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FIRE and Kids – The cost of raising children in Australia

This post has been inspired by this recent podcast featuring three of the biggest names in the Aussie FIRE blogging community, and the follow on discussions in the Aussie Firebug Facebook group about how much it costs to raise kids in Australia. As all three acknowledge they don’t have kids so it’s not something they really have any experience with.
As someone who has two young kids I thought it would be useful to write about it from my perspective. Obviously my situation isn’t the same as everyone else’s, there are plenty of people who would be horrified with how much we’ve spent, and others who would wonder how we manage to spend so little. Everyone’s situation is different, so what works for my family wouldn’t necessarily work or others.
My oldest child has only just started school this year so I can’t really speak from experience beyond the 0-5yo age range, but I’ll talk through some of the typical costs, what we have and haven’t spent money on so far, and what we’re anticipating in the future.
The costs people actually talk about The first two things that almost always come up when people start talking about the cost of babies are prams and carseats. Yes, you can spend a lot of money on these things if you want to, prams in particular. From a quick look at Baby Bunting the most expensive pram there is nearly 3 thousand dollars, and I’m betting that with a few accessories you can easily get over that mark.
No, you do not need to spend that much on a pram. Yes you can probably pick one up on the cheap from Kmart or Target etc for well under a hundred bucks, but it’s probably not going to be as sturdy or hold much of the gear you take with you. Happily a pram is also the sort of thing where you can pretty easily and safely pick one up secondhand or get a hand me down from someone else.
We bought a Babyzen Yoyo, which is basically a small sized pram although it still has enough storage room for us. It folds up so that you can take it on a plane as carry on luggage, is quite light, extremely maneuverable and very sturdy. I’ve taken it running plenty of times, it’s even got a Parkrun PB of 22:06!
This thing is absolutely gold. Unfortunately it’s priced as though it’s made of it as well. There wasn’t an option to get one second hand because it had only just been released so we had to pay full whack. I think we spent over a thousand dollars on it including all the accessories and the lie flat and sit up seats etc.
It was worth every cent. It’s been going for 5 years and 2 kids and is still in great shape, we’ve never had a problem with it at all. My wife tells me it is one of the best things I have ever bought her, although we both use it obviously.
And at the end of the day a one off cost of $1,000 for us as a family is going to have basically zero impact on when we hit FIRE. Plugging the numbers into a compound interest calculator and using 7% annual return over 30 years I miss out on $8,000, which is about a month worth of returns on my target portfolio. I can live with delaying retirement one month for about 5 cumulative years of having a really good pram that works great for us.
Similarly you can spend a fair chunk of money on car seats. This is one of those things that I wouldn’t want to get second hand because you can’t see if they’ve been broken or not and safety is a huge priority for us and presumably everyone else.
Happily car seats don’t tend to cost that much, you can pick one up for a couple hundred bucks or less pretty easily. If you do that it tends to be one for a much shorter age range, say 0-2yrs whereas I think you can get ones which will take your kid from 0-8 but they cost a lot more. In any case per kid you’re probably looking at a thousand bucks total, and this could easily be a lot less.
Again it’s not going to make any appreciable different to us reaching FIRE. So as easy as it is to point at this sort of stuff as being ridiculously expensive and over priced etc, it’s really not going to make much of a difference to most people. Sure you don’t want to spend any more money than you have to, but you also want to make sure you’re getting something that works for you.
The other one off costs There are also a bunch of one off costs for babies and young kids like cots, beds, mattresses, baby carriers etc. From what I’ve been told you want to buy a baby mattress new, but that’s only about a hundred bucks at Target, potentially cheaper elsewhere. We have an Ikea cot which cost about the same, you could easily get one second hand or likely for free just by asking around your friends who will probably be delighted to get it out of their house.
Some people do co-sleeping in which case you don’t need the cot and mattress although you may like to kid yourself that your baby will actually sleep in their own bed, maybe even through the night. It’s nice to pretend sometimes!
As kids get older you’ll need a proper bed for them, again you can probably pick this up second hand pretty cheap and a mattress can be easily had for a couple hundred bucks. So none of these things are really going to have much of an impact so long as you’re a decent saver already.
The big costs you see When you don’t have kids it can be great to live in a studio flat or one bedroom apartment in the inner city close to all the bars and restaurants and all the rest of it. You can stay in your local area and have plenty to keep you entertained, there is probably a supermarket nearby and plenty of public transport so you may not need a car either.
Once you have kids, it’s likely going to be a different story as your priorities change. It may be that you’re happy renting with kids, but lots of people tend to prioritise stability and security when they have kids and that means owning your own home in most cases. I’m not saying everyone will want this, but a lot of people will.
So now that you have kids you almost certainly want a second bedroom and if you’re planning on having more kids maybe a third or fourth etc. Obviously kids can share bedrooms for a while at least but sooner or later they will probably want their own space, as will you.
You’ll also be wanting parks with playgrounds nearby and somewhere you can easily take your kids for a walk or kick a football around, ideally in a good school district which can add a couple hundred thousand dollars to the cost all by itself if you’re in Sydney or Melbourne. And if you want to live somewhere cheaper but send the kids to a good private school, well that can cost anywhere from the low thousands to multiple tens of thousands per year.
Similarly if you didn’t have a car before, you will very likely want one now. I’ve mentioned before that we drive a base model Corolla which works just fine for us so far, but you’re still probably looking at $20k plus if you buy one new, mid teens if you want one used. If you want an SUV or a luxury model car, be prepared to fork out a lot more.
In the same vein if you were previously going on lots of holidays and plan to keep doing so, well you now have at least one more plane ticket to buy, might need a bigger hotel room etc. As I talked about in this post about big ticket items, that all comes at a real cost. We bought land and built a house, so I can say that we spent roughly $100,000 more on that than we would have otherwise.
The ongoing costs There are also a bunch of ongoing costs for kids as well. They need to be fed, they need clothes and shoes, they need medicine, and a bunch of other stuff that costs money. I wrote here about a bunch of things that we do to keep costs down, but the reality is that you still have to fork over a decent chunk of change.
On top of all that contrary to what you might have been told public school is not free, there are a bunch of things that you have to chip in for here as well. We’re not at the stage that we’re forking out a fortune in extra utility bills etc but we certainly use the washing machine a lot more than we would if we didn’t have kids, there are extra lights and tvs etc on so there are extra costs there as well.
There are also a bunch of extra items that you don’t really need to spend, but probably will. For us this includes stuff like swimming lessons, some sports like AusKick (AFL) and Junior Blasters (cricket), occasionally taking them to a theme park or zoo etc. They also get birthday and Christmas presents, and if they get invited to other kids parties they take a store bought gift with them.
The above is about what I think our 5yo costs us at the moment based on our spending, our 2yo is probably about two thirds of that due mostly to her not eating as much and not getting swimming lessons yet, as well as not being in school or doing sports.
I’ve left the holiday line blank because this is hugely variable. Last year we did a trip to the UK and it probably cost us about $3,000 extra between the two of them, next time it will be another couple thousand dollars more because the youngest one will need her own seat rather being on someone’s lap for the flights.
So our spending for our eldest is about two thirds of the costs quoted in this article for a 6yo girl, I would assume that apart from a boy maybe eating a bit more the costs should be fairly similar. The main difference compared to our costs seem to be education and transport.
Also, it was somewhat shocking to me just how expensive swimming lessons are! This is actually at our local council aquatic centre and is the cheapest in town. We do get to use the pool whenever we want, but that only tends to be once or twice a week at most. At least the lessons will hopefully only be for a few years for each child, although after that we may be forking out for something else instead.
The hidden cost of kids The biggest cost is often actually one that doesn’t show up as an expense, the opportunity cost of one parent giving up paid employment entirely for a while or doing part time hours (I’ve used the phrase giving up paid employment here because looking after kids and a house is definitely work!).
If we say that you’re giving up a full time paid job that’s at minimum wage of roughly $20 an hour for 40 hours a week, 48 weeks a year, then that’s $38,400 a year ($33,605 after tax and medicare levy) that the family is giving up for however long this goes on for. If you’d otherwise be earning more than that, then the opportunity cost each year is even higher. On top of that there is the hit to your career and future earnings, because those are definitely going to be impacted as well.
If you’ve got two kids that are separated by two or three years and you as a family want a parent at home until they go to school, well that’s 7 or 8 years of missing out on that money which works out as around $250k based on a full time minimum wage job. I’m pretty hopeful that my wife would be earning more than minimum wage as well so for us it’s even more than that. On the plus side, she gets to spend more time with the kids although that probably feels like a mixed blessing some of the time!
Alternatively if both parents want to keep working then there will likely be childcare costs for the first 4 or 5 years and then before and after school care, as well as missing out on spending time with their kids. Because we haven’t gone down this route I don’t know exactly how much it costs, I do hear plenty of stories about it being $100 a day minimum around where I live and it’s a lot more in capital cities. There are subsidies available for this, but you can pretty easily be spending tens of thousands each year on childcare while they’re young and then once they’re old enough before and after school care.
You may be lucky enough to have grandparents or other family nearby that are happy to help out with this if they live nearby, but that won’t apply to everyone and it’s unlikely to reduce the cost entirely.
The costs that are yet to come At the moment our kids are still young and fairly inexpensive. Between the two of them they tend to eat roughly what a grown adult eats, but from what I’ve been told that will change fairly dramatically as they get older. They’ll need new clothes more frequently, more shoes, potentially play more sports, go on more school excursions, you get the idea.
Education could be another factor. There is a public high school that will be built in the next few years quite close by, and assuming that it’s decent our kids will likely be going there. But if it’s not, then we’ll have to look into private schools which can cost anywhere from a few thousand dollars to tens of thousands.
There will be extra curricular stuff as well. Given my wife and I are both horrible at music it seems unlikely that our kids will be doing extra lessons there, but there are plenty of other areas like sport or extra educational activities that we’d be considering. I know a few parents who have kids who are in elite sports programs (as in regional or state teams) and the costs here can very quickly add up, likewise if extra education is needed or wanted then that’ll be an extra expense.
Government and other assistance I know that depending on your circumstances that there can be government assistance in the form of Family Tax Benefit, childcare subsidy and possibly other programs as well. We don’t get any of these which is fine, we don’t need them and they are presumably meant to be for those who do. If you’re not sure if you should be getting any of these then Centrelink does have this payment finder.
We did get the one day a week Kinder program for 3yos and 3 days a week Kinder program for 4yos, although these both also came with costs of roughly $1,500 a year so it actually cost us money, again this is fine, just a reminder that it isn’t actually free.
Depending on your employer you may also be able to get parental leave for a while, and there is a minimum payment which they have to make so long as you’ve met some requirements. Some employers may also have some continuing support with subsidised childcare and the like. None of this was applicable to our situation but at least some of it will likely be available for others.
So what’s the bottom line? For us the biggest actual one off cost so far has been the bigger house and land that we purchased because we wanted our kids to be able to have plenty of space inside and outside the house. That cost about a hundred thousand dollars more than we would have paid if it were just the two of us. All the other stuff like a pram, car seats, cots/beds, mattresses and all the rest of it have been maybe $5,000 total, which is tiny by comparison.
The opportunity cost has been bigger than this though. When we had our first child when we were in Hong Kong my wife wasn’t working much anyway as there just weren’t that many jobs she could do and my wage easily supported both of us so she was doing some very casual part time work and so not doing that work afterwards didn’t impact us much.
In Australia though she probably would have been earning at least $40,000 a year after tax, so we’ve foregone almost $200,000 on an after tax basis there. Which as I’m sure you can imagine has a pretty big impact on when we will hit FIRE, particularly given we’ve got another few years or her not being in paid employment at all and then likely only working part time after that. So I would guess we’ll be looking at forgone earnings of at least $500,000 by the time all is said and done, and it could quite easily be a lot more.
The actual ongoing costs of the kids so far haven’t been too bad. Between the two of them it’s about $8,000 a year at the moment, although we would anticipate that this will go up a fair bit over time as they start eating more and getting into more extra curricular activities. I get that this is spending that isn’t a necessity, but do I really want my kids to miss out on a bunch of fun stuff so that I can retire a year or two earlier? No, no I do not.
So far the total costs look something like this. You can see that by far the biggest cost has been the earnings that we’ve missed out on because my wife has been at home looking after the kids and doing the household stuff (yes I do some of it because I think it’s important that we share the jobs and to role model stuff for the kids, but the reality is that she is at home a lot more than I am and does more of it). Buying a bigger house and land is next, and the actual costs of feeding and clothing and all the other one off stuff for the kids is a tiny proportion of the actual cost.
All up I’m hopeful that we can keep the ongoing costs to somewhere between $125k and $150k per child from birth through to age 18, although if private school is necessary then that will push up the costs a fair bit. This is less than half of what this article suggests, so although it sounds like a lot of money it’s actually fairly frugal by comparison.
To put it in perspective, it’s basically spending about 7 or 8 grand a year on each child. There are plenty of people out there who spend more than that on food alone, let alone the rest of their living expenses.
As I said earlier travel costs are on top of this, and this can increase the costs quite a lot! Travel is a huge part of the reason we’re pursuing HIFIRE, and we want to be taking the kids on plenty of holidays while they’re growing up.
That’s obviously discretionary spending to a large extent, but we do have close family living overseas who we want to see every couple of years or so, and it’s not fair to expect them to always be the ones travelling. I would guess that we’ll be looking at about $50k per kid in travel costs by the time they turn 18. That’s about 3 grand a year, which doesn’t sound wrong based on the cost of international travel. It may be less than that which would be great, but could also be a fair bit more.
So all up for the two kids we’re looking at about a million dollars from birth to age 18. About half of that is the foregone wages from not working, which is by far the biggest impact. The actual cost of the kids is about another 30%, then travel is 10%, another 10% for the bigger house and land. And then right at the end is less than 1% for the one off stuff like prams and baby seats and cots etc.
How could we spend less? Obviously there are other things we could be doing instead to keep the cost down. The biggest expense is the wages that aren’t being earned because my wife is looking after the kids and the household stuff. We could have chosen to have her work and instead pay for childcare and after school care etc.
If we did though then she wouldn’t get to spend as much time with the kids (which she tells would be welcome some of the time!) and there would be a lot more house work and shopping that would need to be done after work or on weekends for both of us, we’d potentially eat out more often as it’d be more of a hassle cooking meals each night, as well as a bunch of other tradeoffs.
So having her stay at home was our preferred method, and thankfully we’re in the financial position where we can afford to do it that way. Other people make different choices, or they’re unfortunately not in a position to make a choice, they need both partners working or if they’re a single parent have to do it this way.
We could have also gone with a smaller house and less of a backyard. I shared a bedroom with my brother for part of our childhood and we both managed fine. It’s not ideal, but it’s certainly doable, and we could have saved a lot of money by having a smaller house. Again we chose not to because we wanted a bigger house and a decent sized backyard for them to be able to run around in and we can afford it.
We don’t have to travel, although it’d be a bit rough expecting family to travel overseas to see us every year or two and then not reciprocating. Still, that would save a fair amount of money.
It’s pretty hard to say how things will work out with the actual costs of raising the kids. I know roughly what we’ve spent so far, but it’s pretty difficult to know what we’ll be spending in future as they get older. They’re likely to be eating a fair bit more food, s they grow they’ll need new clothes and shoes, they’ll presumably be playing sport and doing other extra curricular stuff which will all cost money.
$150k per kid from 0 to 18 seems like it’s a lot less than what it costs most people, but then we already live a fair bit more cheaply than most others so maybe it’s about right.
At the end of the day we’re happy with the choices that we’ve made so far, but there has certainly been some room to have spent less money than what we have, or to have had more money coming in through both of us being in paid employment. Obviously it has an impact on when we will hit our FIRE number, but I’d rather take a little bit longer to get there than to make different tradeoffs along the way.
Have you got kids or are thinking about having them? How do you think it will impact on your FIRE journey?
Original post with pretty charts, pictures, tables etc is here.
submitted by AussieHIFIRE to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

