Parlay Betting Strategy - Finding Profitable Parlay

Parlay Sports Betting Strategy - Parlay Payouts, Odds

submitted by Carnatic12 to u/Carnatic12 [link] [comments]

On the edge of cliff, this could be the end.

I am tired of losing. I am tired of feeling like a sack of shit. This is my story. I moved to Canada from India back in 2015, I was ready to make it big in life and thought life was going to be amazing after moving to Toronto. Enrolled in a post graduate program at a college in Toronto, life was fine as a student. I had never gambled in my life but I was curious about it as I always saw odds being displayed while watching my favorite sports(MMA, Soccer, etc) on TV. In August 2015, I opened an account on a Canadian sportsbook (Sportsinteraction), and I was a low limit player. I would bet on Soccer and MMA. I would bet like 20 bucks on crazy parlays, but it was just once a week so I never felt bad about it. Started dating my wife in 2016 and kind of forgot about gambling for a while as love is something you don't come across all the time. Started gambling again in 2017 and was still a low limit player. In 2018, I realized that I was getting tired of the rat race and I wanted to make big money so I thought maybe gambling would be the way to do it as I was good at predicting outcomes for the sports I was interested in. Problem is , I was always betting on parlays, as greed always beat the shit out of my practicality in my head. I would always go for the higher odds and I would end up Losing. My bets increased from 20$/week to 300$/week. I was still okay because I had a steady job and I had about 40-50k in savings. Then I made the worst decision of my life, I moved from Toronto to a small city in Atlantic Canada (Saint John,NB). New garbage city, no friends, a new high stress job (transportation planning), I wanted to make fast money and buy my wife a house(been her dream since she moved to Canada as well). 2019, I made 60k from my job, I didn't see a single penny from this income end up staying in my bank account for too long as I would gamble 500-1000$ a week on stupid parlays and never win. When I would bet on 1-2 games with heavy favorites, I would still lose as the underdogs would pull off massive upsets and at those moments I would think maybe god/the universe is out to get me. I still had 40-50k left over in savings from the previous years when 2020 came about. I thought to myself that maybe this is the year that i get it all back. Then the coronavirus hit and all sports stopped, i didn't know what to bet on anymore. That's when I discovered blackjack, I don't trust RNG so I thought I would play on the live tables and make some cash. The first two weeks were bad. I lost around 15k in those two weeks and I thought I should stop. But the pain of losing 30-40k in the past 3 years and the idea that I could somehow recover those losses convinced me to give it another shot. I developed a strategy and started playing again. My strategy worked, I made 1500$-2000$ per day and I was up to 20k, I was thinking to myself "I can make 60k per month from this shit". I was going to withdraw 15k the next day, but somehow thought to myself maybe I should play another hand before I withdraw this cash, I lost a couple hundred bucks and wanted to get it back, kept on losing for the next two hours and then lost all of the 20k I had make in the past week. I was so pissed, in those moments you feel like this is a cruel joke being played on you and someone is watching from somewhere and laughing at you. April, May and now June. Every day of the past three months I have been depositing 300-1000k into my account and gambling on blackjack trying to win my money back. Some days, I make 2-3k and end up losing it all a day or two later. I hate myself and feel like shit. My wife keeps reminding that we have to buy a house in Toronto next year as she is sick of this small town and wants to move back to the big city and doesn't want to pay rent anymore. She has no clue that I only have 100$ left in my checking account. I do have some savings in my retirement account (10k) that I cannot touch unless I go to the bank and I don't plan on doing that. But I have effectively destroyed my life. I could have been having 100-130k in savings right now but I am sitting here alone in my kitchen, with nothing left in my bank account. I have been having vivid suicidal thoughts for the past two months and I am very close to writing a suicide note for my family and friends. I don't know how I could break the news to my wife about my gambling addiction as she would probably not be able to handle such devastating news. I have a 2yr old son with her and the only reason I haven't killed myself yet is because of the guilt I feel when I think of abandoning them. I have become a shell of who I used to be, I used to be funny, smart and I could always make people feel comfortable in my presence. Now i don't interact with anyone and am always glued to my phone, gambling my money and possibly my life away. I don't know what to do anymore. This could be the end of my story.
submitted by Gambladdict to problemgambling [link] [comments]

Psycho Betting and Stats 301-Degenalytics Question

!!!!DISCLAIMER:!!!!
Before you even start watching this for entertainment and see if you get offended by this un-P.C. content. Don't be a pussy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igsb3ejgbL8
If you can't handle it, leave this thread. If you can, then you may proceed to the next level.
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📰📜Story📜📰:
I've been scatter-brained, ire-filled, soul-searching and lost after a 7-day Degen Marathon that brought a shit load of misfortunes. I used to hate social media, but I've learned how to wield the soc. med. sword like a fucking Degen Jedi. I'm going to promote an honest cause where I seek to be victorious in the end. Just you watch you fucking doubters, haters, blockers, scammers. How much grit and intellect would the average fucking person have to endure what I've gone through in the last fucking 48 hours and still come out alive with a sense of greater purpose?
Had about $400 to $500 in righteously earned bonus dollars earned through impossible grinding degen mission that came pretty close to accomplishing (91%).
I would have had some imaginary >$600 BR by now, but instead the roll-over deadline caused the entire deposit to be forfeited and I manage to salvage some $100.
Due to a bonus rollover scheme, 80U of my balance was stuck in bonuses and if I fail to accomplish the roll-over by the deadline, it all gets forfeited.
With a $500-$600 balance, I could have somewhere at $900-1000 by now after a 20-2 W-L record on European football on Wednesday.
How did I get that record yesterday, by sampling a bunch of solid pre-game picks and live betting using my own fucking brain. I consult with the finest in capping. With $10-$20 bet sizes, That would have put me up maybe $15x16 = +$240 at minimum. $1000 was the imaginary bank roll. As of today, betting with $1 units, after Monday-Wednesday's successful run, while Tuesday was a -$50 blip, I converted $100 to about close to $200 (40U).
🤪🤑Psycho Betting🤑🤪:
I learned the art of psycho betting. Taking some well-advised 10U and 30U psycho bets that put my bankroll up a significant amounts, but a big loss does the opposite. Yesterday I manage to hit 4 grand 30U slams in a row, however many on juiced lines, so each $30 bet one returns about $15-20. Thus my bankroll grew nearly +100 units and sits close to $200 from the initial $100 I manage to salvage after that bonus robbery.
If you want to fucking learn the art of Psycho-Betting to the extremest and be successful at it, fucking put in $100 in Bovada (remember to use money that you can afford to lose) and get that fucking bonus for the purpose of looting the bookies in a successful vengeance scheme. This guy is a fucking Artillery: https://twitter.com/GoTimeCappers.
Fucking hit more than 4x30U grand slams yesterday and some 10-20U cherries on top. I tailed his free picks and other through consultation [Haha fucking reddit/sportsbook will probably ban me for promoting another tout, :)].Of course with my $1.5U size on a crippled bank roll, I cannot grow it to as much as I wanted to using GoTime's techniques. I would have been at another +$400 if I had $6 units. It's a high risk and high reward system, but if you are confident with your picks you go big on it. If you lose it, then you grind back with smaller 10U and 20U bets to try to get back to part to be able to do another 30U bet. The goal is to be like 2-1, 3-0 on 30U grand slams a day. There is some level of sustainability and back up plans to execute in case the 30U bet did not work out. It is very improbable for you to lose 10 in a row on well researched picks that the experts in the community have common agreement on. A lot of the times, the lines shift to reward you less for the pick since big money is already on the pick.
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!!!!!DISCLAIMER: DO NOT READ BEYOND HERE IF YOU HATE MATH OR HAVE AN IQ OF < 89!!!!!
Use the chart on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_classification
Here is a Nice Calculation to do:
📚📑💻Stats 301 Question in Degenalytics💻📑📚**:**
Lastly I asked anyone in the past few days to do a Stats 301 question with Degenalytics Context: To fucking determine the probability that an avg Joe with a $100+100 Bonus Bank-roll or $500 + 250B bank roll can actually pull off the $3000/$7500 grind in some number of N months betting with supposedly 2 full months of real sports (N-2) getting Obliterated by COVID-19. I want you to give me an analytical calculation or a simulation of your work and give me all the possible scenarios.
Then give the final verdict of if that number converges to 0.000% or 100.00% that the average Joe would succeed his false-hope mission for a successful rollover.
In other words think of it like this: If the average joe bets his entire bank roll 12 or more times (roll-over is not x10 because of bookie juice), what is the probability that he will still end up in the green? Also assign a tilt probability factor that the Average Joe would go on some emotional tilt spree to end up bust again? And make it even harder by eliminating 2-3 full months of real sports (N-2.5) and having to bet on Bovada's limited shitty ass lines and shitty live odds.
If you fucking want to eliminate the -2.5 months, then allow the average joe the freedom to bet on N months of e-sports [hahah] and see where that goes.
I had a bad experience betting on e-sports for 2 months and only end up -15-20U. I'm not saying that I lost because I suck at e-sports betting or I tailed the wrong people. The Bovada lines are super shitty and limited. Most of the time, on live esports, all you see are dashed out lines as if they fucking know what the rigged result is and prevent people from doing hedge bets or try to bet opposite spreads when they are winning to guarantee an insurance 1-1 with minimal damage incurred to their bank-roll. The live betting experience on e-sports on the Bovada platform is so bad that you are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Fucking hell Bodog/Bovada even offered me a $250 deposit on 100% bonus after the Rudy Gobert day in Mid March. They advertised the joys and wonders of getting rich betting off esports.
I was so tempted to deposit, however I kind of over-slept and missed out on the dead-line so they closed the bonus offer. Pretty good relief that I did not fuck-up my real credit card and bank account by falling for that scam again. It was an accidental Grace of God moment to fucking avoid that E-sports deposit marketing scam.
BONUS Questions:
A: Calculate the number of months needed and number of successful bets required for the conservative degen 1u bettor to grind out the roll-over playing
$2.00 tug of war with the bookie.
B: Calculate the odds that a professional capper who knows how to adjust unit sizes (1u-5u), do parlays once a while, will succeed the roll-over in some
N-2.5 months or add some e-sports to have fun to keep the N factor.
C.1: Calculate the conditional probabilities for the bettor succeeding in the mission if on the first few days of betting:
i) He loses bet 1 for about $20.
ii) Wins bet 1 for about $20 to earn $17.5.
iii) Goes on a 3 game losing streak
iv) 5 game losing streak
v) Positivity case: The guy got lucky and nearly doubled his bank roll on a decent run from day. Up +100U or $200. [I'm sure that out of bad discipline the average Joe would still go -200U in the long run with a pretty high probability.]
C.2: Determine the mathematical scheme on how the Bookies can use your first few losses to eventually put you in a 60+:40- (Greater than 60% locked in bonus, less than 40% of your deposited money). Bonus:Locked funds ratio.
The Jinx-King answer: It converges to zero [hahaha], but I really am interested in know what other scenarios math and stats people have come up. And your mathematical approaches and formulae used to generate possible scenarios and probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that for the average Joe,the answer is 0.00% success rate. Bodog/Bovada knows this exactly and refuses to put a hiatus on the roll-over deadline. Instead they keep it going so that people can try to wager on e-sports and lose their entire bank roll. They are only interested it getting 100% of your locked funds so that they can buy expensive cruises, yachts, beach mansions, resort packages, etc in Aruba or some other tropical place. Where you got millions of desperate Americans, Canadians in struggling economies with lost jobs and zero positive cash-flow. About 10% or so or perhaps even more deposit money into off-shore gambling websites hoping they can roll-over their bank-roll some ridiculous number of times and make a few bucks to put food on the table.
In fact, it makes matters worst being jobless, having zero cash flow and having locked funds in scamming bookies. If you are not good at casino or sports-betting games, you would have:
A: Lose your entire deposit for failing to grind it out properly.
B: Not grind it out on time on whatever dead-line the roll-over was.
C: Even if you did successfully grind that shit out using conservative 1u betting and play $2 tug of war with the bookie, you will end up just wasting your time grinding it out for hours and hours on end. It would have been better for you to fucking find a job at some farm helping out with harvesting crops or work in meat plants so that food does not go to waste. I bet you I can make more money than your $2 tug of war in one a day picking off cans and bottles off the streets in some exercise walking/running/biking + collection routine then selling it to the recycling center for $0.05-0.25 a unit. Trust me at my university, I spot maybe about 50-200 empty/partially driven cans and bottles left on desks, lecture halls, the floor, libraries, work areas, etc. Supposed that I harvested that shit, I would be making $5-$20 a day collecting it all and going to the recycling center once every week.
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⚖Conclusions⚖:
The fucking company knows this COVID-19 closure shit and want to use it to their advantage to continue to rob millions of their customers. Last week, I tried to call customer service, chat help, email, etc. and management has spoken to plead my case to delay the roll-over dead-line in a pro-rated time frame so that customers with locked balances can resume betting with their full balance when Game 1 of any Major League Sport actually returns. They give me the same bull-shit over and over saying they decline my request. For what reason?
  1. The terms and conditions written in fine print for accepting the bonus conversion challenge. "Rules are Rules."
  2. They were aware my deadline of June 22 at 19:23 ET was approaching soon. They knew I was on a mission to salvage my bank roll before they yank out the 60-75U trapped in bonus balances (i.e. Ghost money). By the end of it, I realize I made a foolish mistake. Most of my wins were just from bonus money and I was rewarded $0.00 on righteous wins on expired bonuses.
Therefore Bonus money only earns bonus money which put my entire bank-roll in a 80:20 ratio where the bookies control 80U in ghost money. By the end of the roll-over deadline, they get to yank out 80U of my balance at the deadline and left me with about $100 (20U) bank roll to regrind.
  1. They knew I was winning consistently making solid picks.
During my 110 hour marathon over the brutal grind of losing more than 70 hours of work, leisure and recreation; 35 hours of sleep; to a fucking impossible grind of trying to roll over some 60% of $7500 on sports I have little knowledge of capping (i.e. E-sports, Table Tennis, European football) after a few days of studying the game, I was picking up my stride to grind it to 91%. They fucking knew that if I had another day to grind, they would be coughing up +$600-800 of withdrawable balance to my account.
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Bio:😎📚🎓👨‍🎓
I am a Fucking PHD Candidate (2-6 months from graduating and not having to pay another round of BS tuition) who does a shitload of mathematics, statistics, simulations, mathematical physics, wrote scientific papers. I've won T.A. Awards, Government/Provincial/Institutional level scholarships, Conference presentations, with even Undergrad honors back in the day. DM me if you need a fucking CV to prove my fucking credentials.
Why am I able to write a lot of shit? Because my fucking brain operates on some max level Intel Xeon chip on overclock mode and I cannot do much to shut it down other than going to sleep. They only way is to write articles that I think might benefit the community.
I have a crazy interest in sports and Degen'ing. I love to fucking put action on sports games, be proud about making the correct calls on the outcome of games before it happens, and then boast to my circle of competitive friends about who's the fucking Boss. As tabboo as society think us degens are, I think this absolute BS. There is a pure enjoyment in watching sports and having action on it. It is nice to get paid beer money to cover a round for your buddies, or earn that rent money over a successful night of betting on shit you actually enjoy watching. Fuck I rather make $300 for one evening of enjoying sports rather than working a 9-5 dull job to try to afford rent/mortgage. If I can fucking pay off all my monthly expenses in 3 fucking successful nights of 3 hr sessions of sports matches, that would be ideal. I would take the lather over a 9-5 rat-race grind.
Overall I am "PRO" in the debate for local single sports betting bookies to be established in Canada. Get these fucking scamming off-shore books like bodog/Bovada who contribute only contribute "Bagel" to the Canadian Economy, but instead make it worst by scamming the masses of hard working or desperate people to leak out some sum of billions of dollars of national GDP. Probably the same applies to all American States, that people should not have to cough up their hard earned $$$$ to off-shore scamming bookies. I shall write an article about this later to justify my arguments later.
Ultimately I my goal is to obliterate or negate the influence of all the cons, scamming bookies, and false touts out there who are just interested in stealing people's $$$. To write out full studies on exposing their schemes in an objective lens.
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Calling me out: (Think I cannot track these pussy downvotes? I know you cowards 😂😜😎)
If you think I'm full of BS, then send me a personal DM to have a 1v1 argument the same way that Stephen A debates sports with Max Kellerman. You can downvote me or flame me with empty hate talk all you want on public threads. But don't be a fucky pussy by avoiding a debate with me. Trust me, I'm going to win and be the last one to state a real point that you will have no comeback for [haha]. Lastly, if you are open to discuss or debate with me about some issues, do some resarch/exploration, betting strategies, etc., I would love your collaboration in some projects I got going on.
Ultimately, I should help every honest worker strive towards Degen success or if not, just to purely enjoy putting action on sports games. If you are too full of yourself, then you are on your own, I bid thee adieu, and wish you all the best. However you will be absolutely declined to all services and counsel I work to provide to friends for free.
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Social Media📺🎬
Some extra Resource to how I got to this point in my mission.
Here it is for starters:
June 23, 2020: The Impossible Pursuit Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Tuesday)
June 24, 2020: Doubling Bank roll and rewarded Bagel: Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Wednesday)
June 24, 2020: How can you win 5 in a row and lose it all simultaneously? Reddit/sportsbook/What is your most impressive win?
Full Twiiter: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5
All my media: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/media
Discord: ????? To be solved.
Challenges: Got a few right in progress now and a couple of drafts I am working on.
The Jinxking Crusade (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275516258822131714?s=20
Turns out many people cannot withdraw anything out of Bovada/bodog due to some website glitches. Will try to recover a bankroll to attempt a withdrawal, however I am likely to have the same issues too. They will make some lame excuse to not give me a cheque. Definitely no point of pursuing anything in bovada/bodog if they refuse to give you withdrawables. The goal is to get their website off outta here. As well as get them out of advertisements. They definitely pulled off some "Get the fucking money and run scheme" and you will likely not see your money again. GG
The Jinxking Challenge (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275661929940467713?s=20
Want to expose a bad tout who over prices the service and has a mediocre record? Tail and fade to call their their BS or mediocre non profiting record out. Also good for finding legitimate winners too. This will be a mission to expose shitty touts on Twitter the way Penn & Teller exposes BS in the market.
submitted by jinxking0p5 to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Understanding Your Internet Sports Betting Options

