. This is why FUNGIBILITY IS ESSENTIAL. To summarise this in a nutshell:
"A lack of fungibility means that when sending or receiving funds, if the other person personally knows you during a transaction, or can get any sort of information on you, or if you provide a residential address for shipping etc. – you could quite potentially have them use this against you for personal gain"
Major Investors And Crypto Figureheads Are Interested Ari Paul is the co-founder and CIO of BlockTower Capital. He was previously a portfolio manager for the University of Chicago's $8 billion endowment, and a derivatives market maker and proprietary trader for Susquehanna International Group. Paul was interviewed on CNBC on the 26th of December and when asked what was his favourite coin was, he stated "One that has real fundamental value besides from Bitcoin is Monero" and said it has "very strong engineering". In addition, when he was asked if that was the one used by criminals, he replied "Everything is used by criminals including the US dollar and the Euro". Paul later supported these claims on Twitter, recommending only Bitcoin and Monero as long-term investments. There are reports that "Roger Ver, earlier known as 'Bitcoin Jesus' for his evangelical support of the Bitcoin during its early years, said his investment in Monero is 'substantial' and his biggest in any virtual currency since Bitcoin. Charlie Lee, the creator of Litecoin, has publicly stated his appreciation of Monero. In a September 2017 tweet directed to Edward Snowden explaining why Monero is superior to Zcash, Charlie Lee tweeted:
All private transactions, More tested privacy tech, No tax on miners to pay investors, No high inflation... better investment.
John McAfee, arguably cryptocurrency's most controversial character at the moment, has publicly supported Monero numerous times over the last twelve months(before he started shilling ICOs), and has even claimed it will overtake Bitcoin. Playboy instagram celebrity Dan Bilzerian is a Monero investor, with 15% of his portfolio made up of Monero. Finally, while he may not be considered a major investor or figurehead, Erik Finman, a young early Bitcoin investor and multimillionaire, recently appeared in a CNBC Crypto video interview, explaining why he isn't entirely sold on Bitcoin anymore, and expresses his interest in Monero, stating:
"Monero is a really good one. Monero is an incredible currency, it's completely private."
There is a common belief that most of the money in cryptocurrency is still chasing the quick pump and dumps, however as the market matures, more money will flow into legitimate projects such as Monero. Monero's organic growth in price is evidence smart money is aware of Monero and gradually filtering in. The Bitcoin Flaw A relatively unknown blogger named CryptoIzzy posted three poignant pieces regarding Monero and its place in the world. The Bitcoin Flaw: Monero Rising provides an intellectual comparison of Monero to other cryptocurrencies, and Valuing Cryptocurrencies: An Approach outlines methods of valuing different coins. CryptoIzzy's most recent blog published only yesterday titled Monero Valuation - Update and Refocus is a highly recommended read. It touches on why Monero is much more than just a coin for the Darknet Markets, and provides a calculated future price of Monero. CryptoIzzy also published The Power of Money: A Case for Bitcoin, which is an exploration of our monetary system, and the impact decentralised cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Monero will have on the world. In the epilogue the author also provides a positive and detailed future valuation based on empirical evidence. CryptoIzzy predicts Monero to easily progress well into the four figure range. Monero Has a Relatively Small Marketcap Recently we have witnessed many newcomers to cryptocurrency neglecting to take into account coins' marketcap and circulating supply, blindly throwing money at coins under $5 with inflated marketcaps and large circulating supplies, and then believing it's possible for them to reach $100 because someone posted about it on Facebook or Reddit. Compared to other cryptocurrencies, Monero still has a low marketcap, which means there is great potential for the price to multiply. At the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap, Monero's marketcap is only a little over $5 billion, with a circulating supply of 15.6 million Monero, at a price of $322 per coin. For this reason, I would argue that this is evidence Monero is grossly undervalued. Just a few billion dollars of new money invested in Monero can cause significant price increases. Monero's marketcap only needs to increase to ~$16 billion and the price will triple to over $1000. If Monero's marketcap simply reached ~$35 billion (just over half of Ripple's $55 billion marketcap), Monero's price will increase 600% to over $2000 per coin. Another way of looking at this is Monero's marketcap only requires ~$30 billion of new investor money to see the price per Monero reach $2000, while for Ethereum to reach $2000, Ethereum's marketcap requires a whopping ~$100 billion of new investor money. Technical Analysis There are numerous Monero technical analysts, however none more eerily on point than the crowd-pleasing Ero23. Ero23's charts and analysis can be found on Trading View. Ero23 gained notoriety for his long-term Bitcoin bull chart published in February, which is still in play today. Head over to his Trading View page to see his chart: Monero's dwindling supply. $10k in 2019 scenario, in which Ero23 predicts Monero to reach $10,000 in 2019. There is also this chart which appears to be freakishly accurate and is tracking along perfectly today. Coinbase Rumours Over the past 12 months there have been ongoing rumours that Monero will be one of the next cryptocurrencies to be added to Coinbase. In January 2017, Monero Core team member Riccardo 'Fluffypony' Spagni presented a talk at Coinbase HQ. In addition, in November 2017 GDAX announced the GDAX Digit Asset Framework outlining specific parameters cryptocurrencies must meet in order to be added to the exchange. There is speculation that when Monero has numerous mobile and hardware wallets available, and multisig is working, then it will be added. This would enable public accessibility to Monero to increase dramatically as Coinbase had in excess of 13 million users as of December, and is only going to grow as demand for cryptocurrencies increases. Many users argue that due to KYC/AML regulations, Coinbase will never be able to add Monero, however the Kraken exchange already operates in the US and has XMfiat pairs, so this is unlikely to be the reason Coinbase is yet to implement XMfiat trading. Monero Is Not an ICO Scam It is likely most of the ICOs which newcomers invest in, hoping to get rich quick, won't even be in the Top 100 cryptocurrencies next year. A large portion are most likely to be pumps and dumps, and we have already seen numerous instances of ICO exit scams. Once an ICO raises millions of dollars, the developers or CEO of the company have little incentive to bother rolling out their product or service when they can just cash out and leave. The majority of people who create a company to provide a service or product, do so in order to generate wealth. Unless these developers and CEOs are committed and believed in their product or service, it's likely that the funds raised during the ICO will far exceed any revenue generated from real world use cases. Monero is a Working Currency, Today Monero is a working currency, here today. The majority of so called cryptocurrencies that exist today are not true currencies, and do not aim to be. They are a token of exchange. They are like a share in a start-up company hoping to use blockchain technology to succeed in business. A crypto-assest is a more accurate name for coins such as Ethereum, Neo, Cardano, Vechain, etc. Monero isn't just a vaporware ICO token that promises to provide a blockchain service in the future. It is not a platform for apps. It is not a pump and dump coin. Monero is the only coin with all the necessary properties to be called true money. Monero is private internet money. Some even describe Monero as an online Swiss Bank Account or Bitcoin 2.0, and it is here to continue on from Bitcoin's legacy. Monero is alleviating the public from the grips of banks, and protests the monetary system forced upon us. Monero only achieved this because it is the heart and soul, and blood, sweat, and tears of the contributors to this project. Monero supporters are passionate, and Monero has gotten to where it is today thanks to its contributors and users.
///Key Issues for Monero to Overcome///
Scalability While Bulletproofs are soon to be implemented in order to improve Monero's transaction sizes and fees, scalability is an issue for Monero that is continuously being assessed by Monero's researchers and developers to find the most appropriate solution. Ricardo 'Fluffypony' Spagni recently appeared on CNBC's Crypto Trader, and when asked whether Monero is scalable as it stands today, Spagni stated that presently, Monero's on-chain scaling is horrible and transactions are larger than Bitcoin's (because of Monero's privacy features), so side-chain scaling may be more efficient. Spagni elaborated that the Monero team is, and will always be, looking for solutions to an array of different on-chain and off-chain scaling options, such as developing a Mimblewimble side-chain, exploring the possibility of Lightning Network so atomic swaps can be performed, and Tumblebit. In a post on the Monero subreddit from roughly a month ago, monero moderator u/dEBRUYNE_1 supports Spagni's statements. dEBRUYNE_1 clarifies the issue of scalability:
"In Bitcoin, the main chain is constrained and fees are ludicrous. This results in users being pushed to second layer stuff (e.g. sidechains, lightning network). Users do not have optionality in Bitcoin. In Monero, the goal is to make the main-chain accessible to everyone by keeping fees reasonable. We want users to have optionality, i.e., let them choose whether they'd like to use the main chain or second layer stuff. We don't want to take that optionality away from them."