What a USL D1 league might look like

TL;DR: Man with too much time on his hands goes deep down the rabbit hole on a concept this sub already didn’t seem that enthusiastic about. If you really want to skip ahead, CTRL+F “verdict” and it’ll get you there.
Two days ago, u/MrPhillyj2wns made a post asking whether USL should launch a D1 league in order to compete in Concacaf. From the top voted replies, it appears this made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.
But I’ve been at home for eight weeks and I am terribly, terribly bored.
So, I present to you this overview of what the USL pyramid might look like if Jake Edwards got a head of steam and attempted to establish a USSF-sanctioned first division. This is by no means an endorsement of such a proposal or even a suggestion that USL SHOULD do such a thing. It is merely an examination of whether they COULD.
Welcome to the Thunderdome USL Premiership
First, there are some base-level assumptions we must make in this exercise, because it makes me feel more scientific and not like a guy who wrote this on Sunday while watching the Belarusian Premier League (Go BATE Borisov!).
  1. All D1 teams must comply with known USSF requirements for D1 leagues (more on that later).
  2. MLS, not liking this move, will immediately remove all directly-owned affiliate clubs from the USL structure (this does not include hybrid ownerships, like San Antonio FC – NYCFC). This removes all MLS2 teams but will not affect Colorado Springs, Reno, RGVFC and San Antonio.
  3. The USL will attempt to maintain both the USL Championship and USL League One, with an eventual mind toward creating the pro/rel paradise that is promised in Relegations 3:16.
  4. All of my research regarding facility size and ownership net worth is correct – this is probably the biggest leap of faith we have to make, since googling “NAME net worth” and “CITY richest people” doesn’t seem guaranteed to return accurate results.
  5. The most a club can increase its available seating capacity to meet D1 requirements in a current stadium is no more than 1,500 seats (10% of the required 15,000). If they need to add more, they’ll need a new facility.
  6. Let’s pretend that people are VERY willing to sell. It’s commonly acknowledged that the USL is a more financially feasible route to owning a soccer club than in MLS (c.f. MLS-Charlotte’s reported $325 million expansion fee) and the USSF has some very strict requirements for D1 sanctioning. It becomes pretty apparent when googling a lot of team’s owners that this requirement isn’t met, so let’s assume everyone that can’t sells to people who meet the requirements.
(Known) USSF D1 league requirements:
- League must have 12 teams to apply and 14 teams by year three
- Majority owner must have a net worth of $40 million, and the ownership group must have a total net worth of $70 million. The value of an owned stadium is not considered when calculating this value.
- Must have teams located in the Eastern, Central and Pacific time zones
- 75% of league’s teams must be based in markets with at a metro population of at least 1 million people.
- All league stadiums must have a capacity of at least 15,000
The ideal club candidate for the USL Premiership will meet the population and capacity requirements in its current ground, which will have a grass playing surface. Of the USL Championship’s 27 independent/hybrid affiliate clubs, I did not find one club that meets all these criteria as they currently stand.
Regarding turf fields, the USSF does not have a formal policy regarding the ideal playing surface but it is generally acknowledged that grass is superior to turf. 6 of 26 MLS stadiums utilize turf, or roughly 23% of stadiums. We’ll hold a similar restriction for our top flight, so 2-3 of our top flight clubs can have turf fields. Seem fair?
Capacity is going to be the biggest issue, since the disparity between current requirements for the second-tier (5,000) and the first tier (15,000) is a pretty massive gap. Nice club you have there, triple your capacity and you’re onto something. As a result, I have taken the liberty of relocating certain (read: nearly all) clubs to new grounds, trying my utmost to keep those clubs in their current markets and –importantly--, ensure they play on grass surfaces.
So, let’s do a case-by-case evaluation and see if we can put together 12-14 teams that meet the potential requirements, because what else do you have to do?
For each club’s breakdown, anything that represents a chance from what is currently true will be underlined.
Candidate: Birmingham Legion FC
Location (Metro population): Birmingham, Ala. (1,151,801)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Legion Field (FieldTurf, 71,594)
Potential owner: Stephens Family (reported net worth $4 billion)
Notes: Birmingham has a pretty strong candidacy. Having ditched the 5,000-seater BBVA Field for Legion Field, which sits 2.4 miles away, they’ve tapped into the city’s soccer history. Legion Field hosted portions of both the men’s and women’s tournaments at the 1996 Olympics, including a 3-1 U.S. loss to Argentina that saw 83,183 pack the house. The Harbert family seemed like strong ownership contenders, but since the death of matriarch Marguerite Harbert in 2015, it’s unclear where the wealth in the family is concentrated, so the Stephens seem like a better candidate. The only real knock that I can think of is that we really want to avoid having clubs play on turf, so I’d say they’re on the bubble of our platonic ideal USL Prem.
Candidate: Charleston Battery
Location (Metro population): Charleston, S.C. (713,000)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Johnson Hagood Stadium (Grass, ~14,700)
Potential owner: Anita Zucker (reported net worth $3 billion)
Notes: Charleston’s candidacy isn’t looking great. Already disadvantaged due to its undersized metro population, a move across the Cooper River to Johnson Hagood Stadium is cutting it close in terms of capacity. The stadium, home to The Citadel’s football team, used to seat 21,000, before 9,300 seats on the eastern grandstand were torn down in 2017 to deal with lead paint that had been used in their construction. Renovation plans include adding 3,000 seats back in, which could hit 15,000 if they bumped it to 3,300, but throw in a required sale by HCFC, LLC (led by content-creation platform founder Rob Salvatore) to chemical magnate Anita Zucker, and you’ll see there’s a lot of ifs and ands in this proposal.
Candidate: Charlotte Independence
Location (Metro population): Charlotte, N.C. (2,569, 213)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Jerry Richardson Stadium (Turf, 15,314)
Potential owner: James Goodnight (reported net worth $9.1 billion)
Notes: Charlotte ticks a lot of the boxes. A move from the Sportsplex at Matthews to UNC-Charlotte’s Jerry Richardson stadium meets capacity requirements, but puts them on to the dreaded turf. Regrettably, nearby American Legion Memorial Stadium only seats 10,500, despite a grass playing surface. With a sizeable metro population (sixth-largest in the USL Championship) and a possible owner in software billionaire James Goodnight, you’ve got some options here. The biggest problem likely lies in direct competition for market share against a much better-funded MLS Charlotte side due to join the league in 2021.
Candidate: Hartford Athletic
Location (Metro population): Hartford, Conn. (1,214,295)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Pratt & Whitney Stadium (Grass, 38,066)
Potential owner: Ray Dalio (reported net worth $18.4 billion)
Notes: Okay, I cheated a bit here, having to relocate Hartford to Pratt & Whitney Stadium, which is technically in East Hartford, Conn. I don’t know enough about the area to know if there’s some kind of massive beef between the two cities, but the club has history there, having played seven games in 2019 while Dillon Stadium underwent renovations. If the group of local businessmen that currently own the club manage to attract Dalio to the table, we’re on to something.
Candidate: Indy Eleven
Location (Metro population): Indianapolis, Ind. (2,048,703)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Lucas Oil Stadium (Turf, 62,421)
Potential owner: Jim Irsay (reported net worth of $3 billion)
Notes: Indy Eleven are a club that are SO CLOSE to being an ideal candidate – if it weren’t for Lucas Oil Stadium’s turf playing surface. Still, there’s a lot to like in this bid. I’m not going to lie, I have no idea what current owner and founder Ersal Ozdemir is worth, but it seems like there might be cause for concern. A sale to Irsay, who also owns the NFL Indianapolis (nee Baltimore) Colts, seems likely to keep the franchise there, rather than make a half-mile move to 14,230 capacity Victory Field where the AAA Indianapolis Indians play and expand from there.
Candidate: Louisville City FC
Location (Metro population): Louisville, Ky. (1,297,310)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Lynn Family Stadium (Grass, 14,000, possibly expandable to 20,000)
Potential owner: Wayne Hughes (reported net worth $2.8 billion)
Notes: I’m stretching things a bit here. Lynn Family stadium is currently listed as having 11,700 capacity that’s expandable to 14,000, but they’ve said that the ground could hold as many as 20,000 with additional construction, which might be enough to grant them a temporary waiver from USSF. If the stadium is a no-go, then there’s always Cardinal Stadium, home to the University of Louisville’s football team, which seats 65,000 but is turf. Either way, it seems like a sale to someone like Public Storage founder Wayne Hughes will be necessary to ensure the club has enough capital.
Candidate: Memphis 901 FC
Location (Metro population): Memphis, Tenn. (1,348,260)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Liberty Bowl Stadium (Turf, 58,325)
Potential owner: Fred Smith (reported net worth $3 billion)
Notes: Unfortunately for Memphis, AutoZone Park’s 10,000 seats won’t cut it at the D1 level. With its urban location, it would likely prove tough to renovate, as well. Liberty Bowl Stadium more than meets the need, but will involve the use of the dreaded turf. As far as an owner goes, FedEx founder Fred Smith seems like a good local option.
Candidate: Miami FC, “The”
Location (Metro population): Miami, Fla. (6,158,824)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Riccardo Silva Stadium (FieldTurf, 20,000)
Potential owner: Riccardo Silva (reported net worth $1 billion)
Notes: Well, well, well, Silva might get his wish for top-flight soccer, after all. He’s got the money, he’s got the metro, and his ground has the capacity. There is the nagging issue of the turf, though. Hard Rock Stadium might present a solution, including a capacity of 64,767 and a grass playing surface. It is worth noting, however, that this is the first profile where I didn’t have to find a new potential owner for a club.
Candidate: North Carolina FC
Location (Metro population): Durham, N.C. (1,214,516 in The Triangle)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Carter-Finley Stadium (Grass/Turf, 57,583)
Potential owner: Steve Malik (precise net worth unknown) / Dennis Gillings (reported net worth of $1.7 billion)
Notes: We have our first “relocation” in North Carolina FC, who were forced to trade Cary’s 10,000-seat WakeMed Soccer Park for Carter-Finley Stadium in Durham, home of the NC State Wolfpack and 57,583 of their closest friends. The move is a whopping 3.1 miles, thanks to the close-knit hub that exists between Cary, Durham and Raleigh. Carter-Finley might be my favorite of the stadium moves in this exercise. The field is grass, but the sidelines are artificial turf. Weird, right? Either way, it was good enough for Juventus to play a friendly against Chivas de Guadalajara there in 2011. Maybe the move would be pushed for by new owner and medical magnate Dennis Gillings, whose British roots might inspire him to get involved in the Beautiful Game. Straight up, though, I couldn’t find a net worth for current owner Steve Malik, though he did sell his company MedFusion for $91 million in 2010, then bought it back for an undisclosed amount and sold it again for $43 million last November. I don’t know if Malik has the juice to meet D1 requirements, but I suspect he’s close.
Candidate: Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Location (Metro population): Pittsburgh, Penn. (2,362,453)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Heinz Field (Grass, 64,450)
Potential owner: Henry Hillman (reported net worth $2.5 billion)
Notes: I don’t know a ton about the Riverhounds, but this move in particular feels like depriving a pretty blue-collar club from its roots. Highmark Stadium is a no-go from a seating perspective, but the Steelers’ home stadium at Heinz Field would more than meet the requirements and have a grass surface that was large enough to be sanctioned for a FIFA friendly between the U.S. WNT and Costa Rica in 2015. As for an owner, Tuffy Shallenberger (first ballot owner name HOF) doesn’t seem to fit the USSF bill, but legendary Pittsburgh industrialist Henry Hillman might. I’m sure you’re asking, why not the Rooney Family, if they’ll play at Heinz Field? I’ll tell you: I honestly can’t seem to pin down a value for the family. The Steelers are valued at a little over a billion and rumors persist that Dan Rooney is worth $500 million, but I’m not sure. I guess the Rooneys would work too, but it’s a definite departure from an owner in Shallenberger who was described by one journalist as a guy who “wears boots, jeans, a sweater and a trucker hat.”
Candidate: Saint Louis FC
Location (Metro population): St. Louis, Mo. (2,807,338)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Busch Stadium (Grass, 45,494)
Potential owner: William DeWitt Jr. (reported net worth $4 billion)
Notes: Saint Louis has some weirdness in making the jump to D1. Current CEO Jim Kavanaugh is an owner of the MLS side that will begin play in 2022. The club’s current ground at West Community Stadium isn’t big enough, but perhaps a timely sale to Cardinals owner William DeWitt Jr. could see the club playing games at Busch Stadium, which has a well established history of hosting other sports like hockey, college football and soccer (most recently a U.S. WNT friendly against New Zealand in 2019). The competition with another MLS franchise wouldn’t be ideal, like Charlotte, but with a big enough population and cross marketing from the Cardinals, maybe there’s a winner here. Wacko idea: If Busch doesn’t pan out, send them to The Dome. Sure, it’s a 60k turf closed-in stadium, but we can go for that retro NASL feel and pay homage to our nation’s soccer history.
Candidate: Tampa Bay Rowdies
Location (Metro population): Tampa, Fla. (3,068,511)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Raymond James Stadium (Grass, 65,518)
Potential owner: Edward DeBartolo Jr. (reported net worth $3 billion)
Notes: This one makes me sad. Despite having never been there, I see Al Lang Stadium as an iconic part of the Rowdies experience. Current owner Bill Edwards proposed an expansion to 18,000 seats in 2016, but the move seems to have stalled out. Frustrated with the city’s lack of action, Edwards sells to one-time San Francisco 49ers owner Edward DeBartolo Jr., who uses his old NFL connections to secure a cushy lease at the home of the Buccaneers in Ray Jay, the site of a 3-1 thrashing of Antigua and Barbuda during the United States’ 2014 World Cup Qualifying campaign.
Breather. Hey, we finished the Eastern Conference teams. Why are you still reading this? Why am I still writing it? Time is a meaningless construct in 2020 my friends, we are adrift in the void, fueled only by brief flashes of what once was and what may yet still be.
Candidate: Austin Bold FC
Location (Metro population): Austin, Texas (2,168,316)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Darrel K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf, 95,594)
Potential owner: Michael Dell (reported net worth of $32.3 billion)
Notes: Anthony Precourt’s Austin FC has some unexpected competition and it comes in the form of tech magnate Michael Dell. Dell, were he to buy the club, would be one of the richest owners on our list and could flash his cash in the new first division. Would he have enough to convince Darrel K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium (I’m not kidding, that’s its actual name) to go back to a grass surface, like it did from ’96-’08? That’s between Dell and nearly 100,000 UT football fans, but everything can be had for the right price.
Candidate: Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Location (Metro population): Colorado Springs, Colo. (738,939)
Time zone: Mountain
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Falcon Stadium (FieldTurf, 46,692)
Potential owner: Charles Ergen (reported net worth $10.8 billion)
Notes: Welcome to Colorado Springs. We have hurdles. For the first time in 12 candidates, we’re back below the desired 1 million metro population mark. Colorado Springs actually plans to build a $35 million, 8,000 seat venue downtown that will be perfect for soccer, but in our timeline that’s 7,000 seats short. Enter Falcon Stadium, home of the Air Force Academy Falcons football team. Seems perfect except for the turf, right? Well, the tricky thing is that Falcon Stadium is technically on an active military base and is (I believe) government property. Challenges to getting in and out of the ground aside, the military tends to have a pretty grim view of government property being used by for-profit enterprises. Maybe Charles Ergen, founder and chairman of Dish Network, would be able to grease the right wheels, but you can go ahead and throw this into the “doubtful” category. It’s a shame, too. 6,035 feet of elevation is one hell of a home-field advantage.