Internet Sports Betting
The Internet has grown tremendously over the past decade. From placing sports bets to buying a car, the Internet has made our lives extremely comfortable. The Internet has been a great tool for sports bettors. The wealth of information that's readily available has helped sports bettors make more informed decisions. In the old days, you were limited to whatever you heard on the street.
Understanding your Internet sports betting options
The Internet offers you a choice of hundreds of established online casinos and sports betting portals that offer superb features and great bonuses. Since they have a lower overhead than a traditional brick and mortar gambling operation, online gambling destinations can be very liberal when it comes to a signup bonus and ongoing promotions. Online sports betting destinations are online 24 hours a day and just a click away.
The options available through Internet sports betting sites are numerous and varied. Equipped with the right information, you can enjoy a plethora of betting options. Much like the stock market, knowing when to bet a moving line can be the key to success. Most online sports books are simply followers of other lines. Paying attention to line moves is vital to winning long-term. Thanks to the Internet, it's now possible to watch line moves from the comfort of your favorite chair.
The Internet today, provides a number of quality sports betting online services. Not only do sports betting portals offer terrific betting odds for a number of games like horse racing, baseball, football, basketball, auto racing, golf, hockey, and tennis, some of them also give you free cash. The good sports books will give you a signup bonus and bonuses for re-depositing.
Some frequently used sports betting terms:
Arbitrage: Betting the same event at separate sports books in order to lock in a profit by taking advantage of different betting lines.
Bankroll: Total capital available for betting sports.
Bookmaker (or bookie): A person who accepts bets.
Chalk: A favorite (usually, a heavy favorite).
Circled game: A game in which the sports book has reduced its betting limits, usually because of weather or the uncertain status of injured players.
Futures: A type of wager involving the outcome of a season or how a particular team or player will perform over the course of a season.
Hook: A half-point in the betting spread.
Line (sports betting lines): The point spread or odds on a game or event.
Lock: A bet that cannot lose; a term that is often misused and abused by disreputable touts.
Match-up proposition: A betting option that pits two players against one another in a contest or event, often used in golf and auto racing wagering.
Nickel: $500.
Parlay: A bet in which two or more events must happen in order to win; if any one of them does not happen, the wager loses.
Point spread: The number of points added to or subtracted from a team's actual score for betting purposes.
Sports book: The part of the casino that accepts bets on athletic contests.
Vigorish (or vig): The commission charged by a bookmaker.
Quick Sports Betting Tips & Strategies
1.Make each bet a small percentage of your overall bankroll. For example, if you had a $1,000 bankroll and wanted to make each bet 1% of that, your average bet would be $10. As you win, you bet amount goes up.
2.Don't chase losers. Keep your bets solid and follow your defined sports betting parameters. Just because you lose three bets in a row does not mean you will win any time soon. If you don't pick winners well, this could go on for some time. Keep to your guns.
3.Straight bets are better than parlays. Sure, parlay bets offer the chance to win a lot of money for a small bet, but straight bets will be your consistent winner over time. Everyone plays parlays, but don't make them the focus of your sports betting activity.
4.In horse racing, don't bet a horse to just show. If you think the horse is good enough to be a front-runner, bet the horse to win, place and show. If the horse is not good enough for this type of bet, in your opinion, the horse is not worth laying any money on to begin with.
There are four solid sports betting tips & strategies to make you a much better sports bettor. Your next move is to head over to your favorite sports book and put these sports betting tips & strategies into practice.
submitted by PresentType to illegalbahissitelerin [link] [comments]

Best strategy for sportsbetting?

Hey guys, i am kind of new in betting world and i would like to hear your betting strategys How much matches you usually play on one ticket? What are the best sports po play?... Tnx
submitted by EricCartman17 to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Drop Some Knowledge.

Figure I’d start a thread for some newbies to sports betting and/or people who are looking for some quick advice on sports gambling . I hope to get some people to contribute to this, as I would like to learn about some of the strategies/rules others have for themselves in this cutthroat hobby and/or profession.
Here are a few rules I have for myself:
  1. Never place bets in sports I don’t keep up with. (I don’t watch cricket so I stay away from betting anything in that sport)
  2. Never have a single bet if the line is -145 or greater. (I usually keep my bet lines at -120 odds or better because most of my bets are made to defeat the juice. Sometimes might create a parlay where on of the legs have -150 odds, but it’s rare. It doesn’t pay in the long run.)
  3. I create goals/challenges for myself. (i.e. If I have a $700.00 bankroll, I challenge myself to withdrawal $50.00 once I get to $850.00. It’s satisfying to reach a goal.)
submitted by Iconic215 to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

Week 15 Matchup Strategy Guide - Part 3 (DFAroto)

Part 3 of 3

Part 1 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-15-matchup-strategy-guide-part-1

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-15-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)

Jaguars ATS: 5-8-0 Raiders ATS: 6-7-0
Projected Team Totals: Jaguars 19.5 Raiders 26

Jaguars

Opp (OAK) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (OAK) Run DVOA: #27
Opp (OAK) Weighted DEF: #31
Injuries to Watch DEF (OAK): LB Marquel Lee (Q) LB Kyle Wilber (Q) CB Daryl Worley (Q) S Erik Harris (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX): WR DJ Chark (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.J. Chark (20%) Leonard Fournette (19%) Dede Westbrook (17%) Chris Conley (14%) Seth DeValve (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Leonard Fournette (77%, 18, 6) Ryquell Armstead (23%, 2, 2)

QB/WTE Breakdown

The Jags got blasted at home against the Chargers last week, and Gardner Minshew (2QB stream) did little to instill confidence that he is an upgrade over Nick Foles. While last week was a struggle, Minshew gets an extremely vulnerable Raiders secondary this time around. Oakland has the 31st ranked pass defense by DVOA, and has given up the 2nd most FPPG to QBs on the season. While it would be unwise to trust the rookie signal caller in a 1QB league, he makes for a possible streamer in 2QB or superflex leagues, and should be considered a mid-range QB2 with some upside in Sunday’s matchup. The loss of one of his top weapons does downgrade his outlook slightly, however..
DJ Chark has been ruled out for Week 15 with an ankle injury, leaving the Jags without their most explosive offensive playmaker. That should provide Dede Westbrook (upgrade) with an opportunity to see a high volume of targets against this leaky Raiders secondary. Oakland has allowed the 13th most FPPG to WRs, but their 31st ranked pass DVOA portrays a team that is quite vulnerable through the air. Chris Conley (upgrade) should also see a bump in usage, but he has been extremely boom or bust this season, and is reliant on big plays. Consider Westbrook a borderline WR2 under the circumstances, while Conley can be viewed as risk-reward WR3/4, just know his floor is extremely low. Keelan Cole will step into 3-WR sets with Chark on the sidelines, but he isn’t a realistic fantasy option at this point. None of the Jags TEs have been able to stand out after dealing with so many injuries, but Nick O’Leary did snag a TD last week. O’Leary is a hail mary TE2, although he does have a favorable matchup against a defense ceding the 4th most FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
The running game didn’t have any more success than the passing game against the Chargers, as Leonard Fournette (auto-start) was held to 63 total scoreless yards. The Raiders are less vulnerable to the run than the pass, but have given up the 9th most FPPG to RBs, so Fournette remains a volume based RB1. He’s especially valuable in PPR leagues, as he is consistently among the RB target leaders each week. Ryquell Armstead (stash) is the clear handcuff to Fournette, so roster him if you want to have insurance through the playoffs.

Raiders

Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (JAX) Run DVOA: #31
Opp (JAX) Weighted DEF: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (OAK): WR Hunter Renfrow (OUT) OT Trent Brown (Q) RB Josh Jacobs (Q, expected to play) WR Marcell Ateman (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Tyrell Williams vs. A.J. Bouye (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Darren Waller (19%) Hunter Renfrow (18%) Tyrell Williams (14%) Jalen Richard (11%) Zay Jones (10%) DeAndre Washington (8%) Josh Jacobs (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: DeAndre Washington (63%, 20, 7) Jalen Richard (38%, 9, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
A nightmare second half of the season continued for the Raiders last week in a blowout loss to the Titans, but Derek Carr (2QB only) was able to finish with a serviceable final fantasy line. Carr has gone over 21 points just once this season, so his ceiling is not something to get excited about. The Jags have given up the 11th most FPPG to QBs, so Carr has a reasonable floor, but can’t be viewed as anything more than a mid-range QB2. Leave him on the wire in most leagues.
A battle with plantar fasciitis might help to explain Tyrell Williams’ (drop) extreme dropoff over the second half of the season, but it appears the wideout will continue playing through the pain this week against the Jags. He hasn’t been a worthwhile starting option in quite some time, and the Jags surrender the 13th fewest FPPG to WRs, so consider him a TD or bust WR4, and keep him on your benches outside extremely deep leagues. Darren Waller (volume upgrade) is the real WR1 on this team, and his high weekly target floor makes him an attractive TE option at a position that is so heavily TD-dependent. The Jags have given up the 11th fewest FPPG to TEs, but Waller is too involved to be anything less than a top-6 TE1. Get him fired up this week to ensure you get a stable floor from that spot on your roster. No other Raiders pass catcher has emerged as fantasy relevant, so Waller is likely the only player that should be near a starting lineup this week.
RB Breakdown
Stud rookie RB Josh Jacobs (upgrade if healthy) was unable to play through his shoulder injury last week, leading to a workhorse level role for DeAndre Washington (stash). Jacobs currently plans to play on Sunday, so owners should put Washington on benches, and continue to leave Jalen Richard on the waiver wire. The Jags are an exploitable matchup on the ground - 4th most FPPG to RBs - so if Jacobs is active he needs to be in all lineups as a solid RB2. Washington should remain rostered as a solid handcuff.
Score Prediction: Raiders 21, Jaguars 20

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Browns ATS: 5-7-1 Cardinals ATS: 7-5-1
Projected Team Totals: Browns 25.5 Cardinals 23

Browns

Opp (ARI) Pass DVOA: #29
Opp (ARI) Run DVOA: #13
Opp (ARI) Weighted DEF: #26
Injuries to Watch DEF (ARI): CB Kevin Peterson (Q) LB Joe Walker (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): C JC Tretter (Q) OT Chris Hubbard (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Odell Beckham vs. Patrick Peterson (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jarvis Landry (30%) Odell Beckham (23%) Kareem Hunt (17%) Antonio Callaway (12%) David Njoku (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nick Chubb (70%, 16, 1) Kareem Hunt (62%, 11, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Cleveland won the battle of Ohio last week, it wasn’t pretty, and it wasn’t without drama. Baker Mayfield (upgrade) was inconsistent yet again, throwing for only 192 scoreless yards, with two interceptions. He’s sandwiched two serviceable fantasy outings with three that weren’t over the last five, so a bounce back seems likely. Arizona has proven time and again they can’t guard anyone, ranking 29th in Pass DVOA and 26th in Weighted Defense - ceding 24.5 FPPG to QBs, and 25.4 to WRs. Mayfield becomes an appealing matchup based QB1 this week, consider him a top-10 option.
The Cleveland passing game has been a wasteland all season, with Jarvis Landry (upgrade PPR) being the only solid fantasy asset. Odell Beckham is having the worst season of his career, and is reportedly playing through a sports hernia. His expected shadow matchup with CB Patrick Peterson isn’t imposing, as Peterson has struggled against No. 1 WRs (Rotoworld). A viable fantasy day isn’t out of the question, yet OBJ is far from trustworthy at this point in the season, especially since we know now he’s been playing through injury. That being said, Arizona cedes explosive pass plays (20+yards) at a 12% clip, 3rd worst in the NFL (sharpfootballstats). Consider him a boom-or-bust WR2 in the great on-paper matchup. Landry on the other hand, has vacuumed up at least seven targets in every game over the last five weeks, clearing 10 targets in three out of five. He’s seeing monster usage, and there’s no reason to expect it to slow down. He’s a borderline WR1, and needs to be in all lineups. David Njoku returned last week, splitting time with fellow tight ends Stephen Carlson, and Ricky Seals-Jones. This is a smash spot for the position - ARI hemorrhages 13.1 FPPG to TEs, league worst - but with Njoku popping up on the injury report again with a knee issue, plus the timeshare at tight end, there really isn’t a viable fantasy play here.
RB Breakdown
Like many other backfields in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns are now utilizing a committee, to the dismay of Nick Chubb (upgrade standard) owners everywhere. Fortunately, both Chubb and Kareem Hunt (upgrade PPR) are seeing solid touch counts, and having both on the field at the same time has become a regular occurrence since Hunt became available. Arizona possesses a much better Run DVOA than Pass DVOA, but game-script and scoring opportunities should work in favor of the Cleveland backfield. Arizona plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the NFL, so there should be plenty of opportunities to go around. Consider Chubb an RB1, and Hunt a borderline RB2 play in PPR settings - ARI cedes 19.5 FPPG to the position.

