Tracking the betting markets rather than the pollss
Pretty much every day a new poll will be released which we'll all analyse to death, that's fine but I also feel we'll get value from the betting markets. Most major sites give over and under odds on the number of seats each party will win in the election which, theoretically, represents their best guess. It's not perfect and betting trends will effect these numbers but the betting companies will want to be as accurate as possible, they stand to lose a lot of money if they're wrong. So what are the betting sites saying? I've only started tracking the odds today but when I looked last week they were predicting the Tories to get around 326 seats, that's gone down already. Skybet gives the Tories the most credit with 323.5 seats, the lowest is Betfair and Paddy Power with 317.5. the average across the 6 sites I'm tracking in 320. Betfair is an outlier for Labour at 237.5 seats, the rest range from 212.5 to 221.5. Betfair seem to believe that the LDs are going to fade and aren't going to take seats off of Labour, they have them at 25.5, the other sites range from 37.5 to 42.5. Interestingly every site agrees on both the SNP and the Brexit Party, the SNP are on 50.5 and the BXP are on 0.5 on every site that offers odds (William hill don't on the SNP and BXP and Ladbrokes don't on the BXP). I'm going to track these odds over the next few weeks and see if they're are any trends. Edited to fix typo
If anyone ever asks you why Ethereum is worth something: 19 Easy-to-grasp use cases for blockchain
Everyone knows that money has value because people believe it has value. If I can buy a sandwich from you for a few Finneys, then it doesn't matter if it's backed by gold or not. It's backed by trust. While this might be true, some people need more convincing. So here are 19 use-cases for Ethereum in the present and not-too-distant future: 1) Banking the unbanked. With their move towards automated/no checkout stores, Amazon has run into some issues regarding unbanked people. The idea is that automated stores discriminate against people who for whatever reason are unable to open or hold a bank account. With Ethereum, anyone with a smartphone could deposit a small amount of ETH in a grocery budget that Amazon could charge. No more discrimination. In developing nations, limited access to online banking and investing is a problem on a much grander scale, one which Ethereum seeks to tackle. 2) Tokenized assets. Although this relies on either broad social consensus or an element of decentralization, tokenization of real world assets is a big use case for blockchain. You could buy gold, real estate, financial instruments, and much more in a decentralized and transparent marketplace. Dexes make markets 24/7, increase liquidity, and expand access too those previously unable to take part in the financial world. 3) Decentralized stock ownership. Tokenization of commodities is not the end of the line for Dexes. With enough adoption, you could tokenize stock ownership, basically bringing Nasdaq to Ethereum. Not only will trading be easier, but brokerage fees could be significantly lower or non-existent, especially for low-value transactions. 4) International money transfer. Currently, it is slow and expensive to transmit money internationally. Blockchain has no borders, and allows for fast, secure transfer of wealth anywhere in the world. 5) Defi (Maker, compound). Most of you already know how great MakerDao is. Decentralized finance has the ability to be extremely disruptive, especially when paired with Dexes. Not only do stablecoins like Dai solve the issue of crypto volatility, but systems like MakerDao allow the possibility of decentralized leverage. Eventually, even leveraging assets like gold and real estate will be possible. But Defi isn't just for us decentralization junkies. Compound allows the collection of passive income on a stablecoin that tracks the dollar. Whether or not they ever buy Ether, traditional investors would froth at the mouth if there was an accessible way to earn 10% annual interest on a truly secure coin that tracked the USD. 6) Notarization. Consider the possibility of putting a document on the blockchain as an alternative to paying a public notary. Imagine a world where you don't eSign documents with Docusign, but with a Dapp. 7) Single sign-on. If web3 takes off and sites are all wallet compatible, you could perform single-sign on through an extension like Metamask. You get all the benefits of single-sign on that you get with Google and Facebook, without the looming menace of big brother controlling all of your accounts. 8) Social media (Peepeth). New social media sites may arise on the blockchain, creating censorship-free environments which encourage content creation. Records are never destroyed, leading to (hopefully) a higher level of accountability. Some sites may choose to tie accounts to identity, while others may remain anonymous forums. 9) Identity Verification. Instead of a social security number, governments could issue blockchain addresses tied to identity. This has a multitude of uses, including an easy way to get a government-issued ID, which is currently a roadblock for many disenfranchised voters. 10) Voting. Imagine a world where you could vote for your favorite candidates securely from the comfort of your own home, without lines or IDs or solicitors or the electoral college. You could check to verify that your vote actually made it where it was supposed to go. But blockchain doesn't have to just replace voting booths. It has the potential to revolutionize the entire current system of representation in many countries around the world. For example, a government could implement rolling elections. What if you could change your vote at any time, and a new election could be triggered by a spontaneous poll of no confidence. 11) Advertising (Bat/Brave). Using cryptocurrency in a web3 compatible browser, you can earn small amounts of money from publishers for watching their ads. You could also use this money to automatically pay content creators online based on how often you use their services. 12) Gambling (DICE). Online casinos are already around and thriving. Agree or disagree with the morality of it, it's a real use case. Not only that, it's an improvement over a lot of existing gambling, because games are provably fair. When you walk into a casino, all the games are stacked against you so that the house always has a big edge. With gambling on blockchain, you can look at the contract to verify what the house edge is. With many current projects, the edge is very low. Additionally, brick and mortar casinos could implement blockchain games on their floors (FUN). 13) Prediction markets (Augur). By creating decentralized betting environments, you can not only make money on interesting bets, but you can use the wisdom of the crowd to essentially get free polling data. Want to bet on whether Brexit will ever happen? Great! Want to see what the "Vegas odds" are for it? Now it's easy. Just see how people are betting. 14) Gaming. The gaming industry makes a ton of money by selling in-game items. DOTA 2 is one of the most popular games out there, and is completely free to play. Why? Because people pay for funny hats for their heroes. If these collectibles were sold on the blockchain, players would have true ownership of the items. This is a big deal for online card games in particular, where incumbents like Hearthstone could be disrupted by Relentless or GodsUnchained. Tokens could be transferred and traded without limitations, and even if the company goes out of business, players still own the tokens. Other developers could even create their own competing implementation of a game using the same in-game assets. But this isn't the only improvement blockchain brings to gaming. Another big one is interoperability. Essentially, items no longer have to be specific to a single game. Indie developers could incorporate achievements and items from big titles into their own games. This is already happening. You can get a Cryptokitties collectible in GodsUnchained. Another card game, Mythereum, even allowed you to turn your kitties into functional cards! 15) Crowdfunding. This one goes without saying. After all, this was a big part of the ICO craze. But fundraising doesn't have to be scammy like it was for many of these vaporware projects. Non-securities style fundraising could be done in a style similar to kickstarter. Funds could be automatically returned if goals are not met, which could be determined by a smart contract or an oracle. 16) IOT. No one really knows how big the Internet Of Things will become. One thing is clear. If your car is an independent entity, it will need to be able to buy its own gas, electricity, tolls, and car washes. In a future where you only use your self-driving car 5% of the time, you could rent it out to a ridesharing company to act as a cab for the rest of the day, drastically reducing the cost of ownership. Companies are already experimenting with cars sporting their own virtual wallets to handle all the little transactions they'll need to get through the day. 17)Automatic freelancing. With Ethereum, one could write a contract which would essentially be a 'for hire' ad, with a bounty to be collected upon the task's completion. The terms of the contract could be specified such that verification would need to be performed in the case of a dispute. Verifiers could be paid a small fee to vote on whether disputed contracts had been completed satisfactorily. Research organizations could even put a bounty on something like a mathematical proof! 18) Royalties distribution. Imagine a band making music, broadcasted on the radio, TV, Spotify,... The singer, bassist, guitarist, drummer, sound engineer, PR person, designer of the album, label,... all might want a share on every dollar made. Today, this process (collection and redistribution) takes months. A smart contract could make this happen in real time. (creditu/Ethical-trade ) 19) Ticket sales and secondary markets. Concert tickets currently have a problem. They are either non-transferable, or they can be sold easily, but scalpers drive up the price to insane levels. Make your arguments about free markets, but no one wants tickets to be bought in 60 seconds after they are listed, only to be sold at a 1000% markup. Venues could solve this problem by selling tickets on the blockchain. Tickets could be made transferable, static, or partially static, programmatically limiting markups to say, 150% of original sale price. Some of these use-cases might fall through completely. Some might require too much social change, or the impossible dream of governmental adoption. But never let anyone tell you that blockchains have no potential. The potential is huge, and, like in the internet of the early days, no one can imagine where it is going. Here are some just companies and functions that could be replaced with Ethereum: GoFundMe, KickStarter, Docusign, Venmo, TicketFly, eTrade (eventually), online casinos, single-sign on functions of Google and Facebook, games like Hearthstone and MTG. Perhaps the biggest disruption will come in the form of an industry that doesn't even exist today. Edit: I completely forgot about supply chain management. :D
As Trump’s Impeachment Odds Double, Betting Spikes Around the World
The odds that Donald Trump will leave office before the end of his first term nearly doubled Wednesday. That’s according to data compiled on wagers on the fate of the beleaguered president placed by bettors from around the globe in the past 24 hours. The spike comes in the wake of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s dramatic announcement on Tuesday that the House of Representatives would open a formal impeachment inquiry against the president. Overseas opinion polls of Trump have never amounted to Tweet-worthy material on the president’s Twitter feed. As was the case with other U.S. presidents, Trump’s popularity abroad has been lower than the ratings he gets in the U.S., particularly in Western Europe. Pelosi’s announcement was front-page news in dozens of newspapers across the globe, including in Germany’s Handelsblatt_and France’s _Le Monde. Despite that, the overall odds are still in Trump’s favor. The betting market information site Odds Watch says there is around a 20 percent chance Trump will fail to finish his first term, whether because of impeachment, resignation, or anything else. But as the site’s founder Brendon Ferris told Fortune, one chance in five is around the same odds the site gave for a Trump victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, or for the Brexit campaign to win a few months before that. Odds Watch and sites like it base their projections on money laid down by regular people from around the world on a host of betting sites rather than on opinion polls or on the views of pundits or insiders. “The site is my effort to help make some sense out of chaotic world,” said Ferris, 41, a self-proclaimed “digital nomad” who was born in Australia and who lives on Bali. “I look at it as a scientific way to get to the truth, measuring the opinions of people who have strong enough opinions on a subject to put money on it.” The idea isn’t as strange as it sounds. The term “The Wisdom of Crowds” was coined 15 years ago by author James Surowiecki. In his book with that title, Surowiecki tells the story of the English polymath Sir Francis Galton, a half-cousin of Charles Darwin who collected data from the 1906 West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition. At the exhibition, passersby—whether butchers, farmers, clerks, or curious onlookers—were challenged to guess the weight of a steer. Though many of the individual guesses where off by hundreds of pounds, Galton’s research showed the average of the 787 guesses was off by a mere single pound. Similar methods have been used to get amazingly close to the number of jellybeans in a glass jar or the number of tennis balls loaded into a Volkswagen Beetle. The U.S. Department of Defense even toyed with the idea of setting up what was to be called a Policy Analysis Market to use bettors to gain insight into geopolitical events like the likelihood of a terrorist attack in the United States; the idea was eventually abandoned. The wisdom-of-crowds theory is based on the notion that the collective intelligence of a group will be reliably more effective at solving problems, making sage decisions, sparking innovation, or even predicting the future than even the wisest individual in that group. “The wisdom of the crowds is at work in the world in many different guises,” Surowiecki wrote. “It’s the reason Google can scan billions of web pages and find the one page that has the exact piece of information you were looking for. It’s the reason it’s so hard to make money betting on NFL games.” What does it all mean for Trump? Ferris said it’s far too early to tell. But monitoring the wisdom of the crowds is a way to have a finger in the air to determine which way the political winds are blowing.
Hey - Pat from StarterStory.com here with another interview. Today's interview is with Leslie Gilmour of Cube Digital, a brand that sells seo services agency Some stats:
Product: SEO Services Agency
Started: July 2015
Hello! Who are you and what business did you start?
I’m Leslie Gilmour and I started Cube Digital an SEO agency in 2015 - this is the second time I have started an SEO business. You may think it is easier the second time, in some ways it is. But, the second time you also know how much hard work is ahead before you will start to see results. Our main services are SEO audits and monthly SEO packages. The packages include onsite SEO, content writing, and link building. The main aim is always business growth. We work mainly with small businesses that usually have between 10 and 50 employees. Our turnover is around $25,000 per month, small in agency terms but we are growing fast. In 2015 I scraped by, but each year since we have grown turnover by around 50%.
What's your backstory and how did you come up with the idea?
