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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020

Good Saturday afternoon to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020.

Fragile economic recovery faces first big test with June jobs report in the week ahead - (Source)

The second half of 2020 is nearly here, and now it’s up to the economy to prove that the stock market was right about a sharp comeback in growth.
The first big test will be the June jobs report, out on Thursday instead of its usual Friday release due to the July 4 holiday. According to Refinitiv, economists expect 3 million jobs were created, after May’s surprise gain of 2.5 million payrolls beat forecasts by a whopping 10 million jobs.
“If it’s stronger, it will suggest that the improvement is quicker, and that’s kind of what we saw in May with better retail sales, confidence was coming back a little and auto sales were better,” said Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets.
The second quarter winds down in the week ahead as investors are hopeful about the recovery but warily eyeing rising cases of Covid-19 in a number of states.
Stocks were lower for the week, as markets reacted to rising cases in Texas, Florida and other states. Investors worry about the threat to the economic rebound as those states move to curb some activities. The S&P 500 is up more than 16% so far for the second quarter, and it is down nearly 7% for the year. Friday’s losses wiped out the last of the index’s June gains.
“I think the stock market is looking beyond the valley. It is expecting a V-shaped economic recovery and a solid 2021 earnings picture,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. He expects large-cap company earnings to be up 30% next year, and small-cap profits to bounce back by 140%.
“I think the second half needs to be a ‘show me’ period, proving that our optimism was justified, and we’ll need to see continued improvement in the economic data, and I think we need to see upward revisions to earnings estimates,” Stovall said.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said she expects the recovery will not be as smooth as some expect, particularly considering the resurgence of virus outbreaks in sunbelt states and California.
“Now as I watch what’s happening I think it’s more likely to be rolling Ws,” rather than a V, she said. “It’s not just predicated on a second wave. I’m not sure we ever exited the first wave.”
Even without actual state shutdowns, the virus could slow economic activity. “That doesn’t mean businesses won’t shut themselves down, or consumers won’t back down more,” she said.

Election ahead

In the second half of the year, the market should turn its attention to the election, but Sonders does not expect much reaction to it until after Labor Day. RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 10 percentage points, and the odds of a Democratic sweep have been rising.
Biden has said he would raise corporate taxes, and some strategists say a sweep would be bad for business, due to increased regulation and higher taxes. Trump is expected to continue using tariffs, which unsettles the market, though both candidates are expected to take a tough stance on China.
“If it looks like the Senate stays Republican than there’s less to worry about in terms of policy changes,” Sonders said. “I don’t think it’s ever as binary as some people think.”
Stovall said a quick study shows that in the four presidential election years back to 1960, where the first quarter was negative, and the second quarter positive, stocks made gains in the second half.
Those were 1960 when John Kennedy took office, 1968, when Richard Nixon won; 1980 when Ronald Reagan’s was elected to his first term; and 1992, the first win by Bill Clinton. Coincidentally, in all of those years, the opposing party gained control of the White House.

Stimulus

The stocks market’s strong second-quarter showing came after the Fed and Congress moved quickly to inject the economy with trillions in stimulus. That unlocked credit markets and triggered a stampede by companies to restructure or issue debt. About $2 trillion in fiscal spending was aimed at consumers and businesses, who were in sudden need of cash after the abrupt shutdown of the economy.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both testify before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday on the response to the virus. That will be important as markets look ahead to another fiscal package from Congress this summer, which is expected to provide aid to states and local governments; extend some enhanced benefits for unemployment, and provide more support for businesses.
“So much of it is still so fluid. There are a bunch of fiscal items that are rolling off. There’s talk about another fiscal stimulus payment like they did last time with a $1,200 check,” said Cummins.
Strategists expect Congress to bicker about the size and content of the stimulus package but ultimately come to an agreement before enhanced unemployment benefits run out at the end of July. Cummins said state budgets begin a new year July 1, and states with a critical need for funds may have to start letting workers go, as they cut expenses.
The Trump administration has indicated the jobs report Thursday could help shape the fiscal package, depending on what it shows. The federal supplement to state unemployment benefits has been $600 a week, but there is opposition to extending that, and strategists expect it to be at least cut in half.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 12.2% from 13.3% in May. Cummins said he had expected 7.2 million jobs, well above the consensus, and an unemployment rate of 11.8%.
As of last week, nearly 20 million people were collecting state unemployment benefits, and millions more were collecting under a federal pandemic aid program.
“The magnitude here and whether it’s 3 million or 7 million is kind of hard to handicap to begin with,” Cummins said. Economists have preferred to look at unemployment claims as a better real time read of employment, but they now say those numbers could be impacted by slow reporting or double filing.
“There’s no clarity on how you define the unemployed in the Covid 19 environment,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “If there’s 30 million people receiving insurance, unemployment should be above 20%.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

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Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

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Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

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When Will The Economy Recover?

The economy is moving in the right direction, as many economic data points are coming in substantially better than what the economists expected. From May job gains coming in more than 10 million higher than expected and retail sales soaring a record 18%, how quickly the economy is bouncing back has surprised nearly everyone.
“As good as the recent economic data has been, we want to make it clear, it could still take years for the economy to fully come back,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Think of it like building a house. You get all the big stuff done early, then some of the small things take so much longer to finish; I’m looking at you crown molding.”
Here’s the hard truth; it might take years for all of the jobs that were lost to fully recover. In fact, during the 10 recessions since 1950, it took an average of 30 months for lost jobs to finally come back. As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, recoveries have taken much longer lately. In fact, it took four years for the jobs lost during the tech bubble recession of the early 2000s to come back and more than six years for all the jobs lost to come back after the Great Recession. Given many more jobs were lost during this recession, it could takes many years before all of them indeed come back.
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The economy is going the right direction, and if there is no major second wave outbreak it could surprise to the upside. Importantly, this economic recovery will still be a long and bumpy road.

Nasdaq - Russell Spread Pulling the Rubber Band Tight

The Nasdaq has been outperforming every other US-based equity index over the last year, and nowhere has the disparity been wider than with small caps. The chart below compares the performance of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 over the last 12 months. While the performance disparity is wide now, through last summer, the two indices were tracking each other nearly step for step. Then last fall, the Nasdaq started to steadily pull ahead before really separating itself in the bounce off the March lows. Just to illustrate how wide the gap between the two indices has become, over the last six months, the Nasdaq is up 11.9% compared to a decline of 15.8% for the Russell 2000. That's wide!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In order to put the recent performance disparity between the two indices into perspective, the chart below shows the rolling six-month performance spread between the two indices going back to 1980. With a current spread of 27.7 percentage points, the gap between the two indices hasn't been this wide since the days of the dot-com boom. Back in February 2000, the spread between the two indices widened out to more than 50 percentage points. Not only was that period extreme, but ten months before that extreme reading, the spread also widened out to more than 51 percentage points. The current spread is wide, but with two separate periods in 1999 and 2000 where the performance gap between the two indices was nearly double the current level, that was a period where the Nasdaq REALLY outperformed small caps.
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To illustrate the magnitude of the Nasdaq's outperformance over the Russell 2000 from late 1998 through early 2000, the chart below shows the performance of the two indices beginning in October 1998. From that point right on through March of 2000 when the Nasdaq peaked, the Nasdaq rallied more than 200% compared to the Russell 2000 which was up a relatively meager 64%. In any other environment, a 64% gain in less than a year and a half would be excellent, but when it was under the shadow of the surging Nasdaq, it seemed like a pittance.
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Share Price Performance

The US equity market made its most recent peak on June 8th. From the March 23rd low through June 8th, the average stock in the large-cap Russell 1,000 was up more than 65%! Since June 8th, the average stock in the index is down more than 11%. Below we have broken the index into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on simple share price as of June 8th. Decile 1 (marked "Highest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the highest share prices. Decile 10 (marked "Lowest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the lowest share prices. As shown, the highest priced decile of stocks are down an average of just 4.8% since June 8th, while the lowest priced decile of stocks are down an average of 21.5%. It's pretty remarkable how performance gets weaker and weaker the lower the share price gets.
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Nasdaq 2% Pullbacks From Record Highs

It's hard to believe that sentiment can change so fast in the market that one day investors and traders are bidding up stocks to record highs, but then the next day sell them so much that it takes the market down over 2%. That's exactly what happened not only in the last two days but also two weeks ago. While the 5% pullback from a record high back on June 10th took the Nasdaq back below its February high, this time around, the Nasdaq has been able to hold above those February highs.
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In the entire history of the Nasdaq, there have only been 12 periods prior to this week where the Nasdaq closed at an all-time high on one day but dropped more than 2% the next day. Those occurrences are highlighted in the table below along with the index's performance over the following week, month, three months, six months, and one year. We have also highlighted each occurrence that followed a prior one by less than three months in gray. What immediately stands out in the table is how much gray shading there is. In other words, these types of events tend to happen in bunches, and if you count the original occurrence in each of the bunches, the only two occurrences that didn't come within three months of another occurrence (either before or after) were July 1986 and May 2017.
In terms of market performance following prior occurrences, the Nasdaq's average and median returns were generally below average, but there is a pretty big caveat. While the average one-year performance was a gain of 1.0% and a decline of 23.6% on a median basis, the six occurrences that came between December 1999 and March 2000 all essentially cover the same period (which was very bad) and skew the results. Likewise, the three occurrences in the two-month stretch from late November 1998 through January 1999 where the Nasdaq saw strong gains also involves a degree of double-counting. As a result of these performances at either end of the extreme, it's hard to draw any trends from the prior occurrences except to say that they are typically followed by big moves in either direction. The only time the Nasdaq wasn't either 20% higher or lower one year later was in 1986.
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Christmas in July: NASDAQ’s Mid-Year Rally

In the mid-1980s the market began to evolve into a tech-driven market and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. Over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been up 27 of the past 35 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. This year the rally may have begun a day early, today and could last until on or around July 14.
After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last ten years, up nine times with a single mild 0.1% loss in 2015. Last year, NASDAQ advanced a solid 4.6% during the 12-day span.
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Tech Historically Leads Market Higher Until Q3 of Election Years

As of yesterday’s close DJIA was down 8.8% year-to-date. S&P 500 was down 3.5% and NASDAQ was up 12.1%. Compared to the typical election year, DJIA and S&P 500 are below historical average performance while NASDAQ is above average. However this year has not been a typical election year. Due to the covid-19, the market suffered the damage of the shortest bear market on record and a new bull market all before the first half of the year has come to an end.
In the surrounding Seasonal Patten Charts of DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, we compare 2020 (as of yesterday’s close) to All Years and Election Years. This year’s performance has been plotted on the right vertical axis in each chart. This year certainly has been unlike any other however some notable observations can be made. For DJIA and S&P 500, January, February and approximately half of March have historically been weak, on average, in election years. This year the bear market ended on March 23. Following those past weak starts, DJIA and S&P 500 historically enjoyed strength lasting into September before experiencing any significant pullback followed by a nice yearend rally. NASDAQ’s election year pattern differs somewhat with six fewer years of data, but it does hint to a possible late Q3 peak.
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 26th, 2020

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6.28.20

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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $MU
  • $GIS
  • $FDX
  • $CAG
  • $STZ
  • $CPRI
  • $XYF
  • $AYI
  • $MEI
  • $UNF
  • $CDMO
  • $SCHN
  • $LNN
  • $CULP
  • $XELA
  • $KFY
  • $RTIX
  • $JRSH
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 4 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.29.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Monday 6.29.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.30.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.30.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 7.1.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 7.1.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Thursday 7.2.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 7.2.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Friday 7.3.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Friday 7.3.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Micron Technology, Inc. $48.49

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, June 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share on revenue of $5.27 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.40 to $0.70 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 29.00% with revenue increasing by 10.07%. Short interest has increased by 7.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.9% below its 200 day moving average of $48.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 46,037 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.

