Five winning tips for betting NBA basketball odds

[OC] The Chicago Bulls rebuild imploded again this year. How can they pick up the pieces and make it better next time?

As we continue to wait for real basketball to happen (or not?), it may be a good time to monitor teams that will definitely be missing out on all the playoff bubble hijinks.
Here's a look at the CHICAGO BULLS, with a special shoutout to true Bulls' fans like celsius_two_3_two for helping me review the content.
PART ONE: From Playoff Challenger to Challenger space shuttle
Like any proper degenerate, I like to make a few Las Vegas "oveunder" bets before the season (note: don't try it at home, it's usually a waste of time and money.)
Still, a few win totals jumped out at me. Among them: the Chicago Bulls, oveunder 33.5 wins.
Now, the logical move may have been to pound the "under" here. After all, this was a team coming off two seasons with 27-55 and 22-60 records. However, I couldn't help but overthink this one. Sure, the Bulls had a very bad 2018-19 season (highlighted by Fred Hoiberg getting fired and Drill Sergeant Jim Boylen taking over). At the same time, they played better in the second half of the season. Boylen (douche or not) would presumably keep improving their defense. Moreover, Boylen and the front office were on shaky ground in terms of their job security, which usually motivates an organization to push forward and win as much as possible.
The front office clearly had that in mind as well, signing Tomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young to sizable $10M+ contracts. Neither are great players, or perhaps even good players, but they're solid and reliable veterans whom the team could immediately plug into a rotation. These Bulls felt deep, balanced, and perhaps ready to strike. After all, star Zach LaVine would be set to enter Year 6 in the league. Otto Porter would be entering Year 7. Some of their other "young" pieces weren't that young; for example, Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine are both 26 right now.
Overall, this felt like a recipe for success. Or at least, semi-success. The Bulls were ready to take a jump. Making the playoffs may have been unrealistic, but 35-38 wins felt doable. "OVER" it is!
Flash forward nearly a year later, and I've got so much egg on my face that vegans won't even talk to me anymore. Turns out, these "new Bulls" were the "same ol' Bulls." They'll end the season with a 22-43 record, which would have put them on pace for 27.8 wins over 82 games, well under the 33.5 set by Vegas.
So what went wrong? How did this potential darkhorse run so far off the rails that it needed to get shot and turned to glue? Let's take a closer look.
PART TWO: Missing Otto Porter III + D
One of the major reasons the Chicago Bulls disappointed in 2019-20 was injuries. Center Wendell Carter missed time, and Otto Porter III barely played due to lingering hip injuries. He appeared in 14 games, and only drew 9 starts (averaging 23 minutes per game.)
On the surface, Porter shouldn't feel like a huge loss. After all, this is a player who's never averaged as much as 15 PPG in any season in his career and has never sniffed an All-Star team.
That said, the loss of Porter had a trickle down effect that hurt the team in numerous ways.
Offensively, Porter is a low-usage player who's about as efficient as anyone in the league. For his career, he shoots over 40% from three (40.4%). Better yet, he's only averaged 0.8 turnovers per game (1.1 TO per 36 minutes.) He's what you'd call a role player / assassin. He gets in, hits his target, and slips out without being noticed. Porter actually has a little more versatility to his offensive game than the average catch-and-shoot player (he can take you down on the block, for example), but most often, he's used as a spacer and he thrives in that regard. Without Porter's shooting, the Chicago Bulls' offense looked even more sluggish than usual. Their offensive rating ranked 27th out of the 30 teams in the league.
Porter's loss also showed up in other ways. Porter's not a great defender -- he's probably "above average" -- but that's still an asset to have in your lineup. He's a savvy player who's usually locked in defensively, despite one infamous Shaqtin' A Fool moment. He also has good size and length for his position at 6'8" with a 7'1" wingspan.
That size is a key element to this discussion. Porter has "plus" size as a small forward. In his absence, the Bulls struggled to fill that void with the same. They ended up shifting Zach LaVine (6'6", 6'8" wingspan) over to small forward quite a bit. LaVine played 67% of his minutes at SF this past season according to basketball-reference. You can take those positional play-by-plays with a grain of salt because it's not easy to track and label, but that's still a notable difference in terms of the roster composition. The Bulls were smaller than average at SF, and smaller than average at SG with rookie Coby White (6'4", 6'5" wingspan) playing the majority of his minutes there.
The natural follow up to this may be: so what? Even with those size limitations, Jim Boylen's Bulls still finished with the 14th best defense (up from 25 last year.) However, the lack of size on the wings helped contribute to the Bulls' problems on the glass. They finished 30th (out of 30 teams) in total defensive rebounds, and 28th in rebounding differential (-3.6 per game). Using rebounding totals isn't always the best metric to use because bad teams miss more shots (and thus allow their opponents more rebounds). However, if you dig deeper, the numbers still aren't pretty. The Bulls' grabbed 75.6% of their potential defensive rebounds -- 5th worst in the league. Overall, they grabbed 47.9% of all potential rebounds -- 2nd worst in the league. "Rebounds" may be not be an en vogue stat in general, but it's a weakness that still hurt the team at the margins. When you're a mid-level team, those extra few possessions per game could mean the difference between a win and a loss.
The good news? Porter will likely be back and healthy next season. The bad news? He's not cheap. He'll almost certainly pick up his oversized $28M player option. In another circumstance, he may try to rip it up and renegotiate a long-term deal with the Bulls or another team instead, but the murkiness around the cap and around his health makes that too difficult to imagine. Barring a trade, he'll be back with the Bulls next year, and will help the team win a few more games.
PART THREE: Misusing their offensive weapons
The Chicago Bulls are a young team, built around young stars like Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen. Both LaVine and Markkanen have some limitations overall, but they're both gifted offensive players. So given that, how is it that the team only finished 27th in offensive efficiency?
In terms of the national media, a lot of the blame tends to fall on Zach LaVine. After some inefficient play early on in his career, the narrative has stuck that LaVine is an "empty calorie" or "volume" scorer. However, the results on the court don't really justify that anymore. Sure, LaVine shoots a lot, but he doesn't take as many bad shots as you may expect. He takes 8.1 threes per game (and makes an above-average 38%). He takes 5.6 free throw attempts per game (making 82% for his career.) Overall, that's a winning formula. LaVine's efficiency and true shooting is above league-average, no small feat for a player averaging 25.5 points per game this year. You'd like to see him hammer his way to the line even more, but he's not the problem for this team (offensively.)
Meanwhile, Markkanen has some work to do. For a 7-footer, he's a gifted shooter. He shot 42.3% from three in college (and even flirted with 50% early in the season.) He carried that success over to the NBA for his first two years, netting over 36% from three each year. His results at the free throw line (84% then 87% as a second-year player) illustrated his potential to keep improving from there. 7-footers tend to get labeled as "stretch bigs" if they can get anywhere over 30% from three; Markkanen has the potential to get closer to 40%.
However, that leap didn't happen in Year 3. Markkanen sagged to 34.4% from three, and "only" 82.4% from the free-throw line. But those percentages aren't what bothers me. Percentages will go up and down over smaller sample sizes like that. What's more concerning is how Markkanen's role shrunk offensively. After averaging 15.3 field goal attempts last season, he slipped down to 11.8 attempts this season per game. Even if you account for a few less minutes, he dropped from 17 FGA to 14 FGA in terms of "per 36" numbers.
As mentioned, Markkanen is an offensive player. He's a shooter. I'm no coaching genius (and neither is Jim Boylen apparently), but I'd encourage a shooter to SHOOT. Because if Markkanen isn't a focal point of your offensive attack, then he's not doing much good for your team. He's not a good defender -- he's not a good rebounder. This is like the Justice League sending Aquaman off to the find evil aliens in the desert; we're misusing his talents here, people.
Practically speaking, the next Bulls' coach needs to rethink the approach with Markkanen. Personally, I believe he has more in the tank offensively than he's been allowed to show so far. Maybe he's not Dirk Nowtizki, but he's still an extraordinary talent as a shooter for his size; I'd make a point of funneling him the ball. And if the problem is that he's getting marginalized by ball-dominant LaVine, then Markkanen should come off the bench as a 6th man scorer instead. He needs to be an offensive priority whenever he's in the game. And consequently, a better offensive philosophy and system needs to be installed in order to allow that to happen.
PART FOUR: Natural growing pains
When the Chicago Bulls' playoff chances slipped away, Jim Boylen and the front office finally unleashed their rookie, Coby White.
White took advantage of that greenlight and turned up the gas as a scorer. He'll end the season with a modest 13.2 points per game, but that undersells his impact as a scorer. Per 36 minutes, he averaged 18.5 points per game. That trended upwards over the course of the season as well. White averaged over 20 points per game in February and March (albeit over a limited 14 game size.) If White can do that as a 20-year-old rookie, then it's fair to suggest that he could be routinely scoring over 20 PPG in his prime.
While Coby White has some obvious virtues -- highlighted by his quickness and his cool hair -- there are some natural concerns and growing pains that he showed. He scored, but he didn't necessarily do that with efficiency. He shot only 39.4% from the field, and netted only a 50.6 true shooting percentage that's well below the league average.
Defensively, White also struggled. Playing "up" at SG for 71% of his minutes (and even at SF for 17%!), White's limited size and limited experience showed. ESPN's real/plus minus metric graded him as -1.9 impact per 100 possessions. If you wanted to count White as a point guard, that would rank 89th best (out of 94 qualifiers.) If you envision him as a shooting guard, that would rank 134th (out of 137 qualifiers.)
That debate -- is Coby White a point guard or shooting guard? -- is an important one. Sure, we're in an era of "position-less" basketball to some extent, but players still have certain roles offensively and certain assignments defensively. White's limited size and length (6'5" wingspan) projects best as a point guard. However, he's more of a scorer than a natural distributor. He only averaged 3.8 assists per 36 minutes this season, not far removed from the 5.2 assists per 36 minutes he averaged back in college at UNC. His playmaking can improve, but he's more of an attack dog by nature.
This combination of strengths and weaknesses makes you wonder about the long-term fit next to Zach LaVine. If the Bulls' long-term plan is to play White at SG and LaVine at SF, then they're always going to be behind the eight-ball in terms of length and rebounding (especially with Lauri Markkanen at the 4.) If their plan is to start White as a point guard, then they're going to have to rely on LaVine to be more of a lead facilitator, or on the entire team to adopt more of a ball-moving offense 1-5.
Most realistically, White projects best as a super-scorer off the bench, a la Lou Williams. To excel in that role, he'll need to continue to draw more free throws (he was at only 2.0 FTA per game as a rookie), but the potential is there to improve his shot selection and become a big-time scorer. Staggering White and LaVine would also allow them to be aggressive as scorers without stepping on each other's toes.
PART FIVE: Done with Dunn?
The other reason that it'll be important for the new Bulls' coach and front office to devise a long-term plan for Coby White is because it will affect other decisions on the roster. Among them: the fate of Kris Dunn.
Like Coby White, Dunn has some extreme strengths and weaknesses -- they just happen to be in opposite order. He EXCELS defensively. He has a big frame (6'9" wingspan) and natural instincts on that end. He nabbed 2.0 steals this season in only 24.9 minutes of action. A lot of times, "steals" can be misleading because they amount to gambling. For Dunn, it's more reflective of his actual talent. He has extremely quick hands; he could have made a lot of money as a gunslinger back in the Old West. In some ways, he reminds you of Andre Iguodala on the ball defensively, combining length, strength, and savvy.
The rest of Dunn's game is a mixed bag. He's not a bad distributor (averaging 6.0 assists in both 2017-18 and 2018-19), but he's a poor shooter. He's also had injury issues flare up over the course of his career. As mentioned, he's already 26 years old, so it's unrealistic to expect him to become a wholly different player in the next few years. With Kris Dunn, you mostly know what you're getting to get. So the question is: do you want it or not?
The Bulls will have to make that choice this offseason, as Dunn enters his (restricted) free agency. There's a chance that COVID will infect the cap and allow them to retain him on his one-year qualified offer of $7M. Alternatively, there's a chance that another team will swoop him and sign him to an offer sheet. He'd make some sense for a team like the Detroit Pistons, who could invest in him as an heir apparent to Derrick Rose at PG. If a team like that offers Dunn a deal in the 3 year, $8-10M per year range, will the Bulls match it? TBD.
Again, a lot depends on their views regarding Coby White. If they envision White as a future starter at PG, then there's less of a need for Kris Dunn. The Bulls would be able to start White at PG as soon as next year, with Tomas Satoransky as a combo guard off the bench and Ryan Arcidiacono serving as a third point guard and insurance policy. If the team envisions Coby White as a SG (or combo guard off the bench) then there's more of a need for Kris Dunn to platoon with Satoransky as a lead guard.
This game of musical chairs may be getting more crowded, because there's also another element at play: yet-another lottery pick.
PART SIX: Drafting some Help
Currently, the Chicago Bulls are slated in the # 7 position in terms of the NBA Draft order. They have a 9% chance of moving up to # 1, and a 32% chance of moving into the top 4. If they can make that leap, then that would mean adding another potential star to the fold. It's not a strong draft by any stretch, but SG Anthony Edwards (Georgia) and C James Wiseman (Memphis) have the potential to be good starters. If they can land someone like that, you ignore "fit", take the potential stud, and work out the rest later.
More likely, the Bulls will be picking in that 7-8 range. That's still a good pick, of course, but not one that should cause you to throw the baby out with the bath water and ignore the composition and needs of your team.
Again, this is why the "Do the Bulls need a PG?" question becomes so critical. This is a poor draft, but it's strongest in terms of its point guard depth. According to ESPN's draft experts, 5 of the top 13 prospects are point guards (LaMelo Ball, Tyrese Haliburton, Killian Hayes, R.J. Hampton, Cole Anthony). A few of those -- namely Hayes and Anthony -- are "pure" point guards who don't have enough size to switch around and play minutes at the 2.
Among the crop that's likely to be available around pick 7, here are some potential fits.
PG TYRESE HALIBURTON, IOWA STATE (# 8 on espn). Haliburton is one of the easiest "fits" for the Bulls and for basically every team, because he offers a versatile set of skills. He's technically a point guard (averaging 15.2 points and 6.5 assists last year) and can capably fill that role. Better still, he can be effectively off the ball. His three-point shot looks a little wonky, but he converts it well, hitting 42.6% of his threes in college. Defensively he's got good size (6'5" with a 6'10" wingspan) and instincts (2.5 steals, 1.3 fouls last year). In a sense, Haliburton can be a "3 + D" point guard that plays alongside a ball-dominant player, be it Zach LaVine or Coby White. If the team drafts him, you figure it'd be with the intention of using him as an upgrade on Dunn (slightly worse defense but better offense.)
SG DEVIN VASSELL, FLORIDA STATE (# 16 on espn). Like Haliburton, Devin Vassell is another player who could fit well on virtually every team because of his 3+D potential. He's hit 41.7% of his threes in his two years at FSU with a good-looking form that's aided by good size for his position and a higher release than Haliburton. Right now, Vassell is listed around 6'6" with an estimated 6'10" wingspan, but he looks bigger than that to my eye. That's crucial because it would allow him to play both SG and SF and draw some different assignments defensively. I also like Vassell's personality off the court; he seems like a good kid that should continue to improve. Like Haliburton, Vassell is the type of player that should easily into a lineup with LaVine and/or White.
SF DENI AVDIJA, ISRAEL (# 5 on espn). I'm not going to pretend to have as much confidence in my projection of Avdija, who's played in the international youth circuit and has been a rising star with Maccabi Tel Aviv. Based on what I do know, he could be an intriguing boom/bust pick around # 7. He's a big forward (6'9") who can convert inside, and better yet, has a real knack for playmaking. The Bulls' young stars -- Zach LaVine, Coby White, Lauri Markkanen -- are all better scorers than passers right now, so perhaps Avdija can operate as a de facto point forward and help the offense click into place. Right now, his shooting results have been shaky though, so he's not someone you can just throw out there and tell to stand in the corner as a 3+D option. If you take him, you need an actual plan to highlight his skill set. The Bulls' top exec Arturas Karnisovas is from Lithuania originally, so you presume that he'd have no qualms about selecting an European like Avdija (whose dad is Serbian) if need be. Of course, that logic didn't quite work out for Sacramento GM Vlade Divac and Luka Doncic.
SHAKIER FITS. Alternatively, there are some players in the Bulls' draft range that may not be ideal fits. As mentioned, Killian Hayes and Cole Anthony are more of traditional ball-dominant point guards; I don't love the idea of that next to Coby White and Zach LaVine. I'd also be wary of Dayton's PF Obi Toppin. Toppin has strong scoring potential with a decent shot and good athleticism inside. That said, he's a little stiff in the hips defensively, and may duplicate Lauri Markkanen in that regard.
PART SEVEN: Buh-Buh Boylen
One of the Chicago Bulls' biggest decisions will be among their first. Technically, the new front office has not fired coach Jim Boylen yet, but it appears that his clock is ticking on that decision. It's only a matter of time.
Candidly, Boylen gets too harsh of a rap from national media and fans. He's not a complete asshat. He's had success as a defensive assistant in the past, and did help the Bulls' defense improve some over the past few years. He'd be a fine assistant coach somewhere in that limited capacity.
However, he does seem woefully out of his depth as a head coach. He's never had success in that role before, and he didn't have any now. His offensive system is virtually nonexistent, and his attitude is boarish. Usually those "Drill Sergeant" coaches get a short-term year or two of improvement from a young team, but he couldn't even do that. We need to pull him out of there before there's a full-on Full Metal Jacket rebellion here.
Looking ahead, the Bulls need to pick a coach that can get the team back on track, especially in terms of their offensive philosophy. That said, the Bulls have to be careful not to "zigzag" too much in their coaching hires. They went from Tom Thibodeau (the gruff, defensive-heavy coach) to the Anti-Thibodeau in Fred Hoiberg (likable, low-key former player), and then jumped on the seesaw again with the complete opposite in Boylen. There's always a tendency to go for the opposite of your last coach, but presumably there's a happy medium in between these two poles. Goldilocks was happy to find something "just right," so Karnisovas should be as well.
According to media reports, Ime Udoka is a top candidate, and would be a natural fit. While Udoka doesn't have head coaching experience yet, he's about as "ready" as any first-time coach would be. He's a former player, and a long-time assistant under Gregg Popovich in San Antonio (and now has worked the last year in Philadelphia.) The Spurs' philosophy is an ideal template for the Bulls to use, both in terms of their offensive ball movement and their locker room culture.
I'd also recommend Kenny Atkinson as a viable candidate. He didn't mesh with the new superstars in Brooklyn, but he'd done a great job prior to that in terms of rebuilding a broken Brooklyn team. He specializes in pace and space offense, and player development. That sounds ideal for this team right now.
There are a few other candidates out there that would be worth interviews (Chris Finch, Wes Unseld Jr., Chris Fleming, Nate Tibbetts, Alex Jensen, Dave Joerger, etc) but Udoka and Atkinson represent a very solid top two. Hiring either of them would be a great first step for this new administration.
TL;DR
The Chicago Bulls' "breakout" didn't happen; instead, they broke down. However, the foundation isn't bad here. If the new front office wants to push for the playoffs next year (manifested by keeping Otto Porter and continuing to play veterans) then it's not unrealistic that they can get up to 35-40 wins with better health and a better offensive system. Conversely, the team may decide they're further away than that, and take a step back to collect their bearings.
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(OC Megapost) the 2020 NBA Draft, Free Agency, and How the Warriors Can Play Their Cards to Set up Another Decade of Contention