The Accidental SEO Business One evening in February 2006 my frustration overcame my writing ability and I tore up my latest attempt to write a novel and dumped it in the bin. The next morning I woke thinking I should know how to build a website. I started that day learning HTML and CSS. I had studied some outdated programming languages in the 1990s so I found it fairly easy. The year previously I had walked 500 miles across Spain on the pilgrimage known as the Camino de Santiago. So I built a website about that journey. This is us at the end of the route in 2005. image The website was ugly and did not have great content and no one visited. I emailed everyone I knew to tell them about my great new website - still Google hated me and sent nobody. I then started looking at the top search results for the main search term. While researching how they ranked highly I discovered SEO. That set me on my new SEO career, though I had no idea at the time. I became obsessive about rankings and traffic, building backlinks, creating better content and by Christmas of 2006 the site ranked at number 1 for its main term. I put ads from Google on the website and actually made some money. That motivated me again to start creating other websites. By mid 2007 I was offering SEO as a service. My First Business From 2007 to 2010 I worked mainly for web design companies as their in-house SEO expert. SEO worked well for these businesses and I ran training courses and found some of my own clients. It was a fun time for search optimisation as ranking in Google was easy. A Break to Work in-house During 2010 I received an offer to work for a sports betting company. I have little interest in sports and no interest in betting, but I could not resist the opportunity to work with much bigger budgets. This was a roller coaster ride for the next five years. Google had decided to fight back against the tactics that were being used to rank websites. This resulted in the Panda and Penguin algorithm updates that decimated some websites. We were hit and recovered on an on-going basis. Dealing with the intensity of ongoing algorithm updates was both disheartening and helped sharpen my skills. There were months where we ranked in the first page for ultra competitive keywords and then for months there was little traffic. From a business and career perspective the decision to go in-house was a mistake. I focused on one niche and stopped building my own brand - I stopped writing. Starting an Agency a Second Time In the middle of 2015, the company I worked for suffered the final blow when their ability to bring on new customers was terminated. I was unemployed and now living in a foreign country. I rebuilt my old business website. I still owned the domain, but it was dormant and not been updated in years. As soon as the website was presentable, about a week, I started reaching out to businesses I had worked with pre 2010. Almost immediately, I had a couple of small budget clients, within 6 months I had my first long term larger client - they are still a client today I am happy to say.
Take us through the process of defining your services and getting the business started.
My first product was link building. Link building was where I had started in 2006, it worked in 2010 and it still works today. I quickly added website audits, Google Adwords, on-site optimisation, and local SEO. I knew I needed writers and hired on a per project basis from Upwork. The process for reaching out, writing and sending the finished post was the first one written. It has been reviewed many times since. Link building is incredibly simple. You ask someone if they will publish a post, they say yes or no. That is the basics. And if you are doing this for your own website it is easy to organise. The problems start when you have 15 websites and you need 150 or 200 published posts per month. The biggest issue is keeping quality high while still being profitable. Our process looks like this:
List all competitors
List main keywords in niche
Scrape all the website linking to competitors
Scrape Google for websites using keywords in niche
Drop it all into URL profiler and pull the main stats
Export the best sites to a Google sheet
View each website for suitability
Find the contact name and emails for each website
Import all data into Buzzstream
When the process works well, the results are great. We now have five people working full time on outreach and many more contract writers. My first two hires are have now become my content and outreach managers. They are great and have continued to improve our process. The growth has been a challenge. My background is link building and because of that I interferrered too much. I needed to learn to let go and trust others to manage. Cash flow is different to profit. Of course everyone knows this. I knew, but the reality of it is different to the experience. My first cash flow problem happened during a period of high growth. I discovered that I needed to build up cash reserves and not spend all income on growth or production. Each new client “costs” my business two months of operating costs due to the billing cycles and when clients pay.
Describe the process of launching the business.
I didn’t need much money to start, most service business require little upfront investment. My aim during the first few months was to pay my home bills. Outside of that, I had no business plan. I built my own website and started writing service pages and blog posts. My service pages were well targeted, but my blog posts were too technical and would only appeal to others in the industry or someone looking to solve a problem they were working on - not the right target market. It took a while to realise that I am building a business. I am not a consultant, a freelancer or a self employed contractor. This changed the way I view myself, my work, and the clients I want to work with. I clearly saw I needed help and outsourced as much as possible. Outsourcing is a great way to learn how to hire. Both my first two hires were outsourcers I had worked with.
Biggest Lessons From The Launch
Pricing Being cheap results in being seen as less valuable. Developing a pricing policy that undercuts the rest of the market is an incredibly hard habit to break. During the last 18 months I have had to deal with the fear of losing client when increasing prices. So far no client has left due to a price increase. The first time I knew I had to increase a client’s price I sat with it for over a week before doing anything. Then I sat down and wrote the email. I was scared. What if they just left, what if they said my work was not good enough for that price, what if they just laughed at me? (Ah my demons) I sent the email and there was no push back on the increase from the client. I still instinctively think of lower quotes than the work requires with every new client. I am getting quicker at charging the right price - but The Fear is always lurking in the background. Process Write it down as early as possible. I had no idea my time was going to be so limited as the business grew. Like most others, I have played catch up with processes. For example, every month I run through a Google Search Console checklist for all client’s websites. I knew what to do, I have doing doing this for a long time, but all the detail was only in my head. I thought I could just write the checklist as I completed the checks one month. I had no idea how detailed processes were going to be. As I wrote I discovered it would take me the whole day. This process ended up being over 2,000 words and it is broken down as simply as click here, check this, add the result to the sheet. Quality It shows in everything I do. If answering an email, fully answer. Unfortunately I could live in my inbox all day, but that leads to lower overall satisfaction and productivity. I am deliberately slower in answering all emails, (emergency excluded). If I answer an email fast I will likely have mails pinging back and forth. Because of this I take the time to fully answer emails, (and save the answers in canned response). Many people when they write emails/sentences do not include the subject in the sentence they write, as they take the subject of the sentence to be implied. This results in a lack of clarity and requires more work - I want to avoid that. Doing everything right saves time and produces better results. Too often in the digital marketing agency world cracks are papered over. Eventually these will appear. It is better to admit mistakes, errors, and sometimes admit you have no idea what happened in that last Google update. Todate, I have not been fired from an account for being direct. Service Set service guidelines. Without service guidelines clients can expect replies to emails within the next 10 minutes. At the same time provide great customer service as it makes a huge difference to clients perception of your work - no matter how good the results. Great customer service is being straightforward in a professional manner. If there is a problem, let's address the problem, problems don’t just go away on their own. I expect to reply to all client emails within 24 hours, but it is usually 6 hours. At the same time I expect replies from clients within 48 hours. Distractions Switch them off. I have no sounds or alerts on my computer. Icons alerts are off, no email alerts, the only thing that is allowed to flash on my screen are calls. If I am working on an SEO audit, I will put on out of office for email and focus on the work.
Since launch, what has worked to attract and retain customers?
Retaining clients was imperative from the start. I look for stability - perhaps odd for a business owner. I consider myself fortunate that my first few clients were all aiming for growth. I over delivered on each project and still do. My website brings in a small number of new clients each year. Around 80% of new clients are referrals. Every successful client brings in at least one new. Until very recently that was our only growth plan. I read Poor Charlie's Almanack by Charlie Munger during 2016. One line that has stuck with me - “do the work that is on your desk.” For the last two and a half years there has always been work on my desk. And today part of that work is to move some of it to someone else as quickly as possible. We have been in business long enough now to have case studies. We promote these with ads and on social - Facebook, but mostly LinkedIn. I have built up my connections on LinkedIn to around 10,000. LinkedIn sends some traffic and new business. I aim to be on publications that attract my target customer writing about business growth - not SEO. Below is an example of one ad. I find that ads with graphs and percentage increases have higher clicks. image At the end of last year we created our own content marketing plan. The content is solution focused high level and less technical. Due to business being very busy at the start of the year, that did not kick off until April. We expect to see good results by the end of quarter three. An example of a technical posts is “How to do an SEO Audit”. Whereas posts like “List of Digital Marketing Events in Ireland” drive better more relevant traffic. Another that is in the works right now is aimed at answering questions users of Google Search Console will have. This is aimed at users who know about GSC but don’t understand the error messages. People in the last category have some knowledge. But, when they understand the full extent of the work in understanding and fixing errors have the tendency to then outsource the fixes. My aim is to have 8 to 10 channels that refer business.
How are you doing today and what does the future look like?
Today the business is in good health. We have reasonable cash reserves along with monthly clients who are getting good results. As the business has grown the gross margin has dropped as the costs have increased. We have higher capacity than utilisation. The capacity issue was deliberate, and perhaps an optimistic over reaction to being under capacity during the last 6 months of 2018. It takes several months for a new employee to be fully trained. I am nervous about Brexit and I see that as a current threat. I notice my appetite for investment for growth in the UK and Ireland slightly diminished. At the same time we have started to target some sectors in the US - but it is very early. Internally there are 7 full time employees, I expect this to grow to 10 during the next year as we expand our paid ads and content offerings.
Through starting the business, have you learned anything particularly helpful or advantageous?
image It’s not only results that matters. I believed that having great results for a client meant that they never leave. I now believe that all clients will leave eventually, and that is okay. The above graph shows one of my early client’s growth over a two year period. This is an established business that had problems with digital marketing. After 10 x’ing their growth they left. I was surprised, but the owner explained “if we can do that with only you what can we do with a bigger agency with many more people?” I make the mistake of thinking that I am in the SEO business, when clients see me in the solution business. This is good to remember. The last few years has felt like extended therapy. I have had to change again and again, my views, the way I work, my time management, my perception, everything. When there is a bump in the road I can usually trace it back to myself. I highly recommend finding an experienced business coach. I started working with one early this year and it has been challenging and great. I find myself in conversations saying “I will not do that.” And then by my next session being ready to do whatever that is. Much of the coaching ends up being around my fears. Yes, fun.
What platform/tools do you use for your business?
I watch around $2,000 per month being paid out for software that we all use, it is just part of the business I am in. I prefer WordPress for all websites, and some specialist shopping platforms, like Magento, for large projects. Tools that we use everyday include:
What have been the most influential books, podcasts, or other resources?
“Nobody knows how to run a business until they run a business.” - The Hard Thing About Hard Things, Ben Horowitz. This allowed me to be a bit more forgiving with myself for my many mistakes. Tim Ferriss’ podcast helped me through the hard weeks of 2016/17. It is great to listen to others who have achieved success in their field, other by picking a path and staying with it. The podcast that I am loving right now is from Authority Hacker. I love learning and putting into action as quickly as possible new information.
Advice for other entrepreneurs who want to get started or are just starting out?
Have a plan. As they say any plan is better than no plan. I think planning is difficult because sitting down and thinking is difficult. Develop humility. This is easy at the start of your business. But, at some point as I gained a degree of success my ego developed. Thankfully, I have people around who told me about it. I hope it didn’t go on for too long. Slow down. Life became very busy and to overcome that I raced faster and faster through all the work. Quality suffered and my days were not happy. Slowing down helped to focus better. (Imagine not having enough time to meditate for 10 minutes - kind of crazy) Find a group of business owners to share with, not to sell to. I started working from home and quickly moved into coworking. Shortly after that I joined my first mastermind group that consisted of 6 people who were only starting out. I met with other business owners for lunch or coffee. I knew I had a lot to learn and I was like a sponge. Just over a year ago I joined Traffic Think Tank. TTT has given me the opportunity to talk with and learn from other agency owners, it has been a tremendous help. I joined Toastmasters. I disliked public speaking and understood it was a skill that would help. Enjoy the journey. It can be very frustrating running your own company. Every day gives you a new opportunity to get better and learn, but sometimes it is crazy making. I have now broken my goals down from only yearly to daily, weekly, and monthly. This has allowed me to leave each day experiencing a sense of achievement. And therefore higher levels of satisfaction and happiness.