Cardinals

Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #13
Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #25
Opp (CLE) Weighted DEF: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): DE Olivier Vernon (OUT) CB Eric Murray (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ARI): WR Andy Isabella (Q) OL Justin Pugh (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Christian Kirk (24%) Larry Fitzgerald (19%) Kenyan Drake (16%) Pharoh Cooper (11%) KeeSean Johnson (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Kenyan Drake (65%, 14, 3) David Johnson (37%, 5, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Cardinals season has taken a downward plunge in recent weeks, and Kyler Murray and company have only managed to score 24 combined points in back-to-back matchups (Rotoworld). Murray has made some downright silly mistakes, and while some of it can be chalked up to being a rookie, some mistakes shouldn’t be seen at the NFL level. His O-line isn’t doing him any favors either, he’s the most-sacked QB of 2019 (teamrankings.com). At home against Cleveland is the easiest matchup he’s seen in recent weeks, but it’s no cakewalk - Cleveland has a sturdy secondary, ranking in the top-half for Pass DVOA - and cedes just 18.2 FPPG to QBs and 20.6 to WRs. Still, Murray has demonstrated a high-floor through multiple tough matchups, and warrants every week QB1 consideration. Just be aware that although he always has boom potential, this week projects more as a floor performance.
Although he’s done little since his Week 10 explosion, Christian Kirk’s (upgrade volume) 8.8 targets per game rank 13th among wideouts this season (Rotoworld). Again, the matchup doesn’t scream boom week, but Cleveland has been inconsistent at best this season, and Kirk’s volume should keep him in the WR3 ranks. Larry Fitzgerald, after turning back the clock in the beginning of the season, has bottomed out over the second half. He shouldn’t be considered anything more than a low-end WR4, so look elsewhere. The auxiliary passing options shouldn't be considered for Arizona.
RB Breakdown
Like the Cleveland backfield, the Arizona backfield is devolving into a two man RBBC. Unlike Cleveland, it’s not bearing fruit in the way of fantasy points for either running back. Kenyan Drake has ceded snaps to David Johnson since the bye week, and at this point neither can be fully trusted. Drake is the preferred option, and the matchup is good on paper, but due to DJ’s involvement, he’s no more than a back-end RB2. DJ is a big-balls dart throw; it can’t be recommended. CLE cedes 18.6 FPPG to RBs.
Score Prediction: Browns 24, Cardinals 21

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

Falcons ATS: 5-8-0 49ers ATS: 8-4-1
Projected Team Totals: Falcons 18.75 49ers 29.25

Falcons

Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #9
Opp (SF) Weighted DEF: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DE Dee Ford (OUT) DT DJ Jones (OUT) CB Richard Sherman (OUT) S Jaquiski Tartt (OUT) DT Jullian Taylor (OUT) CB K’Waun Williams (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ATL): OG James Carpenter (OUT) OT Ty Sambrailo (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julio Jones (22%) Calvin Ridley (20%) Russell Gage (16%) Austin Hooper (16%) Devonta Freeman (11%) Christian Blake (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Devonta Freeman (67%, 21, 4) Brian Hill (19%, 9, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Atlanta’s second half resurgence continued against a rudderless Carolina team last week. Matt Ryan (downgrade) has returned to form of late, posting back-to-back solid fantasy performances. His ankle injury may have been the reason for the mid-season stumble, but either way, against a ferocious 49ers defense and without offensive weapon Calvin Ridley (OUT-IR), just isn’t the time to chase points. While the argument can be made that the San Francisco defense is banged up, they still possess most of the pass rushers that have carried them this season. Atlanta has struggled to keep Ryan upright, he’s been sacked the 5th most in the NFL (teamrankings). He’s no more than a back-end QB2 in a tough matchup - SF gives up just 15 FPPG to QBs and 17.9 to WRs.
Ridley’s injury vacated 20% of the target share to Atlanta’s pass catchers, and Russell Gage is the best bet to assume his snaps and some of his target share. Yet, he still projects as a distant third option to Julio Jones (upgrade volume) and Austin Hooper (upgrade volume). The remaining receivers split snaps evenly last week, and aren’t realistic options in the tough draw. Julio should be peppered with targets san Ridley, and should be treated as an every-week WR1 regardless of matchup. Same goes for Hooper, both should be active in most lineups.
RB Breakdown
Since returning from injury, Devonta Freeman (upgrade volume) has accumulated 20+ touches in two of three games. As long as he’s operating as the clear lead back and receiving the bulk of the touches, he’ll continue to be a floor-play RB2. The matchup is imposing - SF cedes just 12.2 FPPG to RBs - but Freeman’s volume should stabilize his floor, just don’t expect a big day.

49ers

Opp (ATL) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (ATL) Run DVOA: #16
Opp (ATL) Weighted DEF: #23
Injuries to Watch DEF (ATL): DE Allen Bailey (OUT) CB Isaiah Oliver (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): George Kittle (23%) Deebo Samuel (20%) Emmanuel Sanders (17%) Kendrick Bourne (12%) Ross Dwelley (12%) Tevin Coleman (8%) Raheem Mostert (5%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Raheem Mostert (60%, 12, 2) Matt Breida (18%, 7, 1) Tevin Coleman (16%, 3, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The 49ers won the game of the year last week, in an exciting shootout on the road against the New Orleans Saints, 48-46. Jimmy Garoppolo (upgrade) showed critics a side of him many thought he didn’t possess, by not just managing the game, but gun slinging his way to victory when facing a deficit. He may be more than an elite game manager, rolling up 349-yards passing, with four touchdowns and an interception. On tap is an exploitable secondary that has been dissected by opposing signal callers routinely - ATL cedes 22.1 FPPG to QBs and 24.3 to WRs - Jimmy G is a very attractive QB1 streaming option in the plus matchup.
The addition of Emmanuel Sanders (upgrade) and Deebo Samuel, with the emergence of Kendrick Bourne, has created an explosive receiving corps for the 49ers. The three have settled in as the fulltime wideouts, clearing up what used to be a mess of a rotation. Sanders and Samuel are both solid fantasy plays against an Atlanta team that boasts a true pass funnel; ranking much higher in Run DVOA than Pass DVOA. Adding to that, CB Desmond Trufant has been placed on IR, creating an even softer matchup. The concern is volume. Positive game-script early could erase the need for passing, so hopefully the injuries to San Francisco’s defense allow Atlanta to stay in the game. Consider Sanders a WR2, and Samuel an upside WR3. Kendrick Bourne is a no more than a DFS dart throw. George Kittle is an every week top-3 option at tight end. Fire him up - ATL cedes 7.5 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
Two camps exist when it comes to the 49ers backfield. There are those that think Raheem Mostert has completed a hostile takeover, and is now the lead back. And there are those that think a Kyle Shanahan offense takes the hot hand approach, and that Matt Breida or Tevin Coleman could be next in-line to have the big week. Kyle Shanahan has stated that Mostert has “earned” his role as the lead ball-carrier, but we’ve seen that talk before from coaches, just look at Ronald Jones. Either way, Mostert has earned every-week RB2 consideration, but be warned, this backfield can change in an instant. Breida and Coleman are much riskier propositions, and can’t be started as more than desperation dart throws. They’ll likely still be involved in some capacity, but it’s not worth betting on.
Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Falcons 17

LA Rams (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Rams ATS: 9-4-0 Cowboys ATS: 7-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Rams 25.25 Cowboys 23.75

Rams

Opp (DAL) Pass DVOA: #24
Opp (DAL) Run DVOA: #19
Opp (DAL) Weighted DEF: #21
Injuries to Watch DEF (DAL): LB Leighton Vander Esch (OUT) LB Sean Lee (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAR): TE Gerald Everett (OUT) OT Rob Havenstein (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Robert Woods (30%) Tyler Higbee (19%) Cooper Kupp (16%) Gerald Everett (15%) Josh Reynolds (10%) Todd Gurley (9%) Brandin Cooks (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Todd Gurley (80%, 27, 4) Malcolm Brown (20%, 5, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
After his first blow-up week in a long time, Jared Goff (streamer) returned to his mediocre 2019 levels in Week 14’s win over Seattle, at least in terms of fantasy points. The positive is that the Rams offense suddenly looks at least partially back to its old ways, scoring 28 and 34 points the last two weeks, albeit against questionable defenses. This week, Goff will take aim at the Cowboys - 24th ranked pass DVOA but allowing the 13th fewest FPPG to QBs. Dallas got lit up by Mitchell Trubisky last week, and are on a downward trend overall, so this actually sets up as a favorable matchup for Goff. Consider him on the QB1/2 borderline, and ride him if you are thin at QB as he should be able to produce a point total that lands somewhere in between his last two performances.
What started as a year for the record books has turned into a disappointment in a hurry for Cooper Kupp (start). Despite the Rams being without their top TE Gerald Everett (out again this week) the past few weeks, Kupp hasn’t gone over 70-receiving yards since Week 8. He snagged a TD last week to salvage his day, and could be on the verge of a breakout day with the Rams offense starting to hum again. The Cowboys have given up the 8th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this isn’t an ideal matchup, but Kupp should still be viewed on the WR2/3 borderline and be in most lineups this week. The only consistent producer over the last month at WR for the Rams has been Robert Woods (auto-start). Woods has gone over 90-yards in 4 straight games he’s played in, and looks to be Goff’s #1 target at this point in the season. Consider him a borderline WR1 this week. Brandin Cooks (volume downgrade) just hasn’t seen much volume since returning from his multi-week concussion absence, and played about a third of the offensive snaps last week. He can break a big play at any time, but his role is too tough to trust as more than a WR3/4 at this point. If you have the depth, Cooks should likely be on your bench as only a part-time player in a difficult matchup. With Everett out again this week, Tyler Higbee (volume upgrade) will resume his role as the clear pass-catching TE for the Rams. He’s won a lot of matchups for owners the past two weeks, and should continue to thrive as long as Everett is sidelined. The Cowboys have given up the 10th most FPPG to TEs, so there’s no reason to view Higbee as less than an elite TE1 this week.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps part of the reason that the Rams have looked re-energized the last two weeks is the commitment to the run game with Todd Gurley (volume upgrade). The offensive line and entire team are getting healthier, and Gurley is getting the volume necessary for an RB1 valuation. The Cowboys have given up the 16th fewest FPPG to RBs and have the 19th ranked rush defense by DVOA, so the matchup is basically a wash. Consider Gurley on the RB1/2 borderline, and get him locked into your lineup for a game the Rams absolutely have to win to remain in the playoff race. Malcolm Brown makes for a worthwhile handcuff.

Cowboys

Opp (LAR) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (LAR) Run DVOA: #3
Opp (LAR) Weighted DEF: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAR): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (DAL): None
Key WCB matchups: Amari Cooper vs. Jalen Ramsey (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Gallup (20%) Amari Cooper (19%) Randall Cobb (15%) Jason Witten (15%) Ezekiel Elliott (10%) Blake Jarwin (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Ezekiel Elliott (99%, 21, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
While the Cowboys have been a huge disappointment overall, they remain firmly in the playoff race due to the antiquated NFL seeding rules, and their QB Dak Prescott (auto-start) has shown he is deserving of a huge contract extension. The Rams have given up the 12th fewest FPPG to QBs, and have the 9th ranked pass DVOA, but Prescott will be needed for a big day if Dallas is to get a win at home. Their solid projected point total, and Dak’s consistent presence as a top-5 QB in fantasy, means that Prescott should be a fixture in fantasy lineups in the second week of fantasy playoffs. He’s a solid QB1.
Amari Cooper (slight downgrade) may not like the term “garbage time”, but it’s hard to argue that’s not the scenario in which he caught his TD pass and salvaged his day against the Bears. Regardless, Cooper was able to produce despite looking less than 100%, and isn’t on the injury report this week. However, he’s likely to face Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage this week, which is a concern considering just how good Ramsey has been since landing in LA. Cooper has been more effective against shadow coverage this year than in previous years, and his role in the offense combined with his individual talent make him tough to bench. View him as a high-end WR2 that is capable of breaking Ramsey’s coverage, but could also finish with a disappointing 2-30-0 type of day as well. Michael Gallup (upgrade) has been relatively productive over the last month, and he could benefit from Ramsey’s focus on Cooper. The Rams overall cede the 15th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this is a spot for Gallup to potentially come through for owners. Consider him a mid-range WR2 with upside this week in a game the Boys will likely need to throw heavily to win. Randall Cobb has benefitted from the high volume of passing in the Cowboys rough last five games, but will likely see a lot of highly-graded CB Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot (PFF). Consider Cobb a low-end WR3 whose ceiling isn’t extremely high, but whose floor makes for a useful asset in deeper leagues. Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin have rendered each other relatively unstartable this season, and both should be viewed as low-volume TE2s. Neither is worth starting this week against a Rams squad giving up the 7th fewest FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
The Cowboys were without Tony Pollard last week, but that didn’t serve to change their game plan much as Ezekiel Elliott (auto-start) has been a workhorse all year long. Pollard is expected to return on Sunday, but Zeke will get his 20+ touches again this week regardless. The Rams are stout on the ground - 3rd best DVOA and 10th fewest FPPG to RBs- but Zeke is an easy RB1 due to his volume and talent. Get him locked into your lineup, and keep Pollard rostered as a feel-good insurance policy.
Score Prediction: Rams 21, Cowboys 17

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at LA Chargers

Vikings ATS: 7-6-0 Chargers ATS: 4-7-3
Projected Team Totals: Vikings 24 Chargers 21.5

Vikings

Opp (LAC) Pass DVOA: #20
Opp (LAC) Run DVOA: #23
Opp (LAC) Weighted DEF: #18
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAC): LB Uchenna Nwosu (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): RB Alexander Mattison (Q) WR Bisi Johnson (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Stefon Diggs vs. Casey Hayward (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Stefon Diggs (20%) Dalvin Cook (15%) Kyle Rudolph (13%) Irv Smith (13%) Bisi Johnson (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Dalvin Cook (47%, 20, 2) Alexander Mattison (37%, 16, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Last week was a game that fantasy owners always fear; the home favorite Vikings so outmatched the injury riddled Lions that none of the offensive weapons were needed for a big day to capture the win. Kirk Cousins (low-end QB1) was solid as a game manager, but finished with only 242 yards and 1 TD. This week he’ll likely be in a more competitive game with the Chargers, who have given up the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs. While this should lead to higher volume for Kirk, the matchup concern is a legitimate reason to consider keeping him on the bench. Getting Adam Thielen back from injury should help to establish his floor, but his ceiling isn’t as high considering the Chargers are not often involved in shootouts. Owners can view Cousins as a low-end QB1, and throw him in lineups if they don’t have a safer and higher upside option.
Cousins will have stud receiver Adam Thielen (downgrade) back on the field this week, and that means owners will have a tough decision to make with their lineups. Stefon Diggs (start) is likely to see Casey Hayward in shadow coverage this week, which would leave Thielen with more positive matchups, but Diggs is easier to trust given his body of work throughout the year. The Chargers have given up the 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs this year, giving both receivers a slight downgrade in outlook. Consider Thielen a WR3, and Diggs a WR2. Both have a solid case to be in starting lineups this week, but Diggs is the slightly preferred play. Kyle Rudolph (downgrade) gets a tough potential individual matchup with stud safety Derwin James, and needs to be pushed just outside the TE1 ranks this week. The Chargers have given up the 9th fewest FPPG to TEs, and Rudolph is quite TD-dependent, so consider your options before plugging him in. Irv Smith simply isn’t seeing the volume to be trusted at this point, so he should be viewed as a low-end TE2 in a tough matchup.
RB Breakdown
Fantasy superstar Dalvin Cook (auto-start, upgrade) was subject to the same issue as Cousins, as he saw an uncharacteristic 47% snap share, but still was able to save his line with a few nice runs and a short TD plunge. This week sets up much better for Cook, as the game should be competitive throughout, and the Chargers are more vulnerable to the run than the pass. They’ve given up the 13th most FPPG to RBs and have a bottom-third run DVOA, so get Cook fired up as an elite RB1 once again. Keep Alexander Mattison (stash) rostered as a top-3 handcuff, even if he ends up being ruled out. If Cook were to suffer a setback or pick up a minor injury, Mattison would be an elite RB1 for the fantasy finals assuming he’s healthy.