Candidate: El Paso Locomotive FC
Location: El Paso, Texas
Time zone: Mountain
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Sun Bowl (FieldTurf, 51,500)
Potential owner: Paul Foster (reported net worth $1.7 billion)
Notes: God bless Texas. When compiling this list, I found so many of the theoretical stadium replacements were nearly serviceable by high school football fields. That’s insane, right? Anyway, Locomotive don’t have to settle for one of those, they’ve got the Sun Bowl, which had its capacity reduced in 2001 to a paltry 51,500 (from 52,000) specifically to accommodate soccer. Sure, it’s a turf surface, but what does new owner Paul Foster (who is only the 1,477th wealthiest man in the world, per Forbes) care, he’s got a team in a top league. Side note: Did you know that the Sun Bowl college football game is officially, through sponsorship, the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl? Why is it not the Frosted Flakes Sun Bowl? Why is the cereal mascot the promotional name of the football game? What are you doing, Kellogg’s?
Candidate: Las Vegas Lights FC
Location: Las Vegas, Nev. (2,227,053)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Allegiant Stadium (Grass, 61,000)
Potential owner: Sheldon Adelson (reported net worth $37.7 billion)
Notes: Sin City. You had to know that the club that once signed Freddy Adu because “why not” was going to go all out in our flashy hypothetical proposal. Thanks to my narrative control of this whole thing, they have. Adelson is the second-richest owner in the league and has decided to do everything first class. That includes using the new Raiders stadium in nearby unincorporated Paradise, Nevada, and spending boatloads on high profile transfers. Zlatan is coming back to the U.S., confirmed.
Candidate: New Mexico United
Location: Albuquerque, N.M.
Time zone: Mountain
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Isotopes Park – officially Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park (Grass, 13,500 – 15,000 with expansion)
Potential owner: Maloof Family (reported net worth $1 billion)
Notes: New Mexico from its inception went deep on the community vibe, and I’ve tried to replicate that in this bid. The home field of Rio Grande Cr---I’m not typing out the whole thing—Isotopes Park falls just within the expansion rules we set to make it to 15,000 (weird, right?) and they’ve found a great local ownership group in the Lebanese-American Maloof (formerly Maalouf) family from Las Vegas. The only thing to worry about would be the metro population, but overall, this could be one of the gems of USL Prem.
Candidate: Oklahoma City Energy FC
Location: Oklahoma City, Okla. (1,396,445)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Chickasaw Bricktown Ballpark (Grass, 13,066)
Potential owner: Harold Hamm (reported net worth $14.2 billion)
Notes: There’s a bright golden haze on the meadow and it says it’s time to change stadiums and owners to make it to D1. A sale to oil magnate Harold Hamm would give the club the finances it needs, but Chickasaw Bricktown Ballpark (home of the OKC Dodgers) actually falls outside of the boundary of what would meet capacity if 1,500 seats were added. Could the club pull off a move to Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma – home of the Oklahoma Sooners? Maybe, but at 20 miles, this would be a reach.
Candidate: Orange County SC
Location: Irvine, Calif. (3,176, 000 in Orange County)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Angels Stadium of Anaheim (Grass, 43,250)
Potential owner: Arte Moreno (reported net worth $3.3 billion)
Notes: You’ll never convince me that Rangers didn’t choose to partner with Orange County based primarily on its name. Either way, a sale to MLB Angels owner Arte Moreno produces a fruitful partnership, with the owner choosing to play his newest club out of the existing Angels stadium in OC. Another baseball conversion, sure, but with a metro population of over 3 million and the closest thing this hypothetical league has to an LA market, who’s complaining?
Candidate: Phoenix Rising FC
Location: Phoenix, Ariz. (4,857,962)
Time zone: Arizona
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): State Farm Stadium (Grass, 63,400)
Potential owner: Ernest Garcia II (reported net worth $5.7 billion)
Notes: We’re keeping it local with new owner and used car guru Ernest Garcia II. His dad owned a liquor store and he dropped out of college, which is making me feel amazing about my life choices right now. Casino Arizona Field is great, but State Farm Stadium is a grass surface that hosted the 2019 Gold Cup semifinal, so it’s a clear winner. Throw in Phoenix’s massive metro population and this one looks like a lock.
Candidate: Reno 1868 FC
Location: Reno, Nev. (425,417)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Mackay Stadium (FieldTurf, 30,000)
Potential owner: Nancy Walton Laurie (reported net worth $7.1 billion)
Notes: The Biggest Little City on Earth has some serious barriers to overcome, thanks to its low metro population. A sale to Walmart heiress Nancy Walton Laurie and 1.6 mile-move to Mackay Stadium to split space with the University of Nevada, Reno makes this bid competitive, but the turf surface is another knock against it.
Candidate: Rio Grande Valley FC
Location: Edinburg, Texas (900,304)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): McAllen Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf, 13,500 – 15,000 with expansion)
Potential owner: Alice Louise Walton (reported net worth $45 billion)
Notes: Yes, I have a second straight Walmart heiress on the list. She was the first thing that popped up when I googled “McAllen Texas richest people.” The family rivalry has spurred Walton to buy a club as well, moving them 10 miles to McAllen Memorial Stadium which, as I alluded to earlier, is a straight up high school football stadium with a full color scoreboard. Toss in an additional 1,500 seats and you’ve met the minimum, despite the turf playing surface.
Candidate: San Antonio FC
Location: San Antonio, Texas (2,550,960)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Alamodome (FieldTurf, 64,000)
Potential owner: Red McCombs (reported net worth $1.6 billion)
Notes: I wanted to keep SAFC in the Spurs family, since the franchise is valued at $1.8 billion. That said, I didn’t let the Rooneys own the Riverhounds based on the Steelers’ value and it felt wrong to change the rules, so bring on Clear Channel co-founder Red McCombs. Toyota Field isn’t viable in the first division, but for the Alamodome, which was built in 1993 in hopes of attracting an NFL franchise (and never did), San Antonio can finally claim having *a* national football league team in its town (contingent on your definition of football). Now if only we could do something about that turf…
Candidate: San Diego Loyal SC
Location: San Diego, Calif. (3,317,749)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): SDCCU Stadium (formerly Qualcomm) (Grass, 70,561)
Potential owner: Phil Mickelson (reported net worth $91 million)
Notes: Yes, golf’s Phil Mickelson. The existing ownership group didn’t seem to have the wherewithal to meet requirements, and Phil seemed to slot right in. As an athlete himself, he might be interesting in the new challenges of a top flight soccer team. Toss in a move to the former home of the chargers and you might have a basis for tremendous community support.
Candidate: FC Tulsa
Location: Tulsa, Okla. (991,561)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium (FieldTurf, 30,000)
Potential owner: George Kaiser ($10 billion)
Notes: I’m a fan of FC Tulsa’s rebrand, but if they want to make the first division, more changes are necessary. A sale to Tulsa native and one of the 100 richest men in the world George Kaiser means that funding is guaranteed. A move to Chapman Stadium would provide the necessary seats, despite the turf field. While the undersize population might be an issue at first glance, it’s hard to imagine U.S. Soccer not granting a waiver over a less than a 10k miss from the mark.
And that’s it! You made it. Those are all of the independent/hybrid affiliates in the USL Championship, which means that it’s time for our…
VERDICT: As an expert who has studied this issue for almost an entire day now, I am prepared to pronounce which USL Championships could be most ‘ready” for a jump to the USL Prem. A reminder that of the 27 clubs surveyed, 0 of them met our ideal criteria (proper ownership $, metro population, 15,000+ stadium with grass field).
Two of them, however, met almost all of those criteria: Indy Eleven and Miami FC. Those two clubs may use up two of our three available turf fields right from the outset, but the other factors they hit (particularly Silva’s ownership of Miami) makes them difficult, if not impossible to ignore for the top flight.
But who fill in the rest of the slots? Meet the entire 14-team USL Premier League:
Hartford Athletic
Indy Eleven
Louisville City FC
Miami FC
North Carolina FC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Saint Louis FC
San Antonio FC
New Mexico United
Phoenix Rising FC
Las Vegas Lights FC
Orange County SC
San Diego Loyal SC
Now, I shall provide my expert rationale for each club’s inclusion/exclusion, which can be roughly broken down into four categories.
Firm “yes”
Hartford Athletic: It’s a good market size with a solid stadium. With a decent investor and good community support, you’ve got potential here.
Indy Eleven: The turf at Lucas Oil Stadium is no reason to turn down a 62,421 venue and a metro population of over 2 million.
Louisville City FC: Why doesn’t the 2017 & 2018 USL Cup champion deserve a crack at the top flight? They have the market size, and with a bit of expansion have the stadium at their own SSS. LCFC, you’re in.
Miami FC, “The”: Our other blue-chip recruit on the basis of ownership value, market size and stadium capacity. Yes, that field is turf, but how could you snub Silva’s chance to claim victory as the first division 1 club soccer team to play in Miami?
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC: Pittsburgh sacrificed a lot to be here (according to my arbitrary calculations). Their market size and the potential boon of soccer at Heinz Field is an important inclusion to the league.
Saint Louis FC: Willie hears your “Busch League” jokes, Willie don’t care. A huge market size, combined with the absence of an NFL franchise creates opportunity. Competition with the MLS side, sure, but St. Louis has serious soccer history and we’re willing to bet it can support two clubs.
Tampa Bay Rowdies: With a huge population and a massive stadium waiting nearby, Tampa Bay seems like too good of an opportunity to pass up for the USL Prem.
Las Vegas Lights FC: Ostentatious, massive and well-financed, Las Vegas Lights FC is everything that the USL Premier League would need to assert that it didn’t intend to play second fiddle to MLS. Players will need to be kept on a short leash, but this is a hard market to pass up on.
Phoenix Rising FC: Huge population, big grass field available nearby and a solid history of success in recent years. No brainer.
San Diego Loyal SC: New club? Yes, massive population in a market that recently lost an absolutely huge sports presence? Also yes. This could be the USL Prem’s Seattle.
Cautious “yes”
New Mexico United: You have to take a chance on New Mexico United. The club set the league on fire with its social media presence and its weight in the community when it entered the league last season. The market may be slightly under USSF’s desired 1 million, but fervent support (and the ability to continue to use Isotopes Park) shouldn’t be discounted.
North Carolina FC: Carter-Finley’s mixed grass/turf surface is a barrier, to be sure, but the 57,000+ seats it offers (and being enough to offset other fully-turf offerings) is enough to put it in the black.
Orange County SC: It’s a top-tier club playing in a MLB stadium. I know it seems unlikely that USSF would approve something like that, but believe me when I say “it could happen.” Orange County is a massive market and California likely needs two clubs in the top flight.
San Antonio FC: Our third and only voluntary inclusion to the turf fields in the first division, we’re counting on San Antonio’s size and massive potential stadium to see it through.
Cautious “no”
Birmingham Legion FC: The town has solid soccer history and a huge potential venue, but the turf playing surface puts it on the outside looking in.
Memphis 901 FC: Like Birmingham, not much to dislike here outside of the turf playing surface at the larger playing venue.
Austin Bold FC: See the other two above.
FC Tulsa: Everything’s just a little bit off with this one. Market’s slightly too small, stadium has turf. Just not enough to put it over the top.
Firm “no”
Charleston Battery: Small metro and a small potential new stadium? It’s tough to say yes to the risk.
Charlotte Independence: A small new stadium and the possibility of having to compete with an organization that just paid over $300 million to join MLS means it’s best for this club to remain in the USL Championship.
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC: When a club’s best chance to meet a capacity requirement is to host games at a venue controlled by the military, that doesn’t speak well to a club’s chances.
El Paso Locomotive FC: An undersized market and a turf field that meets capacity requirements is the death knell for this one.
Oklahoma City Energy FC: Having to expand a baseball field to meet requirements is a bad start. Having to potentially play 20 miles away from your main market is even worse.
Reno 1868 FC: Population nearly a half-million short of the federation’s requirements AND a turf field at the hypothetical new stadium makes impossible to say yes to this bid.
Rio Grande Valley FC: All the seat expansions in the world can’t hide the fact that McAllen Memorial Stadium is a high school stadium through and through.
Here’s who’s left in the 11-team Championship:
Birmingham Legion FC
Charleston Battery
Charlotte Independence
Memphis 901 FC
Austin Bold FC
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
El Paso Locomotive FC
Oklahoma City Energy FC
Reno 1868 FC
Rio Grande Valley FC
FC Tulsa
With MLS folding the six affiliates it has in USL League One, the league is a little bit thin (especially considering USSF’s requirements for 8 teams for lower level leagues), but seems definitely able to expand up to the necessary numbers with Edwards’ allusions to five new additions this year:
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Forward Madison FC
Greenville Triumph SC
Union Omaha
Richmond Kickers
South Georgia Tormenta
FC Tucson
Format of Assorted Leagues – This (like everything in this post) is pure conjecture on my part, but here are my thoughts on how these leagues might function in a first year while waiting for additional expansion.
USL Premier – We’ll steal from the 12-team Scottish Premiership. Each club plays the other 11 clubs 3 times, with either one or two home matches against each side. When each club has played 33 matches, the top six and bottom six separate, with every club playing an additional five matches (against each other team in its group). The top club wins the league. The bottom club is automatically relegated. The second-bottom club will enter a two-legged playoff against someone (see below) from the championship playoffs.
USL Championship -- 11 clubs is a challenge to schedule for. How about every club plays everyone else three times (either one or two home matches against each side)? Top four clubs make the playoffs, which are decided by two-legged playoffs. The winner automatically goes up. I need feedback on the second part – is it better to have the runner-up from the playoffs face the second-bottom club from the Premiership, or should the winner of the third-place match-up get the chance to face them to keep drama going in both playoff series? As for relegation, we can clearly only send down the last place club while the third division is so small.
USL League One – While the league is so small, it doesn’t seem reasonable to have the clubs play as many matches as the higher divisions. Each club could play the other six clubs four times – twice at home and twice away – for a very equitable 24-match regular season, which would help restrict costs and still provide a chance to determine a clear winner. Whoever finishes top of the table goes up.
And there you have it, a hypothetical look at how the USL could build a D1 league right now. All it would take is a new stadium for almost the entire league and new owners for all but one of the 27 clubs, who wouldn’t feel that their property would be massively devalued if they got relegated.
Well that’s our show. I’m curious to see what you think of all of this, especially anything that you think I may have overlooked (I’m sure there’s plenty). Anyway, I hope you’re all staying safe and well.
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Psycho Betting and Stats 301-Degenalytics Question