Better late than never! Rehearsal season has started and with a small delay here are my power rankings for Semi final 2. Ps: I haven't changed a bit on my comments, the only thing that has changed are the available odds that have more value for the countries that have already made their first rehearsal. 1. Netherlands Televoting: 1 - Juries: 1 Odds: Q 1.03 (exchange market), Q:1.01 -NQ: 15.00 (betting site) Semi Winner: 2.24 (exchange) - 2.20 (betting site) Will qualify because... It is the big favorite to win the whole thing. It is the big favorite to win the whole thing... One more time, it is the favorite to win the whole thing! Will not qualify because... Martians invade planet earth and Eurovision is postponed... Personal opinion: The one to beat and this is the only reason i'm waiting for the rehearsal! Netherlands has to screw their staging big time to lose the win! And maybe keep it a little bit low. Stay humble and take it step by step. 2. Russia Televoting: 2 - Juries: 4 Odds: Q 1.03 (exchange market), Q:1.02 -NQ: 12.00 (betting site) Semi Winner: 4.50 (exchange) - 4.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... It's Russia and non qualifications happen once every 25 years. Televoting and allies will do their job. Will not qualify because... Russia non qualification was the perfect storm of failed politics and pr. This is not the case this year. Personal opinion: It's the song that everybody or almost everybody respects a bit too much. Can go anywhere between 2-8. Qualitywise i wouldn't place it in Top-10 but we are talking about Russia so 5-8 is where it should finish, always talking about the final. 3. Malta Televoting: 6 - Juries: 3 Odds: Q 1.23 (exchange market), Q:1.22 -NQ: 4.00 (betting site) Semi Winner: 23.00 (exchange) - 21.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... Malta is always doing a great job with the juries and this year can attract televoters too. It has lots of potential on stage. Will not qualify because... Malta might overdo it on staging and create a mess. We haven't heard yet the live version. Personal opinion: One of my dark horses. I have already placed a bet on its potential Top-10 finish on the final. 4. Sweden Televoting: 7 - Juries: 2 Odds: Q 1.02 (exchange market), Q:1.01 -NQ: 15.00 (betting site) Semi Winner: 9.60 (exchange) - 7.50 (betting site) Will qualify because... Swedish productions are always slick and can guarantee qualifications. There are at least 8 worst songs. Will not qualify because... Juries decide to mess with Sweden and don't give Sweden a single vote. Personal opinion: Sweden is always destined to be Top-10 in the final and usually Top-5 as well. 5. Azerbaijan Televoting: 3 - Juries: 7 Odds: Q 1.16 (exchange market), Q:1.11 -NQ: 6.00 (betting site) Semi Winner: 27.00 (exchange) - 34.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... It has the pimp slot of the 2nd semi and the last few years that was enough for the uplifting closing song to finish Top-3 in the Semi. (Belgium 2016, Israel 2017) Does stand out . Will not qualify because... Chingiz will lose his voice and will not be able to sing a word. Even then will have some chances to qualify. Personal opinion: Sailing to the final. 6. Switzerland Televoting: 5 - Juries: 5 Odds: Q 1.06 (exchange market), Q:1.03 -NQ: 11.00 (betting site) Semi Winner: 7.60 (exchange) - 5.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... It will probably be the radio hit of the year. It's time for Switzerland to qualify and have a Top-10 result after 2005! Will not qualify because... Dancers and Hani collapse on stage after hours of rehearsals Personal opinion: It will be a televoting magnet but still doubt about its jury appeal. Solid Top-10 though. 7. North Macedonia Televoting: 9 - Juries: 6 Odds: Q 1.41 (exchange market), Q:1.40 -NQ: 2.75 (betting site) Semi Winner: 25.00 (exchange) - 26.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... If not this year, then never! The song is an inspirational anthem and Tamara has an excellent voice. Jury friendly. Will not qualify because... Macedonia has the worst record on staging.They can destroy a masterpiece. Personal opinion: They are set for their best performance in Eurovision ever. Top-15 @2.06 is a value bet. 8. Norway Televoting: 4 - Juries: 11 Odds: Q 1.44 (exchange market), Q:1.36 -NQ: 3.00 (betting site) Semi Winner: 16.00 (exchange) - 26.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... Denmark did the same last year. Televoting magnet Will not qualify because... Remember Iceland 2016, Estonia 2017... Juries might find it kitch or outdated. Personal opinion: Not touching it for the moment but the main candidate for a shocker non qualifier. 9. Armenia Televoting: 8 - Juries: 8 Odds: Q 1.62 (exchange market), Q:1.44 -NQ: 2.62 (betting site) Semi Winner: 50.00 (exchange) - 34.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... Armenia has a good record and some allies on this semi. The song is contemporary. Will not qualify because... Running order is problem especially with all those favorites coming later. Might look too aggressive. Personal opinion: Armenia will be marginal either way. 10. Denmark Televoting: 10 - Juries: 9 Odds: Q 1.71 (exchange market), Q:1.57 -NQ: 2.25 (betting site) Semi Winner: 11.50 (exchange) - 67.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... Love is forever. A feel good song with a touch of nostalgia. Will not qualify because... Leonora is not smiling when singing and this is a problem. Personal opinion: Somehow i believe it will qualify. 11. Albania Televoting: 11 - Juries: 12 Odds: Q 2.30 (exchange market), Q:2.10 -NQ: 1.66 (betting site) Semi Winner: 50.00 (exchange) - 67.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... It is a very sentimental song with some allies on the semi. Will not qualify because... Staging won't be perfect and might be looking very flat Personal opinion: Not written off but has to be perfect on stage to make it and Albania does not have a good staging record. 12. Austria Televoting: 14 - Juries: 10 Odds: Q 5.50 (exchange market), Q:3.50 -NQ: 1.28 (betting site) Semi Winner: 140.00 (exchange) - 67.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... Even though it goes under the radar, there is some quality hidden in the song. Will not qualify because... Juries and televoters will find something better to vote for. Seems like it's too long Personal opinion: Definitely a fun bet for qualification just to be ok with my conscience and gut in case it qualifies. 13. Lithuania Televoting: 1 - Juries: 1 Odds: Q 3.25 (exchange market), Q:2.75 -NQ: 1.40 (betting site) Semi Winner: 190.00 (exchange) - 251.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... If he can run with lions, why not qualify as well? Ally friendly semi final. Will not qualify because... Back in the Roman empire times, lions were eating the christian martyrs in the arena. Lacks something that will lift the song. Personal opinion: Not 100% written off but almost there. 14. Romania Televoting: 13 - Juries: 14 Odds: Q 2.52 (exchange market), Q:2.37 -NQ: 1.53 (betting site) Semi Winner: 140.00 (exchange) - 201 (betting site) Will qualify because... Romania has a very good record on staging and making the most of its songs Enough allies on the semi. Will not qualify because... The song struggled on its own national final. Not a typical balkan song. Personal opinion: Romania should always be respected and can find the points to qualify but it is an uphill for them. 15. Latvia Televoting: 16 - Juries: 13 Odds: Q 7.40 (exchange market), Q:6.00 -NQ: 1.11 (betting site) Semi Winner: 190.00 (exchange) - 251.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... We might not understand it consciously, but the song is hypnotizing the audience and sends subconscious messages to vote for it. Will not qualify because... It seems like it's on a loop for ever. Not even juries will be able to save it! Personal opinion: Does not stand a chance. 16. Moldova Televoting: 15 - Juries: 16 Odds: Q 3.65 (exchange market), Q:2.75 -NQ: 1.40 (betting site) Semi Winner: 190.00 (exchange) - 67.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... Televoters will use the song as an anthem against Brexit. A last call for UK to remain in EU! Will not qualify because... This is so cliche that is almost a parody. And videoclip enforces that point. Personal opinion: Moldova Won't Stay for the final this year. 17. Ireland Televoting: 17 - Juries: 18 Odds: Q 8.20 (exchange market), Q:6.50 -NQ: 1.10 (betting site) Semi Winner: 75.00 (exchange) - 101.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... 7 other songs will be worse on stage and with vocal difficulties. Will not qualify because... You can't qualify to the final with an amateurish song that doesn't even sound original Personal opinion: Nothing to see here! Move on. 18. Croatia Televoting: 18 - Juries: 17 Odds: Q 6.40 (exchange market), Q:5.00 -NQ: 1.14 (betting site) Semi Winner: 140.00 (exchange) - 201.00 (betting site) Will qualify because... The angels up there will vote to show their solidarity to Roko. Will not qualify because... Nothing in its favour. Croatia has lost its mojo the last decade. Personal opinion: Avoiding bottom -3 will be a success! Will try to post tomorrow my resume of the first rehearsals and my first tips for this year.The posts will be coming on a more regular basis from now on. Let me know your thoughts and opinions. For more comments and regular communication my twitter account is https://twitter.com/eurovisionbets Stay tunned!
[UK Politics] A giant post on the policies/promises the three main parties are campaigning for.
I hope this thread allows everyone in this thread contribute positively, with opinions and facts, and not be afraid to voice out something that this sub isn’t too favourable on. I have asked the mods to remove votes for comments to allow discussion and not get the hive mind to start upvoting/downvoting whenever something is set.
Warning this is going to be a big, meaty, thread entailing a lot of points, some not included because of how long it is – so if you have no patience to read, don’t voice your opinion just because you feel like contributing.
*I was trying to write a basic view in how our democracy works but I realised it was too complicated to add it as an addition to what is going to be a hefty piece already so I compromised. I might make a separate thread for how things work within our democracy but I think it might be too much for a sub dedicated to economic thought and theories.
Also do note my main sources are the parties individual manifestos and the BBC, I choose the BBC over other new sites because I think it takes the most unbiased position it can for all three parties. And in regards to some of the vagueness of policies, it's either because it's vague on purpose as I have found nothing concrete to add onto or they have not yet released information to the public. And yes, I didn't have the time to perfectly align positions that are similar or different in a side by side comparison, I will fix this in the coming days but for now I wanted to make sure everything important was included.
(Let me just say how annoying it is to go through countless pages of just bullshit, nothing but pandering and pointing fingers and rarely highlighting a god damn policy… 80-120 pages of this urghhhh)
Click above to see how much revenue they predict they’ll get from these changes.
Click above to see how muc-oh? They don’t have any of the calculations for the public to see their policy effects? How strange, I wonder why...
Well would you look at that, Lib Dems also put their costs up for all the pledges they made.
Bring the railways back into public ownership as franchises expire
Increase the personal allowance to £12,500 and the higher rate to £50,000 by 2020
£100bn package of additional infrastructure investment
Regain control of energy supply networks through the alteration of operator license conditions, and transition to a publicly owned, decentralised energy system
Keep pledge to ensure residents can veto high increases in council tax via a referendum
Boost the economy with a major programme of capital investment
Replace water system with a network of regional publicly-owned water companies
Improve HMRC's capabilities to clamp down on smuggling, including improving policing of borders as UK leaves EU
Eliminate the deficit on day-to-day spending by 2020 to control the national debt, and then borrowing only to invest
Reverse the privatisation of Royal Mail "at the earliest opportunity"
Reduce online VAT fraud
Install hyperfast, fibre-optic broadband across the UK
Create at least one publicly-owned energy company in every region of the UK, with public control of the transmission and distribution grids.
Spend more on research and development
Additional funding to bring more private investment into renewable energy
Income tax rate 45p on earnings of £80,000 and above
Ensure industry and businesses have access to reliable, cheap and clean power
Raise employee national insurance threshold to the income tax threshold, while protecting low earners' ability to accrue pension and benefit entitlements
Income tax rate of 50p to be reintroduced on earnings above £123,000
Deliver road, rail, airports and broadband that businesses need.
Ensure those with the highest incomes and wealth are making a fair contribution
Boost wages of 5.7m people earning less than minimum wage to £10 an hour by 2020
Increase the amount levied on firms employing migrant workers
Reverse cuts to corporation tax from 20% to 17%, capital gains tax, marriage allowance
Create a National Transformation Fund that will invest £250bn over 10 years in upgrading the economy
Listed companies will have to publish ratio of executive pay to broader UK workforce pay
Raise inheritance tax threshold
Deliver universal superfast broadband availability by 2022
Maintain pledge to cut corporation tax to 17% by 2020
Action on corporate tax evasion and avoidance
A National Investment Bank as part of a plan to provide £250bn of lending power over the next decade for infrastructure
Reform business rates, with more frequent revaluations
Reforming corporation tax to develop a system that benefits the smallest
Scrap quarterly reporting for businesses with a turnover of under £85,000.
Simplify the tax system
Expand the activities of the state-owned British Business Bank
Corporation tax to increase: (21% 2018-2019)(24% 2019-2020)(26% 2020-2021)
Regulate more efficiently, saving £9bn through the Red Tape Challenge and the One-In-Two-Out Rule
Create a new 'start-up allowance' for new businesses
Corporation tax for profits below £300,000: (20% 2018-2019)(21% 2019-2021) *For some reason someone didn’t check their numbers and apparently 2019-2020 is unknown – which I assume it means that it applies to the second increase rate.
Legislate for tougher regulation of tax advisory firms
Review business rates
An end to zero-hours contracts to guarantee workers a "number of hours each week"
Update the rules that govern mergers and takeovers
Protect the science budget, including the recent £2bn increase, by raising it at least in line with inflation
‘Balancing the Books’
Ensure foreign ownership of companies controlling important infrastructure does not undermine British security or essential services
Stamp out abuse of zero-hours contracts
Meet the OECD target of 3% of GDP spent on R&D by 2030
Legislate to make executive pay packages subject to strict annual votes by shareholders
Encourage employers to promote employee ownership
Separation of investment and retail banking
Consider a ban on companies which cold call people to encourage them to make false personal injury claims
Champion the Northern Powerhouse and Midlands Engine initiatives
Breaking up RBS and create local public banks.
Reduce insurance costs by "cracking down on exaggerated and fraudulent" whiplash claims.
40% of board members being women in FTSE 350 companies.
Introduce an Excessive Pay Levy on companies with staff on very high pay *The Excessive Pay Levy is a payroll tax, it basically charges employers for paying exceptionally high rates to individuals.