(OC Megapost) the 2020 NBA Draft, Free Agency, and How the Warriors Can Play Their Cards to Set up Another Decade of Contention
Media members and the NBA subreddit will tell you our dynasty is over, however if you take a closer look, this franchise has one of the brightest futures in the NBA. I’ve had some free time on my hands so I decided to do some investigation on what moves Bob Myers & Co might make to keep us in contention. After all, they have been vocal about keeping our championship window open as long as possible.

This post is long so feel free to jump around. I broke it up into three sections with a TLDR at the end
  1. Current Roster Construction
  2. How we should use our 2020 draft pick
  3. Free Agency and the TPE

First, Roster Construction: Looking Ahead


G: Stephen Curry- Age 31 (Almost 32)
Curry is our franchise linchpin and until proven otherwise, the best point guard in the league. With that being said….......fuck…….... Steph is getting older. Injuries, wear and tear, and playoff minutes will all be factors in his eventual decline. Curry is under contract for two more years and the front office will probably extend him with another max deal.
The Future: There is a good chance these next two seasons are Curry’s last as a superstar, although his skill set will translate well into his mid 30’s. I’m praying we get 3-4 more years of MVP level Steph. We probably see regular season load management for the rest of his career.

G: Klay Thompson- Age 30
  • Max Contract Through 2024 (will be 34)
  • Bird Rights
  • 2020 Minutes Prediction: 75 games @ 32 mpg
Klay is locked up under contract and in the middle/late stage of his prime. He is in the sweet spot of mental & physical development and we should see peak Klay for at least a couple more seasons. ACL tears are almost always 100% recoverable with current medical technology, so I’m not worried about a production decrease until the 2022-23 season.
The Future: Standard Klay for the next 2-3 years.
F: Andrew Wiggins, Age 24 (almost 25)
  • Max Contract Through 2023 (will be 28)
  • Bird Rights
  • 78 Games @ 34 mpg
Andrew has been a hot and controversial topic since he was traded last week. Take a look at our official trade thread.Emotions have now settled, and it looks like he can be a contributing factor on a championship team. He is durable, unselfish, our best athlete, a great on-ball defender, and a much more natural scorer compared to someone like Barnes. He’s also just entering his “prime”. Most NBA players have their best seasons age 26-31 so there is potential (the magic word!) we see Wiggins improve here.
There are, however, negatives to Andrew’s game. He is not a great facilitator (although he is getting better), PnR ball handler, iso player, leader, and lacks the “dog” of a superstar #1 pick. I wouldn’t call him malaise, but he is an emotionless player. Luckily for us we will play to his strengths and through three games we can already see how he fits our system: cutting, hard drives, moving the ball, smart threes, and running the floor. Andrew is taking less shots & scoring more efficiently than he did with the Wolves, and I see this continuing as the third option.
Luckily we have leadership and emotional players so Wiggins can just come out and ball. Check out Athletic Alchemy's video on winning culture and accountability
The Future: Being incredibly conservative, I have him averaging 18/5/3 shooting 48/36/75 next year with good defense. This production is almost twice what Barnes averaged in the Bay and would solidify Andrew as a top 7-10 SF. His ceiling however is higher, and star potential is still there.

F: Draymond Green, Age 29 (almost 30)
  • Contract Through 2024, Player Option (will be 34)
  • Bird Rights
  • 70 Games @ 33mpg
Draymond might be the worst scorer in the league, but our fanbase know he does everything else at a good-to-elite level. He’s our general, our defensive anchor, and the father figure of this G-league roster.
Offensively he orchestrates the team, handles the ball, and is our best facilitator. Defensively he's top a help/PnR defender, and when he locks-in he is still elite on-ball. With Dlo gone he can run more of the offense and won't get as frustrated on the other end. Physically we aren’t in 2015 anymore, but Dray can still turn on the burners and push it when he needs to. He is the vocal leader of this team, a great motivator, and keeps everyone accountable while being one of the winning-est players of this generation.
The Future: With a rejuvenated and well rested Green I think we see at least another 2 seasons of high level production. I’m curious to see how his declining athleticism impacts his game, although I don’t think we notice a big difference for a few years.

C: Kevon Looney, Age 24
  • Contract Through 2022, Player Option (will be 26)
  • Bird Rights
  • 68 games @ 14 minutes a night
Looney was a key piece to our finals roster last year and has a role when this team is healthy. This year's production has been a wash with injuries and I hope he can get his mojo back for next season.
At his best Looney is a small center who has good lateral quickness and can switch 1-5 competently. He has decent offensive IQ and can finish around the rim. Hopefully he can continue to develop and be a rotation piece in the future. He’s only 24 years old.
Next Year: We probably see Looney with similar effectiveness to the 2018-2019 season, playing in match-up dependent stretches.

PG/SG: Jordan Poole, Age 20 (Rookie)
  • Contract Through 2023, Team Option (will be 23)
  • Bird Rights
  • 75 games @ 12 minutes a night
Jordan has been one of our most polarizing players. He almost played himself out of the league in December putting up 10 points on 29/26/84 efficiency. Thankfully his production has picked up since moving to point guard averaging 11/3/3 on 42/27/100 in February. He has a crafty handle and flashes of vision with a decent jump shot. His ceiling is a scoring 6th man, we just need to see continued improvement into the future.
Next Year: Poole shares the backup PG spot with Bowman and is inserted based on who’s hot.

PF/SF: Eric Paschall, Age 23 (Rookie)
  • Contract through 2022, Team Option (will be 25)
  • Bird Rights
  • 75 Games @ 24 minutes a night
Eric is a strong, physically imposing forward who has good bounce for his build. He had an incredible start in November and looked like a starting caliber player, but his production has since dropped off. Teams are learning his tendencies as our best scorer and have exploited him accordingly. Hopefully he has a strong end of the year to get a head start on improving this off-season. He needs to work on his jump shot, ball handling, defense, and overall IQ if he wants heavy minutes on our contending roster. Once again, the potential is there.
Next Year: I think Paschall improves and logs time at the 3 and 4 next season. Spacing will be much better and Eric will be able to play to his strengths on the offensive end. If he develops an average jumper + defense he is a league starter.

SG/SF: Damion Lee, Age 27
  • Contract through 2022 (will be 29)
  • Bird Rights
  • 75 games at 12 minutes a night
I don't have too much to say about Damion Lee. He is a decent scoreshooter who has had a good February. He moves without the ball and has bought into our system. He hustles and usually applies good effort. That being said he lacks the bball iq to be a good player on either end. He is who he is as a player.
Next Year: In a dry forward free agency/draft class Lee will still get playing time. Some nights he will make shots and others he will get played off the floor.

C: Marquese Chriss, Age 22
  • Contract through 2021 (will be 23)
  • No Bird Rights :’(
  • 80 Games at 26 minutes a night
I fucking love Marquese Chriss. He is an emotional player with good finishing, size, and a great vertical. He has shown some playmaking ability and can move the ball within the flow of the offense. Chriss is already a more cerebral player over centers like Javale, Dwight, and Capela. February has been a great month for him: he's averaging 15/8/1 with 2.5 bpg in 27 minutes. He’s also 22 years old.
Chriss can be a starter in this league if he improves in a few areas. Defensively his PnR game needs work: he has moments where he loses focus and can end up in the wrong spot, although his shot blocking has been excellent. Offensively he needs to polish his game and develop his jumper. If he shows even a 10% improvement overall we should be ecstatic. The Warriors will end up having to use our MLE in 2021 to keep him, although he might be offered more by other teams.
The Future: I see Chriss continuing to improve and being a solid piece, if not a starter, on this roster.

PG: Ky Bowman, Age 22
  • Contract Through 2022 (will be 24)
  • Bird Rights
  • 75 Games at 12 minutes a night
Bowman is a hustle player and our only facilitator other than Draymond. He has good chemistry with Chriss and is our “best” ball handler. He’s not someone you can count on to give you a bucket which lowers his value on this talent-dry team. He might have more success next year when we are healthy and he can focus on passing and defense. Speaking of defense, he’s good on that end.
Next Year: Ky will probably be competing with Poole next year for backup PG minutes on a game-by-game basis.

G-League + 10 Day’ers
Alen Smailagic
  • Probably the only player who is on the team next year. He is a pure project, but has shown signs he might make it in the league.
JTA
  • A good defender and that's about it. We might keep him,


The 2020 NBA Draft


The Warriors have two high draft picks, our own in 2020, and a top three protected in 2021 from Minnesota.

Why We Should Keep our (High) Draft Picks
  • Our core is heading into next year at 32 (Steph), 30 (Klay), 30 (Draymond), and 25 (Wiggins). Bringing in young players to develop and take regular season minutes from our stars makes sense.
  • High level rookies are on cheap, 4 year contracts w/ bird rights and turn into restricted free agents. We can also extend our core players while they develop.
  • It is financially impossible for this team to bring in free agents outside our MLE, TPE, and minimum contracts.
  • Drafting high-level rookies into the best culture, system, and team in the league??? Sign me up.
  • It is the only way to keep our championship window open in the short and long-term. We can still field an elite roster next year, the year after, and 5-6 years down the line if we get good development from our players.
  • That being said we shouldn’t be opposed to trading down into the 6-10 range this year if able.

Who We Should Draft

1) James Wiseman, C, Memphis, Freshman

https://preview.redd.it/w3rkm8r1rdh41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=31d4771979ae6e0da2e6be03d5940702eb15b3a0
  • 7’1” 235, 7’5” Wingspan
  • Age 18 (3/31/01)
  • 20/10/3 blocks on 77/NA/70 splits
  • Pick Prediction: We take him if he is on the board
  • James is arguably the best center prospect since Karl Anthony-Towns. But the changing NBA landscape and his shortened season might give us an opportunity to draft him as high as 5. He's an athlete, has a build that will allow him to add muscle, and was already an elite shot blocker in Memphis. He’s a physical specimen with measurables only matched by Rudy Gobert. He has shown the potential to build a jump shot and has good awareness around the rim. He shot 70% on 9FTA per game this season. It will take him time to develop into a star but he should produce at least Javale-like numbers year one. Historically we have never had a great center so it’s hard to imagine this team with a dominant big. The league is trending smaller but I still think Wiseman is a must-draft prospect with superstar potential

2) Anthony Edwards, G Georgia, Freshman

https://preview.redd.it/abdqcx92rdh41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a15508e980af81e1f5e19a7f4b362cd9a545baa1
  • 6’5” 225, 6’10” Wingspan
  • Age 18 (8/05/01)
  • 20/5/3 on 41/30/76 splits (7.5 3PA/G)
  • Pick Prediction: We take him if Wiseman is off the board
  • I’m not as high on Edwards as others but once again he has potential we can't pass up on. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft and already has an incredible NBA body. He can score and get his shot off anywhere plus has the makeup to be a lockdown defender. He already does everything on both ends of the floor well. He’s the most complete player in the draft and a top 2 pick.
  • Edwards’ biggest negative is his shot selection: Step back twos, contested jumpers, isolation fade-aways, etc. Luckily It seems it's more a product of his system/green light rather than an attitude issue (see Carmelo Anthony). It's still the biggest knock on him as a prospect and his ego would take a hit on this Warriors team.
After Wiseman & Edwards are selected I could see us trading down into the 5-11 range as star potential drops-off (except for LaMelo, who I’m not high on). Other teams will try to trade down as well, so we might end up having to keep the pick.

3a) Tyrese Haliburton, G, Iowa State, Sophomore

https://preview.redd.it/y8nozj03rdh41.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1ff238425ee79d6844c8c58d5aedae0339faf1e4
  • 6’5” 185, Good Wingspan
  • Age 19 (2/29/00)
  • 15/6/7 on 50/42/82 splits (3 3PA/G)
  • Pick Prediction: 4-8
  • Tyrese is my favorite player in this draft. I’m arguably higher on Haliburton than Edwards, especially fit-wise for this team. Tyrese is a natural passer, team player, and a more efficient scorer as a sophomore at Iowa State. He acts as the floor general in a pass-and-move system and is already an elite facilitator. He's a great shooter with a funky jumpshot (KAT and Kevin Martin mixed), but I don’t think it will be an issue in the league. He has NBA range ++ and Tyrese will space the floor immediately as a catch-and-shoot player. Defensively he needs work on-ball, but his team defense is excellent. He is a vocal defender with crisp rotations, and frequently blocks shots & attacks the passing lanes. He’s out for the season with a broken wrist so he could fall to us in the 7-10 range.