!!!!DISCLAIMER:!!!!
Before you even start watching this for entertainment and see if you get offended by this un-P.C. content. Don't be a pussy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igsb3ejgbL8
If you can't handle it, leave this thread. If you can, then you may proceed to the next level.
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📰📜Story📜📰:
I've been scatter-brained, ire-filled, soul-searching and lost after a 7-day Degen Marathon that brought a shit load of misfortunes. I used to hate social media, but I've learned how to wield the soc. med. sword like a fucking Degen Jedi. I'm going to promote an honest cause where I seek to be victorious in the end. Just you watch you fucking doubters, haters, blockers, scammers. How much grit and intellect would the average fucking person have to endure what I've gone through in the last fucking 48 hours and still come out alive with a sense of greater purpose?
Had about $400 to $500 in righteously earned bonus dollars earned through impossible grinding degen mission that came pretty close to accomplishing (91%).
I would have had some imaginary >$600 BR by now, but instead the roll-over deadline caused the entire deposit to be forfeited and I manage to salvage some $100.
Due to a bonus rollover scheme, 80U of my balance was stuck in bonuses and if I fail to accomplish the roll-over by the deadline, it all gets forfeited.
With a $500-$600 balance, I could have somewhere at $900-1000 by now after a 20-2 W-L record on European football on Wednesday.
How did I get that record yesterday, by sampling a bunch of solid pre-game picks and live betting using my own fucking brain. I consult with the finest in capping. With $10-$20 bet sizes, That would have put me up maybe $15x16 = +$240 at minimum. $1000 was the imaginary bank roll. As of today, betting with $1 units, after Monday-Wednesday's successful run, while Tuesday was a -$50 blip, I converted $100 to about close to $200 (40U).
🤪🤑Psycho Betting🤑🤪:
I learned the art of psycho betting. Taking some well-advised 10U and 30U psycho bets that put my bankroll up a significant amounts, but a big loss does the opposite. Yesterday I manage to hit 4 grand 30U slams in a row, however many on juiced lines, so each $30 bet one returns about $15-20. Thus my bankroll grew nearly +100 units and sits close to $200 from the initial $100 I manage to salvage after that bonus robbery.
If you want to fucking learn the art of Psycho-Betting to the extremest and be successful at it, fucking put in $100 in Bovada (remember to use money that you can afford to lose) and get that fucking bonus for the purpose of looting the bookies in a successful vengeance scheme. This guy is a fucking Artillery: https://twitter.com/GoTimeCappers.
Fucking hit more than 4x30U grand slams yesterday and some 10-20U cherries on top. I tailed his free picks and other through consultation [Haha fucking reddit/sportsbook will probably ban me for promoting another tout, :)].Of course with my $1.5U size on a crippled bank roll, I cannot grow it to as much as I wanted to using GoTime's techniques. I would have been at another +$400 if I had $6 units. It's a high risk and high reward system, but if you are confident with your picks you go big on it. If you lose it, then you grind back with smaller 10U and 20U bets to try to get back to part to be able to do another 30U bet. The goal is to be like 2-1, 3-0 on 30U grand slams a day. There is some level of sustainability and back up plans to execute in case the 30U bet did not work out. It is very improbable for you to lose 10 in a row on well researched picks that the experts in the community have common agreement on. A lot of the times, the lines shift to reward you less for the pick since big money is already on the pick.
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!!!!!DISCLAIMER: DO NOT READ BEYOND HERE IF YOU HATE MATH OR HAVE AN IQ OF < 89!!!!!
Use the chart on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_classification
Here is a Nice Calculation to do:
📚📑💻Stats 301 Question in Degenalytics💻📑📚**:**
Lastly I asked anyone in the past few days to do a Stats 301 question with Degenalytics Context: To fucking determine the probability that an avg Joe with a $100+100 Bonus Bank-roll or $500 + 250B bank roll can actually pull off the $3000/$7500 grind in some number of N months betting with supposedly 2 full months of real sports (N-2) getting Obliterated by COVID-19. I want you to give me an analytical calculation or a simulation of your work and give me all the possible scenarios.
Then give the final verdict of if that number converges to 0.000% or 100.00% that the average Joe would succeed his false-hope mission for a successful rollover.
In other words think of it like this: If the average joe bets his entire bank roll 12 or more times (roll-over is not x10 because of bookie juice), what is the probability that he will still end up in the green? Also assign a tilt probability factor that the Average Joe would go on some emotional tilt spree to end up bust again? And make it even harder by eliminating 2-3 full months of real sports (N-2.5) and having to bet on Bovada's limited shitty ass lines and shitty live odds.
If you fucking want to eliminate the -2.5 months, then allow the average joe the freedom to bet on N months of e-sports [hahah] and see where that goes.
I had a bad experience betting on e-sports for 2 months and only end up -15-20U. I'm not saying that I lost because I suck at e-sports betting or I tailed the wrong people. The Bovada lines are super shitty and limited. Most of the time, on live esports, all you see are dashed out lines as if they fucking know what the rigged result is and prevent people from doing hedge bets or try to bet opposite spreads when they are winning to guarantee an insurance 1-1 with minimal damage incurred to their bank-roll. The live betting experience on e-sports on the Bovada platform is so bad that you are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Fucking hell Bodog/Bovada even offered me a $250 deposit on 100% bonus after the Rudy Gobert day in Mid March. They advertised the joys and wonders of getting rich betting off esports.
I was so tempted to deposit, however I kind of over-slept and missed out on the dead-line so they closed the bonus offer. Pretty good relief that I did not fuck-up my real credit card and bank account by falling for that scam again. It was an accidental Grace of God moment to fucking avoid that E-sports deposit marketing scam.
BONUS Questions:
A: Calculate the number of months needed and number of successful bets required for the conservative degen 1u bettor to grind out the roll-over playing
$2.00 tug of war with the bookie.
B: Calculate the odds that a professional capper who knows how to adjust unit sizes (1u-5u), do parlays once a while, will succeed the roll-over in some
N-2.5 months or add some e-sports to have fun to keep the N factor.
C.1: Calculate the conditional probabilities for the bettor succeeding in the mission if on the first few days of betting:
i) He loses bet 1 for about $20.
ii) Wins bet 1 for about $20 to earn $17.5.
iii) Goes on a 3 game losing streak
iv) 5 game losing streak
v) Positivity case: The guy got lucky and nearly doubled his bank roll on a decent run from day. Up +100U or $200. [I'm sure that out of bad discipline the average Joe would still go -200U in the long run with a pretty high probability.]
C.2: Determine the mathematical scheme on how the Bookies can use your first few losses to eventually put you in a 60+:40- (Greater than 60% locked in bonus, less than 40% of your deposited money). Bonus:Locked funds ratio.
The Jinx-King answer: It converges to zero [hahaha], but I really am interested in know what other scenarios math and stats people have come up. And your mathematical approaches and formulae used to generate possible scenarios and probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that for the average Joe,the answer is 0.00% success rate. Bodog/Bovada knows this exactly and refuses to put a hiatus on the roll-over deadline. Instead they keep it going so that people can try to wager on e-sports and lose their entire bank roll. They are only interested it getting 100% of your locked funds so that they can buy expensive cruises, yachts, beach mansions, resort packages, etc in Aruba or some other tropical place. Where you got millions of desperate Americans, Canadians in struggling economies with lost jobs and zero positive cash-flow. About 10% or so or perhaps even more deposit money into off-shore gambling websites hoping they can roll-over their bank-roll some ridiculous number of times and make a few bucks to put food on the table.
In fact, it makes matters worst being jobless, having zero cash flow and having locked funds in scamming bookies. If you are not good at casino or sports-betting games, you would have:
A: Lose your entire deposit for failing to grind it out properly.
B: Not grind it out on time on whatever dead-line the roll-over was.
C: Even if you did successfully grind that shit out using conservative 1u betting and play $2 tug of war with the bookie, you will end up just wasting your time grinding it out for hours and hours on end. It would have been better for you to fucking find a job at some farm helping out with harvesting crops or work in meat plants so that food does not go to waste. I bet you I can make more money than your $2 tug of war in one a day picking off cans and bottles off the streets in some exercise walking/running/biking + collection routine then selling it to the recycling center for $0.05-0.25 a unit. Trust me at my university, I spot maybe about 50-200 empty/partially driven cans and bottles left on desks, lecture halls, the floor, libraries, work areas, etc. Supposed that I harvested that shit, I would be making $5-$20 a day collecting it all and going to the recycling center once every week.
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⚖Conclusions⚖:
The fucking company knows this COVID-19 closure shit and want to use it to their advantage to continue to rob millions of their customers. Last week, I tried to call customer service, chat help, email, etc. and management has spoken to plead my case to delay the roll-over dead-line in a pro-rated time frame so that customers with locked balances can resume betting with their full balance when Game 1 of any Major League Sport actually returns. They give me the same bull-shit over and over saying they decline my request. For what reason?
  1. The terms and conditions written in fine print for accepting the bonus conversion challenge. "Rules are Rules."
  2. They were aware my deadline of June 22 at 19:23 ET was approaching soon. They knew I was on a mission to salvage my bank roll before they yank out the 60-75U trapped in bonus balances (i.e. Ghost money). By the end of it, I realize I made a foolish mistake. Most of my wins were just from bonus money and I was rewarded $0.00 on righteous wins on expired bonuses.
Therefore Bonus money only earns bonus money which put my entire bank-roll in a 80:20 ratio where the bookies control 80U in ghost money. By the end of the roll-over deadline, they get to yank out 80U of my balance at the deadline and left me with about $100 (20U) bank roll to regrind.
  1. They knew I was winning consistently making solid picks.
During my 110 hour marathon over the brutal grind of losing more than 70 hours of work, leisure and recreation; 35 hours of sleep; to a fucking impossible grind of trying to roll over some 60% of $7500 on sports I have little knowledge of capping (i.e. E-sports, Table Tennis, European football) after a few days of studying the game, I was picking up my stride to grind it to 91%. They fucking knew that if I had another day to grind, they would be coughing up +$600-800 of withdrawable balance to my account.
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Bio:😎📚🎓👨‍🎓
I am a Fucking PHD Candidate (2-6 months from graduating and not having to pay another round of BS tuition) who does a shitload of mathematics, statistics, simulations, mathematical physics, wrote scientific papers. I've won T.A. Awards, Government/Provincial/Institutional level scholarships, Conference presentations, with even Undergrad honors back in the day. DM me if you need a fucking CV to prove my fucking credentials.
Why am I able to write a lot of shit? Because my fucking brain operates on some max level Intel Xeon chip on overclock mode and I cannot do much to shut it down other than going to sleep. They only way is to write articles that I think might benefit the community.
I have a crazy interest in sports and Degen'ing. I love to fucking put action on sports games, be proud about making the correct calls on the outcome of games before it happens, and then boast to my circle of competitive friends about who's the fucking Boss. As tabboo as society think us degens are, I think this absolute BS. There is a pure enjoyment in watching sports and having action on it. It is nice to get paid beer money to cover a round for your buddies, or earn that rent money over a successful night of betting on shit you actually enjoy watching. Fuck I rather make $300 for one evening of enjoying sports rather than working a 9-5 dull job to try to afford rent/mortgage. If I can fucking pay off all my monthly expenses in 3 fucking successful nights of 3 hr sessions of sports matches, that would be ideal. I would take the lather over a 9-5 rat-race grind.
Overall I am "PRO" in the debate for local single sports betting bookies to be established in Canada. Get these fucking scamming off-shore books like bodog/Bovada who contribute only contribute "Bagel" to the Canadian Economy, but instead make it worst by scamming the masses of hard working or desperate people to leak out some sum of billions of dollars of national GDP. Probably the same applies to all American States, that people should not have to cough up their hard earned $$$$ to off-shore scamming bookies. I shall write an article about this later to justify my arguments later.
Ultimately I my goal is to obliterate or negate the influence of all the cons, scamming bookies, and false touts out there who are just interested in stealing people's $$$. To write out full studies on exposing their schemes in an objective lens.
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Calling me out: (Think I cannot track these pussy downvotes? I know you cowards 😂😜😎)
If you think I'm full of BS, then send me a personal DM to have a 1v1 argument the same way that Stephen A debates sports with Max Kellerman. You can downvote me or flame me with empty hate talk all you want on public threads. But don't be a fucky pussy by avoiding a debate with me. Trust me, I'm going to win and be the last one to state a real point that you will have no comeback for [haha]. Lastly, if you are open to discuss or debate with me about some issues, do some resarch/exploration, betting strategies, etc., I would love your collaboration in some projects I got going on.
Ultimately, I should help every honest worker strive towards Degen success or if not, just to purely enjoy putting action on sports games. If you are too full of yourself, then you are on your own, I bid thee adieu, and wish you all the best. However you will be absolutely declined to all services and counsel I work to provide to friends for free.
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Social Media📺🎬
Some extra Resource to how I got to this point in my mission.
Here it is for starters:
June 23, 2020: The Impossible Pursuit Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Tuesday)
June 24, 2020: Doubling Bank roll and rewarded Bagel: Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Wednesday)
June 24, 2020: How can you win 5 in a row and lose it all simultaneously? Reddit/sportsbook/What is your most impressive win?
Full Twiiter: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5
All my media: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/media
Discord: ????? To be solved.
Challenges: Got a few right in progress now and a couple of drafts I am working on.
The Jinxking Crusade (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275516258822131714?s=20
Turns out many people cannot withdraw anything out of Bovada/bodog due to some website glitches. Will try to recover a bankroll to attempt a withdrawal, however I am likely to have the same issues too. They will make some lame excuse to not give me a cheque. Definitely no point of pursuing anything in bovada/bodog if they refuse to give you withdrawables. The goal is to get their website off outta here. As well as get them out of advertisements. They definitely pulled off some "Get the fucking money and run scheme" and you will likely not see your money again. GG
The Jinxking Challenge (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275661929940467713?s=20
Want to expose a bad tout who over prices the service and has a mediocre record? Tail and fade to call their their BS or mediocre non profiting record out. Also good for finding legitimate winners too. This will be a mission to expose shitty touts on Twitter the way Penn & Teller exposes BS in the market.
submitted by jinxking0p5 to sportsbook [link] [comments]