Switching from RPI to CPI indexation
Develop a version similar to the Australian system of binding arbitration and fines for persistent late-payers for the private and public sectors.
Introduce four extra public holidays each year to mark national patron saints' days
Increase the National Living Wage to 60% of median earnings by 2020
Encourage the creation and widespread adoption of a ‘good employer’ kitemark covering areas such as paying a living wage, avoiding unpaid internships and using name-blind recruitment to make it easier for customers and investors to exercise choice and influence.
Maximum pay ratios of 20:1 to be rolled out in public sector
Ensure people working in the 'gig' economy are properly protected
Establish an independent review to consult on how to set a genuine Living Wage across all sectors. We will pay this Living Wage in all central government departments and their agencies, and encourage other public sector employers to do likewise.
Ban unpaid internships
Change the law to ensure listed companies nominate a director from the workforce, create a formal employee advisory council or assign specific responsibility for employee representation to a designated non-executive director
Extend transparency requirements on larger employers to include publishing the number of people paid less than the Living Wage and the ratio between top and median pay.
"Clamp down on bogus self-employment" and extend rights of employees to all workers - including shared parental pay
Introduce a right for employees to request information relating to the future direction of the company.
Modernise employment rights to make them fit for the age of the ‘gig’ economy, looking to build on the forthcoming Taylor Report
Guarantee trade unions a right to access workplaces
Strengthen enforcement of employment rights, including by bringing together relevant enforcement agencies and scrapping employment tribunal fees.
End the public sector pay cap
Strengthen worker participation in decision-making, including staff representation on remuneration committees, and the right for employees of a listed company to be represented on the board. We will change company law to permit a German-style two-tier board structure to include employees.
Repeal the Trade Union Act and roll out sectoral collective bargaining, whereby industries can negotiate agreement as a whole
Reform fiduciary duty and company purpose rules to ensure that other considerations, such as employee welfare, environmental standards, community benefit and ethical practice can be fully included in decisions made by directors and fund managers.
Enforce all workers' rights to trade union representation at work
Reduce the reporting requirement for disclosure of shareholdings to 1% in order to increase transparency over who owns stakes in the biggest companies.
Use public spending power to drive up standards, including only awarding public contracts to companies which recognise trade unions
Require binding and public votes of board members on executive pay policies.
Give all workers equal rights from day one, whether part-time or full-time, temporary or permanent
Shifting the burden of proof, so the law assumes a worker is an employee unless the employer can prove otherwise.
Cuts to bereavement support payment will be scrapped, as will the bedroom tax and the "punitive sanctions regime"
Scrapping the triple-lock on the state pension after 2020, replacing it with a "double lock", rising with earnings or inflation - but no longer 2.5%
Maintain the 'triple lock' of increasing the state pension each year.
Reinstate housing benefit for under-21s
Means test winter fuel payments to pensioners
Withdraw eligibility for the Winter Fuel Payment from pensioners who pay tax at the higher rate (40%).
Guarantee state pension triple lock, as well as the winter fuel allowance and free bus passes
Tighten the rules against pension abuse and increase punishment for those caught mismanaging pension schemes
We will retain the free bus pass for all pensioners
"Rejects" proposal to increase state pension age further
Give the pensions regulator powers to issue punitive fines for those found to have wilfully left a pension scheme under-resourced and if necessary, powers similar to those held by the Insolvency Service to disqualify relevant company directors
Introducing a single rate of tax relief for pensions, which would be designed to be simpler and fairer and would be set more generously than the current 20% basic rate relief
A commitment to "protect the pensions of UK citizens living overseas in the EU or further afield".
Consider new criminal offence for company directors who put at risk the ability of a pension scheme to meet its obligations.
30 hours free childcare to be extended to two-year-olds and "some" to one-year-olds
Introduce a "breathing space" scheme to help those in serious debt be protected from further interest, charges and enforcement action for up to six weeks.
Extend free childcare to all two-year-olds and to the children of working families from the end of paid parental leave
An end to the so-called "rape clause" - part of the policy of restricting child tax credits to the first two children in a family. It means mothers who have a third child as a result of rape can be exempted, but would have to provide evidence in order to do so
An additional month's paid paternity leave
A review into reforming council tax and business rates, in favour of options such as a land value tax
Introduce a new Young Person's Bus Discount Card for 16-21 year olds, giving a two-thirds discount on bus travel
A national review of local pubs to examine the causes for their large-scale demise, as well as establishing a joint taskforce that will consider future sustainability.
30 hours' free childcare a week for all parents in England with children aged from two to four years
Take 13,000 children out of poverty by letting both parents earn before their Universal Credit is cut
Reverse cuts to work allowances in universal credit and housing benefit for 18-21 year olds - increase jobseeker's allowance and universal credit for 18-24
Uprate working-age benefits at least in line with inflation
Abandon the two-child policy on family benefits and abolish the 'rape clause'
Reverse cuts to employment support allowance to those in the work-related activity group
Increase local housing allowance (LHA) in line with average rents in an area
Scrap the 'bedroom tax' and the work capability assessment
Ensure that 60% of the UK's energy comes from zero-carbon or renewable sources by 2030
UK should have the lowest energy costs in Europe, both for households and businesses
Ensure that four million properties receive insulation retrofits by 2022, prioritising fuel-poor households
A ban on fracking
Establish an industrial energy efficiency scheme to help large companies install measures to cut their energy use and their bills
Prevent 40,000 deaths a year with Air Quality Plan to reduce air pollution
Nuclear power "will continue to be part of the UK energy supply"
Smart meters offered to every household and business by the end of 2020
Ensure British farming remains competitive
Introduce an immediate emergency energy price cap to ensure the average dual fuel household energy bill remains below £1,000 per year
Make it easier to switch energy providers and introduce a "safeguard tariff cap"
A diesel scrappage scheme, and a ban on the sale of diesel cars and small vans in the UK by 2025
Maintaining access to the EU's internal energy market and retaining access to nuclear research programme Euratom will be a priority in Brexit negotiations.
Independent review into the cost of energy to ensure UK energy costs are as low as possible, while ensuring a reliable supply and meeting 2050 carbon reduction objective
Extend ultra-low-emission zones to 10 more towns and cities
Against more large-scale onshore wind power for England, but maintain position as a global leader in offshore wind and development of wind projects in the remote islands of Scotland, where they directly benefit local communities
Run all private hire vehicles and diesel buses licensed to operate in urban areas on ultra-low-emission or zero-emission fuels within five years
Develop the shale industry in Britain
Pass a Zero-Carbon Britain Act to set targets to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2040 and to zero by 2050
Non-fracking drilling treated as permitted development
Aim to generate 60% of electricity from renewables by 2030
Set up a new shale environmental regulator
Support investment in energy storage, smart grid technology, hydrogen technologies, offshore wind, and tidal power
Change proposed shale wealth fund so greater percentage of tax revenues from shale gas directly benefit the communities that host the extraction sites.
Establish a £2bn flood-prevention fund
Increase the amount of accessible green space
Suspend the use of neonicotinoids until proven that their use in agriculture does not harm bees or other pollinators
Increase maximum sentence for animal cruelty from six months to five years, and a ban on caged hens
Clamp down on illegal pet imports
Reform agricultural subsidies
Pass a Zero-Waste Act
£2bn to ensure the provision of high-speed broadband across the rural UK
£2bn Rural Services Fund to co-locate council offices, post offices, children's centres, libraries and visiting healthcare professionals.
Insomnia rambling, been up 60+ hours, mind is like a drunk, I have no shame letting it out. Chronic insomnia, 4 years, medications, jobs, causes, intp overdose (am i intp?) meditation, relationships, trauma, children, the state, autism friendly/encouraged to read, incels welcome, mods r ok doke
Rare personal story, just one really you can pass I'm just a man trying to communicate about insomnia, life, suffering, personal ups/downs, tails for people who might need them, connection for people who needed it, and for a personal win, finally contributing to (Ii really dislike reddit for many reasons, but engaging for personal growth and not autismo (colloquial, majority of internet are socially low ranked males with humour, obsessions and a high affinity for Autistic spectrum disorder not other specified. Psychiatric diagnosed (by Britians appaling but gratefully extisting mental health treatmen.. (alarm went off, trying to get up at same time every day. I cheat a bit by just staying awake for 3 days at a time but even though treatment is not a joke, I'm one who laughs like a ape on lsd when psychiatrists and mental health staff stiff try to get me to have "good sleeping habits" despite being "uncompliant" due to "choise", I just don't try hard enough to stick to good sleeping habits, tried it so many times but I'm out of will power right now. Look I've been up for 3 days this week, 3 days last, average 3 hours of sleep when I can or even just 1. What the fuck is good sleeping habits worth when they are the obvious alternative to prescribe when you "just aint suffering enough to get dem spicy benzo sleepy meds" I'm looking a this screen with double vision, i got to close one eye to read. Thinking of getting a butt vibrater recently. My condition means my self-esteem and confidence are so low, with high severe anxiety and mood disorder and brain that thinks sleep it a fucking drug that you don't want to get to tolerant to or get iwthdrawals, like waking up feeling every cell in your body alive. I mean I enjoy walking around with my cells heated and stressed, confused and wants a shag maybe after being awake 70 hours with its friendly associate "sleep-deprived mental state", a natural aphrodisiac, social lubricant, sure to win any birds approval if it weren't for them pesky "sleep" things other people do. I mean I enjoyed it when younger, spent a lot of time alone in bed for number of reasons, ending up having semi-buddhist self-realisations like controlling dreams, manually waking up from dreams (arguable), surviving parents with 1) No skill to attend to emotional struggles as men as supposed to be strong for women like my mom and sister, his mom, his sisters, heck the fucking Queen and Tina Turner all had this "odd, different,chaotic, self-doubting, paranoid, avoidant, terrifying, beautiful and blissful side to them. Women always confused me as I talked to them like men but apparently thats being weird or retarded. I've learned with therapy, time, medication, lsd, weed, the internet, proffessor Nutt,Eckhart Tolle, Dr Gaba Mate, Jordan Peterson and Avoidant Personality Disorder, GAD, dysthymic, chronic insomniac with a fortunate outlook on life, just, at , this, moment. Tomorrow I'll be wishing to be friends with the birds in the park again and I'm not ready to settle my social status ego as crazy park man, juicy lucy, Red Bull subversional experiment no#19387616, a sad man with troublesome problems (look at him hes look at nature lol! That's only for creeps, Perv!). Joking, I make jokes since my dad was someone who could break the moment of a family tragedy with laughter from a source I could only assume comes from a frequency (or just nothingness, k, I've got Tinnitus and a keen ear for loud noises and things I can't make sure that I've not went psychotic. of infront of everyone by saying "ocial attempt to communicate for no other conscious reason than engaging with people again, the internet is that beast that can social relieve you or repeat traumatic patterns from the past, activating your stored memories (without conscious realisation, you thought about it too much in the past and as an insomniac I can't remember to brush my teeth everynight! How could I be so gross? Should I judge, shame myself? When was I last shamed for being gross and how did it feel? Maybe in school group of friends, your parents giving you responsibilities tp help you with life, or yet another bried honest care for their son that isn't just to keep shame away from the family ( Insomniacs been through too much pain not to have awakened spit special overpriced sleep relaxing tea our. How can one human who gets no sleep become so mentally ill but ingenious in regards to treating a health condition regarded as simply avoidable and choice driven, to the unfair tragedy of our condition, which most others in my experience equate with a mild headache in the morning solved by [societal programmed respone, evidence biased on selection, funding and appeal to societies psychological fear of past government (and many current) axioms of control, deceit and subversion, their true interest in human life gone at the latest realising politics, choas, order corruption and desperation are recipies for levels of hell greater than missing the latest episode of the Simpsons, sports, gossip, meme everyone experienced while you wondered if being a highly educated cog in the machine of an orchestrated dance of emotional negativity designed for civilisations compulsive need for more rather than a fundemental return to the child you were before you were forced into dynamics that danaged your health and daren't stir the boat... or else... I startle from sleep as I'm falling asleep, nervous system rapidly jumps gears, relaxing takes ages, maybe not enough time to return to base before your next plight. I feel open (very rare, sorta weed helps! This isn't a weed dominant post its alright MMrs threatened person, reactionary or trying to value and burden civilisations psychological and emotional load (spiritual too, but nm that)) to keep its unimaginable complexity. Experiantial and high school graduate level insight on some