3b) Isaac Okoro, F, Auburn, Freshman

https://preview.redd.it/r8sd4bo3rdh41.jpg?width=927&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8eaf22fb9135d4df2124784b84ab772ddb56af7b
  • 6’6”, 225, 6”9” Wingspan
  • Age 19 (1/26/01)
  • 13/5/2 on 51/27/66 (2.5 3PA/G)
  • Pick Prediction: 4-6
  • Okoro is rising up big-boards as one of this draft’s most intriguing prospects. He has great athleticism and will make an immediate impact on an NBA defense: switching 1-5, locking-up the opponents best scorer, harassing off-ball, and demoralizing teams on a nightly basis. Offensively he's very raw but has come into his own since the start of the year, playing his most consistent stretch of basketball in February. He isn’t your typical 3&D wing: he's at his best when he can use his body and physicality to score. He racks up second chance points as a great offensive rebounder and thrives in transition. In the halfcourt he’s most effective when attacking the basket or cutting backdoor. His 3 ball is also improving: shooting 32% in his last 8 games (with decent form). Okoro makes us an elite defense right away and has a good ceiling offensively.

3c) Obi Toppin, F, Dayton, Sophomore

https://preview.redd.it/wddx69o4rdh41.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8a909292256014bfc78d7a8e5b77fe85f6db3d3
  • 6’9”, 220, Good Wingspan
  • Age 21 (3/4/1998)
  • 20/8/2 on 63/36/72 splits (3 3PA/G)
  • Pick Prediction: Trade down, 6-10
  • Obi is a physically developed 6’9” athlete who is an incredibly powerful dunker. He can play the post, set screens, run the floor, block shots, and is a great fit in today’s game. He’s also shown NBA range with good form in his sophomore season. Being almost 22 years old he doesn’t have the ceiling of other prospects, but he's a sure bet to be a productive player. Toppin will work as a small ball centePF and can play 3-5. His on-ball defense is a question mark against playmaking forwards but he still should be an asset on that end.

6) Deni Avdija, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv

https://preview.redd.it/lb9635b5rdh41.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9c476ba21e612da2ba2120bb5e37007612000a50
  • 6’8”, 200
  • Age 19
  • 4/3/1 on 47/33/58 (14 mpg)
  • Pick Prediction: Trade down, 7-11
  • Deni is a prospect who hasn’t played many minutes this year. He is a point-forward who can score, pass, dribble and play within the offense. In the minutes he's actually received he's been a pretty impressive player! (Think of a better facilitating Gallinari as his ceiling). He’s a decent finisher at the rim and has NBA size.
  • He does have some clear negatives: He’s limited athletically, so there is a ceiling on his defense and physical abilities. He has also been a terrible free throw shooter and his jump shot is inconsistent. That being said he is a great plug and play guy in our system with good offensive upside. He’s the last player I would be excited to draft.

Players that Don’t Make Sense


1) LaMelo Ball, G , Illawarra

https://preview.redd.it/56d3j286rdh41.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4a9918eb5a2ea7363bf8e5ac8342ad851abe1897
  • 6’7”, 180
  • Age 18 (8/22/2001)
  • 17/8/7 on 37/25/72 (Seven 3PA/G)
  • The Good: Melo is a tall point forward and a triple double threat every night. He is a smoother overall player than Lonzo, has a MUCH better handle, and has some crazy finishes at the rim (high-level 2k layup package). He has a star ceiling and is the youngest out of all the prospects.
  • The Bad: Melo is a reality TV and Instagram star. I question if he has the drive & desire to compete with guys like Jimmy Butler or Russel Westbrook on a nightly basis. I wouldn’t necessarily say he’s cocky but he celebrates and stares people down more than he should on the worst team in the NBL (5-22 record this year). He’s a bad on-ball defender and doesn’t put in effort off-ball. What will be most detrimental to his NBA career, however, is his efficiency. Melo has the dream combo of bad mechanics + poor shot selection and it translates to his shooting percentages. He’ll have to make some drastic changes to be a high-level starter. I don’t abhor him as a prospect, I just hate his fit on this team and want nothing to do with the Lavar circus.

2) Onyeka Okongwu, C, USC, Freshman

https://preview.redd.it/x9nbye47rdh41.jpg?width=620&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b297ef311e2e5c475231763d27832aec0a6c46af
  • 6’8”, 235
  • Age 19 (12/11/2000)
  • 16/9/3 blocks on 61/NA/75
  • Onyeka and LaMelo will be the second and third lottery picks from Chino Hills’ 2016 roster, joining Lonzo Ball in this year's draft. Okongwu is an imposing player that fills the lob threat/rim protector role better than anyone this class sans Wiseman. His ceiling will fluctuate based on the development of his jumpshot. I don’t see him as a fit- Chriss already takes up our undersized center role.

3) Everyone Else
  • There are an abundance of decent point guard prospects and none of them fit the roster (except Haliburton). RJ Hampton is too much of a project, Killian Hayes plays like Dlo, Cole Anthony is inefficient, and other guards will land outside of the lottery.


Free Agency and the TPE

This team has a few big holes and Warriors only have the Mid-Level Exception and Minimum contract options to use at our disposal: our biggest need is a bruising center, followed by wing depth, a backup point guard, and shooting. I’ve organized an MLE tier list and focused on our obtainable options. There are also minimum contract ideas to round out our roster. You can find current and future free agents here.

MLE Targets

First Tier, Pipe Dreams: Marc Gasol, Goran Dragic, Serge Ibaka , Danillo Gallinari
Second Tier, Realistic Options: Tristan Thompson, Aron Baynes, Dwight Howard, Paul Milsap, Jae Crowder, Jeff Teague

1) Tristan Thompson, C, Cleveland Cavs, Age 28
  • $18.6 mil current salary
  • 12/10/2 and 1 block on 51/NA/64, 30mpg
  • Full MLE
  • Tristan has the best mixture of age, physicality, defense, and rebounding out of our center options. He is also the youngest on this list at 28 years old. He can bang with other bruisers and switch 1-5 when locked in (as we have experienced first hand). He’s going to be a commodity with other contenders this summer.
2) Aron Baynes, C, Phoenix Suns, Age 33
  • $5.3 mil
  • 11/6/2 with 2 blocks on 49/33/72 (4 3PA/G), 22mpg
  • Partial MLE
  • Aron Baynes is a big center who can shoot and stretch the floor. He’s a fantastic pairing with our starters and might be signable for a portion of the MLE. He will match up against centers like Gobert, Jokic, and Adams. He fills a role this team has never had before as a stretch 5 who can hit free throws.
3) Dwight Howard, C, Los Angeles Lakers, Age 34
  • $2.6 mil current salary
  • 8/8/1 and 1.4 blocks on 74/NA/60, 20mpg
  • Partial MLE
  • Dwight finally let go of his ego and has been excellent this year in a clogged rotation. At 34 he’s still an elite athlete on the court and the best rebounder on the Lakers. He would immediately give our team size and power and brings good energy to the locker room.
4) Paul Milsap, PF, Denver Nuggets, Age 35
  • $30.1 mil
  • 12/6/2 on 48/44/85 (2.4 3PA/G), 24mpg
  • Full MLE
  • Paul has been playing at an effective level for 14 years. He’s a strong, versatile defender who can score efficiently in the flow of the offense. He’s arguably the best player on this list but he doesn’t fill our biggest needs. He will, however, be an incredible backup to Draymond and can play the 4 or small ball 5. Paul will be a highly desired asset.
5) Jae Crowder, SF, Miami Heat, Age 29
  • $7.8 mil
  • 10/6/3 on 37/29/79 (6 3PA/G) 27mpg
  • Partial MLE target
  • Crowder is our best wing option in 2020. I have him over the Morris twins because of his attitude and bball IQ. Watching Jae he’s a great teammate, hustle player, and willing passer. His efficiency is horrible this season, but it seems to be more of an outlier than normal: his career shooting splits are 42/34/78 (although fg% has been down after his stint in Boston). He’s a strong, physical defender who can guard 1-4 and always plays with effort.
6) Jeff Teague, PG, Atlanta, Age 31
  • $19.0 Mil
  • 13/6/3 on 45/38/87 splits (2.5 3PA/G) 28mpg
  • Partial MLE
  • Jeff hasn’t been a starting caliber pg since his Atlanta days, but he could be decent as a backup for Steph. I’m not a huge fan of his game, as he just edges out the Morris brothers for my last pick.

Third Tier, Honorable Mentions: Mason Plumlee, Nerlens Noel, Enes Kanter, Alex Len, Javale McGee, Robin Lopez, Morris Twins, Derrick Favors

Minimum Contract Ideas

Top 5: Wes Matthews, DJ Augustin, GR3, Marvin Williams, Patrick Patterson

Wes Mathews, G, 33
  • 8/3/1 on 41/37/77 splits (4 3PA/G), 25mpg
  • Wes is still producing on a Bucks team on pace to win 70 games. He is a good defender, spaces the floor, and can start if we need him too. He has a player option this year so we will have to offer him more than the vet minimum to pull him out of Milwaukee.
DJ Augustin, G, 32
  • 11/2/5 on 39/35/88 splits (3.5 3PA/G) 26mpg
  • DJ is not an exciting pickup by any means but he adds shooting and playmaking to the bench. As of right now he's a better overall PG than Poole and Bowman. He’s in the midst of a down year statistically and might be a good buy-low option.
Glen Robinson III, G, 26
  • 12/4/2 on 48/40/85 splits (3.5 3PA/G), 30mpg
  • GR3 got great experience on our team and developed into an efficient scorer. He understands our system and would be ideal as a backup wing. Unfortunately teams will offer him the full MLE, and I’m not sure it makes sense to pay him that on our roster.
Marvin Williams, F, 33
  • 7/3/1 on 45/37/86 splits (3 3PA/G), 20mpg
  • Marvin is not the stretch 4 he used to be but could still be a piece in our rotation.
Patrick Patterson
  • 5/3/0 on 40/37/79
  • Literally just a body at this point.

The Traded Player Exception

The warriors have a TPE valued at $17.1 mil from the Igoudala trade. I only see us trading down this year or using our personal 2021 pick as assets, so the players we can get back in return are limited. Here are three players we should consider.

Terrence Ross, G, 29
  • 13/3/1 on 39/32/83 Splits (7 3PA/G), 27mpg
  • $13.5 mil/year through 2023
  • Terrence is a decent wing player who’s having a bit of a down year percentage wise. He makes less than our full TPE and gives us more cap flexibility than someone like Evan Fornier. He is a scorer who’s best as a catch-and-shoot 2 guard and is a match in our system.
Jonas Valanciunas, C, 27
  • 15/11/2 and 1 block on 59/37/72 splits (1.5 3PA/G), 26mpg
  • $15.0 mil/year through 2022
  • Jonas fits our center rotation like a glove with his size and strength. He dominates in matchup dependent stretches against weaker bigs. The Grizzlies will want a better asset than our 2021 pick so he might be an unrealistic target.
Thaddeus Young, F, 31
  • 10/4/1 on 44/34/59 splits (3 3PA/G), 24mpg
  • $14.5 mil/year through 2022
  • Thad is highly coveted by this sub and could be a decent rotation forward, however his athleticism is declining. This year he’s been an average bench player on a bad Bulls team. His only assets are defense, hustle, and instincts. He ‘s an old option and will be 33 at the end of his contract.

Summary/TLDR:
The Warriors are in hibernation mode but have done a great job pooling assets together for another 5 year ++ run. It was a blessing in disguise that everyone got injured at the same time. Our stars are aging, so it's logical to draft rookies that will grow into our system. The talent pool isn’t elite this year, but there are a few prospects we can’t pass up on. In free agency we have the MLE, TPE, and Minimum contract options to sign players. We have a wide-variety of ways to fill out our roster. I think we maintain championship contention for at least 3 more years.
Statistics, Sources, and Salary Cap Information
https://www.basketball-reference.com/
https://www.espn.com/
https://www.spotrac.com/
submitted by Alwaysmovingup to warriors [link] [comments]

Today's Pre-Market Movers & News [Monday, January 27th, 2020]

Good morning traders and investors of the wallstreetbets sub! Welcome to the new trading week and a fresh start! Here are your pre-market news this AM-

Today's Top Headlines for Monday, January 27th, 2020

STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:

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LAST WEEK'S MARKET MAP:

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TODAY'S MARKET MAP:

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LAST WEEK'S S&P SECTORS:

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TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:

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TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

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THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

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THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:

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THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

($AAPL $TSLA $AMD $AMZN $MSFT $FB $BA $GE $MA $T $V $SBUX $PYPL $MCD $LMT $MMM $DHI $PFE $UTX $KO $UPS $S $NURO $HMST $VZ $HCA $XLNX $ARNC $XOM $CAT $BX $PGR $LRCX $GD $PHM $NVR $PII $SALT $BIIB $NOW $ANTM $NUE $ALK $PLUG $MPC)
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THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

($DHI $NURO $HMST $S $ARNC $NVR $SALT $BMRC $RDY $BOH $OPB $ARLP $PROV $NWBI)
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THIS AFTERNOON'S POST-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

()
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T.B.A.

EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

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EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

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NONE.

FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

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FRIDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

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TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

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THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS:

  • SPY
  • NNVC
  • BABA
  • QQQ
  • SPCE
  • TVIX
  • APT
  • ABBV
  • DJIA
  • DIA

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

(source: cnbc.com)
D.R. Horton (DHI) – The homebuilder earned $1.16 per share for its fiscal first quarter, beating the consensus estimate of 92 cents a share. Revenue also topped forecasts. New orders were up 19% on a volume basis and up 22% in value. The company also raised the upper end of its full-year home sales forecast.

STOCK SYMBOL: DHI

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Arconic (ARNC) – Arconic missed estimates by a penny a share, with adjusted quarterly earnings of 53 cents per share. Revenue came in shy of Wall Street predictions. The maker of engineered metals products saw a 1% improvement in organic revenue on factors like favorable pricing and raw materials costs, partially offset by some weakness in its automotive and commercial transportation markets. Arconic also said it would complete its planned split of its aerospace components and aluminum rolling businesses into two companies on April 1.

STOCK SYMBOL: ARNC

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Travel-related stocks – These are likely to be hit once again as coronavirus cases mount – including major airlines like United Airlines (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Southwest (LUV), and cruise line operators like Royal Caribbean (RCL), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), and Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL). Casino stocks like Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) are also being hit.

STOCK SYMBOL: UAL

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Starbucks (SBUX) – Starbucks has temporarily closed all its shots in China’s Hubei province and suspended delivery services, amid health concerns for customers and employees amid the spread of the coronavirus.

STOCK SYMBOL: SBUX

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Estee Lauder (EL) – Oppenheimer downgraded the cosmetics maker to “perform” from “outperform.” The firm cited the stock’s premium valuation coupled with concerns about the coronavirus impact on a company that has seen China represent a key driver of recent growth.

STOCK SYMBOL: EL

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Boeing (BA) – Boeing completed a successful maiden voyage of its 777-X jet over the weekend, a respite for the jet maker amid the ongoing grounding of its 737 Max jet.

STOCK SYMBOL: BA

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AbbVie (ABBV) – AbbVie sold a number of assets to Nestle and AstraZeneca (AZN), as it seeks to win regulatory approval for its $63 billion acquisition of drugmaker Allergan (AGN).

STOCK SYMBOL: ABBV

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Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) – Fiat Chrysler filed court motions Friday to dismiss a lawsuit filed by rival automaker General Motors (GM). Fiat Chrysler said GM does not have sufficient grounds to bring a racketeering case that alleges bribery of union officials.

STOCK SYMBOL: FCAU

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Kraft Heinz (KHC) – Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio told The Wall Street Journal that he wants to food maker to make fewer but bigger bets on new products, as its older brands suffer a sales decline.

STOCK SYMBOL: KHC

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Alphabet (GOOGL) – State attorneys general will meet with Justice Department officials to share investigative material involving Google, according to The Wall Street Journal.

STOCK SYMBOL: GOOGL

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Winnebago Industries (WGO) – The RV maker was rated “overweight” in new coverage at KeyBanc, which sees recreational vehicle shipments stronger than consensus for 2020 and is also optimistic about the increasing benefits of Winnebago’s 2016 acquisition of towable vehicle maker Grand Design.

STOCK SYMBOL: WGO

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DISCUSS!

What is on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at wallstreetbets?