Chargers

Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA: #7
Opp (MIN) Weighted DEF: #9
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): S Jayron Kearse (OUT) CB Xavier Rhodes (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAC): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Keenan Allen (23%) Hunter Henry (20%) Austin Ekeler (17%) Mike Williams (13%) Melvin Gordon (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Austin Ekeler (49%, 12, 5) Melvin Gordon (46%, 17, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Chargers came a bit out of nowhere last week to drop 45 points in their win over the Jags. Philip Rivers (slight downgrade) eclipsed 25 points for the first time this season, and was dealing all game long. He’ll face a stiffer matchup from the Vikings - Minnesota cedes the 11th fewest FPPG to QBs and has the 11th ranked pass DVOA. Consider Rivers a mid-range QB2; his ceiling isn’t extremely high but his weapons should establish his floor as a solid asset in 2QB or superflex leagues.
Still not producing at levels owner are accustomed to, Keenan Allen (start) has at least returned solid value over his past 4 games with good yardage and 2 total TDs. Mike Williams (downgrade PPR) FINALLY scored his first TD of the year, after getting 10 last year, and continues to make impressive contested chunk catches week in and week out. The Vikings have given up the 8th most FPPG to WRs, and Xavier Rhodes is no longer a shutdown shadow corner, so both WRs are worth starting consideration. Consider Allen a WR2, with upside in PPR leagues, and view Williams as a WR3 with an upgrade in standard leagues. The Vikings pass rush is impressive, and the Chargers O-line has struggled to keep Rivers upright against top defensive lines, so having the time to throw downfield might make Allen more productive than Williams this week. Hunter Henry (start) found the end zone last week, and despite some low yardage totals the last month remains a solid TE1 this week. The Vikings have allowed the 14th most FPPG to TEs, so this isn’t a shy-away matchup by any means. Get Henry active unless you have a top-3 alternative, as he might benefit from additional short throws due to Rivers needing to get the ball out quick.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps the most important player to the Chargers this year has been the explosive and dynamic all around back, Austin Ekeler (auto-start). He put up a career-high 213 scrimmage yards in the win last week, which was buoyed by an impressive 84 yard catch and run TD. Melvin Gordon (PPR downgrade) got in on the action by rolling up 84 total yards and a TD, and should continue to handle a slight majority of the carries. Ekeler’s role is slightly more valuable, however, as his looks in the passing game often give him room to make plays in the open field, and give him a higher floor in PPR leagues. Consider Ekeler on the RB1/2 borderline, especially in PPR formats, and Gordon can be viewed as a solid RB2. Both should be in lineups this week, despite the Vikings giving up the 6th fewest FPPG to RBs, but Ekeler is a bit safer as he doesn’t require rushing lanes up the middle or goal-line opportunities to be able to rack up the points.
Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Chargers 16

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

Colts ATS: 6-5-2 Saints ATS: 8-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Colts 18.75 Saints 27.25

Colts

Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Weighted DEF: #7
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO) Friday Report: LB Kiko Alonso (DNP) S Vonn Bell (DNP) CB Patrick Robinson (DNP) DE Cameron Jordan (LP) LB AJ Klein (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (IND) Friday Report: WR TY Hilton (LP) OL Le’Raven Clark (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): T.Y. Hilton (24%) Zach Pascal (20%) Jack Doyle (15%) Parris Campbell (15%) Nyheim Hines (12%) Deon Cain (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nyheim Hines (56%, 8, 5) Marlon Mack (41%, 13, 0) Jordan Wilkins (14%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
This season has gone south fast for the Colts, dropping five of their last six games, and Jacoby Brissett (downgrade) has been much less effective in the second half of the season. He was able to take advantage of the Buccaneers ridiculously bad secondary last week in a close loss, but will face a stiffer challenge this week. The Saints give up the 10th most FPPG to QBs, but have the 10th best pass DVOA, and Brissett may be without his top WR again this week. Consider him a low-upside QB2, and don’t look his way unless desperate in a 2QB or superflex league.
TY Hilton (injury downgrade) is currently listed as a game time decision for MNF, making him a risky starting proposition due to the fact that most of the alternative options in your lineup will have already played by the time we get final clarity on his status. Unless there is a report stating definitively he will suit up, it’s best to avoid him this week. If you own Zach Pascal (start only if Hilton sits), you could also use him as a pivot option in case Hilton is ruled out before kickoff. If that’s the case, it would leave Pascal in position to soak up another high target total. He’s been extremely productive the past two weeks, and the Saints give up the 3rd most FPPG to WRs, so if he’s the #1 option this week he should be in your lineup. However, it’s hard to bank on this as Hilton likely won’t be declared active or inactive until just before kickoff, so it’s tough to bench more established studs for him during Sunday’s games. Consider Pascal a borderline WR2 if Hilton sits, but he’s no more than a boom-bust WR3/4 if Hilton plays. It’s likely best to avoid this situation entirely if you can, and either player could potentially see Marcus Lattimore in shadow coverage if the Saints decide to go that route as well. With Eric Ebron out for the year, Jack Doyle (upgrade) has shown flashes, but put up a 2-27 dud last week. Brissett likes throwing to his TEs, and Doyle is a great red-zone threat, so with the scarcity of quality options at the position Doyle is a mid-range TE1. The Saints are middle of the pack against TEs, so get him in your lineups this week unless you have a higher floor elite option.
RB Breakdown
Another tough draw is on deck for Marlon Mack (volume upgrade). He played 41% of snaps in his return from injury, receiving only 13 touches. Still, he looked healthy, and was clearly the lead back. The Colts will likely increase his workload moving forward, and he should see closer to 20 touches this week, game-script permitting. New Orleans has only ceded 14.2 FPPG to the position, but Mack’s projected volume keep him in the RB2 ranks. Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are merely afterthoughts in this offense with the return of the Mack, and both can be safely dropped.

Saints

Opp (IND) Pass DVOA: #14
Opp (IND) Run DVOA: #20
Opp (IND) Weighted DEF: #15
Injuries to Watch DEF (IND) Friday Report: CB Kenny Moore (DNP) CB Pierre Desir (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO) Friday Report: OT Terron Armstead (LP) OL Will Clapp (LP) OG Andrus Peat (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Thomas (30%) Alvin Kamara (22%) Jared Cook (15%) Ted Ginn (10%) Tre’Quan Smith (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Alvin Kamara (76%, 17, 6) Latavius Murray (33%, 9, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Lamar Jackson broke Michael Vick’s single-season rushing record for a quarterback on Thursday Night Football this week, so it would be fitting for Primetime Drew Brees (upgrade) to break the all-time passing touchdown record on Monday Night Football in the same week. Brees is sitting at 537 career touchdown passes, just two shy of Peyton Manning. However, Tom Brady is at 536, so it’s possible that going into MNF, Brees will be chasing both Manning and Brady (NFL.com) Indianapolis has been fading of late, Jameis Winston just posted 456-yards and four touchdowns against a usually solid secondary. Monday feels like it’ll be a special moment for Brees, he’s a top-5 QB option, fire him up.
Michael Thomas (upgrade) is also chasing greatness, going after Marvin Harrison’s single-season reception record of 143. Thomas is just twenty-three catches shy with three weeks left to go (NFL.com). Indy’s zone defense should provide plenty of underneath windows for the stud wideout, he’s an every-week elite WR1. The other wideouts are riskier: neither Ted Ginn or Tre’Quan Smith can be relied upon, and should be treated as boom-or-bust dart throws. Jared Cook has emerged as the No. 3 passing option since Brees returned from injury, vacuuming up a 15% target share in the last six weeks. He’s expected to suit up Monday, after a concussion knocked him out of last week's barn burner. He’s an every week TE1 - IND cedes 7.3 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
It was extremely disappointing to watch the Saints roll up yards and points in the shootout last week, while Alvin Kamara (upgrade) busted on 17 touches. Latavius Murray was given fewer snaps and touches than Kamara, but was able to parlay his limited opportunity into a successful fantasy outing. Unfortunately, that’s just fantasy football sometimes; a plethora of variables exist and many cannot be predicted. Kamara owners that managed to survive the opening round of playoffs, despite his unfortunate bust week, need to renew their faith for this one. Indy cedes just 14.4 FPPG to RBs - but they are bottom-12 in Run DVOA. Additionally, we may be back to a reality in which the Saints score 30 a week in The Big Easy. I’m not betting against the positive game-script the home matchup should provide; Lat “Pulldown” Murray can be considered a viable, albeit slightly unpredictable, flex option as well.
Score Prediction: Saints 35, Colts 20
submitted by Roto_G to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

Correlative Parlays in the MLB Futures Market - Create +EV from O/U Win Totals

Correlated Season Win Totals
TL;DR: Parlaying divisional teams in MLB Win Total O/Us can create +EV bets
The outcomes of season win totals for teams are not independent of each other. Because there are a finite number of wins available, we know that it would be impossible to bet and win 100% of under wagers. In fact, we can come up with a distribution of possible outcomes by simulating past seasons, but that is something for another day.
What we’d like to focus on is the correlation of win totals between specific teams in the MLB. The MLB schedule is designed such that a team plays each of its four divisional opponents 19 teams each (76 games). That team also plays 66 games against the 10 other league rivals and plays 20 interleague games.
The concentration of divisional games, however, gives us a situation where there is a significant correlation between win total outcomes between divisional rivals. For example, if the SF Giants go 19-0 against the LA Dodgers, the Giants have a good chance of hitting their win total “over” while the Dodgers have a good chance of hitting their win total “under”. Thus, if you were betting these two teams, their win totals are clearly not independent of one another.
If win totals between different teams were truly independent of one another, we would expect each instance to have a 50.0% chance of happening (assuming no win inflation) and we’d be able to simply multiply the probability of each outcome to determine the probabilities associated with the outcome matrix as shown below.
https://imgur.com/de1Y7EW
As displayed above, the odds of the Team A going over their win total (50.0% likelihood) and Team B going under (50.0% likelihood) would be 25.0% (50.0% x 50.0%).
However, we know that these events aren’t truly independent of one another. In fact, we can measure the correlation between divisional rivals’ win totals by simulating the season using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. After 50,000 simulations, we have determined that on average, when one divisional rival goes over their win total, a divisional opponent would go under their win total approximately 54.0% of their time. That gives us the following outcome matrix:
https://imgur.com/u2hpkvB
As you can see, the probability of both teams going under their win totals decreases from 25.0% to 23.0% when we acknowledge the correlation between the two.
How to Incorporate Into a Betting Strategy
If you parlay two -110 wagers, you will typically get odds of +264 (+264.46 to be exact). These odds are determined by multiplying the breakeven win probability on each leg of the parlay. With each leg priced at -110, you need to hit each leg at 52.4%, and therefore win 27.4% of the time (52.4% x 52.4%) to breakeven at +264 odds. These calculations are displayed below.

Parlay Pricing Odds Breakeven %
Wager 1 -110 52.4%
Wager 2 -110 52.4%
Parlay Breakeven % 27.4%
Parlay Odds +264
The pricing on parlays implicitly assumes that each leg of the parlay is independent of each other and you therefore only have a 25.0% of hitting that parlay. As a result, the expected return for a randomly selected parlay is approximately -8.9%.

Outcome Probability Payoff
Win 25.0% +264.5
Wager 2 75.0% -100
100% -8.9
Parlay EV -8.9%

A correlated parlay is not random, however. In fact, due to the correlation between season win totals for divisional rivals, if we were to parlay one divisional over with one divisional under, our win probability would be approximately 27.0% The difference between 27.0% and 25.0% may not seem like much, but it increases our EV from -8.9% to -1.6%.

Outcome Probability Payoff
Win 27.0% +264.5
Wager 2 73.0% -100
100% -1.6
Parlay EV -1.6%

Still -EV but getting close. In fact, this edge is so small now, it only takes some basic line shopping to move into +EV territory. Let’s say one book offers the Dodgers at Over 101.5 -110, and one offers Over 101.5 -105. Just having that one leg at -105 increases our EV from -1.6% to +0.6%.
Where Can I Bet on Correlated Parlays?
Unfortunately, most sportsbooks are wise enough to recognize the correlation and don’t offer parlays on season win totals. A few do, however.
5Dimes is one of the offshore books that allows parlaying of season win totals for divisional rivals in the MLB (and other sports). Below we’re sharing a couple (significantly) +EV parlays that you can hit on 5Dimes. While most people have a single go-to sportsbook, this is another instance where having multiple sportsbooks at your disposal gives you a long-term advantage.
Plus-EV Parlays at 5Dimes
Parlay #1: Phillies Over 84.5 (-105) and Marlins Under 64.5 (+115)
Odds: +320
Breakeven %: 23.8%
Est. Win %: 27.2%
Expected Value (%): 14.3%
Analysis: Across six different sportsbooks (offshore and U.S.) the next-best odds to be found on Marlins U64.5 is +104 (FanDuel and Pinnacle). 5Dimes is 11-cents better than the next best offering on the Marlins. Most books are offering the Phillies at 85.5 with odds between -110 and +110. We’d rather take the 5Dimes line of Over 84.5/-105 and spend the 15 cents to cross the 85 instead of taking Over 85.5/+110 based on our assumed push probability of 4.5% for win totals. With the correlative properties increasing our win % an addition ~2%, we find there to be considerable value with this parlay.
Parlay #2: Cubs Over 85.5 (+100) and Cardinals Under 86.5 (+110)
Odds: +320
Breakeven %: 23.8%
Est. Win %: 28.0%
Expected Value (%): 17.7%
Analysis: This one is more about the value on the Cardinals that the Cubs, to be honest. The offshore books are sitting at a heavily juiced 87.5 for the Cardinals under (Pinnacle U87.5 -158). FanDuel is the only other book offering Under 86.5, and they are offering -110. At +110, there is tremendous value on the Cardinals leg. The Cubs leg isn’t as profitable, but still approximately 7-cents better than consensus.
Conclusion: Using this framework can lead to endless correlative parlay possibilities with +EV, but it is critical to have multiple sportsbook accounts - finding the right sportsbook to take your bet is a key blocker from extracting value.
submitted by cleatstreet to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Reasons why online betting is better than offline betting