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General Mills, Inc. $59.21

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share on revenue of $4.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.30% with revenue increasing by 17.50%. Short interest has decreased by 9.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.8% above its 200 day moving average of $54.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,573 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.

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FedEx Corp. $130.08

FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.42 per share on revenue of $16.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.65 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 71.66% with revenue decreasing by 8.41%. Short interest has increased by 10.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 43.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $140.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,768 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

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Conagra Brands, Inc. $32.64

Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $3.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 83.33% with revenue increasing by 23.99%. Short interest has decreased by 38.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.4% above its 200 day moving average of $30.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,239 contracts of the $29.00 put expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Constellation Brands, Inc. $168.99

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.91 per share on revenue of $1.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.57% with revenue decreasing by 13.69%. Short interest has increased by 20.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.2% below its 200 day moving average of $178.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 888 contracts of the $195.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters.

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Capri Holdings Limited $14.37

Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $1.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.68 to $0.73 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 49.21% with revenue decreasing by 12.20%. Short interest has increased by 35.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 56.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 44.0% below its 200 day moving average of $25.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 11,042 contracts of the $17.50 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

X Financial $0.92

X Financial (XYF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 55.00% with revenue increasing by 763.52%. Short interest has increased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.7% below its 200 day moving average of $1.47. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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Acuity Brands, Inc. $84.45

Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:40 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $809.25 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 51.90% with revenue decreasing by 14.60%. Short interest has increased by 48.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.4% below its 200 day moving average of $110.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

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Methode Electronics, Inc. $30.02

Methode Electronics, Inc. (MEI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $211.39 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.19% with revenue decreasing by 20.53%. Short interest has increased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.0% below its 200 day moving average of $32.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

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UniFirst Corporation $170.54

UniFirst Corporation (UNF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.17 per share on revenue of $378.28 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.44% with revenue decreasing by 16.63%. Short interest has decreased by 2.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% below its 200 day moving average of $186.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

They Are Not One

Just two cycles ago the ship had appeared seemingly out of nowhere. To a first approximation, that’s also where it was encountered — in the vast void of space beyond Fomalhaut’s debris disc. I can still relive it perfectly without Flashback.
Actually, I’m not retelling this right. My neural rhythms are still off balance from the shock. Let me start over.
Two cycles ago something suddenly caused the survey data for the Fomalhaut system to go all wrong. In general I have no idea what the Provians are trying to complain to me about. I’m just as much of a Unified Fleet supporter as the next captain, but it can be hard working with the Provians. Anyway, I’m sure every single Proxian who’s ever left Protia could’ve immediately figured out what was wrong — Fomalhaut had suddenly disappeared from view.
The Provian surveyors told me this happens all the time, just not like this. A nearby comet can obscure the view or a massive debris field in the inner system can partially obscure the star. But it’s not sudden — comets are easy to track and we’re far off axis with Fomalhaut’s debris field. No, Fomalhaut seemed to just disappear, although of course it hadn’t as we could still see its light reflected off the almost innumerable inner system objects.
Honestly, on a survey mission being captain is overwhelmingly people management. There’s always tension between the current survey team and the next one eager to get started. Maintenance team is constantly trying to temporarily decommission systems so they can be overhauled. Okay, yes I’m making excuses for myself. I know Unified Fleet command wouldn’t officially agree, but those who’ve actually been captains know that on a survey mission you just let the Prime Surveyor run operations. No debate I’m responsible, but I didn’t activate that laser beam array.
Oh, I’m getting ahead of myself again. Autodoc says my neural rhythms are now trending towards stable. Trending. Still far too unstable to reenter cryohibernation, but I’ve got to survive this to get the message back to Protia. If Protia is still there.
No, I didn’t mean it like that. Don’t be offended. I want to survive, certainly, but the reason I’m telling you is in case I don’t. I’ve always been so fond of you Projians with your incredibly stable neural rhythms. You’re following, right? I know you’re a botanist, of course you are — what else would a Projian be doing on this ship, but this all makes sense? Good, good.
Prime Surveyor swept the main laser beam array over the void where Fomalhaut should’ve been. A few of the beams bounced back to us. A few others were observed exciting small pockets of outer system gas near our ship. Most unremarkably disappeared into the void undetected. Prime Surveyor swept the auxiliary laser beam arrays while focusing the main array on the reflective spot. It took no imagination to realize the object was a perfectly reflective ovoid.
No, actually we only learned that later. They told us it was perfectly reflective.
Obviously artificial. The survey mission was over; first contact procedures initiated. In the void of space around an uninhabited system with no Gateway? This was a first. I wasn’t the best at command apprenticeship, but I know every detail of every first contact. What Proxian wouldn’t, we don’t forget anything unlike you Projians. I sincerely hope you remember everything I’m telling you. I’ll survive this, I will. But if I don’t, remember.
Four first contacts, seven secondary introductions. Eleven homeworlds, thirty two sapient species. Contact had always been near a homeworld or a Gateway. Except with the sapients of Tradgiu, who had intentionally placed themselves in orbit around our neighboring planet Morea which of course we could see easily observe from Protia. A very cautious sapient group. You already know all of this? Oh, you just don’t care. Fair enough. It’s helping me stabilize, or at least I’d like that to be true.
We transmitted in wide band to start. Followed protocol exactly: binary pulses, prime sequence, pulsar map, fractional sequence. Then our current location, Fomalhaut, relative to the pulsar map. Then wait. Form a numeric basis, then a location one, derive a common terminology for the universal constants and build from there. In apprenticeship learning about the process sounded boring, now I realize how mistaken that was. Regardless of how mundane the actions, it was thrilling to be part of such a moment.
Our wide band transmission was reflecting off of the ovoid. We were hopeful some amount was being absorbed. What would they reply with? I suppose it would’ve been reasonable to consider they wouldn’t reply, but I didn’t — that had never happened before.
Bvoort first contact, our first, went unexpectedly well when they followed up with basic arithmetic functions. You’ve met a Bvoort sapient I’m sure? No? Well they certainly don’t look anything like us, but they think similarly enough.
The Galant, that was beyond challenging as I understand. The Orcon’s first reply was the position of their homeworld relative to our pulsars. While our most recent contact, with the Tradgiu was by far the most cautious and conservative, they merely broadcast the prime sequence and continued it further than we had to demonstrate they understood.
The ovoid ship, it started to glow. Not in a way that any Protia sapient could perceive, but the sensors could. Uniform heat radiation apparently, perfectly uniform. Prime Surveyor theorized the ship had actually been in some sort of inert state and was now becoming active. It was a good theory and it might be correct; we’ll probably never know.
We received a wide band transmission that matched the exact frequency range we used. They did not transmit a prime sequence, arithmetic operations, nor stellar coordinates. No. What they sent destabilized every Provian on the ship. Us Proxians struggled through, most of us anyway. Yeah I know you’re fine, but well Projians are different. It wasn’t what they said, it was how they did.
The transmission was Protian Modern Script in Unified Fleet standard encoding.
Right I’m getting ahead of myself. What I actually saw was Prime Surveyor go motionless. Standard protocol in first contact is all transmissions are broadcast to the whole ship. Well intentioned I’m sure, but ultimately fatal in this case. Prime Surveyor recovered, temporarily, and set the incoming transmissions to auto relay within the ship.
Provians are brilliant. Standard evolutionary pressure between sapient groups. I’m sure you learned all about it. You always get differentiation; high intelligence comes with instability. Seems to be a universal constant. Just read up on the Tradgia, I’ve never learned of a more paranoid species. Yes, yes of course now is a terrible time to do that.
The message was short, fully comprehensible, but awkwardly structured. It was staggeringly impressive for a first contact reply.
“Salutations Protian vessel. Honor is ours to intersect you at Fomalhaut.”
Prime Surveyor was most qualified to reply, but had slumped to the ground. Every Provian in the operations cylinder was in some sort of incapacitated state. The profoundness of what this implied was just too overwhelming for them. Had they deduced our language and communication systems in a moment? Had they already visited Protia and then somehow arrived here before we would’ve received speed of light transmission from our homeworld informing us? I’m sure the Provian mind came up with so many other perplexing and disconcerting questions.
Us Proxians were a bit rattled, but were able to struggle on. You were reorganizing the garden and unaware this was happening? No offense, but that’s the most Projian thing I can imagine. I hope that detail makes it into a history document, assuming one ever gets written. No, no, sorry I’m sure it’ll work out okay.
Since every first contact has always been near a homeworld or Gateway, by the time numerical and stellar coordinate communication is established an expert team (entirely Provian of course) has been brought in to establish full linguistic communication. They don’t go over that part during command apprenticeship. No other Proxian in the operations cylinder knew either.
So I tried my best. I don’t think I succeeded; I don’t think success was ever an option.
They call themselves Terrans. Their sapient group is composed of humans and mechs, an artificial construct the humans had created. Also some combinations of the two; what they described sounded circular — we didn’t understand. I still don’t. Maybe the Provians would’ve, but they were so overwhelmed by this point.
We asked about the other sapients in their group, the natural ones. All gone, eliminated by the humans long before they had written language. Most of Provians in the operations cylinder died of neural hemorrhages. A few lived who were too overwhelmed by then to comprehend what had been learned.
Their homeworld was called Earth. Was. An accident. They destroyed it in a way I still don’t understand. Spatial folding, the same way ships move quickly between the stars. I’m not an expert in how Gateways work, but I was certain they can’t destroy planets. The other Proxians lost their minds. I don’t blame them. We’re a strong species, but one can only envision so much destruction before succumbing. Command apprenticeship toughens the mind. I struggled terribly. You were still in the garden? When did you even realize what was going on? Never mind.
I tried to understand, but they’ve never heard of Gateways. Apparently the way their ships move can’t be adequately described in Protian Modern Script.
We were told to leave the Fomalhaut system. They were expecting other Terran ships, but not their ships. It was hard to comprehend, you still don’t do you? Understandable, Protian barely has the words to describe this. You must understand though, it’s important.
The Terrans are a sapient group, but they are not one. No, not like the Projians, Proxians, and Provians make up of the Protian sapient group. These groups are of their choice. For example you and I chose to join the Unified Fleet. That makes us a group, a grouping of sapients who chose to be on ships. Yes, it’s like that somehow. It’s hard to understand. Yes, they’re still all Terrans and both groups have humans and mechs and also the confusing combination of them. Actually I’m assuming it’s just two groups, could it be more than two? This is all too much.
These two groups are disagreeing with each other. Extremely disagreeable. They said our language lacks the vocabulary to properly explain. It is a type of disagreement that can't be resolved and therefore results in destruction. The other ships will be coming to destroy them although they will try to destroy them first. I know it sounds wrong to say “destroy” — that’s what asteroids and volcanos do, not sapients to one another. Clearly Protian Modern doesn't have the words for what they’re expecting to happen.
I’m sure I was beyond insane at that point. I don’t know if anyone else was still alive in the operations cylinder, but certainly no one else was functional. My astronavigation skills are limited, but I was fully committed to do the unprecedented and flee a first contact, at the alien race's request no less.
I’m not normally curious, no Proxian is, but I suppose insane ones are. I asked the Terrans how they knew our language. They found a ship of ours recently, crashed on a planet in the Pollux system. I’d learned of that ship, it was the first non-Gateway exploratory ship every dispatched from Protia. It was a profound discovery for them, proof of other sapients. They are jubilant to have encountered our ship so soon after, they said they’ll come to Protia when they are done disagreeing. They did not ask where our homeworld is, they did not ask to visit.
They examined our crashed ship to see if the ship’s technology could help them in their disagreement with the other Terran group. They said it could not, it was extremely well built yet rudimentary. I suppose I should’ve been insulted, Unified Fleet ships are the most advanced in known space, yet I was too far gone to say anything.
They told us once more to leave. Then the space around their ship moved in an impossible way, bending the light of the distant stars behind them. Their ship disappeared only slightly less suddenly than it had appeared.
I charted a course back to Protia at full thrust. I still don’t know if we have enough fuel for such a route, I’ll figure it out later. I got myself into the full autodoc before I lost consciousness. That was two cycles ago. I didn’t expect to revive. I suppose I’m grateful I did yet I’m still not sane, I don’t know that I can ever be. We Proxians never forget.
They are like sapient volcanos. It’s only a matter of time until they flow through our home system, indifferently destroying all in their path. None of this makes sense? Yes, I know I’m insane, but that changes nothing. Please remember.
submitted by NothingIsArtificial to HFY [link] [comments]