"Monero has all the mechanisms it needs to find the balance between transaction load, and offsetting the costs of miner infrastructure/profits, while making sure the network is useful for users. But like the interviewer said, the question is directed at "right now", and Fluffys right to a certain extent, Monero's transactions are huge, and compromises in blockchain security will help facilitate less burdensome transactional activity in the future. But to compare Monero to Bitcoin's transaction sizes is somewhat silly as Bitcoin is nowhere near as useful as monero, and utility will facilitate infrastructure building that may eventually utterly dwarf Bitcoin. And to equate scaling based on a node being run on a desktop being the only option for what classifies as "scalable" is also an incredibly narrow interpretation of the network being able to scale, or not. Given the extremely narrow definition of scaling people love to (incorrectly) use, I consider that a pretty crap question to put to Fluffy in the first place, but... ¯_(ツ)_/¯"
u/xmrusher also contributed to the discussion, comparing Bitcoin to Monero using this analogous description:
"While John is much heavier than Henry, he's still able to run faster, because, unlike Henry, he didn't chop off his own legs just so the local wheelchair manufacturer can make money. While Morono has much larger transactions then Bitcoin, it still scales better, because, unlike Bitcoin, it hasn't limited itself to a cripplingly tiny blocksize just to allow Blockstream to make money."
Setting up a wallet can still be time consuming It's time consuming and can be somewhat difficult for new cryptocurrency users to set up their own wallet using the GUI wallet or the Command Line Wallet. In order to strengthen and further decentralize the Monero network, users are encouraged to run a full node for their wallet, however this can be an issue because it can take up to 24-48 hours for some users depending on their hard-drive and internet speeds. To mitigate this issue, users can run a remote node, meaning they can remotely connect their wallet to another node in order to perform transactions, and in the meantime continue to sync the daemon so in the future they can then use their own node. For users that do run into wallet setup issues, or any other problems for that matter, there is an extremely helpful troubleshooting thread on the Monero subreddit which can be found here. And not only that, unlike some other cryptocurrency subreddits, if you ask a question, there is always a friendly community member who will happily assist you. Monero.how is a fantastic resource too! Despite still being difficult to use, the user-base and price may increase dramatically once it is easier to use. In addition, others believe that when hardware wallets are available more users will shift to Monero.
I actually still feel a little shameful for promoting Monero here, but feel a sense of duty to do so. Monero is transitioning into an unstoppable altruistic beast. This year offers the implementation of many great developments, accompanied by the likelihood of a dramatic increase in price. I request you discuss this post, point out any errors I have made, or any information I may have neglected to include. Also, if you believe in the Monero project, I encourage you to join your local Facebook or Reddit cryptocurrency group and spread the word of Monero. You could even link this post there to bring awareness to new cryptocurrency users and investors. I will leave you with an old on-going joke within the Monero community - Don't buy Monero - unless you have a use case for it of course :-) Just think to yourself though - Do I have a use case for Monero in our unpredictable Huxleyan society? Hint: The answer is ? Edit: Added in the Tail Emission section, and noted Dan Bilzerian as a Monero investor. Also added information regarding the XMR.TO payment service. Added info about hardfork
Rebalancing Crypto Portfolio: What is BAT, Brave, PAY & TenX?
If you are reading this article, the chances are you already know what are ETH and BTC. You might even own some of them. But do you know that, ETH and BTC belong to two independent ecosystems? The two ecosystems are completely different with no connectivity. Just like two countries located in different parts of the world. To go from one to another, you need to take an airplane. Sounds easy right? You just need to build an airplane to cross these two chains. Wrong. Comparing to centralized exchange (CEX), there are so much more technical barriers for decentralized exchange (DEX) to overcome. How’s that? In general, when you trade on a CEX, your tokens are not actually exchanged to the counterparty. It’s simply an alteration of numbers by the CEX. You still get the tokens you want but the problem is, the whole process is done behind the scenes along with the risk of being manipulated and the risk of losing your tokens. However, when trading on a DEX with cross-chain technology,
you own and control your wallet,
full transparency and on-chain,
higher security as tokens are actually exchanged.
The biggest challenge for DEX to resolve cross-chain issue is particularly “how to actually exchange one token from ecosystem A to ecosystem B”. At DINNGO, we resolve all the technical difficulties and design an intuitive user experience. Most people do not understand cross-chain technology or do not appreciate the value of it. Therefore, a good design can improve visual feedback and further simplify the experience. After dismissing the geeky interface, an average user can easily learn the true value and the ethos of the blockchain. Below we share our path of designing the new cross-chain solution — Portus.