[MISC] Results of the Clash of Clans survey

Here are the results of the survey I conducted a few days ago. Keep in mind that there may be some bias since I only posted the survey on Reddit (especially in the demographics section). There were 317 responses. Below the survey results, I listed all the responses to "My favorite memory..."
Here are graphs and pie charts for each question (the percentages on the bar graphs are incorrect. Please see below for correct percentages on all the questions): https://photos.app.goo.gl/ts63k2mZ8QoSJ4K39
Survey from 2 years ago for comparison: https://www.reddit.com/ClashOfClans/comments/7pt3my/misc_results_of_the_survey

Demographics

What gender are you?

• Male: 305 responses (96.2%)
• Female: 12 responses (3.7%)

How old are you?

• Below 10: 1 response (0.3%)
• Teens: 191 responses (60.3%)
• 20s: 93 responses (29.3%)
• 30s: 18 responses (5.7%)
• 40s: 9 responses (2.8%)
• 50+: 5 responses (1.6%)

What country are you from?

• United States of America: 188 responses (59.3%)
• Canada: 22 responses (6.9%)
• United Kingdom: 21 responses (6.6%)
• India: 21 responses (6.6%)
• Australia: 11 responses (3.5%)
• Netherlands: 11 responses (3.5%)
• Germany: 7 responses (2.2%)
Other: 36 responses (11.4%)

Player

How often do you play the game?

• Attack a few times a week: 16 responses (5%)
• Attack 1-2 times a day: 52 responses (16.4%)
• Attack 3-4 times a day: 84 responses (26.5%)
• Attack 5+ times a day: 165 responses (52.1%)

What Town Hall are you?

• Levels 1-4: 36 responses (5.3%)
• Levels 5-6: 56 responses (8.2%)
• Level 7: 54 responses (7.9%)
• Level 8: 65 responses (9.5%)
• Level 9: 107 responses (15.7%)
• Level 10: 115 responses (16.9%)
• Level 11: 106 responses (15.5%)
• Level 12: 83 responses (12.2%)
• Level 13: 60 responses (8.8%)

What Builder Hall are you?

• Have not gone to Builder Base: 20 responses (3.6%)
• Level 2: 24 responses (4.3%)
• Level 3: 37 responses (6.7%)
• Level 4: 58 responses (10.5%)
• Level 5: 66 responses (11.9%)
• Level 6: 83 responses (15%)
• Level 7: 62 responses (11.2%)
• Level 8: 51 responses (9.2%)
• Level 9: 154 responses (27.7%)

What trophy league are you in?

• Not in a league (grey): 19 responses (3.2%)
• Bronze: 30 responses (5%)
• Silver: 91 responses (15.2%)
• Gold: 109 responses (18.3%)
• Crystal: 151 responses (25.3%)
• Masters: 80 responses (13.4%)
• Champions: 57 responses (9.5%)
• Titans: 29 responses (4.9%)
• Legends: 31 responses (5.2%)

How many accounts do you have?

• 1 account: 108 responses (34.1%)
• 2 accounts: 105 responses (33.1%)
• 3 accounts: 45 responses (14.2%)
• 4 accounts: 21 responses (6.6%)
• 5+ accounts: 38 responses (12%)

What style of game play do you like?

• Wars (CWL, Regular, and Friendly): 143 responses (45.1%)
• Farming: 143 responses (45.1%)
• Trophy Pushing: 18 responses (5.7%)
• Builder Base: 2 responses (0.6%)
• Other: 11 responses (3.5%)

What is your favorite activity to participate in?

• CWL: 142 responses (44.8%)
• Clan Games: 67 responses (21.1%)
• Clan Wars: 62 responses (19.6%)
• Season Challenges: 18 responses (5.7%)
• Special Events: 16 responses (5%)
• Builder Base: 5 responses (1.6%)
• Other: 7 responses (2.2%)

How often do you buy the Gold Pass?

• Never: 103 responses (32.7%)
• Once every few months: 59 responses (18.7%)
• Every other month: 30 responses (9.5%)
• Always: 123 responses (39%)

How long have you played the game? (Not including breaks)

• Less than 6 months: 30 responses (9.5%)
• 1 year: 30 responses (9.5%)
• 2 years: 46 responses (14.5%)
• 3 years: 64 responses (20.2%)
• 4 years: 36 responses (11.4%)
• 5 years: 40 responses (12.6%)
• 6 years: 53 responses (16.7%)
• Since release: 18 responses (5.7%)

Clan

What is your highest role in the clan?

• Leader: 41 responses (13.1%)
• Co-Leader: 120 responses (38.3%)
• Elder: 95 responses (30.4%)
• Member: 57 responses (18.2%)

What level is your clan?

• Levels 1-3: 25 responses (8%)
• Levels 4-6: 46 responses (14.7%)
• Levels 7-9: 50 responses (16%)
• Levels 10-12: 50 responses (16%)
• Levels 13-15: 52 responses (16.6%)
• Levels 16-18: 37 responses (11.8%)
• Levels 18+: 53 responses (16.9%)

What Clan War League is your clan currently in?

• Bronze: 14 responses (4.5%)
• Silver: 43 responses (13.9%)
• Gold: 85 responses (27.4%)
• Crystal: 103 responses (33.2%)
• Masters: 52 responses (16.8%)
• Champions: 13 responses (4.2%)

How active is your clan?

On a scale of 1-5 with "1" being Dead (almost no activity) and "5" being very active (almost non-stop activity).
• 1: 3 responses (1%)
• 2: 24 responses (7.7%)
• 3: 68 responses (21.7%)
• 4: 131 responses (41.9%)
• 5: 87 responses (27.8%)

How many people are in your clan?

• Below 10 people: 7 responses (2.2%)
• 11-20 people: 15 responses (4.8%)
• 21-30 people: 33 responses (10.6%)
• 31-40 people: 72 responses (23.1%)
• 41-50 people: 185 responses (59.2%)

Does your clan use out of game apps?

• Yes: 141 responses (45%)
• No: 172 responses (55%)

Is your clan part of a family of clans? Is so, what is it called?

• My clan is not part of a family of clans: 233 responses (75%)
• FWA (Farm War Alliance): 11 responses (3.5%)
• RCS (Reddit Clan System): 6 responses (1.9%)
• My clan is part of a family of clans that is not listed here: 61 responses (19.6%)

What type of clan are you in?

• War: 233 responses (74.4%)
• Farming: 46 responses (14.7%)
• Donation: 6 responses (1.9%)
• Clan Games: 6 responses (1.9%)
• Trophy Pushing: 2 responses (0.6%)
• Other: 30 responses (9.6%)

Clash of Clans Stories

One of the questions in the survey was to share a favorite memory you have of playing Clash of Clans. Some people wrote a lot, others a little, and some did not share at all. I found a lot of the responses really heartwarming and I decided I want to share all of the stories. I broke them into categories to make it easier to read. I suggest to read them all if you have the time

Best Overall Story

One day I was chillin in global chat just vibing. There was like 10 players that were actively chatting in global with me. We had all been chattin for nearly an hour when I said,” Yo bois we should make ourselves a clan” we all were like,”Honestly I’m down” I made the clan, and we joined forces. We were anywhere from th 6-10, me being a th 10 at the time. We had an amazing run and lead a great clan to many war victories. Slowly our clan began dying but in 1 last dying effort to revive the clan I sent out a mail begging for the clan to reactivate itself, I wasn’t ready to give up our incredible clan we built from a small group of homies from global. 1 of the OG global chat players said,” you know what? Your right. Ima be active. I ain’t ready for this to end” or something to that effect. Slowly everyone began to come back and we were at our peak level of activity. This was back in the day when you could change clan settings without it saying so in chat. One day I logged in to find that our clan description had been changed. It said and I quote,” F*ck you *my username”. I was the leader. The only people in the clan that were Co-Leader and could change the clan description was the OG people that had started it. There was basically a war amongst our clan leaders. People accusing others of being the one ruining the clan, and the saddest part was it was one of the OG people so none of us really wanted to accuse anyone because we all thought we were homies. The clan discription continued to change to more vulgar and racial sayings. After many many members left, including many of the OG creators, the person finally confessed. His name was PuffyApple. He had been such a homie and a great person for so long but he had been the one doing all. He apologized and said sorry i dont know why I did it. It was too late. Everyone that was once loyal left the clan but a few. I didn’t know what to do so I went to raid while I decided. I decided i would kick him. When I got back he had kicked the remaining players and left a message to me saying,”Sorry dude” and left. My amazing clan was gone. But it’s ok I still remember the glory days of that clan. It will live on forever.