1) Save the effort of going to the brick and mortar- With the advent of online betting, the punter in you need not worry about going all the way to the venue to attend a game or go to a casino. Place your bet from the comfort of your couch with a laptop or mobile phone, without dropping a sweat!
2) No hidden costs- If you consider all the money you have spent on traveling to the brick and mortar for placing a bet or the dimes spent on snacks and drinks at the game, you would surely say- “ Next time, I am gonna bet online.” You will not spend any such money while betting online!
3) The plethora of sports to choose from- The world of online betting has opened up many new opportunities- you may bet on all-time favorite games like cricket or football which is popular in your country, or consider other sports that you might have not even heard of before.
4) There are a variety of wagers too! Offline betting facilities only have a few wager options like spreads, money lines, and totals. That’s all you get when you place a bet offline! However, go online and the number of wagers multiplies! Can you expect a multi-team teaser or a parlay offline? Can your bookie offer you in-depth futures and props? Such wager options are available only online!
5) Avoid distractions of the game- Placing a bet online lets you focus on the bet itself- the oohs and aahs of a horse race or thousands of people cheering around you in a cricket match may distract with your ability to focus on picks! Whisk away your kids, open your laptops and concentrate with a clear mind.
6) Higher payouts- Online betting websites do not have to maintain overhead costs, unlike their brick-and-mortar predecessors. Hence, they are able to offer higher payouts. If you too want to reap such benefits, then you can get information from the sportsbook and let the good times roll in!
7) Bonuses or rewards- Any business in the virtual world faces stiff competition, and this is true for online betting as well! In order to attract more visitors, there are reward programs like a referral or reload bonuses- and no such rewards exist for offline betting.
8) Understand sports data, latest news, and trends- Even if you are a newbie to the world of betting, online betting websites offer you a variety of information that can aid you in decision making! You can surely not access such information if you are betting offline.
9) Safety and Trust- While some people will say that offline betting is safer with trusted faces around, be assured that online betting is no less in matters of safety. In fact, you can research well about online betting services and read through customer reviews beforehand and make a well-informed decision.
10) Your betting strategy remains yours- Over a period of time, you might get chummy with your offline bookie, or lower your guard in front of him. This will help him figure out your betting strategies and habits he might use to gain an advantage over you. No such things will happen on a betting website. In fact, you do not even have to reveal your identity!
submitted by PresentType to slot777theinfomore [link] [comments]

John Mayer: Connector of Worlds

Several weeks ago I read a piece from Packy McCormick’s great newsletter, Not Boring, in which he wrote, “There are two ways to predict the future: you can call it or you can build it.” He smartly outlined two archetypes of leadership and entrepreneurship: Shotcallers versus Worldbuilders.
To paraphrase Packy:
Muhammad Ali was a Shotcaller; he announced he would knock you out, and then he did. Jeff Bezos is a Worldbuilder; he recognized the massive opportunity in eCommerce, started with books as the “first best product” to sell online, and then ruthlessly executed on his vision until he parlayed a bookstore into an empire of video streaming, grocery stores, cloud computing, and more.
In his essay, Packy crowns the Worldbuilder as the better archetype, particularly in the context of consumer tech. I loved the framework and it got me thinking: who would be on my Worldbuilder list? I started to jot down some names and added examples throughout the week as they popped in my head. When I scanned my list a couple of days later, though, I realized most of them didn’t really fit the Worldbuilder profile, but represented some other persona. I DM’d Packy.
“What do you think about the idea of Worldconnectors?”
“Write it,” he said. Here we are.
I’m introducing Worldconnectors not in opposition to Shotcallers or Worldbuilders, but as another archetype for consideration.
Why should we care? Where the Worldbuilder accomplishes feats of ambition and engineering, the Worldconnector is a master of authenticity and connection. They find a way to say and create what they want, preserve their independence while doing it, and prosper along the way. I believe that’s important for the culture and society, important for business, important for our wellbeing. And it’s important we see how all of those things are connected too.
Ok, let’s introduce a Worldconnector. Our first example is...John Mayer.
Let me explain. Maybe you love his music, maybe you loathe it. Maybe he frustrates you because he’s a guitar virtuoso who makes straightforward pop tunes. I know people with very strong Mayer emotions. The dude can be polarizing. But it’s undeniable that he possesses a type of genius.
Let’s break it down:
Mayer has Millennial fans who grew up with him, he has Gen Z fans who love his music and his collaborations with emerging pop artists, and he’s got their parents, late Gen X Dead Heads who’ve totally embraced his unlikely role in Dead & Company. The guy who wrote “Your Body is a Wonderland” is now welcomed by the jam band faithful as Jerry Garcia’s successor. That, my friends, is reaching across the aisle.
He collects vintage timepieces and is an authority among the watch-obsessed community. He’s a stealth fashion influencer, suffusing personal style through all of his projects and appearances. He is both a connoisseur of classics and a notorious hypebeast. As my friend @euko noted, the web gets more interesting the further you follow each thread: “Even his fashion interest alone connects him to everything from japanese forms to blockbuster movies. Mayer loves Acronym, a technical apparel brand inspired by functionality and martial arts, whose founder designs pieces for the Fast and the Furious franchise as well as Death Stranding, one of the biggest video games of the last year.”
Mayer is bros with Dave Chapelle and tours with him, performing hybrid concerts and comedy shows. And one of his best friends is Andy Cohen, the maestro of Bravo, which is extremely on-brand as far as friendships go, given Mayer’s lengthy history of tabloid exploits and celebrity drama.
As he settles into his own brand of maturity, Mayer’s most intriguing quality is ambiguity. He has one foot cemented in gossipy, plasticized mainstream culture, while another dances in and out of various niches, most notably the cult of “The Dead,” whose dancing bears and stealie skull are some of the strongest symbols of counterculture in American history. There are four generational cohorts who care about John Mayer. He’s a kind of portal from Gen Z back to the ‘60s, a link from the acid tests to Insta stories.
All of this coalesces in his homespun variety show on Instagram, “Current Mood.” I think it’s one of the most interesting new media projects of the last couple years.
📷
There are a lot of Mayer data points here. Let’s visualize it:

John Mayer

Wolrdconnector nickname: “The Celeb Everyman”
Network type: Sparse Clustering
Platform of choice: Instagram
📷

What makes a Worldconnector?

Now, let’s look at some other examples.

Sam Harris

Worldconnector nickname: “The mind guide”
Network type: Vertical Integration
Platform of choice: Podcasting
📷
Working from a background in neuroscience, Harris branches into various intellectual pursuits and commercial projects that all tie back to theory of mind. He publishes books, talks at events, hosts a podcast, and created the Waking Up App. He’s a member of the “Intellectual Dark Web” but speaks to a growing audience of 1.3M Twitter followers right out in the open. In any venue, he can go into politics or spirituality or tech, and it all feels integrated and authentic. For a guy that seems to be in many places all at once, he’s a master of non-duality (must be all the meditation).

Megan Rapinoe

Wolrdconnector nickname: “The Most Vocal & Valuable Player”
Network type: Gradual Grower
Platform of choice: Instagram
📷
Rewind a few years. When you thought of women’s soccer, you probably didn’t think of politics. When you thought of the LGBTQ community, you probably didn’t think sports. And when you thought of the women’s national soccer team, you probably didn’t think about the next generation of boys idolizing them.
Megan Rapinoe makes you think again.
With her amazing performances on the big stage, her primetime personality, and her activism and irreverence off the field, she’s connected fans across genders and interest profiles. And her ambition and crossover of worlds now leads her into entrepreneurship - she is cofounder of re-inc., a gender-neutral lifestyle brand.

Action Bronson

Worldconnector nickname: “The Cultural Savant”
Network type: Fractal Flywheel
Platform of choice: SVOD
📷
This guy manages to be all over the map but makes perfect sense while doing it. When you zoom out, his profile seems a bit scattered, but zoom in and you’ll find the connections are pretty tight. You could spend a day with him (IRL or watching Viceland or on Instagram) flicking through vintage records, watching 1980’s action flicks, talking early aughts Yankees, or debating the nuances of truffle species and natural wines. Each one of his interests feeds the next and his audience flywheel picks up speed accordingly.

Worldconnectors are entrepreneurs of the intersection, and intersections are the new mainstream

Whereas Worldbuilders bend the world toward their vision through impeccable planning and execution, Worldconnectors deftly navigate opportunities with a sort of finely tuned echolocation. They send out signals, detect where there’s most resonance, and apply their most compatible talent or knowledge to thrive in those spaces, at least for a while.
Those spaces tend to be cultural intersections: where hippie meets hypebeast, where Michelin stars meet psychoactive plants, where mindfulness meets tech. Conscious or not, the Worldconnector approach is basically a whitespace strategy:
The mainstream, as we knew it, is gone. That old mainstream, reliant on the mass media model, was killed by the internet. In the new mainstream, we invest much of our attention along the long tail and check back in with the masses when something compelling enough forms a new homepage for the culture. It’s a combinatorial mainstream now, and it seems to shatter almost weekly, then reform with a new mix of components. Algorithms surface deep cuts or pop-adjacent stuff that feels made just for us, and only steer us back toward the Consensus Content™ when there are enough signals that a thing is reaching a critical mass of interest.
A version of the new mainstream might look something like this:
📷📷
Or it might feel like this: surf.city
In this mainstream, we enjoy more freedom and fluidity in our consumption identities. Demographics don’t dictate behaviors and tastes anywhere near as much as they used to.
In the old model, saturation was achievable. With the right exposure and enough media spend, one could penetrate a very high percentage of the mainstream. Set a crude plan to reach American women 25-44 and, voila, you’d probably get your money’s worth. But the center could not hold. Now, any given piece of content, cultural event, or celebrity might register with multiple sub-communities - but it’s highly unlikely to capture a majority of public awareness.
📷
With mass media corroding and audience fragmentation on the rise, the Worldconnector is a force for coherence. They save niche communities from becoming islands and show the rest of us how certain stuff on the fringes is actually hyper-relevant to “the now.” While Worldbuilders and Shotcallers predict the future, Worldconnectors consolidate the present.
How? By reaching people directly and immediately. New media trends make this possible (and scalable).

Worldconnectors force us to rethink influence

Worldconnectors don’t necessarily set out to build. They set out to think, to create art or synthesize information, to infect others with ideas and feelings. They are highly generative and prolific. But their power is not a matter of top-down impact; they don’t make things go viral at will. Worldconnectors are experts at setting the conditions for organic virality.
Studying Worldconnectors can help shake us free from the lazy assumption that follower counts and impressions = influence. We like these metrics because they are a short cut, an abstraction from the living, breathing, sometimes very messy network that underlies any system where people are involved. But - as the Worldconnector shows us - we’re glazing over a lot of sociological and mathematical meaning by being so obsessed with pure reach.
A quick look at social network analysis and graph theory. Here, Worldconnectors are unique, highly valuable nodes in a network.
📷
Earlier, we looked at the qualities that make a Worldconnector. What’s cool is that Worldconnectedness is actually measurable, through quantities like density and centrality:
A Worldconnector is super well-connected
A Worldconnector is highly interactive
Consider high density and centrality combined with unwavering authenticity and advanced zeitgeist synthesis, and you can start to sense how much magnetism and leverage a Worldconnector has.
Literal thinking might lead you to apply Worldconnector concepts to influencer strategy. But I find it more interesting to use Worldconnector thinking as a mental model to help solve problems around growth, scaling, and branding. How could you transpose Worldconnector qualities from a person to the brand you’re building?
📷
When you boil it all down, what are Worldconnectors really good at? Closing the chasm. In the new, combinatorial mainstream, someone’s gotta help us connect the dots, and fast.
Honorable mention. Other potential Worldconnectors who came up while brainstorming (in no particular order). Who would be on your list?
Packy again. Who’d we miss? Throw your Worldconnectors in the comments.
Link to original post: https://notboring.substack.com/p/worldconnectors-and-the-new-mainstream
submitted by packym to JohnMayer [link] [comments]

Ultimate Guide for Online Sports Betting OFA168

Sports betting is beginning to go mainstream also. The thing that was mentioned using a wink and a nod would be currently discussed publicly. There are shows on major sporting programs that pay to wager daily. It’s really a boom time for sports bettors, and also the playing field is still open for those who are not used to the match.
Retail sportsbooks and gambling apps are still established in legalized countries. Because of this, gaming lovers have lots of legal on the web and portable sportsbook options. Online sports betting sounds somewhat complicated at first, but it is going to feel a whole lot less foreign when you get some experience.
This guide intends to help decrease your learning curve tremendously. Let us start out with the basic principles.
Bettors try to predict the outcomes and create their very best bet on which the result is. Bettors an average of a bet with a sportsbook. Odds-makers at the assorted novels will put lines or chances for its readily available wagers.
Essentially, chances clearly show the chances of a certain event occurring. Additionally, they indicate the potential yield for all those that gamble successfully. Sportsbook provides a vast selection of markets. From leading sports like NFL gambling along with NBA gambling to niche offerings like cricket along with rugby, you will discover lots of wagering opportunities out there. The very same applies in regards to betting types.
The most ordinary bet simply entails selecting a winning side. But, you will find lots of different means to bet and facets to think about. Sports betting is a popular pastime that’s bringing more attention thanks to legalization in several markets.
You are brand new to sports gambling and prepared to begin. Now what?
Beginning any new undertaking might be overwhelming initially, but a lot of times you’ll find it isn’t really that tough once you start grinding. That is true with sports gambling. Much like many other scenarios, it is ideal, to begin with, the fundamentals and builds from there:
Advantages of sports-betting: Sports gambling has ever turned into a blessing for every one of those countries that have ever entered. A clinic that has been illegal has become generating additional tax revenue. What’s more, occupations are and continue to be established in each new industry.
Steps to Start Betting on Sports: it may not be much easier to begin gambling on sports betting. Most operators are working out the legal niches, and enrolling in an account using them is just a snap. From that point, you are able to remove and add funds from the accounts easily and start researching chances.
The Mechanics of sports-betting: Among the coolest things concerning sports gambling is that you’re able to get as complex as you prefer at your own pace. It is possible to keep it simple and follow the fundamentals or dip in with both feet to boost your level of skill from the beginning. That is ultimately your decision personally; also there isn’t any wrong or right strategy. It boils down to a question of what is most effective for you personally.
Knowing the chances: that really is a place that could confuse those brand new to the match. A brief, chances inform one of that the suggested probabilities and possible yield for powerful wagers. For a simplified case, negative chances imply a well-liked and less yield potential. While favorable chances point out an underdog and also the capacity for larger yields.
For every one of those categories, there exists a ton more to comprehend proceeding forward. As you progress, you’re able to research issues, like chances, in a great deal more detail. Provided that those foreign notions will develop into something that you know well.
Sports betting can be exceedingly enjoyable, and additionally, there is the opportunity to earn a profit whilst doing whatever you like. That is clearly a win-win scenario, however, additionally, it is critical to get into it using a transparent mind.
Almost always there is the prospect of hitting a significant parlay you are likely to have rich using overnight. A sports betting is hard and maybe quite a grind, but that is also part of this allure. Begin sports gambling using realistic expectations sufficient reason for a laser-like give attention to being more disciplined. For all those not used to the match, you need to think about the money you’re wagering as a portion of one’s entertainment budget.
Just bet what you’re comfortable gambling and do not exceed this amount. There’ll be a lot of time and energy to enlarge your bets as your skills improve; therefore there is no requirement to dash it as long as you are learning. Last but most certainly not least, bear in mind this is something which you ought to discover entertaining and fun. In case it stops sense like this — or in case you struck on the inevitable losing series — you shouldn’t be reluctant to simply take a rest. Having a step backward and forth representing somewhat will permit you to tweak your approach and plan where required. Obtaining a breather and obtaining additional view might cause one to feel rejuvenated if you are prepared to play.
Sportsbook operators are for-profit entities. Therefore, they are not only providing a gambling market place out from the goodness in the hearts. The target for these may be exactly the very same as you: to earn money. Novels that do not accomplish that goal won’t be around as long. Odds-makers who always have a beating will gradually be trying to find a fresh field of work. Nevertheless, the overwhelming bulk of operators that are established are excellent at what they’re doing.
They turn into a profit as an outcome. Therefore, just how do they accomplish so? Sports-books earn money by the commissions that they collect for shooting action on stakes. That can be known as the vig or even juice. Let us consider a good illustration working with a normal group of point spread odds of -110.
In case your bet is more correct, you are going to reunite 0.90, and that’s the own 0% bet and a benefit of .90. So just why not double your funds? That is since the bookmaker has essentially maintained a proportion of their yield for themselves. Additionally, think that the operator can also be taking bets on each side of the equation.
In an ideal environment, they’ll receive even actions on each side. 1 / 2 of those stakes will likely triumph, as the spouse will probably soon lose. The internet of the things they collect, no matter what they cover out, reflects profit. Obviously, maybe not all of the stakes will bring even actions, which explains the reason you are going to observe chances move once they have been published. In case the book maker’s accountability using a single side of a result gets too great, they’ll create the likelihood a little more positive on the opposite hand to draw in more activity.
Mistakes Need to Avoid
Whenever you’re beginning with something brand new, it’s vital to see that there is going to soon be a learning curve. Mistakes will occur on the way, however, you are able to study on everyone and boost your general knowledge base.
If it comes to sports gambling, you are likely to make mistakes. You’ll miss something which appears obvious on your handicapping ahead of this match. Or you can set a bet on chances that unexpectedly turn into far more positive on the negative you’re leaning. It’s going to occur, and there is absolutely no solution to protect against every mistake. But, you’ll be able to prevent many big pitfalls which might create your sports gaming profession shortlived.
Do Not Chase Your Losses: You are likely to drop a few stakes. Any sports bettor who lets you know to win all of the time is not really being honest. When reductions happen, analyze the reason why suck it up and then proceed. Don’t make an effort to “get “ by Slimming down since you are “because of a win” Which is an instant recipe for tragedy.
Do not Bet On your mind: It is critical to own a crystal clear funding in mind for their own sports gambling console. Simply deposit that which you could manage to reduce, and also withstand the desire to go ahead when things are not moving away. If your long term budget has been gone, then simply take that as a chance to have a rest and return back into it having a transparent head.
Do not Be Unrealistic or over-estimate Your Skills: From nature, most sports fans are enthusiastic. Some people may take this for the extreme and feel as though they’re always right and therefore are not able to create a lot of money gambling. You shouldn’t be this guy or woman. Understand that you are going to have work to accomplish aside from your sports consciousness grade, and keep your profit aims reasonable.
Sports gambling can be considered a wonderful source of entertainment and also a potentially rewarding enterprise. Nevertheless, the probability of happening increases whenever you stop the aforementioned advantages.
submitted by ofagames to u/ofagames [link] [comments]