Online Trading and International Stock Markets

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submitted by abelrichard to u/abelrichard [link] [comments]

This is a draft you idiots

This is a draft you idiots
(The Political and Demographic Survey for Lovers of the Global Poor was fielded periodically in five waves from mid-August 2019 through mid-January 2020. It was made possible with a generous grant from the Open Society Foundations, a philanthropic venture founded by George Soros.)
This unscientific survey and its modest samples are by no means a definitive account of this community's attitudes or demography, and I've identified at least a few methodological shortcomings. Two of them — namely, the limited answer selection for favorability questions and the wording of one option in the religious affiliation query — are described below.
More significantly, however, my decision to prioritize insights about the demographic makeup of this subreddit (wherein I limited each respondent to one wave to prevent duplicates) necessarily came at the expense of revelations about its political opinions. As a result, it is impossible to exclude the possibility that apparent trends between one wave and the next are not due at least in part to a response pool whose politics are systematically different from previous ones.
But with the above caveats laid out, I present to you — at long last — the topline findings and corresponding analyses from my personal contribution to the Neoliberal Project!
Key
💎 Joe Biden 💎 🥀 Bernie Sanders 🥀 👵🏼 Elizabeth Warren 👵🏼 👮🏾‍♀️ Kamala Harris 👮🏾‍♀️ 🏳️‍🌈 Pete Buttigieg 🏳️‍🌈 🍦 Michael Bloomberg 🍦 📒 Amy Klobuchar 📒 🧮 Andrew Yang 🧮 🛹 Beto O'Rourke 🛹 📖 Cory Booker 📖 💪 John Delaney 💪
🍊 Donald Trump 🤴 👩‍⚖️ Nancy Pelosi 👩‍⚖️ 🌹 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 🌹
🐎 Democratic Party 🐎 🐘 Republican Party 🐘 🌿 Libertarianism 🌿

Wave 1 (N=222 | August 11–13, 2019)

https://preview.redd.it/9e9bkuw54do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=3628e55ac8dd64a419517951eb5ad771ae96703e
🏳️‍🌈 (36.9%) earns a large plurality, with 🛹 (19.8%) taking second place. 💎 (10.8%) and 💪 (9.0%) follow up in third and fourth, while the fiercely progressive 👵🏼 (5.9%) earns a fair share as well. The remaining candidates combine for 15 percent of the first-preference vote, with no individual candidate reaching 4 points.
Favorability¹
Opinions of 🏳️‍🌈 (91.6) soar sky-high, with nearly 9 in 10 expressing a favorable view. In a not-so-close second is 👩‍⚖️ (84.2) for whom close to 8 in 10 have a positive opinion. 💎 (80.9) is the second-placed Democratic candidate, with nearly 3 in 4 offering a positive view, with nobody else even remotely close.
👵🏼 (46.1) finds herself slightly underwater, with a –7.7% net rating, and 👮🏾‍♀️ (43.2) is close behind. Of the five highest-polling candidates at the time of the survey, 🥀 (12.1) finds himself in an ignominious last, with just under a mere 1 in 10 giving a favorable view.
However, nobody on the left side of the aisle can come close to 🍊🤴 (1.4), who lands just a hair above being universally despised.
Subject Favorable Neither Unfavorable Index²
🏳️‍🌈 88.7 5.9 5.4 91.6
👩‍⚖️ 78.4 11.7 9.9 84.2
🐎 76.1 13.5 10.4 82.8
💎 73.0 15.8 11.3 80.9
👵 36.9 18.5 44.6 46.1
👮🏾‍♀️ 30.6 25.2 44.1 43.2
🌿 27.4 18.0 54.5 36.4
🌹 21.6 18.0 60.4 30.6
🥀 9.0 6.3 84.7 12.1
🐘 1.8 5.9 92.3 4.7
🍊🤴 0.5 1.8 97.7 1.4

Wave 2 (N=140 | October 11–15, 2019)

https://preview.redd.it/ckpx1vo94do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3e5d3ecac7f85c3d64cc5c20979027d0e4456e6
🏳️‍🌈 (38.6%) once again lands on top, more than tripling niche-favorite 💪's (12.1%) share, who is in a tight cluster for runner-up with 🛹 (11.4%) — who suffered a steep decline — 💎 (11.4%), and 👵🏼 (10.7%), who nearly doubled her vote. The rest take a little under 1/7th of the vote, with nobody breaking 4 percent.
Favorability
🏳️‍🌈 (92.8) hurdles the 9 in 10 threshold for favorability. 👩‍⚖️ (89.6) sees her already stellar standing improve substantially, while 💎 (83.1) trades places with his party.
👵🏼 (55.4) surges into positive territory, while 👮🏾‍♀️ (33.9) takes a big hit. 🥀 (14.9) is once again dead last.
Subject Favorable Neither Unfavorable Index²
🏳️‍🌈 90.7 4.3 5.0 92.8
👩‍⚖️ 85.0 9.3 5.7 89.6
💎 77.1 12.1 10.7 83.1
🐎 77.4 9.3 13.6 82.0
👵🏼 48.6 13.6 37.9 55.4
🌿 27.1 25.0 47.9 39.6
👮🏾‍♀️ 24.3 19.3 56.4 33.9
🌹 17.1 17.1 65.7 25.6
🥀 11.4 7.1 81.4 14.9
🐘 3.6 5.0 91.4 6.1
🍊🤴 0.7 2.9 96.4 2.1

Wave 3 (N=165 | November 11–14, 2019)

https://preview.redd.it/0bqavm8d4do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b4bec0be0a8849f120826f063de028bb2ab935a
Pulling a clear majority of the vote, 🏳️‍🌈 (54.5%) obliterates the field. 💎 (18.8%) substantially increases his share, while 👵🏼 (5.5%) has her percentage halved and 💪 (4.2%) cut by a brutal two-thirds. The remaining candidates take 14 percent, with no individual candidate surpassing the 4-point threshold.
Favorability
🏳️‍🌈 (93.9) inches still closer to the mathematical limit, as 👩‍⚖️ (84.2) recedes and 💎 (83.0) replicates his previous robust showing.
👵🏼 (38.5) nosedives, and 👮🏾‍♀️ (38.1) recoups some of her losses. 🥀 (12.1) returns to his abysmal rating in the first wave.
🍊🤴 (2.7) climbs further, doubling his Wave 1 standing in an impressive show of newfound popularity.
Subject Favorable Neither Unfavorable Index²
🏳️‍🌈 92.1 3.6 4.2 93.9
👩‍⚖️ 78.2 12.1 9.7 84.2
💎 76.4 13.3 10.3 83.0
🐎 72.7 12.7 14.5 79.0
👵🏼 28.5 20.0 51.5 38.5
👮🏾‍♀️ 24.2 27.9 47.9 38.1
🌿 28.5 15.2 56.4 36.1
🌹 12.7 17.6 69.7 21.5
🥀 9.1 6.1 84.8 12.1
🐘 1.8 5.5 92.7 4.5
🍊🤴 2.4 0.6 97.0 2.7

Wave 4 (N=150 | December 23–26, 2019)

https://preview.redd.it/7ozcxrue4do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=1546d0102b91dab50da987d272bfe96873ecb243
🏳️‍🌈 (54.0%) repeats his dominating performance, while 💎 (22.0%) earns twice his initial share. A meaningful minority contingent selects the otherwise broadly reviled 🥀 (4.7%), and late-entrant 🍦 (4.7%) matches. 🧮 (4.0%) earns his mention with a number of votes, 👵🏼 (2.7%) loses another half off her support, and 💪 (1.3%) fades into the background.
Favorability
🏳️‍🌈 (91.3) loses a bit of his still-vibrant luster, and 👩‍⚖️ (91.3) draws right even with him as her skeptics are slashed by no less than half. 💎 (87.6) significantly improves his already excellent numbers.
The now-departed 👮🏾‍♀️ (48.3) surges to near-even favorability, while 👵🏼 (34.0) is further depressed. 🥀 (17.3) rises somewhat from the abyss.
Subject Favorable Neither Unfavorable Index²
🏳️‍🌈 90.0 2.7 7.3 91.3
👩‍⚖️ 88.0 6.7 5.3 91.3
💎 84.0 7.3 8.7 87.6
🐎 73.3 18.0 8.7 79.0
👮🏾‍♀️ 36.0 24.7 49.3 48.3
🌿 29.3 21.3 49.3 36.1
👵🏼 26.0 16.0 58.0 34.0
🌹 13.3 18.7 68.0 22.6
🥀 12.7 9.3 78.0 17.3
🐘 1.3 9.3 89.3 5.9
🍊🤴 0.7 2.7 96.7 2.0