I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Monday, January 27th, 2020! :)

submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Preview of tomorrows Serious Post Game Thread response [10/31/19]

Figured I might get some early feedback on this before i wake up tomorrow and tweak it for the final submission. All in all, these are my thoughts on the game filtered through 4 hours or so or hindsight in non-shitpost form. Haven't submitted too many of my serious thoughts as their own thread, but if people like it I could make this a running thing.
Feedback and spelling/grammar corrections are appreciated, and note that not all of the links are finalized because stats.nba.com hasn't finished uploading the second half in video form. I'll try to do those tomorrow.
Without further ado,
Aight, bet.
This is gonna be a long one.
To Preface: in talking about how fucking mindnumbingly putrid Milwaukee was in the second half, I am in no way using this to judge any of the players of coaches of Milwaukee's basketball abilities or talents. Furthermore, in analyzing it from a mainly Bucks perspective, I'm not trying to take away from the Celtics in doing their part of surmounting their first half deficit, I'm simply writing from the perspective I know best. I don't watch enough Celtics ball to make something of this size for them, and trying to do so would make me like incredibly ignorant.
Lets begin.

First Half:

Fuck doing quarters, the second half is what I came to talk about anyways.
Classic Bucks ball. 7 minutes into the game, the Bucks have rocketed out to a double digit lead off of an Ersan lead, and it's not difficult to see why. Throughout much of the first quarter and first half by extension, the Bucks have set the tone. On offense, leveraging drives and mismatches have led to threes for all, and without fouls and turnovers bogging them down, they can generally outgun a Celtics team missing one of its bigger contributors in Brown. Again, that's not even mentioning the Celtics already known depth issues in injuries towards bigs (Kanter), so with one less big body if the Bucks aren't making them pay in the paint, they're making them pay from behind the arc.
24 minutes in, the scoring distribution for both teams looks like this:
Things to note: the Bucks have a 9 point advantage from behind the arc. 9/22 vs 6/20 isn't too stark of a difference, but slicing the attempts by quarter [1st, 2nd] and looking at the 3 point attempts one-by-one shows a bit of a difference between the two teams. By design, the luxury of choice on 3 point shots has been in control of the Bucks, in that they've generally controlled who is allowed and not allowed to shoot from outside. Especially in the first, most of Milwaukee's looks are open, off of clean sets, or finds a confident¹ shooter² in rhythm³.
On many of these attempts, there is someone in the paint to try and corral a long rebound, and if not, granted that it's not a Lopez brother shooting it, there's generally some form of defense to protect against a long rebound and leak out in transition.
Many of the Celtics 3s have been a bit harder to come by in the same stretch. Smart and Kemba have had to do most of the heavy lifting as Celtics bigs have gotten decent contests on their 3's for Grant and Theis, and once Smart makes his voice known from deep, he starts getting tighter contests as well. Kemba is a special case which we'll revisit since he creates his 3's a bit differently.
Also for the Bucks, notice that Giannis is 5/7 from the free throw line with a pretty erratic night given his 2 misses are back-to-back airballs, but more importantly, he only has 4 field goals attempted in 14 minutes of play, with his furthest out being 9 feet. Giannis' jumper has been incredibly suspect to start this year, from 3 point land and at the line [54%!!!], and his driving game has had difficulties as well. Aside from the Celtics remaining fucking steadfast that they weren't going to allow him to drive to the rim, he's coughed up the rock a ton to start this season as well as funneled himself into quite a number of charges to rack up a number of fouls and turnovers to start this season. He's been a mixed bag to say the least, and it's coming up empty in terms of creating for himself tonight.
Bled is in a similar vein in that when his confidence is on, he can shine as brightly as his ribs will let him on the offensive end, but he's made a concerted effort to not let his scoring struggles deter from his passing at the rim in finding open looks for others. The best way to get him going is a steady diet of layups and transition buckets off of bulldog D.
Score's 58-42 and Bucks go into the lead with a 16 point advantage.

Third Quarter

Now to get into the actual interesting part of the game. Milwaukee's trainwreck of a second half.
To make this absolutely clear, I level the majority of these frustrations and criticisms at Bud. I won't be pissed at Khris, or Giannis or Bled for missing shots provided they're good looks, but I will absolutely be mad at Bud for not putting them in good enough positions to get them as good or better looks.
For much of the third, Giannis and Bled, but mainly Giannis was out there drowning. From commanding triple teams and baseline traps off of drives to getting singlehandedly guarded by Marcus Smart, he collapsed in that quarter and Bud let it take the team with him. That's not to say Giannis had a particularly good first half or that the entire team's offensive woes can be pinned on him, it's more of Bud's refusal to run the offense through anyone not Giannis who clearly wasn't dealing with their own demons on the court.
Case in point, 2 games ago: Milwaukee vs. Miami. For those that didn't catch when Doris mentioned in the broadcast, Milwaukee found themselves in a very similar situation only a few nights before where they built a big lead at the half with some scalding 3 point shooting, only to blunder that 21 point lead over the next half and only have the slightest of chances to go into OT off of Miami's mishaps at the line.
That exact run, started when Milwaukee was up 21, grew complacent in the third and used their double digit cushion to get Giannis some shoooting practice to try and bust him out of his slump. His shots unfortunately didn't fall, and Milwaukee used possessions on good sets for a cold shooter which could have been utilized elsewhere. Again, these possessions aren't bad per se, and they are open shots, but they could be better, especially given their explosive first half of play.
Déjà vu.
Owning a solid lead in the third, Milwaukee opts to continue running their offense through drive and kicks and give shooters like Bled and Giannis looks which again, aren't bad, but isn't how they built this lead that they so luxuriously acknowledge in their shot selection. Even more damning however is how Bud utilizes Giannis this quarter.
In the Miami game, there are shots to be charted even in the second half as evidence of Giannis getting to the rim on drives and imposing his will. Even in the Toronto series, Giannis' misses are proof of the defensive presence he commands and how defenders and teams are forced to game plan around him.
3 shots at the rim in a quarter where your team is -20 on the whole is a bad fucking sign.
Giannis not even getting to the rim without someone like a Kawhi, or a Ibaka or a Gasol or a Siakam, but mainly against Smart is a bad. Bud continuing to try and break him out of his streak by continuing to run the bulk of our offense not only through him, but through him on the same sets of him from the top of the key over and over when it's clearly not working and isn't drawing the same defensive attention is even worse. The worst part of it all is was the fact that this was all entirely self-inflicted.
For Bud's first year in Milwaukee, the Bucks flirted with the idea of Lopez of a 3 point shooter until they kinda madly fell in love with it. A bit too the point where they sometimes forget that he's more than capable in the paint, especially off of mismatches. One such example the Bucks love are Khris/Lopez PnR's on the wing, when Khris isn't feeling himself and trying to stepback 3 against a big, the next best bet is a Lopez postup which will often reward either a good look down low or a double on one side of the floor which is always 2 passes away at most to a decent 3 or a kick out back to Khris to reset.
Giannis fouling out in the first game of the season and the Bucks going down low to abuse PJ against Houston, and even Lopez shining against Toronto in the ECF was a bit of a turning point in them acknowledging the offensive talents he has down low, and knowing they have a way out if ever their initial game plan stalls. After all, Lopez postups surrounded by competent shooters isn't much different conceptually than Milwaukee's 5-out scheme which utilizes Giannis/Bledsoe drives to initiate their action.
Early in the third, a high PnR gave Lopez a switch which he immediately dropped back to the rim for to try and abuse the Celtics with. The only answer here would be to foul early or crowd the passing lanes/shooter to try and deny a shot if the ball was entered into the paint. Bledsoe does not do this.
Again, even with the lead, the Bucks still have the luxury to choose how they want to attack Boston. The Celtics may have Giannis and Bledsoe's numbers, but they certainly don't have Middleton's who not only has historically has made his mark against them. With the power of mismatches to really choose to iso against Kemba or his choice of whatever big Boston puts on the floor through one of Milwaukee's infinite on-ball or off-ball sets, getting a shot for Khris hasn't been a problem for Khris in the first half, and it certainly doesn't trend to be one anytime soon.
The Bucks do not do this.
Around the league, looking at the first game of the season between Milwaukee and Houston where Westbrook took over late, D'Antoni recognized that running traffic through Harden wasn't working that well with Milwaukee's specialized scheme against him, and especially once the free safety rim protector in Antetokounmpo fouled out, made sure to run their offense through Westbrook instead. This flexibility payed dividends, although his stubbornness to sub out Tucker eventually killed them.
In addition to trying to divert action from their struggling Number 1 to their feasting Number 2, the Bucks also don't try to get better quality looks by switching up the gameplan for the rest of the quarter.
Again, looking around the league in the Denver v. Dallas matchup, after Carlisle realized his two golden hens in Doncic and Porzingis were giving him goose eggs, he shifted the offense so that players like Brunson and Delon could get going and could share the burden of creating offense for others. And on the other end, Jokic only had 8 field goal attempts which some attributed to his passivity, but instead, he and Malone saw that he was attracting the majority of Dallas' defensive attention, and made sure to leverage that into freeing up the rest of the starters.
The worst part of this quarter wasn't Bud's gameplan for the majority of it, for which Barkley does get some things right, it's that when Bud wasn't using Giannis as a battering ram and instead utilized him with more finesse, it worked fucking spectacularly.
Exhibit A: Giannis's 3 pointer to Korver off beautiful cross court baseline feed @3:05 in the 3rd. Perfect Hammer setup. Here, Bud senses the momentum shift towards Boston and the copious amounts of defensive pressure that Giannis attracts so close to the rim, so he flips it with a simple hammer set to free up Korver. Those with solid memories might remember similar actions ran between Lebron and Korver over in Cleveland which produced similar results, but those who have read a basketball playbook before know that Hammer is a very simple ubiquitous set that San Antonio's been running variations of for years. Incredibly effective at catching teams off guard and great punishing a defense for packing the strong side of the court too much.

Fourth Quarter

Exhibit B: Giannis's inbound lob @10:33 in the 4th. Again, a relatively simple play that utilizes Giannis without the ball in his hands and uses the natural advantages of whats on the court to get an easy score. Middleton's passing and Giannis's athleticism free him up for the easiest look he's had all night, even with a man disadvantage on the floor.
By this point, this is Middleton's 2nd assist all night which is incredibly frustrating as his assist number is generally a good indicator of how much the offense is flowing through him, especially if Giannis or Bledsoe aren't doing well. The fact that both of them are struggling combined with the fact that Khris's shot is falling makes him not being the primary conduit of our offense to this point very frustrating. What good is a number 2 offense if we aren't looking for him the moment our number 1 needs help?
Again, in the third quarter, players not named Khris went 6/18 from the field and 2/13 while he went 2/2. As missed threes are apt to do, these careened into long rebounds which opened the door for secondary fastbreaks and defensive mismatches in transition which let Bostons wings in Tatum and Hayward flourish and opened Boston's offense on the whole. Whatever metric you want to compare their 1st half offense and their 3rd quarter offense with: points (42 vs. 38), assists (9 vs. 9), 3 pointers (6/20 vs. 6/10), they've opened the floodgates and stormed out to a lead.
Opening the quarter with momentum and a 4-point edge, the Celtics now have the luxury of deciding how to run their offense. Tatum and Hayward and their weapons of choice from here on out, both confident and aggressive after coming to life. With their primary ball handlers going, their half court offense can now wreak havoc against Milwaukee with their own drive and kicks and punish players like Lopez or Antetokounmpo for helping too far off with 3 point shooters like Theis. Not much to say for the majority of Boston's offense that hasn't been said on a basic scouting report: Hayward getting to his little spots in the midrange and getting momentum for floaters and finishes, and Tatum maximizing his shots by not spending them on as many midrange shots. To put the game away, Kemba delivers late with his own brand of punishment that the Bucks are no strangers to.
As promised, Kemba deserves a bit of a special dive into as playing the Bucks really highlights how different his tendencies are from, a "Kyrie Irving".
Last year, the very first game of the season for Milwaukee was a game against the Hornets in Charlotte which they won 113-112. They started with a solid lead which they failed to protect late, but more notably, was the fact that Kemba had 41 points on 7/13 shooting from deep. Whereas a Kyrie Irving might utilize a mismatch from a pick and roll to either take his time and iso whoever gets switched on to him (see, the majority of the Bucks/Celtics series), Kemba attacks Milwaukee's scheme very differently. Kyrie might have settled for a 3 pointer against a slow-footed big or drawn them out to attack the paint. On high PnRs with a non-shooting big, Lopez is instructed to drop back and let the guard pick up Kemba from behind and have them use their strength to corral them into the paint where he can guard both the lob threat and the layup. Kemba uses the immediate window granted by the Bucks guard to get behind him and the space granted by Lopez dropping back to fire a pullup three which he loves. Again, it's little things like player tendencies and knowing your personnel that the Bucks need to adapt to on the fly.
One such adaptation was Boston doubling Lopez on the baseline off of a Bledsoe/Lopez PnR on the right wing, which they were free to do because like in the Toronto series, Bledsoe's inability to shoot when he initiated the Bledsoe/Giannis PnR invited double teams where the best open look was a 3 point shot for him, a shot Boston and Toronto were more than happy to give him when he's cold.
In the fourth Khris shone once the offense ran through him but it was too late, so his 13 4th quarter points didn't help much. Ironically the Bucks did run a Khris/Lopez PnR at @3:45 which paid immediate dividends as it stopped the clock and got him free throws after only 11 seconds of game time, an easy out the Bucks could've sorely used the last 20 minutes.
Not really much to talk about past that.
Again, this isn't a post to shit on Bud or the players, and I understand that it's only game 4 of a budding season coming off it's best performance in literally decades. I understand that the new editions are still nascent and have to find their roles in this team. I vividly remember the dark days of Kidd's sets and even before then when I believed Nate Wolters was the future of the franchise. He's been the best thing for this team next to maybe management and Giannis and we would have none of our current success without him. But I don't care if this is game 4 of the regular season or Game 4 of the ECF, this was an objectively terrible game from Bud and I think his worst since he's arrived in Milwaukee. 2nd 20 point lead blown this week, and the only real consolation is it's not in Game 7 of the World Series. If we can hype up this team at their highest, we can at least acknowledge them when they're fucking up, or at least use it as a learning experience.
On to Orlando, and hopefully Bledsoe/Giannis breaks out of his slump by then.
***note to self. if I'm a dumbass and this is still in, make sure to edit the rest of the video links
submitted by yungtito to MkeBucks [link] [comments]