Closing Line Value Pt 2

TL;DR: CLV can be a useful alternative measurement for performance, but is ultimately a flawed metric
Purpose of CLV
The primary purpose of CLV is an alternative measurement of performance. The theory is that if you’re getting enough CLV to cover the vig, you should be a winner in the long term. Many “pros” claim that it's best to benchmark performance based on CLV rather than actual outcomes. Sportsbooks can also use it as a measurement to assess whether a sports bettor is a “sharp” or a “square”, sometimes limiting or even outright banning bettors who consistently beat CLV. This assertion relies heavily on the efficient market hypothesis.
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Without giving you a financial theory history lesson, very simply the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that the price of an asset reflects all known information and that consistent alpha generation is impossible. Sports betting translation: the only way to bet profitably is to generate CLV and it’s impossible to generate +EV if you only bet right before the game starts. If you bet the Closing Line you should expect to lose an amount equal to the vig in the long-term.
Quite simply – this is bullshit.
Various forms of EMH may apply to liquid financial markets, but I’m going to make the argument that while CLV is useful, the Closing Line is far from efficient.
Is the Market Efficient?
Market efficiency is often characterized as having the following attributes:
1. Immediate absorption of new information
2. Important information is freely available to all participants
3. A large number of rational, profit maximizing market participants
Let’s review these assertions one-by-one.
1. Immediate Absorption of New Information
In an efficient market, the only thing that moves the price of an asset is new information. If this were true, we should be able to identify long periods of static lines, as no new information has been revealed.
Let’s check out a recent example of how reactive the markets are to new information:
On January 11, 2020 the OKC Thunder hosted the LA Lakers. Around 1:30pm ET, news broke that LeBron would miss the game. Naturally, that injury announcement had a large impact on the odds for both teams. A time series plot of the Thunder’s breakeven win probability is shown below.
Time Series of an OKC LAL game win probability
The lines almost immediately improved the Thunder’s breakeven win % from ~50% to ~65%. Without giving a chance for the lines to reach a new equilibrium, another bombshell was dropped at 1:54pm ET: Anthony Davis was questionable. The lines continued to move in the Thunder’s direction for the next hour or so before seemingly reaching an equilibrium a little after 3pm ET.
When it was finally announced that AD was downgraded to Out around 45 minutes before tip, the line began to further trend toward OKC.
So how should we judge these movements? Did the market immediately factor in new information?
Although the market reacted fairly well, there was still some opportunity to get a bet in before the market reached a new equilibrium, particularly with regard to the AD news. I would say that the market may not have fully reacted immediately, but this isn’t enough evidence to disprove the EMH.
We are 0 for 1.
2. Important Information is Freely Available to All Participants
Does everyone have access to the same information? Certainly not everyone would agree with me, but I generally believe that most sports information is freely available these days. The barrier to information is lower than it’s ever been. People use information in different ways, to give them certain edges, but I don’t think that information asymmetry is a reason to disprove EMH.
We are now 0 for 2...
3. A Large Number of Rational, Profit Maximizing Market Participants
I think we can all agree that the drunk guy parlaying the Gatorade color and coin flip at the Super Bowl might not be rational or profit maximizing.
And judging by a few Reddit comments there are plenty of sports bettors who aren’t strictly profit maximizers (please if this is any of you, please don't feel personally attacked):
“I'm not going to be dealing with 7 different bookies just to raise my ROI by .1 or .5 or even 1%.”
“I tend to gamble more when I’m bored”
“I was drunk and wanted to bet so I threw down 5 units on an Australian women's basketball game on a blind tip from the Nitrogen chat room.”
The vast majority of sports bettors aren’t profit maximizers, but utility maximizers. Sports betting offers a form of exhilaration and entertainment that can’t be found in other places. A lot of that excitement manifests itself in poor-EV-yet-thrilling wagers (such as parlays, teasers and futures) that sportsbooks happily offer you.
Just how much are non-profit maximizing behaviors costing sports bettors? To answer that, let’s take a peak at the Nevada’s annual sports betting report. In 2019, sportsbooks in Nevada took $5.3 billion in wagers and held $329 million, representing a hold of 6.2%. Previously we discussed how standard -110 odds gave sportsbooks a hold of 4.5%, which we could chisel away at pretty easily with some basic line shopping. Thus, if market participants we’re truly profit maximizers, we’d expect a hold significantly less than 6.2%.
OK – so finally we have some evidence that the EMH might not hold. Let’s see if we can test it with some data.
Testing Weak Form Efficiency
The three forms of market efficiency are Strong Form, Semi-Strong Form, and Weak Form. The Strong Form assumes that all information (private and public) is baked into the market. The Semi-Strong Form assumes that all public information is baked into the market price of an asset. The Weak Form states that historical prices cannot be used to predict future prices.
If we can prove that the weakest form of the EMH can be disproved, we can disregard the EMH.
Straight from Morningstar:
“The weak form of EMH assumes that current stock prices fully reflect all currently available security market information. It contends that past price and volume data have no relationship with the future direction of security prices. It concludes that excess returns cannot be achieved using technical analysis.”
MLB Moneyline Movements
Let’s go ahead and use MLB ML data from the 2015-2018 seasons to see if we can predict the direction of the closing line, and therefore generate theoretical value (CLV) by beating the closing line.
We gathered the Closing Line as well as the line 2-hours to close[1] (T-2) to see if we can recognize any patterns. We can then test the statistical significance of those patterns to give us a sense of whether they have any merit.
The traditional school of thought is that if you’re betting favorites, it’s best to bet them early. If a dog, wait until close to gametime. Does this hold merit?
The first thing we can do is test the average deviation of prices from a 50/50 probability. Closing Lines had an average deviation of 44 cents, while T-2 had an average deviation of 42 cents over 9,813 games in our sample. If we look at the distribution, we see that there are more games with an average deviation greater of 100 or more at close than at T-2.
Average Deviation
Yes, the curves look similar. But if we focus on the difference between the two, we can identify a more significant pattern.
Difference Between Close and T-2
What the above shows is that there are more “close” games at T-2 and more “mismatches” at Close. Huh? How can that be?
Answer: lines must move toward the favorite from T-2 to Close.
Let’s dive a little further and focus on games that have a significant favorite.
We pulled out games that have an underdog of +180 or greater at T-2. In total we had 1,208 games. Of those 1,208 games, 657 (54%) had line movement toward the favorite, 404 (33%) had line movement toward the underdog, and 147(12%) did not have any movement. The average movement of the favorite was -3.4 cents, from -224.0 to -227.2.
Visually, we can look at the distributions of movement below.
Line Movement Distribution
Clearly, the data suggests a movement toward the favorites in the last two hours, suggesting that we can capture positive CLV simply by betting favorites 2 hours prior to first pitch. This “strategy” violates weak form EMH, which states that past prices have no relationship with future price movements.
If this isn’t enough evidence to disregard the EMH, I pose you this: are the MLB markets systemically mispricing favorites two hours prior to first pitch, only to correct this mispricing from T-2 to Close?
I find it hard to believe.
Optimizing for CLV vs Optimizing for Profit
The evidence above provided a theoretically argument why the EHM can be largely disregarded and therefore CLV should not be the target that bettors are optimizing for.
A more practical reason why CLV should not be the target: because CLV is fairly simple to measure, it is the primary way that sportsbooks designate who is sharp and who is square. With so many sportsbooks practicing the strategy of limiting or banning sharp bettors, it’s probably not ideal to optimize for a strategy that 1) rests heavily on the assumption of an efficient market and 2) firmly puts you on the radar of sportsbooks.
[1] This is the line available two-hours prior to first pitch.
submitted by cleatstreet to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Sam Harris: Worldconnector

(If you’d prefer to listen to my sweet voice instead of reading, check out the audio edition here.)
Several weeks ago I read a piece from Packy McCormick’s great newsletter, Not Boring, in which he wrote, “There are two ways to predict the future: you can call it or you can build it.” He smartly outlined two archetypes of leadership and entrepreneurship: Shotcallers versus Worldbuilders.
To paraphrase Packy:
Muhammad Ali was a Shotcaller; he announced he would knock you out, and then he did. Jeff Bezos is a Worldbuilder; he recognized the massive opportunity in eCommerce, started with books as the “first best product” to sell online, and then ruthlessly executed on his vision until he parlayed a bookstore into an empire of video streaming, grocery stores, cloud computing, and more.
In his essay, Packy crowns the Worldbuilder as the better archetype, particularly in the context of consumer tech. I loved the framework and it got me thinking: who would be on my Worldbuilder list? I started to jot down some names and added examples throughout the week as they popped in my head. When I scanned my list a couple of days later, though, I realized most of them didn’t really fit the Worldbuilder profile, but represented some other persona. I DM’d Packy.
“What do you think about the idea of Worldconnectors?”
“Write it,” he said. Here we are.
I’m introducing Worldconnectors not in opposition to Shotcallers or Worldbuilders, but as another archetype for consideration.
Why should we care? Where the Worldbuilder accomplishes feats of ambition and engineering, the Worldconnector is a master of authenticity and connection. They find a way to say and create what they want, preserve their independence while doing it, and prosper along the way. I believe that’s important for the culture and society, important for business, important for our wellbeing. And it’s important we see how all of those things are connected too.
Ok, let’s introduce a Worldconnector. Our first example is...John Mayer.
Let me explain. Maybe you love his music, maybe you loathe it. Maybe he frustrates you because he’s a guitar virtuoso who makes straightforward pop tunes. I know people with very strong Mayer emotions. The dude can be polarizing. But it’s undeniable that he possesses a type of genius.
Let’s break it down:
Mayer has Millennial fans who grew up with him, he has Gen Z fans who love his music and his collaborations with emerging pop artists, and he’s got their parents, late Gen X Dead Heads who’ve totally embraced his unlikely role in Dead & Company. The guy who wrote “Your Body is a Wonderland” is now welcomed by the jam band faithful as Jerry Garcia’s successor. That, my friends, is reaching across the aisle.
He collects vintage timepieces and is an authority among the watch-obsessed community. He’s a stealth fashion influencer, suffusing personal style through all of his projects and appearances. He is both a connoisseur of classics and a notorious hypebeast. As my friend @euko noted, the web gets more interesting the further you follow each thread: “Even his fashion interest alone connects him to everything from japanese forms to blockbuster movies. Mayer loves Acronym, a technical apparel brand inspired by functionality and martial arts, whose founder designs pieces for the Fast and the Furious franchise as well as Death Stranding, one of the biggest video games of the last year.”
Mayer is bros with Dave Chapelle and tours with him, performing hybrid concerts and comedy shows. And one of his best friends is Andy Cohen, the maestro of Bravo, which is extremely on-brand as far as friendships go, given Mayer’s lengthy history of tabloid exploits and celebrity drama.
As he settles into his own brand of maturity, Mayer’s most intriguing quality is ambiguity. He has one foot cemented in gossipy, plasticized mainstream culture, while another dances in and out of various niches, most notably the cult of “The Dead,” whose dancing bears and stealie skull are some of the strongest symbols of counterculture in American history. There are four generational cohorts who care about John Mayer. He’s a kind of portal from Gen Z back to the ‘60s, a link from the acid tests to Insta stories.
All of this coalesces in his homespun variety show on Instagram, “Current Mood.” I think it’s one of the most interesting new media projects of the last couple years.
📷
There are a lot of Mayer data points here. Let’s visualize it:

John Mayer

Wolrdconnector nickname: “The Celeb Everyman”
Network type: Sparse Clustering
Platform of choice: Instagram
📷

What makes a Worldconnector?

Now, let’s look at some other examples.

Sam Harris

Worldconnector nickname: “The mind guide”
Network type: Vertical Integration
Platform of choice: Podcasting
📷
Working from a background in neuroscience, Harris branches into various intellectual pursuits and commercial projects that all tie back to theory of mind. He publishes books, talks at events, hosts a podcast, and created the Waking Up App. He’s a member of the “Intellectual Dark Web” but speaks to a growing audience of 1.3M Twitter followers right out in the open. In any venue, he can go into politics or spirituality or tech, and it all feels integrated and authentic. For a guy that seems to be in many places all at once, he’s a master of non-duality (must be all the meditation).