Wave 5 (N=187 | January 12–14, 2020)

https://preview.redd.it/va1ly13i4do41.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5d6a87273fa6eafc4f19409f2762020942f3aeb
🏳️‍🌈 (45.5%) loses his outright majority as 💎 (28.9%) significantly increases his vote share for the fourth consecutive wave. 📒 (4.8%) rises to the top of the second tier, with 📖 (4.3%) just behind.
Favorability
💎's (91.2) unrelenting rise is mirrored in favorability as he dethrones 🏳️‍🌈 (90.3) for the first place in the metric.
👮🏾‍♀️ (55.8) rides cleanly into positive territory, and 👵🏼 (45.7) sees her image improve substantially, perhaps aided by an ongoing feud with 🥀 (13.8), who falls from his personal high.
🍊🤴 (1.0), for his part, kisses the floor.
Subject Favorable Neither Unfavorable Index²
💎 87.7 7.0 5.3 91.2
🏳️‍🌈 86.6 7.5 5.9 90.3
👩‍⚖️ 84.5 10.2 5.3 89.6
🐎 74.3 15.0 10.7 81.8
👮🏾‍♀️ 42.2 27.3 30.5 55.8
👵🏼 34.2 23.0 42.8 45.7
🌿 26.2 25.1 48.7 38.7
🌹 11.8 20.3 67.9 21.9
🥀 11.2 5.3 83.4 13.8
🐘 3.2 8.6 88.2 7.5
🍊🤴 0.5 1.1 98.4 1.0

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

https://preview.redd.it/mve7hnyfodo41.png?width=427&format=png&auto=webp&s=6dc3f26f3106411133c5e830746f1e9aab1fc7be
The overwhelming majority — 8 in 10 — of neoliberal are willing to hold their noses and vote for 🥀 were he the nominee, but the percentage shrunk by just over 1 percent in every successive wave but one, while the number of defectors reached a high of 8 percent in the fourth before receding somewhat. This is perhaps due to the increasingly bitter nature of the primary.
Candidate Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5
🥀 82.0 80.7 80.6 79.3 78.1
Neither 15.8 12.9 13.3 12.7 16.6
🍊🤴 2.3 6.4 6.1 8.0 5.3

Policies

https://preview.redd.it/phl3ug4fpdo41.png?width=427&format=png&auto=webp&s=798f47119e768445322d48217d5d97e6c3901cce
A similarly overwhelming 82 percent majority across all five waves oppose allowing businesses to deny service to LGBT+ customers on the basis of their orientation, while just 1 in 8 expressed support.
Policy Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Total
Yes 12.2 9.3 14.5 15.3 10.2 12.3
Neither 3.6 5.7 8.5 4.0 7.2 5.7
No 84.2 85.0 77.0 80.3 82.9 82.1

https://preview.redd.it/bbg0cm14qdo41.png?width=427&format=png&auto=webp&s=0cbfede1b1f25601d9b018e6e28a178163bb7aeb
By a 7215 margin, neoliberals support changing the individual income tax schedule in the United States to add 40 and 45 percent brackets for respective annual incomes over $1,000,000 and $2,500,000. (The difference between the waves with highest and lowest margins in favor are statistically significant, although the reason behind this is unclear.)
Policy Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Total
Yes 71.2 73.6 69.7 68.7 75.9 71.9
Neither 14.9 12.9 9.7 14.0 12.8 13.0
No 14.0 13.6 20.6 17.3 11.2 15.2

https://preview.redd.it/rm2xubohsdo41.png?width=427&format=png&auto=webp&s=a245ffa57b65799c1795ad6dd6b7990d15331b56
An incredible 3 in 4 respondents offer support for the politically suicidal stance of no government restrictions on abortion rights, with just 1 in 6 opposed — yet more evidence that neoliberal's moderation applies only to economics and not social and cultural issues, where its orientation is solidly leftist.
Policy Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Total
All cases 77.9 74.3 72.1 72.7 74.3 74.5
Neither 6.3 10.7 8.5 9.3 11.2 9.0
Less often 15.8 15.0 19.4 18.0 14.4 16.4

https://preview.redd.it/6x2px4s32eo41.png?width=427&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fcb1f2d67381d38e0e00af17813b9871c98ac64
On the flipside, significantly raising tax rates on higher corporate income brackets while cutting them for lower ones receives a cool reception: just under 1 in 3 expressed support for the proposed change. Many (1 in 5) were unsure, however, and the percentage of opponents falls short of majority level.
Notably, following an initial dip, approval of the proposition increased significantly from Wave 2 to Wave 5. Again, it is not clear what was behind this shift.
Policy Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5
Yes 28.4 27.1 30.9 30.9 39.3
Neither 21.6 19.3 20.0 20.0 18.0
No 50.0 53.6 48.1 49.1 44.7

https://preview.redd.it/95m4unun2eo41.png?width=427&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba172cb732ef8cd4c474e2d3b96eba8c501db50f
A narrow 2-point plurality favored outlawing semiautomatic rifles and magazines carrying over 10 rounds over the entire survey period, but this masks the sharp drop in support from the first wave to the second.
There is an explanation that likely accounts for this precipitous change: 🛹's politically risky proposal for a mandatory buyback of AR–15s, as well as perhaps prior preference for sub-favorite 🏳️‍🌈, who was its most vocal opponent.
Policy Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5
Yes 51.4 43.6 40.6 41.3 43.3
Neither 13.1 10.7 12.1 13.3 14.4
No 35.6 45.7 47.3 45.3 44.2

https://preview.redd.it/4bp3y2hs3eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=d82df066af647380fe3d3b55809e201cfaa9acfc
No policy proposal saw a greater consensus than the introduction of a public option for Medicare, with an impressive 7 in 8 in support. The unequivocal figure is emblematic of the observation that the disagreement between the center-left and the hard-left is typically over the means — not the end.
Policy Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5
Yes 86.5 85.7 87.3 86.0 89.8
Neither 6.3 6.4 6.1 4.7 3.7
No 7.2 7.9 6.7 9.3 6.4

Demography

https://preview.redd.it/wd03n92q4eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=365a52b4516f591c2a1340bd68bc3e932d957627
neoliberal is a downright fraternity, with over 9 in 10 respondents identifying themselves as male and just 6 percent as female. The remaining 1 in 40 or so identified beyond the gender binary.
(I did not try to break out transgender males and females specifically, fearing that the small figures might convey more noise than signal.)

https://preview.redd.it/gqpsmokr4eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=640a30c8db352ca992ce08e95205752b7b49ca6f
An alternate tagline for this community could be "Zoomer Nation," as a 3 in 5 majority are too young to be included in the Census Bureau's calculation of the percentage of Americans with a college degree. The pattern in the remainder of the sample was scarcely any less stark: 1 in 3 were between the ages of 25 and 34. A vanishing 1 percent — 9 respondents — were 45 or older.

https://preview.redd.it/da6qct947eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc80a11a299662cc5f8737de9879ba10bf5641d8
Limited to the 40 percent of respondents aged at least 25, this subsample offers yet another indication of how vastly different the userbase of neoliberal is from the general population. With nearly 6 in 7 seniors harboring a bachelor's degree — and 3 in 8 having at taken courses further beyond — the community comprises an elite stock. (As of 2018, 35 percent of Americans in the same age range have graduated college.)

https://preview.redd.it/ja1o5tiu4eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d5fa218d660066b20644aa2112cc7b4cffaff88
Somewhat over 3 in 4 of the sample identified their ethnic background as white — likely a few Taylor Swifts short of what the community has seemed to envision as a battle against a polar bear in a snowstorm at the 90° parallel.
Considering the proportion of respondents from the United States ⬇️, Asian neoliberals (8.4%) were overrepresented and users of mixed ancestry (7.0%) even more so, while Hispanic (4.5%) and Black (3.2%) members fell far short of their representation in the general population.

https://preview.redd.it/8gndqetw4eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a562687baaec05f41651d115a6f8c5b11f1400f
neoliberal is a highly secular community, with 2 in 3 stating their irreligiosity, while about 23 percent identified as Christians and 10 percent professed their affiliation with another religion.
(It's worth pointing out that these numbers are meaningfully out of line with a survey conducted of this subreddit two years ago, wherein a full 80 percent selected one of the religiously unaffiliated options and just 5 percent reported identification with another religion. It is possible that the use of "Unaffiliated" instead of "No religion" as the third selection confused certain respondents.)

https://preview.redd.it/w7ix2c635eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcae5fdbdb89918b7227bcbceb7682064d156ca2
Perhaps a sign of the generational times, right between 1/5 and 1/4 of respondents identified as a sexual minority. This is far higher than surveys of the public report for the youngest generation, however, so other major factors are certainly at play.

https://preview.redd.it/24xvb2f77eo41.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1f462e3c691e9ff727b027f3b4d0ff62babd02d
In an attempt to limit the sample to those for which the questionnaire would be most relevant, I discouraged non-Americans from taking the survey, so these figures are not intended to be representative. (A follow-up poll strongly suggests that few heeded the request.)
However, I have included it to contextualize the rest of the data.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
All Graphical Representations
Detailed Responses by Individual (useful for those who would like to do analyses of their own)
——————
¹ I discovered in a poll following up my wave survey that the lack of options for different intensities of positive/negative opinion omitted critical nuance in the data. Relatively speaking, 🏳️‍🌈 suffered most because of this, while 💎 benefitted a fair bit.
² Favorable = 100 | Neither = 50 | Unfavorable = 0
submitted by IncoherentEntity to u/IncoherentEntity [link] [comments]

me_irlgbt survey results! really long post! this took me 6 days! exclamation mark!

Long post. REALLY long post. buckle in.

TLDR at the end

First off, thanks to everybody who responded! There were 467 responses in total, which is amazing. I know filling out surveys online can be boring, so I really appreciate you all indulging me for this.
A few notes before we get started!
Now. Let's get started with the results.

Total survey responses: 467

DEMOGRAPHICS SECTION

AGE: 460 responses

https://imgur.com/thGOvqi
As we can see here, the majority of respondents are between the ages of 13-24, with most being 18-24. No surprise, this pretty much tracks with the general demographics of reddit. We have 3 tiny kiddos who responded, bless them. One person over 60, heyhowareyougorge. It’s interesting to cross-reference the age demographics with the type of posts we see here. I’m in my early 20s, which in gay years is like being in your early 40s, and i’ve been out for years. I see a lot of closet or coming out type posts, which I personally don’t relate to as much any more, but that totally tracks with the amount of youngins we have here. If you’re looking to karma whore, here’s the data you need.