WORK In prog

On our MTV Challenge Accepted podcast (link in bold) we have a segment where we discuss this question. Whose stock went up? Whose stock went down? Here were our winners and losers this week.
STOCK UP
[OC] Which awards are locked in? Which are still up for debate? a glance through the odds and campaigns in each category
It feels like it's been 5 years since we've seen actual NBA basketball, which may make awards debates and campaigns more difficult. Wait, who was playing well again...? Dennis Schroder? Seriously? Huh. Okay then.
As we soldier back into the bubble, there's a risk that awards voters will forget about that early part of the season (aka the vast majority) and fall victim to recency bias. Given that, we wanted to glance through the major races and determine which -- if any -- awards may still be in debate.
For this exercise, I'm using the current odds as listed by an online betting site (bovada). Note: the percentages do NOT add up to 100% because online betting sites like your money.
MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo: - 3500 (97%)
LeBron James: +600 (14%)
is the race over?
This betting site heavily favors Giannis Antetokounmpo, although some other metrics have it closer than that. Basketball-reference's MVP tracker lists Giannis at 50.7% and LeBron at 17.3%.
I'm more inclined to believe the latter and that LeBron James would be closer to 15-20% odds. No doubt, Giannis is a worthy MVP. He's been a dominant force (again) for the top statistical team in the league (again.) He's racking up 30-14-6 in only 30.9 minutes per game. In most circumstances, he'd win this award in a walk.
That said, you can never discount "narrative," and LeBron James has a few of those going for him. The Lakers have vaulted up to the # 1 seed in the West, outperforming preseason expectations. James has played exceptionally well, and even led the league in assists. Partly because of that, James' camp has successfully gotten the media to buy into the storyline that he made a sudden transition to point guard (ya know, because he had always deferred to his point guards like Mo Williams and Mario Chalmers in the past...)
More than that, James may benefit from this strange corona-bubble. He's been a leading advocate for continuing on, and as always, players tend to follow his lead. I can see more than a few media members giving James an MVP vote for "saving the season." All in all, I expect this vote to be closer than it should be (and I expect poor James Harden to finish well behind where he should as well.)
So James will get some votes, but can he actually win the award? I wouldn't rule it out. The Lakers are currently 3 games behind the Bucks for the # 1 overall seed. It's hard to imagine Milwaukee losing enough to slip, but it's not Wallace Shawn inconceivable either. If the Lakers somehow manage to catch them, then I actually think LeBron will win MVP. Of course, it's more likely the Bucks will hang onto the # 1 seed, and Giannis will hang onto MVP. But again, I don't think it's a stone cold lock -- yet.
Rookie of the Year
Ja Morant: - 3500 (97%)
Zion Williamson: +850 (11%)
is the race over?
It should be. Zion Williamson is freakin' amazing, but he's played 19 games so far. That's 40 less than Ja Morant, who has played stellar ball for a rookie from a small school, and somehow led the Memphis Grizzlies to the 8th seed.
Still, we can't rule out the risk of recency bias and a wild overreaction from the media. Williamson has a chance to lead the Pelicans up to the 9th spot, at which point they'd play Morant's Grizzlies. If Williamson can lead New Orleans to two victories over Memphis in a row -- and thus leapfrog them in the standings -- then it's very feasible the media would throw their vote his way. The media (and the league as a whole) tends to like this Zion fella, if you haven't noticed.
Sixth Man
Dennis Schroder: - 220 (69%)
Montrezl Harrell: +190 (34%)
Lou Williams: +450 (18%)
Derrick Rose: +3000 (3%)
is the race over?
Simply put: no. It's still a three-man race in my book. The Clippers' Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell finished 1-2 last season, and are right back in the thick of things this year. Among the two, it's harder to justify Williams' winning for the third season in a row. He hasn't played as well as last year, and hasn't been as big of a focal point for the Clippers' game plan. He hasn't looked as engaged this season, and even debated missing the bubble.
With Sweet Lou taking a slight step back, it's opened the door for Dennis Schroder. He's having a career season in terms of efficiency. In fact, it's hard to understate his jump this year. In his six previous season, his career high TS% was only 53.3%. This season? He's vaulted up to 57.3%. The question is: have enough voters noticed? OKC has been a feel-good story this year, but Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tend to get the most credit for that.
Overall, I wouldn't be surprised if voters get lazy and just fall back on the highest scorer among the three. And even by those standards, the race is wide open. Schroder is at 19.0 PPG, Williams is at 18.7 PPG, and Harrell is at 18.6 PPG. A strong (or bad) week or two in the bubble may tilt this race in any direction.
Defensive Player of the Year
Giannis Antetokounmpo: -500 (83%)
Anthony Davis: +200 (33%)
Rudy Gobert: +2800 (3%)
is the race over?
Even among savvy and analytically-inclined media members, "defense" is still something of a mystery to quantify. We see a lot of herd mentality emerge for DPOY voting, with candidates needing to stake their claim early on and campaign all season long.
In terms of storylines and narratives, it felt like Anthony Davis had the early momentum. He's a wrecking ball (1.5 steals, 2.4 blocks) who helped improve the Lakers' defense from # 12 to # 3 this season. Still, Giannis Antetokounmpo has steadily built his case for a double MVP + DPOY, and currently ranks as the betting favorite on this site.
Personally, I believe it's a closer race than these numbers suggest. At the same time, I'm not sure what their play in the bubble is going to do about it. More likely, it'll be an influential media piece (like Zach Lowe pushing for Marc Gasol) that may get voters ushering on one side or another.
Most Improved
Bam Adebayo: -150 (60%)
Brandon Ingram: +250 (29%)
Luke Doncic: +500 (17%)
Jayson Tatum: +900 (10%)
Devonte Graham: +1000 (9%)
is the race over?
Again, this race feels "too close to call" to me. John King and David Chalian may be tallying up the counties all night long.
Earlier this season, I looked back at previous Most Improved winners and tried to find some common threads. On average, the winner improved from 11.7 PPG to 19.6 PPG (roughly +8 points.)
Historically speaking, Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum fit close to those templates. Ingram has swelled from 18.3 PPG to 24.3 PPG in his first season in New Orleans (+6). Tatum has made an even bigger leap, going from 15.7 PPG to 23.6 PPG (essentially our exact +8). Of the two, I may lean more to Ingram myself. Tatum's taking more shots and more threes, but he was already considered a proven star prior to this. Ingram had been more of a question mark before, but has now established himself as a potential max player. The key for him has been an improved FT%. In his first three seasons, he shot 62%, 68%, and 68% from the line. This year, he's up to 86%. That's major progress, and represents a massive difference in his efficiency "floor." Still, you wonder if Ingram's momentum peaked too early. Ever since Zion Williamson came back, it feels like Ingram has been an afterthought in the media.
Conversely, Bam Adebayo's reputation within the media is still surging. He's been a major reason for the Miami Heat's success this year, nearly doubling from 8.9 PPG to 16.2 PPG (+7.3 overall.) He's also doubled his assists (from 2.2 to 5.1). If you wanted to nitpick Adebayo's candidacy, you may suggest he was pretty darn good already. A lot of the statistical upswing comes from an increase in minutes, from 23.3 to 34.4 this year.
Overall, I'd say Abebayo is the favorite, but I wouldn't lock it in yet. A player like Brandon Ingram could get hot and have a few 40 point games, at which point the momentum may swing back in his favor.
When anthropology professors
99 cent store free agents: Point Guards
The NBA offseason is always filled with exciting storylines like star free agents and blockbuster trades.
But rather than dwell on the obvious, this series intends to do the opposite: focus on the lower-profile free agents who may have some value to teams. No NBA player is actually "99 Cents," of course, but these are all players who may be bargains based on their perceived market.
This "99 Cent Store" series has been open for business for the last two offseasons. In the past, we've highlighted names like Fred VanVleet (pre breakout), Christian Wood, and Davis Bertans. Not all of the items turn out to be gems (is Nerlens Noel still not a DPOY candidate yet?), but the returns have been largely positive so far. Let's see if we can keep that momentum going this season.
99 cent store
Langston Galloway, Detroit Pistons, UFA, 28 years old
In last year's 99 Cent Store, we hyped up Seth Curry (Steph's brother) as a possible value free agent. Seth didn't have the size and skill set of a traditional point guard, but the NBA isn't always craving traditional point guards these days. A lot of star SGs, SFs, PFs, and even Cs have the ball in their hands, so teams need to fill the court with a supporting cast that can complement them and provide spacing. Effectively an undersized SG, Seth's excellent shooting appeared to be a perfect complement to a ball-dominant superstar. Seth ended up going to Dallas on a moderate contract, and had a strong season for them in that role.
For those same reasons, we'd recommend Langston Galloway as a potential bargain add. We're not going to suggest that Galloway is as good as Seth Curry as a player or as a shooter, but his skill set is related. He's not Steph Curry -- he's not Seth Curry -- he's on the opposite side of the family tree. He's like the random third cousin who shows up at the barbecue and hogs all the mac n' cheese. Still, if he got the address, then he must have some relation to the family we know and love.
Galloway would share some DNA in the sense that he's also a "point guard" who's more of an undersized shooting guard by nature. He doesn't have the ball skills or playmaking to run an offense. At all. However, he can be effective if operating as a 3+D guard. Players like Patrick Beverly and George Hill are the premium prototypes of that skill set, and Galloway is the 99 Cent store generic brand. He's an above-average as a shooter (36.7% from three for his career), and above-average as a defender, where his 6'8" wingspan helps his cause. And while it feels like Galloway has been around forever, he's still only 28 years old. He probably has 2-3 years left of usefulness in his role. There may be 1 or 2 teams that would start Langston Galloway (in a limited role), but almost every team could use him as part of the rotation.
possible fits
HOU. Russell Westbrook and James Harden are ball dominant and salary-cap dominant players, making depth a constant struggle for the team. Backup PG Austin Rivers can probably get more money than he's due on his player option ($2.4M) even in a COVID-market, possibly creating another hole. Galloway would make sense as a replacement here, seeing as how he'd be able to play in a lineup with either Westbrook or Harden.
LAL. Avery Bradley may be skipping the playoffs, but there's still a chance the Lakers can win the title with some combination of Alex Caruso and Rajon Rondo at PG anyway. But what happens if it doesn't work out? What happens if Bradley and Rondo (both of whom have player options) get shuffled out? In that case, Galloway and Caruso could tag-team and provide a decent and low-cost 3+D guard spot for next year.
MIN. The Timberwolves tried the "no PG offense" for a majority of the season, and it didn't work out so hot. Now, they'll be handing the reins over to D'Angelo Russell full time. Galloway could be a nice backup for Russell; the two would have enough size to play some minutes alongside each other as well. You have to figure Gersson Rosas will prioritize shooters like Galloway as well. The team wants to play MoreyBall (top 3 in 3PA), but doesn't have the personnel yet to pull it off (bottom 3 in 3P%).
Yogi Ferrell, Sacramento Kings, UFA, 27 years old
He may be fairly anonymous now, but there was a time when the name "Yogi Ferrell" was a big deal in college basketball. The bluechip recruit immediately stepped into the starting lineup for Tom Crean's Indiana Hoosiers, helping to lead the team to a # 1 seed that first year on campus. But then a funny thing happened: the college star actually stayed in college. Ferrell would go on to play all 4 years (starting 137 of 137 games) for Indiana.
Through it, Ferrell developed the negative narrative that he was a "college player." Only 6'0" with average length and athleticism, he didn't have the look of a future pro. The NBA dismissed him, leading him to get undrafted. He's hung around since then, but his buzz has dwindled and dwindled. He played this past season as Sacramento's 3rd PG, only logging 11 minutes per game. Maybe they were right -- maybe he was never cut out for the NBA.
Then again... are we sure about that? Ferrell may not be the prototype, but he still has some virtues. Among those strengths: "basketball." He's a savvy, steady field general who has an above-average shot. He's hit 36.5% from three and 83.8% from the line over the course of his NBA career. He's not going to carry the load (14-4-4 per 36 minutes), but he's not going to rock the boat either. In fact, he only averages 1.5 turnovers per 36.
The concern with a player like Ferrell would be his limited size and athleticism, a combo that tends to translate into awful defense. But again, we haven't seen much evidence of that. Effort and basketball IQ can help overcome athletic weaknesses, and that appears to be the case with Ferrell. Limitations and all, Ferrell has registered only a -0.2 defensive box plus/minus.
Overall, this profile doesn't suggest any huge upside or any hidden "star" potential. But at the end of the day, this store isn't about star potential -- it's about value. Ferrell is a high-end third PG who can potentially be a true # 2. He'd make sense on a team like Orlando as a potential replacement for their own steady eddie backup D.J. Augustin (also a free agent.)
clearance rack
Gary Payton II, Washington Wizards, UFA, 27 years old
On paper, you may wonder why Gary Payton II wasn't a bigger deal entering the NBA Draft. After all, we're talking about the son of an NBA superstar who had been productive in college. In his last season at Oregon State, he averaged 16.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, 7.8 assists, and 2.5 steals (!) How the heck did someone with that pedigree go undrafted?
Unfortunately for Payton, two factors worked against him. For one, he was a poor shooter. Second, he was "over-aged." After spending some time in community college with Jeff Winger and Dean Pelton, Payton would be a 24-year-old rookie, a major knock against him and his perceived upside. That criticism may have proven apt; Payton has not improved as much as a young pup may have. His three-point shooting has sagged around 25-30%, a major problem in today's NBA. In general, he's a below-average offensive player, averaging just 10-6-4 per 36 minutes.
That said, Payton does have some virtues on the other end. He's not quite "The Glove" (basketball-reference even dubs his official nickname "The Mitten"), but he's definitely a good defender. He's 6'3" with a 6'8" wingspan, and has proven to have sticky hands himself. After averaging 2.8 steals over two years at OSU, he's at 2.2 per 36 in the NBA. He makes some sense when paired together with a ball-dominant SG like a James Harden or Devin Booker or Bradley Beal. No, we're not talking about as a starter, or even as a lead backup, but as a 3rd PG who can add a different skill set to a bench. In that context, he's worth a roster spot. Is a 13th man not worth reading about to you? Well then, get the F out of our store, ya snob! This is what the 99 Cent Store is all about.
featured item
E'Twaun Moore, New Orleans Pelicans, UFA, 31 years old
Collectively, NBA fans scratched their heads in confusion when the New Orleans Pelicans doled out $8.5M a year for anonymous E'Twaun Moore. After all, this was an unheralded a player, a R2 draft pick, a player who hadn't cracked 10 PPG in any of his first six seasons in the league. For all we knew, he was an NBA2k generated player.
Three years later, the contract doesn't look much better. Moore got buried this past season in a crowded Pelicans lineup, averaging only 18.8 minutes per game. He doesn't appear to be a part of the franchise's future plans at all. Moore will be tossed out into the darkness, left with no home, and perhaps no chance of matching that $8M salary ever again.
However, we have to be mindful as NBA fans not to lump in an "overpaid" player as a synonym for a "bad" player. Someone like Tobias Harris may not be worth his salary, but he's still a good starter. On a lower level, E'Twaun Moore may be the same way. Perhaps he's not worth $8-10M a year, but he's actually a solid addition to a rotation (even if the Pelicans squeezed him out.)
Moore's primary virtue is as a 3+D wing. At first glance he's not big enough for that role at 6'4", but he's aided by a pelican-like wingspan that stretches to near 6'10". He's not a great defender (now at age 31), but he's passable at both the SG and SF spots. Offensively, he'll help you as a spacer. He's hit on 39.0% of his threes for his career, and had actually gotten up to 42% and 43% the prior two seasons before he lost some rhythm this season.
That combination of skills makes Moore a good rotation player, and perhaps even a low-end starter on the right team. I wouldn't expect him to get "overpaid" again, but that's precisely what earns him a place in our store. He's a potential bargain buy right now.
possible fits
BKN. SG Joe Harris is an excellent shooter, but he's also a free agent. Will the Nets pony up to keep him around? Or will he be jettisoned like others from the pre KD-Kyrie era? If he is, then E'Twaun Moore makes sense as a cheap replacement.
MIL. The shooting guard spot is the biggest question mark for the Bucks, and this offseason may add to the murkiness if Wes Matthews (player option) or Pat Connaughton (UFA) leave town. E'Twaun Moore would be a sensible filler, and platoon with Donte DiVincenzo.
SA. Do Gregg Popovich and the Spurs want to contend for the playoffs in 2020-21? Do they want to blow it up? TBD. But if their intention is to go for that 8th seed again, Moore may be an upgrade on smaller Bryn Forbes, who struggles on the defensive end.
99 cent store
Shaquille Harrison, Chicago Bulls, UFA, 26 years old
Coaches and front offices love to tout that "defense is half the game!" That is, until it's time to actually pay a defensive player. Or draft a defensive player. Or even invite a defensive player onto the roster for a fully guaranteed contract.
Shaq Harrison has been dealing with that struggle for his entire professional career. Coming out of Tulsa, Harrison always had the chops defensively. He's long and agile enough to guard 1s and 2s and even some 3s. The trouble is: shooting was never his strong suit. Even as a senior, he only hit 19.5% from deep in the NCAA. Yikes. That's a surefire recipe to go "undrafted," which is exactly what Harrison did.
Since then, Harrison has been trying to improve his shot, the key for him to stick on an NBA roster. This past season, we've started to see some glimmers of progress there. He shot a career-high 38.1% from three, and a career-high 78.0% from the line. Now to be fair, those were both extremely small sample sizes (16-42 from three, 39-50 from the line), but it's still encouraging nonetheless. Because if Harrison can become a passable shooter, then his defensive abilities give him inherent value. He's legitimately one of the better perimeter defenders in the league. ESPN's real plus/minus listed his impact as a +2.5 on defense, which ranked as the 9th best player in the entire NBA (out of 503 qualifiers.) If a coaching staff feels confident in their player development and their shooting coaches, then Harrison would be an intriguing investment to make.
clearance rack
John Konchar, Memphis Grizzlies, 24 years old
Last year, I included Philadelphia PG-SG Shake Milton in this column, causing Sixers fans to riot and demand that I mention the team had the right to extend his two-way contract if they wanted. The team did, and Milton will prove to be a bargain for them over the next few years. Similarly, the Memphis Grizzlies will have that opportunity to keep two-way player John Konchar on the team should they want. But if they don't, I'd be eyeing Konchar as a possible roster addition.
No doubt, there are reasons to doubt John Konchar's NBA prospects. He comes from a school that's so small that they didn't even know what to name it (shifting a few times before settling on "Purdue Fort Wayne"). And at the risk of being politically incorrect, we should also mention that he's white. NBA GMs don't exactly sit up and salivate when they see an undersized (6'5") white wing player walk into the gym.
All that said, Konchar has been productive time and time again. As you'd expect, he can hit the three pointer. But what's most intriguing about Konchar is his playing strength. He may be only 6'5" (6'7" wingspan) but he plays much bigger than that. As a college senior, he grabbed 8.5 rebounds a game and blocked 0.9 shots to boot. He also converted 62.9% of his field goals in two-point range. It may have been low level competition, but he flat-out bullied his opponents.
Naturally you'd presume: there's no way he can do that in the pros! But so far, so good. Konchar put up similar numbers in the G-League this season, hitting 56.5% from the field and grabbing 8.3 rebounds per game (in 30 minutes a night.) From there, you'd presume: there's no way he can do that in the actual NBA! Well, in his 160 minutes of NBA action, Konchar shot 65.7% from the field and averaged 9.9 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Clearly, it's too early to take this as gospel. But eventually, we're going to have to presume something else: maybe this dude is actually good. If I ran an NBA team, I'd want to run that experiment with Konchar in our uniform and not someone else's.
99 cent store
Josh Jackson, Memphis Grizzlies, UFA, 23 years old
Like most of us on this sub, I have moments when I watch the NBA, watch the roster moves, watch the draft, and think: I could do that. Not play, of course, but perhaps build a team and winning roster. I've had a long and successful career in fantasy sports, so naturally a GM job would be the logical next step.
The 2017 NBA Draft was one of those moments for me. Prior to the draft, I wrote a few posts on here, explaining why consensus top prospect Markelle Fultz wouldn't have been my personal # 1 pick. Clearly, I am a genius operating on a higher plane than the Bryan Colangelos of the world. Unfortunately, the alternative prospect that I advocated for wasn't Jayson Tatum. Or De'Aaron Fox. Or even Lonzo Ball. Instead, I thought the # 1 prospect in the class was... Josh Jackson. Whoops. Turns out, Jackson became an even bigger bust than Fultz (for his original team), causing the Phoenix Suns to dump him and wash their hands clean. Turns out: I have no clue what I'm talking about after all.
But while I may have given up on my hidden genius, I'm still not ready to give up on Josh Jackson as a player. After all, no one expected Jackson to be a finished product. Back at Kansas, his shot looked funky and in need of an overhaul. Still, he had athleticism, defensive tenacity, and flashed some ball skills and passing ability. All in all, I thought he may develop into a player in the mold of a Jimmy Butler in time.
Unfortunately, his NBA career stumbled out of the gates. If you're going to be the next Jimmy Butler, you need to work at it. Jimmy Butler may be a polarizing media presence, but he's undoubtedly a hard worker. In contrast, Josh Jackson had some issues off the court that made you doubt his dedication. His shooting hadn't improved much either. Even now, he hit on only 31.9% of his threes (29.8% career.)
Still, if you're a stubborn Jackson optimist like I am, then you can see some flashes of progress here. After being humbled by a trip to the G-League and a trade to Memphis, Jackson has started to be effective again. This past season for the Grizzlies, he averaged 19.0 PPG, 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals, and 0.9 blocks per 36 minutes. He's never going to be Kawhi Leonard as a shooter, but there are ways he can be effective offensively. He converted 77.5% of his field goals inside (0-3 feet), which was up from 55% in the past, showing how improved strength and bulk may aid his game. He also shot 34.8% on corner threes -- still below-average, but better than before.
So where do we go from here? What can Josh Jackson become? If he continues to work on his craft without any problems behind the scenes, he looks like a good prospect again. After all, this is a kid who's still 23 (younger than rookie teammate Brandon Clarke.) Maybe it's too optimistic to think he can be the next Jimmy Butler, but maybe he can be a solid starter in the mold of a young Wilson Chandler. There's still some risk involved here, but it's worth an investment and gamble in the right circumstance (and for the right price.)
possible fits
MEM. Jackson staying in Memphis is the most likely scenario. While the Grizzlies are in the 8th seed right now, they're still a young team. Ja Morant is 20. Jaren Jackson in 20. Jackson can fit into their timeline. The only question here is whether they already have a similar (and better) player in house in Justise Winslow.
CLE. The Memphis Grizzlies are a good young team. The Cavs are a bad young team. They need to add some more talent, especially at the wing. In theory, Jackson would be a nice complement to their undersized bomber guards like Darius Garland and Collin Sexton.
CHA. The Hornets need to find a star, somehow, some way. It's unlikely Josh Jackson becomes that star, but it's worth a shot. He's comparable to current forward Miles Bridges in terms of his worth/upside.
Daulton Hommes, San Antonio Spurs, 23 years old
Marial Shayok, Philadelphia 76ers, 24 years old
NBA general managers have a lot in common with Chris D'Elia: they like 'em young! They tend to dismiss college veterans as "over-aged" and salivate over teenagers instead. And to be fair, there's some logic there. A 22 or 23-year-old rookie likely doesn't have as much upside as a 19 or 20 year old. At the same time, not every NBA players needs to ooze with Giannis Antetokounmpo upside. Sometimes, you set the bar lower; you're just looking for a serviceable role player.
To my eye, Philadelphia's Marial Shayok is trending in that direction. He spent 5 years at college (gross!) -- the first 3 at Virginia, before transferring and playing for Iowa State in 2018-19. That last season, Shayok looked solid -- averaging 18.7 PPG with great shooting splits (50-39-88). The 6'6" wing also sported a 7'0" wingspan, which naturally makes you consider him as a potential 3+D prospect.
Still, the "age" issue prevented Shayok from going high -- landing at pick # 54 last season and earning only a two-way deal. That leverage puts the Sixers in the catbird seat here; they can bring Shayok back on a team-friendly deal, and likely will do just that after he played very well in the G-League. In fact, he averaged 27-7-5 per 36 minutes, hitting 36% from three and 89% from the line. Teams don't just let players like that go, especially when their depth is an issue already. However, if the Sixers decide to cast him aside, then Shayok should wash ashore on another team in a hurry.
Marvin Williams, Milwaukee Bucks, UFA, 34 years old
Chris Boucher, Toronto Raptors, RFA, 27 years old
Frank Kaminsky, Phoenix Suns, 27 years old
Bonzie Colson, 24 years old
Back in college at Notre Dame, Bonzie Colson felt like an anomaly. Here was a stocky 6'5" player who largely played as a smallball 5. He utilized his strength and wingspan (7'0") to bully opponents, averaging 19.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks as a senior.
Still... a 6'5" PF/C? You didn't play like that in the NBA.
Or do you...? The Houston Rockets are changing the paradigm with heavy minutes for P.J. Tucker (also 6'5") at center. Zion Williamson (6'6") will likely play a good amount of center as well for New Orleans. It may not ever be the norm, but it's not a ridiculous concept anymore. If you're an NBA team, it makes sense to at least have a lineup like that in your back pocket to break out in case of emergency.
Colson can capably fill that role (on the back-end of a roster) due to his natural savvy and his passable shooting (34% from 3 in the G-League.) Better still, he'd be dirt-cheap after some G-League and overseas stints. In fact, he may not cost much guaranteed money at all. If he shows up at camp in good shape, then there's a chance he sticks around. And let's be honest, the NBA -- and all of our lives -- are better off when there's at least one Bonzi/e around.
Nerlens Noel, Oklahoma City Thunder, 26 years old
Jakob Poelte, Mason Plumlee
Ekpe Udoh, 33 years old
Ivan Rabb, 23 years old
Langston Galloway, Detroit Pistons, UFA, 28 years old
submitted by ZandrickEllison to romoadventureclub [link] [comments]