Drugs, Psychonaut, Insomnia, Depression, anxiety, severe, chronic, treatment resistance, shame, spiral of despair, loniliness (yash I'm gotta say sexually at least. Good looking genes but brain rerouted and damaged by cross generational traum, genetic causes, I'll clean my flat (Or half at least so main room, toilet, hall, bedroom presentable. Shove every fucking thing in buckets and amazon boxes in their reminded of the times, future (Very pessimistic about future, cyberpunk, dystopia, mad max, fallout, fifa 11 (ahh my last of those shitty buy every year games, still... if I had friends that played I'd pay it for the experience, even battlefield 1943 that shitty plastation store game with faint reminders of the glory of old battlefield games (all best personal game memories come from games that communities are toxic, then you start walking around the residence silently looking at everything like god is making everything a fag that should just not exist pls. I'm human and teammate abuse/rejection is primordial and experience induced trauma for me, but I'm not revealing much about my true ills for redditors to put their finger in the proverbial wound and swiggle it around just for shits, because as I have come to learn, and you may be dubios or straight disagree, humans have became a sick species, unaware of its own tragedies running from cognitive torture, just for a few seconds, like an addict to finding peace (chaos and order are inseparable and peace is a state of no mind attained by very few in our generations), and it's no wonder... We come from thousands of years of extreme suffering and strength. I'll stop talking Jordan Peterson and/or Eckhart Tolle (if you have suffered you have a very low risk and high reward just to research and contemplate their teachings) to stop focusing on aggresive thougts through no fault of their own. No one really, deeply wants to endure more suffering that they already have, and I'm guilty of bullying a few kids to up my social status when the moment presented its like a cat pouncing if not interested) and their unique moments of pleasure from spotting enemy boats, dolphin diving and nades spammin. Got myself some, benzos, some weed,tobacco, and tasty treats. Some alcohol, yet still awake for 3 days last week with anything but an microsleep when I lost awareness in dizziness for a sec. Trying to drag they buses and trucks the "strongmen" tv show do in the mind. Anyone else feel like that analogy for your brain and ego to admire a little self-wortj? Not even a little huh, mind to busy. Making mistakes at work due to sleep deficit in a chicken fast food retailer Average 3 hour sleep including before theI got the Sat and weeks/months/years before it (avg mind, but a very static sleep chart on my phone so the GP, mental health staff and Docs, nurses and Psychs/therapits xx After those days awake, last weekend, I Drank 2 botlles of white trying to knock myself out to sleep on day 2/3 but not too harsh, Didn't work and sobering up from "heavy" alcohol binge to see the sun in the dawn is Achy and bland. Paracetamol, Caffeine, Neurofen help me start my new job a months few monthsto sleep related disorders... Not putting the counter for fried chicken your just made and dropped in the fried (an automatic rare mistake). Followed by breading chicken incorrectly. tried plus ssris ish types but not enough it seems. Biggest effect for managing the mental illness were srris (would have went in normal day life,worse under stress like work crazy anxiety knife in hands nuts)was vaping weed to treat my anxiety/mood (which yes if you use low or mix with tobacco won't zonk you. Diet is a riot 5 stones in 3 years, 19 bmi unhealthily thin to borderly obese at 29. We don't get the care we need and deserve as truely suffering a horrendlously life alterating condition. How has people with severe chronic insomnia i.e 3 hours a night average. Went to NHS psychiatrist and got told "your body will fall asleep when it needs to". I almost laughed out loud. My type is getting hypnic jerks/myclonus as relaxing and falling asleep, waking after what 1 hour? Expected to treat my Anxiety and Depression and all this shit through behavioural models which had failed through trial and error. Leaning over to the dark net now getting to grips with benzos and their addictive tendensies. Modafinil and Pregabalin have been the most important off the net, and Phenibut. Tianeptine sulphate not useful enough although a nice high with withdrawal worse that opiates and tianeptine is an antipressants AND opiate. I've read stuff about benos. Their suffering withdrawals worse than any drug, yes even heroin and crack. Just tried to get a little bit of sleep before long work hours in a kitchen by popping a cheap pill. Still judging their use/wprtj pver negatives, not spent much in w/ds and chronic use/abuse for 2 weeks now. Got some LSD too, Class A I know but I'm not woried overworked police officers will care, and if they do the cost wouls sick trash for them, and I use it for therapy and mental health issues. hmm. no invites copers. Note; Just got back from the shop and dude, I was having so many thought patterns I jump around the place like a asslym seeker in EU cpuntries. (are these attempted jokes banned? Soz if are pls no perma. Probably would want to be a comedian in the future yikes comedy so bland literally women comedians would just end up attacking each other and then jump on a political party. I love women. I love men. I love all. LSD and cannabis let me see women as equals and against the bigger religions views etc. I used LSD to try treat my insomnia and mental conditions, it showed me something I couldn't describe, only at 50uq for me it was potent maybe im sensitive. I seem morphin which freaked me haha but next time maybe ill have more introspection before jumping for some xanax and burying my head in my pillow like a huffy 8 year old trying to manage the terror this lsd can cause. Perception changes are fucking enormous people. I took weed and realised "Comedians are usually sad I wonder what they do ! " I searched Jum Carrey, and found Eckhart Tolle. I disagree that you can just be in the present moment like a choice, I think he is over optimistic in our "pain bodies" momentum it carries through the collective unconscious like that first time you fire your bay blade into that shitty pastic arena thing. I'm not going to fix this post I'd usually just delete this shit now but hey may some Pepega autismo incel tragic son of a bitch like me will enjoy this sht. Also reading with weed might help. Lsd and reading is.... I wouldnt like to do it yet anyway. Lsd made me love everyone and further forgive women in my life who cause me pain like my mother and other relations. We are all one. Naw, Im no psychotic im just 3 days sleep deprived trying to extrapolate a shit tonne of ideas from my head and a general low self esteem in my writing pride because its anonymous anyway I'll just delete it if its faggy (no offense just the happy faggy as in, your a fag because ur not giving that old women your seat. Not the gay. Also I was probably internalised homophobic before lsd, but now im like who gives a shit Also that knife shit about going nuts thats no worry no call the popo if i was gonna kill someone id of killed my mother when i was 11/12. What the fuck must she have done to me, I remember the verbal, emotional, psychological abuse but to want kill her the damage she was doing to me might have been worse than some physical kinds. Fuck her. But I forgive her. Her intention was never to harm me, psychopaths are very low percentage chance, and categorised as illness too and even psychopaths can restrain themselves just like a horny incel that wants to rape. Im not afraid to talk about this sht cus I talked to many mental health professional and the general concensus is 90% of people think completely fucked up things but, anyway, mmrs autismo that read this whole thing. If ur a hot grill message me, I'm not going to get catfished im fairly paranoid and extensively edgy as it is, and tbh, if a girl added me on the internet I'd probably block them just like on league of legends because my mind and emotions goes fucking nuts. What to say? Am I being cool? Is she into me? Am I thinking to much? Yes, ok. Focus on breath. I'm cold. Oh dude if this girl is into me it be so hot. Shit im fantasing about a girl who just wants to playt a game with me im so fucking sick. She made a joke with a kiss mark, is she flirting? Do I make a move? Shit shit shit. Fuck this get blocked noob hehe i play teemo jungle next 20 games fucking reeeeeeee. I'm ok lads. Ok that one really concerned person reading to see if I say something anymore fucked up, who do you think you are dealing with here? If you draw are on diaviant art or something i l ike that sht hit me up. 3 days Ive been up dude. Have to buy my own etizolam, will knock me out whenever I use it thankfully but without it its just awful. Being up for more than 3 days without sleep is a drunken, stumbling, slurring, brain farting, -20IQ, but I probably more chance of getting a grill like this than with 9000 hours sleep how sad. Talking about girls again fucking get out of me man I know ying and yang are cool and all but, shit man, evolution make it hard - literally - to not think about women when a depressed, alone, never gf, over school age, mentally ill, internet diagnoso autismato certified by Dr Nick! Childless, relationshipless, my therapist says this is actually a good thing for me because id be taking on others problames but (fuck if reddit has a character counter im going to be pissed I dont want to edit this crap im spewing out intuitive Kappa all over the place. So right, no gf or kids, die alone etc a lot of western scariest thing. But you know, with meditation and Buddhism (not stricktly tied to the institutional buddhism) you can find peace within yourself. I dont want to be 50 getting boners when I go outside to get a fucking apple. Jesus christ, it slike im 14, im on high dosage ssri paroxetine kills sex drive, still get fucking boners reeeeeee. cant fucking use them feelsbadman. would you ever become gay in a situation like this just for comfort and sexual pleasures etc? Im like 97% straight just and prostate massage froma cock would be nice based on my own experiment but the smell is not a fucking cinderalla or jasmine its a fucking gragas or santa after running around the world delivering presents when his dog with the red nose is sick. Women smell so nice, heres a spicy story. I was living in halls up at a close uni to mine, and everyone was out on break, so I got super horny tried to enter a girls room and holy sht... the door was open. I walk around hoping to find a nice dildo but I find out something disappointing, its a pair of panties absolutely drenched in female pheremones. Fuck, im not gay. Gay would be so easier dude i hate women cus of my mom and sister. Trans is just like, its hot porn but , i mean yeah id like to do it irl if she is hot but.... Im not fucking C9 Sneaky that dude makes me uncomfortable he makes me question fucking eternity and space and everything when he dresses like a cute girl and I want to fucking judge him since i got bullied at school and my parents would judge me but damn id probably fuck him. there it is, Like it may feel nice but the smell of guy, sweat, semen, dude, im a guy and that shit just aint pleasant or... sexually satisfying. Anyway insomnia fucks people up man. I see shadows at corners of eyes past 40 hours awake. I dont give a fuck about that shadow people sht its too drama and unstimulating for me. Ive seen fucking hallucinations. I downed this liquid once at a party at uni campus to impress a girl, no idea what was in it, fucking burned my nose drank 500 ml of spirit could have died but yolo haha xd. I spent time in college observing !alphas! and they just reckless smash shit up fucking retarded johnny bravo motherfuckers, Im more of a Tyler Durden myself. Watched that film on lsd the other day, it was great until I seen how it was basically Hollywood dictating what is really from fantasy, trying to pull you in, tell you what is real isnt, pulls you in again. fuck that shit man. That dude has insomnia in fight club. I love that sht. Its sort of an ego identity. Im meditating frequently when I can, obviously not right now shit went down at work didnt want to get pushed around like bullies did in high school fuck sake lose a job 10 years after high school still quit a damn good job, because of the kitchen staff were fucking amazing. The stories, the lifestyle, cant fucking remember their names on Facebook and my old phone broke with their numbers.... so mad. So what, I cant remember names, dont judge me. I dont know why i cant remember names. A name is like, identity. Human 1, Human 2. Mother, father. Baby, Adult. McDonalds, Burger King. Trump, one sec im gonna hit some weed not hit in like 9 hours dude./ Nah im not taking a hit yet, want to wait till im queuing up in league with my teemo jungle sheeeet weed dude hahah so cool ahaha. Actually only tried at 25, after everything else failed. and it showed me the spiritual side of life with its perception changes. It fucking saved my life. I fucks with me,.. She, fucks with me. The downs, the paranoids, the anxiety, the weed hangovers, but damn. So what if people become lazy stoners and sit around... guess what, they wont. Sitting around is fucking BORING. As a depressed medically sick note autismo gibs not having my job anymore at kfc sucks ass. I miss it, but I dont miss any sort of letting some bitches and wanks verbally rub their nutsack on my face just to keep happy a bit. I need to find their names dude and get some one on one, the stories of others, not just boring college people. all the same shit, REAL people living at 48 working at fucking kfc in the kitchen. Now thats the guy I want to talk to. Women. If my dick never got hard for women, I'd probably like less of them. fair statement, would go both ways. I like their... emotions, fuck its hard to differentiate when your dick in your brain spazies out when you try think about a girl man im fucking neutring you dude nah im not chill my .... no, racism is... it can be funny if it isnt bullying, like joking amongst buddies. Taking the shit outta each other. Im watching some korean lol streamer called Rush, and he keeps calling americans fatty burger faces. Now thats funny, im uk and im shit teeth yellow and drink tea, but from scotland too so im a ginger FREEEEEEEEDDOOOOMMMMM intoxicated drunk Irish singing partners grandad. But women,, fuckkk. Guys are funnier dude, I laugh and joke so make dudes. Some women are out of this word funny, but they aint the comedians on tv they are real life Holemies. I added the girl my sister works with right, if thats you then go ahead message me btch but Im not going long term I do not believe in it humans are fleeting energy dancing between chaos and order and chaos and order cannot fucking stay together especially my parents man. I cant even remember them fighting but im so sure i used to cover my ears with my pillow to hear them stfu. I told my dad about my mums over abusive behaviour, he says stuff like western daddy dad, chin up, look after your mum she doesnt mean it, sticks and stones (I want to puke at that sht, id rather get my arm broken than this suffering of my soul if feels like im not alive or dead but again in the middle, suborbatory or some sht whatever that christmas thing is. I want some homies to talk to, and