COUNTRY: 457 responses

https://imgur.com/xwAb3g8
So, clearly very US-heavy. Again, not a surprise here for a US-based website. I would like to confess to purposefully splitting up the UK demographics out of sheer curiosity too; I’m Scottish and wanted to know how many fellow Scots I had. Happenin troops.
I also wanted to use this to see how many people were from countries with less legal protections for being LGBT. The countries in here I’d particularly like to highlight are:
Dominica, where it is illegal to be gay. Penalties include a 10 year prison sentence, or “incarceration in a psychiatric institution.” Absolutely no legal protections for any LGBT people. That’s pretty fucked.
India has no legally recognised same sex unions, no same sex marriage, no adoption, but all of these things have been proposed. some anti-discrimination laws. They have a third gender option, called hijra. Trans people do have some legal recognition of gender, which is nice. As far as I’m aware, this situation is pretty unique to India.
Qatar, where same-sex sexual activity is punished by fines, imprisonment, or the death penalty. Obviously no legal protections.
Russia, where same-sex sexual activity is technically legal, but in Chechnya, it is heavily punished. Gay people are abducted and sent to concentration camps in this region. Russia has done little to prevent this.
Singapore, where there is technically punishment of up to 2 years in prison for male same-sex sexual activity, but this is apparently not enforced any more. F/F is legal though.
Malaysia, where it remains illegal to be gay. Punishments can be up to 20 years in prison, fines, or whippings, just for engaging in same-sex sexual activity. However, a 2016 court ruling did recognise gender changes as a fundamental constitutional right, according to wikipedia.
I’d like us to take a moment to remember, especially if you’re from the US, that the fight for LGBT rights is far from over. It’s not some distant thing. Even people on this good gay subreddit could face severe punishments for their identity. If you are in a country with legal protections, take a moment to be thankful. If you can, please educate yourself on the state of LGBT rights in these countries, and see if you can do anything to help.

ETHNICITY: 463 responses

https://imgur.com/hk6KINj
Again, not particularly surprising results here. Reddit is a pretty overwhelmingly white website. I’m a full blown white person so I’m not sure how much I can really say here without verging out of my own lane. I do think we should keep this in mind however, because as a largely white subreddit we may not have so many people calling out racism when they see it. I don’t want POC to feel ignored here just because they make up a smaller percentage of our demographics, so I welcome any POC responses here as to how we’re doing with that. I personally haven’t seen too much racism, as the bigotry we tend to get is centred around our lgbt identities. Whenever I see it it tends to be anti-black, and usually confined to usernames. I do try to ban that whenever I see it, but I’m only one person, so I do rely on you to report things to me!

GENDER: 467 responses

https://imgur.com/GOMLltE
https://imgur.com/BY9eRfU
Now, this is the one I’ve had to go in and fuck with. This, and all the other charts, are basically just the raw data in visual form. The chart above is each individual response, allowing for those who selected multiple options. So, rather than counting every time someone selected “male”, then “nonbinary”, etc, it’s counting every time a person selected “male + cisgender,” “nonbinary + queer”, if that makes sense.
This chart here is the one I’ve fucked with, that just has the amount of times an option was selected.
https://imgur.com/ejdAKm9
I basically simplified the data here. Whenever someone said something like unsure, unknown, etc, this was put under “questioning”. The “other” responses are the only ones that received significant editing. These were long-form responses that could not be parsed into simple answers, so here they are in their entirety.
Now, I could probably have parsed them into other categories, but honestly I thought this was more entertaining.
Some important things to remember when reading this data! * I collected it pretty poorly. I wasn’t aware of how google would collate it and i done goofed a bit. Take it with a pinch of salt. * once i “simplified” the data to look at how many times each option was selected, I ended up with almost 800 pieces of data. You’ll recall that only 467 people responded to the survey, so there is significant overlap. This is why I'm showing you two versions. The crossover is not fully clear, and there’s probably ways I could process this data better, but i’m gonna be real with y'all it’s a lot to wade through and I'm honestly just bad at this * This question allowed people to choose as many or as few labels as they wanted. Some people listed their gender as just “transgender” with no other qualifiers, for example. Therefore this data should be treated as only a partial picture of the gender demographics of this subreddit

PRONOUNS: 464 responses

https://imgur.com/lsP8661
Again, I arguably messed up on the collection of results here, BUT, I do think it’s very interesting to see the combinations of pronouns people use. For example, I think it’s cool to see that, among those who use they/them pronouns
Now obviously it’s gonna be difficult to argue for these results to be generalised to the population at large, but this does support what I’ve seen anecdotally for a while; neutral pronouns are often used alongside non-neutral pronouns. We might not have seen this if I had been a better researcher.
Here is the version with my own editing, simplification, and parsing of “other” results:
https://imgur.com/6sR4w3U
Other results are as follows, presented without comment
Among neopronoun usage, we have specific examples of: * ve/ver * it/its
If we put this alongside the “other” responses that indicate neopronoun usage, we can say that 5 of our respondents use, or are comfortable using, neopronouns.
I think this is an interesting point to highlight, because common transphobe rhetoric is that people are using a “confusing” variety of pronouns. We have a generally trans-friendly sub (at least I hope so), and out of 464 respondents to this question, only 5 people indicated neopronoun usage. Could it be that this line of thinking, that people are using confusing newfangled pronouns, is just an uninformed scream from the ignorant?

SEXUALITY: 467 responses

https://imgur.com/CXVxEKc
Again, raw data. For this one I don’t feel it’s super necessary to go in and parse out who picked multiple things, because the data here seems kinda straightforward, if you’ll pardon the pun.
We have a lot of bi and pan people here. Again, it’s difficult to argue for the generalisation of these results, but this does support evidence of bisexual people making up the majority of the LGBT community. If we compare this to the by now well known findings from the Kinsey institute, this does support the belief that most people are likely neither a Kinsey 1 or a Kinsey 6, but somewhere in the middle. It’s not directly comparable because I didn’t use the same metrics, but it’s interesting to think about.
I also think it’s interesting to see so many straight respondents. Of course, this could just be trans people who are straight, but I know from the comments I’ve received that some people who responded are totally non-LGBT, just allies.
Also, shoutouts to “an absolute mess” and “just desperate for love”. Same, babes.

EDUCATION: 461 responses

There were enough “other” responses that I felt like I needed to go in and take those out, so here’s the raw data before I did that.
https://imgur.com/eguYGeK
And here is the simplified version
https://imgur.com/DZClNVV
Here are the “Other” responses
My favourite response is “IDK not american”. As we all know, education only exists in America.
Anyway, this pretty much tracks along the age demographics. With a population mostly aged between 13-24, it makes sense that the majority are high school or college educated.
Of course, it should be kept in mind that not everybody’s education is a linear or traditional experience, and won’t completely track with our age demographics.
Shoutouts to the 3-4 people with PhDs tho, mad respect.
And that wraps up our demographics section! Onto some of the cool shit.

PERSONAL LIFE SECTION

POLITICAL ALIGNMENT: 477/467

https://imgur.com/TUQNBVJ
Here’s the raw data. As you can see, there’s a lot of write-in responses. If you’ve spent any time hanging out on this subreddit, I don’t think it’s any shock to see how overwhelmingly left-leaning we are. I think this sort of goes with the territory of being an LGBT subreddit though, we do tend to develop liberal politics as an attempt to avoid homophobia and transphobia, and then from there it’s easy to fall into leftist politics, especially on places like Reddit.
Simplified data: https://imgur.com/isja5Kc
Other responses:
  • Don’t have these words in AUS
  • I have a hard time understanding all the different words, but I know I’m the opposite of Donald Trump
  • LibCenter
  • anarcho-communist
  • social libertarian
  • Hard to say since these terms mean slightly different things in different places/political climates
  • Whoever isn't a racist bigot
  • slutty sjw whos ready to bust a fat nut and shoot capitalists
  • angry *Governmental axis: libertarian. Economic axis: centrist. Social axis: progressive
  • I don't have a strict political alignment, I just think that every politician can have good ideas whatever their alignment is
  • I vote based on the current goals of each party
  • regulated markets, welfare capitalism, taco trucks on every corner. thank you for coming to my ted talk.
  • Whatever is Civil Rights
  • leftish antiauthoritarian
  • no one changes anything but rich mens pocket books
  • Progressive
  • Green
  • Prefer not to say
  • Independent
We’re clearly a very left-leaning subreddit here. I think it’s interesting that out of a total of 447 responses, only 9 disclosed that they were on the right-hand side of the political spectrum. Is this because only 4% of people round these parts are on the right, or is due to an unwillingness to identify with conservative politics, even on an anonymous survey? Difficult to know for sure. Interesting data tho amirite.
Also whoever answered “slutty sjw whos ready to bust a fat nut”, same girl

RELIGION 460/467

Raw data: https://imgur.com/oQQWZH9
Again, a fuckfest here, but even before we go in and parse things out we can see that 336/460 indicate atheist or agnostic beliefs. This sort of goes along with my hypothesis/unscientific belief that a majority of LGBT people are non-religious, or will find religion themselves later on. I personally would love to do research on the prevalence of found religion in later life, especially pagan/wiccan type beliefs, in LGBT people. I think a lot of us do really desire that sort of connection to spirituality, but can’t always get it from the religions we were raised in. This is from my perspective as a western white person raised around christian/catholic beliefs; I know there’s differences with, for example, Judaism, where it’s fully baked into the culture to question and argue with your own beliefs, so I know there’s a hell of a lot of cultural bias going into this assumption.
Simplified data
https://imgur.com/FimSsoh
I’ve kept Atheist/agnostic as separate categories, grouped the different Satanism responses, and again created an “other” category.
Other responses:
  • Both Christian and agnostic
  • Dragons
  • exmormon
  • I don't believe in a conscious force making decisions, but there is some sort of force underlying the physical world
  • idk man. dudeism?
  • Its a mix
  • Meh
  • None (not explicitly atheist or agnostic, just...ehhhhh)
  • Unitarian Universalist
  • Science Christian
Given that this is Reddit, I’m not surprised by the high amount of atheist/agnostic responses, given that the site still has a strong legacy left behind by the glory days of /atheist. With this bias in mind, I do still think this presents a compelling basis for further research on the religious affiliations of LGBT people.

RELATIONSHIP STATUS 465/467

https://imgur.com/vcrZae3
This one actually didn’t require much fucking with, so I’ve just presented the gently simplified data.
Other responses
  • In a queer-platonic relationship
  • I walk a lonley road, the only one that i have ever known.
  • I’m not really sure rn
  • It’s complicated
  • In a polyamorous relationship
  • I have a domme
  • Polyamorous
  • On a crash course to divorce :(
Wow we’re a single lot aren’t we
Honestly I think this correlates with the age demographics. If I were a better data analyst I’d go in and confirm this with the data, but I’m not, so I won’t. Knowing that we have a lot of younger people, who are more likely to have either no relationship or a frequently changing/unstable relationship status, this kinda seems about right. It would be interesting though to compare this with relationship data from other LGBT communities. I think we all know the struggles of finding available partners, especially when you are, as the data suggests, in high school or college. It’d be interesting to see if the high rate of single people here is due to a desire to seek out other LGBT people in order to gain a sense of community as well. Maybe LGBT people in a relationship feel they already have enough of a sense of community and belonging and are therefore less likely to seek out LGBT spaces online. That’ll require some good qualitative data tho which is time consuming. Could be really cool tho.