Today's Pre-Market Movers & News [Monday, January 27th, 2020]

Good morning traders and investors of the smallstreetbets sub! Welcome to the new trading week and a fresh start! Here are your pre-market news this AM-

Today's Top Headlines for Monday, January 27th, 2020

STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:

(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)

LAST WEEK'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR LAST WEEK'S MARKET MAP!)

TODAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)

LAST WEEK'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR LAST WEEK'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)

THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

($AAPL $TSLA $AMD $AMZN $MSFT $FB $BA $GE $MA $T $V $SBUX $PYPL $MCD $LMT $MMM $DHI $PFE $UTX $KO $UPS $S $NURO $HMST $VZ $HCA $XLNX $ARNC $XOM $CAT $BX $PGR $LRCX $GD $PHM $NVR $PII $SALT $BIIB $NOW $ANTM $NUE $ALK $PLUG $MPC)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

($DHI $NURO $HMST $S $ARNC $NVR $SALT $BMRC $RDY $BOH $OPB $ARLP $PROV $NWBI)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS AFTERNOON'S POST-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

()
([CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!]())
T.B.A.

EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)
NONE.

FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!)
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #4!)

FRIDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)

TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS:

  • SPY
  • NNVC
  • BABA
  • QQQ
  • SPCE
  • TVIX
  • APT
  • ABBV
  • DJIA
  • DIA

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

(source: cnbc.com)
D.R. Horton (DHI) – The homebuilder earned $1.16 per share for its fiscal first quarter, beating the consensus estimate of 92 cents a share. Revenue also topped forecasts. New orders were up 19% on a volume basis and up 22% in value. The company also raised the upper end of its full-year home sales forecast.

STOCK SYMBOL: DHI

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Arconic (ARNC) – Arconic missed estimates by a penny a share, with adjusted quarterly earnings of 53 cents per share. Revenue came in shy of Wall Street predictions. The maker of engineered metals products saw a 1% improvement in organic revenue on factors like favorable pricing and raw materials costs, partially offset by some weakness in its automotive and commercial transportation markets. Arconic also said it would complete its planned split of its aerospace components and aluminum rolling businesses into two companies on April 1.

STOCK SYMBOL: ARNC

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Travel-related stocks – These are likely to be hit once again as coronavirus cases mount – including major airlines like United Airlines (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Southwest (LUV), and cruise line operators like Royal Caribbean (RCL), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), and Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL). Casino stocks like Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) are also being hit.

STOCK SYMBOL: UAL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Starbucks (SBUX) – Starbucks has temporarily closed all its shots in China’s Hubei province and suspended delivery services, amid health concerns for customers and employees amid the spread of the coronavirus.

STOCK SYMBOL: SBUX

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Estee Lauder (EL) – Oppenheimer downgraded the cosmetics maker to “perform” from “outperform.” The firm cited the stock’s premium valuation coupled with concerns about the coronavirus impact on a company that has seen China represent a key driver of recent growth.

STOCK SYMBOL: EL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Boeing (BA) – Boeing completed a successful maiden voyage of its 777-X jet over the weekend, a respite for the jet maker amid the ongoing grounding of its 737 Max jet.

STOCK SYMBOL: BA

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
AbbVie (ABBV) – AbbVie sold a number of assets to Nestle and AstraZeneca (AZN), as it seeks to win regulatory approval for its $63 billion acquisition of drugmaker Allergan (AGN).

STOCK SYMBOL: ABBV

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) – Fiat Chrysler filed court motions Friday to dismiss a lawsuit filed by rival automaker General Motors (GM). Fiat Chrysler said GM does not have sufficient grounds to bring a racketeering case that alleges bribery of union officials.

STOCK SYMBOL: FCAU

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Kraft Heinz (KHC) – Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio told The Wall Street Journal that he wants to food maker to make fewer but bigger bets on new products, as its older brands suffer a sales decline.

STOCK SYMBOL: KHC

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Alphabet (GOOGL) – State attorneys general will meet with Justice Department officials to share investigative material involving Google, according to The Wall Street Journal.

STOCK SYMBOL: GOOGL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Winnebago Industries (WGO) – The RV maker was rated “overweight” in new coverage at KeyBanc, which sees recreational vehicle shipments stronger than consensus for 2020 and is also optimistic about the increasing benefits of Winnebago’s 2016 acquisition of towable vehicle maker Grand Design.

STOCK SYMBOL: WGO

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

DISCUSS!

What is on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at smallstreetbets?

I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Monday, January 27th, 2020! :)

submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Today's Pre-Market Movers & News [Monday, January 27th, 2020]

Good morning traders and investors of the stocks sub! Welcome to the new trading week and a fresh start! Here are your pre-market news this AM-

Today's Top Headlines for Monday, January 27th, 2020

STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:

(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)

LAST WEEK'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR LAST WEEK'S MARKET MAP!)

TODAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)

LAST WEEK'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR LAST WEEK'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)

THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

($AAPL $TSLA $AMD $AMZN $MSFT $FB $BA $GE $MA $T $V $SBUX $PYPL $MCD $LMT $MMM $DHI $PFE $UTX $KO $UPS $S $NURO $HMST $VZ $HCA $XLNX $ARNC $XOM $CAT $BX $PGR $LRCX $GD $PHM $NVR $PII $SALT $BIIB $NOW $ANTM $NUE $ALK $PLUG $MPC)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

($DHI $NURO $HMST $S $ARNC $NVR $SALT $BMRC $RDY $BOH $OPB $ARLP $PROV $NWBI)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS AFTERNOON'S POST-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

()
([CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!]())
T.B.A.

EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)
NONE.

FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!)
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #4!)

FRIDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)

TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS:

  • SPY
  • NNVC
  • BABA
  • QQQ
  • SPCE
  • TVIX
  • APT
  • ABBV
  • DJIA
  • DIA

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

(source: cnbc.com)
D.R. Horton (DHI) – The homebuilder earned $1.16 per share for its fiscal first quarter, beating the consensus estimate of 92 cents a share. Revenue also topped forecasts. New orders were up 19% on a volume basis and up 22% in value. The company also raised the upper end of its full-year home sales forecast.

STOCK SYMBOL: DHI

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Arconic (ARNC) – Arconic missed estimates by a penny a share, with adjusted quarterly earnings of 53 cents per share. Revenue came in shy of Wall Street predictions. The maker of engineered metals products saw a 1% improvement in organic revenue on factors like favorable pricing and raw materials costs, partially offset by some weakness in its automotive and commercial transportation markets. Arconic also said it would complete its planned split of its aerospace components and aluminum rolling businesses into two companies on April 1.

STOCK SYMBOL: ARNC

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Travel-related stocks – These are likely to be hit once again as coronavirus cases mount – including major airlines like United Airlines (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Southwest (LUV), and cruise line operators like Royal Caribbean (RCL), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), and Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL). Casino stocks like Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) are also being hit.

STOCK SYMBOL: UAL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Starbucks (SBUX) – Starbucks has temporarily closed all its shots in China’s Hubei province and suspended delivery services, amid health concerns for customers and employees amid the spread of the coronavirus.

STOCK SYMBOL: SBUX

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Estee Lauder (EL) – Oppenheimer downgraded the cosmetics maker to “perform” from “outperform.” The firm cited the stock’s premium valuation coupled with concerns about the coronavirus impact on a company that has seen China represent a key driver of recent growth.

STOCK SYMBOL: EL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Boeing (BA) – Boeing completed a successful maiden voyage of its 777-X jet over the weekend, a respite for the jet maker amid the ongoing grounding of its 737 Max jet.

STOCK SYMBOL: BA

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
AbbVie (ABBV) – AbbVie sold a number of assets to Nestle and AstraZeneca (AZN), as it seeks to win regulatory approval for its $63 billion acquisition of drugmaker Allergan (AGN).

STOCK SYMBOL: ABBV

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) – Fiat Chrysler filed court motions Friday to dismiss a lawsuit filed by rival automaker General Motors (GM). Fiat Chrysler said GM does not have sufficient grounds to bring a racketeering case that alleges bribery of union officials.