hollies. Im white so i dont get black culture too much i dont listen to rap music except nicki minaj she is best rapper. Anyway, Queen were a great band but Coldplay I fucking loved dude. Their first album, sends me away from my pains and merges with the pain of everyone feeling the same frequency of pain and says "its ok to feel this, we are here together, you are not alone, you can calm down your nervous system" where as my body now is like fuck you this is my nervous system bitch overclock this son of a gun lets go fucking nuts. Ofc this is the id that Frued refers to in his psychotherapy works, the id, subconscious and conscious. My central nervous system is like... fried man. Fucking might as well be a chicken at least id be tastier. Like wtf man i have to take an ssri, a newly invented drug to not kill myself? What would I have done 100 years ago? Fucking, I'd probably have killed myself or alcoholic. My mums Dad was alcoholic, died from liver alcohol damage. My mums brother was a heroin addict, died 6 months after his mum died (my mums mum, my gran, blood relative). My poor mum. My poor uncle. Heroin man, he got into weed at 12 and then into heroin just naw fuck society. I'm on a razors edge between the same fate. Tried Codeine I hate that warm euphorice hazy sht it reminds me of Breaking Bad scene floating and sht and hell naw I prefer benzos but that sht meant to be worse than heroin withdrawal. going to get off them soon when I get back into meditation. I tried self medicating in Novermber after I asked a Psychiatrist twice for help, twice 2 years ago, plenty of GPs. I respect benzos are dangerous, I havent withdrawn from any yet just some etizolam and vals to help that rollercoaster of xanax (never used) style ups and downs with th short half life. Met a guy on the bus the day before I quit KFC. was going to hospital with 30 vals for her. He said "I bet you think im just some annoying cunt hurry the fk up and stfu get out my way". I looked him dead in the eye (I was on a bit of Etiz tbh so that helped me not freak out) and said "I see everyone as the same". His face paused, eyes locked on me, expressionless. I wonder if anyone had ever told this man he is loved. He looked fucked up by drugs. Ive stopped teh description cus as I said internet is aplace of everyone and maybe drug kings reading this sht like yeah boy i got a new homie to smack up, so hell naw I want to work for Jessie Pinkman tho that crew was sound (Glasgowegian term: Sound = cool = No problemo = Love thy neighbour). Id watch that show again just the drama is fucking booorrrinnggg second time walters wife and my hatred for women man fuck me it gets toastie in my nervous system it wants to fucking flying of the face of the earth to fucking Neptune to cool down a bit. Dude im pretty sober now, this is just insomnia and my autismo mind. Im sorta high IQ, my mom says im pretty. My dad says im smart. My friend says im funny. Some girl says im so big, girls, thats a compliment we want to here man our fucking chimp brain implodes and we feel like Zues pounding the mother earth (my greek mythology sucks sorry if it sucks reference). I'd like to hug a girl, sure whatever sex is great but not without complications, id like to share silently, explore, meditate, just fucking be without wanting something all the timee. But where are these girls, and where the fuck is my self-esteem dude gimmie dat back dats mine bro. I feel my mom took my self-esteem, crushed my soul with her black heart and death vibes with her postnatal depression, furthter depression, chronic anxiety and just taking that shit out on your kids is shit. I got into trouble at school a lot, wait sht, talk about women again. boobs are nice, bagina is nice, butt nice, leg, feet, hand, neck, head, hair, only bit women i dont like i probably her poops and her brain. But thats not fair just a quick joke man, shes a man-eater look out boy here she comes. What the fuck did she do to me. I've always been shy, sensitive I think, but, just, crushed in confidence. I loved my dad so much I didnt want anything in my life to harm him. My mum..... she told me she bottle fed me cus breast feeding too sore, dont know significance but I understand. Again I forgive my mother for everything her childhood sounds shit, alcholic dad never home, emotionally abusive mom with .. having a fag lads. Dont smoke just during high stress cus i dont get addicted and confident i can quit, quit job at kfc cus bully managers, girls im a steal come get me. Actually dont im scared of you all i know the potential for girls to get into my emotional "heart" and wreck it ralph for funsies, well not funsies its fantasy acted out in reality unfortunately of suffering. Dude ive had dreams of cutting dead bodies up for art like on Dexter, necrophelia, stupid fucking freudian big fucking black trains cus i went on 4chan al last summer and always blacked pictures fuck that site its funny tho seen a random soldier steal a tank like on gta never for reported to national news dont think but was unreal. he was drunk he was just trollin bro, lighten up usa. fucking, soldiers. I wont say much. I dont know if the deep cia etc really care about da normie or da autismo internetster or just care about his/her paycheck cocaine and probably lighting up a jay. I mean how can a deep state person start a family, its suicicde dude. We all the same family. if earth blows up, we reconnect with the univerese. the tragedy of self-conscoius life ends. something else happens. If I have a family holy shit id love my kids so much it would hurt me, i might e ven suduko cus of current mental illness in future relapse, or wife is like my mom in which case i fucking take several lines of cocaine, go strippers, shit what else you do in gta, fucking dirt bike to top of mountain and jump off and glide, steal a plane with a horse with no name and 9/11 into home street to say what up to my mates. See I fucking, well, i didtched all my homies i grew up with. most of them got into hard drugs, my best mate is now blind, blinded by his gf smacking him with a phone into a coma. i fucking seen him in the indian shop the other day, i was in there with him. he didnt know i was there. I didnt talk to him. That cunt bullied the shit out of me when younger, maybe my mum fucked up but this guy took out my butt plug and shoved it somwhere nasty like... clintons pussie? yikes. dude politics is fucking something man, this timeline, putin, trump, brexit, shit is suck tho so much suffering. so so much. If I talk shit for 28000 words then come to this realisation then its worth to me man, its a shit truth tho. life is suffering.
on lsd, i felt for 30 mins at the peak of the trip in a place of no where. i didnt feel anything inside me, no soul etc.
~I was like "go get some water" and then the body was like "why dude" and so I just stood bent over in one position for 30 mins my legs in pain but again my brain say "im in pain bro quick gimme some luba luba from yo moma" but I just accepted it and stayed silent, still, present, eckhart tolle id take his dick. buddhas too i tihnk althought probably lot of shit going on in tibet with gangs and that sht he has to support or help i dont know. hey cia, mk ultra only read a little bit but you wanted to use them on soldiers in war like nam? cod world at wablack ops 1 story was fucking cool man mason the numbers reminded of mk ultra like shit. good story line. Im mentally ill so I could be getting sent 5g signals to fuck me up oh shit dont say it noo immmmmm gooinnggggggggg....... hitler? why are you in heaven? Like dude I know you had mother issues like me, you wanted to be artist and you werent good enoughs o shit dude, i seen ur paintings and they were good i thought, keep your head up. I know your dead and shit but we are all fucking one. Im no nazi, no isis, no anarchist, shit what am I. Awakened? Spiritually? Do girls dig that sht? Its a pretty painful experience like it aint pretty realising time is eternity and always now and everything else in mind is an illusion, perhaps consciousness itself. I mean as long as I get sex tho right. High give my bros... chap ... chap ... Are you Mr Blue? why yes and you are? Im mr going to round house kick you into your mirror cus you knocked my daughter up. wel sheet the condom just kill it man its no fun get abortion. Is abortion bad though, like really. I dont think so. I kill life everyday by being alive. organisms die in my bodies defence. whatever idc. Suicide though, like what the fuck. I mean im doing alright just now i suppose, cant complain (3000 word complaint btw)said to my therapist suicide should be allowed, its not fair on the patient.Why do people have to stay alive, there is nothing in meditation or in the state i felt in lsd that said life is a must. On that LSD dude, I tried to move but either my mind said or I realised "I dont have to mve" but I was like dude lets go lets take a piss man and my conscoiusness was like like "no, you watch this, shut up, learn, just, be". So I did that and I grew from it. being in pain and being alright? Pain an illusion? So many less medications. I want my brain back dude. Most people I was competing with in my classes went on to get degrees and are doctors, laywers, sceintists and Im fucking, worked in mcdonalds could keep it down, kfc twice nope, deliver china man food nope, help old women with their shits and food no that was too hard but most rewarding. cex was alright just bully manager was a bint although, w.e. I want to play teemo jungle man. I want to level 2/3/4 gank all lanes with red buff and smite, spam laugh, raise emote and mastery. I also want to say.Space. Everything. Emotions. People. Just breathe.. All we know for sure is our most ancient know and this is of breath, maybe. shit i need some meds or somethin getting bit dizzy. sht what is it.diazepam i think just 5mg should do.its only 10am//// what the fuck. I mean ill take 5mg of valium sure but kinda sucks seems like a sorta intense w.d. Pregabalin was interesting, good and bad. good it fucking works mate if you like Phenibut then this will give you some extra resilience that according to Jordan Peterson you would have if you didnt get shat on your whole like mentally. Mums job to raise childs mental. She should of protected me ebtter. Now I play childrens video game, over 6660 hours. 900$ down. free game, how did fiddle even lose. WTF is the toxicity in this game im feeling anxious, I used like 3mg etizolam like 10 hours ago so hey its probably that, i take so valium or some etiz or that drug clonazepam i got to stop spasms in my sleep. Dude meditation when you get into it is better than any drug. Its just getting past the point of using drugs to get by man. Fucking vision if fucking up man like i close my eyes open then room spins. Alcohol does that, maybe gaba drug, prob etiz couple hours to go for pregabalin, shit this sucks. dude i better not be illt or osme sht. i feel like sht, but since that lsd i well...,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, im fucking nodding dude. i had 3 cups coffe 2 modafinil. Fucking etizolam this is what i mean it can fuck u up 2 weeks use not even every day max dose 8mg a day. I got etiz for Insomnia! actually relevent! I kept going into work with no sleep staying up 30 hours + before start shift etc. 2 secs my face burning up dont run out of benzos kids. Cool took 5mg diazepam, you know dude if my post gets deleted ill be pissed, but at least if a mod can read ill will feel better, say something gay like "chin up bud" or "its ok man, Ill come over to your house and give u the giraffe, i know your not gay but you said butthole pleasure (gta vice city, radio right? Listen to gta radio now folks, playing the game tho is kinda, dude it pretty bad) Im fucking pissed at games nowadays man. Microtransactions and loots, fucking dlcs, season passes, give me a full fucking game like I used to get with the customisation built in and not all about graphics ok man? GTA4 story was great and the airport was so much fun on multiplayer, I watched DansGaming and Forsen on twitch.tv play gta4 again and as an adult and like 10 years old that sht was still releveant and entertaining as fk. really shows you with gta5. the fuck was that game dude. im driving around with sweet graphics jumping into army base to steal a jet, get out, get jumbo plain fly about, hey cool. The story tho? I like the white mafia guy aigh? He goes to see a therapist or something, probably court ordered right unlike myself tips Benadryl or some insomnia meme I dont want cringe shit Im from twitch chat 7 years running dude i know my shit never modded either i suck no ones dick but my own once just the tip it was aight just fleshy and warm. Oh dude I think that etizolam w.d is going away man. that sht was like getting into a pretty bad lsd trip. fucking vision darting around, like when your really, really REALLY drunk and your vision keeps fucking going up and down like yoyo and its funny as fuck but scary as hell. Yeh, that shit, bright lights sucked and headache. Only reason I got benzo as i was saying, and its Etizolam, was because of working. I have chronic insomnia lads/laddetes/oneness/future hot gamer gf who is turned on by my autism means wtf is wrong with her fucking run it sthe cia knock knock motha fucka I gonna wreck ur house and steal your lidl pc to find you bought a fucking dildo. Hmm. I wonder if sex toys in the uk especially will remain legal. Auto women are becoming a thing, they have to be banned, absolutely. Im fucking mi5.mi6 and my population dont need the drama and mindless stress and pain that keeps them confused and wagecucking to pay for the worlds shitty karma. I wanted to join raf man as pilot. dad got me a shitty laptop from work for peanuts (very cheap uk slang) and i went to game shop, 3 pc games for 10 pound jismed man. Theme hopsital, flight simulator 98, the sims. Throw in age of empires 2 man I back in the late 90s, friends still on, charlie sheen no melt down yet, no 9/11. I typed some sht man but need to tidy and smarten up a bit or some paramedic gonna come. I want a hooker man. I need some pussy. I dont need just really want on biological need level. constant incessant noise in my head (grab her by pussy) oh sht im definitely banned from reddit now no pls not back to 4chan and pol/r9k its fucking exhausting getting by all the shills and tribalism. On that, what the fuck are we all thinking. Immigration at level never seen. Total culture shift in 1 generation. Once white dudes stop going to football and get all tribal on peoples ass theres gonna be gangs popping up. I mean there already is drugs gangs from asia and rape/child sht from middle east north africa right? I dont know what to say about that. Dude insomnia is a killer illness literally. Look at my delerium, well most just excess mumbling autismo (no sure reddit is ok with calling anything stupid anything other than "stupid" which is double standard, stupid people arent stupid by choice, its discriminatory and we have a duty to look after stupid people). Some people think of masterrace of high IQ, I mean like, skt want 5 fakers, argentina want 11 messies even in goal that dude run up the post overhead kick from the bar to save penalty. I said i took 5mg valium right?hmm. I have been up for 3 days, typing like a true autismo right now. My mom even asked if I thought I might be autstic last year, I mean I understand her concern, but that fact she caused the majority of my psychological damage, well her, Chris, Dad wasn't perfect he got scary and sectarian and I want to see him actually, need to get my benzo right can be having fucking shitty lsd trip at 10am 8-9 hours after dropping about 4 mg etizolam, kindling perhaps. Phenibut is suchan awesome substance, Phenibut, Caffeine, (no order) Modafinil, and Pregabalin dude. I was meditating (just breath concentration focus meditation on breath no gomba stomp awoooa throat swallowing shit and while I noticed little to no changes over the month, when I stopped, dude I fucking felt psychotic the thoughts just coming in like whot he fuk you think you are my mother? who didnt respect my personal boundaries as a child treating me as a secondary human being rather than an actual person. Fuck man. Life. Its not her fault. She had her own trauma. Now her son is using benzos to try fucking manage mama mia! Anyway pregs was good to 450mg for a few weeks when i was meditation, my back started to like give up in strength and my body jolted away, this was super intrusive to my meditation and triggered me. I wanted to get back down to 300mg or 150mg but as soon as I started dropping the dosage my sleep went to shit and I already had insomniai so that was fucking fun jesus. Got etiz to make sure, twice a week , i can get some fucking sleep fo im not up for 80 hours working 3./4 shifts. Alas, feel kinda memory fucked after etiz and foggy, might be better just stayin up. Phenibut, coffee, modafinil, paracetamol, ibuprofen, propranolol. Great kit for you to have to do stuff when you get no sleep. Also working twice a week, Phenibut gains no tolerance used twice a week and no more vast majority of people. So you take that befoer you sleep and you wake up ready to go to work regardless of shit mood and sleep. Gonna smoke some, play some teemo jungle idk man,60-70 hours awake. Add me on reddit xxxx