THOUGHTS ON TERFS 463/467

Raw data: https://imgur.com/CQ2hSu4
This was a big question. There’s a lot of write-in responses here, so I’ll go through those.
Simplified data
https://imgur.com/YwNUYsR
Other results, presented without comment
  • accept everyone or get the fuck out
  • Confused
  • Fuck TERFs
  • Fuck TERFs
  • Fuck TERFs
  • Fuck TERFs
  • Fuck TERFs seriously
  • Fuck them with the rustiest rake you can find
  • Hate them
  • [Dislike] However, I do not condone jokes of violence against Terfs
  • I don't even know what that is.
  • I don't know or care what that means
  • I hate them so god damned much even the mention of the word terf makes me wanna punch a *wall then vomit.
  • I have never heard of this
  • I have no idea who they are
  • Idk bout them
  • liquidate them
  • Never heard of them
  • Not sure exactly what that means but if I understand it right I dislike them because I support transgender people
  • punch them
  • strongly dislike is not enough
  • [just a transphobic pro-terf comment]
  • strongly dislike isn't strong enough.
  • TERF is a slur lol
  • terfs r trash
  • They can go to hell
  • They have no place
  • Too little experience with them to form a meaningful opinion
  • we should set them on fire
  • trans rights babey
I think this is a pretty conclusive result. Of the 29 “other” responses, 20 of them indicate Dislike to Strongly Dislike. 5 respondents said Strongly Like, and 1 said Like. These respondents were the only ones who also put in positive “other” responses. 82% of responses were Strongly Dislike.
This is honestly going to inform my moderation style. I always remove outwardly transphobic comments, especially if they mirror the “rational people” comment in the responses above. However, seeing such a strong dislike of TERFs will likely mean I’ll remove more comments that are gently TERFy but not as explicit.
I do want to reiterate, this is a feminist space. I personally am a strong feminist. I hold some more radical feminist views. I also believe trans women are women, they have a place in the feminist movement, and in women’s spaces. You can absolutely be a trans INCLUSIVE radical feminist. Feminism is almost useless without intersectionality. Trans people are valid and welcomed here. Transphobia will never be tolerated here. Not up for debate.

THOUGHTS ON TRANSMEDICALISTS 460/467

Raw data:
https://imgur.com/rWZFUBp
Again, lots of write in responses. Same script as last time
Simplified data:
https://imgur.com/sQro5dq
Other results
  • At first glance, this notion makes sense to me, but I know to little about the issue to form a meaningful opinion
  • Dissagree w/ but not dislike as people
  • Don't know whether they're right or wrong since I'm not trans therefore can't confirm shit
  • Fuck truscum
  • Fuck truscum.
  • I can understand where they're coming from, but i think it's a harmful ideology all the same
  • I don't agree transition is necessary, since sometimes staying in the closet is the only way to survive. But dysphoria of some kind is necessary.
  • I don't understand how people can be trans if they've never experienced Dysphoria. Not being a dick, i just can't find an explaination.
  • I get where they're coming from
  • I have no opinion. If somebody says they're trans, all i want are their preferred pronouns.
  • I haven't heard about this before, I'd have to read up on it before giving an opinion!
  • I just need to shout about the exclusionary nature of the stance
  • I think dysphoria is necessary, but not medically transitioning
  • I’d err on the side of caution because it sounds like it could be ehhh. I don’t know enough about *the trans part of the LGBT+ community to properly answer this one
  • I’m not sure about them yet
  • It isnt nessacsry but many people do experience it
  • N/A
  • Neutral as long as they aren’t excessively pushy or rude about it.
  • New to this concept tbh
  • No opinion
  • Non-binary trans is still trans.
  • Not enough reading or research done on my part to have an informed opinion
  • Not familiar with this topic enough to say
  • punch them too
  • Therapists should treat it
  • There is background to their points but their attitude stunts progress for all trans people
  • they're very flammable too
  • trans people are trans regardless of what gender affirmations, if any, they choose to undergo. ❤️
  • trans rights babey
  • uncle terfs, more or less.
  • Unknown
  • wanting to be a different gender = gender dysphoria, so 90% of the time transmedicalism is just *pointless gatekeeping
This is the one I definitely needed trans people’s opinions on. I am cis-ish (androgynous butchy lesbian who occasionally likes a cheeky they/them pronoun but is for all intents and purposes a woman/dyke) and so feel entirely unqualified to weigh in and decide which side of the issue is “correct”.
  • 56.2% of responses indicate either Dislike or Strongly Dislike transmedicalists
  • Of the “other” responses, 15/29 indicate a dislike or disagreement with transmedicalist ideology
  • There is a large amount of “neutral” or “no opinion” responses. I can assume a lot of these are from cis people who, like me, feel unqualified to weigh in.
This is also likely to inform my moderation style somewhat. Again, I always remove blatant transphobia when I see it, and this includes anybody stating that nonbinary people are not valid, not real, etc. From these results, I’m going to assume this is the right move, and continue with this strategy.
I personally lean towards not believing in transmedicalism. Some of this may very well stem from my feminist views, but I generally think gender is extremely fluid, and that labels are only worth what the individual believes they represent. If any of you have an understanding of sociology, I tend towards a Weberian/symbolic interactionist approach towards labels in general. Therefore I believe whatever a person identifies as is probably the right identity for them, regardless of what I may think of it. This isn’t necessarily relevant to your understanding of the survey, but it may be relevant to your understanding of my moderation actions.
That wraps up this section! This was a long one, thanks for sticking with us <3

ME_IRLGBT OPINIONS

THOUGHTS ON THE SUBREDDIT 457/467

https://imgur.com/VUwfXtq
Finally, some data i don’t need to fuck around with. Note to self, do more ratings like this.
Obviously as a mod I’m happy to see that opinions trend above 5 here. The average score we’re getting here is 7.87 (2dp) and honestly, I’m down. If that was a movie on IMDB, that shit would be a pretty well-received movie. The most frequent response here is 8/10, and most responses are between 7-10, which tells me people generally enjoy hanging out here. I know there’s always a strong chance for bias here, because the people who are likely to respond to a kinda long survey for a subreddit are likely to be people who either really enjoy it, or really don’t. However, even with that bias, I’m gonna just take the W if that’s cool with you.

THOUGHTS ON MODERATION 445/467

https://imgur.com/pmkKyuC
Slightly lower trend than overall subreddit opinions, but the average is almost the same at 7.73 (2dp).
Since sending out this survey I have made some slight tweaks to my moderation style, as well as making some additions to the automoderator. We’ll chat about that later. I’m glad the overall trend here is positive though; I don’t want this to be a place where you all just end up resenting me.

DO WE NEED MORE MODS? 428/467

https://imgur.com/gwZuKtM
Other responses:
  • 🤷
  • don’t care
  • I don't know. I'm new to Reddit
  • i dont have a reddit account, and i very rarely check comments. I dont think i'm the best person to answer this.
  • I dont pay attention enough to say
  • I just discovered this subreddit like yesterday so I don't really know
  • I think we need mods who do more than just let people police the sub themselves. We may only need a new mod if the current mods don’t change how they mod. Respond to reports is what I’m saying (I don’t see almost any removed comments ever)
  • Idk
  • idk i just enjoy the memes
  • idk im just lurking here
  • Idk. How many moderators do you have?
  • if they're good moderators
  • maybe? i think a little more mod participation would be cool. just seeing admins in comments laughing and joking along with us, and sharing in the memes. i enjoy the hands-off approach but that doesn't mean i don't ever wanna see more mods chilling out and sorta like.,..... making their presence known and joining in on the fun!!! yknow it makes it feel safer
  • no idea tbh but it seems to be running ok
So the general answer here is that we maybe need more mods. Far more people said no than said yes.
Personal interpretation is that people may have felt more comfortable answering “maybe” than answering “yes”. I know that having one active mod for a 90k subreddit is not usual, and by now most subreddits will have gotten a couple more people in. I won’t speak for parlayv but, if you think i’m hands-off, she’s like, not even got hands. Hands not on this plane. We did create the subreddit together (IIRC I came up with the name and she was like “omg that needs to be a subreddit” and then, all of a sudden, it was) but I’m the one who pretty much runs it. I don’t think she’d take issue with me saying that. She’s too busy playing runescape and smoking weed anyway lmao
So, given the general results, I will look at bringing more mods on. I’ll probably pull from people I know first, and if that doesn’t work, may open up applications later. If this happens you’ll all know about it.
I’ll address some of the comments at the very end. Your concerns are not going unnoticed!

THOUGHTS ON RESEARCHERS 459/467

https://imgur.com/Px4XqGQ
Another very similar score, but this time the most frequent response by far is a 10. Average score is 7.84
This one was kinda important for me. I made the decision to allow researchers to post their surveys here. Full disclosure, when researchers come to me in modmail, my key concern is that they’ve followed all ethical procedures. So far, every single one has been done through a university in an official capacity, which means they have to prove they’ve gone through the ethics of their work and it’s been approved before they can even start researching. Whenever I’ve checked them out they seem completely fine, and I’ve so far not received any complaints, which makes me feel good.
I personally believe research is incredibly important for us to understand ourselves, as well as other people. I’m obviously biased as hell here because I’m a social sciences student but the whole reason I’m interested in this field is the benefits I believe it can bring to us. So if it’s cool with you all, I’m going to take this result as support for research posts. For now I don’t foresee any issues with frequency but we’ll revisit this if that becomes a problem. I’d like to give you all a sincere thank you for your positive reception to these posts <3

SHOULD WE BAN TERFS OR TRANSMEDICALISTS? 461/467

This question specified “regardless of rulebreaking”, meaning should they be banned on sight if they say they identify as either a TERF or a transmedicalist. I also meant if they posted in TERF or transmedicalist subreddits, but I didn’t specify this, so I won’t use that in my analysis of this data.
https://imgur.com/o1fevKC
Other responses
  • Allow them only if they don't say anything transphobic on me_irlgbt
  • ban 'em when they post inflammatory stuff to bait responses
  • allow transmeds to flair their posts/create separate sub
  • only ban Transmedicalists if they’re being dicks about it
  • don't know enough about transmedicalists to say
  • Ban transmedicalists, do not ban TERFs
  • Definitely ban TERFs, I just don't really know much about trans medicalists, so I feel weird making a definitive statement about them.
  • Definitely ban TERFs. I’m neutral on transmedicalists
  • Forum should not be allowed to become a hostile environment. They can easily do that.
  • I don't know the context behind transmedicalists but if they're anything like terfs then yes ban them
  • I think a distinction must be made between hate and ignorance. Obvious hate should naturally be answered with a ban, but rule-breaking content arising from possible ignorance should be met with a removal, private warning and, most importantly, directing the poster toward resources to educate themselves.
  • I think there is more ground to talk with transmedicalists but that I would prefer not to deal with them. TERFs should be banned regardless of circumstance.
  • I’m not sure how i feel about just “banning” people but i disagree with them both
  • if being mean
  • If making people uncomfortable
  • If they are strongly voicing there options, even in other sub, that may be harmful.
  • Keep them on a shorter leash
  • Maybe? Or at least make posting that stuff against the rules
  • No opinion
  • Only ban when breaking rules, but dismissing trans women & gnc/nb trans peeps should be against the rules
  • Only if they are putting forth their beliefs in a way to claim that people are not valid.
  • Still don't know anything about the transmedicalists but ban the terfs
  • TERFs have no rights and should go. Transmedicalists are... Kinda difficult? I used to consider myself trans and sorta get where they're coming from. I think it's just a generational issue? I don't think they should be banned outright, like TERFs should, but it should be made very clear that MeIRLGBT isn't the place to discuss that
  • Yeah, but only if you are sure they are terfs/transmed
  • yes, because they're harmful to trans communities and this subreddit should be safe.
Again, a generally anti-terf attitude, which is expected from previous questions.
Once again, this is mostly to inform my moderation style. I am hesitant to ban people because I don’t want to be seen as a powertripping mod out to get everybody. These results, alongside the other terf/transmed ones, are kind of encouraging me to take a slightly heavier hand than I currently am. Again, some specific responses at the end!