STOCK SYMBOL: FCAU

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Kraft Heinz (KHC) – Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio told The Wall Street Journal that he wants to food maker to make fewer but bigger bets on new products, as its older brands suffer a sales decline.

STOCK SYMBOL: KHC

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Alphabet (GOOGL) – State attorneys general will meet with Justice Department officials to share investigative material involving Google, according to The Wall Street Journal.

STOCK SYMBOL: GOOGL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Winnebago Industries (WGO) – The RV maker was rated “overweight” in new coverage at KeyBanc, which sees recreational vehicle shipments stronger than consensus for 2020 and is also optimistic about the increasing benefits of Winnebago’s 2016 acquisition of towable vehicle maker Grand Design.

STOCK SYMBOL: WGO

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

DISCUSS!

What is on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at stocks?

I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Monday, January 27th, 2020! :)

submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

Week 5 - Matchup Strategy Guide (Part 1) - DFA

What’s up fellow fantasy connoisseurs, welcome to Week 5 of DFA’s matchup strategy guide (Part 1). We decided to try out a different format this week and would appreciate any and all feedback on it. Thanks for reading and make sure to check out Part 2 which is dropping tomorrow with the rest of the games.
Additionally, we dropped our first Fantasy Basketball article a couple days ago and will be continuing to produce content for NBA fantasy as we gear up for draft season. Check it out here: https://www.designatedforassessment.com/
Glossary:
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
ATS= Against the spread

New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5)

Jets ATS: 1-2-0 Eagles ATS: 1-3-0
Projected Team Totals: Jets 15.25 Eagles 28.75

Jets

Opp (PHI) Pass DVOA: #23
Opp (PHI) Run DVOA: #5
Injuries to watch DEF (PHI): CB Avonte Maddox, CB Ronald Darby, DT Tim Jernigan
Injuries to watch OFF (NYJ): QB Sam Darnold, OL Kelechi Osemele
Key WCB matchups: No shadow matchups projected, Injured PHI secondary (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Robbie Anderson (19%), Jamison Crowder (30%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 3: Le’Veon Bell (100%, 22, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Jet’s were hoping to rest their Week 5 hopes on the shoulders (or more accurately the spleen) of Sam Darnold, but he has been officially ruled out. With him out, both Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder will be risky plays despite the mess that is the Eagles secondary currently. The Eagles have been shredded by opposing receivers (most FPPG to opposing WRs), and may be without several starters as well. With Luke Falk forced to make another start, all passing options should probably be avoided, even in a dream matchup. There is hope for negative game script, which could add volume, but Falk simply can’t be trusted to reliably get the ball to his weapons at this point. The Matchup in Week 3 against NE may have made things look bleaker than they are, but starting either Anderson or Crowder this week requires a significant leap of faith. Chris Herndon (stash) returns in Week 6, so if he is on your wire makes sure to change that immediately.
RB Breakdown
Le’Veon Bell (downgrade standard) is one of the few true workhorses in the NFL this year, playing 100% of snaps in 2 out of 3 games the Jets have played this year. You can disagree with Adam Gase as a coach and play-caller all you want, but he is giving Bell all the run he can handle. This kind of workload may not be sustainable for an entire season, but in the meantime Bell will continue to be a volume based RB2 that gets an upgrade in PPR due to his pass game usage. The PHI defense has been elite against the run (3rd fewest rushing yards allowed), but Bell could very likely be the leading receiver for the Jets this weekend, so his value is relatively safe regardless of rushing yards. With Luke Falk under center again, Bell may not clear 30 rushing yards, but will likely rack up short receptions and should be able to clear 10-12 points easily in any PPR format.

Eagles

Opp (NYJ) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (NYJ) Run DVOA: #11
Injuries to Watch DEF (NYJ): LB CJ Mosley, LB Jordan Jenkins, DL Quinnen Williams
Injuries to Watch OFF (PHI): WR Desean Jackson
Key WCB matchups: None
Fantasy Relevant Target Share %’s: Zach Ertz (25%) Alshon Jeffery (24%) Desean Jackson (23%) Nelson Agholor (19%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: Jordan Howard (54%, 18, 4) Miles Sanders (35%, 11, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Carson Wentz has been a top 5 fantasy QB to this point, and a matchup against the Jets doesn’t do much if anything to downgrade his every week starter status. Likely without Desean Jackson again this week, Wentz will rely heavily on Zach Ertz (upgrade) to lead the way, with **Alshon Jeffery (upgrade) getting a fair amount of looks as well. Nelson Agholor (downgrade) was a huge disappointment last week, and because of his reliance on volume he makes for a risky start in a game the Eagles may win handily. The Jets have been hit hard by #1 receivers this year, so owners can view Alshon as a solid WR2 this week, and Ertz is an obvious TE1. Agholor is a WR4 with a low floor but a decent ceiling due to his TD upside. With Sam Darnold out this week, the chance of positive game flow rises significantly, so the Eagles may not have a high volume of throws.
RB Breakdown
Jordan Howard (upgrade) dominated snaps and touches last week, much to the surprise of fantasy owners everywhere. His 3 TDs gave him one of the better fantasy lines of the week, but very few were able to reap the rewards (4% started). This week sets up as another good spot for Howard. Despite the Jets having a solid rush defense, the likely positive game flow should give Howard a solid volume of carries and a high chance of reaching the end zone. He’s an RB2 in standard leagues, with a slight downgrade in PPR leagues due to his lack of involvement in the passing game (outside of week 4). Miles Sanders continued to see less than half the snaps and RB touches, but still turned in a respectable performance with 72 rushing yards. Until we see him more involved, especially in the passing game (only one game with 10+ receiving yards) he is not a recommended start outside of deeper leagues. Consider him a RB3/4 with upside this week.
Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Jets 10

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Jaguars ATS: 3-1-0 Panthers ATS: 2-2-0
Projected Team Totals: Jaguars 18.75 Panthers 22.5

Jaguars

Opp (CAR) Pass DVOA: #4
Opp (CAR) Run DVOA: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (CAR): DE Brian Burns, S Eric Reid, CB Donte Jackson
Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX): QB Gardner Minshew WR Marquise Lee
Key WCB matchups: D.J. Chark vs. James Bradberry (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s: D.J. Chark (20%), Dede Westbrook (20%), Leonard Fournette (18%), Chris Conley (15%), James O’Shaughnessy (12%), Geoff Swaim (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: Leonard Fournette (83%, 31, 2), Ryquell Armstead (17%, 9, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown:
Gardnew Minshew (QB2) is making a strong case for rookie of the year, leading the Jaguars to a 2-1 record as a full-time starter. His numbers from a fantasy perspective aren’t quite there yet for 1QB leagues, and he remains an option for deeper leagues or 2QB only. Minshew continues to feed D.J. Chark (downgrade), but against a good Panthers secondary and a date with James Bradberry, he’s only a WR3 with upside. Dede Westbrook continues his fantasy disappointment campaign, and he’s a recommended fade this week as a WR4 in tough matchup. Chris Conley should not be in lineups, and as long as James O’Shaughnessy and Geoff Swaim continue to split work at tight end, neither will be recommended options.
RB Breakdown:
Leonard Fournette (upgrade) finally broke out last week in a huge way, turning his 29 carries into 225 scoreless yards. The volume has been there all season and Week 5 looks to be no different. Against one of the league's best pass defenses, the Jaguars will look to attack on the ground. Consider Fournette a volume based RB1 who is a good bet to find pay dirt this week.

Panthers

Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA: #18
Opp (JAX) Run DVOA: #23
Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX): CB Jalen Ramsey, DE Lerentee McCray
Injuries to Watch OFF (CAR): None
Key WCB matchups: None. Keep an eye if Jalen Ramsey (Q) is active. If he is unable to go upgrade Curtis Samuel.
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Christian McCaffery (21%), D.J. Moore (21%), Curtis Samuel (21%), Greg Olsen (19%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: Christian McCaffery (87%, 37, 10), Alex Armah (13%, 0, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown:
Kyle Allen is now 2-0 as a starter and frankly has looked better than Cam Newton. This may be due to Cam’s injury, but he’s never been an accurate downfield passer and has relied on his running in the past. It remains to be seen when he comes back if that will still be part of his game. Curtis Samuel (upgrade) is the preferred WR play moving forward in the Kyle Allen era as he continues to rack up targets, at some point he’s going to start coming down with the deep ball as well. If CB Jalen Ramsey is unable to go (he’s looking doubtful), then Samuel will draw CB Tre Herndon who was roasted by the Broncos last week (Rotoworld). D.J. Moore has been largely a disappointment the last few weeks, only drawing 7 targets with Kyle Allen in control. There is good news however, the Jacksonville defense is not as daunting as years past - giving up 27.2 FPPG to receivers. Despite Moore being relegated to a role player rather than the featured reciever many thought he would be in 2019, Week 5 is a solid spot to get production from him - treat him as a WR3 with upside. Greg Olsen fell back to Earth last week after destroying the Cardinals the week before. He’s a low-end TE1.
RB Breakdown:
At this point, the better question to ask is, “what can’t Christian McCaffery do?”. Handling 37 touches last week was super human and he’s got an outside chance to get his goal of 2000 rushing and receiving yards this year - he already has accumulated 411 yards rushing and 218 receiving. Obviously an RB1.
Score Prediction: Panthers 20, Jaguars 17

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) at New York Giants

Vikings ATS: 2-2-0 Giants ATS: 2-2-0
Projected Team Totals: Vikings 24 Giants 19.5
Vikings
Opp (NYG) Pass DVOA: #20
Opp (NYG) Run DVOA: #16
Injuries to Watch DEF (NYG): LB Alec Ogletree
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): G Josh Kline
Key WCB matchups: Stefon Diggs vs. Janoris Jenkins (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Adam Thielen (22%), Stefon Diggs (19%), Dalvin Cook (18%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: Dalvin Cook (79%, 20, 8) All other RBs (21%, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown:
The drama unfolding in Minnesota involving Kirk Cousins, Stefon Diggs (upgrade) and Adam Thielen (upgrade) came to a head after their Week 4 loss to the Bears. Cousins finished the game 27/36 passing for a measly 233 yards and Diggs was visibly frustrated on the sideline. Both Thielin and Diggs mentioned their quarterback when speaking to the media this week, and Diggs even addressed the trade talk, saying “there’s truth to all rumors”. It seems unlikely the star wideout is dealt considering the Vikings barely have 3 receivers on the roster, plus Diggs’ newly inked deal worth 81 million is a massive obstruction for any potential deal. More likely than not, the “squeaky wheel” treatment is in play for the Vikings receivers this week against the Giants poor secondary - they are giving up 30.3 FPPG to WRs. Treat both as skeptical WR2s with upside, knowing that this passing game needs to get right or it appears the team is headed for a drama filled season. Neither tight end is in play for fantasy right now due to the Vikings 31st ranked, anemic passing attack. Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. can be left on the wire for now.
RB Breakdown:
Promising rookie Alexander Mattison was largely game-scripted out last week, but remains the top handcuff in fantasy football. There isn’t much to be excited about for standalone flex value however. Dalvin Cook remains an RB1 stud, but owners may be disappointed by usage this week if the Vikings opt to air it out to appease their unhappy receivers.

Giants

Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA: #16
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA: #4
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): CB Mackensie Alexander S Anthony Harris
Injuries to Watch OFF (NYG): RB Saquon Barkley
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Evan Engram (23%), Sterling Shepard (22%), Saquon Barkley (14%) Wayne Gallman (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: Wayne Gallman (53%, 24, 7) Jonathan Hilliman (31%, 10, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown:
The Redskins seem to make any team going up against them look amazing, and the Giants were no exception last week. Unfortunately for Daniel Jones (downgrade) owners, the Redskins offense put up zero fight leading to a lackluster fantasy day. Even worse, a matchup against the Vikings vaunted defense is on-deck. It isn’t all bad however, as Golden Tate (upgrade PPR) returns from suspension. Jones can be treated as a low-end volume based QB2 in a bad matchup, and Sterling Shepard (downgrade) and Tate can be treated as WR3s. This will be the first real test for Jones and due to the uncertainty of the productivity of this offense against a good defense, most players should be faded if possible. Evan Engram (downgrade) remains a TE1 and most owners will have no choice but to start him. The Vikings are middle of the pack at defending TEs and Engram is clearly Jones’ #1 option, but expectations should be tempered slightly.
RB Breakdown:
Giants coach Pat Shurmur refuses to rule Saquon Barkley out, which would be a miraculous recovery if he were to play, considering the original 4-8 week timeline given. It seems ridiculous that the Giants would risk Barkley’s health in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, but here we are. At the moment, Barkley should be treated as doubtful, with the expectation that Wayne Gallman (downgrade) will handle the bulk of the workload with Jonathan Hilliman mixing in. Gallman is no more than a low-end RB2 going against one of the league's best rushing defenses and will be extremely touchdown dependent to return value this week.
Score Prediction: Vikings 31, Giants 10

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (-5)

Falcons ATS: 1-3-0 Texans ATS: 2-2-0
Projected Team Totals: Falcons 22 Texans 27

Falcons

Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: #10
Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (ATL): Kaleb McGary
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Julio Jones (21%), Austin Hooper (19%), Mohamed Sanu (18%) Calvin Ridley (13%) Devonta Freeman (12%).
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: Devonta Freeman (62%, 20, 9), Ito Smith (38%, 4, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Falcons went flat in a bad loss to the Titans last week, but Matt Ryan managed to salvage a decent fantasy line. Ryan is one of many QBs who is better at home than on the road, and the Texans defense is fresh off holding Kyle Allen to 232 yards 0 TDs and 3 fumbles. Still, the fact that the Falcons DEF is crumbling due to injuries and poor play, Ryan’s volume and weapons keep him firmly in the middle of the QB1 pack. Julio Jones (upgrade) has one of the better matchups against the Texans mid level secondary, and looks primed for a bounce back week after being held down by the Colts last week. Calvin Ridley (upgrade standard) has disappointed the past two weeks, and is back to his inconsistent ways of last season. He makes one or two chunk plays every week, but the emergence of Hooper and the continued presence of Mohamed Sanu’s 18% target share have limited Ridley to boom-bust WR3/4 status. This has potential to be a boom game in what projects to be a high scoring affair, so we like Ridley as more of a mid to high WR3 this week, especially in non-PPR leagues. Just be aware the floor is lower than expected. Austin Hooper has been elite in all but one game this year, and has earned every week set and forget TE1 status at this point. Houston is third stingiest against tight ends, so this may not be a boom week for Hooper. But his 19% target share and status as Ryan’s main intermediate target keep his floor higher than all but a select few TEs.
RB Breakdown
The Falcons have struggled to establish the run through four weeks, and although some of that belongs on the O-Line and scheme, Devonta Freeman (downgrade standard) has failed to be a difference maker so far. His involvement in the passing game has kept him in flex territory, but not much more. In a week that the Falcons will likely need to throw a lot, Freeman should get at least a few catches, but would need to break a long play or hit his first TD of the year to really pay off. The Texans have been strong against the run but have given up the most receptions to opposing RBs so far. Freeman is a solid flex in PPR leagues, but has a risky floor in standard leagues and can be benched if you have quality alternative options. Ito Smith is only a low end handcuff at this point.