S&P Futures Slide, Europe Jumps As Traders Beg For End To Turbulent Week
There is a sense of almost detached resignation amid trading desks as we enter the last trading day of a chaotic, volatile week that has whipsawed and stopped out virtually everyone after the Nasdaq saw the biggest intraday reversal since Thursday and pattern and momentum trading has become impossible amid one headline tape-bomb after another. After yesterday furious tumble and sharp, last hour rebound, US equity futures are once again lower expecting fresh developments in the Huawei CFO arrest and trade war saga while today's payroll report may redirect the Fed's tightening focus in wage growth comes in hotter than the 3.1% expected; at the same time European stocks have rebounded from their worst day in more than two years while Asian shares posted modest gains as investors sought to end a bruising week on a more upbeat note. While stock trading was far calmer than Thursday, signs of stress remained just below the surface as the dollar jumped, Treasuries rose and oil whipsawed amid fears Iran could scuttle today's OPEC deal. The MSCI All-Country World Index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was up 0.3% on the day, on track to end the week down 2%. After Europe's Stoxx 600 Index sharp drop on Thursday, which tumbled the most since the U.K. voted to leave the EU in 2016, Friday saw Europe's broadest index jump 1.2% as every sector rallied following the cautious trade in the Asia-Pac session and the rebound seen on Wall Street where the Dow clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. European sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in the tech sector as IT names bounce back from yesterday’s Huawei-driven slump. Technology stocks lead gains on Stoxx 600 Index, with the SX8P Index up as much as 2.3%, outperforming the 1.1% gain in the wider index; Nokia topped the sector index with a 5.9% advance in Helsinki after Thursday’s public holiday, having missed out on initial gains from rival Huawei’s troubles that earlier boosted Ericsson. Inderes said the arrest of Huawei CFO over potential violations of American sanctions on Iran will benefit Nokia and Ericsson, who are the main rivals of Huawei and ZTE. Similarly, Jefferies wrote in a note on Chinese networks that China may have to offer significant concessions to buy Huawei an “out of jail” card and reach a trade deal, with China’s tech subsidies and “buy local” policies potentially under attack. "For example, why would Nokia and Ericsson have only 20% share in China’s 4G market," analysts wrote. Meanwhile, energy names were volatile as the complex awaits further hints from the key OPEC+ meeting today. In terms of individual movers, Fresenius SE (-15.0%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the company cut medium-term guidance, citing lower profit expectations at its clinics unit Helios and medical arm Fresenius Medical Care (-7.8%). The news sent Fresenius BBB- rated bonds tumbling, renewing fears of a deluge of "fallen angels." On the flip side, Bpost (+7.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) are hovering near the top of the pan-Europe index amid broker upgrades. Earlier in the session, Japanese equities outperformed as most Asian gauges nudged higher. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan nudged up 0.2%, though that followed a 1.8 percent drubbing on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.8 percent. Chinese shares, which were up earlier in the day, slipped into negative territory with the blue chips off 0.1 percent.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 also started firmer but were last down 0.4 percent. Markets face a test from U.S. payrolls data later in the session amid speculation that the U.S. economy is heading for a tough patch after years of solid growth. Will the last employment report released this year (the December report comes out in early January) help markets to continue to form a base? The consensus for nonfarm payrolls today is for a 198k print, following the stronger-thanexpected 250k reading last month. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom which should be enough to keep the annual reading at +3.1% yoy while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. DB's economists are more or less in line with the consensus with a 200k forecast and also expect earnings to climb +0.3% mom, however that would be consistent with a small tick up in the annual rate to +3.17% and the fastest pace since April 2009. They also expect the current pace of job growth to push the unemployment rate down to 3.6% which would be the lowest since December 1969. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confused traders when late on Thursday, he emphasized the strength of the labor market, throwing a wrench into trader expectations the Fed is poised to pause tightening - arguably the catalyst for Thursday's market-closing ramp following a WSJ article which reported Fed officials were considering whether to signal a new wait-and-see mentality after a likely rate increase at their meeting in December. While Friday's market has stabilized, for many the recent gyrations are just too much. For Dennis Debusschere, head of portfolio strategy at Evercore ISI, there’s still far too much risk to wade back into a market this riven by volatility. “Overall still untradeable in our opinion, until we get more clarity on trade and we think it will pay to wait this out,” he wrote in a note to clients Thursday. “That being said, our desk is open for business if you’re feeling up to trading this backdrop.” Meanwhile, the big question is what happens next year: “The big question mark still is what’s going to happen in 2019” with the Fed, Omar Aguilar, CIO of equities and multi-asset strategies at Charles Schwab, told Bloomberg TV. “The jobs report could easily be the catalyst that will tell us a little more about what the path may be.” Expecting that a big slowdown is coming, interest rate futures rallied hard in massive volumes with the market now pricing in less than half a hike next year, compared to just a month ago when they had been betting on more than two increases. Treasuries extended their blistering rally, driving 10-year yields down to a three-month trough at 2.8260 percent, before last trading at 2.8863 percent. Yields on two-year notes fell a huge 10 basis points at one stage on Thursday and were last at 2.75 percent. Investors also steamrolled the yield curve to its flattest in over a decade, a trend that has historically presaged economic slowdowns and even recessions. The seismic shock spread far and wide. Yields on 10-year paper sank to the lowest in six months in Germany, almost 12 months in Canada and 16 months in Australia. Italian debt climbed as European bonds largely drifted. The greenback advanced against most of its Group-of-10 peers ahead of U.S. jobs data that are expected to show hiring slowed last month. The pound fell as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May was said to be weighing a plan to postpone the vote on her Brexit deal. In commodity markets, gold firmed to near a five-month peak as the dollar eased and the threat of higher interest rates waned. Spot gold stood 0.1 percent higher at $1,239.49 per ounce. Oil was less favored, however, falling further as OPEC delayed a decision on output cuts while awaiting support from non-OPEC heavyweight Russia. Brent futures fell 0.5 percent to $59.77 a barrel, while U.S. crude also lost half a percent to $51.19. Cryptocurrencies continued their collapse with fresh losses after U.S. regulators dashed hopes that a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund would appear before the end of this year. Market Snapshot
S&P500 futures down 0.4% to 2,680.00
STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 347.69
MXAP up 0.2% to 151.21
MXAPJ up 0.2% to 485.67
Nikkei up 0.8% to 21,678.68
Topix up 0.6% to 1,620.45
Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 26,063.76
Shanghai Composite up 0.03% to 2,605.89
Sensex up 0.9% to 35,631.53
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 5,681.49
Kospi up 0.3% to 2,075.76
German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.244%
Euro down 0.05% to $1.1368
Italian 10Y yield rose 13.9 bps to 2.835%
Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.46%
Brent futures up 0.2% to $60.16/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,239.70
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.88
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
The arrest of Huawei Technologies Co. Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou in Canada over potential violations of American sanctions on Iran has triggered a debate in China over whether to carry on with trade talks with the U.S. or link the two issues and retaliate; Meng will have a bail hearing Friday to determine whether she is a flight risk and should remain in detention during proceedings on extradition to the U.S.
Oil extended losses near $51 a barrel after OPEC entered a second day of talks in an attempt to draw up a deal to cut output. Iran sees no possibility of agreeing to reduce its output, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said Friday
Theresa May met with her top ministers in London on Thursday to discuss options of delaying the Dec. 11 Parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal to avoid a landslide defeat that would risk a major U.K. political crisis, according to a person familiar with the matter
EU leaders are poised to turn their next summit into a Brexit crisis meeting, but so far, it doesn’t look like they’re willing to offer her anything that could help to break the deadlock in the U.K. Parliament
Angela Merkel’s long exit from politics begins Friday when her party gathers in Hamburg to decide whether to appoint her chosen successor as its new leader or break with the legacy of her 13 years in charge of Germany
Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria has complained that he is the victim of one ambush after another as his future is called into question amid tensions with populist leaders over a spending spree to fund election policies, according to newspaper Il Giornale
Asian stocks saw cautious gains with the region getting an early tailwind after the sharp rebound on Wall St, where most majors inished lower albeit off worse levels as tech recovered and the DJIA clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) were both higher at the open but gradually pared some of the gains as the risk tone began to turn cautious heading into today’s key-risk NFP jobs data. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp (U/C) were indecisive amid further PBoC inaction in which it remained net neutral for a 5th consecutive week and with the upcoming Chinese trade data over the weekend adding to tentativeness, while pharmaceuticals were the worst hit due to concerns of price declines from the government’s centralized procurement program. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat amid a similar picture in T-note futures and although early selling pressure was seen in Japanese bonds alongside the strong open in stocks, prices later recovered as the risk appetite somewhat dissipated. Top Asian News - China’s FX Reserves Rose Despite Intervention, Outflow Signs - Hong Kong May Slip Into Recession in 2019, Deutsche Bank Warns - SoftBank Seeks to Assuage Investors on Pre-IPO Mobile Outage - Southeast Asia Reserves Recover a Bit in November as Rout Eases European equities extended on gains from the cash open (Eurostoxx 50 +1.2%) following the cautious trade in the Asia-Pac session and the rebound seen on Wall St where the Dow clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. European sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in the tech sector as IT names bounce back from yesterday’s Huawei-driven slump. Meanwhile, energy names are volatile (currently marginally underperforming) as the complex awaits further hints from the key OPEC+ meeting today. In terms of individual movers, Fresenius SE (-15.0%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the company cut medium-term guidance, citing lower profit expectations at its clinics unit Helios and medical arm Fresenius Medical Care (-7.8%). On the flip side, Bpost (+7.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) are hovering near the top of the pan-Europe index amid broker upgrades. Top European News
LandSec, Undeterred by Brexit, Makes New Bet on London Offices
Danske Says It’s Looking Into Selling Its Swedish Pension Assets
Chinese Group Agrees to Buy Amer Sports in $5.2 Billion Deal
Bad Air Warnings in London And Paris Peak With Fish And Chips
DXY- Typically rangebound trade in the run up to US labour data, and with markets also monitoring OPEC+ headlines as a decision on whether to cut output and if so by how much remains highly uncertain. The index is hovering just under the 97.000 handle within a 96.767-96.931 band, and well within nearest technical support and resistance levels at 96.300 and 97.311 respectively.
GBP- A marginal G10 underperformer as Cable retreats back below 1.2750 from just above 1.2800 at one stage, but this could be more flow-related rather than anything fundamental as EuGbp rallied towards 0.8930 peaks from just under the big figure into the Frankfurt fixing before drifting back again. However, Halifax house prices were much weaker than expected and latest Brexit news is hardly Sterling supportive given more speculation about delaying the meaningful vote to try and avoid a resounding rejection, even though the Government appears to be resolute and standing firm on December 11.