WHAT WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE MORE OF? 98/467

This was complete free-entry, so I’ve gone in and grouped a bunch of the responses together.
  • Ace content: 3
  • Bi content: 4
  • Less bigots
  • Positivity/wholesome shit: 4
  • Trans content: 5
  • Commie shit: 2
  • Garlic bread: 2
  • That Gay Shit: 13
  • OC
  • More activity in general: 5
  • POC content
  • Memes: 25
  • NB content
  • Questioning content
  • Women
  • Intersex content
  • Surveys: 2
  • allowing different titles
  • mod posts for awareness days (ie bisexuality awareness, TDOR, etc)
  • more response to reports
  • peace, love, and understanding
  • a monthly challenge to make themed memes
  • clarity as to what this neat little subreddit is about
  • support threads/posts
Other responses were generally just “nothin, we good”, so that makes up the rest of the responses.
Further answers at the end!

WHAT WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE LESS OF? 75/467

  • ”Hello gays”. Not everybody in /me_irlgbt is gay.
  • [i removed these comments for being transphobic lol]: 2
  • trolls/bigots: 21
  • That Het Shit: 3
  • That Gay Shit
  • surveys
  • reposts: 6
  • text posts
  • non-meme content: 6
  • baby yoda
  • Capitalism.
  • Christmas decorations in October
  • Contrapoints memes
  • self-deprecating humour: 2
  • equating tops/bottoms to personality or body types. this isn't yoai it's real life, and i know this is more of an overall issue with the gay community but it's pretty prevalent on this sub
  • MYSELF
  • i hope the rest of your day is the best of your day.
Okay to the people who said they want less of themselves and less gay shit you are in the wholeass wrong place are you okay
Reposts seem to be a common issue. Could you lot do me a favour and post in the comments what you think are common reposts? I come on and browse the sub but I really rely on things you report to me, so I don’t always see common reposts.
As far as specific content you don’t like, I’m afraid that’s gonna be a self-directed thing for yall. Downvote the non-rulebreaking content you don’t like and hopefully people will get the message!
Lol @ the one person who said less surveys. Ur in one. Cant stop wont stop x

ANYTHING ELSE TO ADD?

ily, thank you, etc
This shit sweet as hell thank you for taking the time to add it in at the end ily
“all my answers need the addendum of “I am an idiot, and there are many things I don’t know”
Gurl same
Hi
Hi. how u doin
I am a gay
Absolutely. We love that for you.
[bee movie script]
Hi. no. dislike.
Comrades! You have nothing to lose but your chains!
There’s like 5 of you that said this and i love it
imagine being sega and not working towards creating and publishing a new jet set radio future game; absolutely criminal
Imagine being sega. Can’t relate
Perhaps a link in the side bar we can click to escape the subreddit, especially on mobile if possible.
Honestly not a bad idea. I’ll look into this.
Please just add the QA to the name. It’s 2 letters
I’m sorry, i can’t change the subreddit name. I’ll add it to the sidebar tho <3
Sexual attraction is bourgeois
Idk what this means but it is now one of the central tenets of my faith
Thanks for all the “other” options
You’re welcome it made like, 100x more work for me, but i kinda like that we have a smidge of qualitative data alongside all the quantitative shit.
Thanks for letting me participate despite my non LGBT status
Thanks for being chill!
You people need to calm down. I can sense that this energy primarily comes from North America, so I will explain. The level of discrimination and the lack of basic human rights are so extreme, people cannot stand it anymore even if they are not fully aware of these subconscious vibes, so they need to pull extremely in the other direction to make up for this. And hence you have this kind of subculture that emerges as result. The problem is that, you people are as bad as the other end of the problem because you're as extreme, and it translates into over the top aggression and people so insanely touchy they see an attack in absolutely everything, even if they are not being attacked. Become aware of these energies, and chill.
Gurl are you like okay? Do you need a lie down? Some fruit snacks? Everything okay at home?

ADDRESSING COMMENTS

“I think we need mods who do more than just let people police the sub themselves. We may only need a new mod if the current mods don’t change how they mod. Respond to reports is what I’m saying (I don’t see almost any removed comments ever)”
I’m gonna hold my hands up here, I have generally sucked ass at this. I rely almost completely on you lot reporting things to me, but for the longest time I had a big ol mod queue that was just overwhelming to look at. I’ve made changes to this in the past few weeks, including
*expanding automod scripts. Automod now deletes certain slurs automatically, as well as any comment that might be mentioning or encouraging suicide. This is a big help because obviously trolls will rely on their old faithful slurs. I was hesitant to do this because I think we all have a right to slur reclamation, but I think the benefits outweigh that right now. *I got a fancy new mod plugin! It’s called toolbox, and basically just tells me whenever a new post is made so I can approve it or not, and it tells me when I have new reports. It’s made the whole experience less stressful *I spent a day addressing all the shit in the queue. The subreddit used to be like, full anarchy, so there were reports going back 2 years. Again, I take responsibility for that. I’ve been a shitty mod and I am addressing that.
I hope these changes help address those concerns.
” i think a little more mod participation would be cool. just seeing admins in comments laughing and joking along with us, and sharing in the memes”
I’ve honestly been thinking about this comment for a while. I try to avoid posting here because, again, I’ve seen a lot of criticism of mods who participate too much in their own subs, especially when they distinguish their posts. I don’t wanna look like a dick, yknow? But I like this comment and I’m gonna try and just hang out with you lot more <3
Mod posts for awareness days (ie bisexuality awareness, TDOR, etc)
I kinda think this idea slaps. Does anybody have a calendar of important LGBT dates? I think we could tie this into the other comment about challenges for themed memes, where appropriate.
Clarity as to what this neat little subreddit is about
Me_irlgbt is a queer shitposting subreddit. It’s generally for memes and queer fuckery. Not selfies. That’s about it.
Support threads/posts
Okay, so, the reason I’m not going to do this is because I feel that if I post a thread for support, I then have a duty of care to anybody who posts in it. I do not have the capability, time, or knowledge to provide that duty of care, so I feel it would be strongly unethical to do this, regardless of how good the intentions are. I think it’s a well-meaning idea, I just wanted to clarify why I’m personally not comfortable with it.
Not everybody in me_irlgbt is gay. Can we have more inclusivity?
When I use “gay” on this subreddit, especially if I’m referring to the general mass of users, I wholeheartedly mean it in a community way. Like, “we, the gays” as contrapoints once said. You are welcome here. This isn’t the only response along these lines, so I will keep it in mind when making changes.
And we’re done! Holy shit that was a long post. This has taken me 6 days to edit. Again, reiterating from the top, I’m not an adept researchedata analyst, so I’m sure many people could’ve done a MUCH better job looking at these results, but I think this will do for now.
Thank you so much to everybody who responded. It’s been really interesting for me to have a look at this, and pretty cool to get to fuck around with all this data. Thank you ilysm <3

TL;DR

  • The population on this subreddit trends young, mostly 18-24
  • Most people live in the US
  • Most people are white
  • We have slightly more male-identified people than female, but not significantly so.
  • Roughly a quarter of respondents are trans-identified.
  • Most people use she/her or he/him pronouns. Around 18% use they/them, with the rest “other” or neopronouns.
  • About 60% of the people here identify as bisexual or pansexual, 17% lesbian, 16% gay, 17% asexual. These responses do overlap with many people using multiple labels for themselves.
  • mostly high school or college educated, which makes sense with the age demographics
  • overwhelmingly left-leaning politically
  • generally positive feelings towards the subreddit/mods
  • mostly atheist/agnostic religious views
  • 74% of respondents are single/not in a relationship.
  • 88% of respondents do not like TERFs
  • about half of respondents do not like transmedicalists, but 28% are neutral
  • 60% of respondents think we maybe need more mods
  • other responses just need to be read lol
submitted by lowkeyterrible to me_irlgbt [link] [comments]

Results of the Subreddit Survey

This time last week, we put out a subreddit survey to gather demographic info and solicit opinions on the current state of Rule 8 (low-effort content) and Rule 9 (non-original fanart).
In 7 days, the survey got 1,558 responses, which is a whopping 0.77% of our 203,000 subscribers. We didn't expect to get anywhere close to full participation, given that a bunch of those subscribers are probably no longer active, and more still just view /FireEmblem through their own front page and so they were never going to see the survey in the first place. Effectively, each response to the survey is "representing" 130 people.
While perusing these results, it's important to keep in mind that this survey expresses the opinion of respondents to the survey, not necessarily our subscriber base at large. That said, we are still going to look to its results in informing our policies.
Here are the results.

Demographics

Three-quarters of respondents are male. According to this random article I found on Google, estimations of the gender balance on Reddit puts the male userbase at somewhere between 50 and 71%, meaning we skew slightly disproportionately male. I wouldn't look too far into it, though, given the response rate.
Around 70% of respondents are between the ages of 18 and 27, as expected. A mere 3% of respondents are older than 32 or younger than 13.
No particular trends in the number of years the respondents have been on Reddit.
About one-fifth of respondents joined the subreddit in the 6 months after Three Houses' release, and another one-fifth joined in the year or so preceding Three Houses' release. Let's compare this to our subscriber stats:
In the time between the release of the first Three Houses trailer (June 2018) and the game's release (July 2019), we went from 81,000 subscribers to 123,000. That means roughly 20% of our current subscriber base joined in that time, which matches up with the representation in the survey.
Meanwhile, between Three Houses' release and now, we've shot up from 123,000 subscribers to our current figure of 203,000. If those new subscribers were properly represented in the survey, they should fill up about 40% of the pie, not 20%. This suggests that brand new subscribers are underrepresented in the survey responses. Some of those might've subscribed to the sub for some hot tips while they were playing the game, and stopped looking at it afterward. Some might have subscribed because of the surge of fanart that accompanied release. I guess new subscribers just prefer to view the sub via their own front page. We're not 100% sure. All we know is that there's some sort of underrepresentation in these results.
Less than 10% of respondents post enough to consider themselves "active" in the sub. Including a third option here felt like kind of a cop-out, but surely if we left it between "active" and "not active", a lot of people would be unsure where they stood. Frankly, I was surprised by this result, because I figured that the only people who would care enough to respond to a big dumb survey would be the same people who care enough to actively post. Apparently not. What's up, all you politically-active lurkers?