Megan Rapinoe

Wolrdconnector nickname: “The Most Vocal & Valuable Player”
Network type: Gradual Grower
Platform of choice: Instagram
📷
Rewind a few years. When you thought of women’s soccer, you probably didn’t think of politics. When you thought of the LGBTQ community, you probably didn’t think sports. And when you thought of the women’s national soccer team, you probably didn’t think about the next generation of boys idolizing them.
Megan Rapinoe makes you think again.
With her amazing performances on the big stage, her primetime personality, and her activism and irreverence off the field, she’s connected fans across genders and interest profiles. And her ambition and crossover of worlds now leads her into entrepreneurship - she is cofounder of re-inc., a gender-neutral lifestyle brand.

Action Bronson

Worldconnector nickname: “The Cultural Savant”
Network type: Fractal Flywheel
Platform of choice: SVOD
📷
This guy manages to be all over the map but makes perfect sense while doing it. When you zoom out, his profile seems a bit scattered, but zoom in and you’ll find the connections are pretty tight. You could spend a day with him (IRL or watching Viceland or on Instagram) flicking through vintage records, watching 1980’s action flicks, talking early aughts Yankees, or debating the nuances of truffle species and natural wines. Each one of his interests feeds the next and his audience flywheel picks up speed accordingly.

Worldconnectors are entrepreneurs of the intersection, and intersections are the new mainstream

Whereas Worldbuilders bend the world toward their vision through impeccable planning and execution, Worldconnectors deftly navigate opportunities with a sort of finely tuned echolocation. They send out signals, detect where there’s most resonance, and apply their most compatible talent or knowledge to thrive in those spaces, at least for a while.
Those spaces tend to be cultural intersections: where hippie meets hypebeast, where Michelin stars meet psychoactive plants, where mindfulness meets tech. Conscious or not, the Worldconnector approach is basically a whitespace strategy:
The mainstream, as we knew it, is gone. That old mainstream, reliant on the mass media model, was killed by the internet. In the new mainstream, we invest much of our attention along the long tail and check back in with the masses when something compelling enough forms a new homepage for the culture. It’s a combinatorial mainstream now, and it seems to shatter almost weekly, then reform with a new mix of components. Algorithms surface deep cuts or pop-adjacent stuff that feels made just for us, and only steer us back toward the Consensus Content™ when there are enough signals that a thing is reaching a critical mass of interest.
A version of the new mainstream might look something like this:
📷📷
Or it might feel like this: surf.city
In this mainstream, we enjoy more freedom and fluidity in our consumption identities. Demographics don’t dictate behaviors and tastes anywhere near as much as they used to.
In the old model, saturation was achievable. With the right exposure and enough media spend, one could penetrate a very high percentage of the mainstream. Set a crude plan to reach American women 25-44 and, voila, you’d probably get your money’s worth. But the center could not hold. Now, any given piece of content, cultural event, or celebrity might register with multiple sub-communities - but it’s highly unlikely to capture a majority of public awareness.
📷
With mass media corroding and audience fragmentation on the rise, the Worldconnector is a force for coherence. They save niche communities from becoming islands and show the rest of us how certain stuff on the fringes is actually hyper-relevant to “the now.” While Worldbuilders and Shotcallers predict the future, Worldconnectors consolidate the present.
How? By reaching people directly and immediately. New media trends make this possible (and scalable).

Worldconnectors force us to rethink influence

Worldconnectors don’t necessarily set out to build. They set out to think, to create art or synthesize information, to infect others with ideas and feelings. They are highly generative and prolific. But their power is not a matter of top-down impact; they don’t make things go viral at will. Worldconnectors are experts at setting the conditions for organic virality.
Studying Worldconnectors can help shake us free from the lazy assumption that follower counts and impressions = influence. We like these metrics because they are a short cut, an abstraction from the living, breathing, sometimes very messy network that underlies any system where people are involved. But - as the Worldconnector shows us - we’re glazing over a lot of sociological and mathematical meaning by being so obsessed with pure reach.
A quick look at social network analysis and graph theory. Here, Worldconnectors are unique, highly valuable nodes in a network.
📷
Earlier, we looked at the qualities that make a Worldconnector. What’s cool is that Worldconnectedness is actually measurable, through quantities like density and centrality:
A Worldconnector is super well-connected
A Worldconnector is highly interactive
Consider high density and centrality combined with unwavering authenticity and advanced zeitgeist synthesis, and you can start to sense how much magnetism and leverage a Worldconnector has.
Literal thinking might lead you to apply Worldconnector concepts to influencer strategy. But I find it more interesting to use Worldconnector thinking as a mental model to help solve problems around growth, scaling, and branding. How could you transpose Worldconnector qualities from a person to the brand you’re building?
📷
When you boil it all down, what are Worldconnectors really good at? Closing the chasm. In the new, combinatorial mainstream, someone’s gotta help us connect the dots, and fast.
Huge thanks to Packy for featuring this piece, I hope it was on brand (Not Boring). And thank you to Paige Geffen, Eugene Ko, and Adam Saewitz for helping to sharpen some of the thinking here.
Honorable mention. Other potential Worldconnectors who came up while brainstorming (in no particular order). Who would be on your list?
Packy again. Who’d we miss? Throw your Worldconnectors in the comments.
Link to post: https://notboring.substack.com/p/worldconnectors-and-the-new-mainstream
submitted by packym to samharris [link] [comments]

A bit bored, so I figure I’d type up some tips and advice you’ve probably all heard 100 times. If you’re new, these are the things I wish someone would have told me.

TL;DR at the bottom.
Disclaimer: I’m fairly new at sports betting, but I feel like I’ve learned a lot in a short time. I also don’t make huge bets. I like parlays, and usually bet NFL, NBA, College football only. I have $100 salary PER MONTH, and do this for entertainment. So take what I say with some grains of salt.
  1. The biggest thing I would suggest is to track your bets. All of them. I created a very basic spreadsheet. I enter where I made the bet, how much I put down, and the return. This has helped me control my spending IMMENSELY. Every bet has a visual consequence or reward. If you are wanting to set limits, you would do yourself a disservice to not keep track of each dollar that leaves your wallet. It may seem like “too much work” (what my friends told me), but it has some psychological advantages- at least for me.
  2. TRUST NO ONE BUT YOURSELF. Okay, that’s a bit intense, so let me clarify. We live in a time of information overload. Articles, “experts”, Twitter, etc. sure, they can help and you may make a profit from the advice you glean. However, there is nothing worse than taking blind advice and having it lose. I’m not perfect, I made this mistake today. I had a 5 leg parlay and a guy behind me in the long line said “UCF is a lock for first half -6 today.” I got to talking to him and he convinced me that it was a lock. I threw it in my parlay and hoped for the best. Well, they were down 21-10 at the half (and lost the game as I type this). I felt awful about it. It was a $5 parlay so I’m not complaining by any means, but it was dumb to walk up confidently with my picks and be persuaded by a stranger.
  3. If you sort this sub by “Top posts of all time” you will quickly find stories of people who has given up sports betting. The similarities are very interesting. Two things they have in common are: chasing losses, and poor bankroll management. Thankfully, I have yet to experience this but plan to learn from everyone else’s experiences so I don’t have to! I think there’s a lot of people who have good advice on “bankroll management”, but having some idea of how much you can spend over a period of time, or how much you are going to bet per game is a good start. With my monthly allowance I don’t do “units” as most would suggest. Rather, I have “limits”. I won’t do a parlay over a certain amount, and I won’t make straight bet over a certain amount. Some may say this isn’t a good strategy, but it’s better than no strategy.
Again, I’m far from an expert and I’m new myself. But these are the things I wish I would have committed to doing before making any bets!
TL;DR - Track your bets in some fashion, trust yourself and your gut, and have some commitment to a bankroll management strategy - whatever works for your lifestyle. Feel free to add your own tips or critique mine below.
submitted by dishragJan to sportsbook [link] [comments]

What Is The Purpose Of This Sub? An Introduction

What is the purpose of this sub? Putting money in your pocket.
I have created a system that accurately predicts the outcome of most MLB games, with the legalization of sports betting I feel as though this is a great opportunity not only to share the discovery but to help you.
To back up a bit, I stumbled across this system last summer while creating different DFS strategies, I was horrendous constantly never getting the right team stacks of which offense would go off. What I hadn’t realized was that I had created a system for predicting wins, not predicting runs. I tinkered with the system and have done so throughout the fall and winter testing on every single game day of 6 years of data. I can comfortably say that I have found a system that works.
 
What it will be:
So I cannot predict every single game, it is ludicrous to make that kind of statement but I can predict between 3 to upwards of 6 or 7 games depending on the slate size (rare). A few notes is that no, they are not all massive -500 favorites, the opposite actually with some underdogs and projected close games. I recommend that you parlay in order to maximize your earnings.
 
How it works:
There are trends, and I have found that two games of a starting pitcher is mostly place to look in order to project their 3rd game. I look at these stats: BABIP, B%, K%, O-Swing%, O-Contact%, Zone%, Zone-Contact% among a few other helpful and predictive stats that can be found on sites like Baseball Savant.
 
When can we start:
I need at minimum two games of data from starting pitchers, with the current 2 week delay of opening day I can only project at the moment that I can begin the picks on or about April 24.
 
What I want from you:
Nothing. Just patience. I don’t want your money or your thanks. I don’t want you to place a single bet until you feel comfortable in my picks. I will firmly say that the parlay win-rate will not be 90%, or 95% or 99% it will be 100% and the only way you can believe that is by waiting.
 
Why am I doing this:
I don’t think it is right watching hacks get paid money to throw around picks and only hit on 40-60% of them. Nor do I think it’s right to watch people who need some money or may have a gambling problem be roped in by charlatans with bogus picks only to disappear and leave the bettor empty handed. But my purpose is deeper than that, the average American makes 59k a year with 47k in various debts. The sports betting industry made approximately 1.2 Trillion in revenue last year while only having to pay roughly 13% in taxes, which is the same as a person in America who makes between 9700 and 39k a year. There’s a pandemic going on, along with the beginning of a possible global recession which has/will cause many people to lose value in their 401k and retirement plans. People will more than likely be laid off in the oil industry as a result of the oil war between the Saudis and Russia. The last people who need over a trillion dollars with low taxes being paid back to the government or states are sportsbooks, with this subreddit we and our hopeful growing online community can create profit to not only help ourselves but our families and more than anything our communities. I don’t believe that greed is good but I do believe the more money that is in our hands as ordinary people around the world, the better the likelihood of us doing good. Call me naive but that’s what I sincerely believe.
 
If you have any questions at all feel free to PM me
Please don’t exploit the information given on the sub, do better not worse.
 
Good luck.
R
submitted by TopDownChamp to ScreamingKGJ [link] [comments]

Betting Sites › Best Online Betting Sites in India (Feb 2020)