NZD/AUD- The Kiwi is at the opposite end of a relatively narrow Usd/Major spectrum, and like the Pound also impacted by indirect factors to a degree, if not in the main. Indeed, Nzd/Usd remains capped ahead of 0.6900, but Aud/Nzd is pivoting 1.0500 as the Aussie unit continues to feel the adverse effects of recent bearish impulses, namely softer than forecast Q3 GDP and a more dovish RBA via Debelle. Hence, Aud/Usd is softer between 0.7210-40 parameters and bound to be wary of huge option expiries from 0.7250-60 in 6.6 bn that form a formidable barrier ahead of circa 1.2 bn up at 0.7300.
EUJPY- In the pre-NFP ‘hiatus’ and awaiting anything further on the Italian budget front, option expiries may also exert directional impetus on EuUsd and Usd/Jpy, as the former faces 2+ bn at the 1.1400 strike and latter is flanked by 1+ bn at 112.50 and 113.00.
CAD- The Loonie has pared a bit more lost ground from recent lows, albeit partly due to a broad Usd retracement, eyeing OPEC and also Canada’s jobs report given latest BoC guidance indicating even greater data dependency. Usd/Cad currently just shy of the 1.3400 mark vs 1.3440+ at one stage yesterday.
In commodities, WTI (+0.2%) and Brent (+0.9%) are choppy in what was a volatile session thus far as comments from energy ministers emerged ahead of the key OPEC+ meeting, after yesterday’s OPEC talks ended with no deal for the first time in almost five years. Brent rose after source reports noted that Moscow are ready to cut output by 200k BPD (below OPEC’s desire of 250k-300k but above Russia’s prior “maximum” of 150k) if OPEC are willing to curb production by over 1mln BPD. Prices then fell to session lows following a less constructive tone from Saudi Energy Minister who reiterated that he is not confident there will be a deal today, which came after delegates noted that OPEC talks are focused on a combined OPEC+ cut of 1mln BPD (650k from OPEC and 350k from Non-OPEC). Markets are awaiting the start of the OPEC+ meeting after delegates stated that talks are at deadlocked as Iran appears to be the main sticking point to an OPEC deal, though sources emerged stating that Iran, Venezuela and Libya are set to get exemptions from cuts, adding that OPEC and Russia are looking for a symbolic production commitment from Iran as fears arise that Iran may not be able to follow-through on curb pledges due to US sanctions. In terms of metals, gold hovers around session highs and is set for the best week since August with the USD trading in a tight range ahead of the key US jobs data later today, while London copper rose over a percent is underpinned by the positive risk tone. US Event Calendar
8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 198,000, prior 250,000
Unemployment Rate, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%; Underemployment Rate, prior 7.4%
Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.1%
8:30am: Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.5, prior 34.5
10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97, prior 97.5; Current Conditions, prior 112.3; Expectations, prior 88.1
3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $15.0b, prior $10.9b
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The age of innocence has truly gone in financial markets after a turbulent 24 hours but one that saw a spectacular rally after Europe closed last night and one that has steadily carried on in Asia overnight (more on this below). Before we get to that I’m on an intense client marketing roadshow at the moment on the 2019 Credit outlook and there are a litany of worries out there from investors. Maybe I’m trying to be too cute here but I think the problems we’re seeing in credit at the moment are more of a “ghost of Xmas future” rather than a sign of an imminent disaster scenario. However my overall confidence that credit will blow up around the end of this cycle has only intensified in the last couple of weeks. Liquidity is awful in credit and it’s been a broken two way market for several years (probably as long as I’ve worked in it - 24 years). However this has got worse this cycle as the size of the market has grown rapidly but dealer balance sheets have reduced. As such you can buy massive size at new issue but your ability to sell in secondary is constrained to a small percentage of this. This didn’t matter much when inflows dominated - as they mostly did in this cycle pre-2018 - but in a year of outflows across the board the lack of a proper two way market is increasingly being felt. As discussed I don’t think this is the start of the crisis yet but be warned that when this economic cycle does roll over or even starts to operate at stall speed the credit market will be very messy and will influence other markets again. On the positive side and despite a very steep mid-session selloff, US markets ultimately closed well off the lows. The DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ finished -0.32%, -0.15% and +0.42% respectively, though they traded as low as -3.14%, -2.91%, and -2.43% respectively, around noon in New York. At its lows, the S&P 500 was on course for its worst two-session stretch since February, and before that you’d have to go back to August 2015 or 2011 to find the last episode with as steep a two-day drop. The DOW and S&P 500 dipped into negative territory for the year again, but clawed back and are now +0.92% and +0.84% YTD (+3.16% and +2.69% on a total return basis). The NASDAQ has clung to its outperformance, as it is now up +4.13% this year, or +5.20% on a total return basis, though of course the difference is narrower in the low-dividend paying, high-growth tech index. Unsurprisingly, the moves yesterday coincided with higher volatility with the VIX climbing as much as +5.2pts to 25.94 and pretty much back to the October highs, though it too rallied alongside the equity market to end close to flat at 21.15. Meanwhile, the price action was even uglier in Europe as the US lows were around the close. The STOXX 600 plunged -3.09% and is down -4.22% in two days – the most in two days since June 2016. Nowhere was safe. The DAX (-3.48%), CAC (-3.32%), FTSE MIB (-3.54%) and IBEX (-2.75%) all saw huge moves lower. The DAX has now joined the Italy’s FSTEMIB in bear market territory, as it is now -20.49% off its highs earlier this year. The FTSEMIB is down -24.04% from its highs. European Banks – which were already down nearly -27% YTD going into yesterday – tumbled -4.29% for the biggest daily fall since May and the third biggest since immediately after Brexit. The index is now at the lowest since October 2016 and within 17% of the June 2016 lows all of a sudden. US Banks fell -1.87%, though they had dipped -4.3% at their troughs to touch the lowest level since September 2017. As for credit, HY cash spreads in Europe and the US were +8.5bps and +14.8bps wider respectively. For context, US spreads are now at the widest since December 2016 and this is the best performing broad credit market over the last couple of years. In bond markets, 10y Treasuries rallied-2.4bps but was as much as 9bps lower intra-day. Thanks to an outperformance at the front end (two-year fell -3.7bps), the 2s10s curve actually ended a shade steeper at 13.0bps (+1.3bps on the day). However that move for the 10y now puts it at the lowest since September at 2.89%, and only +48.6bps above where we started the year. The spread on the Dec 19 to Dec 18 eurodollar contract – indicative for what is priced into Fed hikes for next year - is down to just 16bps. It was at 60bps in October. This certainly appears to be too low, though a Wall Street Journal article yesterday seemed to signal a willingness by the Fed to moderate its pace of rate hikes. Finally, in Europe, Bunds closed -4.1bps lower at 0.236%. Quite amazing moves with Bunds continuing to defy all fundamental logic and trading instead as a risk-off lightning rod. There was some talk that the sharp moves lower at the open yesterday were exaggerated by the unexpected midweek close for markets in the US which resulted in futures systems failing to be programmed to adjust and orders backing up. However the combination of a -2.25% drop for WTI (-5.2% at the lows) post the OPEC meeting (more below) and the Huawei story that we mentioned yesterday certainly aided to the initial malaise. There was some talk that both the Chinese and US authorities would have been aware of the arrest before last weekend’s talks and as such this story shouldn’t be necessarily a threat to the truce, though Reuters reported last night that President Trump did not know about the planned arrest. The implications of this are unclear, since it could mean that Trump has less direct control over the arresting agency, but it could also indicate that the move is not part of trade policy. Either way, how this development will be key for the market moving forward, especially any response from Chinese officials. This morning in Asia markets are largely trading higher with the Nikkei (+0.60%), Hang Seng (+0.21%), Shanghai Comp (+0.08%) and Kospi (+0.51%) all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.11%) are pointing towards a flattish start. Meantime crude oil (WTI -0.39% and Brent -0.60%) prices are continuing to trade lower this morning. It wouldn’t be an EMR worth it’s place in the daily schedule without an Italy and Brexit update. As we go to print Italian daily La Stampa has reported that the Italian Premier Conte and Deputy Premier Di Maio are in favour of the resignation of Finance Minister Tria while Deputy Premier Salvini is against his resignation. So signs of tension. In the U.K. a few press articles (like Bloomberg) are suggesting that PM May is considering postponing Tuesday’s big vote. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of substance to the story at the moment but it mentions going back to the EU for concessions on the Irish backstop as one possibility. How the EU will feel would be the obvious question. As mentioned earlier, oil had a difficult session yesterday, falling back to its recent lows with WTI touching a $50 handle and Brent trading back below $60 per barrel. The first day of the OPEC summit did not appear promising for the odds of a new production deal, as the ministers apparently discussed a 1 million barrel per day cut, below the 1.5 million needed to balance the market.The Libyan oil minister abruptly left before the day’s meetings concluded, and the organization canceled their scheduled press conference. The Russian delegation will join the OPEC contingent today in an effort to finalize a deal, but Saudi Energy Minister al-Falih said that “Russia is not ready for a substantial cut.” Watch this space today. Overnight, the Fed Chair Powell delivered an upbeat message on the US economy and the Job market ahead of today’s payrolls release. He said, “our economy is currently performing very well overall, with strong job creation and gradually rising wages,’’ while adding, “in fact, by many national-level measures, our labour market is very strong.’’ Elsewhere, the Fed’s John Williams said yesterday that the biggest challenge which the policy makers are facing is achieving a soft landing. He said, “we have a pretty strong economy -- unemployment pretty low, inflation near our goal -- it’s just managing a soft landing, keeping this expansion going for the next few years.” So will the last employment report released this year (the December report comes out in early January) help markets to continue to form a base? The consensus for nonfarm payrolls today is for a 198k print, following the stronger-thanexpected 250k reading last month. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom which should be enough to keep the annual reading at +3.1% yoy while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. Our US economists are more or less in line with the consensus with a 200k forecast and also expect earnings to climb +0.3% mom, however that would be consistent with a small tick up in the annual rate to +3.17% and the fastest pace since April 2009. They also expect the current pace of job growth to push the unemployment rate down to 3.6% which would be the lowest since December 1969. Going into that, yesterday’s ADP employment change report for November was a tad disappointing at 179k (vs. 195k expected) while more interestingly the recent tick up in initial jobless claims held with the print coming in at 231k. The four-week moving average is now 228k and the highest since April having gotten as low as 206k in September. So the climb, while not yet at concerning levels, is certainly notable and worth watching now on a week to week basis. As for the other interesting data points yesterday, the October trade deficit was confirmed as reaching a new cyclical wide. The ISM non-manufacturing print for November was a relative positive after coming in at 60.7, up 0.4pts from October and ahead of expectations for a decline to 59.0. Worth noting is that the three-month moving average of non-manufacturing ISM is now the highest on record which is a fairly reliable lead indicator for private nonfarm payrolls. US durable goods orders for October were revised slightly higher to -4.3% mom from -4.4%, though the core measures stayed at 0.0% mom. Factory orders declined -2.1% mom, though both were nevertheless higher year-on-year. As for the day ahead, the aforementioned November employment in the US will no doubt be front and centre, however, prior to that, we’ve October industrial production prints in Germany and France, along with Q3 labour costs in the former, and the final Q3 GDP revisions for the Euro Area (no change from +0.2% qoq second reading expected). We’ll also get the monthly inflation reporting for November in the UK. Also due out in the US is October wholesale inventories and trade sales, the preliminary December University of Michigan survey and October consumer credit. November foreign reserves data in China is also expected out at some point. Away from that the OPEC/OPEC+ meeting moves into the final day while the ECB’s Coeure and Fed’s Brainard are scheduled to speak. Today is also the day that Germany’s ruling CDU party elects a new chair to succeed Merkel. Our FX strategists noted yesterday that according to polls, the result should be a close call between general secretary Annegret Kramp-Karranbauer (AKK) and Friedrich Merz. Broadly speaking, AKK stands for a continuation of the Merkel-era strategy of positioning the CDU at the centre of the political spectrum, whereas Merz stands for a sharpening of the party's traditional profile as a centre-right party. Last night our German economics team put out a piece explaining the event and suggesting that Merz would be good for the DAX and AKK good for the Euro.
Max Liu rounds up the latest Brexit odds. "McDonnell said Labour would prefer a general election – something that’s [2.1] to happen before the UK leaves the EU and [3.55] to take place this year." That is to say, the gamblers think that Brexit with a deal is hugely more likely than a Hard Brexit. This seems totally optimistic to me, but betting odds are meant to be much smarter than mere Brexit Betting Odds. View all available outright and match odds, plus get news, tips, free bets and money-back offers. All you need to bet. If you want to know best brexit gambling odds, you need to best online sports betting sites for 2020. Also if you prefer betting with cryptocurrency, we have Crypto Sports Betting 2020 rating and best blockchain sports betting sites 2020 . Brexit is looming and whether it is hard or soft there is no arguing it is going to change the British business landscape more than anything else in a generation. One of the UK's biggest industries is gambling, per head our betting and gaming companies make more money than any other country in the world.
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