Fire Emblem Games

Okay, disclaimer, I bungled things up here with regard to TMS♯FE. It was only brought to my attention that I forgot to include it as an option after 490 responses were already submitted. As such, I'll list the actual percentages for it in the remaining thousand or so responses below.
Here's a graph of which FE games respondents have PLAYED, but not necessarily beaten. TMS♯FE's real percentage is around 11%. Unsurprisingly, nearly all respondents have tried out Three Houses, and then Awakening follows it up. The very first FE game, Shadow Dragon and the Blade of Light, is also unsurprisingly the least-played game.
The graph for which FE games respondents have BEATEN turns out similarly. TMS's actual percentage is around 7%. Unsurprisingly, the NES games also have the highest discrepancy between playing a game and beating it – less than 50% of people who've tried FE1 or FE2 have actually beaten them. If you flip between the two graphs, you'll see that the only game that changes position between them is FE11 - more respondents have beaten Radiant Dawn than Shadow Dragon despite the fact that Shadow Dragon is slightly more-played.
What were respondents' FIRST FE games, and which is their FAVOURITE? Because the visuals are unhelpful, here's a chart of the responses. I think Reddit formatting should let you sort the columns by frequency if you click the headings.
Game FIRST FAVOURITE
FE1 3 0
FE2 2 0
FE3 7 0
FE4 8 76
FE5 3 35
FE6 31 40
FE7 332 56
FE8 206 80
FE9 82 90
FE10 62 134
FE11 71 11
FE12 1 18
FE13 453 117
BR 62 5
CQ 33 35
RV 3 7
FE15 10 62
FE16 115 732
Heroes 48 7
Warriors 2 3
TMS 1 3
*Again, TMS got screwed, so multiply its responses by 1.5 to get an estimate of what it should've gotten.
Contrary to what one might expect, Awakening still dominates the first-game category for our respondents, followed by the localized GBA titles, and only then does Three Houses show up. If Fates's three versions are combined, it ends up right below Three Houses and right above Path of Radiance. This might be tied into our underrepresentation of new subscribers – presumably a lot of them started with Three Houses.
Meanwhile, Three Houses certainly dominates the favourite-game category, with nearly half of respondents saying it's their #1. Either the game is well-loved, or recency bias is a big thing. Or both. Radiant Dawn has to settle for a distant second place, followed by Awakening and Path of Radiance, all in single digit percentages. Unsurprisingly, Three Houses also takes the crown for the highest favourite/played ratio – 49.7% of people who've played Three Houses listed it as their favourite game, far higher than any other game.
Don't let the colours of this graph fool you - one-third of respondents sided with the Blue Lions first, while more than a third chose Black Eagles and less than a third chose Golden Deer.

Rule 9

Rule 9 concerns fanart. It states that fanart can only be posted by its original artist, or someone who paid the artist to create it and who is posting it with permission. As such, we remove any "found fanart". I've documented our reasons for Rule 9 in the survey post, so please refer to that if you have questions about why it exists.
First off, how do respondents feel about the current amount of fanart on the sub? Well… they feel… differently. We polled this using a sliding scale from 1 to 5, where 1 means "I want way more fanart on the sub", 5 means "I want way less fanart on the sub", 3 means the current amount is okay, and 2 and 4 represent their respective extremes, but, like, less extreme. As you can see, the sub is undoubtedly divided on this, but to our pleasant surprise, a plurality of respondents indicated that they don't want more or less. Nearly half of respondents chose 3, while the remaining 50% were divided almost equally between wanting more or less. Hooray for no-win situations.
That in itself, however, wouldn't be enough to justify not touching Rule 9, so we asked about it specifically. Nearly three-quarters of respondents are fine with the current Rule 9. Most of the rest want it to be relaxed. A small percentage want us to ban fanart entirely. An (undocumented) amount presumably would be happy if we confined all fanart to a single day of the week or some other measure to cut down on art without outright banning it. We aren't considering that as a course of action, which is why it wasn't included on the poll.
We also asked if users would be open to having a single day of the week where non-OC fanart could be posted (properly-sourced, obviously). Almost immediately after putting this question up, we realized that this would probably be a bad idea, and so we're glad that the response was rather lukewarm. A 45/55 split might not sound like it's definitive, but having given it some thought, it's nowhere near the result we would need to justify actually putting that plan into action.
We also included a section for free-form feedback on Rule 9. At the bottom of this post I'll include a link to an anonymized spreadsheet containing all the free-form responses we got for each question like that.
Given what you're about to see next in the Rule 8 section (hoo boy), we're going to go ahead and consider a 75% vote in favour of keeping Rule 9 the same a wild endorsement of our preferred course of action, which is this:
Going forward, Rule 9 will be unchanged.

Rule 8

Rule 8 concerns low-effort content, including unedited screenshots, pictures of merch/game boxes, and memes. After Three Houses released, we started enforcing Rule 8 so strictly that memes as a whole were effectively banned.
On this survey, we polled each component of Rule 8 separately to see if respondents thought they should be allowed on the sub.
Should unedited screenshots of dialogue be allowed? A little over 50% of respondents said no. There isn't sufficient support here for us to reconsider our stance on this one. I want to be clear here in saying that we're not looking for majority rule necessarily – our decision would be the same if the numbers were flipped and slightly more than 50% of respondents said yes instead.
Should unedited screenshots of gameplay be allowed? Here there was less of a split. Around 60% of respondents said yes. According to the free-form results (again, linked at the bottom of the post), we get the impression that some people would like gameplay screenshots to be allowed if they show something interesting, instead of just, you know, a shot of a maxed-out Ike or getting a 1% crit. If that was our policy, we'd then have to judge those posts based not on effort, but how noteworthy and radical they were. While I personally am not super opposed to a coolness-based moderating system, we'd prefer that gameplay stuff be confined to the Everyone Plays Fire Emblem thread or shared via self-posts rather than reversing our stance on screenshots. (Of course, EPFE has ironically been temporarily suspended to make room for these survey posts, but that's a separate problem.) 60% support isn't overwhelming enough for us to reconsider this part of the rule.
Should merch posts or pictures of game boxes be allowed, keeping in mind that "collection" posts are already allowed and would continue to be? Around 70% said no, so this is clearly the part of the rule that we're going to get yelled at about the least.
And then we arrive at the big one – memes. Three options here, as well as a free-form "Other" option that… I'm not really sure why we included when we had a separate free-form section right after. Whoops. Anyway, around 20% of respondents are fine with the current anti-meme Rule 8, another 20% want all memes to be allowed, and the remaining 60% would prefer a discretion-based system where we only remove memes that are truly "low-effort". Herein lies the rub: even the people who answered that question the same have different views about what makes something low-effort. If we do end up going back to the discretion-based system, we either have to somehow nail down a solid definition for what makes something removable, or else deal with posts on a case-by-case basis.
The possible problems with a discretionary system encouraged us to include a separate option on the survey. We asked respondents whether they would be supportive of a system where memes were restricted to a single day of the week. This was independent of their answer to the previous question, so if someone voted "no", they could have meant "no, I want memes every day" or "no, I don't memes at all". At least one respondent said that this binary choice indicated a lack of integrity of the mod team, that it was emblematic of the fact that we had already decided to ban memes before even making the poll, and that we should repoll the question. Given that we already covered that distinction in the previous question, it wasn't really relevant for the purposes of this question. All this question asked was whether you would support a meme day, because frankly, we just wanted to know to what extent such an arrangement would piss people off, not why.
Slightly over two-thirds of respondents indicated that they would be okay with a meme day system.
This leaves the mod team with two viable options – either we return to a discretionary system where some memes live and some die, or we cut the knot and allow most memes, save for those that violate Rule 1, on a single day of the week. We have not yet decided which approach we prefer – admittedly, the team is split. We wanted to get these results to you as soon as possible, though, in advance of having actually made a decision. One thing is clear, though: with only 20% of respondents happy with the current state of Rule 8, we can't just leave things as they are.
A factor that is going to colour our decision is, again, how divided the sub is on this issue. A lot of the free-form responses (which, to be fair, make up a relatively small percentage of the sub) expressed that the curbing of low-effort content is a big reason some people enjoy the sub. Meanwhile, other responses indicated that banning memes has killed the sub. To an extent, we can't win. If we return to a discretionary system, some people are going to hate that some memes are still banned, and some people are going to be upset that memes are allowed again at all. If we go with a meme day instead, some people are going to be upset that we half-assed it, and others are going to find the sub unusable on that day of the week.
We can't please everyone. We have to go with whatever is more practical. We're currently hashing this out.
In summary:
Screenshots and merch posts will remain banned. Rule 8 will be loosened with regard to memes in a manner to be determined.

Free-form responses and general feedback

We included a question about how good the mod team is doing in general. Stop it, you guys, we're blushing.
Finally, we included free-form response sections on the following topics, with the following response rates:
  1. Any thoughts on Rule 8?
  2. Any thoughts on Rule 9?
  3. Any other rules that should be modified?
  4. Any general feedback?
These responses contained some really good thoughts. For transparency, here is a Google doc containing all of the responses, with each column alphabetized for anonymity, and I do mean all of the responses, including the handful that I would have preferred to remove because they contained personal call-outs. I did take the liberty of censoring the responses we got that were just the n-word. The main thing to take away from these responses is that y'all can't agree on anything. As you can see, depending on the question, these free-form questions got between 93 and 248 responses, so they make up a smaller subset of our already-small sample size, so while they do represent important viewpoints of our subscribers, take them with a tiny grain of salt.
Oh, right, which mod would win in a fight. That was also a question. Well, first of all, we're all winners because we get to serve this wonderful community. That said:
Mod Respondents
"I have no idea who any of these people are" 693
Bot-ta_The_Beast 209
[question left blank] 148
LaqOfInterest 147
ForsetiHype 59
Shephen 49
Lhyon 42
RotomGuy 40
Gwimpage 34
Cecilyn 31
PrinceofIris 29
LeminaAusa 20
V2Blast 18
stalwartness 16
DoseofDhillon 12
Okkefac 11
I'd like to thank the Academy for awarding me a single vote less than the people who cared so little about this that they didn't even bother to pick the "I don't care" answer. Benefits of stealing the "post every announcement thread" job.
submitted by LaqOfInterest to fireemblem [link] [comments]

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