General Stories

Probably my th7 push to t2 2 years ago. It took a lot of time and I spent something like 6 months up in titans but I really enjoyed it. I would typically spend 4+ hours a day online searching for bases. Most of the bases I found that I would attack were th9s and 10s with either a lot of snipable buildings to get a 50% 1 star or an anti 3 star which I usually got 2 stars off of. The occasional th8 that I found was typically a three star. Something else interesting is the fact it took me three hours of boosting to get through all of the masters.
When I first joined the game (4+ years ago) I joined a small clan. It grew and we all had fun together. Everyone was nice and it was amazing. Unfortunately an a-hole convinced the leader so he can have leader for a bit and kicked everyone.Left the game for 4 years... I started playing again and I get the thought to recover my old account. It works and the memories flood back. Coc was a major part of my childhood and to find the account back meant a lot.
I still remember my first few good clans I've joined and the fun banter I'd get in. I found some screenshots recently of some weird conversations we've had and I still am friends with some of the guys on facebook and snapchat. My most favorite memory is when I mentioned liking some boy (im a girl) and some guys was like "oh... girl or gay?" I also liked having arguments about who was going to kick next
It’s not that amazing but back in the day i used to play with my friends in primary school just before the clan war update, and we talked for hours and hours how clan war could be a thing. Ideas came up such as all clan members donate troops to the clan leader and he/she does one massive attack with a thousand or so troop space. This memory will stick with me for a long time
I love recruiting, so every time I bring new members to my clan that’s a good memory. I also just really enjoy chatting with all the friends I’ve made over the years on this game, talking to my clan mates, winning wars. Memorably, my clan recently went on a 31 war win streak we put our heart and soul in. That was great. This game has brought me a lot of joy over the years.
I remember when I was a rushed TH6, had to be in 2014 or something like that. The old days with crack head Goblin and pervert Giant. The stars to indicate troop levels. You had to train in each individual barracks. Global chat was filled with BD clans, and "Any Girl?". When the max Town Hall was TH10 with blue walls. The simpler times were the truly the best times.
Back in the 5th grades years ago, me and my friends would bring our tablets to school and would play clash together. We would schedule the wars so that we could attack together at school so we can be as coordinated as possible. It also resulted in me ruining my iPad by dropping it while my friends were attacking for me while I was holding it. Good times lmao
My friends from school would start playing clash of clans for about 2 weeks but then stop playing. This happened every year and every few months and since I enjoyed the game I would grind and have the best base out of all my friends. Now I feel a sense of pride and accomplishment when I show them my strong base.
Either getting excited at school knowing that I had more trophies than everyone in the country or at 10pm sitting there reaching legend league on my th8 account. If not those, it was certainly a great moment when the squad gathered round to watch me upgrade to th13 at school when it just came out
Staying up the night to loot dark elixir at TH7 to upgrade barb king and hogs. Also to generally making new friends, learning new tactics, and getting better at the game. Also to admire the valks from TH8 coz they are the most aesthetically pleasing troop to look at🤭
There was a super rushed th11 that was in the same clan as me. A year and a half later that player was #1 in Canada I now realize that it probably wasn’t the same person and it was probably someone with the same same
Honestly, after a long time of leaving and coming back to the game and finally reaching th9. I feel like the game truely starts at th9 and i'm really into the game now.
Town hall 9 was the best town hall because there were so many unique strategies and I'd consider it the first time I actually became a successful competitive attacker.
In 2016, me and cousin thought someone was backing but it turns out that they weren't hacking and we took it so seriously lol.
That one cold winter night in my bed while I had a training boost on and grinded while on my tv watched YouTube
It gives me the option if I want to play, I can. I can also put it down for a few days and jump back into it.
When you got attacked and your army camps was destroyed you lost your army too and had to retrain
Discussing our wat strategies back when me and my high school class mates had a clan together
Global chat and an active clan chat where i know all the people. Also 2014 req & leave clans
Staying up until 1 am pushing to titan league with my best friend.
Helping a legend league clasher in global find a top level clan.
town hall sniping to get to masters as a th7 on my main account
Just farming or pushing and talking to random people in global
My favorite memory is absolutely annihilating my friend’s base
That feeling when you went back to the game after years.
I'm not sure, every moment playing it was fun:D
The tutorial in my new account.
My friend introducing it to me
North 44 and Jorge Yao
When i first got it
Global chat ofc
The funny bases
Global chat
Global Chat
Being lit

Progress/Upgrade Stories

When I maxed my TH9 in my main account. I took a 6 month break and downloaded clash again when I went to visit my cousins in Bakersfield. My base was rushed asf, level 6 walls, level 4 defenses and no king or queen. That’s summer when I visited them was the hottest it’s been in years so I stayed inside for the majority of the time so I had a lot of time to farm. Long story short I maxed out by the time I came back home and was really happy
My first time unlocking the barb king and a couple of teslas on th8. This was back in around 2013-2014, I remembered I was hyped on getting my own hero. I was also glad upon unlocking the teslas because back then it dealt twice dps damage or so to pekkas (back then, 14 year old me thought pekkas were the ultimate badass troops), so I thought; oh here it is, the ultimate defense buildings at that level back then.
When I finally maxed out TH9 (excluding heroes). I was very rushed (gold walls and level 5 heroes) when I upgraded to TH9. I returned to the game about a year later and began to play consistently. After about 4~5 months I fully maxed TH9 excluding heroes.
One of my favorite times in the game was finally getting to th9 since i was eager to get all the new stuff (Xbow, Queen) so i smacked a hammer of building on my town hall and i was at th9, the town hall that was the max one when i heard about the game
I’m not too involved with the game, I picked it up with the intention of just relaxing and playing it, so probably when I got my heroes to 50/50/20
When I came back a few months ago after not playing since 2016 and everything was so cheap, and so many collector raids were available
When I got the barbarian king, I was incredibly excited. One of my best memories.
Getting my queen to 30. Or generally maxing out any th is pretty satisfying to me
Getting dark elixer for the first time
maxing out my th9 when th9 was the max
When I unlocked my dragon in th 7
Donating max troops with th10

Friendship Stories

I was in a mediocre clan that had a couple really active members (2-3 hours playtime a day on average), but most just logged in like twice a day. I added one of the active members on kik and we chatted for quite while every evening for like a month, their birthday was coming up and they reminded me like every day of it and made kind of a big deal about that I shouldn't forget about it. I told them I wouldn't (and didn't) and told them my birthday too (which was like 8 months later) then after a while they quit the game and we lost contact, but after I hadn't spoken to them in like 5 months they still congratulated me on my birthday, which was a big surprise and very much appreciated.
I was in band class when this game first came out around December of 2012. I would’ve been 12 or 13 years old in 7th grade. My friend had just told me this new game had came out and he was trying to get me to play it. It was booming with popularity and I thought it looked fun enough, so I downloaded it during my class and played in between practicing my trumpet and listening to my teacher talk. I quickly became addicted to it and eventually I was the best player at my school. I kept playing all throughout high school, and even into college where I am now almost graduated. That game was clash of clans and I haven’t stopped playing for more than a week or so since.
My most favorite memory of the game. Ya know there’s so many to choose from. But one that most likely stands out to me is when I built a clan from lvl 1 to lvl 10 with a friend. It brought us closer in real life. And with discord it brought the clan from just clan mates to friends who share memes and such. I have gotten to know so many people that used to be “just clan mates” but are now game friends that I talk to daily on discord. That just has to be my favorite memory from the game because it means so much to me. There’s just a lot of satisfaction from growing a clan like that. Dedication and trusting people.
one of the main reasons I still play this game is because of the friends I have made with the players in my clan. I've been in the same clan for 4 years and not only do we all take the game seriously we truly treat one another like family. many of us have met up in person and we've gone hiking and played football together, just to name a few. the social aspect of this game is really big and I'm not too sure if I'd still be playing today if it weren't for my clan.
My favorite memory of the game was the friends I made. I was young and stupid and rushed my base to th9. It was when I joined my “ex-clan” that I finally realized how much this game would impact me. There were many friendships made that I feel will last a long time. My favorite memory was not necessarily about the game, but rather the connections I made with it.
Being in middle school about 6-7 years ago and joining clans with my friends, then having someone kick everyone out and making a new clan. It was annoying at the time but now I look back on it very fondly.
Getting back home from school and having a good time with my friends ( this was like 5 years ago and they all quit a long time ago) We would play for hours, sometimes to 2am on school nights
Leading my first clan at release with a bunch of high-school friends. We all played during school or athletic events and I remember rushing to townhall 7 to donate dragons for everyone.
not really a good memory but definetely one of my favourites. Long story short, i talked someone out of suicide, i joined their clan and talked with them and got them help.
Being in my second clan in general. Made some really good friends who were in their high teens when I was barely 12. Felt part of a family really. It sucked to leave them:(
Made some friends in USA and when I visited USA met with them. They hosted a dinner for me. It was amazing experience. Moreover got a nice tour of Detroit with them.
I had a clanmate who was terminally ill the clan had around 13 total members and we where all friend but hadn't met in real life. So most of us all went to visit him
Just being able to play with my friends and family and having fun and chatting outside the game too. Fun way to keep together online
Chilling with friends during my teens just to plan out a war attack and together watching it succeed or fail horrendously
My co-leader came to visit from another country and we had an absolute blast visiting wineries and playing clash.
I just enjoy having conversations with my clan mates
Playing with my school friends as a kid
Playing it with my friends every summer

Clan Stories

Starting my own clan has been one of my best experiences in the game. It has actually helped me develop some life skills like leadership, marketing and persuasion (to try to get people to join). I remember when I was a new th8 trying to build my clan with a guy I met from Reddit. We messaged back and forth trying to come up with a name, rules, how often we should declare wars etc. Once we made the clan, we slowly managed to get like 10 people to join. A BD from global joined and asked for coleader. I assumed he wanted to kick everyone in the clan once he had Co. Acting like an idiot, I promoted EVERYONE to Co so that way he wouldnt be able to kick them. However, I was also a Co at the time and was unable to demote them back to where they had been. I regretfully had to ask the Leader to come on and take care of everything. Luckily, he didnt kick ME too lol. After a few months the leader grew inactive and he gave me Leader. I have built the clan to level 15 and it has been a great learning experience
My favorite memory was creating my first successful clan. I was TH8 at the time and my brother and I were in Wisconsin Dells. I must’ve been no older than 11. (I’m 16 now) I would play on my moms iPad and when creating this clan we focus on getting as many people as possible. We got 50 people within an hour. Then we kicked some of the bad people and then bam TH10’s we’re joining (max th). Then by the end of the week we gave one guy co and he kicked the entire clan. Pretty sure this is where my trust issues started lol.
Back when I was a th7, I joined a new clan, I was fairly rushed back then, so I had difficulty finding a clan competent clan in the first place, let alone long term. I joined this clan, expecting to be kicked at some point, but no. The leader was kind, and told me that I could stay, if I fixed my rush. This guy was like a teacher to me, and still is. I wouldn’t be as good at the game as I am now without any of this guys help.
Back when we were all TH 5 or 6, this person joined our clan who was top town hall, maybe th10 at the time. He donated all these fantastic troops and made us feel pretty lucky. He stayed with us for a couple months then moved on, maybe to do the same for another clan. I think his or her name was joj*o. Many of us are TH12 or 13 now, but those were fun times.
Right now, I'm in a great clan that's always active. We just created a new clan for our mini accounts so that we have more room for people in the main clan. This has made it way easier to play my mini accounts and I think every clan should do this.
When I saw a th11 join our clan back when th11 was max. We were a clan with the highest member being th9, so it was a pretty big deal
Making a clan with some buddies and just messing around together
Being promoted to elder and then to co-leader a year later
Building up a clan from only random people met on global
Joining a clan from reddit, was fun while it lasted
Getting promoted to Co-Leader in my beloved clan
Creating my own clan for the very first time
first few months of joining my clan
Starting a clan with all your friends
Getting promoted in my clan.
Finding a good clan finally
Being the leader of a clan
When the clan turned lvl10