Texans

Opp (ATL) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (ATL) Run DVOA: #7
Injuries to Watch DEF (ATL): None. S Keanu Neal (achilles) out for season
Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU): Kenny Stills (limited thursday)
Key WCB matchups: None, Desmond Trufant only occasionally shadows #1 WRs (Rotoworld).
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): DeAndre Hopkins (28%), Will Fuller (18%), Kenny Stills (11%), Keke Coutee (11%), Duke Johnson (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: Carlos Hyde (48%, 16, 5), Duke Johnson (65%, 8, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Texans lost a defensive battle against Carolina last week, and the passing game never got off the tarmac. Deshaun Watson (upgrade) had only 160 passing yards last week, but surprisingly that wasn’t his lowest total of the season (159 in week 2), and his reverse home/road splits are an interesting trend to monitor. Back at home again this week, odds are this trend snaps in a big way against a Falcons defense that is starting to crumble and is without arguably their most important player yet again (Neal). Watson should be considered a high end QB1 this week. DeAndre Hopkins (upgrade) is also due for a big bounce back, and owners who managed to buy low (please don’t be the guy that sold Hopkins this week) should get immediate dividends this week. Desmond Trufant spent a few snaps shadowing AJ Brown last week, but got burned at least once and hasn’t been an elite CB this year (29th CB PFF). Will Fuller (upgrade) was close on at least one deep bomb that just missed, and for owners who’ve hit on a few scratch it’s of late should consider throwing him into lineups again this week. His floor is scary low, especially in PPR, but his ceiling is week-winning. If there were a week for his air yards (15th most in NFL) to pay off, this week’s matchup against the Falcons is it. Kenny Stills is questionable with a soft tissue injury, so he should be avoided at all costs even if he does suit up. Keke Coutee (stash) would stand to gain a bit if Stills misses, but he’s an end of bench stash not a starter. Darren Fells and Jordin Akins each had one week of relevance, but can be ignored in all leagues moving forward.
RB Breakdown
The Texans struggles last week led to mostly an abandonment of the run. Carlos Hyde once again dominated the carries, but Duke Johnson (downgrade) finally out-snapped him. Johnson ranks highly in many efficiency stats, but his lack of touches keep him in the “screw it, why not” RB3/4 territory. Stills’ injury might open up some snaps out wide for Johnson, so he remains a decent stash in case he starts getting more work. Hyde could be a decent play this week in potential positive gamescript and punching in a short rushing TD is definitely possible, but he’s relegated to low end flex territory especially in PPR leagues. We project about 8-12 points for Hyde, and about 6-10 points for Duke. Neither has a high ceiling as long as they’re both getting about the same amount of snaps.
Score Prediction: Texans 31, Falcons 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3)

Buccaneers ATS: 2-2-0 Saints ATS: 2-2-0
Projected Team Totals: Buccaneers 22 Saints 25

Buccaneers

Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #15
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO): DE Trey Hendrickson (DNP, Q), Cam Jordan (Limited, likely to play).
Injuries to Watch OFF (TB): WR Chris Godwin (Limited, likely to play)
Key WCB matchups: Marshon Lattimore vs. Mike Evans projected shadow (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Mike Evans (25%), Chris Godwin (24%), OJ Howard (9%), Ronald Jones (2%).
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: Ronald Jones (49%, 20, 1) Peyton Barber (26%, 9, 1).
QB/WTE Breakdown:
It appears we may finally have seen a breakthrough from Jameis Winston (upgrade). For the first time in his career he was able to post 350+ passing yards, 3+ TDs and 110+ passer rating in back to back weeks (NFL.com). Winston has historically struggled a bit against New Orleans in his career, but the Saints this year have given up the 2nd most FPPG to opposing QBs, so this isn’t an intimidating spot. Last week, New Orleans held Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense in check, but Winston has two legitimate #1 WRs in his arsenal and the Bucs are set up to throw a lot with the configuration of this team. Consider Winston a top 12 option this week, but keep in mind he is always a threat for a turnover filled disappointment. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both back end WR1s at this point, and either is capable of going off for a week winning performance. Marshon Lattimore kept Amari Cooper on an island last week, but Evans is a different type of receiver that can win in a multitude of ways. Godwin will continue to eat in the slot in the “Larry Fitzgerald” role for Bruce Arians. OJ Howard (downgrade) continues to disappoint, receiving only 9% target share so far this year. He has made some chunk plays, but failed to get over 40 yards in a game that Winston threw for almost 400. Howard is capable of breaking a big play at any time, but until we see more involvement, he’ll be on the TE1/2 borderline that can be benched/dropped depending on league size and depth. Just don’t be surprised if he has one or two big games later this year that keep you holding on to his upside.
RB Breakdown:
The Buccaneers appear to be trusting Ronald Jones (downgrade) more and more of late, and he had his best game as a pro in Week 4. The snap count and touch discrepancy give Jones the edge as a flex option over Peyton Barber (drop) but we can’t yet completely trust Jones’ workload. For this week, expect both to be involved but Jones to lead the way. The Saints give up the 4th fewest FPPG to opposing RBs and just held Zeke Elliot 2ypc on 18 carries last week. Jones would need to make a big play in the pass game or score a rush TD to be worth a start outside deeper leagues. This might be a wait and see scenario for one more week, unless you are thin due to the byes.

Saints

Opp (TB) Pass DVOA: #15
Opp (TB) Run DVOA: #1
Injuries to Watch DEF (TB): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO): QB Drew Brees (out)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Michael Thomas (31%), Alvin Kamara (18%), Ted Ginn (17%), Jared Cook (13%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: Alvin Kamara (75%, 20, 3), Latavius Murray (25%, 5, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown:
The Saints continue to win in the absence of Drew Brees who is expected to return at some point later in the season. Teddy Bridgewater’s reluctance to throw the ball vertically has hurt the outlook of the entire offense - so far just 2.3% of Bridgewater’s passes have travelled further than 20 yards in the air (Rotoworld). Michael Thomas (upgrade PPR) is becoming more of a high-end WR2 than a sure-fire WR1 in the new look offense, and Ted Ginn and the other wideouts shouldn’t be owned or considered. Jared Cook is an afterthought and shouldn’t be near any lineups either. With Bridgewater under center he has produced lines of 1-7-0 and 3-21-0. Yuck. Stay away.
RB Breakdown:
Alvin Kamara is slowly becoming another casualty of the Brees injury, producing one solid fantasy day against Seattle and then bottoming out against Dallas last week with 89 scoreless yards. Tampa Bay surprisingly boasts the top-ranked run defense through four weeks, but Kamara’s involvement in the short passing game should mitigate any loss of rushing production. Fire him up as an RB1 per usual. Latavius Murray (stash) is a drop candidate at this point, and should struggle to find any rushing room in his limited touches with Teddy checkdown in control. However, when Brees returns, Murray could become usable again for late season and fantasy playoffs. If you need to cut bait, no issues with it, but Murray does have some sneaky stash appeal.

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Bills ATS: 3-1-0 Titans ATS: 2-2-0
Projected Team Totals: Bills 17.75 Titans 20.75

Bills

Opp (TEN) Pass DVOA: #12
Opp (TEN) Run DVOA: #13
Injuries to Watch DEF (TEN): OLB Cameron Wake
Injuries to Watch OFF (BUF): QB Josh Allen, RB Devin Singletary, FB Pat DiMarco
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Cole Beasley (24%), John Brown (23%), Zay Jones (12%), Dawson Knox (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: TJ Yeldon (54%, 4, 0), Frank Gore (46%, 17, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown:
The Buffalo Bills may have the best defense in 2019, limiting the GOAT Tom Brady last week to just 17 points and an atrocious fantasy line. Josh Allen (downgrade) took a vicious hit against the Patriots putting him into the concussion protocol and if he is unable to go, Matt Barkley is a downgrade for the entire offense. Allen as of writing this, is apparently far enough along in his recovery to possibly play Sunday, so keep an eye on the situation. The matchup however, is not a good one. This game has easily the lowest projected point total of the week and should be avoided if possible from a fantasy perspective. John Brown (downgrade) continues to churn out low-end fantasy value, as does Cole Beasley (upgrade PPR), but both are preferred fades due to the injury to Allen and the matchup. Rookie tight end Dawson Knox continues to see increased snap rates every week (38,41,44,54) and is a player to keep an eye on if he hasn’t already been scooped up in your league. The Titans have given up 10.5 FPPG to tight ends through four weeks and Knox is a player to consider this week if you are weak at tight end.
RB Breakdown:
With rookie Devin Singletary sitting last week due to a hamstring injury, the ageless Frank Gore (downgrade) was given the rushing workload while TJ Yeldon handled the passing work. Reports are emerging that Singletary may be held out again as a precaution and his status is one to monitor. Neither Gore or Yeldon are recommended fantasy options in the defensive slugfest, and if Singletary is active he may be on a snap count which limits his fantasy appeal. FB Pat DiMarco is also in the concussion protocol and is looking doubtful to play Sunday. This would hurt the running game as DiMarco is an excellent lead blocker. Fade the Bills backfield.

Titans

Opp (BUF) Pass DVOA: #3
Opp (BUF) Run DVOA: #25
Injuries to Watch DEF (BUF): S Dean Marlowe, CB Taron Johnson
Injuries to Watch OFF (TEN): TE Delanie Walker
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Delanie Walker (19%), Corey Davis (15%), A.J. Brown (14%), Adam Humpries (13%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: Derek Henry (72%, 28, 1), Dion Lewis (28%, 8, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown:
Tennessee continues to impress sporadically, with the good Titans showing up in a win against Atlanta last week. Marcus Mariota is the only quarterback in the NFL to start all four games so far and not turn the ball over (titansized.com). That style of play works perfectly for a team that is predicated on smash mouth running and defense, but his lack of passing volume still doesn’t lend itself to any fantasy football usefulness. The Titans receivers continue to be a fantasy minefield, you are as likely to get 15 fantasy points as you are to get 0. Week 4 was A.J. Brown’s turn to be the flavor of the week, but he’s no more than a WR4 against the leagues best secondary. Corey Davis went off last week as well, while Adam Humphries took a backseat. Until we see consistent production from one wideout, the Titans receivers are no more than a stash. The passing game only has enough volume to support one pass catcher, and that generally has been tight end Delanie Walker. Walker however, may be injured as he puzzlingly only played 20 snaps last week. The other tight ends on the roster aren’t options unless Walker were to miss time.
RB Breakdown:
Derek Henry (upgrade) continues to see the volume that owners would die for and is slowly inching his way into the upper echelon of running back options for fantasy. He’s in an interesting spot to produce this week as well, as the defensive minded game-script should allow for plenty of opportunities to establish the run. The Bills weakness on defense has been the run so far, however, they still only give up 18.3 FPPG to running backs. Fire up Henry with confidence as an RB1 - the matchup isn’t as imposing as it looks. Dion Lewis shouldn’t be rostered in most leagues.
Score Prediction: Titans 13, Bills 6

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

Cardinals ATS: 2-2-0 Bengals ATS: 2-2-0
Projected Team Totals: Cardinals 22.25 Bengals 25.25

Cardinals

Opp (CIN) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (CIN) Run DVOA: #22
Injuries to Watch DEF (CIN): DE Carlos Dunlap, DE Kerry Wynn
Injuries to Watch OFF (ARI): Christian Kirk (DNP, likely out Week 5), Damiere Byrd (DNP), OL Justin Pugh (DNP)
**Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Christian Kirk (22%), Larry Fitzgerald (21%), David Johnson (17%), Damiere Byrd (13%), KeeSean Johnson (11%).
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: David Johnson (86%, 19, 11) Chase Edmonds (21%, 6, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Things have not gone as planned the past two weeks for Kyler Murrary (upgrade) but this week looks like a breakout opportunity. The Bengals 2nd worst Pass DVOA highlights a team that is thin in the secondary and unable to generate a pass rush that forces the QB to make bad throws. In Murray’s past two games, he has struggled when facing pressure, and the Cardinals O-Line has been unable to give him any time. That is unlikely to be the case on Sunday. Murray can be fired up this week as a top 10 QB play, and his rushing upside (1st rush TD last week) gives an excellent boost to ensure a quality floor. Christian Kirk (OUT, ankle) looks to be out this week, so Larry Fitzgerald (upgrade) should see another monster target share, and can be seen as a high floor WR2 especially in PPR leagues. Andy Isabella may get his first crack this week with Kirk out, so he’s a name to monitor for DFS, or in dynasty leagues. The Bengals have actually given up the 4th fewest FPPG to opposing WRs, but the 31st ranked pass DVOA tells a clearer story. Not a single Bengals defensive back ranks in the top 60 at their position (PFF). The reality is the Bengals have faced a number of teams with run heavy offenses, and have been unable to stop teams on defense regardless of playcalling. The Cardinals are extremely pass heavy, and the sheer volume combined with the poor Bengals defense should lead to a good day for Murray and Fitzgerald, and Isabella makes for a risky but intriguing DFS punt play. Don’t be tempted to use any other ARI WR, as the Bengals outside CBs have been able to limit outside receivers decently this year and Fitzgerald will be a target hog.
RB Breakdown
Despite the poor outcome to last week’s matchup, David Johnson (upgrade) showed off his receiving chops by leading all players in receiving yards (99yds). This activity in the passing game further upgrades his floor and makes him a rock solid RB1 moving forward. The matchup against the Bengals 22nd DVOA rush D and most FPPG allowed to opposing RBs should have owners drooling this week. Chase Edmonds is a solid handcuff for Johnson owners, but offers no standalone value.

Bengals

Opp (ARI) Pass DVOA: #22
Opp (ARI) Run DVOA: #24
Injuries to Watch DEF (ARI): Terrel Suggs (DNP Thurs), DL Zach Allen (DNP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CIN): OL Cordy Glenn (out Week 5), AJ Green (rehab field, Doubtful) John Ross to IR (min 8 games missed)
Key WCB matchups: None, Patrick Peterson still out due to suspension (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Tyler Boyd (23%), John Ross (19%), Auden Tate (16%), Tyler Eifert (10%), Joe Mixon (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches Week 4: Joe Mixon (57%, 19, 5) Gio Bernard (43%, 5, 6)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Bengals were embarrassed on MNF football last week by a PIT team with a backup QB and a bottom third defense. About the only thing worse than Cincy’s play was Booger’s commentary. Andy Dalton (upgrade) did little to inspire confidence by finishing in the bottom third in passer rating despite the on paper matchup upgrade. This week projects to be a high scoring affair of two teams with pass heavy schemes and terrible pass defenses, so Dalton is in play a solid QB2 or streamer for desperate owners, but it’s impossible to say with any confidence that Dalton is a top 12 play even in a dream matchup. John Ross (drop) heads to IR, so Auden Tate (upgrade) takes over as the #2 option to Tyler Boyd (upgrade PPR). Tate has been the leading receiver for the Bengals the past two weeks, and may be able to get his weekly target share above 20% with Ross now out. AJ Green was seen on the rehab field this week, but is at least 1-2 more weeks away from playing. Tate is a borderline WR2/3 this week due to the matchup, and Boyd re-enters WR2 territory despite two subpar weeks in a row. Tyler Eifert (upgrade) is the streamer of the week against the Cardinals non-existent defending of TEs (most FPPG allowed). Eifert doesn’t see enough targets to be confidently ranked in the top 6-8 of his position, but is a back end TE1 this week on matchup alone, and the Ross injury may give him a slight bump in targets.
RB Breakdown
It’s no secret that the Bengals O-Line may be the worst in the NFL this year (do the Dolphins count as an NFL team?), and this has turned Joe Mixon (upgrade) into more of an RB2 than RB1 this year despite his immense talent. The Cardinals run defense has been vulnerable through four games, and the potential for a high scoring affair with neutral or positive game script for the first time this season give Mixon a chance at a breakout week. Don’t be surprised if he puts up 100+ total yards and scores his first TD of the year, and consider selling high if he does. Giovanni Bernard is only a handcuff at this point, although a valuable one for Mixon owners considering his injury potential and the fact the Bengals would not rush him back to a lost season if he did go down.
Score Prediction: Bengals 28, Cardinals 24
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And one of the key reasons is that they don’t use statistics and analytics at all. but I also understand, that bookmakers also don’t have perfect numbers, because sport is complex thing. I also understand, that they move the lines because of market. except NBA. I made 392 picks from February 4th, 2017 – September 3rd, 2017. Key Numbers in Basketball. Key numbers in the NBA are a bit harder to analyze, but the most common one is 7 points, which happens a little more than seven percent of the time. The reasoning behind this boils down to the act of fouling at the end of the game. Much like football, there are some key numbers when it comes to capping the NBA spreads. Games will often be decided by a margin between five and eight points – falling on those numbers almost In fact, often times, when lines move, squares are forcing those lines to move, particularly around key numbers. Keep a close eye on a football game with a betting line of 4.5 or 5. There isn’t all that much difference, mathematically speaking, between a four-point game and a six-point game in the NFL in particular, and bettors who are Understanding key numbers when betting NFL over/unders is an important strategy that most recreational bettors ignore. Similar to margins of victory, the total points scored by NFL teams per game have changed since the league moved PAT attempts to the 15-yard line following the 2014 season.

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