Internet wagering is at present legitimate in practically all over India. These wagering destinations offer an assortment of sports to draw in players of India to exploit a few extraordinary offers and great returns. Wagering is progressively respected in India. With an ever increasing number of internet wagering destinations hoping to take advantage of the gainful Indian market, it very well may be trying to pick between them. We should investigate how to locate the best wagering destinations.
1-Betway
Betway is one of the most well known destinations. Betway is offering a thorough and monstrous scope of sports and markets. Additionally, their advancements and prizes for existing client continue moving week to week. They don't stop here. Betway incorporates probably the most exciting gambling club games, and they offer top quality rewards and store strategies which suits you.
2-Guts
The guts site is reasonable for live wagering. Guts begin working in 2013, and it was at first planned towards gambling club and gaming. In any case, inside a year they propelled their online sportsbook for clients. Guts sportsbook was fundamentally about football. Yet, presently they are offering a lot of significant games like football, tennis and cricket. You can guarantee their welcome reward by experiencing the prize area, and you can likewise recover your cash a sportsbook reward.
3-Ladbrokes
Ladbrokes is one of the notable high road name from British wagering history. They began their tasks in 18 century and their organizer Harry Ogden is perceived at the UK's first expert bookmaker. They began their web based wagering in 2000. You can get extraordinary North America sports inclusion alongside everything from Aussies Rules to Chess, Golf, MMA, Volleyball and pretty much everything in the middle of, just as pony dashing.
4-Moplay
Moplay is an online bookmaker which is concentrating on the portable parts of betting. Moplay started working in 2018. Pre-organize markets were in abundance additionally in examining around at different games like football, tennis and cricket. They do offer moment money out on sure decisions.
5-Boylesports
Boylesports is one of the solid free bookmaker brand subsidized in 1989 in Ireland. They have a major web business just as web based wagering administration. The edge is to some degree higher on soccer, around 6% yet the rest of the sportsbook is trading with a great deal of lower betting edge, particularly tennis which is essentially roughly 3.1%.
6-Sportingbet
Sportingbet started working in 1998. They have presented their administrations across 26 nations around the world. Sportingbet is clear in working since they are offering straight forward wagering administration for their clients.
7-Fortuna
It is an online bookmaker that underpins client showcase from India. This bookmaker permits secure route framework for better client experience for its clients. This site is an enrolled one, so it is ok for bettors to play their chances helpfully. They offer an assortment of choices like live wagering, club games betting and chances wagering. In any case, the new clients are given with 100% reward on making their first store.
8-William Hill
It is a notable brand far and wide. William slope was established in 1934. They have a fabulous inclusion of live football matches and different games. Their bet slip is splendid as well, allowing you full usefulness in controlling your wagering alternatives. You can make installment and withdrawal through various techniques.
9-Betvictor
Betvictor began its capacities during the 1940s. Through quality organizations, they have grown an enormous nearness in the online business. Betvictor isn't constrained to sports wagering, and they are likewise running some non-sports markets. They have entirely broad sportsbook which incorporates rugby, snooker, volleyball, cricket and darts.
10-22bet
22bet was set up in2017. Their sportsbook is an incredible fascination towards clients. Football, cricket, golf and tennis are the principle zones to take a gander at. 22bet is exceptionally liberal when discussing welcome rewards. Their clients must be 18+ to enroll themselves.
11-Paddy Power
Paddy Power is one of the most famous brands which is perceived all around the globe. They began their administrations in 1988 when three Irish bookmakers met up. There is a gigantic mean acknowledge in the Paddy Power sportsbook.
12-Unibet
Unibet is one of the well known brands in Europe and India. It was established in 1997. Their sportsbook spread tennis, football, b-ball just as chess, futsal, floor ball, bandy and surfing. They likewise offer a cash back reward for new clients. They offer a gigantic scope of wagering markets.
Unibet is probably the most seasoned game bookmaker around the world, set up in 1997, serving a large number of web based wagering account holders. It is notable all over Europe for its superb games wagering, online gambling club and poker stages.
13-Betfred
Betfred is a British bookmaker. They offer their administrations for India also. Betting power licenses them. The Betfred Empire starts working in 1967. They are offering a noteworthy edge on football wagering. You can either utilize their versatile application or site to make the most of their administrations.
14-888sport
It is an European based wagering stage which acknowledges the clients of India also. It is one of the perceived brands in odd markets. They are covering numerous games like rugby, soccer, cricket, tennis, horse dashing golf, boxing cycling and numerous others. You can make the most of their liberal invite offers.
15-Coral
When discussing Indian bookmakers, Coral is among the primary names you can consider. Coral was established during the 1920s, and it is one of the most well known brands when talking about excellent items and offers. They show top European nearby soccer with stunning highlights. Numerous different games have been presented, including football classes.
16-Royal Panda
Illustrious Panda is a worldwide stage which is offering their administrations all around India. They are advancing on the web gambling clubs, not the sportsbook. You can utilize their versatile application and site to make the most of their inventive rewards. It is one of the strictest betting locales. They are offering a wide scope of wagering markets. They are covering circuitous 40 games and a lot of classes.
17-Smarkets
Smarkets is an online stage which was established by a little gathering of speculator. They are acclaimed for their propelled exchanging stage and 25th quickest developed organization in Europe. Smarkets is exceptionally simple to utilize. They are sans offering wagers for their new clients and welcome rewards. Their essential center is noteworthy games like football tennis, golf, baseball and cricket.
18-Leovegas
It gives a gigantic portable wagering experience. Leovegas assumes an indispensable job in Indian wagering site. As we enter the landing page of Leovegas India, the primary thing we see slider is a slider in the focal point of the screen, publicizing for the most well known games and advancements here on Leovegas. Leovegas offers a clean and userfriendly stage.
19-10cric
As an ever increasing number of wagering locales are beginning to focus on the imperative Indian market, it is turning into somewhat hard for players to choose which spot is most appropriate for them. One of the most common issues is by all accounts how to get to these sites
20-Bet365
Bet365 is celebrated for being one of the greatest and best-wagering locales on the planet. Be that as it may, what makes Bet365 great? That response to this inquiry is that Bet365 has taken the internet wagering industry to an uncommon new level. They give the best betting involvement with all territories. They have the most gigantic assortment of gambling club games and sports wagering. They offer the best portable wagering experience, the best reward on wagering and simply the most amazing live betting experience generally.
Be that as it may, the point which makes Bet365 the world's greatest wagering site is the notoriety for unwavering quality that they have worked for themselves in years. Bet365 is a wagering site you can trust. They generally pay what they owe, and they put incredible significance on their notoriety is the thing that makes Bet365 a genuinely extraordinary bookmaker.
21-Sportsbet.io
Sportsbet.io is a worldwide games wagering organization that was established by individuals with an energy for sports. When you enter the site of Sportsbet.io, you get the inclination that this whole site is committed to sports wagering. It doesn't have the equivalent lavish impression that you jump on an old wagering site like Unibet or Betway. It's more Spartan and old school.
Then again, this isn't really an awful thing. They don't attempt to push ads or advancements at all of you an opportunity to achieve client's consideration. It's an entirely reliable spot for individuals who simply need to put down wagers and not need to stress over something over the top.
22-Bodog
Bodog is an old wagering bookmaker really among the most seasoned on the planet which has as of late opened up and began tolerating Indians players.
They have set up the procedure of the wagering site principally to serve bettors from India, where they endeavor an assortment of live cricket wagering alternatives, give helpful choices of storing cash and permit Indian money.
On the off chance that you appreciate sports wagering and club games or poker sitting, at that point you will in all likelihood appreciate Bodog India.
Bodog begins from Europe, yet it has an Indian site that is customized to suit the flavor of Indian players. Consequently it is of nothing unexpected to discover that the Bodog India Sports wagering is wealthy in cricket wagering.
The sportsbook incorporates all the noteworthy universal cricket competitions and arrangement, just as the well known classes like the Indian Premier League and the huge slam group Australia.
23-1XBET
1XBET Bookmaker is a youthful and quickly developing wagering site. Established in 2007, earlier it worked distinctly in the region, with more than 1,000 wagering bookmakers in Russia, and later started the experience in the online market. 1XBET is viewed as the main global bookmaker, in India the genuine speculators know it for quite a while in light of the fact that he underpins Indian rupee (INR) and has a Hindi language Version.
1XBET is mainstream for Indian expert punters, yet before long will be known in each edge of India, for the straightforward reasons that its installments segment is adjustable. So you can pick INDIA (from the rundown of nations) and see the techniques for stores and pulls back are accessible, obviously, don't missing Neteller and skrill all simple and clear.
24-BET WINNER
On the off chance that you are searching for a bookmaker that gives the best chances on the most famous games, the Betwinner might be the wagering site you are searching for.
Wager victor is a moderately new wagering site, however they have just become famous as the spot to be with regards to finding the best chances.
Wager victor is a moderately ongoing theorist that start its tasks in 2016 in the wake of accomplishing an administration permit from (Curaçao eGaming) for working on the web. Betb2b.com fabricated this site, and it is a similar program that is adding to 1xBET (acclaimed administrator of Russia) since 2007.
25-COME ON
Regardless of whether it is their online club activity or their games extend, COMEON India perseveres freely from others, through their broad inclusion and activities. They spread 29 classes of sports and offer a few other elective markets. This sportsbook underpins practically all standard installment designs and gives an incredible reward to new clients.
When you join as a part, you get an invite reward, and you can pick the alternative for the prize that you like. You can store cash once you sign in to your record by essentially tapping on the decision of store. ComeOn India offers the accompanying choices to store your cash
MasterCard
Visa Card
Paysafe Card
Skrill
Neteller
MuchBetter and the sky is the limit from there
26-Pinnacle
This is something we appreciate prescribe when you are simply beginning on another game. Start by playing for no particular reason, and once you've seen that you can bring in cash at this game, at that point toss in some genuine and unique rupees.
Genuine wagering is a zenith with brilliant highlights and extraordinary advancements
At Pinnacle, we know about definitely what Indian players search for in an amazing on the web gambling club. That is the reason we've accumulated a breathtaking mix of the most reliable online gambling club clubs around. Additionally, determinations of incredible table games don't stop there and make your life agreeable and simple we likewise offer a colossal assortment of store strategies for Indians gambling club players.
27-MELBet
Our consideration is currently redirected to the focal point of the screen where we see an advancement slider. It is where Unibet features all the present advancements that they are running. They are very brave advancements going on, which we will investigate later. One thing we notice is that all the costs are named in euros.
Beside the live wagering segment, we notice a catch named "supertoto'", and we choose to look at it. It ends up being another uncommon capacity, which is truly remarkable when contrasted with Unibet. Supertoto is a basic method to put down a wager on sports. The objective is to wagered on the result of whatever number matches as could be expected under the circumstances. You can wager on a success, lose or draw.
28-Matchbook
Matchbook offers a total sportsbook with in excess of 40 distinct games classifications to bet on, including cricket, football, tennis, horse dashing and practically all the famous games, just as e-sports, expert wrestling and different less normal games. You have a decision of live wagering on each live match that is occurring right now, and numerous competitions can even be live-spilled with liberated from cost office. The main standard is that you include put down a wager inside the most recent 24 hours. That gives you full access to the live spilling capacity.
29-Betfair
Betfair is one of the world's biggest global online games wagering specialist co-ops. Betfair has more than 2,000 utilizes around the world. Betfair holds betting permit in Malta, Gibraltar Italy, Tasmania and the United States. Betfair is promising in conveying exclusive expectations of respectability and has ensured more than 40 Memoranda of Understanding with the administering groups of sports.
Betfair is the most significant wagering bookmaker on the planet, offering a wide scope of wagering items including exotics wagering markets and extraordinary games, huge poker networks, arcade games and a gambling club.
30-Dafabet
Something that make Dafabet one of a kind is that they were made to serve the Asian market. All things considered, we can see that they are doing a great deal to interest Asian players, and particularly Indian players. For instance, we realize that they acknowledge Indian cash stores. They additionally offer loads of well known Indian games, for example, cricket, tennis and kabaddi. As an Indian player, it is pleasant to feel like you are esteemed as a client. There is likewise a lot of European games and well known Asian games and gambling club games accessible.
31-Rizk
It is an energizing and one of a kind internet betting webpage having a place with the European island naming Malta. The site is special it might be said that it depends on a superhuman topic which is an uncommon thing we have seen on some other wagering site previously. This current bookmaker's appeal is a hero naming Captain Rizk, and his topic can be discovered everywhere throughout the site.
32-Meridian BET
Meridian Bet is a main worldwide supplier of on the web and land-based games wagering arrangements with 700+ wagering shops in 35 nations around four landmasses? Their most noteworthy accomplishment is the steady income development pace of 20% over the most recent three years. They likewise offer an every minute of every day client assistance by means of live talk, telephone, email or informal community.
33-SBOBET
Inside an incredibly solemn methodology towards security and visitor administration, SBOBET is a main web based gaming brand. They have won the Asian Operator of the year grant for 2009-10. SBOBET offers you a quick and secure player condition with prompt winning outcomes, fast installments and simple access to nonstop web based wagering.
34-Winamax
This webpage is among the world's biggest online poker rooms and sports wagering destinations offering phenomenal chances to its players. Its immense number of enlisted genuine cash players has surpassed 3,000,000. This site gives dependable gaming instruments to make poker protected and a good time for the players.
35-5DIMES
This site is known to be the highest quality level in internet gaming. It offers on the web and via telephone wagers for open parlays. Owning the business for over 15 years adds to unwavering quality. This site gives the player's cashback rewards, diminished juice wagers, free play remunerates and significantly more.
36-ADJARABET
Situated in Georgia, this organization is the main site in the nation. Players can play gambling club games on the web or entertain themselves with sports wagering at this bookmaker website.
37-Planetwin365
Planetwin365 is Europe's quickest developing wagering and gaming administrators. This site is working with a large number of subsidiary accomplices over the world. More than one million wagers are handled day by day, and it additionally supplies in excess of 1300 retail outlets. The brand planetwin 365 is claimed by the SKS365 gathering of organizations which holds online licenses alongside land-based licenses from seven nations in Europe.
38-Red Sport
Red game is a worldwide games betting organization. It started to include in sports sponsorship in 2010. This organization is among the first non-US online games wagering organizations working in the United States. It is additionally an individual from ESSA, which is the European wagering uprightness body.
39-Cloud wager
Cloud wager directs the wagering business through a chain of authorized shops that are situated in Ireland and the UK. It offers online games wagering, online club and poker, online bingo and numerous other web based games.
40-POKER SPORTS
Once in the past known as Party Bets, is presently possessed by one of the biggest poker locales on the net, Party Poker. Authorized from both Gibraltar and UK, the site offers a wide scope of sports and great client care. To stall out in, the site gives a broad scope of games. Customers are very much provided food for, and every single significant game occasions are secured. Football is the most mainstream and secured sport by a wide margin, as the site is an European confronting bookmaker.
41-SPORTSPESA
Sportspesa, a games news innovation, was established in 2014, offering web based games and lotteries. It is a games news innovation with around 500 workers and has put resources into the advancement of the nearby games groups and competitions in Tanzania and Kenya. It works in relationship with TGP in the UK.
42-NOVIBET
Claimed by Logflex MT constrained, NOVIBET.com is a completely enlisted web based betting site. Playing with Novibet isn't simply fun however is sheltered and secure on the grounds that it holds licenses from MGA, which make the site obliged to keep all customers assets in trust accounts. The site offers a dependable gaming strategy and is focused on limiting the unfavorable impacts of issue betting and is resolved to advance positive betting practices.
43-BETPAWA
Offering different sorts of bettings on numerous games from over the world, BETPAWA is the most present day and quick wagering site in Zambia. This site is a creative bookmaker that offers the most reduced value wagers. It leads a wide assortment of pre-coordinate and in-play wagers on football alongside different games like b-ball, tennis and so on. You can choose from an immense scope of wagers on the site and can likewise decide on live wagering.
44-MISLI
As a piece of Fold gadgets gaming and distributing, MISLI was established in 2009. This site is situated in Istanbul. MISLI is a participation based site which offers online games wagering and lotteries. This site offers wagers on an assortment of games, particularly supporting soccer. It likewise gives the clients to play the national lottery. This site as of now utilizes 36 innovations. MISLI.com has been positioned 12,027 among the worldwide sites dependent on the huge number of its month to month guests surpassing 4,115,485.
45-Sky BET
Sky wagering and gaming, a British based Canadian organization, has offered a wagering division as Sky Bet. It possesses 1,628 representatives and is evaluated sixth among the ten highest contenders. This organization is the world's driving internet gaming and wagering organization which has the most noteworthy number of clients than any other person. Lion's share of the tasks of Sky Bet are led from Leeds. They offer to wager through their site, phone or portable applications and so forth. AGCC licenses the organization. Sky Bet likewise had a TV channel on Sky Channel 864 which quit working on February 2012.
46-Bet SAFE
With regards to online club and wagering, and Bet Safe is a rumored name. This website is a bookmaker and online gambling club which was established in 2006 and is possessed by a notable Swedish organization. 400 fifty thousand clients profit the ideas from 100 distinct nations around the globe. The dependability and unwavering quality of the site are apparent by the tremendous number of clients it possesses. Wager Safe is an easy to understand site offering an enormous assortment of games and items. It gives an astounding client assistance program and its simple to store and pull back cash. This site gives its clients the best web based gaming experience.
47-1xBit
This site offer betting stage for Bitcoin and digital money was established in 2016. Wagers are offered day by day more than 1000 games. Live online club games and in excess of 3000 openings are likewise accessible. A selective element is that it gives its games too. All client accounts bolster numerous monetary forms, and it empowers the players to wager utilizing in excess of ten cryptographic forms of money. Clients are additionally offered an assortment of rewards. A 100% first store reward is the most extreme preferred position. A bug assists with multiplying and right away pull back the main store reserves. Client's perspectives recommend that their client care is dependable and accommodating. It is being seen as the best reserving site for crypto. It offers high chances to the players when contrasted with comparable sportsbooks.
48-Mozzart BET
Since 2000, Mozzart has been a specific piece of the gaming business. This organization offers around 10,000 chances day by day for around 500 games. As of late, Mozzart has led its ground activity with more than 900 retailer shops and has seen a high development rate in its online administrations. One ought to be over 18 to wager on the site Mozzartbet.com. BCLB has given the permit to the site. Live wagering on games is offered including football, ball, tennis and other critical occasions. You can observe live spilling of your preferred round and put down online wagers.
49-Boyle SPORT
Ireland biggest and free bookmaker is known as BoyleSports. They contribute in the online space by adding the top of the line applications to the google play store which offer web based wagering, club, gaming, wagering and lottery administrations. By 2004, they had 77 shops, and in 2006 they opened their 100th store.
50-BetChris
In 2019, BetChris declared to enter the United Kingdom retail advertise with the popular bookmaker Gilbert. The organization's activity was extended in Northern Ireland which made the nation Ireland's biggest retail bookmaker.
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PARLAY BETTING. The vast majority of the time, sports betting is about one outcome: you either pick one side to win or the other. If your team wins, you win your bet. Sports betting houses always have a wide offer of betting odds. Value of a bet Determining the value of a bet is an essential part of success in sports betting today. For example, the true odds of winning a three-team parlay when making point spread wagers are 7-1, while the payoff is only 6-1, and it gets worse as you bet more teams. The true odds of hitting a 10-team point parlay are 1,023-1, while the payoff is generally around 600-1, so a parlay bettor is at a big disadvantage. A parlay bet is a popular form of sports wagering most gamblers are familiar with. In case you’re not, this bet is rather easy to understand. A parlay is simply a combo bet where, rather than betting several teams individually, you group them into a single wager. Parlay Betting System - A Complete Guide. The parlay betting system is a progressive betting system that works by increasing your bet when you win. You do this by betting your winnings as well as the original betting unit. The goal of this system is to build a ‘pyramid’ of winnings.

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