War Stories

Back before friendly wars, or SC really supporting competitive play, the competitive scene was home grown and self organised. New players wouldn't know a time where you had no option to challenge a certain clan. To make that happen it would take two clans coming together, contacting each other out of game and communicating a plan. Every player would have to calculate their war weight, spreadsheets were creating mapping out each clans war weight. You would have to make sure your clan mates didn't upgrade or drop a new defense at the wrong time to create an unfair match up... and then all the cats are herded, and both clans are ready... the clan leaders would press 'search' at the same time and hope for the best. The first time we pulled off a match with the clan we wanted to compete with, 30 v 30, it was glorious. It was something we all wanted to do from the beginning - challenge the clan you wanted in a contest that was totally balanced. From here, community organised leagues were born - something that gave Supercell the push to start the CWL. I'll always remember when we matched that first time. The chat blew up and we were so psyched. It was beautiful.
I joined a clan called GOBS LIMITED, where we only upgraded barracks to level 4, and only upgraded goblins in the lab. It was the most fun I’d had in years. Then SC introduced three anti engineering patches that completely killed us for about two years. I always looked back on that time as the funnest and most memorable thing to happen to me in a game. Then, level 8 goblins happened. All the dead players saw it, and dusted off their gob accounts. Some of us had kept going over the years, in our own clans or hopping around looking for a new home that wanted a goblin. But we all got back together and started finding war matches. Our years of effort had not been in vain, and we continue to win our wars. We’re currently undefeated with a 16-0 score since GOBS LIMITED has been raised from the dead. We are still growing, so if you’d like to join us search up our new feeder clan GOBS INC™️ (Use the emoji or the search algo can’t find us). We’d love to have another goblin in our horde. You won’t regret it. -Frozen Goblins
Joining a clan called Darker Knight for the first time 5 yrs ago. I was in a really bad clan my with my friends who were all rushed or th3. I noticed the clan sucked ass so I left and went to global. I talked to this th10 (which was the highest th at the time) and ig he saw something in me because he recruited my th4 lookin ass to his clan. The clan was amazing. I got max troops for the first time and it was truly amazing. I'm still in the same clan (but its like a feeder clan) and the clan has gone passed its glory but its still solid. One of my favorite memories from the clan was when I first unlocked dragons and needed to get a star on a th9 to win the game. The clan helped me strategise for 50%. I went in and nervously placed down my dragons. In 2 minutes of tension filled placements I got 50% and won the war! Good memories
About 4-5 years ago now my current clan used to be our school clan. we were in a war, probably one of our first, and i was the only person in the clan with a dark barracks. like 4 people had attacked their number 2 and no one could get a star. the leader at the time said, “can someone please take out number 2.” i responded “i got this” and then proceeded to 3-star him with a minion swarm in less than a minute
I was TH6 (in 2015) and the two stock attacks at the time were Giant/HealeWiz or Loons. We ran into a difficult base where the loons circled around the AD and got picked off. The giants pathing was in a way where they missed a cannon and time failed. I made a small change (everyone was taking healer and wiz in CC, I took minions to take out the cannon). My first 3 star which I made a plan myself.
I used to have a th 9 account before it got banned. My favorite story was when my entire army died against a th8 cause of a valkyrie in the cc that brutalized my giants. My queen walk took down half the base and the town hall, and got me a 2 star instead of a loss. It was also first time queen walking.
Usually war wins or getting 2 x 3. I guess my favourite was doing the last attack with less than a minute left knowing I needed a 2 with >78%. I had to attack a town hall higher and clinched it with 79%. Loads of spectators and I know they would not have expected me to get it done.
The first time I 3 starred in war back in 2016 as a town hall 9. It was much harder back then and I'll never forget how happy I was that I was able to 3 star another base.
I remember the first time I three starred a Th9 with GoHo on my Th9. I felt like I was a legend then, but I can do it pretty consistently now. The first time was the best.
going over a 3 star plan, skitching it, talking live on discord, then watching the new guy clutch a 3 star in the last minute of war to win it for us.
when my th8 account gave me a th4 account matchup and i beat him with a barb king and 3 balloons
Hitting late in a war, and getting back to back 3 stars to win it for my clan.
Not specific but I like the nail biting finishes to wars or comebacks in wars
When I 3 starred a TH12 as a TH11 which helped secure the win in a CWL war!
Attacking in the war while in school during breaks with my friends
I have had the most fun during very close and competitive wars.
When I won an attack with only archers against a max th9 base
Betting with friends on clan wars not money but snacks
Winning a clan war by the skin of our collective teeth
Getting the last second triple is always up there
Close war wins. Clutch 3 stars
When wars first game out
Clan wars being added

Funny/Wierd

On my then mid-th9, I would leave my clan and go into global asking for a clan. I'd wait until a really low clan invited me, and then I'd join that clan. Clans with younger players and no players at or above my level works best. I'd then do the whole "Thanks for the invite" and "Is this an active clan?" routine. Then I'd request wall breakers, and 9 times out of 10 would get lvl 2 wizards or giants. I'd then say something along the lines of "This clan is horrible! I asked for wall breakers and got (whatever I got)!" And then I'd leave. Probably not the nicest thing ever but whenever a clan actually donates wall breakers I stick around for a bit longer and make small talk. I'll miss global.
definitely when I tricked my clan that my 2 accounts were 2 people for a few months. I even had a couple of conversations with my self, and had everyone convinced that I am me and my friend. I exposed myself and they were so close to kicking me, great times
back when global was a thing i named myself defnotahopper and would hop bases like a mf 😂😂 and i remember how hype i was when the lava hound was released
Not a fond memory but when I was younger some guy in global chat told me Santa wasn’t real. That ruined my life back then.
When I was in war and some one donated me all wall breakers. I literally left
Teaching my clanmate in how to change the sheets of his bed!
Getting head while attacking in a war
You ;)
Penis
submitted by Schuckman to ClashOfClans [link] [comments]

The Hell App

I’m from New York, upstate in the mountains. I’m also a senior in high school, which means I’m worried about the Corona lockdown and how all that mess is going to impact my chances once I’m finally able to get out into the real world. I mean, it’s not as though things weren’t bad enough already.
Anyway, my high school, which only has about a hundred students per grade, has long since canceled all official school functions, which included our graduation ceremony. Personally, I don’t really care about walking across a stage to get a piece of paper, but I know my parents are disappointed, as are parents all over our little hamlet. I gather that some of my classmates are disappointed as well, but mostly just the ones at the top of the class who were going to get special recognition when their names were called. To hell with them.
Not that this really needs saying, either, but if you’re from my generation, your smartphone is probably well-integrated into your daily life. You probably also have at least one friend, though, who doesn’t really fit in where smartphones are concerned, who doesn’t care whether their latest tweet is liked or not—if they even tweet at all. That’s me. I actually have a smartphone, but more often than not I don’t even know where it is. I don’t like social media as a rule, and stay away from it as much as I can.
Because of that, I was more than a little irritated when the geniuses in our school administration decided that they’d use some sort of community chat room to hold a virtual graduation for us, and even more irritated when somebody decided that each and every one of us in our graduating class would have to prepare some sort of short video about patriotism or economic prosperity or general optimism about the future as a final assignment before we graduated. The staff would then choose a handful of the videos to be included in our virtual graduation—for the love of god. Reluctantly—and only because I wanted to graduate—I made a silly little video and used their app to submit it along with all the others.
There was a wormy little guy in our class who everybody called Cleave—I think his name was actually Bernard, but that’s beside the point. He didn’t have any friends as far as I could tell, and had often been the subject of ridicule and bullying over the years. Not by me, mind you, but I can’t say that I ever stood up for him, either. He was just odd, and always seemed to be either in the computer lab or walking the halls with his nose glued to whatever device he happened to be carrying.
Apparently, someone in our class had gotten hold of Cleave’s patriotism video, and had shared it with everybody else. It was about ten seconds long, and was a short stream of a carpenter driving a nail into a board with the National Anthem playing in the background. It was pretty lame, and it didn’t take long for the cruel-minded in our class to start with the memes. One last chance to rub Cleave’s nose in it, so rub they did. I swear . . . I even like some of those people, but I’ll never understand why they feel the need to act so heartlessly.
I was over at my friend Ronnie’s house yesterday morning and we were talking until his phone dinged and interrupted our conversation. Another thing I’ll never understand is why something coming in on your phone is always more important than what somebody in your physical presence is saying—but I digress. Anyway, Ronnie started laughing, saying that ol’ Cleave had decided to send out a replacement video. He tried to get me to watch it, but I refused on principle, so he told me about it. Seems that it was pretty much the same as the first one, except when the carpenter had driven the nail into the board, he’d stopped, looked into the camera, said Gentlemen, start your engines, and had then placed his hand on the board and smashed his thumb with his hammer, sending blood spurting everywhere. Unlike my friend Ronnie, I didn’t find it funny, but I had to admit that Cleave was one weird dude. I mean, I still didn’t care to watch it, but that was pretty messed up.
Around noon, I got a text on my phone just as Ronnie did. As we’d soon discover, the text was sent to everybody in our class. All it said was 4:00—high school student parking lot—don’t miss, or you’ll regret it. Pretty obscure—and to make it more mysterious, the text was from an anonymous source. Ronnie checked around, and nobody knew who had sent it. Still, at about a quarter to four, we hopped in Ronnie’s car and drove to the high school.
We weren’t the first to arrive, nor were we the last. As it drew ever nearer to four o’clock, it looked to me like just about everybody in our class had showed up—as had a number of juniors and sophomores. It was strange—but who knew what drove the pack mentality of teenagers. You just had to go with it.
Everybody was starting to get a little rowdy, probably because we were excited to be in a social setting of any sort—it’d been a while for most of us because of the stay at home order. Just when I was beginning to think that somebody’s desire to see everybody together one last time had been the reason for the mysterious text, Cleave came driving up in his rattrap of a car and parked close to the herd. We all stopped talking and watched as he got out of his car carrying a hammer. He walked to the rear of his car, unlocked his trunk and let it fly open, and then he climbed up on the car’s roof. A few people laughed, and several others made derogatory remarks. Cleave had a silly look on his face—which he always did—but this one was different somehow.
Some girl said something about Cleave’s panties showing and the group around her laughed, but Cleave paid them no mind. In a jerking motion, he raised his hammer up over his head, and then hurled it as hard as he could into the windshield of the nearest car to him, which happened to be a sports car that belonged to the captain of the football team, a guy named Rocky. The hammer lodged itself there, like an erect penis.
Rocky’s body sort of spasmed, and then he whirled toward Cleave. I was pretty sure we were all about to see him beat the living shit out of Cleave, but before Rocky moved, Cleave yelled out over the crowd. In his nasally voice, he said Gentlemen, start your engines. Then, his silly expression returned.
No one moved for a moment. Finally, though, Diane, a cheerleader type, walked to the rear of Cleave’s car, reached in the trunk, and pulled out another hammer. She then walked to Rocky, and as he stood perfectly still and watched her, she raised the hammer high and brought it down right between his eyes. He fell like a stone.
Except for Rocky’s rasping breaths, there was total silence. That blow had to have caused him serious injury, yet no one was moving to help him. I was a ways from him, and despite the surreal nature of the moment, I decided that I would go over to see if there was anything I could do. Before I’d taken a step, however, pandemonium swept the crowd. Everyone seemed to rush toward Cleave’s car all at once, to the trunk. Those that made it there managed to come away with yet more hammers, a variety of different kinds. Those who didn’t make it were locked in seemingly mortal combat with fellow classmates—and when I say mortal, I mean mortal. I saw not only punching and kicking, but clawing like wild animals, and choking, and biting. I actually saw a guy bite a hunk of flesh from a girl’s chest and commence to chew it like a piece of steak, except he had blood running down his chin. I saw a friend of mine, Michael, lying on the pavement, a friend of his straddling his torso and driving his hammer over and over into Michael’s ruined forehead. Everywhere I looked there was animalistic rage, and carnage, and blood.
What I was seeing was bad enough, but the sounds were absolutely horrifying: guttural screams everywhere, cries of agony, thuds of hammers cracking into skulls, and legs, and chests. I have to admit it—I froze. I couldn’t believe what was going on all around me, complete and absolute mayhem, and it was for real. My classmates were dying right in front of my eyes, and I didn’t have the faintest idea what to do. I was completely unprepared.
I don’t know why, but I remember looking up and seeing Cleave, still on his car’s roof, looking down at all the carnage going on around him, still wearing that silly expression on his face. I don’t know how he did it or how I knew, but in that moment I was absolutely certain he was responsible. He had done something, and this had been his intention. The ultimate revenge perpetrated by a computer geek, for all the cruelties and abuses he’d suffered since we were little kids.
I actually had the thought that I had to go to him; I had to yank him off the car and get him to make it stop. But before I could move I saw two of my classmates bearing down on me—a boy and a girl. They were both wild-eyed and screaming; Lauren had a hammer raised over her head, and Thomas seemed to be missing a hand, blood pouring out the end of his arm. I reacted on instinct. I went low and flipped Lauren over my back—she was crazed, but still light as a feather—and as Thomas approached, growling and biting his own tongue, I kicked him as hard as I could in the groin. He let out with a blood-curdling yelp and fell to his knees.
It had become clear to me that I had to get moving. That I hadn’t been infected with hysteria as most everyone else had hadn’t made me immune from their hostilities. I dodged through the crowd till I got back to Ronnie’s car. Ronnie wasn’t there, nor were his keys—damnit! I turned just in time to see Ronnie coming up behind me, his hammer swinging down toward my head. I managed to dodge the blow, and his hammer careened off the roof of his car and clattered to the concrete. I punched him in the jaw, and he went down. No sooner than he’d hit the pavement, a girl named Becky came down on him and began clawing at his eyes. I kicked her in the side of the head, and then I took off. I had to get out of there. I couldn’t save anyone—that much had become clear.
The parking lot was alive with pure, unadulterated bedlam, and it was of the most evil kind. I saw things happening right before my eyes that I’d only seen in video games—never in my wildest dreams would I have ever imagined I’d see them in real life. I ducked a hammer blow, but wound up directly in the crosshairs of another. The boy, Bruce, was about to bring his hammer down on my head, but a girl, Jamie, bit down on his leg. Bruce roared and turned his attention to her.
Just as I thought I was about to make it out of the din, as I dodged yet another attack, I ran smack into someone, and it knocked me down. I even saw stars for a split second, but when my vision cleared, I saw that I was sitting face-to-face with a girl named Jamie. To my relief, she looked just as terrified and disoriented as I felt. Just then, two guys who appeared to be biting at each other’s throats came rolling between us and across our laps. Luckily, they kept rolling.
I’d never really spoken to Jamie—she’d only been going to our school for a couple of years—but something told me she was about to become my new best friend. I told her we needed to get out of there, to head for the woods. With her eyes wide and filled with fright, she nodded. I looked back toward the crowd as we stood, and what I saw defied belief. My classmates, most of whom had known each other their whole lives, were going at each other like rabid dogs. There were bodies on the ground, lifeless bodies, and even they were still being attacked, beaten and bitten. I also noticed that Cleave was no longer on his car. I wondered if he’d fallen prey to his own ploy.
I took Jamie by the hand, and we ran. We ran across an open field for a hundred yards or so until we reached the edge of the forest, and only then did we dare stop running. We took cover behind some bushes before looking back toward the parking lot, and to my surprise, at least, the hostilities seemed to have ceased for the most part. There was the occasional skirmish, the random scream, and several times I saw someone attack a body that was lying lifeless on the ground, but things had calmed considerably. It was almost as though the ones standing had decided that they were all on the same team, and were surveying the field as victors would. It was eerie in the extreme. Just then, though, I heard a shout come from the edge of the field, off to the side. It was Cleave, and he was yelling at the victors and pointing at the forest—directly at us. The victors seemed to focus their attention in our direction, and then as if of one mind, they all started running toward us.
Jamie yelled a string of profanities as I was standing and dragging her to her feet, and we were off, heading for the deep of the forest. I caught my foot on a root and went down face first; Jamie helped me to my feet, and we were off again. We ran as hard as we could for as long as we could, dodging trees, scaling and descending inclines, and we even leapt across a stream. We ran until we couldn’t run anymore, and then we found cover behind a rock ledge before we looked back to see what might’ve been coming.
We could hear crazed yelling, some closer than I would’ve liked, some farther away, and there were sounds of bodies moving through brush. The canopy was fairly thick where we were, so there were lots of shadows, a fact that would work to our advantage. We continued to hear the noises, the yells, the occasional ungodly roar, but no one ever came into our view. Once we’d rested long enough, we both agreed we should probably get moving. So, that’s what we did, though more calculated than before. We stayed low and moved from cover to cover best we could, under control and deeper into the forest, trying not to make sounds than would give us away.
We must’ve moved in that manner for half an hour, until we finally came upon what appeared to be a firebreak, a clearing of trees and brush about twenty yards wide and stretching as far as we could see in either direction. We crouched at the firebreak’s edge, scanning the area to make sure it was safe to come out from the cover of the trees. Once we were satisfied there was no immediate danger, we started across.
No sooner than we’d come into the clear, however, I saw Cleave step into the firebreak from the other side. Jamie and I froze; Cleave just stared at us with that silly look on his face. Then, before I could think of what to say to him or what to do, he started yelling, that he’d found us, that there was fresh meat. We started to go back the way we’d come, but we could hear crashing noises coming up behind us, and pretty soon I saw movement. There was yelling, and growling sounds, and I could feel my heart in my throat.
We started to the right, but several of my classmates came out of the woods just a few dozen yards away. The same thing to the left. In my mind, that left us but one option. We had to go straight ahead and run for our lives. Jamie agreed, but before we took a single step in that direction, of all things, a bear came into the clearing directly behind Cleave. You’ve got to be fucking kidding me!, I remember thinking. Has he brainwashed the animals as well? I soon got the answer to that question, though, and it was a resounding no.
The bear raised up on its hind legs, and came down on Cleave’s shoulders like it was trying to stomp him into the ground. We didn’t move. Neither did my deranged classmates who had found their way to the firebreak—not for a few seconds, anyway. Then, as though they’d been given a new directive, or perhaps because they’d been confused by the introduction of a truly wild animal into the equation, they all headed for the bear, who was now mauling a screaming and defenseless Cleave. One by one they began hurling themselves at the bear, those who had hammers swinging them wildly as they charged. The bear seemed intent to stand its ground, and swiped at them with its powerful paws.
Jamie and I didn’t hesitate—we took off in what we perceived to be the safest direction, which would also lead us deeper into the forest, and it was getting darker by the minute. But we had to think of the moment; it was all about survival.
We could hear the battle rage as we fled the scene. There were snarls from the bear, roars from my classmates, and cries of agony. As we moved farther and farther away, however, the sounds grew more faint until we couldn’t hear them at all. We didn’t stop, though. We kept moving until it had become totally dark, and the only noises we heard were those common to the forest.
We guessed we had to be a number of miles from the clearing where we’d last seen our pursuers, and it had been a while since we’d heard anything from them. I don’t know how comfortable either of us truly was with the idea of stopping, but we did. It also occurred to us that we were lost, but somehow that seemed to be a secondary consideration.
As I’d mentioned, I’m not a phone person. Probably because of that fact coupled with the trauma we’d been operating under, only then did it occur to me that we should call someone. As fate would have it, though, I didn’t have my phone on me—I think I’d left it in Ronnie’s car. Come to find out, Jamie wasn’t much of a phone person, either, but she did have her phone with her. As it turned out, though, out here in the middle of the forest, her phone had no reception—at least not for phone calls and texts. She was able to access the Internet occasionally, though, for what good that’d do. We tried higher ground, and got the same result.
We found the best shelter we could, which was a rock ledge guarded by brush and a number of granite boulders, and we hunkered down. We listened for a long while, and never heard anything that sounded like our classmates. We discussed whether or not we should try to find our way back to town, but quickly decided that to be a foolish idea. It would be best for us to stay where we were, and hope we made it through till morning. Not only were some of our classmates still possibly out there, but there was at least one bear in the general vicinity—assuming they hadn’t managed to kill it—and there were any number of creatures in the forest that could do us ill. All considered, it was best to stay put.
I leaned against the rock ledge, and Jamie leaned up against me, her head resting on my shoulder. At some point I put my arm around her. I’m not sure if she managed to sleep any, but I think I might’ve dozed once or twice—nothing like real sleep, though. I was too wired to really sleep. Also, the occasional ghoulish roar from the distance didn’t help.
Now, however, the sun has just started to rise, and we just had what I consider to be a fairly disturbing conversation. Neither Jamie nor I watched Cleave’s second video, the one where the man said to start your engines and then smashed his thumb, but I’d bet most everybody else did. It was crazy to think, but what if that video had hypnotized the people that watched it, cast them under some sort of spell? Yeah, ridiculous—but then again, what we’d witnessed yesterday was nothing short of insane. What if? If it wasn’t the video, what was it? There had to be something. There had to be a reason all our classmates simultaneously lost their minds and began viciously going after one another. Were our classmates the only ones who watched the video? Was what happened in our parking lot an isolated event? Was it even safe for us to head back? To head anywhere?
All I know for sure is this—I’m hungry, and I’m thirsty. We can’t stay here behind these boulders forever. We have to . . . do something. Oh, and Jamie just checked her phone. She had one bar and managed to call her mother, but got no answer. I tried both my parents—no answer from either. She called 9-1-1—again, no answer. I don’t know what to do.
submitted by WordDogger to nosleep [link] [comments]