Starting with research
1. Become the pioneer
Simplicity has always been the fundamental principle of DINNGO’s design. We want to make it easy for people to get into blockchain. So easy that even grandmom know how to use. We want to provide an experience that is effortless to onboard, visually pleasant and easy to use. When we started developing cross-chain function, we first studied every bitcoin wallet in the market and conducted product analysis to come up with a cross-chain wallet solution. Then we moved on to competitive product analysis to review all other products on the market that are also trying to find cross-chain solutions in blockchain industry. This is the time when we realized that we are the pioneer in the market. For example, one of the cross-chain solutions is Atomic Swap, which provides a one way or two ways fixed price swapping service. With Atomic Swap, the price is inalterable, which means you can not set up the price you want, and it does not provide visualize charts or order book. (Competitor Product Research) Very few DEXs that support cross-chain features provide charts and even so, they only show you the charts of a fixed price swapping history without order book features. Most of them are crypto-pegged tokens, namely they are backed by the native coin in reserve and issue the pegged tokens on their chain. It is not actually decentralized. Believe it or not, until this day, no one has ever built a solution to achieve interoperability in the present market. What you can expect from Portus cross-chain trading:
After a thorough analysis, we decided to choose private key approach for bitcoin wallet integration as our Minimum Viable Product (MVP). Here is why: Majority of bitcoin wallets are designed to sign UTxO (Unspent Transaction Output) from P2PKH (Pay to Public Key Hash), P2WPKH (Pay to Witness Public Key Hash), P2SH (Pay to Script Hash) or P2WSH (Pay 2 Witness Script Hash). Considering the implementation of atomic swap will complicate the process of trading bitcoin, we decided to design a simple interface for users to manage their bitcoin wallets as our MVP. With the private key approach, we can increase the flexibility and capability of processing different scripts. In a nutshell, users are able to maintain ownership and security of their funds while using an unprecedentedly new technology.
Mapping out different user scenarios
1. Simplify users main purpose
Users only explore the matters that they care. How do we know what they are trying to get? Or maybe they are just looking? The point is, we need to let users know what they can do with the product. So how do we achieve that? We focus on conversion rate and user behaviors. We build mental models for different types of users to understand their thought process. Through research → assumption → interview → prototype → analysis → design, we consolidate all the information to have a clear picture of user experience. We design the processes and conversation to guide users. During the development, we always review our interface to see if there is any unintended implication. We ask ourselves:
How do we guide users altering their inputs to meet their needs.
How do we let users know that they have already registered an account with us?
How do we let users know that they are logged in?
How do we let users know that their wallet is not connected?
How do we let users know the type of wallet they are currently using?
2. Categorize user journey map
We built user journey map from users perspective, from start to finish. By mapping out user behaviors and expectations at each stage, we are able to have a bird’s eye view of users as well as the close-up perspective. With that information, we can design a better user experience thus enhancing journey completion rate. Below is an example of user journey maps in different stages:
User Journey Map of first time visit users: Onboarding → Sign up → Connect Wallet → Trade
User Journey Map of users trading on Ethereum network: Log in → Connect Ethereum Wallet → Trade
User Journey Map of users trading through cross-chain solution: Log in → Connect Ethereum Wallet → Connect Bitcoin Wallet → cross-chain trading
After finalizing the experience prioritization, we decided to onboard users to connect ethereum wallets first and then bitcoin wallet later since DINNGO Exchange is built on top of Ethereum Network and around 94% of cryptocurrencies are ERC-20 token. Besides, the bitcoin wallet integration has a high dependency on the onboarding interface designed to connect Ethereum wallets. Since our Ethereum wallet integration is designed with an iterative approach, it is flexible enough to make further modification. According to our user observation and quantitative data, it reveals that our current UI layout has delivered an efficient onboarding process for users. Therefore, we made just a little modification to maintain the original usability and to soften the learning curve. (Goal completion rate and frequency)
2. Usability programme
After considering numerous user flow and scenarios, we arrange necessary and precise visual hints everywhere guiding the users to the next step. For example, after users connecting to our Ethereum wallet, they will see a Bitcoin icon next to Ethereum icon as a reminder of connecting Bitcoin wallet. See some details of our design below:
All wallet integration interface has only one single radio button. Just need one click. This way we decrease the number of clicks and make user journey much easier.
Loading animation inside buttons. Animation can reduce users’ perception of time, keeping users engaged before the process is fully loaded. We want users to feel like things are responsive and the action is processing while they wait.
Error messages when entering incorrect password/private key/number. There are two types of error messages — systematic errors and validation errors. An effective error message is best to be placed near the field, especially to the right or beneath the field.
We are very pleased to share how we design Portus. Upon achieving market adoption, we will add more features. If you have any suggestions for a better user experience, please do not hesitate to share with us. 【 About Us 】
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