Have you just been really unlucky, or does your betting strategy need some work? Methods to Estimate Prediction Error

Everyone has gotten unlucky on a seemingly sure bet that backfired. We hate losing that nail biter. It hurts a lot more than that blowout loss where you weren’t even close. The question is: should each loss (and alternatively each win) be treated equally?
Margin of Victory
If most of your wins are by a single point and you’re getting blown out in your losses, it might be a sign that your Win/Loss performance is due for a regression. Alternatively, if your only losses are of the nail biter variety, you might just be on the wrong side of variance. As an assessment, it might be helpful to measure your margin of victory on your wagers.
The margin of victory (“MOV”) measurement is a simple but useful measurement of how well your bets are performing. Since bets are generally binary outcomes (win or loss) there is a quite a bit of variance when it comes to measurement by simply wins and losses. Using the MOV measurement can give you a more precise measurement that isn’t as influenced by the binary nature of wager outcomes. This is identical to evaluating team performance using net differential as opposed to W-L.
MOV Example:
Say you placed the 15 NBA ATS bets below, winning 7 and losing 8 during the first week of March:


Date Wager Odds Win/Loss
3/1/2020 Kings -7.5 -110 L
3/1/2020 Nuggets -2.5 -110 W
3/2/2020 Cavaliers +10 -110 L
3/3/2020 76ers +12.5 -110 L
3/3/2020 Warriors +15 -110 W
3/4/2020 Pacers +11.5 -110 L
3/4/2020 Thunder -8 -110 L
3/4/2020 Blazers -7.5 -110 W
3/5/2020 Raptors -9 -110 L
3/6/2020 Bulls +2 -110 L
3/6/2020 Celtics -1.5 -110 L
3/6/2020 Mavericks -7.5 -110 W
3/7/2020 Grizzlies -6.5 -110 W
3/8/2020 Pacers +6.5 -110 W
3/8/2020 Magic +8 -110 W
Wins 7
Losses 8
Win % 46.7%
A 46.7% winning percentage at -110 is certainly not a profitable record when betting the same amount every time. We could just assume that these weren’t very good bets. What we’d rather do, however, is examine our margin of victory for these games. The first wager of Kings -7.5, for example, was a game that the favorite failed to cover by 1.5 points, winning the game by 6 points when favorite bettors had to lay 7.5. Your wager (Kings -7.5) would have a MOV of -1.5 since your bet lost by 1.5 points.

Date Wager Pts Opp Pts Result Line W/L MOV
3/1/2020 Kings -7.5 106 100 -6 -7.5 L -1.5
We can do this same analysis for each wager and find that your MOV averaged 17.5 points in your wins and -3.1 in your losing wagers. Thus despite a losing record, your wagers had a total MOV of 6.5 points.

Date Wager Odds Win/Loss MOV
3/1/2020 Kings -7.5 -110 L -1.5
3/1/2020 Nuggets -2.5 -110 W 12.5
3/2/2020 Cavaliers +10 -110 L -3
3/3/2020 76ers +12.5 -110 L -0.5
3/3/2020 Warriors +15 -110 W 31
3/4/2020 Pacers +11.5 -110 L -7.5
3/4/2020 Thunder -8 -110 L -1
3/4/2020 Blazers -7.5 -110 W 13.5
3/5/2020 Raptors -9 -110 L -1
3/6/2020 Bulls +2 -110 L -4
3/6/2020 Celtics -1.5 -110 L -6.5
3/6/2020 Mavericks -7.5 -110 W 17.5
3/7/2020 Grizzlies -6.5 -110 W 10.5
3/8/2020 Pacers +6.5 -110 W 9.5
3/8/2020 Magic +8 -110 W 28
Wins 7 17.5
Losses 8 -3.1
Average MOV 6.5
This certainly indicates that variance was not on your side as you were on the losing side of several one-possession games and most of your wins occurred at pretty comfortable MOVs.
Now certainly there are limitations to an MOV analysis. First, since it is an “average” measurement, it can be influenced by outliers. You might consider capping the MOV (say a 10 or 15-point maximum MOV) to reduce the impact of outliers.
Second, different sports have different key numbers and a simple MOV analysis does not account for key numbers or non-normal distributions.
Lastly, this type of analysis doesn’t translate as easily for moneyline wagers. To make an apples to apples comparison, you would need to assess the average score differential at various moneylines. We computed the average run differential of away teams in the MLB based on the breakeven win probability of their moneyline odds in the graph linked below.
Normalizing Run Differentials Based on Implied Win Probability
More Granular Measurements
For sports that have lumpy scoring (NFL, NHL, MLB) you might perform a similar analysis using even more granular data than scoring. For example, to remove cluster luck from baseball scoring, you might do an analysis of net base production or in football you might analyze yards per play or play success rates.
Grading Your Own Predictions
Now let’s say you’ve made a model to come up with your own predictions for games (we’ll cover several ways to do this in our model building section) and you want to assess your predictions vs the market (or someone else). In statistics and machine learning, two common ways of assessing performance are by the mean absolute error (“MAE”) and the root mean squared error (“RMSE”) of various models.
Mean Absolute Error
The great thing about these terms is that their names so accurately describe their calculations. The mean absolute error is the average (mean) of the absolute value of your model’s prediction error. So if you forecasted a game to be -5 and the game ended in -3 the absolute value of the error of your model was 2 points. Do that for every prediction and take the average. Simple enough.
Root Mean Squared Error
The root mean squared error is conceptually very similar to MAE except that you first 1) square your error term, then 2) take the average (mean) of the squared error terms and finally 3) take the squared root of those squared errors.
We’ve calculated the MAE and RMSE for the NBA ATS wagers that you made linked below. Naturally, since those wagers had a positive average MOV, we’re not surprised that the prediction error was less than the market.
MAE and RMSE
The difference between MAE and RMSE is that by squaring the error values, you are more heavily penalizing predictions with large errors. If large errors are significantly worse than smaller errors, then RMSE might be a better calculation for you to use. Otherwise MAE will work just fine.
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Probability Calculation Football Betting Tips explained Betking League Virtual Football Tricks 5th JULY(BOTH TEAM TO SCORE)(UNDER / OVER) FREE FOOTBALL BETTING TIPS TODAY THE BEST BETS FOR SUNDAY Sports Arbitrage Calculator - Excel Template for Arbitrage Betting FREE FIXED MATCHES HT/FTCORRECT SCOREUNDER&OVER BET TIPS -TODAY'S FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTIONS

The following surebet calculator will help you check whether given odds creates a surebet (arbitrage) opportunity. You can use it to quickly calculate the correct stakes for each outcome of your surebet, which guarantee a profit regardless to the final outcome of the event. American Odds are the default odds at American sportsbooks. These odds are based on winning $100 for a given bet. Betting a Favorite: The odds for favorites will have a minus (-) sign, and represent the money you need to risk to win $100. So if you're betting on the Packers at -140 against the Vikings, that means Green Bay is a slight favorite. Click on the calculator logo in the Sure bets section above, enter total amount you wish to bet and the calculator will automatically calculate the stakes needed at the different outcomes of the event. For more bet sure predictions you might also be interested in Value bets. 101 Surebet - Arbitrage betting FAQ . How do surebets work? Sure betting, also known as arbitrage betting or arbing is a way of making a guaranteed profit from the price differences between bookmakers odds. There is little risk involved with this betting strategy making it one of the more popular ways to make money online. 1. Free Sure Betting Tips For Today. There’s that old saying that the best things in life are free, and that adage can certainly be applied to daily analysis and betting predictions that are supplied by the JohnnyBet tipster community. Yes, you read that correctly, proven winning tips, with some of the best yield rates around, and you don’t even need to open your wallet to access them.

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Probability Calculation Football Betting Tips explained

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